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A Statistical Rating for NFL Kickers Honors

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A Statistical Rating for NFL Kickers Honors A Statistical Rating for NFL Kickers Honors Thesis (Honors 499) By Bobby Stone Thesis Advisor Dr. Dale Umbach Ball State University Muncie, Indiana May 2004 Graduation Date: May 8, 2004 Abstract - In the National Football League, the only position player that currently has a rating that evaluates his performance during the game and season is the quarterback. But, why does the kicker not have a rating? This thesis project develops four basic rating systems and an entire statistical fonnula to evaluate the kicker's performance during the course of a season. Some of the statistics that will be explored in this project is field goal percentage from certain distances, point-after-touchdown (PAT) conversions, the number offield goals made, average distance offield goal makes, misses and attempts. The statistical formula has six components, but it also has four additional factors that can be added onto the formula if one so chooses. These four factors are attempting field goals at home or on the road, on grass or on turf, which quarter was the field goal attempted in and outdoors or in a dome. Also, each kicker's total is found for this past season (2003). Acknowledgments - I would like to thank my thesis advisor Dr. Dale Umbach for jumpstarting me with the idea of creating such a statistical rating. I would like to thank my parents, Bob and Janis, for their ttemendous help throughout this interesting experience and helping me get through some of the frustrations this project caused me at times. I also would like to thank Mrs. Jan Wamer and the rest of the staff and students at Hartford City Middle School, where I student taught, for their help and special motivation for me to keep on­ task during this last semester. Bobby Stone Honors Thesis A Statistical Rating for NFL Kickers Currently, a quarterback is the only type of position player in football that has a rating to judge his performance on the field for that game or an entire season. There are four components to the quarterback rating or passing efficiency rating: completions per attempt (completion percentage), yards per attempt, interceptions per attempt, and touchdowns per attempt. The passing efficiency rating is done in the NCAA while the quarterback rating is done in the NFL. There are some main differences between the two ratings. The quantities are scaled differently such as the NFL gives 4.17 points for yards per attempt, while the NCAA gives 8.4 points for yards per attempt ("NCAA and NFL passing efficiency rating"). Also, the NFL quarterback ratings are "capped," but the NCAA does not cap their rating. As a result there is a low end and a high end for each of the components. The NFL sets a standard from 0.000 (poor) to 2.375 (outstanding) for its ratings in each of the four components. Each component has a maximum that a passer can achieve, and if that passer achieves that mark, then he will receive a 2.3 75 for that component. After each of the four components is figured, they are added together. Next, the sum is divided by six and multiplied by 100 to get the final rating. The highest rating a quarterback or any passer of the football can get is 158.3. (NCAA and NFL Passing Efficiency) The purpose of understanding the passer ratings is to know somewhat what the kicker rating will resemble. Many football fans will still question the need for such a rating. Currently, the only statistics any football kicker has is points scored and an accuracy percentage. Both present ways to measure a kicker's worth or value to his team, but there are so many more components that truly evaluate that particular kicker's performance. In the accompanying Microsoft Excel file on sheets one and two, there are three more general potential ratings that almost anyone could use and implement for his own personal use. These three "minor" ratings involve basic statistics found in any newspaper or in any stat sheet. However, there is another rating that is much more complex and includes all kinds of factors that could potentially affect any kick during a game. Kicker Rating #1 - The first of the kicker ratings is very basic and easy to use so that any diehard football fan could use this rating. % or # of kicks MULllPLIER RESULT PAT MADEl PATATlEMPlED 1 25 25 OVERALL FG peT. 0.868421053 25 21.71053 18-29 fg's made 16 2 32 30-39 fg's made 6 4 24 160.7105 OVERALL 4049 fg's made 11 6 66 50 + fg's made 0 8 0 18-29 fg's missed 0 4 0 30-39 fg's missed 0 3 0 4049 fg's missed 3 2 6 50 + fg's missed 2 1 2 This table is from the attached Excel file NFL Kickers Rating Sheet I. This rating only takes into account the percentages of the point after touchdowns (PAT's) and the field goals (FG) as well as the number of made and missed field goals from their respective distances. To change the numbers and put in any kicker's statistics into the formula is rather simple to do. Calculate the PAT percentage in this Excel file by hitting = followed by the number of made PAT's by the number of attempts. In this example from statistics found on NFL.com, Baltimore Ravens kicker Matt Stover made 35 out of 2 35 PAT's. Since the percentages are figured as decimals, 100% accuracy for PAT's is equivalent to a 1 as a decimal. His field goal percentage is found the same way as point­ after-touchdowns in that field goals made is divided by field goals attempted. Stover made 33 field goals and attempted 38. Thus his 33 made field goals are divided by 38 to find his field goal percentage which as a decimal is 0.86842105. Lastly, the number of field goals made or missed is determined by the distance of the kick. The longest field goal ever made is 63 yards (done only twice) and the longest field goal in the 2003 season is 58 yards by Josh Brown of Seattle (NFL Stats). Similarly, the shortest field goal anyone can make or attempt is only 18 yards. This occurs because the farthest a team can advance the ball without scoring a touchdown is to the opponents' I-yard line. If that team does not score a touchdown and they opt to kick a field goal, then the ball is placed at the I-yard line. However, the kick will be moved seven yards farther back (to the 8-yard line) so that the kicker has a better chance of making it without the kick being blocked. Also, the kick has to go through the uprights of the goal posts, which are located at the back of the end zone, which is 10 yards long. The field goal attempt will be the one yard to go plus the seven yards to move the kick back plus the final ten yards for the length of the end zone to make the kick the resulting 18 yards. There are eight categories for kicking distance: 18-29 yards made and 18-29 yards missed; 30-39 yards made and 30-39 yards missed; 40-49 yards made and 40-49 yards missed and 50 yards and beyond made and 50 yards and beyond missed. The other item in the table that is extremely important to compute this kicker rating is to know the multipliers. Point-after-touchdowns are really 20-yard field goals that are only worth one point on the scoreboard for the team. Field goals count for more 3 points on the scoreboard, but only in three possible situations can a field goal be less or equal to the yardage of a PAT. Thus, in this rating the percentage of PAT's is the only time a P AT is figured into the formula and most times this percentage is 100% or 1 in decimal form. The kicker has essentially a minimum of 50 points by kicking and making just one point-after-touchdown and one field goal in this rating. However, the more field goals the kicker attempts and makes the more points the kicker receives. The percentages of both field goals and point-after-touchdowns are figured with a multiplier of25 points each because there should be a minimum value for making at least one of each type of kick without any misses. Also, the total value, which will be 50 points in the rating, is a significant amount of the total rating for all kickers. But, an outstanding kicker for the 2003 season typically has a rating between 150 and 190. The kicker's total rating wasn't solely based off of his percentage but also consisted of how many kicks he made and missed and the distance of each. For each category of distances, there are also multipliers. At the professional level the hash marks, which are the boundaries of where the football can be possessed at or kicked from, are equal to where the goalposts are aligned. Therefore, a kicker should have little problem kicking a shorter distance field goal. There are many factors in this particular rating that could change the idea that a pro kicker should be able to make shorter distance field goals. Such an event could be a blocked kick, weather, or possible unlucky things like getting a cleat caught in the turf, which has happened before.
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