Transition Report 2011
Crisis and Transition: The People’s Perspective Around Lasting crisis impact the region Baltic countries still about 10% below pre-crisis output levels
The impact of the global 120 crisis is still present in many 115 transition economies, even 110 as a recovery took hold – a 105 recovery now under threat 100 Real GDP (2008 Q1 = 100) from a much less benign 95 external environment. 90 The 2010 Life in Transition 85
Turkey
Central Asia Central
states
Europe
Central Central Baltic SEE Russia 80 EEC
Survey reveals that the crisis hit many people in the 97.8
88.2 98.8 region hard at an individual 98.8 111.1 114.7 105.9 level. Crisis impact has EEC- Eastern Europe and the Caucasus in turn lowered people’s SEE- South-eastern Europe support for democracy and markets, but also induced a change in attitudes against the system in place in 2009, on balance resulting in higher support levels in many CIS countries.
Obstacles to healthy post-crisis growth Business start-ups fail due to lack of capital
Country abbreviations
Albania ALB Poland POL Armenia ARM Romania ROM Azerbaij an AZE Russia RUS Belarus BEL Serbia SER Bosnia and Herz. BOS Slovak Republic SVK Bulgaria BUL Slovenia SLO Croatia CRO Tajikistan TJK Estonia EST Turkey TUR FYR Macedonia FYR Turkmenistan TKM Georgia GEO Ukraine UKR Hungary HUN Uzbekistan UZB Kazakhstan KAZ Kyrgyz Republic KGZ France FRA Latvia LAT Germany GER Lithuania LIT Italy ITA Moldova MDA Sweden SWE 13.6 4.5 51.6 Mongolia MON United Kingdom UK Change in Competitors Not enough Montenegro MNG personal situation threatened me capital
Percentage of failed entrepreneurs, by reason for failure Households hit hard The region in numbers in the crisis Wages reduced for almost a third of them
29.3% Wages reduced 8the number of countries where improvements in competition policy warranted a transition indicator upgrade
19.8% Household member lost job
13.6% Reduced remittances % 14 University graduates are 14% more likely to support democracy than those with 13.1% Wages delayed or suspended a primary education
8.1% Working hours reduced
3.2% Family business closed % 38of the households in the transition region had to reduce staple food consumption as a result of the crisis, compared with only Crisis impact on 11 per cent in western Europe democracy support Increased in the CIS but dropped in the new EU countries % 13 of people in the transition region have tried to set up a business
Go to page 96 to see images from around the region
12.0 1.6 2.1 Too much Couldn’t aff ord Couldn’t aff ord bureaucracy the protection the bribes payments About this report
The EBRD is changing people’s The EBRD seeks to foster the transition lives and environments from to an open market-oriented economy central Europe to central Asia. and to promote entrepreneurship in Working together with the countries from central Europe to central private sector, we invest in Asia. To perform this task effectively, the projects, engage in policy Bank needs to analyse and understand dialogue and provide technical the process of transition. The purpose of advice that builds sustainable the Transition Report is to advance this understanding and to share our analysis and open-market economies. with our partners.
The responsibility for the content of the Transition Report is taken by the Offi ce of the Chief Economist. The assessments and views expressed in the Transition Report are not necessarily those of the EBRD. All assessments and data in the Transition Report are based on information as of early October 2011.