Array of blue light-emitting diodes and time-gated specialized camera is used to collect whole body image data from test mannequin (Courtesy Howard J. Walls/ Aerosol Control Group Lead, RTI International)
precisely and outcomes predicted; in Maximizing the Power the national security environment, variables are dynamic and complex, and outcomes are the product of emergent interactions among people, institutions, of Strategic Foresight and systems. The exact path of these interactions is inherently nonlinear and By Amy Zalman difficult to predict. The national security strategist is thus also in need of specialized thinking n order to develop plans and recom- skills to help him or her mentally model mend actions in support of strategic uncertainty and grasp the nonlinear and I goals, national security profession- complex pathways of change. These als need the ability to anticipate the thinking skills do not come naturally impacts of change in their external to the modern American military environment. The planner’s task is education system, which valorizes an Dr. Amy Zalman is CEO of Prescient, a complicated by the fact that from Enlightenment-inspired scientific ap- Washington, DC–based foresight consultancy. the vantage of the present, there are proach and has historically focused on She is also an Adjunct Professor in the Culture, Communications, and Technology Program at many possible impacts of change. In teaching critical thinking skills. Such Georgetown University. a laboratory, variables can be titrated skills are valuable when a problem is well
14 Forum / Maximizing the Power of Strategic Foresight JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 defined and it is possible to identify its What Is Strategic Foresight? Yet enthusiastic support, while component parts, evaluate evidence, and Strategic foresight is an interdisciplinary necessary, is not sufficient to create a generate solutions. However, they are not domain that draws on cybernetics and future-minded national security work- sufficiently robust to address situations systems thinking, management sciences, force. It is possible to use strategic that are as ambiguous, loosely bounded, sociology, data science, cognitive psy- foresight well or badly. In the national and complex as the possible futures of chology, and creative thinking, among security community today, there is room national security. others. Anticipatory thinking to support for improvement. Strategic foresight In contexts of uncertainty, another set decisionmaking is its essence. The indi- activities are often brought into class- of skills—those contained in the strategic vidual who invests time in learning how rooms and conference rooms in ways foresight toolkit—is required. Arguably, to think like a futurist emerges with an that are superficial. A quick exercise in this requirement is especially vital today: appreciation for the cognitive barriers scenario-building, for example, may give technological advancements and their faced by the human brain when it participants the satisfaction that they have unevenly distributed but powerful effects, attempts to envision the future and will engaged in strategic foresight. But when climate change, and social change are be well-practiced in holistic, synthetic, conducted superficially, such activities unfolding at a challenging pace in our in- analytic, and creative ways of thinking. typically become exercises in reinforcing terconnected global system. Black swans, Organizations that adopt foresight rather than challenging preexisting ideas cascading problems, and uncertainty practices to help them identify trends about what the future will be like. To be stemming from interconnections abound. at an early stage and adapt or innovate clear, superficiality is never intentional. The stakes are high for anticipating and to leverage those trends are in stronger Instead, urgent pressure to produce activ- planning effectively for the potential im- competitive positions than those that ities leads course or activity facilitators to pacts of change. do not. This value is demonstrable: A using frameworks and ideas that are the By way of example, imagine you recently completed longitudinal study easiest to access instead of those that are are a strategist in the 1970s seeking to of large European firms demonstrated the most appropriate. Popular ideas and understand the implications of the newly that those incorporating foresight into activities circulate through the national created Internet. Its early architects did their strategic planning realized signif- security educational community uncriti- not view Internet protocols as a potential icant gains in both profit and market cally, so that rough usage in one place is locus of national security threat because capitalization over the long term.2 replicated in another, and it is difficult to they assumed that small communities of Management science has revealed that get new thinking in the door. mutually trustworthy academics would systematically scanning the peripheral As the history of national security be the most likely users of the future environment for weak signals of change community engagement with foresight Internet. Critical thinking would not can help people and institutions prepare demonstrates, thinking creatively about assist you in generating scenarios of the for otherwise unexpected events.3 the future is a cultural challenge. Large possible futures of the Internet, let alone Foresight is not an unknown quantity bureaucracies, such as the Department of conceiving of it as the foundational infra- in the U.S. national security space, yet it Defense, are often resistant to change and structure of future human institutions. has waxed and waned as a discipline of to reckoning with the fact that conditions In open-ended situations such as the interest. Following sustained enthusiasm for success in the future may be differ- future of a new technology or institution, from the end of World War II through ent from those of today. Institutional systems thinking and frameworks to the early 1990s, interest languished as proclivities can shape and constrain the help structure imaginative and expansive the dramatic events of the moment—the imagination that is required to develop exploration of the implications of change fallout from the demise of the Soviet insights into the future of a profoundly are required. Strategic foresight supplies Union, the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 finan- complex, changing, and uncertain world. these frameworks. cial crisis—took center stage. Recently, To take one example, futurism is fre- This article makes a two-pronged strategic foresight has reappeared on quently presented in mainstream culture argument. First, strategic foresight, a dis- the radar. The growing number of con- as primarily associated with technological cipline I describe in more detail, provides ference sessions, professional education innovation. This is a narrow use of the the vitally needed mindsets and frame- opportunities, and pursuits such as sci- strategic foresight skillset; technology is works required to plan in uncertainty.1 ence fiction writing contests designed to only one of the drivers of complex social Strategic foresight should be taught trigger creative thinking about the future events such as war. When they assume, and used more widely in the national attest to this rise in interest. This is all rather than interrogate, a high-tech security space. Second, where foresight good news, and, hopefully, leaders in all future, military participants in strategic is being taught and used (it has recently relevant institutions will continue to grow foresight foreclose the opportunity to had an upswing in interest), there are their support for fostering successors who identify signals of change and devel- opportunities to improve its application are skilled at thinking both systematically opment across the spectrum of human and better serve planning staffs and and creatively about how to envision an activity. This has in the past led to insti- decisionmakers. uncertain future. tutional blindness to signals of change in
JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 Zalman 15 Paratrooper assigned to Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 508th Parachute Infantry Regiment, provides security outside subway tunnel at Fort A.P. Hill, Virginia, March 21, 2018 (U.S. Army) societies that might produce low-tech, of strategic foresight. To use the foresight foresight offers compelling frameworks asymmetric approaches to armed conflict. toolkit more comprehensively and effec- for asking these sorts of questions, and One of the key tenets of foresight is that tively, planners will also think deeply and the frameworks themselves are not it is imperative to explore not only the creatively about the possible, a much wider fancy or difficult to understand. This is most likely future but also a range of and more complex world of potential all the more reason why advancing the possible futures. It is in this arena where than that of simply the probable. This understanding of strategic foresight as a potential black swans lurk. is not easy; it takes intellectual rigor and discipline and a strategy support tool is The popular premise that future self-knowledge to explore trends that not only a good idea but also a clear and wars will take place in megacities (with may violate one’s institutional worldview. simple route to creating opportunities more than 10 million inhabitants) offers How could a war unfold in a nonurban for asking difficult questions about the another example of how a selective use area, especially in a world that is primarily potential future at a time when such of the tools of strategic foresight can urban? What assumptions are held today questions are critical. narrow strategic vision precisely where about what a city is and looks like? Will Strategic foresight functions best it would be useful to expand it. The other emergent realities—for example, as a normal, integrated element of an war-in-megacities scenario is grounded about the way people communicate and organization’s planning cycle. This cycle in trend information related to the urban work or about how climate change and will typically include horizon scanning growth. By some accounts, there will be weather evolve—change the ways that (also called environmental scanning) for at least 50 such cities by 2050.4 So it is cities develop in the future? early indicators of change, the integration reasonable to project that at some point, Venturing answers, however explor- of early signals into existing forecasts, warfighters will probably engage in a meg- atory, to questions that probe beyond impact assessments, and a decisionmaking acity. However, strategists who halt their the boundaries of current expectations process that uses insights of foresight to exploration of the future with scenarios could help reduce strategic surprise in the inform action. based on the extrapolations of current future and prompt innovative thinking Historically notable examples demon- trends alone are underutilizing the tools in advance of the unexpected. Strategic strate the power of this activity. The most
16 Forum / Maximizing the Power of Strategic Foresight JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 famous example is likely that of Royal to China, a country perceived to be bestselling book, Future Shock. These Dutch Shell—a common tool in the strong at long-term planning because ideas trickled into the executive offices foresight kit because of its pioneering it has a long history and a centrally of both government leaders and major use of scenarios. The oil industry his- controlled government.) This is clearly corporations. Long-range planning and torically forecast its future needs on the a discussion that deserves its own time the basic tenets of foresight were accom- presumption of steadily growing demand and place; what can be stated here is that panied by a spirit of openness and an and opportunities to locate supply. In military futurists have played a critical exploratory readiness to consider the po- the 1970s, Royal Dutch Shell recognized role in creating some of the foundational tential that more than one future might that geopolitical developments (such techniques and ideas of foresight, which emerge. At the same time, voices of warn- as the newly formed Organization of offer an alternative history of successful ing also called on political and military Petroleum Exporting Countries) could and thoughtful exploration of potential leaders to adapt U.S. planning processes lead to a serious disruption in oil supply, futures. It also helps to press into relief to a world that was becoming more com- transforming what was heretofore a some of the cultural tendencies that plex and interconnected. Projects such buyer’s market into a seller’s market. As a might have helped planners in the past as the Department of Defense Office of result of its readiness to take this scenario but that might be hindrances today. Net Assessment, which was established in seriously, the company was prepared for 1973 to assess the impact of converging the 1973 oil embargo and recovered with Historical Snapshot macro-trends, were attuned to the need greater speed than its industry peers.5 A quick survey of the history of strate- to assess complex environments. In the United States, the coordinated gic foresight as a coherent management Some of the most forceful notes of effort to prepare for potential disruptions planning discipline often begins with warning can be found in a 1987 volume related to the Y2K “bug” offers a power- the example of the U.S. Air Force. After titled Creating Strategic Vision: Long- ful example of the role strategic foresight World War II, under the direction of Range Planning for National Security.7 can play in raising awareness and address- Secretary Harold “Hap” Arnold, the This compilation of essays outlining ing potential crises. In 1998, the World Service took the first steps to connect the various techniques of strategic fore- Future Society (formerly a nonprofit U.S. military planning with long-term sight was offered as an antidote to the organization for futurists) began working scientific and technological develop- “pragmatic, fragmented, short-term” with the White House, United Nations ments. In order to organize resources tendencies that were presumed to char- coordination groups, and others to antic- and investments, Arnold commissioned acterize the American way of leadership.8 ipate and address potential Y2K issues in a major study titled Toward New Hori- Much of this critique from a generation the United States. Most of their efforts zons that projected future technology ago about the short-term nature of U.S. were in “real-time networking and swift needs for the Air Force. The planning strategy has become dogma today. When decisionmaking,” but the group also momentum was maintained by standing I introduced the work to a cohort of flag raised awareness in a 1998 conference up the Research and Development officers in an advanced training course on the consequences that could unfold Corporation, known today as RAND, recently, they readily warmed to the thesis without further attention.6 Failures of which became the military’s go-to think that the United States is inherently poor foresight are similarly dramatic, as the tank for long-term questions and also at long-term thinking and needs to do a many well-known anecdotes of corpora- the home of some of the country’s most better job. tions and retailers that failed to recognize prominent futurists during the Cold Also, in the late 1980s, the U.S. Army the potential impacts of technological and War. War College introduced a new course ti- cultural trends, such as online shopping This story of foresight’s foundations tled Futures: Creating Strategic Visions.9 or streaming video, attest. in the United States encapsulates the The goal of the course was to provide In the spirit of supporting this capac- spirit of the American brand of foresight: promising future leaders with the creative ity, the remainder of this article offers a a triumphal and empowered energy, a thinking skills required to envision and brief account of the role that foresight has focus on technology as the key critical communicate alternative futures in an ex- played in military planning, followed by driver of future events, and a positivist ecutive setting. Alternative futures, in this recommendations for advancing its im- outlook of the future as knowable and context, refers to a practice of indicating plementation in military education today. manageable. In the ensuing decades, that more than one future is possible and The history of foresight in the U.S. this foundational vision of the postwar that one’s own present-day decisions help national security environment is offered American future infused planning ac- to shape the future. The course was no- here to rebut the pervasive idea among tivities and also a particularly American table for stressing creativity as a teachable national security professionals that the mindset about how to think about “the skill and for proposing that the future United States cannot be good at long- future” in the abstract. may unfold in many possible ways. term strategy or planning. (This idea is In the 1970s, the ideas of previously And there the enthusiasm stops. often justified by reference to the United obscure futurists gained popularity, most There is little documentary evidence in States as a young country, as compared notably as a result of Alvin Toffler’s the 1990s of the creative, open-ended
JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 Zalman 17 energy that suffused futures work in the Five Recommendations surprise that “low-tech” cultures could 1980s. Indeed, the signs point in the to Maximize the Benefits use new media in sophisticated ways. opposite direction. The 2004 Strategic of Foresight An even more sophisticated step in Leadership Primer published by the Embrace Analytic Holism. The U.S. this arena will be for strategic foresight Department of Command, Leadership, military typically privileges technological projects to start acknowledging the fun- and Management of the Army War innovations as the key driver of the fu- damental transformations in the global College, while retaining the language ture, which reflects a deeply embedded economic, political, and social systems of strategic vision and the future, pres- tendency in American culture and history. being wrought by the ongoing evolution ents the concept quite differently than This is problematic in several directions, of digital technologies. As many com- it had in the 1980s.10 Drawing grimly all of which distort the ability to accu- mentators have noted, all of humanity is on President George W. Bush’s 2004 rately assess the evidence about potential in the first stages of a new era grounded remarks that the Nation’s “terrorist contexts of future conflict. in digital infrastructure.12 When techno- enemies have a vision,” the document First, technological change does logical innovations on this scale become calls for a countervailing one: an over- not take place in a vacuum, but at the ubiquitous and accepted, they actually arching summation of what “ought to intersection of other human institutions become less notable in themselves as be,” subject to the ends-ways-means and drivers of change. While there is a features of our world. Take, for example, logic of strategy creation and capable of need for pure technological forecasting in electricity. Although not everyone has being summarized in a pithy image or weapons development and other related electricity, its ubiquity is a critical expla- phrase—vision, in other words, as a tag- areas, this work will not generate sce- nandum of human behavior. The world line. Little could be further from the late narios of potential future conflict. It will is on the way to a digital ubiquity (even 1980s promotion of strategic vision as an only produce scenarios of future weapons though not everyone will have access empowering, adaptive capacity to think systems and other related technologies. to digital tools), and it is at the point of creatively and imagine alternative futures. Analytic holism is a concise directive ubiquity that nontechnological drivers A decade later, as the mood of crisis reminding participants in futures work to of change become vitally important to that permeated the “hot” years of the keep a wide range of drivers of change in explore in order to posit potential future war on terror waned, foresight activities mind. A traditional place to start is with environments. once again emerged into national security the drivers encapsulated in the acronym Rather than highlighting technolog- and Federal Government consciousness. STEEP—society, technology, environ- ical drivers of change and treating other Today, we can find a Federal Foresight ment, economics, politics. There are drivers as “soft” or less real, strategic community of interest sharing activities others, of course: cultures, demographics, foresight project leaders should frame across the government in the shape of media, and legal systems, to take a few explorations of the future holistically formal educational opportunities, such obvious examples. and with a strong eye to ways in which as the Army War College futures semi- Change in a complex, open system, people, collectively and individually, drive nar titled What Kind of Army Does the such as the international system, will emergent and unexpected system behav- Nation Need in 2035 and Beyond; the occur at the intersection of develop- ior. This nuanced approach can improve commitment to develop an entire course ments in these areas. War and conflict, as the accuracy of insights into potential on foresight at the Army Command and quintessentially social events, are always futures and potential surprises, even in General Staff College; and hands-on shaped by developments in these areas, high-tech battle space environments. long-term planning experiments such even when technology on the battlefield Adopt a Shared Lexicon Across the as the Air University’s Blue Horizons is of the essence. If planners do not look Government. Foresight terminology can program.11 Beyond formal education, at their surrounding environment as be confusing. Not only does it present there are forums such as the periodic holistically as they possibly can, they risk a number of terms of art that are also conferences and online community of not seeing or recognizing signals that present in our everyday language (such as the Mad Scientists, sponsored by the are eminently available for analysis and foresight, uncertainty, and prediction), but Army Training and Doctrine Command, thus losing the opportunity to consider there also are differences among futurists and various think tank conferences and how to avoid being surprised by them. and other disciplines in the ways they events. This upsurge of interest, coupled One sobering example from this century use these same words. While I might use with forays in different areas of the mili- should be the social media sophistication the word predict in a loose and general tary into more wargaming, red-teaming, of the planners of the al Qaeda attacks in sense to indicate my effort to explain my and activities structured according to 2001. If the national security community subjectively developed insights into how design theory, suggest that this is a fa- had been better prepared to see how, in the future might unfold (“Here’s how I vorable moment to advocate on behalf the 1980s and 1990s, satellite television predict the long-term impacts of negoti- of not simply quantity, but also higher and the advent of the Internet affected ations over the Arctic on both trade and quality. Here are five recommendations social interactions around the world, it culture,” for example), many practitioners for its achievement. could have reduced the unwarranted in the strategic foresight community use
18 Forum / Maximizing the Power of Strategic Foresight JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 Demographers project that more than 70 percent of world’s population will live in cities, many of them coastal, by 2050, and that potential for instability and strife caused by humanitarian or other disasters in megacities makes it necessary to look at them as potential future battlegrounds, Lagos, Nigeria, June 23, 2011 (Wikipedia) the concept of prediction to refer to the on the Internet for anyone’s reference.13 achieving success.14 Heifetz and Laurie narrow capacity to identify exactly what However, as a glance at the Singapore suggest that rather than offering solutions will happen, to a degree that is typically lexicon shows, such dictionaries are in such situations, leaders should galva- available only under strictly controlled reflections of the context and priorities nize adaptation to these new conditions experimental conditions. To add to this of their governments. A U.S. lexicon by safely exposing employees to the chal- difficulty, many terms are somewhat sim- may share terminology as it is used by lenges facing them and supporting the ilar in everyday usage (“forecasting the futurists around the world, but it will be a development of new behavioral models. weather” and “predicting the weather” more authoritative resource for American To this end, Heifetz and Laurie point to the same general idea for most professionals if it is composed with the encouraged leaders to learn not only to purposes). Similar lexical and conceptual United States in mind. Such a project view their organizations from the “field confusion abounds in the national secu- will engender other benefits as well; it of play,” where they are a part of the rity community and between different will create a clear point of reference for day-to-day work of their team, but also projects. developing institutional knowledge across to “get on the balcony.” From the rafters, A clear and relatively simple route to Services and agencies and, simplest of all, high above the game itself, leaders can see orienting defense practitioners around the introduction of conceptual clarity into not only competitors and the dynamics foresight work will be by developing the disparate activities by different actors. of doing business side by side with their an authoritative lexicon and educating “Get on the Balcony.” The title of this colleagues but also the larger dynamics people across the government to use it as recommendation borrows from the ad- of the system—how different parts of the a reference. Other dictionaries of terms vice offered in the 1990s by management organization work together, and how have been created—most notably by the strategists Ronald Heifetz and Donald they interact and intersect with the world government of Singapore, whose civil Laurie to corporations facing emerging beyond. Observations made from the bal- service does use the lexicon—and these business conditions requiring novel forms cony can provide powerful insights into and many other resources are available of behavior and new ways of defining and the dynamics of the wider system and
JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 Zalman 19 From left, August Cole, co-author of Ghost Fleet, Chuck Gannon, author of Trial by Fire, and Max Brooks, author of World War Z, talk with select group of burgeoning science fiction writers from across Department of Defense, February 4, 2019 (DOD/Kyle Olson) introduce opportunities to find “leverage to the sports teams that serve as models other actors, whether these are militaries, points . . . to intervene” in the system, for adaptive leadership in Heifetz and corporations, global nonprofits, or any of as the esteemed systems thinker Donella Laurie’s work, institutions whose work the other institutional actors who make Meadows characterized the opportu- is national defense tend to the see the up the world. nity.15 Strategic foresight education and world in terms of opposing teams. This Incorporate Complexity Thinking activities offer an appropriate venue for is reasonable; it is their job. The field of into Foresight Activities. Foresight and this exploratory way of seeing the world. play is the space from which members the study of complex systems arose from First, holistic vision and systems thinking of the institution seek to see threats and similar and even intertwined conceptual are intrinsic to foresight; only by seeking potential adversaries. movements in the 20th century, and signals of potential change throughout When the world and national situa- both futurists and complexity scientists the system, and beyond one’s typical do- tions are in flux, however, this view will draw inspiration from some of the same main, will one find the potential surprises not provide a sufficiently comprehensive people—for example, Jay Forrester and and opportunities that offer competitive view of the evolving system—in this case, Donella Meadows (and others), whose advantage. the global geopolitical, economic, and research used computer modeling in the This recommendation is especially social systems. Leaders who can “get on 1970s to explore the intricate relation- salient for leaders in the U.S. national the balcony” to view the larger context ships between such large-scale systems security community seeking to grapple of change will see the system from an as human societies and the planet’s with how to influence future events in the unusual vantage point that highlights ecological systems. The interdisciplinary emerging and not yet fully understood flows, connections, and feedback loops science that emerged in the late 1970s geopolitical circumstances of the 21st not only beyond but also between parts recognized that some systems cannot century and beyond. In a rough analogy of the U.S. defense establishment and be reduced to their component parts
20 Forum / Maximizing the Power of Strategic Foresight JFQ 95, 4th Quarter 2019 but rather are the result of small, simple is a habit of mind, a way of seeing the Firm Performance: A Longitudinal Analysis,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change actions whose interactions can produce world in such a way that we question our 129 (2018), 105–116, available at
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