http://www.esrahomepage.eu September 2017

Editorial has been part of the ESRA community for over 10 years, attending all ESREL conferences since 2007 and serving as a co-chair of the ESRA technical committee on uncertainty analysis since 2016. His professional career has been spent both in industry/consulting and in academia, two of the key domains of the ESRA Terje Aven member base. Both his education as well as his past ESRA Chairman and current research interests cover the core of and the University of Stavanger main topical pillars on which ESRA is built, namely risk, safety and reliability. He has considerable experience also from administrative positions and activities, ranging from committee work to project management to study programme development. We welcome Roger to the Board of ESRA. I am confident that he will do a great job, with his strong Dear ESRA Colleagues, background and personal qualities. I know he is eager to contribute further to the continued operation and The ESREL 2017 conference in Portorož, development of ESRA. As the General Secretary he , 18-22 June is over. It was a great success. will ensure a smooth transfer of ESRA information and The scientific program was strong, with many experience to new members of the Board in 2018. interesting presentations and discussions, and as always, the ESREL conference is an important With kind regards, meeting place. The General Chair of the conference, Marko Cepin and his staff can now relax - an impressive work they have done. We are grateful. We Terje Aven applaud them for all their efforts, ranging from the Chairman of ESRA program content, to wonderful food and scenery, to elegant ESREL design details. For pictures from the conference, see esrel2017.org. The General Assembly Meeting (GAM) elected the venue for the ESREL 2019 conference. It will be in Hannover, , September 22-26, 2019. Professor Michael Beer will be the General Chair of Dr. Roger Flage the conference. Congratulations Hannover and ESRA General Secretary Michael. University of Stavanger At the GAM, Dr. Roger Flage, University of Norway Stavanger, was elected as General Secretary following Professor Coen van Gulijk. Flage is 33 years old and

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 1 sometimes considered as a generalization of DFTs, but does not currently support the integration of Feature Articles prognostics concepts. To address this need, we connect this framework to the formalism of Stochastic Activity Networks (SAN). In this approach, prognostics results

are regularly extracted during the system operation and Improved dynamic dependability these are used to update component failure assessment through integration with probabilities in the system dependability prediction model. Using new observations of a plant, the prognostics dependability estimates for the future trajectory of the system can be updated. This approach provides Jose Aizpurua Unanue improved prediction of dependability. Research Associate The paper presents and discusses a number of possible Institute for Energy connections between dependability and prognostics and Environment and proposes the use of SAN for the dynamic update of University of Strathclyde failure probabilities. Model-transformation rules are Scotland, U.K. also presented to convert BDMP models into SAN models and facilitate the posterior dynamic

dependability analysis. A case study from the power Improved dynamic dependability assessment through generation industry is analysed in detail, with real integration with prognostics inspection data and prognostics models for System dependability is a term that encompasses a transformers and circuit breakers integrated into a range of attributes which include safety, reliability, power supply system. Results confirm the validity of availability, and maintainability. In the nuclear industry the proposed approach for improved near real-time a key tool for dependability assessment is probabilistic unavailability estimations. safety assessments (PSA). PSA employs a combination The paper can be freely downloaded of Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Fault Tree Analysis from: https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/im (FTA) to address reliability and safety. In their proved-dynamic-dependability-assessment-through- traditional forms, both techniques are inadequate and integration-with-prognostics(acd9f0f8-9d49-4a81- inaccurate when dealing with dynamic failure scenarios 803f-41d9f519a7d1).html and system operation because they treat sequences as

combination of events. To enable a more accurate analysis of dynamic scenarios that include mode and state changes as well RESS News as sequencing of failures, several techniques for dynamic dependability analysis have emerged. Dynamic fault trees (DFTs) and Boolean logic Driven Markov Processes (BDMPs) are examples of prominent emerging techniques. Despite the advances Carlos Guedes Soares made in this field, even recent dynamic techniques Editor-in-Chief RESS only provide a prediction of the dependability that is Instituto Superior Técnico, established a-priori, i.e. before system deployment Universidade de Lisboa using average past operational data typically drawn from reliability databases. This prediction, however, leads to inaccurate estimates of system dependability attributes such as system safety and reliability that RESS is continuing an active policy towards having ignore the operational history and state of components special sections or special issues on specific topics so used in the specific system. as to present a more focused view on them. With increasing availability of online data, there is Volume 167 has published the special issue room to improve traditional dependability assessment Applications of Probabilistic Graphical Models in techniques. Namely, prognostics is an emerging field, Dependability, Diagnosis and Prognosis, guest edited which provides asset-specific failure prediction by Philippe Weber and Luigi Portinale, together with a information that can be reused to improve the system- large number of other papers. level failure estimation by forming a more accurate Recently closed special sections, which will be picture of the health of the system as it evolves during shortly appearing on the web site are: operation. •Maintenance Modelling This paper presents work that develops a state-of-the- Guest Editors: Shaomin Wu, Phuc Do art dynamic system dependability analysis technique to •Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk improve accuracy of prediction via component-level Guest Editors: Refik Soyer and Suleyman Ozekici prognostics. We use the BDMPs for expressing a Presently the following special issues are open: system dependability prediction model that can be Complex Systems RAMS Optimization: Methods developed by designers and analysts of the system. and Applications BDMP is a strong dynamic dependability technique Guest Editors: David W. Coit, Enrico Zio

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 2 •Impact of Prognostics and Health Management in Vulnerability & Resilience. Speakers shared their Systems Reliability and Maintenance Planning scientific knowledge and experience issued from areas Guest Editors: Joo Ho Choi and Ming Zuo of Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience. The special issue of ESREL 2015 is open for Different sectors were covered, such as: energy, submissions since April 2017: transport, communication, civil protection, maritime- •Foundations and Novel Domains for Human ports and nuclear reactors. Reliability Analysis 47 participants from 11 EU countries (, , Guest Editors: Luca Podofillini and Ali Mosleh Germany, , , , the Netherlands, , , and ) contributed through their presentations, discussions and expertise in establishing the state-of-the-art in the field. Full programme of the 52nd ESReDA Seminar and Past Safety and Reliability Events presentations are already available at ESReDA website. The final proceedings of the 52nd ESReDA Seminar will soon be available for public consultation and free downloading in compliance with ESReDA nd The 52 ESReDA Seminar on Critical politics of free dissemination of scientific and technical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness knowledge. & Resilience for the Security of Citizens and Services Supply Continuity Conference Report: LEI, Kaunas, Lithuania ESREL 2017 30-31 May 2017 Portorož, Slovenia June 18-22, 2017

Mohamed Eid Marko Čepin Chairperson of ESReDA Project University of Ljubljana, Faculty of ‐ ‐ Group CI PR/MS&A Data Electrical Engineering, CEA, France Slovenia

The 52nd ESReDA Seminar organized by ESReDA Introduction Project Group Critical Infrastructure Preparedness The 27th International European Safety and Reliability and Resilience: Data for Modelling, Simulation & th st Conference, ESREL 2017, esrel2017.org, was Analysis was held on the 30 -31 May, 2017 and organised in Portorož, Slovenia from June 18-22, 2017 hosted by the Lithuanian Energy Institute and by University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Electrical Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas (Lithuania). Engineering with the conference chairman prof. Dr. The technical programme included plenary Marko Čepin in the main role. presentations by leading academics, scientists and risk Slovenia is the smallest European country ever managers. Speakers shared their scientific knowledge organised ESREL (European Safety and Reliability) and experience, stimulating our thoughts and getting conference. across methodologies and applications in different Conference Report areas of Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and The conference program included five invited plenary Resilience. Plenary presentations were given by lectures given by the world leading experts: representatives of National Security and Crisis -Dr. Andrej Stritar (Risk, Hazard, Probability, Safety, Management Unit (Office of the Government, Reliability - How to Use These Concepts to Assure Lithuania), Strategic Analysis Division, NATO Energy Nothing Goes Wrong in Nuclear Facilities), Slovenian Security Centre of Excellence (Lithuania) and Nuclear Safety Administration, Slovenia, Lithuanian Geological Survey, under the Ministry of -Dr. Stefan Hirschberg (Health Risks of Technologies Environment (Lithuania). Besides, a specific Round for Power Generation), Paul Scherrer Institut, Table Discussion on Cyber Security was organised – , invited speakers shared their experience in the field -Prof. Dr. Enrique López Droguett (On the Treatment leaded by the fruitful discussions. Presentations were and Challenges of Model Uncertainty), Universidad de given by representatives of NATO Energy Security Chile, Chile, Centre of Excellence (Lithuania) and the Lithuania -Prof. Dr. Daniel Straub (Reliability of Smart Electricity Transmission System Operator LITGRID Systems), Technische Universität München, Germany AB (Lithuania). 18 technical papers were presented and covering five sessions: Emergency & Risk -Prof. Dr. Antoine Rauzy (Model-Based Safety Management; CIP & Safety Issues; CIP & System Assessment with Altarica 3.0), Norwegian University Safety Engineering; MS&A - Natural threats & CI's of Science and Technology, Norway. Resilience; MS&A - Preparedness,

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 3 PreESREL2017 workshop was organised on Sunday: 2017 mobile application, which was uploaded before Application and use of risk assessments – key the end of the conference approximately 200 times. challenges and recent advances, given by Willy Røed “Images of Risk” competition was organised, where and Roger Flage, University of Stavanger, Norway. the participants have been invited to submit an original Two software demonstration workshops were image which they have created to communicate an organised by sponsors HBM Prenscia and BQR. A interesting aspect of their work. The image could be a panel discussion: Industrial Challenges in Land photograph or a drawing or diagram. Although, we Transportation, was organised by Bob Huisman and have called the competition Images of “Risk”, in this Pierre Dersin. context we consider the term Risk to include safety, Ten parallel sessions were conducted during the reliability, risk, resilience, maintenance and related conference under the command of 68 session chairs. terms that fall within the scope of ESREL 2017. The conference organising system includes the data of 22 images were submitted. Conference participants at 700 professionals who showed the interest about the ESRA technical committee group walk to Piran conference. More than 640 abstracts have been decided for the best images. The small practical gifts submitted, more than 480 papers followed. The were given: at dinner to Dhruv Pandya (PhD student) technical program committee included 122 members getting majority of votes and at the conference closing who reviewed them in a way that at least 2 committee to the participants from the list of the other winners: members reviewed each paper and 455 papers have Claudia Vivalda, Claudia Morsut and Inga Žutautaite been selected for publication and presentation at the from Academia, and Alessandro Mancuso, Christian conference. Kuran, Jennifer Lynette and Roberto Rochetta (PhD The work described in these papers comes from students) - who were present at the closing ceremony. academia and from industry. Their contents includes Acknowledgment established areas, which are covered by the related We would like to thank many people for their support ESRA (European Safety and Reliability Association) and contributions to ESREL 2017. technical committees such as accident and incident Firstly, we thank the ESRA leaders and advisors: Terje modelling, economic analysis in risk management, Aven, Radim Briš, Piero Baraldi, Coen Van Gulijk and foundational issues in risk assessment and Enrico Zio and ESRA assembly for trust of the management, human factors and human reliability, organisation of the international conference ESREL maintenance modelling and applications, mathematical 2017. methods in reliability and safety, prognostics and We thank the organisers of previous ESREL system health management, resilience engineering, risk conferences for sharing with us their experience with assessment, risk management, simulation for safety and the organisation: Luca Podofillini, Lesley Walls, Tim reliability analysis, structural reliability, system Bedford. reliability and uncertainty analysis. We gratefully thank the members of the ESREL 2017 Those areas are covered in a wide range of industrial Technical Program Committee (122 members), the and governmental sectors, including aeronautics and European Safety and Reliability Association Technical aerospace, chemical and process industry, civil Committee Chairs and Co-Chairs (27 technical engineering, critical infrastructures, energy, committees), for volunteering their time and expertise information technology and telecommunications, land to provide feedback as part of the contributed paper transportation, manufacturing, maritime and offshore review process and for chairing the sessions at the technology, natural hazards, nuclear industry, conference. Every paper was reviewed by at least two occupational safety and security. anonymous reviewers. In addition, the contemporary themes are dealt with We thank the colleagues, who organised special such as the Marie Skłodowska-Curie innovative sessions of contributed papers (Krzysztof Kołowrocki, training network in structural safety, risk approaches in Qamar Mahboob, Coen van Gulijk, Arturo González, insurance and finance sectors, dynamic reliability and Emmanuel Raimond, Andrej Prošek), panel discussion probabilistic safety assessment, Bayesian and statistical (Bob Huisman, Pierre Dersin) and preconference methods, reliability data and testing, organizational workshop (Willy Røed and Roger Flage). factors and safety culture, software reliability and We thank the ESREL 2017 Plenary Speakers: Andrej safety, probabilistic methods applied to power systems, Stritar, Stephan Hirschberg, Enrique López Droguett socio-technical-economic systems, advanced safety and Antoine Rauzy for offering their unique assessment methodologies: extended probabilistic perspectives on safety and reliability at this conference. safety assessment, reliability, availability, We thank all the authors of contributed papers for their maintainability and safety in railways: theory and submissions and the participants of the Images of Risk practice, big data risk analysis and management, competition. We thank the 68 session chairs, who model-based reliability and safety engineering. contribute to the quality of discussions at particular Practitioner authored papers provide insights into the sessions. challenges faced in real applications and share insights The support of the ESREL 2017 sponsors and into the impact of the interventions to manage risk, exhibitors: silver sponsor and exhibitor: HBM while scientific papers share theoretical, Prenscia, sponsor: Gen Energija, sponsor and exhibitor: methodological and empirical research contributions. BQR, sponsor and exhibitor: SATODEV, is gratefully The program was issued in the paper form and in the acknowledged. We thank the organisations for electronic form for computers and phones – ESREL supporting the conference: it has been made possible

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 4 by the close collaboration of the University of Reliability Importance Factors: A Mathematical Point Ljubljana, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and of View, by Emanuele Borgonovo (Bocconi European Safety and Reliability Association and University, Milan, Italy) Agencija101. Probabilistic Construction and Properties of Gamma We thank Dr. Samo Gašperič from Faculty of Processes and Extensions, by Sophie Mercier Electrical Engineering for putting together all the (University of Pau and Pays de l'Adour, France) details. System Signatures: A 30-Year Retrospective”, by Finally, we would like to thank the ESREL 2017 Francisco J. Samaniego (University of California, organizing team from Agencija 101 (Leon Škrilec for Davis, USA) web support, Tamara Korat for technical and Cure Models, by Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan (Mac organisational matters, Maša Pogorevc for Master University, Hamilton, Canada) administration and director Dino Zupančič for taking Risk Quantification from Degradation Data by the responsibility). Zhisheng YE (National University of Singapore, Singapore) th 10 International Conference on A very interesting Panel Session, on a question of Mathematical Methods in Reliability interest for our community “Is Reliability a New Science?”, with prestigious panelists (William Q. (MMR 2017) Meeker, Mark Brown, Regina Liu, Sheldon M. Ross, Grenoble, France Nozer D. Singpurwalla) was held on Tuesday, July 4. 3-6 July 2017 Conference Website: http://mmr2017.imag.fr/

The International Conference on Olivier Gaudoin MMR 2017- Conference Chair Information and Digital Grenoble INP Technologies 2017 (IDT 2017) Université Grenoble Alpes University of Zilina, France 5 – 7 July 2017

Author : Elena Zaitseva, co-chair of IDT 2017,

Christophe Bérenguer MMR 2017- Organization Committee ESRA TC Maintenance Modelling and Applications Chair Grenoble INP Université Grenoble Alpes France

The 10th international MMR ”Mathematical Methods The International Conference on Information and in Reliability” conference was organized this year by Digital Technologies is organized by the team from Grenoble INP and Université Grenoble Alpes. ESRA University of Zilina (Slovakia) and was supported by was one of the sponsor. MMR celebrated its 20th ESRA. The Conference (http://idt.fri.uniza.sk/ ) covers anniversary. The conference was very successful in topics within information technologies, reliability, risk view of the presentation of 235 conferences from 38 and safety, testing and fault-tolerant systems, etc. participating countries, with 5 plenary sessions, 1 panel Multidisciplinary character of the Conference was session, 46 invited sessions and 30 contributed conditioned for the organization of some Workshops sessions, i.e. 77 sessions (with 3 conferences / session). under the Conference that thematically agree with These 77 sessions addressed a wide range of topics: principal investigate areas and topics of the stochastics orders and reliability, signatures, lifetime Conference. There were Workshops on: data analysis, multi-state systems reliability, •New Frontier Information Digital Technology: deterioration modelling, advanced mathematical From Logic Design To Real-World Applications methods in system reliability and maintenance, (Chair: Dr. Martin Lukac, Nazarbayev University, Bayesian inference, sensitivity analysis in reliability, ) maintenance modelling and decision making, •Biomedical Technologies (chair: Prof. Serge dependence modelling, big data & reliability, dynamic Ablameyko, Belarusian State University, ) reliability models, censoring methodology. •Reliability Technologies (chairs: Prof. Radim Bris, VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava, Czech 5 plenary speakers gave didactic and inspiring keynote Republic and Prof. Enrico Zio, European Foundation talks: for New Energy-Electricité de France at Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, France, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 5 •Dynamical systems and real world applications •Mixture Failure Rate: A study based on cross-entropy (chairs: Prof. Darya Filatova, Kielce University of and MCMC method (authors:Tien T. Thach, Radim Technology, Kielce, Poland and Prof. Charles El- Bris and Frank P. A. Coolen) Nouty, Université Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité •A Dynamically Reconfigurable VLSI Processor with LAGA, Paris, France) Hierarchical Structure based on a Micropacket •CERES: Modern Experience on Young Transfer Scheme (authors: Yoshichika Fujioka, Researchers Organization (chair: Prof. Vitaly Michitaka Kameyama and Martin Lukac) Levashenko, University of Zilina, Slovakia) •Agent-Based Power Equilibrium in a Smart Grid with More than 140 papers have been submitted for the XBOOLE (authors: Eric Msp Veith and Bernd conference and 71 papers were published in final Steinbach) Proceedings based on reviews that were provided by The similar competition was provided for paper of members Program Committee and reviewers from all young researchers: over the world. •Application of the Stewart Platform for studying in As result, 50% submitted papers were published in the control theory (authors: Dmitrii Dobriborsci, Conference’s Proceedings. The workshops’ chairs Aleksandr Kapitonov and Nikolay Nikolaev) mainly organized the review process and the process •Predicting clinical status of patients after an acute was made by a large number of reviewers. The ischemic stroke using random forests (authors: Adéla organization team is gratefully for their contributions Vrtková) to the improvement of quality of the accepted papers. •Vehicle recognition and its trajectory registration on At least two anonymous reviewers examined each the image sequence using deep convolutional neural paper in order to ensure fair and high-quality reviews. network (authors: Dmitry Yudin and Alexander Knysh) The Conference Proceedings of the Conference IDT In cooperation with ESRA the competition for best 2017 has been indexed in the well-known scientific papers of young researchers at the Workshop on repositories as IEEEXplore Reliability Technologies has been organized. The (http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?pu selection will be based on reviews and evaluation of number=8007434). sections' chairs after presentations. The best papers will The approved papers are organized into 19 working be awarded by 2 special diplomas of ESRA: sections. More then 70 presenters created a very creative and productive discussion atmosphere for the more than 150 participants during the working and plenary sessions and in the breaks. In the plenary sessions, distinguished invited speakers given a review of the future perspectives in their research areas: reliability, information technologies and medical informatics. In particular, next invited lectures were been:

Statistical Hypotheses Testing for Random and Pseudorandom Generators Based on Statistical Estimators of Entropy (authors: Uladzimir Palukha and Yuriy Kharin) •Multiple-Valued Logic in Analysis of Critical States of Multi-State System (authors: Miroslav Kvassay, Jan Rabcan, Patrik Rusnak) IEEE Czechoslovakia Section Chair Dr. Matej Pacha and Vice-chairman of ESRA Prof. Radim Bris awarded diplomas for authors of the selected papers at the •Selected Aspects of Multiple-valued Bent Functions, conference dinner. Prof. Radim Bris presented ESRA Prof. Claudio Moraga (Technical University of and its activities for the conference’s participants. Dortmund, Germany

•The Survival Signature for System Reliability, Prof. Frank Coolen, (Durham University, United Kingdom) •Challenges in Medical Image Analysis, Prof. Max A. Viergever (University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands) •Towards uniform approaches to create quantum Grover oracles for practical problems, Prof. Marek Perkowski (Portland State University, USA) The Czechoslovakia section of IEEE organized the competition for best papers of at the Conference IDT Need say some words about CERES workshop that has 2017 and 3 papers were selected after the evaluation by been organized for young participants, first of all PhD working sections’ chairs and chairs of workshops: candidates, students and postdoctoral fellows.

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 6 The submitted contributions for this workshop were ESRA Workshop on Virtual reviewed and published as the special Proceedings of Workshop. Maintenance By this way young participates had possibility to take Luleå University of Technology, part at the IDT Conference, present and discuss own results even their papers were not accepted at the th general part of the Conference. 29 September 2017 Author: Professor Uday Kumar, Associate &

Professor Janet Lin

Virtual Maintenance (VM) is an engineering technology using currently existing digital mock up and related maintenance information to build a virtual scene that simulates maintenance processes. The ESRA Workshop on Virtual Maintenance with specific focus on Safety and Reliability scenario was held in Luleå The local organizing committee has been organized th several cultural and social events that were held in Sweden on 29 September, 2017. pleasant atmosphere. Participants of the conference This workshop was sponsored by European Safety and visited two famous Slovakian castles in Trencin and Reliability Association (ESRA) and Virtual Strecno. Maintenance Laboratory at Beijing Beihang University The Trencin castle had seen below its walls hostile (BUAA) (note: BUAA’s VM Lab is one of China’s armies of Czech and Polish kings, State Key Laboratories of Virtual Reality Technology Tatar hordes, imperial landsknechts, soldiers of the and Systems, established in 2000. Turkish sultan, Tatars of the Khan of Krym, companies It assists the Defence Technology Laboratory of of the Duke of Sesia, and Kurucs and Labanec armies. Reliability and Environmental Engineering and is a However, it has never been conquered by a direct national teaching centre for virtual simulation.). It was attack. The oldest stone construction of the castle is the coordinated by Division of Operation and Maintenance pre-Romanesque rotunda, which dates back to Great Engineering, Luleå University of Technology (LTU), Moravia period (at the end of 9th century). Sweden.

The Strečno Castle is a ruin of a medieval castle of an Photo 1 Delegates of the workshop irregular plan located in northern Slovakia, 12 km east of Žilina. The castle stands on a 103-metre-high cliff The workshop has aimed at: above the river Váh. The first recorded mention of the 1) sharing knowledge and project experience of stone castle is from 1316. advanced VM techniques for safety and reliability scenario; 2) promoting international collaborations in VM research and education; 3) establishing cooperation and mutual exchange among VM labs; 4) promoting the transfer of good practices of VM. In total, there were 35 delegates from Government, Industry and academy have participated this workshop. The next conference will be organized by the team Professor Thomas Olofsson from LTU has introduced from University of Zilina in June 2019 in Zilina Virtual Reality Lab at LTU and research activities; (Soavakia). Our organization team will be glad to Professor Uday Kumar, LTU gave a presentation on extend the cooperation with ESRA. New ESRA eMaintenance: Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics; members are welcome in the Program Committee. We The group discussion was focussed on: will be glad to obtain your proposition about 1) Knowledge of human factor in VM; cooperation and new ideas for the Conference by e- 2) Virtual Reality technology for maintenance; and mail of organization team [email protected] or 3) Enhancement maintenance technology. [email protected]. Therefore the support of Based on the seminars and group discussion, it was ESRA is very important for IDT Conference unanimously agreed that Virtual Maintenance has development. fruitful applications for enhancing the effectiveness of

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 7 maintenance activities and life cycle management of will address the question: How can foresight improve industrial assets. systems’ resilience and accident prevention? This rises several topics such as: safety imagination with scenario approaches, foresight methods for short and long term, anticipation of new risks induced by new technology, the digital revolution, industry 4.0, the management of emerging risks, the detection and treatment of early warning signs (EWS), weak signals, accident precursors, the role of whistle blowers and of data Photo 2 Professor Uday Kumar in the workshop mining with big data and linguistic tools, the social climate and reporting culture, the use of the past experiences and organizational learning… We aim to discuss theories, concepts, and experiences (successes and failures) of enhancing foresight in safety. All industrial sectors are concerned (energy, process, transport, space, health critical infrastructure, public sector, government …). Photo 3 Professor Zhou Dong in the workshop The final call for papers is already available at ESReDA website: https://www.esreda.org/.

Calendar of Safety and Reliability The 54th ESReDA Seminar on Risk, Events Reliability and Safety of Energy Systems in Coastal and Marine Environments Nantes, France The 53rd ESReDA Seminar on 25-26 April 2018

Enhancing Safety: the Challenge of Foresight Alaa Châteauneuf EC DG JRC, Ispra, Italy Chairperson of ESReDA 14-15 November 2017 Project Group Reliability of Wind Turbines CIDECO, France

Nicolas Dechy The 54th ESReDA Seminar will be held on the 25th-26th Chairperson of ESReDA April 2018, hosted by Université de Nantes (Nantes, Project Group France). This seminar is organised with the support of Foresight in Safety the ESReDA Project Group Reliability of Wind IRSN, France Turbines (more information is available at ESReDA

website). The 53rd ESReDA Seminar will be held on the 14th-15th Nowadays, sustainable energy production becomes a November 2017 and will be hosted by EC DG JRC very challenging issue and most of the economically Directorate E: Space, Security and Migration, Ispra developed and underdeveloped countries plan rapid (Italy) with the support of EC DG JRC Directorate evolution in the 15 coming years. The climate changes G: Nuclear Safety & Security (Petten, The can be already felt in most of them. Meanwhile, when Netherlands). This seminar is organised with the the UNESCO revealed that 16% of the population lived support of the ESReDA Project Group Foresight in by the seaside (less than 100km from the coast) in Safety. More information about the Project Group goals 1990, this percentage reached 50% in 2010 and is is available on ESReDA website. planned to jump to 75% in 2035. Energy production The analysis of the major accidents and crises has from the sea or from the littoral is herein not only an shown that there were always early warning signs that opportunity with the ocean covering approximately could have been heeded and used as valuable 71% of the Earth surface, but also a chance with only information to design “relevant tools” and proactive few installed industrial systems in comparison with the strategies for preventing major events. potential and the existing scientific and technological Such missed opportunities point towards the need to knowledge (environmental resources, controlled improve foresight methods for enhancing safety & energy systems, grid optimization and materials in sea crises management. environment. The shift from safety management approaches in which Since the early 2010’s, the European Community improvement is predominantly based on hindsight to promotes researches and innovations in the field of include more foresight approaches has many hurdles to Marine Renewable Energy, with the improvement of overcome, in theory as well as in practice. The seminar existing wind offshore industry based on fixed

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 8 structures, the promising development of floating wind The annual European Safety and Reliability energy with increasing turbine capacities, the related Conference ESREL is an international conference increase of blade length and of the total height of the under the auspices of the European Safety and structure and the potential offered by ocean energy Reliability Association (ESRA). (wave, tidal, thermal). Recently, in 2016, the European The topic for ESREL 2018 is “Safe Societies in a Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-plan) wrote in Changing World” and our ambition for the conference its roadmap that the key goal is to reduce the LCOE is to advance in the understanding, modeling, and (Levelized Cost Of Electricity) and set the target of management of the complexity of the risk, safety and 7 ct€/kWh to be reached by 2035. To reach this reliability fields characterizing our world, now and in ambitious target, the European Platform of Universities the future. We aim at setting up a multidisciplinary in Energy Research & Education (EUA-EPUE) platform to address the technological, societal and recommends to develop system reliability, maintenance financial aspects of these fields. With the support of and structural health monitoring optimization and to NTNU, we engage in broadening the scope of risk, increase service lifetime from 25 years now to 35 safety and reliability from the technical to natural, years. There are many technical issues and human financial and social aspects, focusing on challenges where risk, reliability and safety are Inter-dependencies of functions and cascade of failures involved: evaluation of uncertain resources (wind, in complex systems. wave, currents), material reliability, complex system The time for the conference is 17-21 June 2018. The reliability, electrical grid optimization, collision with conference venue will be at the main campus of the ships, governance of risk in a multi-usage area (fishing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, tourism, maritime transport, European defence). NTNU. The aim of the 54th ESReDA seminar is to bring Organisers: together scientists, engineers and decision makers in Conference General Chairman: the field of complex engineering system safety, Prof. Stein Haugen – NTNU structural health monitoring, cost/benefit assessment Conference Co-Chairs: and risk management, in order to present and discuss Prof. Jan Erik Vinnem– NTNU innovative methodologies and practical applications Prof. Trond Kongsvik– NTNU related to complex system reliability, economical risk Prof. Anne Barros – NTNU and human risk in complex environment. Scientific Important dates methodologies, theoretical issues and practical case •Abstract deadline: October 15, 2017 studies are expected to cover all the range from •Abstract approval: October 17, 2017 academic to industrial applications, including electro- •Full paper deadline: December 15, 2017 mechanical and civil engineering. •Registration Opening: January 2018 Topics include (but are not limited to): •Comments from reviewers: February 1, 2018 −Reliability-based design and optimization (including •Final paper: February 15, 2018 structural, material and electro-mechanical Conference Website: issues); https://www.ntnu.edu/web/esrel2018/home −Service lifetime extension; −Risks during sea operations and during service lifetime in a multi-usage area; 37th International Conference on −Robustness quantification of complex systems; Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engine- −Electrical grid optimization and asset management; −Life-cycle assessment and optimization; ering (OMAE2018) −Structural and mechanical reliability, including Symposium on Structures, Safety electro-mechanical systems −Probabilistic degradation models; and Reliability −Added value of structural health monitoring and Madrid, inspection, maintenance and repair optimization; 17-22 June 2018 −Risk assessment and decision theory; −Computation procedures in analysis and optimization; −Failure consequences on human lives, activities and environmental damage; Since 2003, the OMAE conference has more than −Organisational and societal modelling; −Industrial case studies in coastal structures and tripled in size, with over 1,000 participants at OMAE marine renewable energy. 2015 in St. John’s, Canada and over 900 in Busan, More information and the Call for Papers are Korea. The annual OMAE conference is an available at the 54th ESReDA seminar website. international assembly of engineers, researchers, and Welcome to ESREL 2018 students in the fields of ocean, offshore and arctic Trondheim, Norway engineering. The conference is organized by thematic area in 9 traditional Symposia, one of which deals with 17-21 June 2018 topics of Safety and Reliability as applied to this

ESRA Newsletter September 2017 9 industrial domain. This Symposium typically has • D’Appolonia, S.p.A, Italy around 120 papers and thus is an interesting venue for • IB Informatica, Italy • RINA, Italy reliability specialists that want to develop applications • TECSA, SpA, Italy in this industrial sector. • TNO Defence Research, The Netherlands Important Dates: • Dovre Safetec Nordic AS, Norway •Abstract submission: October 3, 2017 • PRIO, Norway •Full paper deadline for review: January 12, 2017 • SINTEF Industrial Management, Norway • Specific questions can be addressed to the Symposium Central Mining Institute, Poland • Adubos de Portugal, Portugal Coordinator at: • Transgás - Sociedade Portuguesa de Gás Natural, [email protected] Portugal Conference Website: http://www.omae2018.com • Cia. Portuguesa de Producção Electrica, Portugal • Siemens SA Power, Portugal • ESM Res. Inst. Safety & Human Factors, Spain • IDEKO Technology Centre, Spain • TECNUN, Spain • TEKNIKER, Spain • CSIC, Spain • HSE - Health & Safety Executive, UK • Atkins Rails, UK • W.S. Atkins, UK • Railway Safety, UK • Vega Systems, UK ESRA Information 1.4 Educational and Research Institutions • University of Innsbruck, • University of Natural Resources & Applied Life Sciences, Austria • 1. ESRA Membership AIT Austrian Institute of Techn. GmbH, Austria • Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1.1 National Chapters • University of Mining and Geology, • French Chapter • Czech Technical Univ. in Prague, • German Chapter • Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic • Italian Chapter • University of Defence, Czech Republic • Polish Chapter • Tallin Technical University, • Portuguese Chapter • Helsinki University of Technology, • Spanish Chapter • École de Mines de Nantes, France • UK Chapter • Université Henri Poincaré (UHP), France 1.2 Professional Associations • Laboratoire d'Analyse et d'Architecture des • The Safety and Reliability Society, UK Systèmes (LAAS), France • Danish Society of Risk Assessment, • Université de Bordeaux, France • SRE Scandinavia Reliability Engineers, Denmark • Université de Technologie de Troyes, France • ESReDA, France • Université de Marne-la-Vallée, France • French Institute for Mastering Risk (IMdR-SdF), • INERIS, France France • Fern University, Germany • VDI-Verein Deutscher Ingenieure (ESRA • Technische Universität Muenchen, Germany Germany), Germany • Technische Universität Wuppertal, Germany • The Netherlands Society for Risk Analysis and • University of Kassel, Germany Reliability (NVRB), The Netherlands • TU Braunschweig, Germany • Polish Safety & Reliability Association, Poland • Institute of Nuclear Technology Radiation • Asociación Española para la Calidad, Spain Protection, Greece 1.3 Companies • University of the Aegean, Greece • • TAMROCK Voest Alpine, Austria Universita di Bologna (DICMA), Italy • • IDA Kobenhavn, Denmark Politecnico di Milano, Italy • • VTT Industrial Systems, Finland Politecnico di Torino, Italy • • Bureau Veritas, France Universita Degli Studi di Pavia, Italy • • INRS, France Universita Degli Studi di Pisa, Italy • • Total, France Technical University of Delft, The Netherlands • • Commissariat á l'Energie Atomique, France Institute for Energy Technology, Norway • • DNV, France Norwegian Univ. Science & Technology, Norway • • Eurocopter Deutschland GMbH, Germany University of Stavanger, Norway • • GRS, Germany Technical University of Gdansk, Poland • • SICURO, Greece Gdynia Maritime Academy, Poland • • VEIKI Inst. Electric Power Res. Co., Institute of Fundamental Techn. Research, Poland • • Autostrade, S.p.A, Italy Technical University of Wroclaw, Poland • Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal ESRA Newsletter September 2017 10 • Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal 3.2 Publications Standing Committee • Universidade Nova de Lisboa - FCT, Portugal Chairman: C. Guedes Soares, Instituto Sup. Técnico, • Universidade de Minho, Portugal Portugal • Universidade do Porto, Portugal This committee has the responsibility of interfacing with • University Politechnica of Bucharest, Romania Publishers for the publication of Conference and Workshop • University of Iasi, Romania proceedings, of interfacing with Reliability Engineering and • Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia System Safety, the ESRA Technical Journal, and of • University of Trencin, Slovakia producing the ESRA Newsletter. • Institute “Jozef Stefan”, Slovenia 4. Technical Committees • Asociación Española para la Calidad, Spain Methodologies • PMM Institute for Learning, Spain • Universidad D. Carlos III de Madrid, Spain 4.1 Accident and Incident modeling • Universidad de Extremadura, Spain Chairman: Stig Johnsen, Norway & Nicola Paltrinieri, • Univ. de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain Norway • Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain E-mail: [email protected]; • Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Spain [email protected] • Institute de Matematica y Fisica Fundamental 4.2 Economic Analysis in Risk Management (IMAFF), Spain Chairman: Eirik B. Abrahamsen, Norway • University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain E-mail: [email protected] • Luleå University, Sweden 4.3 Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and • World Maritime University, Sweden Management • Institut f. Energietechnik (ETH), Switzerland Chairman: Terje Aven, Norway & Enrico Zio, France • Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] • City University London, UK 4.4 Human Factors and Human Reliability • Liverpool John Moores University, UK Chairman: Luca Podofillini, Switzerland & Chiara • University of Aberdeen, UK Leva, Ireland • University of Bradford, UK E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] • University of Salford, UK 4.5 Maintenance Modeling and Applications • University of Strathclyde, Scotland, UK Chairman: Christophe Bérenguer, France & Mitra Fouladirad, France 1.5 Associate Members E-mail: [email protected]; • Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil [email protected] • Fluminense Federal University, Brazil 4.6 Mathematical Methods in Reliability and • Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Brazil Safety • European Commission - DR TREN (Transport and Chairman: John Andrews, UK & Nicolae Brinzei, Energy), in France • Vestel Electronics Co., E-mail: [email protected]; 2. ESRA Officers [email protected] Chairman 4.7 Prognostics and System Health Management Chairman: Piero Baraldi, Italy & Enrico Zio, France Terje Aven ([email protected]) E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] University of Stavanger, Norway 4.8 Resilience Engineering Vice-Chairman Chairman: Ivonne Herrera, Norway & Eric Rigaud, Radim Bris ([email protected]) France Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic E-mail: [email protected]; General Secretary [email protected] Coen van Gulijk ([email protected]) 4.9 Risk assessment University of Huddersfield, UK Chairman: Marko Cepin, Slovenia & Henrik Hassel, Treasurer Sweden E-mail: [email protected]; Piero Baraldi ([email protected]) [email protected] Politecnico di Milano, Italy 4.10 Risk Management Past Chairman Chairman: Lesley Walls, UK & David Valis, Czech Enrico Zio ([email protected]) Republic & Marcelo Hazin, Brazil Politecnico di Milano, Italy E-mail: [email protected]; Chairmen of the Standing Committees [email protected]; [email protected] Antoine Grall, University of Technology of Troyes, France 4.11 Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis C. Guedes Soares, Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal Chairman: Nicola Pedroni, France & Edoardo Patelli, UK E-mail: [email protected]; 3. Standing Committees [email protected] 3.1 Conference Standing Committee 4.12 Structural Reliability Chairman: A. Grall, University of Tech. of Troyes, France Chairman: Jana Markova, Czech Republic & Martin The aim of this committee is to establish the general policy Krejsa, Czech Republic and format for the ESREL Conferences, building on the E-mail: [email protected]; experience of past conferences, and to support the [email protected] preparation of ongoing conferences. The members are one 4.13 System Reliability leading organiser in each of the ESREL Conferences. ESRA Newsletter September 2017 11 Chairman: Gregory Levitin, Israel & Serkan Eryilmaz, 4.21 Land Transportation Turkey Chairman: Olga Fink, Switzerland & Bob Huisman, E-mail: [email protected]; The Netherlands [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; 4.14 Uncertainty analysis [email protected] Chairman: Emanuele Borgonovo, Italy & Roger Flage , 4.22 Manufacturing Norway Chairman: Benoit Iung, France & François Peres, E-mail: [email protected]; France [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; Application Areas - Technological Sectors [email protected] 4.23 Maritime and Offshore technology 4.15 Aeronautics and Aerospace Chairman: Jin Wang, UK & Ingrid B. Utne, Norway & Chairman: Darren Prescott, UK Mario Brito, UK E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; 4.16 Chemical and Process Industry [email protected] Chairman: Valerio Cozzani, Italy & Gabriele Landucci, 4.24 Natural Hazards Italy & Nima Khakzad, The Netherlands Chairman: Pieter van Gelder, The Netherlands & Bas E-mail: [email protected]; Kolen, The Netherlands [email protected]; [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; 4.17 Civil Engineering [email protected] Chairman: Raphael Steenbergen, The Netherlands 4.25 Nuclear Industry E-mail: [email protected] Chairman: Sebastian Martorell, Spain & Francesco Di 4.18 Critical Infrastructures Maio, Italy Chairman: Giovanni Sansavini, Switzerland & Enrico E-mail: [email protected]; Zio, France [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 4.26 Occupational Safety 4.19 Energy Chairman: Ben Ale, The Netherlands & Reniers Chairman: Michalis Christou, Belgium & Mahmood Genserik, Belgium Shafiee, UK E-mail: [email protected]; E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] [email protected] 4.27 Security 4.20 Information Technology and Chairman: Sissel H. Jore, Norway & Zdenek Vintr, Telecommunications Czech Republic & Genserik Reniers, Belgium Chairman: Elena Zaitseva, Slovakia & Ralf Mock, E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; Switzerland genserik.reniers@uantwerpen. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

ESRA is a non-profit international organization for the advance and application of safety and reliability technology in all areas of human endeavour. It is an “umbrella” organization with a membership consisting of national societies, industrial organizations and higher education institutions. The common interest is safety and reliability. For more information about ESRA, visit our web page at http://www.esrahomepage.eu For application for membership of ESRA, please contact the general secretary Coen van Gulijk E- mail: [email protected]. Please submit information to the ESRA Newsletter to any member of the Editorial Board: Editor: Carlos Guedes Soares – [email protected] Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon

Editorial Board: Marko Cepin - [email protected] – [email protected] Ângelo Teixeira University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal Paul Ulmeanu - [email protected] – [email protected] Mitra Fouladirad Univ. Politechnica of Bucharest, Romania University of Technology of Troyes France , Jana Markova – [email protected] – [email protected] Dirk Proske Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic University of Natural Resources and Sofía Carlos - [email protected] Applied Life Sciences, Austria Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain - [email protected] Francesco Di Maio Joël Luyk - [email protected] Politecnico di Milano, Italy Soc. for Risk Analysis & Reliability, The Netherlands – [email protected] Igor Kozine Uday Kumar - [email protected] Technical University of Denmark, Denmark Luleå University of Technology, Sweden – [email protected] Sylwia Werbinska Zoe Nivolianitou – [email protected] Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland Demokritos Institute, Greece – [email protected] Eirik Albrechtsen Elena Zaitseva - [email protected] Norwegian University of Science Technology, Norway University of Žilina , Slovakia – [email protected] Luca Podofillini Matthew Revie - [email protected] Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom

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