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The London School of Economics and Political Science Mongolian State Weakness, Foreign Policy, and Dependency on the People’s Republic of China Jeffrey Reeves A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, January 2010 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. 2 Abstract This thesis draws on a synthesis of foreign policy analysis (FPA) and constructivism in order to demonstrate how post Cold War Mongolia’s relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can be analysed through a multi- sectoral approach to explain the dilemmas that a weak state faces when conducting its relations with a much more powerful neighbour. It proposes that the dissonance between Mongolia’s social identity and its structures of governance is the basis for the Mongolian state’s weakness and that such weakness makes growing economic dependency on the PRC more difficult to manage. Moreover, the resulting combination of economic dependency and state weakness seriously limits the government’s ability to maintain an effective broader foreign policy. The dissertation draws on government texts, academic and media articles, and interviews in Mandarin Chinese, Mongolian, and English. The thesis looks in detail at the nature of Mongolian identity politics by focusing on identity development over la longue durée. It then demonstrates how the international community failed to take account of the dynamics of Mongolian identity politics when it came to assisting the Mongolian government with the country’s post Cold War transition from communism. This led to an undue reliance on what can be termed ‘Washington Consensus’ type political and economic reforms that considerably added to the weakness of the state. The thesis then focuses on Mongolia’s economic relations with the PRC to show how such state weakness has resulted in a relationship of growing dependency. Building on economic dependency theory, the thesis then further examines the implications of Mongolia-Sino relations from environmental, societal, and military perspectives. In conclusion, the dissertation argues that the division between the Mongolian state and society has been exacerbated by the country’s adherence to capitalism and democracy in ways that have created the potential for domestic instability by increasing the depth and breadth of economic dependence on the PRC. 3 This imposes severe constraints on foreign policy options but has also demanded some imaginative innovations that give interesting insights into the measures a vulnerable state can take to maximise its international presence. Ultimately, however, the disjuncture between social identity and the state acts as a constraining factor on such initiatives in the case of Mongolia. 4 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my thesis supervisor, Professor Christopher Hughes, for his help and support during the four years I worked on this dissertation. I would also like to thank Professor Morris Rossabi for assisting me during my time at Columbia University. I could not have completed my research without the support of my classmates and staff in the International Relations Department. Their guidance and support have been invaluable. I would also like to express my gratitude to the International Relations Department for its continuous financial support. Lastly, I would like to thank my family who have been supportive over the years. In particular, I would like to thank my wife, Oyun, and son, Patrick, for their patience and encouragement during my studies. 5 Table of Contents Introduction......................................................................................................................14 1.1 Why Use Theoretical Pluralism? ...........................................................................16 1.2 Constructivism: Domestic Norms and Social Identity.............................................17 1.3 Foreign Policy Analysis: Sources of State Weakness .............................................22 1.4 Weak State and Balance of Threat Theories: Understanding Mongolian Foreign Policy ...................................................................28 1.5 The Case for China .................................................................................................31 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................35 Chapter Two: The Formation of a Modern Mongolian Identity ................................37 2.1 Pre-Modern Mongolian Identity .............................................................................39 2.2 Modern Mongolian Identity ...................................................................................52 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................65 Chapter Three: The Development of Sovereignty in the Post Cold War Mongolian State ..................................................................................................................................68 3.1 Post-Cold War Political Development of Mongolia’s Political Parties and Institutions of Authority ................................................................................................69 3.2 International Legal Sovereignty...............................................................................74 3.3 Westphalian sovereignty..........................................................................................76 3.4 Interdependence sovereignty ..................................................................................85 3.5 Domestic sovereignty...............................................................................................94 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................102 Chapter Four: Mongolia’s Growing Economic Dependency on China....................105 4.1 China’s Economic Foreign Policy Toward Mongolia ...........................................109 4.2 Mongolia’s External Trade ....................................................................................110 4.3 Foreign Direct Investment ....................................................................................121 4.4 Mongolia’s Mining Industry: Chinese Investment ...............................................125 6 4.5 Overseas Development Aid (ODA).......................................................................132 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................137 Chapter Five: China’s Effect On Mongolia’s Environmental Security ...................141 5.1 Chinese Domestic Environmental Policy ............................................................142 5.2 Disruption of Ecosystems ......................................................................................144 5.3 Energy Problems....................................................................................................149 5.4 Population Problems ..............................................................................................155 5.5 Food Problems .......................................................................................................159 5.6 Economic Problems ...............................................................................................166 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................171 Chapter Six: Post-Cold War Mongolian-Sino Societal Relations ............................175 6.1 Mongolian-Sino Social Relations ..........................................................................179 6.2 Mongolian-Sino Social Exchanges Through the IMAR........................................188 6.3 Mongolian Anti-Chinese Sentiment ......................................................................196 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................202 Chapter Seven: Mongolia’s Military and Security Relationship with China ..........204 7.1 Mongolia’s Security Strategy ................................................................................206 7.2 Mongolian-Sino Military Relations .......................................................................212 7.3 Mongolian-Russia Military Relations....................................................................218 7.4 Mongolian-US Military Relations .........................................................................221 7.5 Mongolian-Japanese Military Relations ................................................................226 7.6 Regional and International Security Cooperation..................................................230 Conclusion