NACDS 2013 Annual Meeting
© 2013 Kantar Retail Specific, Relevant, Actionable Insight / Worldclass Speakers / Kantar Retail / Thought Leadership Grounded In Fact Copyright© 2013 Kantar Retail All Rights Reserved.
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Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kan- tar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion.
This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides. 2013 Participating Retailers
Ahold USA Medicine Shoppe International, Inc.
The Bartell Drug Company Navarro Discount Pharmacies
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. 99 Cents Only StoresOMNICARE, INC.
CARE Pharmacies Cooperative, Inc. Pharmaca Integrative Pharmacy
Chain Drug Consortium, LLC Rexall Pharma Plus
Costco Wholesale dba Costco Pharmacies Rite Aid Corporation
CVS Caremark Corporation Roundy’s Supermarkets, Inc.
Dollar General Corp. Safeway Inc. drugstore.com Sam’s Club
Family Dollar Stores Sav-On Drugs
Farmacia Guadalajara S.A. de C.V. Schnuck Markets, Inc.
Farmatodo, C.A. Sears Holdings Corporation
Fruth Pharmacy 7-Eleven, Inc.
Genoa Healthcare Holdings, LLC Shoppers Drug Mart Corporation
Good Neighbor Pharmacy SUPERVALU INC.
H-E-B Target
Hannaford Bros., Co. Thriftway/Zitomer Drug
Health Mart Thrifty White Pharmacy
Hi-School Pharmacy Services LLC Topco Associates LLC
Hy-Vee Inc. Ulta Beauty
Implozia Pharmacy Network Wakefern Food Corp./ShopRite
Kerr Drug, Inc. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
Kinney Drugs, Inc. Walgreen Co.
Lewis Drugs, Inc. Walgreens Boots Alliance Development GmbH
London Drugs Limited Wegmans Food Markets, Inc.
source: NACDS Retail Trends
Are you talking to your accounts about these? Do you have a strategy? Retailers are investing in store refurbishment, relocation, and acquisitions: Store portfolios- formats to address multiple shoppers rather than one store answering all needs Retailers are investing in multichannel: Apps, websites, QR codes, mobile Heightened focus on merchandising tactics: Creating and having relevant assortments; designing stores for shoppers rather than operations- enhanced use of elements like lighting, shelving, signage; segmentation of stores, shoppers Loyalty program developments to increase shopper engagement Health and Wellness plays an important role throughout the merchandising and store development process: Assortment implications, opportunities, multichannel opportunies Having a Successful Conference
Saturday Must Attend Events Attire • “Meet the Retailer” program Attire for all NACDS events is resort • Strategic Exchange Appointments casual- except for the NACDS Luncheon, dinner, • Inaugural Attendees Orientation and entertainment. Attire for the NACDS lunch- • Opening Celebration eon on Monday is dressy daywear for ladies and Sunday Must Attend Events business for men. Attire for the Board of Direc- • Business Program I tors reception and dinner on Tuesday is cocktail • Strategic Exchange Appointments for ladies and business for men. Monday Must Attend Events • NACDS Chain Members & PAC Breakfast (Chain members, PAC tickets holders, invited guests only) • Strategic Exchange Appointments • NACDS Luncheon (spouses/companions, a ticketed event) Tuesday Must Attend Events • Business Program II • Strategic Exchange Appointments • Board of Directors Reception & Dinner • Board of Directors Awards & Entertainment
source: NACDS Having a Successful Conference
Start early soliciting appointments – as much as three months in advance Develop a convincing proposition for each company as to why they will benefit from a meeting with you Establish an individually specific agenda for each meeting Make sure you have done your homework on the retailer - Check out their website and learn as much as you can about them Develop a “one pager” summarizing the important points about your company, your key products, your point of difference, and any performance matrices that set you apart from the competition Consider dropping an advance thank you for a planned meeting to remind the person of the appointment or an after-meeting thank you to recap what was accomplished Take notes and follow-up after the meeting – this may be your most critical success factor
source: NACDS source: NACDS Participating Drug Retailers Alliance Boots
Key Initiatives In Aug 2012: Walgreens acquired 45% stake in Alliance Boots. Merger has created the largest global pharmacy led H&B retailer as well as the largest pharmaceutical wholesaler Targeted procurement synergies amounting to $1 billion by 2016 (up from $100-150 million in 2012) Potential investments towards geo-expansion in continental Europe & emerging markets Best practice sharing from Walgreens around managing large scale supply chain and pharmacy cost optimization Expansion of its wholesale business through acquisitions in Europe and partnerships/joint ventures in Asia and Middle East Key Players Stefano Pessina- Executive Chairman Ornella Barra- Chief Executive, Pharmaceutical Wholesale Division Alex Gourlay- Chief Executive, Health & Beauty Division George Fairweather- Group Finance Director Gregory Wasson- President and Chief Executive Officer, Walgreens Robert Zimmerman- Senior Vice President & Chief Executive Officer, Walgreens Wade Miquelon- Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Walgreens
Stengths Weaknesses Increased negotiating power (procurement Perceived as a costlier (premium priced) brand as savings) as a result of the merger compared to Superdrug No.1 H&B retailer in the UK aided by: Over promotional–complicated/ complex Pharmacy-led business- high margin, footfalls Jaded marketing Multi-format footprint Store design – cramped Strong brand perception – private label Weak online business Synergies driven through wholesale and business manufacturing divisions- vertical integration Loyalty card (Advantage card)
Opportunities Threats Availability of more funds that can be channelled Increasing competition from grocers within towards international expansion beauty space Best practice sharing from Walgreens especially Declining average revenue per prescription (due around managing supply chain, big format stores, to lower reimbursement prices on generic drugs) and pharmacy cost optimisation can erode growth & margin Food business Loyalty card challenged by the launch of Super Services such as in-store surgeries drug ,Tesco, H&B range Manufacturing exports to international retailers Crowded UK market - Limited ability to expand (such as Target, Carrefour, etc.) core high margin pharmacy business due to legislative restrictions Alliance Boots
Sales & Store Forecasts Sales (current USD millions)
Ma rket Format Banner 2007 2012e 2017e Ireland Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 368.3 357.7 401.9 Italy Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 40.0 44.0 48.4 Netherlands Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 294.2 241.6 268.9 Norway Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 590.5 646.2 683.5 Russia Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 4.0 4.6 5.1 Thailand Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 94.1 149.4 186.8 UK Drug no prescriptions Boots 1,001.6 222.3 227.2 UK Drug with prescriptions Boots 10,635.5 7,152.7 7,634.7 UK Drug with prescriptions Your Local Boots Pharmacy 80.0 2,272.3 2,440.7 UK Online Retail boots.com 232.1 415.4 653.1 UK Other Category Specialist Boots Optician 367.1 514.3 625.9 UK Other Category Specialist D&A - 18.5 -
Store Forecasts
Ma rket Format Banner 2007 2012e 2017e Ireland Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 48 73 78 Italy Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 21 20 20 Netherlands Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 78 73 74 Norway Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 148 156 164 Russia Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 14 7 8 Thailand Drug with prescriptions Alliance Boots 141 218 264 UK Drug no prescriptions Boots 267 85 86 UK Drug with prescriptions Boots 2301 1410 1431 UK Drug with prescriptions Your Local Boots Pharmacy 50 990 1012 UK Other Category Specialist Boots Optician 142 576 655 UK Other Category Specialist D&A 50
Merchandising & Marketing
Analyzing card data In-store advan- drives loyalty and tage card readers frequency through promote prod- price promotions on ucts with reward products linked to loyalty points individual shoppers Bartell Drugs
Key Initiatives New, customer-friendly website introduced Convenient in-store health care awareness programs and services State of the art in-store and online digital services Commitment to community Environmental leadership Key Players George D. Bartell - Chairman and CEO Jean Bartell Barber - Vice-Chairman and CFO Retailer At-A-Glance Date Founded: 1890 Number of stores/Operating area: 58 stores located in Washington (King, Snohomish and Pierce counties) Ownership: Privately owned & operated by the Bartell family of Seattle. George D. Bartell, Chairman and CEO; Jean Bartell Barber, Vice-Chairman and CFO. Employees: 1,700 Employee Associates, all located in the Puget Sound region. Notable: The company has only had three presidents, all members of the Bartell family, spanning three centuries of operation. Website: Bartell Drugs introduced a completely redesigned website in January 2012. The easy-to-navigate site offers health & wellness resources, express prescription refills, digital photo orders, current sale and coupon offers, social media sharing and community involvement and store locator assistance. Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in USD, 07 - '12E 12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E millions CAGR CAGR
TOTAL USA 368 423.02 473.48 2.83% 2.28%
07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR TOTAL Bartell Drugs USA 56 58 61 0.70% 1.01% Merchandising & Marketing CVS
Key Initiatives Differentiating Front Store: Personalization featuring ExtraCare; myCVS store clustering; differentiating private brands; converting existing customers Driving Pharmacy Growth Through: WeCARE workflow and patient care excellence including pharmacist interventions to drive adherence and optimizing value of generics Growing Store Base & Building Growth Culture: Expand footprint, stores own sales to shift accountability for sales to the stores Key Players Larry Merlo- President and CEO, CVS Caremark David M. Denton- Executive VP and CFO, CVS Caremark Mark Cosby- Executive VP, CVS Caremark, President, CVS/Pharmacy Per Lofberg- Executive VP, CVS Caremark, President, Caremark Pharmacy Services Troyen Brennan, MD, MPH- Executive VP and Chief Medical Officer
Stengths Weaknesses ExtraCare loyalty card program Variance in store base Consumer-centric Inconsistent execution Open to new ideas and experimentation Mindshare shift – Caremark Format innovation Silo’d organization Acquisition and integration are core capabilities Less convenient real estate tha Walgreens Strong healthcare services portfolio: Caremark, High mix of sales from pharmacy MinuteClinic Share losses at acquired Online services and offerings Debt leverage
Opportunities Threats Increase use of loyalty card data Direct competition with Walgreens Store clustering initiative Intensifying competitive pressure from alternative Convenient health and beauty destination pharmacy formats (mass, grocery) Leverage MinuteClinic Growth of small box formats. Growth of Pharmacy Services Segment Changing the fill-in, top-up trip and further increase the need for differentiated destination Increased market share gains from Express branding Scripts/Walgreens dispute Regulatory and economic conditions Healthcare reform Acquisition of Drogaria Onofre CVS
Sales & Store Forecasts
'07 - '12E '12E - '17E Retail Sales (USD Billions) 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR CVS 44.92 63.1 81.59 7.03% 5.27% Longs - 0.49 0.58 - 3.43% Pharmacare 0.14 0.21 0.39 8.45% 13.18% TOTAL DRUGSTORE 45.07 63.8 82.55 7.20% 5.29% cvs.com 0.16 0.35 0.79 16.95% 17.68% TOTAL CVS USA 45.23 64.14 83.35 7.24% 5.38%
'07 - '17E '07 - '17E Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR CVS 6,245 7,435 8,122 3.5% 1.8% Longs - 50 55 - 1.9% Pharmacare 56 31 31 -11.2% 0.0% TOTAL US Stores 6,301 7,516 8,208 3.6% 1.8%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past Four Weeks by Monthly CVS/Pharmacy Shoppers
Total 883 CVS/Pharmacy 100% Staples 26% Amazon.com 58% Dollar General 26% Walmart Supercenter 53% Michaels 25% Target GM 41% Barnes & Noble 25% Kohl’s 40% eBay.com 25% The Home Depot 38% Netflix 23% Walgreens 38% Kmart/Big Kmart 23% Macy’s 35% Hallmark 23% Dollar Tree 34% Sears 22% Lowe’s 32% Costco 22% JCPenney 32% Trader Joe’s 22% Best Buy 32% Rite Aid 21% Bed Bath & Beyond 29% Old Navy 20% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape, Nov 2012 Kinney Drugs
Corporate Info Kinney Drugs is a leading pharmacy across New York State and Vermont. Kinney Drugs Value Card loyalty savings program Kinney Cares prescription savings plan Kinney Drugs is a leading pharmacy across New York State and Vermont. Commitment to community Environmental leadership
Key Players James Spencer- COO Kinney Drug Store Division Owen W. Halloran, R.Ph.- SVP of Pharmacy Michael Duteau, R.Ph.- VP of Pharmacy Procurement Operations Bridget-ann Hart, R.Ph.- President, Kinney Jeffrey A. Rorick- VP Information Services, CIO Healthcare Services John Dyer- General Manager Healthcare Services Wayne C. Jone- VP of MIS James R. Wuest- VP of Marketing Stephen P. McCoy- EVP, C.F.O Rich McNulty- VP of Human Resources David C. McClure- VP of Real Estate Rick Cognetti, Jr.- VP of Marketing and Craig Painter- C.E.O and Chairman of the Board Merchandising David Warner- President of ProAct Lew Kimball- VP of Corporate Asset Protection
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions 07 - '12E 12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E of US Dollar CAGR CAGR Kinney 653.23 821.82 1,011.58 4.7% 4.2%
07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Kinney 91 94 104 0.7% 2.0%
Merchandising & Marketing
Kinney Drugs Value Card loyalty savings program Kinney Cares prescription savings plan Pharmaca
Key Initiatives Prescription Services Professional Staff Professional Grade Supplements- i.e., Metagenics and Pure Encapsulation Natural Beauty- i.e., high-quality brands available like Jurlique, Jane Iredale, Dr. Hauschka and many other Compact for Safe Cosmetics signers Over-the-Counter MedicationsSustainable Philosophy- We believe that personal health is connected to environmental health. We ensure our stores are environmentally friendly by buying wind power offsets, installing recycled carpet and offering organic and sustainably harvested products. Key Players Mark Panzer- President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Kruteck- Chief Financial Officer Laura Coblentz- Vice President of Marketing and Innovation Stu Gratz- Vice President of Pharmacy Operations David Janowicz- Vice President of Merchandising Don Summerfield- Vice President of Integrative Medicine Allison Janda- Vice President of Retail Store Operations Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of US '07 - '12E '12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E Dollar CAGR CAGR Pharmaca 72.08 104.59 132.62 7.7% 4.9% TOTAL USA 72.08 104.59 132.62 7.7% 4.9%
07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Pharmaca 22 24 28 1.8% 3.1% TOTAL USA 22 24 28 1.8% 3.1%
Merchandising & Marketing Rexall
Key Initiatives Prescription Services Professional Staff Professional Grade Supplements- i.e., Metagenics and Pure Encapsulation Natural Beauty- i.e., high-quality brands available like Jurlique, Jane Iredale, Dr. Hauschka and many other Compact for Safe Cosmetics signers Over-the-Counter MedicationsSustainable Philosophy- We believe that personal health is connected to environmental health. We ensure our stores are environmentally friendly by buying wind power offsets, installing recycled carpet and offering organic and sustainably harvested products. Key Players Mark Panzer- President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Kruteck- Chief Financial Officer Laura Coblentz- Vice President of Marketing and Innovation Stu Gratz- Vice President of Pharmacy Operations David Janowicz- Vice President of Merchandising Don Summerfield- Vice President of Integrative Medicine Allison Janda- Vice President of Retail Store Operations
Stengths Weaknesses Experience in the market Varied store conditions Mail-order pharmacy Over-indexing on elderly shoppers Katz’s ProPharm Over-reliance on the pharmacy first proposition Trusted, community-oriented provider Under-development of higher margin and trip Rexall private label driving categories (beauty, food) Lacking loyalty card, underdeveloped customer data program Opportunities Threats Expand private label Regulation – margin pressure Further expand health services, role of the Increased competition from outside of channel pharmacist (e.g., Walmart, Loblaw, Target) Real estate acquisitions – broaden domestic Loss of relevance with younger shoppers presence eCommerce Advance customer insights Serving aging Boomers Rexall
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales (CND) Sales (CND Billions) CAGR Continent\Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E)
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Drug Trading $1.65 n/a n/a
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Medicine Shoppe $0.12 n/a n/a
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Pharmx Rexall $2.06 $2.97 $3.81 7.6% 5.1%
Store counts Stores CAGR Continent\Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E)
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Drug Trading 645 - - n/a n/a
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Medicine Shoppe 128 - - n/a n/a
North America\Canada Katz Group (The) Pharmx Rexall 670 900 1000 6.1% 2.1%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Past 4-Week Rexall/IDA/ Grocery/HBA Pharma Plus Shopper Penetration Total 10% Male 9%
Gender Female 10% 18-34 yrs 8% 35-54 yrs 9% Age 55+ yrs 12% <$35k 7% $35k-$79k 9%
Income $80k+ 14% Single 11% Married 12% Status Marital Featuring Air Miles Cash on end-cap Other 6% Rexall marketing its “Save $2” on Rx co-pay on Ontario New Be. better private label brand Source: TNS Compare and save with private label shelf tag Canada. Read as: of the male respondents, 9% shopped at Rexall/ IDA/PharmaPlus in the past 4 weeks Rite Aid Key Initiatives Growth of Wellness+ Investing in best-performing stores Continuing to find inefficiencies Expanding health care offering Improve customer service
Key Players John T. Standley- Chairman, President and CEO David Kelly- SVP, Store Development Ken Martindale- Senior EVP & COO John Learish- SVP, Marketing Frank Vitrano- Senior EVP, CFO & CAO Wilson A Lester, Jr- SVP, Supply Chain Tony Montini- EVP, Merchandising Daniel Miller- SVP, Pharmacy Operations Robert I. Thompson- EVP, Pharmacy Jon Olson- SVP, Merchandising Robert (Bob) K. Thompson- EVP, Store Operations Bill Bergin- Group Vice President, Category Christopher Hall- SVP, Pharmacy Services Management Susan Henderson- SVP & Chief Communications Ernie Richardsen- Group Vice President, Officer Pharmaceutical Purchasing and Clinical Services
Stengths Weaknesses Number three chain, leading East Coast presence Less convenient real-estate Seasoned mgmt team Lack #1 or #2 share in many markets Relationships with customers, Rx focus Sales productivity (FE & Rx) Health condition marketing platforms Weaker credit profile Collaborative vendor relationships Inconsistent operational execution Strategic partnerships with GNC, McKesson, Underdeveloped healthcare strategy, pricing and Lindora etc. promotional strategy Wellness store format Wellness+ Loyalty program Opportunities Threats Up-side opportunity to close sales and Exposure to economic, industry and competitive profitability gap with peers pressures Market share gains from the Express Scripts/ Pressure on Rx margins Walgreens split More direct and intense competition Mix of male and ethnic shoppers Failure to grow store base Wellness+ Loyalty Program Staffing – both front-end and pharmacy Retain shoppers gained during the Walgreens/ Failure to meet customer expectations Express Script dispute Low Rx volumes (further erosion) Wellness store remodels Mobile and Ecommerce expansion Rite Aid Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in billions '07 - '12E '12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E of US Dollar CAGR CAGR Rite Aid 26.44 25.18 26.4 -0.97% 0.95%
TOTAL USA 26.44 25.18 26.4 -0.97% 0.95% '07 - '12E '12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Rite Aid 5,059 4,609 4,525 -1.85% -0.37% TOTAL USA 5,059 4,609 4,525 -1.85% -0.37%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Rite Aid Shopper Cross-Shopping in Drug Channel (Q3 2012)
CVS/pharmacy 45%*
Walgreens 40%
Read as: 45% of Rite Aid shoppers also shop at CVS Top 5 Retailers Outside Drug Channel Cross- Shopped by Rite Aid Shoppers (Q3 2012) Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 64%*
Amazon.com 56%
Target/SuperTarget 50%
The Home Depot 39%
Dollar Tree 37% Read as: 64% of Rite Aid shoppers also shop at Walmart
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, July-September 2012 Shoppers Drug Mart Key Initiatives Pharmacy Front End Seniors Beauty Consolidation/Expansions Category Mgmt Long-term care/Specialty Promotion Optimization / Optimum Services- Scope of practice New Services
Key Players Domenic Pilla- President & Chief Executive Officer Paul Damiani- Executive Vice-President, Operations Dorian Lo- Executive Vice-President, Pharmacy and Healthcare Bradley Lukow- Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer Michael Motz- Chief Merchandising Officer Mary-Alice VuicicChief Administrative Officer & Executive Vice-President, Human Resources Frank Pedinelli- Senior Vice-President, Legal Affairs & General Counsel
Stengths Weaknesses Strong brand, loyal shopper base Value perception on consumables Broad store presence, convenience trip Supply chain and backroom problems on high Private label strength velocity SKUs, out-of-stocks Optimum loyalty card program High mix of sales from pharmacy Authority in high-end beauty, wellness Inconsistent store execution Merchandising, in-store aesthetics Opportunities Threats Geographic store growth (i.e. QC, BC) Reliance on Pharmacist operators in franchise Within channel competitors struggling – model may limit flexibility acquisition opportunity Rising competition (i.e., Walmart, Loblaw, Target) Further diversify formats – Simply Pharmacy, Added margin pressure from government Home Health Care, etc. regulations, drug reform Expand services – financial products, the role of Over-indexing on private label vs. national brands the Pharmacist at the expense of the basket, trip Serving the aging population Economic uncertainty, cautious consumers Ecommerce development, particularly for beauty Shoppers Drug Mart
Sales & Store Forecasts Sales Sales (CND Billions) CAGR Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E) Canada Drugstore no prescriptions Shoppers Home Health Care $0.48 $0.49 $0.52 0.3% 1.3%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Paragon Pharmacy $0.07 $0.08 n/a 3.4%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Pharmaprix $0.98 $1.42 $1.74 7.9% 4.1%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Shoppers Drug Mart $7.02 $8.39 $10.30 3.6% 4.2%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Shoppers Simply Pharmacy $0.44 $0.61 n/a 7.0%
Canada Health & Beauty Specialist Murale - $0.05 $0.05 n/a 2.4% Stores
Stores CAGR Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E)
Canada Drugstore no prescriptions Shoppers Home Health Care 64 62 62 -0.6% 0.0%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Paragon Pharmacy - 19 19 n/a 0.0%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Pharmaprix 129 180 202 6.9% 2.3%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Shoppers Drug Mart 928 1060 1106 2.7% 0.9%
Canada Drugstore with prescriptions Shoppers Simply Pharmacy - 55 74 n/a 6.1%
Canada Health & Beauty Specialist Murale - 6 6 n/a 0.0%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Past 4-Week Shoppers Grocery/HBA Drug Mart / Shopper Penetration PHARMAPR IX Total 43% Male 40% Female 45% Gender 18-35 yrs 40% 35-54 yrs 43%
Age 55 yrs 43% <%35k 33% $35k-$79k 43%
Income $80k+ 51% Single 39% Married 46%
Marital Status Other 41% Thrifty White Pharmacy
Corportate Info + Services Employee owned pharmacy operating in Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa Mission Statement:Long term assets: Our customer Our employee owners “We will operate in an We will provide for the health care needs of our customers through: environment where our Professional pharmacy services employees can learn, Quality products grow, and prosper” Unique and innovative practices Services Med Synch synchronizes prescription refill service Healthy Pack Rx organizes all scripts into individual packets labeled with all medications, date and time to be taken Ready Refill auto prescription refill service Medication Therapy Management Pet medications Photo printing Shopper rewards card Prescription savings club
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of '07 - '12E '12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E US Dollar CAGR CAGR Thrifty White 302.85 383.47 418.39 4.8% 1.8% TOTAL USA 302.85 383.47 418.39 4.8% 1.8% '07 - '12E '12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Thrifty White 68 83 87 4.1% 1.0% TOTAL USA 68 83 87 4.1% 1.0% Ulta
Key Initiatives Growth StrategyAccelerate pace of new store expansion – 1,200 store plan for the U.S. Expanded square footage by 16% in 2011 2011 comps of 10.9% Continue to expand offering with new products, services and brands Enhance loyalty program 9 million active members ULTAmate Rewards is the new program being rolled out Tailored one-on-one initiatives to customers Broaden marketing reach Increase focus on ULTA.com to support multichannel Key Players Chuck Rubin- President and Chief Executive Officer Scott Settersten- Chief Financial Officer & Assistant Secretary Robert S. Guttman- Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary Janet TaakeSenior- Vice President, Merchandising Cynthia PayneSenior- Vice President, Store Operations Vincent A. Scarfone- Senior Vice President, Human Resources Jeffrey Severts- Senior Vice President, Marketing Sales & Store Forecasts
07 - '12E 12E - '17E Sales in millions of US Dollar Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR
Health and Beauty Specialist Ulta 908.2 2102.3 3975.4 18.3% 13.6% Mail Order Ulta 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.9% 2.6% Online Retail ulta.com 2.2 8.4 29.0 29.2% 29.2% TOTAL USA 912.14 2,112.66 4,006.60 18.29% 13.66%
07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR
Health and Beauty Specialist Ulta 249 539 884 16.7% 10.4% TOTAL USA 249 539 884 16.7% 10.4% Walgreens Key Initiatives Delivering the Well Experience- Converting stores to the Well Experience, expanding flagship and food oasis stores, growing other mediums like mobile and online, expanding Balance Rewards Transforming Community Pharmacy- Expanding the role of pharmacists in healthcare, growing clinic services Creating an Unprecedented Global Platform- Leveraging Alliance Boots partnership, capitalizing on growing generic market and demand for health & wellbeing product Key Players Sona Chawla- President, E-Commerce Bryan Pugh- VP Well Experience Deployment, Merchandising team lead since Magnacca’s departure Graham Atkinson- SVP, Chief Customer Experience Officer, Leads Balance Rewards Wade Miquelon- EVP, CFO, President, International, Leads Value Creation Services and International Division, On Alliance Boots board of directors Robert Zimmerman- SVP of International & International Chief Administration Officer, Leads Global Mergers & Acquisitions “synergy team,” On Alliance Boots board of directors Stefano Pessina- Executive Chairman of Alliance Boots, Serves on Walgreens board of directors
Stengths Weaknesses Best-in-class real estate and systems Limited price or competitive differentiation Most convenient locations in U.S. In-store experience Dominant market share and iconic brand Limited tools, data, and processes for obtaining Trusted pharmacy shopper insights Industry-leading sales & asset productivity SKU intensive, low inventory turn front-end assortment Operational excellence Rx as proportion of sales (low margin) Healthy cash and balance sheet position Strong credit rating Opportunities Threats Aging of the population, growing demand for Slowing economy healthcare products and services Increasing unemployment Realignment of costs, cultures, and capabilities Declining script trends and utilization Format updates: Well Experience, food oasis, Small box hybrid formats flagship More direct competition from CVS Growth of E-Commerce Pressure on pharmacy reimbursement rates and Multi-channel retailing with mobile apps and Web pricing model (AMP/AWP) Pickup Shortage of qualified stores managers, Expansion into adjacent sectors of pharmacy and pharmacists, and nurse practitioners healthcare (specialty Rx) Loss of Express Scripts business Walgreens Sales & Store Forecasts
07 - '12E 12E - '17E Sales in millions of US Dollar 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR TOTAL Puerto Rico 1,390.00 2,023.58 2,794.96 7.8% 6.7%
US Drugstore with prescriptions 50,065.23 64,444.00 79,878.14 5.2% 4.4% Online Retail - 955.79 1,791.67 - 13.4% TOTAL USA 50,065.23 65,399.79 81,669.80 5.5% 4.5%
07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR TOTAL Puerto Rico 63 113 123 12.4% 1.7% TOTAL USA 5,809 7,821 8,840 6.1% 2.5%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data Participating Grocery Retailers Ahold USA
Key Initiatives Continue to grow market share by executing targeted initiatives by division Focused on enhancing price image by monitoring key value items, executing targeted price investments, and having a multi-variable pricing and promotions engine. Investing in private label portfolio Continue to refresh stores to improve the shopping experience. Growth of its Peapod, online business. Key Players James McCann- Ahold USA COO Don Sussman- New York Metro President Rick Herring- Giant Carlisle President Anthony Hucker- Giant Landover President Joe Kelly- New England President
Stengths Weaknesses Strong brand recognition High fixed cost investment per store (requires Strong real estate in valuable markets very high ROI) Share leader in core markets Poor performance and market share in peripheral markets High store productivity level Lack of clear differentiator Strong management skills Private label brands need continued development Increasingly competitive prices Balanced growth strategy at corporate level Use of in-store technology Opportunities Threats Continued expansion of Peapod Growing presence of low-price competitors (i.e., Partnership with EYC to build out shoppers Walmart) insights program Traditional and new channel competition (limited- Greater use of in-store technology assortment, warehouse clubs) Center store innovation programs Other retailers’ greater focus on health and wellness. Ahold USA
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of US Dollar 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR USA Convenience Giant to Go - 11 30 - - USA Online Grocery Peapod 329 503 751 8.9% 8.3% USA Supermarket Giant Food 3,802.62 5,144.00 6,431.00 6.2% 4.6% USA Supermarket Giant MD 4,854.64 5,554.00 6,147.00 2.7% 2.0% USA Supermarket Martins Foodstores (VA) 504.38 1,045.00 1,118.00 15.7% 1.4% USA Supermarket Stop & Shop 11,474.32 13,664.69 16,085.64 3.6% 3.3% USA TOTAL Supermarket 20,635.96 25,407.69 29,781.64 4.2% 3.2% TOTAL USA 20,964.96 25,921.69 30,562.64 4.3% 3.3% # of Stores 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR USA Convenience Giant to Go - 3 8 - - USA Online Grocery Peapod 0 0 0 USA Supermarket Giant Food 120 148 155 4.3% 0.9% USA Supermarket Giant MD 171 177 184 0.7% 0.8% USA Supermarket Martins Foodstores (VA) 25 52 52 15.8% 0.0% USA Supermarket Stop & Shop 389 404 418 0.8% 0.7% USA TOTAL Supermarket 705 781 809 2.1% 0.7% TOTAL USA 705 784 817 2.1% 0.8%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past 4 Weeks Monthly Ahold* Shoppers Total 3737 Ahold* 100% CVS/pharmacy 60% Amazon.com 55% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 54% Target/SuperTarget 50% The Home Depot 38% Kohl's 37% Staples 34% Macy's 34% Liquor/Wine Stores 30% Low e's 29% Walgreens 29% Best Buy 28% Barnes & Noble 27% JCPenney 27% Rite Aid 26% Dollar Tree 26% Bed Bath & Beyond 25% BJ's Wholesale Club 24% Hallmark 23% eBay.com 22% Trader Joe's 21% Michaels 20% Other traditional supermarket/grocery store retailer not listed here (e.g., Basha's, Tops) 20% Costco 20% ShopRite 19%
*includes Stop & Shop, Giant Foods Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Nov 2011 - Jan 2013 HEB
Key Initiatives Develop sophisticated marketing capabilities and a clearly defined brand. Capitalizing on emerging health & wellness trends within the grocery channel. Continue to push its value position through its “Compare our Prices to Anyone” campaign. Relying more on customer loyalty in the face of increased competition. Focusing on tailoring stores and product assortment by market. Key Players Charles Butt- CEO Martin Otto- CFO Craig Boyan- President & COO Scott McClelland- President, Houston/Central Market Division Suzanne Wade- President, San Antonio Food & Drug Division
Stengths Weaknesses Strong market share in Texas Consumer insight strategy under-developed at Market expertise operational levels Strong customer loyalty/brand recognition Capital constrained (not public) Strong presence in Hispanic segment Less transparency of company’s performance and operations International presence (stores in Mexico) Most stores in Texas– risk not spread out if Texas Privately owned faces downturn Willingness to experiment with new formats Culture of innovation Opportunities Threats Format expansion (Central Market, Plus!, Joe V) High levels of competition from highly skilled Increased penetration of Mexican market retailers Additional expansion within Texas Challenged to move from ethnic expertise to local expertise (e.g., in Mexico) Increasing price optimization capabilities HEB
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of US Dollar 07 - '12E '07 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR
USA Soft Discount Ltd Asst Grcy Joe Vs Smart Shop - 51.48 147.72 - - USA Supermarket Central Market 376.39 406.5 560.5 1.6% 6.6% USA Supermarket H-E-B 11,461.86 15,694.27 20,417.50 6.5% 5.4% USA Supermarket HEB Hybrid 66 310.4 362.9 36.3% 3.2% USA Supermarket HEB Plus 468 1,315.90 1,957.30 23.0% 8.3% USA Supermarket Mi Tienda 14.94 39.9 57.5 21.7% 7.6% USA Supermarket Pantry 255.52 - - - - USA TOTAL Supermarket 12,642.72 17,766.97 23,355.70 7.0% 5.6% TOTAL USA 12,642.72 17,818.46 23,503.42 7.1% 5.7% # of Stores 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR
USA Soft Discount Ltd Asst Grcy Joe Vs Smart Shop - 6 12 - - USA Supermarket Central Market 8 9 11 2.4% 4.1% USA Supermarket H-E-B 253 266 282 1.0% 1.2% USA Supermarket HEB Hybrid 3 7 7 18.5% 0.0% USA Supermarket HEB Plus 15 32 47 16.4% 8.0% USA Supermarket Mi Tienda 1 2 2 14.9% 0.0% USA Supermarket Pantry 9 - - - - USA TOTAL Supermarket 289 316 349 1.8% 2.0% TOTAL USA 289 322 361 2.2% 2.3%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past 4 Weeks Monthly HEB* Shoppers Total 2014 HEB* 100% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 77% Amazon.com 50% Walgreens 49% Target/SuperTarget 47% The Home Depot 38% CVS/pharmacy 34% Low e's 33% Dollar General 33% JCPenney 31% Kohl's 29% Best Buy 27% Sam's Club 27% Dollar Tree 26% Mac y 's 26% Family Dollar 24% Valero/Diamond Shamrock 24% Barnes & Noble 23% eBay.com 23% Office Depot 21% Bed Bath & Beyond 21% PetSmart 21% Netflix 20% Kroger/Kroger Marketplace/Kroger Fresh Fare 19% Sears 18% Shell 18%
*includes HEB,HEB Plus, Central Market Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Nov 2011 - Jan 2013 Hy-Vee
Key Initiatives Focus on its capital improvement plan which includes developing stores in new markets and renovating stores in existing locations. Reassert itself in certain categories in order to modernize and better fit its customer lifestyles. Private label will play a larger role in marketing its value proposition. Continue to grow its digital footprint by enhancing in-store technologies as well as grow its social media presence. Increase its health focus by participating in the “Healthiest State Initiative,” while providing services and programs that promote healthy living/healthy lifestyles. Key Players Jon Wendel- EVP West Division Randall Edeker- Chairman & CEO Tom Watson-EVP East Division Mike Skokan- CFO Jay Marshall- President of Marketing & Merch Ron Taylor- EVP North Division
Sales & Store Forecasts
07 - '12E 12 - '17E Sales in millions of US Dollar Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Drugstore with prescriptions Hy Vee 228.8 325.34 373.88 7.3% 2.8% Supermarket Hy Vee 5,371.20 7,031.28 8,381.78 5.5% 3.6% TOTAL USA 5,600.00 7,356.62 8,755.66 5.6% 3.5% 07 - '12E 12 - '17E # of Stores Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Drugstore with prescriptions Hy Vee 35 45 47 5.2% 0.9% Supermarket Hy Vee 197 218 230 2.0% 1.1% TOTAL USA 232 263 277 2.5% 1.0%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past 4 Weeks
Monthly HyVee Shoppers Total 2402 Hy -V ee 100% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 79% Target/SuperTarget 51% Amazon.com 50% Walgreens 49% Kohl's 41% JCPenney 36% Menard's 33% Dollar General 33% A LDI 27% Sam's Club 27% Best Buy 25% Kmart/Big Kmart 25% Dollar Tree 25% eBay.com 24% Low e's 23% QuikTrip 21% Barnes & Noble 21% The Home Depot 20% Hallmark 20% CVS/pharmacy 19% Netflix 16% Sears 16% Ace Hardw are 16% Personal Care/Beauty Retailers (e.g., Bath & Body Works, Sephora, The 15% Body Shop) Staples 15%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Nov 2011 - Jan 2013 Meijer
Key Initiatives Leveraging digital and online tools that allow Meijer to offer targeted deals and create a personalized shopping experience. Continue to develop strategies that help promote Meijer’s commitment to offering healthy living solutions for its shoppers. Grow its footprint in existing and new markets. Continue to experiment with social media to push marketing messages.
Key Players Hank Meijer- Co-Chairman & CEO Mark Murray- Co-CEO Jim Walsh- CFO J.K. Symancyk- President Janet Emerson- EVP of Retail Operations
Stengths Weaknesses Privately owned-longer term vision compared to Private ownership constrains capital availability publicly owned retailers Smaller company wields less leverage in global Strong brand recognition and loyal customer base sourcing than larger competitors like Walmart Strong track record of successful food operations Primary markets’ economies vulnerable to Prime real estate locations declining base of manufacturing jobs, including the US automakers Strong supply chain Meijer has a defined EDLP strategy, but has Will negotiate hard to get the right product at the multiple messages which may confuse shoppers right price Price leadership and strong value perception
Opportunities Threats Experimentation with destination departments Competitive environment: Walmart, Costco, Further improve price perception in the market Kroger Format experimentation and innovation Shopability: Not as convenient to navigate Develop health and wellness theme Undiversified business model Senior management interaction with other best- Operates unionized markets in-class privately owned grocers Losing share of wallet due to changing economic Shopper data mining conditions and trends away from stock up trips Known as a promotional supercenter which conflicts with edlp strategy. Meijer
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of US Dollar 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR USA Online Grocery meijer.com 2.8 52.37 111.72 79.6% 16.4% USA Supercenter Meijer 13,560.00 15,824.00 18,383.10 3.1% 3.0% TOTAL USA 13,562.80 15,876.37 18,494.82 3.2% 3.1% # of Stores 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Country Format Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR USA Online Grocery meijer.com 0 0 0 - - USA Supercenter Meijer 181 198 202 1.8% 0.4% TOTAL USA 181 198 202 1.8% 0.4%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past 4 Weeks Monthly Meijer Shoppers Total 2402 Meijer 100% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 62% Amazon.com 52% Kroger/KrogerKohl's 49% Marketplace/Kroger Fresh 49% Walgreens 45% Target/SuperTarget 45% JCPenney 36% Dollar Tree 33% Low e's 32% Best Buy 31% The Home Depot 31% CVS/pharmacy 30% Speedw ay 29% Sam's Club 29% Dollar General 28% A LDI 27% Macy's 27% eBay.com 26% Menard's 26% Kmart/Big Kmart 25% Bed Bath & Beyond 24% Barnes & Noble 24% Hallmark 24% Staples 22% Family Dollar 22%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Nov 2011 - Jan 2013 Safeway
Key Initiatives Develop a wellness platform aimed to grow ID sales and build Safeway’s brand. Expanding its fuel, loyalty program to enhance its value proposition. Continue to enhance its just for U digital saving platform to increase shopper loyalty. Re-inventing the Lifestyle format by adding new innovative, merchandising initiatives on top of newly designed marketing and promotions.
Key Players Steve Burd- Chairman & CEO (retiring May 2013-successor unknown) Robert Edwards- President Peter Bocian- EVP &CFO Diane Dietz- EVP Chief Marketing Officer
Stengths Weaknesses Significant market share in major markets Profitability issues Real estate (locations) and high percentage of Margins remain high stores are Lifestyle format Declines in traffic counts and basket size Strong Corporate Brands program No clear strategic response to current sales Financially minded challenges Blackhawk Network Fixed cost structure is high Social media/digital marketing competencies Centralized merchandising strategy Use of social media and digital marketing Expansion markets under-perform relative to chain Pricing Image Opportunities Threats Continued development of Optura• Price Competition from Walmart, Costco, Target, optimization Kroger, and more regional operators Alternative growth engines (Blackhawk, Safeway Competitors’ shopper insight programs Health) Questionable long-term commitment to value- Third-party distribution of private label items conscious shoppers Private label development that aligns with Labor disputes/talent retention shopper trends Continued high price perception amongst Continued expansion of online/digital platforms shoppers and growing online sales Continued expansion in health initiatives Safeway
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions of US Dollar 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Safeway Canada 5,253.44 5,411.92 5,699.31 0.6% 1.0% TOTAL Canada 5,253.44 5,411.92 5,699.31 0.6% 1.0% safeway.com 79.76 562.65 2,738.97 47.8% 37.2% Great Alaska Tobacco Company 16.78 17.98 18.84 1.4% 0.9% Oaken Keg 58.27 7.96 8.31 -32.8% 0.9% TOTAL Other Category Specialist 75.05 25.93 27.15 -19.1% 0.9% Carrs 348.26 374.85 393.97 1.5% 1.0% Dominicks 2,258.41 1,814.62 1,450.67 -4.3% -4.4% Eagle 166.87 174.28 183.17 0.9% 1.0% Genuardi 1,106.47 - - - - Pak n Save 207.18 223.34 239.17 1.5% 1.4% Pavilions 680.06 701.99 696.34 0.6% -0.2% Randalls Food Markets 1,326.02 1,232.49 1,194.68 -1.5% -0.6% Safeway 22,960.52 23,635.51 24,507.69 0.6% 0.7% The Market - 28.37 31.35 - 2.0% To m Thumb 1,616.70 1,707.87 1,765.17 1.1% 0.7% Vons 5,471.45 5,332.21 5,491.65 -0.5% 0.6% TOTAL Supermarket 36,141.94 35,225.53 35,953.84 -0.5% 0.4% TOTAL USA 36,296.75 35,814.11 38,719.96 -0.3% 1.6% # of Stores 07 - '12E 12 - '17E Banner 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Safeway Canada 222 222 219 0.0% -0.3% TOTAL Canada 222 222 219 0.0% -0.3% Great Alaska Tobacco Company 7 7 7 0.0% 0.0% Oaken Keg 8 1 1 -34.0% 0.0% TOTAL Other Category Specialist 15 8 8 -11.8% 0.0% Carrs 13 13 13 0.0% 0.0% Dominicks 82 64 53 -4.8% -3.7% Eagle 7 7 7 0.0% 0.0% Genuardi 42 - - - - Pak n Save 11 11 11 0.0% 0.0% Pavilions 30 31 29 0.7% -1.3% Randalls Food Markets 49 44 42 -2.1% -0.9% Safeway 943 919 917 -0.5% 0.0% The Market - 2 2 - 0.0% To m Thumb 63 66 65 0.9% -0.3% Vons 265 246 243 -1.5% -0.2% TOTAL Supermarket 1,505 1,403 1,382 -1.4% -0.3% TOTAL USA 1,520 1,411 1,390 -1.5% -0.3% Safeway
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past 4 Weeks Monthly Safeway* Shoppers Total 6273 Safew ay* 100% Amazon.com 56% Target/SuperTarget 54% Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 53% Cos tc o 42% Walgreens 41% The Home Depot 39% CVS/pharmacy 38% Kohl's 32% Mac y 's 32% Trader Joe's 31% JCPenney 29% Dollar Tree 29% Best Buy 27% Low e's 25% Bed Bath & Beyond 24% eBay.com 24% Barnes & Noble 24% Staples 23% Michaels 23% Albertsons 22% Rite Aid 22% Vons 21% Netflix 20% PetSmart 19% 7-Eleven 19%
*includes Safeway, Randalls, Dominick's, Tom Thumb, Vons Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Nov 2011 - Jan 2013 Schnucks
Key Initiatives Expansion via new store growth and single store acquisition Offering value added services, i.e., cooking school, special order service, fuel rewards, recipe ideas, etc. Offering full pharmacy services such as online refills, generic drugs, health screenings, immunizations In May 2012 it opened its first full-service standalone pharmacy on the site of the St. John’s Hospital in Springfield, Illinois “Piece of Mind Quality” initiative that highlights above standard food safety and quality guidelines pertaining to perishable categories Development and launch of Culinaria, hybrid urban grocery store combining an upscale experience and high end assortment with Schnucks pharmacy and HBA offer Key Players Scott C. Schnuck: Chairman of the Board and CEO Todd R. Schnuck: President and COO Mark J. Schnuck: VP Shopping Center Development Edwin H. Schnuck: Co-Founder Anna Donovan Schnuck: Co-Founder David Bell: CFO
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales in millions 07 - '12E 12E - '17E 2007 2012E 2017E of US Dollar CAGR CAGR schnucks.com 32.26 59.55 122.94 13.04% 15.60% Hilander - 143.64 247.73 - 12% Logli 258.1 267.39 280.75 0.71% 0.98% Schnucks 2,043.11 2,198.85 2,056.35 1.48% -1.33% TOTAL Supermarket 2,301.21 2,609.88 2,584.83 2.55% -0.19% TOTAL USA 2,333.47 2,669.43 2,707.77 2.73% 0.29% 07 - '12E 12E - '17E # of Stores 2007 2012E 2017E CAGR CAGR Hilander - 6 8 - 6% Logli 5 5 5 0.00% 0.00% Schnucks 99 98 86 -0.20% -2.58% TOTAL USA 104 109 99 0.94% -1.91% SuperValu
Key Initiatives On 10 January 2013, Supervalu announced that it had entered an agreement to sell five of its traditional retail banners to Cerberus affiliate AB Acquisition LLC for approximately USD 3.3 billion. Additionally, a Cerberus- led investor consortium called Symphony Investors will conduct a tender offer on up to 30% of Supervalu’s outstanding common stock. Details are below: Sale of Retail Banners The retail banners to be sold to AB Acquisition LLC include Albertsons, Acme, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s and Star Market along with associated Osco and Sav-On in store pharmacies. The Albertsons banner will be recombined with existing Cerberus owned Albertsons LLC. These five banners, covering 877 stores, will comprise the New Albertsons, Inc. (NAI) entity. Total size of the transaction is approximately 3.2 billion The transaction is expected to close the week of March 18, 2013 Sale of Retail Banners Upon completion of the sale, Supervalu will consist of its Independent Businesses segment, Save-A-Lot, and the Cub, Farm Fresh, Shoppers, Shop ‘n Save, and Hornbacher’s banners. The new Supervalu is expected to generate revenues of approximately USD 17 billion. Key Players Sam K. Duncan- Chief Executive Officer and President Michael Moore- Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer Janel S. Haugarth- President Independent Business and Business Optimization Santiago Roces- President and Chief Executive Officer Save-A-Lot Sherry M. Smith- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Kevin Holt- President, Supervalu Retail
Stengths Weaknesses National supply chain capabilities Long standing financial constraints Knowledge of distribution and logistics Poor price/value message Local market relevance Retail store systems integration Relatively stronger performance at Save-A-Lot HQ and divisional misalignment and Independent Businesses segment Criticism of senior management Greater store level autonomy Poor cash flow Opportunities Threats New technology & analytic tools for store Debt level remains high managers Strong competition (in and outside of channel) Growing private label sophistication expanding in key markets Ongoing “value transformation” efforts Inconsistent management across all levels of Actionable insights from Project THOR initiative operations Realigned senior management structure Continuing difficulties with execution Divestiture of assets should free up company to Disruptive management changes adversely impact internal culture focus on core business units SuperValu
Sales & Store Forecasts
The New Albertsons
The Remaining Supervalu
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Percent of U.S. Households Shopped Supervalu1: 12% Top 5 Retailers Outside Supermarket Channel Cross-Shopped by Supervalu1 Shoppers (Q3 2012) Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 61%* Amazon.com 54% Target/SuperTarget 53% Walgreens 49% CVS/pharmacy 42% *Read as: 61% of Supervalu1 shoppers also shop at Walmart Supervalu1 Shopper Cross-Shopping in Supermarket Channel (Q3 2012) Safeway2 34%* Kroger3 26% Trader Joe’s 24% Whole Foods 18% *Read as: 34% of Supervalu1 shoppers also shop at a Safeway banner 1Includes Acme, Albertsons, Jewel, and Shaw’s banners 2Includes Dominick’s, Randalls, Safeway, Tom Thumb , and Vons banners 3Includes Dillons, Fry’s, King Soopers, Kroger, QFC, Ralphs, and Smith’s banners Wakefern (PriceRite + ShopRite) Key Initiatives Wakefern is committed to providing entrepreneurs and independent retailers with the necessary tools to succeed in a competitive market. This goal is especially vital to the independent grocer today as it becomes increasingly difficult to compete with multi-national chains. Wakefern’s core values - integrity, innovation and teamwork - provide a strong foundation upon which the company has built its business. Key Players David Figurelli- President, ShopRite Joseph Colalillo- Chairman and CEO Supermarkets, Inc. Joseph Sheridan- President and COO Chris Lane- SVP, Non-Perishables Douglas Wille- CFO Bill Mayo- SVP, Perishables Neil Duffy- President, PriceRite Stengths Weaknesses Ownership model allows for a high level of Ownership model means in-store conditions can autonomy at the store vary widely by location Very price competitive Limited opportunities for partnering Stores have low operating expenses Promotional programs tend to be basic High velocity Execution can be an issue Strong brand clarity Coordination can be a challenge Divestiture of assets by competitors Opportunities Threats Glut of commercial real estate makes for Shopper base exposed to economic downturn favorable expansion environment Competition from multiple channels Tailoring assortment to local shopper base Operates in a crowded market Continued development of co-branding efforts Other value oriented, ethnic oriented retailers (e.g. Kashi)
Divestiture of assets by competitors Top 25 Food Retailers Shopped During Past 4 Weeks by Monthly ShopRite Shoppers Merchandising, Marketing. & Monthly ShopRite Shoppers Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Total 2,908 ShopRite 100% CVS/pharmacy 53% Target GM 47% Walgreens 34% Walmart Supercenter 34% Walmart 30% Rite Aid 30% Stop & Shop 30% Dollar Tree 29% BJ's Wholesale Club 25% Kmart/Big Kmart 22% Costco 22% Waw a 22% Trader Joe's 19% 7-Eleven 18% Family Dollar 18% Pathmark 17% Dollar General 17% Whole Foods Market 15% A&P 13% A LDI 13% Sam's Club 12% A c me 11% Big Lots 10% Wegmans 10% Giant Foods 7% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Oct 2011 – Dec 2012 Wegmans Key Initiatives Emphasize green and local initiatives by maintaining energy efficient stores and selling organic and eco- friendly products. Focus on value image by clearly communicating edlp and consistent prices to shoppers. Offer unique and exciting shopping experience through a European Open-Air Market format, SWAS concepts, wide-variety product mix, etc. Heightened-levels of customer and in-store services. Store growth opportunities in newly-entered and under developed markets. Key Players Danny Wegman- CEO Colleen Wegman- President
Stengths Weaknesses Strong local brand and loyal shoppers Stores not efficient to shop- huge footprint, hard People: empowered, well-trained staff to get in and out quickly Excellent customer service Slow overall navigation EDLP pricing strategy Marginalized center store categories Operating margin ~7.5% High prices on prepared gourmet foods Technology: supply chain, Web High volume per store: sales per square foot 50% higher than industry average Emphasis on innovation Opportunities Threats Roll out new ideas and test results to other stores Number of SKUs Expand culinary education program Price competition from Walmart Enhance wine and beer offering, educate High-end prepared food competition from Whole shoppers about wine and food pairings Foods Data-driven shopper insight strategy Macroeconomic uncertainty: EDLP relies on price stability Wegmans
Sales & Store Forecasts
Wakefern Sales (in USD millions) by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR PriceRite $ 1,230 $ 1,326 $ 1,407 $ 1,507 $ 1,604 $ 1,714 16.5% 6.9% ShopRite $12,370 $13,121 $13,842 $14,542 $15,200 $15,883 5.9% 5.1% shoprite.com $ 56 $ 80 $ 108 $ 140 $ 175 $ 216 36.7% 30.8% TOTAL $13,656 $14,527 $15,357 $16,189 $16,979 $17,813 6.70% 5.46%
Wakefern Stores by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR PriceRite 48 51 53 56 58 61 9.9% 4.9% ShopRite 252 256 261 267 271 275 3.9% 1.8% TOTAL 300 307 314 323 329 336 4.7% 2.3%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Shopped Retailer in the Past 4 Weeks Wegmans Total 1,620 Wegmans 100% Walmart 66% Amazon.com 57% Target 56% CVS/pharmacy 46% Rite Aid 32% Dollar Tree 32% Ahold 31% Walgreens 29% ALDI 24% Dollar General 24% BJ's Wholesale Club 24% Kmart/Big Kmart 22% Sam's Club 20% Costco 18% ShopRite 18% Family Dollar 18% Trader Joe's 17% 7-Eleven 16% Big Lots 15% Whole Foods Market 13% Safeway 11% Delhaize 8% Save-A-Lot 7% Supervalu 7% Shell 6% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape® October 2011 - December 2012 Participating Discount Retailers Dollar General Key Initiatives Category management Beer & wine Phase 5 expansion Private label expansion Cooler additions Zone pricing Tobacco Out-of-stock reduction
Key Players Richard W. Dreiling- Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board David M. Tehle- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer John W. Flanigan- Executive Vice President, Global Supply Chain Susan S. Lanigan- Executive Vice President, General Counsel Bob Ravener- Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer Gregory A. Sparks- Executive Vice President, Store Operations Todd Vasos- Executive Vice President, Division President and Chief Merchandising Officer Stengths Weaknesses Clear and easy to understand value proposition Rapid expansion puts pressure on supply chain Consistent traffic and basket growth via strategic Needs to build out capabilities around perishables focus on consumables (particularly edible distribution grocery) Lean in store labor model makes execution of Assortment concentrated on high velocity, need programs a challenge based items Still viewed as “emerging” by many suppliers Solution selling coupled with low levels of resource investment Low capital investment required for store base expansion E-commerce and social media platform Opportunities Threats Growing attention from middle and higher income Family Dollar is starting to gain speed as a real shoppers alternative Grocery-centric DG Market format has potential Increased competition from Walmart via its to make DG a primary outlet for shoppers Neighborhood Market format Expansion into new markets Growing inventory levels could disrupt supply Private label getting increasingly sophisticated chain Senior management’s contracts up for renewal soon Dollar General Sales & Store Forecasts Dollar General Sales (USD millions) by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR Dollar General $15,858 $17,277 $18,657 $20,033 $21,421 $22,849 11.2% 7.6% Dollar General Market $ 450 $ 659 $ 938 $ 1,257 $ 1,612 $ 2,005 21.7% 34.8% Dollar General Plus $ 168 $ 311 $ 497 $ 643 $ 813 $ 1,009 N/A 43.2% dollargeneral.com $ 90 $ 162 $ 235 $ 317 $ 396 $ 456 N/A 38.3% TOTAL $16,565 $18,408 $20,327 $22,250 $24,244 $26,319 11.8% 9.7%
Dollar General Stores by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR Dollar General 10,283 10,683 11,003 11,288 11,563 11,828 4.8% 2.8% Dollar General Market 109 159 214 274 339 409 13.8% 30.3% Dollar General Plus 125 165 210 260 315 375 N/A 24.6% TOTAL 10,517 11,007 11,427 11,822 12,217 12,612 5.1% 3.7%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Small Format Value Dollar All Shoppers Retailers General 12,069 4,328 1,812 Annual Household Income <$25K 26% 35% 37% $25K - $49.9K 25% 29% 32% $50K - $74.9K 18% 16% 15% $75K - $99.9K 11% 9% 7% $100K+ 20% 12% 9% Note: Dark highlighted cells indicate a significantly greater percentage vs. all shoppers Aug-12 Sep-12
Total 587 614 Job security of employed HH members Much better/somewhat better off 25% 27% No change from last year 53% 53% Somewhat worse/much worse off 22% 21% HH income level Much better/somewhat better off 28% 31% No change from last year 43% 40% Somewhat worse/much worse off 28% 29% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, Q3 (Jul-Sept2012); Aug-Sept 2012 Family Dollar
Key Initiatives Family Dollar defines its growth strategy around the following elements: Build customer loyalty and experience: Implementing a comprehensive store remodel program, a modified item assortment, and improved talent management Develop diverse, high-performing teams: Productivity improvement, new labor management tools, and enhanced training programs Deliver profitable sales growth: New stores in existing markets as well as entering new markets such as California; growing private label penetration Drive continuous improvement: Investing in new merchandising practices, core store processes, price optimization capabilities, shopper insights, and category management Key Players Barry Sullivan- EVP – Store Operations Howard R. Levine- Chairman of the Board CEO Kevin Boyanowski - SVP - Global Sourcing Michael K. Bloom- President and COO Bryan P. Causey- SVP – Logistics Paul G. White- EVP – Chief Merchandising Officer Tammy L. DeBoer- SVP- Food Mary A. Winston- EVP – Chief Financial Officer Holly Shaskey-Platek- SVP– Merchandising Charles S. Gibson, Jr.- EVP – Supply Chain John J. Scanlon- SVP - Hardlines
Stengths Weaknesses Clear and easy to understand value proposition Rapid expansion pressures supply chain Consistent traffic and basket growth via strategic Lean in store labor model makes execution of focus on consumables (particularly in HBA) programs a challenge Assortment concentrated on high velocity, need Still viewed as “emerging” by many suppliers based items coupled with low levels of resource investment Strong perishables distribution network via Consumables growth is dilutive to gross margin McLane partnership Lack of format diversity Newly invigorated corporate culture via enthusiastic senior management Opportunities Threats Growing attention from middle and higher income Dollar General remains the channel leader shoppers Increased competition from other small box Expansion into new markets retailers Private label getting increasingly sophisticated Increased competition from Walmart via its E-commerce platform Neighborhood Market format Continued growth of expertise around seasonal Growing inventory levels could disrupt supply selling chain More sophisticated digital marketing efforts from others Family Dollar
Sales & Store Forecasts
Family Dollar Sales (USD Billion) by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR Family Dollar $ 9.3 $ 10.4 $ 11.6 $ 13.0 $ 14.4 $ 16.0 6.4% 11.4%
Family Dollar Stores by Banner 07 - '12E 12E - '17E Banner 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E CAGR CAGR Family Dollar 7,442 7,852 8,267 8,685 9,093 9,504 3.0% 5.0%
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Q3 2012 Shopper All Primary Monthly Family Household Dollar Profile Shoppers Shoppers Age 18–24 5% 5% 25–34 17% 21% 35–44 18% 19% 45–54 21% 24% 55–64 18% 16% 65+ 20% 15% Household Income <$25K 26% 43% $25K–$49.9K 25% 30% $50K–$74.9K 18% 12% $75K–$99.9K 11% 7% $100K+ 20% 8% Presence of Own Children <18 in Household Yes 26% 32% No 74% 68%
Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, July-September 2012 Participating Mass Retailers Target
Key Initiatives Key Players PFresh Gregg Steinhafel- President & CEO 5% Rewards John Mulligan- EVP & CFO Target Canada Kathee Tesija- EVP Merchandising & Supply Chain CityTarget Tony Fisher- President, Target Canada Multichannel + mobile Jeff Jones- EVP & CMO
Stengths Weaknesses Strong brand & reputation for innovation Very narrow margin of error, small deviations Market positioning leader become expensive Strong popular exclusive/PL brands Planning calendar can limit ability to make last minute changes Good real estate Margin implications of growing food share, price Loyal core consumer with higher disposable comping, & 5% Rewards income vs. competitors OOS more problematic with lean inventory Clean stores, wide aisles, very shopable management Strongly coordinated social media campaign Multichannel integration is still very limited; no capabilities site-to-store yet Excellent reputation for charitable giving Shopper penetration continues to trend downward, signaling a shrinking base Opportunities Threats CityTarget format as the base for next wave of US Management transitions may lead to uncertainty expansion in urban areas on strategic continuity Target Canada begins international expansion, Markdown risks with rotational goods, possibility other countries later particularly if the trend is “missed“ New segmentation processes & tools to optimize Focus on “best” guests narrows base and assortment increases exposure to economic effects Improving shopper visit frequency via food, then Increasingly tight inventory potentially restrict pick up discretionary purchases sales and limit flexibility Capturing Millennial shoppers via mobile tools, OOS may frustrate shoppers who may dismiss social media, & other digital vehicles PFresh’s fill-in value proposition Developing greater multichannel integration Competitors are further along ideveloping site- to-store and e-commerce solutions Target
Sales & Store Forecasts
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Monthly Cross-Shopped Retailers
Walmart/Walmart Supercenter 50% Amazon.com 39% Walgreens 32% CVS/pharmacy 30% Kohl's 23% Trader Joe's/ALDI 22% Costco 22% Kroger¹ 21% Dollar Tree 20% The Home Depot 17% Safeway² 16% Sam's Club 16% Lowe's 15% eBay.com 13% Macy's 12% JCPenney 12% Dollar General 12% Rite Aid 11% SuperValu³ 11% Barnes & Noble 10% Bed Bath & Beyond 10% 7-Eleven 9% Best Buy 9% TJMaxx 9% Kmart/Big Kmart 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Walmart
Key Initiatives Execute Merchandising Strategy. drive productivity loop, redefine seamless access, market share-driven real estate strategy Net/net: Reinforcing the core, while advancing new growth opportunities (i.e., multi-channel, smaller box) Key Players Mike Duke - CEO, Walmart, Inc. Charles M. Holley - CFO, Walmart, Inc. Doug McMillon - CEO , Walmart International William Simon - Chief Executive, Walmart US Duncan Mac Naughton - Chief Merchandising Officer, Walmart US Stephen Quinn - Chief Marketer, Walmart US Gisel Ruiz -Chief Operator, Walmart US Cindy Davis - EVP of Global Consumer Insights Neil Ashe - President and CEO, Global eCommerce Stengths Weaknesses Scale and cash flow Historical over-reliance on new stores International format portfolio and expertise Long-term decline in general merchandise Relatively high shopping trip frequency category sales Market development and logistics model Over-reliance on the Supercenter’s one-stop, stock-up proposition, limits the retailer’s ability to Information technology serve other trip types effectively Systematic localization Vulnerability to negative publicity Organization model: measurement, rule-based, Inconsistent store experience collaboration with lead suppliers, and succession management and knowledge transfer Perception of its “fresh” grocery offering sometimes lags Experienced management Asset-intensiveness of international operations Insights capabilities Opportunities Threats Development of the Walmart brand, penetration Smarter competition on many fronts of higher-income shoppers Expanding competitors, including dollar, Aldi Increased international growth Pressure on loyalists from economic uncertainty, Neighborhood Market/ small box expansion and volatile gas prices and interest rates Utilizing global format expertise across Negative publicity and litigation / regulation Sustainability initiatives and influence Sourcing, developing, and retaining people Health care services, initiative expansions Loss of favor as the assortment and store Expanding credibility with consumers to sell in experiences shift back-and-forth more categories, and building cross-category Lack of alignment between online and in-store shopping management, operations Walmart.com and site-to-store integration Loss of perceived price leadership Develop multi-channel platforms Over-filling its mid- and high-share markets with Serving fill-in, quick trips Supercenters, unnecessarily cannibalizing sales Walmart
Sales & Store Forecasts Walmart US Retail Sales Sales (USD Billions) CAGR Continent\Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E) North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Amigo $0.60 $0.61 $0.62 0.5% 0.2% North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Walmart $0.42 $0.35 $0.37 -3.7% 0.8% North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Walmart Supercenter $0.50 $0.96 $1.36 14.0% 7.1% North America\USA Walmart Walmart Small Format n/a $0.10 $0.76 n/a 50.7% North America\USA Walmart Neighborhood Market $2.81 $4.74 $14.52 11.0% 25.1% North America\USA Walmart Supermercado de Walmart n/a $0.04 $0.04 n/a 1.1% North America\USA Walmart Walmart $46.72 $25.82 $12.31 -11.2% -13.8% North America\USA Walmart Walmart Supercenter $187.84 $235.62 $277.54 4.6% 3.3% North America\USA Walmart walmart.com $2.16 $5.14 $9.92 18.9% 14.1% ¹ Walmart Small Format Includes Marketside, Express, and On Campus Walmart US Store Count
Stores CAGR Continent\Country Retailer Banner (2007 - (2012E- 2007 2012E 2017E 2012E) 2017E) North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Amigo 31 26 25 -3.5% -0.8% North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Walmart 8 6 5 -5.6% -3.6% North America\Puerto Rico Walmart Walmart Supercenter 6 10 12 10.8% 3.7% North America\USA Walmart Walmart Small Format¹ - 15 98 n/a 45.6% North America\USA Walmart Neighborhood Market 132 247 687 13.4% 22.7% North America\USA Walmart Supermercado de Walmart - 2 2 n/a 0.0% North America\USA Walmart Walmart 971 545 254 -10.9% -14.2% North America\USA Walmart Walmart Supercenter 2,447 3,145 3,698 5.1% 3.3% ¹ Walmart Small Format Includes Marketside, Express, and On Campus
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Cross-Shopped by Walmart Shoppers (past four-week shoppers)
1 Amazon.com 48% 2 Target/SuperTarget 42% 3 Walgreens 39% 4 Dollar Tree 33% 5 CVS/pharmacy 32% 6 Kohl's 31% 7 Lowe's 31% 8 The Home Depot 31% 9 Dollar General 30% 10 JCPenney 30% 1 11 Kroger (all banners) 24% 12 Best Buy 23% 13 eBay.com 23% 14 Sam's Club 22% 15 Family Dollar 22% 16 Macy's 20% 17 Kmart/Big Kmart 20% 18 Barnes & Noble 19% 19 Bed Bath & Beyond 18% 20 Staples 18% 21 Sears 18% 22 Michaels 17% 23 PetSmart 17% 24 Big Lots 16% 25 Costco 15% 1Includes Dillon's, King Soopers, Kroger, QFC, Ralph's, and Smith's banners Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January-December 2012 Participating Club Retailers BJ’s Wholesale
Key Initiatives Competing more effectively with supermarkets through a more cost-effective, local and unique offer Better understanding and articulating BJ’s brand, while maintaining a box that is predominantly a house of brands Improving membership acquisition and retention through an enhanced club experience and offer
Key Players Laura Sen- President and CEO Robert Eddy- EVP and CFO Cornel Catuna- EVP, Club Operations Christina Neppl- EVP, Merchandising and Logistics
Stengths Weaknesses Consumables-driven traffic and share Low sales/club compared to Sam’s, Costco Strong regional presence across East Coast, Reliance on consumable SKUs notably in New England Value proposition and club experience less Consumer focus as channel differentiator dynamic, defensible Lack of discount grocers in its markets Lack of discipline – deviation from club model Strong promotional activity supports increased Private label with less equity than competitors awareness Real estate: Footprint challenges efficiencies
Opportunities Threats Talent development Member retention, first year and long-term Increasing leverage of membership margin US economy - Concentration of buildings in tough Optimizing private label portfolio housing markets Online site growth, social media penetration Extra SKUs, credit, and coupon costs Increased capital and scale via privatization Competition from local grocers, clubs Improved financial flexibility supports moderate Balancing financial model with strategies expansion, investment Lack of capital, scale relative to competitors Vendor partnering/insights, willingness to test Reliance upon merchandise margin BJ’s Wholesale
Sales & Store Forecasts
Banner Sales (USD, Billions)* 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E BJs 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 bjs.com 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
*US only, includes membership fee income
Number of Stores Banner 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E BJs 195 200 205 209 214 219 223 bjs.com 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top Retailers Shopped During Past 4 Weeks, Among Past 4-Week BJ's Shoppers
2012 Index Sample size 2822 Walmart / Walmart Supercenter 66% 93 Target / SuperTarget 53% 90 CVS/pharmacy 56% 109 The Home Depot 48% 98 Lowe's 39% 102 Kohl's 43% 112 Walgreens 39% 107 Best Buy 32% 90 JCPenney 32% 96 Staples 35% 105 Macy's 34% 104 Hallmark 34% 105 Amazon.com 56% 174 Bed Bath & Beyond 30% 92 Rite Aid 28% 96 Barnes & Noble 31% 108 Toys "R" Us 24% 93 eBay.com 26% 105 Michaels 25% 105 Stop & Shop 23% 98 Kmart/Big Kmart 25% 106 Dollar Tree 31% 180 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, January– December 2012 Costco
Key Initiatives International expansion, especially in Asia and Australia and extending to new markets like France Leveraging health and wellness, to appeal to its aging memberbase as well as its increasingly health conscious shoppers Maximizing the club experience to better attract, engage and retain members Turning more attention to Gen Y, especially ramping up digital strategy to maintain relevance with evolving member preferences, younger member appeals Key Players Craig Jelinek- President and CEO Richard Galanti- EVP and CFO James Murphy- EVP, International Douglas Schutt-EVP, Merchandising
Stengths Weaknesses Management continuity Management continuity Adherence to model Pace of decision-making Member loyalty/trust and resilience Information value chain management Commitment to members/employees Reliance on word of mouth American Express partnership Adherence to model Resilience across business cycles Next generation appeals and relevance Brand equity, experience and private brand Convenience in the traditional sense Opportunities Threats Co- and multi-vendor branding Exposure to West Coast given concentration New markets, including online Increasing competition, especially from online Margin enhancement via exclusives Changing sales mix to more consumables Going green Vulnerability to gas, FX Business focus Sam’s gaining brand strength Hispanic, Gen Y and more localized markets Efficiency management Collaboration on item innovation Growth of Kirkland Signature brand Refinement of promotional activity Memberbase potentially aging out of the box Costco
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales (Billions)* Continent\Country 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Asia\Japan 3.0 3.9 5.5 6.8 8.1 9.8 11.5 Asia\South Korea 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 Asia\Taiwan 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.5 3.0 Australasia\Australia 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Europe\France - - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 Europe\United Kingdom 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 North America\Canada 13.9 15.4 16.7 17.5 18.1 19.1 20.3 North America\Mexico 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 North America\Puerto Rico 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 North America\USA 64.2 71.0 77.2 83.7 90.7 98.0 106.0 *Includes membership fee income Number of Stores Continent\Country 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Asia\Japan 9 13 16 18 19 21 22 Asia\South Korea 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 Asia\Taiwan 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 Australasia\Australia 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 Europe\France - - - - 1 1 1 Europe\United Kingdom 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 North America\Canada 82 82 85 87 90 92 95 North America\Mexico 32 32 33 34 36 37 39 North America\Puerto Rico 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 North America\USA 425 435 446 457 469 479 490
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past Four Weeks by Monthly Costco Shoppers
Monthly Costco Shoppers Total 524 Costco 100% Amazon.com 59% Walmart Supercenter 51% Target GM 50% The Home Depot 46% CVS/pharmacy 42% Kohl's 42% Walgreens 41% Macy's 38% Best Buy 37% Lowe's 34% JCPenney 33% Bed Bath & Beyond 33% Netflix 32% Trader Joe's 32% Dollar Tree 30% Michaels 29% Staples 27% eBay.com 26% Barnes & Noble 25% Sears 23% Safeway 22% SuperTarget 22% Hallmark 21% Toys "R" Us 21% Apple 21% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, November 2012 Sam’s Club
Key Initiatives Leading in Digital, as the most tech- and digital-savvy of the clubs, Sam’s goal is get and stay ahead of the pack here Leveraging health and wellness and services, to appeal to aging and health conscious shoppers while maximizing its member value proposition Better engaging members, across platforms and boundaries by increasingly integrating online and mobile with the box Maximizing member insights, to better understand , attract, retain and appeal to club shoppers and prospective members Key Players Rosalind Brewer – President and CEO Charles Redfield, EVP, Merchandising Todd Harbaugh, EVP, Operations John Boswell, SVP Marketing, Member Insights, and eCommerce Michael Dastugue, SVP, CFO Don Frieson, SVP, Replenishment and Planning
Stengths Weaknesses Insights and analytics capabilities Low membership renewal, growth rates Walmart corporate oversight, resources Sales per club – asset productivity Digital platforms and capabilities SKU productivity performance Fresh leadership talent Confusion due to historical pendulum swings Aligned mission, clear go-to-market strategy between business & individual member focus Vendor collaboration Inconsistency of format locations, in-club presence, and sales volumes across US Openness to testing and implementing novel marketing and merchandising approaches Underdeveloped private brand equity Opportunities Threats Personalized promotions via Instant Savings Price perception versus key club competitors Expanded marketing efforts to build engagement, Competition from other channel retailers, such as especially via new media, H&W mass and online, esp. Amazon Sustainability as emotional connector and for Significant shopper overlap with Walmart added efficiencies Channel blurring in club packs with Walmart Growing private label penetration Newer senior leaders risk not foreseeing nuanced Format innovation to target specific subgroups challenges to implementing change “Gen Y” family formation = rising audience Growing private label penetration Straying too far from the club model Sam’s Club
Sales & Store Forecasts
Sales (USD, Billions)* Continent\Country 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Asia\China 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
North America\Mexico 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.9
North America\Puerto Rico 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
North America\USA 52.2 54.9 57.9 61.2 64.8 68.6 72.6
South America\Brazil 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
*Includes membership fee income
Number of Stores Continent\Country 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Asia\China 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 North America\Mexico 124 132 140 147 154 161 168 North America\Puerto Rico 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 North America\USA 599 608 620 631 641 650 659 South America\Brazil 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Merchandising, Marketing. & Kantar Retail ShopperScape® Data
Top 25 Retailers Shopped during Past Four Weeks by Monthly Sam's Club Shoppers
Monthly Sam's Club Shoppers Total 521 Sam's Club 100% Walmart Supercenter 77% Amazon.com 53% Walgreens 44% The Home Depot 43% Lowe's 43% Kohl's 41% Dollar Tree 37% Target GM 36% Strong and JCPenney 34% growing CVS/pharmacy 33% Best Buy 31% emphasis on Dollar General 31% driving value Macy's 25% including and Kroger/Kroger Marketplace/Kroger Fresh Fare 24% extending Bed Bath & Beyond 23% Big Lots 23% beyond price Staples 23% eBay.com 22% Michaels 22% PetSmart 22% Netflix 21% Sears 21% Barnes & Noble 21% Kmart/Big Kmart 21% ALDI 20% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, October 2012 Authors + Contributors
Jessica Campbell / Drug Retailers Bryan Gildenbert Analyst Chief Knowledge Officer [email protected] / 617.912.2874 [email protected] / 617.912.2862
Mike Pagalia / Supermarket + Value Retailers Senior Analyst [email protected] / 617.912.2855 Alida Destrempe / Supermarket Retailers Analyst [email protected] / 614.355.4030 Sara Al-Tukhaim / Club Retailers Principal Analyst [email protected] / 617.912.2859 Robin Sherk / Walmart Director, Retail Insights [email protected] / 212.896.8191 Amy Koo / Target Senior Analyst Kantar Retail [email protected] / 617.912.2872 501 Boylston Street, Suite 6101 Rachel McGuire/ Shopper Data Senior Analyst Boston, MA 02116 [email protected] / 614.355.4036 www.kantarretail.com Kate Senzamici/ Shopper Data www.kantarretailiQ.com Analyst T 617 912 2828 [email protected] / 617.912.2866 F 630 245 5647
Sources: Kantar Retail analysis, KRiQ, Kantar Retail ShopperScape® NACDS, company reports + material