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3319 Golf Digest Online 3319 Golf Digest Online Sponsored Research Sessa Investment Research June 22, 2020 First Look ‘Golf Links the World’ SUMMARY • GDO operates the recognized no.1 portal site specialized in golf, and it boasts the world’s largest online sales of golf gear, achieving consistent double-digit growth. However, the trend of high growth in profits was interrupted in mid-2018 when the company acquired a majority 60% stake in US GolfTEC Enterprises LLC, with net income dropping -46.1%, causing the share price to halve, remaining in that lower Focus Points: range since then. ‘Only one’ golf specialist online gear retail, course reservations • In this First Look Report, we examine 3 key questions for the company. ① If the and media platform operator outlook for the number of golfers over the medium-term is a slight but steady entering a new growth phase decline due to demographic factors, won’t the company’s Japan business peak out soon? ② What is the opportunity sought by taking on the risk of acquiring a Key Indicators majority stake of a company making losses? Now that GolfTEC Enterprises Share price (6/22) 558 ③ YH (20/2/14) 707 (hereinafter GTE) is turning the corner on profitability, what is the expected time YL (20/4/6) 414 horizon for GTE to make a meaningful contribution to GDO profits? 10YH (18/6/4) 1,500 • Regarding question ①, the short answer is no, for two reasons. A leading indicator 10YL (12/10/16) 70.4 for Japan business is the number of GDO Club members, which has achieved Shrs out. (mn shrs) 18.274 consistent growth of +10% CAGR to 4.1mn at the end of 2019. Over the last 5 years, Mkt cap (¥ bn) 10.20 EV (¥ bn) 12.98 online sales of golf gear grew at +9.5% CAGR, and online course reservations, the Shr equity ratio 32.3% highest margin business, grew at +12.7% CAGR. Going forward, the driver for net FY12/19 P/E (act) 28.4x sales is the steady rise in the EC ratio, at the expense of brick-and mortar chains, FY12/19 EV/EBITDA 5.3x and the OP driver is controlling SG&A, sustaining higher sales on the same cost base. FY12/19 P/B (act) 1.61x • Regarding question , while Japan business is set to continue growing for the FY12/19 DY (act) 1.7% ② foreseeable future, at some point GDO’s market share will reach saturation, and Share price/vol 52 weeks growth will slow. The US is attractive as the largest golf market in the world, but there was no rational path forward for acquiring a lasting foothold in the US market with GDO’s existing portfolio. GTE’s core business has had continued high growth, however profits were temporarily depressed in recent years in the wake of the collapse of Golfsmith, a golf specialty megastore chain with strength in customized clubs, forcing GTE to scramble to find new locations for a portion of its studios. Source: SPEEDA • Having obtained the master franchise for GOLFTEC Japan, GDO has steadily opened Chris Schreiber CFA new studios since 2012, and has high confidence in the viability of the business and Company Specialist strength of the proprietary technology. GDO already had an 8% stake since 2016, so [email protected] when asked about a potential new round of financing, GDO responded it wanted to obtain a majority stake. During FY12/19, GTE turned into the black before goodwill, and GDO’s FCF turned positive. • Regarding question ③, GDO is planning to announce a new MTP later this year, delayed due to adjustments for coronavirus. While the company cannot comment on specific details to be included such as numerical targets etc., the purpose of establishing an MTP in the first place is to lay out a roadmap for initiatives to grow the business and improve profitability, so we believe there is a strong chance this may provide the next share price catalyst. This report was prepared by Sessa Partners on behalf of Golf Digest Online Inc. Please refer to the legal disclaimer at the end for details. 1 Golf Digest Online Sessa Investment Research GDO Consolidated Financial Highlights at a Glance JPY mn, % FY12/15 YoY FY12/16 YoY FY12/17 YoY FY12/18 YoY FY12/19 YoY act % act % act % act* % act % Net Sales 18,047 12.6 19,309 7.0 21,574 11.7 26,739 23.9 34,274 28.2 by segment • Japan 18,047 12.6 19,309 7.0 21,574 11.7 25,245 17.0 26,842 6.3 • Overseas －－－ 1,495 － 7,432 397.3 breakdown (% total) • Japan 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 94.4% 78.3% • Overseas －－－ 5.6% 21.7% by business • RETAIL (online gear sales) 12,450 12.8 13,367 7.4 14,081 5.3 16,301 15.8 17,354 6.5 • COURSE (play reservations) 4,715 14.8 5,106 8.3 5,806 13.7 6,929 19.3 7,475 7.9 • MEDIA (news content, ad sales) 812 2.0 811 (0.2) 874 7.7 971 11.1 846 (12.9) • LESSONS (plus club fitting/sales) －－ 800 2,530 216.2 8,597 239.9 breakdown (% total) • RETAIL (online gear sales) 69.0% 69.2% 65.3% 61.0% 50.6% • COURSE (play reservations) 26.1% 26.4% 26.9% 25.9% 21.8% • MEDIA (news content, ad sales) 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 2.5% • LESSONS (plus club fitting/sales) －－ 3.7% 9.5% 25.1% Gross Profit 7,372 13.4 8,012 8.7 8,850 10.5 10,475 18.4 13,656 30.4 ratio to sales (%) 40.9% 41.5% 41.0% 39.2% 39.8% SG&A Expenses 6,544 8.0 6,939 6.0 7,636 10.0 9,671 26.6 12,677 31.1 ratio to sales (%) 36.3% 35.9% 35.4% 36.2% 37.0% EBITDA 1,458 36.9 1,577 8.2 1,645 4.3 1,537 (6.6) 2,469 60.6 ratio to sales (%) 8.1% 8.2% 7.6% 5.7% 7.2% • Japan 1,458 36.9 1,577 8.2 1,645 4.3 1,876 14.0 2,057 9.6 • Overseas －－－ (338) 412 Operating Profit 828 86.7 1,073 29.6 1,214 13.1 805 (33.7) 979 21.7 ratio to sales (%) 4.6% 5.6% 5.6% 3.0% 2.9% • Japan 828 86.7 1,073 29.6 1,337 24.6 1,387 3.7 1,535 10.7 • Overseas －－ (123) (582) (556) Ordinary Profit 816 86.7 1,089 33.4 1,226 12.5 823 (32.9) 972 18.1 Profit Before Income Taxes 768 82.1 1,009 31.4 1,127 11.7 765 (32.1) 786 2.7 Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent 430 138.3 611 42.0 707 15.7 381 (46.1) 359 (5.8) *Raising stake in GolfTEC Enterprises LLC from 8% → 60% was completed on July 2, 2018 (3Q), and its P/L was included in the scope of consolidation from 4Q (Oct-Dec) 2018. B/S, CF, and key financial indicators FY12/15 FY12/16 FY12/17 FY12/18 FY12/19 JPY mn, % act act act act* act Total Assets 9,174 8,712 10,806 18,237 19,565 Cash and Deposits 2,841 1,509 1,534 1,701 1,997 ST Loans Payable 1,000 － 950 2,435 3,446 Current Portion of LT Loans Payable －－－ 667 667 LT Loans Payable －－－ 1,335 667 Total Interest-Bearing Debt 1,000 0 950 4,437 4,780 Net Assets 4,882 5,417 6,020 6,207 6,316 Equity ratio (%) 53.2% 62.2% 55.7% 34.0% 32.3% Current ratio (%) 171.7% 197.7% 171.2% 94.4% 89.2% Net D/E ratio (x) (0.38) (0.28) (0.10) 0.44 0.44 ROA (%) 10.1% 12.2% 12.6% 5.7% 5.1% ROE (%) 12.3% 11.9% 12.4% 6.2% 5.7% CF from Operating Activities 1,861 756 435 442 2,124 CF from Investing Activities (720) (994) (1,255) (3,527) (1,953) FCF 1,140 (238) (820) (3,084) 171 CF from Financing Activities 998 (1,095) 845 3,236 129 Shares Outstanding (000) 17,747 18,053 18,274 18,274 18,274 Avg. Shares Outstanding (000) 16,054 17,893 18,256 18,274 18,274 Basic EPS (¥) 26.80 34.16 38.73 20.84 19.63 DPS (¥) 5.50 7.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 Payout Ratio (%) 20.5% 20.5% 23.2% 45.6% 48.4% BPS (¥) 274.97 299.96 329.34 339.69 345.61 Source: compiled by Sessa Partners from TANSHIN financial statements, results briefing materials and GDO Fact Book. Figures reported in thousand yen are rounded to the nearest million yen. Golf Digest Online Sessa Investment Research Introduction to GDO’s 4 main business lines in Japan: at the core is ‘only one’ GDO golf specialist portal site Used clubs etc. (5) Golf Gear RETAIL Online Sales ❶ Database News and other content attract site visitors PC and mobile ❸ ❷ MEDIA COURSE SCHOOL ❹ On-Site Ad Online Tee Time Lessons, Club Placement Bookings Fitting & Sales Golf Digest Online Inc. iPhone apps GDO Score Golf Course Cheap golf play ticket GDO Golf Course Easy My GOLFTEC Reservations sales HOT PRICE Golf SHOP Phone Reservations by GDO Highly effective and scalable business model: self-reinforcing ecosystem based on IT iPad/iPhone app around core media specialized in all things golf GDO was established in May-2000 at the height of the ‘dot.com’ internet bubble.
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