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Five Strategic Foresight Tools to Enhance Business Model Innovation Teaching Journal of Business Models (2019), Vol. 7, No. 3, Five Strategic Foresight Tools to Enhance Business Model Innovation Teaching Matthew J. Spaniol1,2*, Christiana Bidmon1,2, Anna B. Holm1,2, René Rohrbeck1,2 Abstract We discuss our lessons from 8 years of teaching business model innovation to executives in our part-time MBA program. We ex- amine how strategic foresight tools are particularly useful to help students to overcome the cognitive bounds that inhibit business model innovation and discuss the considerations of using student- owned live cases. Keywords: Strategic foresight; business model innovation; MBA teaching; live cases; cognitive bounds Please cite this paper as: Spaniol et al. (2019), Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model innovation teaching, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 1-12 1 Department of Management, Aarhus BSS, Denmark 2 Strategic Foresight Research Network *Corresponding author Acknowledgements: Matthew J. Spaniol is supported by EU-Interreg PERISCOPE Project, Grant/Award Number: J-No.: 38-2-13-17. Journal of Business Models (2019), Vol. 7, No. 3, Introduction Research has established that business models must This paper reflects upon 8 years of teaching business be “changed, refined and innovated on a systematic model innovation (BMI) to executives in the part-time basis if companies aim to survive and stay competi- MBA program at Aarhus BSS. Executives who return tive over time” (Nielsen et al., 2019: 9) However, path to the classroom for part-time MBA education are dif- dependencies and lock-in effects make it difficult for ferent from other business school students. They have executives to detect the need to explore new business accumulated on-the-job experience, have gained in- models and implement the necessary changes in their depth knowledge of their industries, and thoroughly organizations (Tripsas and Gavetti, 2000; Chesbrough, comprehend the business models of their organiza- 2010; DaSilva and Trkman, 2014). For example, manag- tions (Garvin, 2007). For teachers, this provides oppor- ers fear negative consequences for their current busi- tunities for deeper discussions of the subject matter. nesses and are hesitant to move away from business For example, in our part-time MBA course on BMI, we models that still yield profitable returns (e.g. Ches- use live cases from students’ organizations to apply the brough, 2010; Günzel & Holm, 2013; Sosna, Trevinyo- lessons. These discussions are motivating and reward- Rodríguez, & Velamuri, 2010). Research on strategic ing for students. In fact, many students sign up for the decision-making, and strategic foresight in particular, course because they are concerned about the future has provided further explanations for the origin of such performance potential of their organizations’ business managerial resistance. Gavetti (2012) describes three models. However, teaching BMI to executives is not obstacles that managers must overcome to detect and without challenges. Having worked in their organiza- exploit new business opportunities: tions for years, such students have often developed hardened cognitive frames that make it challenging to • The rationality bound results from dominant rep- see how their business model could be different. “This resentations shared across an industry or sector: would never work in my organization” is a common Managers attend to the world around them and fail remark that teachers encounter. to recognize more distant and radically innovative business opportunities. In our teaching approach, we have therefore decided to • The plasticity bound results from inertia, which equip students with the tools and methods of strate- can have cognitive or physical roots: Firms might gic foresight to systematically reduce cognitive bounds fail to act on opportunities because they fail to see to BMI. Strategic foresight is particularly suitable for how they could, or they might lack the resources or this task, given its focus on learning, exploring uncer- capabilities to address a new opportunity. tainty, and decision making (Vecchiato, 2012; Rhisiart, • The shaping-ability bound describes the inability to Miller and Brooks, 2015). Strategic foresight provides a legitimize needed action: Managers fail to secure rich toolbox for identifying, observing, and interpreting, the necessary buy-in of stakeholders, such as board the factors that induce change; determining possible members or investors, on a new course of action. organization-specific implications; and triggering appro- priate responses (Voros, 2003; Rohrbeck, Battistella and Overcoming these bounds in the minds of our execu- Huizingh, 2015). Strategic foresight methods and pro- tive students motivates the curriculum design for the cesses are generally aimed at (1) identifying key factors BMI course at Aarhus BSS. In the following section, that drive change in an organization’s environment, (2) we describe our course’s structural setup and intro- simulating and understanding the impact of potential duce five strategic foresight methods that, in our futures, and (3) deriving actions that can improve an experience, have proven to be particularly helpful for organization’s long-term competitiveness. Examples of overcoming executives’ cognitive bounds to BMI. We strategic foresight methods include trend audits, sce- limit our discussion to these lesser-known tools, and, nario planning, backcasting, and roadmapping (Popper, to the likely dissatisfaction of many readers, make 2008; Gordon, 2010; Rohrbeck, 2013; Spaniol and Row- mere mention of the more established tools and land, 2019). By including such methods, we aim to over- techniques, such as dual BMs and BM roadmapping come executives’ cognitive bounds to BMI. (Markides and Charitou, 2004; De Reuver, Bouwman Journal of Business Models (2019), Vol. 7, No. 3, and Haaker, 2013). We conclude with a few reflections BM complete the first in-class module. Days 3 and 4 on the feasibility of our approach in other settings. are designed to expand the innovation toolbox and identify creative solutions for BM challenges. Here, we use additional SF tools, namely science fiction, design Course Context and Structure thinking, and forecasting future markets, to explain how to create quantitative estimates about market Our part-time MBA students are typically middle-level sizes in the future. On the last day, students learn how managers in their 40s preparing for upper-manage- to evaluate BMs, work with dual business models, and ment roles. The primary reason they choose the BMI prepare for implementation. Figure 1 below shows the course is the search for knowledge, approaches, and structure of the course. tools to solve strategic challenges and lead change efforts in their organizations. Consequently, our BMI On the first day of in-class teaching, the class is divided course is designed to achieve three core learning into groups of 4–6 students and each student is asked outcomes: (1) Being able to describe and assess any to describe their employing organizations’ business business model using systematic tools, (2) making model to the group. Students then select one group cognitive leaps towards novel business models, and (3) member’s organization to serve as the live case that ensuring transferability—that participants can select they will work on for the duration of the semester. from across a portfolio of tools and apply the appropri- Groups are checked to avoid that colleagues or stu- ate ones to overcome the three cognitive bounds and dents from competitor organizations are together and drive BMI in their organizations. to ensure a diversity of backgrounds. We ensure that the cases selected are neither those of CEOs – as they The BMI course is a semester-long elective that are already in highly bounded role – nor are those of includes in-class instruction modules at the beginning start-up organizations, because the cognitive bounds and end of the course. Each module lasts 2 days, and may not have been sufficiently hardened. The case class sizes range from 15 to 30 participants. Day 1 draws “owner” serves as an authority and proxy for applica- from Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010), supplemented tion simulation, and the information she or he provides with discussion on the importance of creating strong forms the platform for applying the methods and tools narratives about a company’s BM.[INSERT FOOTNOTE that the group members learn throughout the course. 1 HERE] Day 2 introduces, demonstrates, and has stu- It is within this particularly challenging environment of dents work with two strategic foresight (SF) tools, the student-owned live cases that the strategic foresight trend audit and stress test, to identify weaknesses in methods must overcome cognitive bounds, break away current business models. The principles of innovating from path dependency, and unstick cognitive inertia. Figure 1: Course structure Journal of Business Models (2019), Vol. 7, No. 3, The group must produce a report of no more than fif- of the project depends heavily on the suitability of the teen pages that consists of three parts: (1) A description live case. The main two criteria for choosing a case are and stress test of the current business model, (2) pro- that it has a medium level of complexity and that it posed innovations to the business model, and (3) a tran- is possible to identify a clear value proposition and sition plan for implementation. Students are provided customer(s). We prefer to include both for-profit and with a template to guide the project work
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