Armed and insecure An overview of arms transfers and armed violence in the Horn of Africa (2010-2015) www.paxforpeace.nl Colophon September 2016 ISBN: 978-94-92487-02-5 NUR 689 PAX2016/07 Authors: Daniel Mack and Frank Slijper Editing: Susan Clark and Daan Kayser Cover photo: Nuba Reports: SPLA-North rebels in Sudan, 2015 Other photos: ACLED, AU UN IST photo/Tobin Jones, Enough/Amanda Hsiao, Nuba Reports, David Stentley, Yannick Tylle, UK DFID/Pete Lewis, UN photo/Stuart Price, US DoD/Staff Sgt. Joseph Araiza, Alan Wilson. Graphic design: Het IJzeren Gordijn PAX would like to thank the following people for their invaluable input and support: Roos Boer, Jessica Dorsey, Alexandra Hiniker, Louise Khabure, Nico Plooijer, Hans Rouw, Kathelijne Schenkel, Jelena Sporin, Jeremy Wheatley and Wim Zwijnenburg. About PAX PAX works with committed citizens and partners to protect civilians against acts of war, to end armed violence and to build just peace. PAX operates independently of political interests. www.paxforpeace.nl P.O. Box 19318 3501 DH Utrecht, The Netherlands [email protected] Armed and insecure An overview of arms transfers and armed violence in the Horn of Africa (2010-2015) Foreword arge numbers of people from the Horn of Africa were born during conflict and have been witness to the constant danger of violence. Many of them have been forced to flee their homes. Millions of people are internally displaced within the nation they /were born in, have resettled in neighboring countries, or have fled overseas to Europe and North America. The abundance of weapons in the region, and the continued flow of weap- ons to and within the Horn of Africa is certainly not the sole cause of violence, but their wide availability and poor arms trade controls clearly aggravate the level of conflict. This report gives a unique overview of how armed conflict and arms trade are interrelated in the Horn of Africa. It shows how violence and poor governance go hand in hand, while it is civilians that pay the price. In efforts to build more peaceful societies, governments in the Horn of Africa should be more accountable on their arms procurement; at the same time exporting states should adhere to much stricter norms, such as those set in the UN Arms Trade Treaty. In fact, the level of problems facing the region makes one wonder what good more arms to a region already engulfed in violence could possibly do. As a South Sudanese colleague recently said in despondency: “Please educate me on how adding more arms to the situation in South Sudan will help bring peace, reduce the tension we currently see, and give us hope for a stable country!” Jan Gruiters, General Director PAX 4 PAX ! Armed and insecure PAX ! Armed and insecure 5 List of Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project AMISOM African Union Mission to Somalia AOAV Action On Armed Violence ATT Arms Trade Treaty AU African Union CCM Convention on Cluster Munitions CCW Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product HRW Human Rights Watch HSBA Human Security Baseline Assessment (Small Arms Survey) ICC International Criminal Court ICG International Crisis Group IDP Internally Displaced Person IFV Infantry Fighting Vehicle IHL International Humanitarian Law JEM Justice and Equality Movement (Sudan) LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MBT Mine Ban Treaty MIC Military Industrial Corporation (Sudan) MRL Multiple Rocket Launcher 6 PAX ! Armed and insecure MSF Médecins Sans Frontières NISAT-PRIO Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers at the Peace Research Institute OCHA Oslo OHCHR Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN) RECSA Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Regional Centre on Small Arms in the Great Lakes Region, the Horn of Africa and Bordering States RPG Rocket-Propelled Grenade SAF Sudanese Armed Forces SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons SAM Surface-to-Air Missile SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SLM/A Sudan Liberation Movement/Army SPLM/A Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SPLM/A-IO Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition SPLM/A-N Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army - North SRF Sudan Revolutionary Front SSDM/A South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army TFG Transitional Federal Government (Somalia) UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UN United Nations UNDP UN Development Programme UNSC UN Security Council UNAMID African Union/United Nations Hybrid operation in Darfur UNMIS UN Mission in Sudan (until 2011) UNMISS UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (from 2011) PAX ! Armed and insecure 7 Contents Foreword 4 List of Abbreviations 6 Contents 8 Introduction 14 Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 22 1. Sudan 22 Weapon Use 25 Military Spending and Holdings 30 Arms Transfers 31 Arms Embargoes 37 International Arms Control Mechanisms 39 Spotlight: Children killed and maimed in South Kordofan 40 2. South Sudan 44 Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 45 Military Spending and Holdings 49 Arms Transfers 50 Arms Embargoes 55 International Arms Control Mechanisms 56 Spotlight: An Armed Newborn—Pre-independence Arms Holdings and Transfers 57 3. Uganda 62 Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 64 8 PAX ! Armed and insecure Weapon Use 68 Military Spending and Holdings 68 Arms Transfers 70 International Arms Control Mechanisms 75 Spotlight—Uganda and South Sudan: a Troubled Friendship 76 4.Kenya 80 Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 81 Weapon Use 86 Military Spending and Holdings 86 Arms Transfers 87 International Arms Control Mechanisms 91 Spotlight: Diversion and illicit trafficking in the seat of the Nairobi Protocol 91 5. Ethiopia 96 Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 97 Military Spending and Holdings 101 Arms Transfers 103 Arms Embargoes 105 International Arms Control Mechanisms 6. Eritrea Armed Conflicts andArmed Violence 113 Weapon Use 113 Military Spending and Holdings 115 Arms Embargoes 116 Arms Transfers 117 International Arms Control Mechanisms 118 Spotlight: Burning Borders 119 7. Somalia 124 Armed Conflicts and Armed Violence 126 Weapons Use 131 Military Spending and Holdings 134 Arms Embargoes 135 Arms Transfers 136 International Arms Control Mechanisms 141 Spotlight: Autonomy and Violence: Somaliland and Puntland 141 8.Djibouti 146 Armed Conflicts and Armed Violence 148 Weapon Use 149 Military Spending and Holdings 150 Arms Transfers 153 International Arms Control Mechanisms 154 Spotlight: Spillover from Yemen 155 Conclusions and Recommendations 158 PAX ! Armed and insecure 9 Agents of Political Conflict in Africa (Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data [ACLED] Project) Political Conflict by Agent Type Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Inter1 Government Forces Rebels Political Militias Communal Militias Rioters Protesters Civilians External Forces # of Conflict Events 1 100 200 300 400 492 Conflict Agent Type Communal Militias N.B.: ACLED does not include Government Forces civilians as agents of conflict as Rebels they do not actively take part in Political Militias conflict events. Rioters 10 PAX ! Armed and insecure Protesters External Forces Agents of Political Conflict in Africa (Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data [ACLED] Project) Political Conflict by Agent Type Year 1997 1998 Map 1 1999 Agents of Political2000 Conflict in Africa (2010-2015) 2001 Source: Armed 2002Conflict Location and Event Data [ACLED] Project:2003 http://www.acleddata.com/ visuals/maps/dynamic-maps/2004 2005 N.B.: ACLED does not include civilians as agents of conflict as they2006 do not actively take part in conflict event 2007 2008 2009 2010 Agents of Political Conflict in Africa 2011 (Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data [ACLED] Project)Inter1 Government Forces Political Conflict by Agent Type Rebels Political Militias Year Communal Militias 1997 1998 Rioters 1999 2000 Protesters 2001 2002 Civilians 2003 2004 External Forces 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Inter1 # of Conflict Events Government Forces Rebels 1 Political Militias Communal Militias Rioters 100 Protesters Civilians 200 External Forces 300 # of Conflict Events 1 400 100 200 492 300 Conflict400 Agent Type 492 Conflict Agent CommunalType Militias Communal Militias : ACLED does not include N.B.: ACLED does not include GovernmentGovernment Forces Forces N.B. civilians as agents of conflict as Rebels they do not actively take part in Political MilitiasRebels civilians as agents of conflict as conflict events. Rioters Protesters Political Militias they do not actively take part in External Forces conflict events. Rioters ProtestersPAX ! Armed and insecure 11 External Forces Egypt Sudan Chad !Khartoum !Abyei Central African Republic South Sudan !Juba Uganda Dem. Rep. Congo !Kampala Rwanda Burundi Tanzania 12 PAX ! Armed and insecure Saudi Arabia Map 2 Horn of Africa Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti. Eritrea !Asmara Yemen !Khartoum Gulf of Aden Djibouti !Djibouti Ethiopia !Addis Ababa !Juba Somalia !Mogadishu Uganda Kenya Indian Ocean !Kampala !Nairobi Tanzania PAX ! Armed and insecure 13 Introduction arge swathes of the Horn of Africa have suffered from prolonged armed violence. Sustained security and stability may often seem like a mirage in the region, as conflict, armed violence and terrorism have become tragically commonplace in recent decades. / Civilians unacceptably bear the brunt, with thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of people displaced in recent years as a direct consequence of armed violence. A closer look at some of the areas deemed ‘islands of calm’ in the sub-region reveal that their security is only relative to the ‘rough sea’ around them. Very few, if any, of the armed conflicts and major patterns of armed violence in the Horn of Africa are purely national phenomena. Rather, most often have a regional or trans-border dimension, sometimes with neighbouring countries involved militarily in other countries. There are, of course, major differences between the countries, and in some cases major differences within a country.