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Crowds are made of people: Human factors in microscopic crowd models

Colin Marc Henein, B.C.S.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

Institute of Cognitive Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario, Canada August 2008

395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada

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Crowds are physical aggregations of people. There has been an interest in modelling crowds in order to determine the microscopic basis for emergent crowd behaviours. To date, most microscopic models focus more on spatial/physical factors than on human behavioural factors (or vice versa). The isolation of these approaches to crowd dynamics more generally was criticised by Sime, who advocated a more integrated perspective.

We identify microscopic human behaviour simulation, implemented at the heart of micro scopic movement models, as a way to act on Sime's concerns. We offer the Microscopic Human Factors methodology to guide this integration: describing (or describing a hypothesis for) a behaviour in the world, taking an individual perspective in describing the essential aspects of the behaviour, and tightly integrating these aspects within an appropriate microscopic formalism.

We present three demonstrations of the methodology. We add to a prominent microscopic model simulations of voluntary pushing (and an accompanying simulation offeree and safety), discovery/communication of spatial information, and front-to-back communication (which has not been previously formalised). Key findings of the demonstrations were that (i) limited numbers of agents (modelled individuals) at the rear of a crowd can cause injuries and jamming near the front by triggering and targeting the pushing and leaning forces of others, (ii) knowledge differences lead to behavioural heterogeneity that in highly driven crowds can provoke injuries (that can be resolved through communication) as agents work at cross-purposes; (iii) our conception of front-to-back communication