ENRIQUE GRAUE WIECHERS Rector ENCUENTROS2050 $30.00 LEONARDO LOMELÍ VANEGAS Secretario General Encuentros2050, Año 1, Número 4 (Abril 2017) es una publicación mensual, ALBERTO VITAL DÍAZ editada por la Universidad Nacional Autónoma Coordinador de Humanidades de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P. 04510, a través de la Coordinación de Humanidades, MALENA MIJARES Presidente Carranza 162, Col. Villa Coyoacán, Coordinadora de Divulgación Delegación Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P. y Publicaciones 04000, teléfono: 5554-5579 y 5554-8513 ext. DIEGO GARCÍA DEL GÁLLEGO 128. correo electrónico: revistaencuentros2050 Secretario Técnico @gmail.com, Editor responsable: María del Programa Editorial Alejandra Ordóñez Cruickshank. Certificado de Reserva de Derechos al uso Exclusivo No. 04-2017-021412463800-102, otorgado por Encuentros2050 el Instituto Nacional del Derecho de Autor, Certificado de Licitud de Título y Contenido MARÍA ORDÓÑEZ CRUICKSHANK No. en trámite, otorgado por la Comisión Jefa de redacción Calificadora de Publicaciones y Revistas Ilustradas de la Secretaria de Gobernación, impresa por Litográfica Ingramex, S.A. de NÚMERO 4, ABRIL DE 2017 C.V., Centeno 195, Col. Granjas Esmeralda, C.P. 09819, Delegación Iztapalapa, Ciudad de México, este número se terminó de imprimir el día 24 de abril de 2017, con un tiraje de ROGELIO RANGEL 1000 ejemplares, impresión tipo offset, con Diseño gráfico papel bond de 120 gramos para los interiores y cartulina sulfatada de 250 gramos para PABLO RULFO los forros. El contenido de los artículos es Coordinador de ilustradores responsabilidad de los autores y no refleja el punto de vista de la UNAM. Se autoriza la GERARDO CASTILLO reproducción de los artículos (no así de las Ilustraciones Relaciones bilaterales imágenes) con la condición de citar la fuente y de que se respeten los derechos de autor. ONIRIA HERNÁNDEZ Ilustraciones Nuevas configuraciones Distribuída por la Coordinación de Huma- nidades, Presidente Carranza 162, Col. Villa NORA FERRARO Coyoacán, Delegación Coyoacán, Ciudad de Ilustraciones Donald Trump México, C.P. 04000. ENCUENTROS2050 The complex relationship between INTRODUCTION Mexico and the United States has been one of mutual dependence, leading to everything from the bit- terest hostility to entrepreneurial and cultural friendship. However, since our neighbor’s recent presidential elections, the ties between our two nations have been seriously affec- ted and weakened. Trump’s anti-immigrant, anti-Mexican discourse maintains Mexico and the United States in one of their worst diplomatic crises ever. So, taking a new look at the situation this has sparked is important and neces- sary. With the support of the Center for Research on Nor- th America (cisan), we have developed this fourth issue with three of today’s pivotal crosscutting themes: bilateral relations, so intensely affected in recent months; secondly, 4 the new configurations, above all in trade, that have co- me out of Donald Trump’s election; and thirdly, Donald Trump himself. What are the implications of the Mexi- can government’s having sustained a relatively lukewarm, cautious position? How should our country respond in the face of this new president’s intemperate decisions? One thing is certain: we cannot just sit back and do nothing in the face of a unilateral, xenophobic immigration policy, nor, as some cisan researchers say here, can we ignore our country’s own internal failings, the main causes of illegal migration to the United States. MARÍA ORDÓÑEZ CRUICKSHANK C O N T E

BILATERAL RELATIONS

8 11 15 NEW COURSES TRUMP’S ANTI-IMMIGRANT TRUMP’S THREATENING FOR MEXICO AND EXECUTIVE ORDERS ADMINISTRATION: THE UNITED STATES MÓNICA VEREA A REFLECTION SILVIA NÚÑEZ GARCÍA This article analyzes the ABOUT MEXICO Given the discord bet- immigration measures ROSÍO VARGAS ween Mexico and the the new U.S. president In times of political United States, we must has taken. They reflect attacks, the author in- reframe our national their creator’s xeno- vites us to reflect about project. Once we ha- phobic vision and leave our country’s respon- ve achieved a new vi- the millions of undo- sibility in having got- sion that jibes with cumented migrants in ten to this point. What the reality of today’s his country even more does this say about our world, we will be able vulnerable than before. domestic situation? to create new links with U.S. society.

4 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 NEW CONFIGURATIONS

20 23 25 MEXICO AND CANADA MAKING AMERICA TRANSFORMATIONS IN SINCE TRUMP TOOK OFFICE GREAT AGAIN U.S. FINANCIAL MARKETS OLIVER SANTÍN PEÑA ELIZABETH GUTIÉRREZ ROMERO CLAUDIA MAYA Trump has repeatedly ques- One of the new U.S. Claudia Maya ex- tioned nafta, calling it the president’s campaign pro- plains how Donald worst agreement in his- mises was to return ma- Trump’s economic agen- tory. This article analyzes nufacturing jobs to the da, beyond favoring Mexico and Canada’s re- United States. This has Republican interests, actions as well as how this been one of the main will actually speed up stance affects the relations reasons he has criti- another great crisis be- of the countries involved. cized nafta. Will the cause of the dismantling agreement’s renegotia- of the Dodd-Frank Act. tion return these types of jobs to U.S. citizens? N T S

DONALD TRUMP

30 34 37 THE UNITED STATES: ON THE YELLOW PLANET WAR ON THE ENVIRONMENT A HEADLESS STATE GRACIELA MARTÍNEZ-ZALCE EDIT ANTAL JOSÉ LUIS VALDÉS UGALDE Many have said that One of the main casual- The author explores the the team that created ties of Donald Trump’s figure of Donald Trump The Simpsons predic- political win has been and the disheartening ted Donald Trump’s the environment. His measures he took imme- presidency. Graciela statements against the diately after taking offi- Martínez-Zalce inves- theory of climate chan- ce. This has undoubtedly tigates what really ge make us ask whe- created enormous chaos happened and expla- re his environmen- in the U.S. government. Is ins the political po- tal policy will lead. it possible that this appa- sition of the creators rent disorganization could of the series, a popu- be a tactical weapon? lar icon of our time.

ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 5

BILATERAL RELATIONS NEW COURSES FOR MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES SILVIA NÚÑEZ GARCÍA

onald Trump’s presidency will impact the United States’ rela- tionship with our country for what is today an undefined pe- riod in the future. The impacts less than two months into his term force us to face huge chal- lenges due to the multiple vital interests at stake (migration, security, jobs, trade), which represent the need to profoundly reframe our Dnational project. This should not lead us to un- derplay the ties uniting us with U.S. society as a whole, but at the same time, obliges us to be self-critical with regard to our own domestic

8 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 BILATERAL RELATIONS The cultural difference between the United States and Mexico is crisscrossed by two main languages, Spanish and English, and intense, dif- ferent national histories with their correspond- ing ethnocentric, idiosyncratic visions. In addi- tion, inequality is deepening in both countries, which rank second and third, respectively in the oecd countries on the Gini coefficient scale.1 All these factors should not have been ignored, and in the future should not continue to be ignored, if we renew the idea of building a shared future. All the actions taken in renegotiating nafta must be oriented to the well-being of the pub- lic, the pillar of Mexico and the United States’ democracies, and not only to very particular ac- tors like businesspersons, corporations, inves- tors, and government actors, which have con- centrated both benefits and decision-making. If we are to move ahead toward a new era of nafta, it will be critical for both countries to develop a creative, intelligent strategy to com- municate to their citizens the benefits in re- structuring this regulatory framework. Some ex- perts even recommend looking for a new name for the agreement, something I consider ideal for attracting the attention of a broad region- al and international audience. To do that, pay- circumstances and demands that we empha- ing special attention to the critics of the cur- size diversifying our international relations. rent agreement is a sine qua non for its analysis One problem shown over the 22 years the and future projections that would benefit our North American Free Trade Agreement (naf- society. The emphasis on the free market and ta) has been in effect is that, despite having the lack of inclusionary criteria have sparked given rise to innumerable encounters between contradictory visions about its impact, which academics, artists, professionals, and count- President Trump has used cunningly to justify less actors from Mexican and U.S. civil soci- foreign companies’ eliminating jobs in Mexico. ety —I will forego the issue of Canada so as not Several sectors of North America have very to distract from the topic at hand—, these en- rapidly become interdependent, while in aca- counters have not been measured by a yard- demia, the advances have been only preliminary. stick that might help us deal today with the For this reason, Mexico will have to emphasize complex times we are facing. We should re- the importance of human capital as an axis for member that the numbers for economic and development. This is where the role of educa- trade variables are the ones that continue to tion and public universities becomes strategic. be underlined as important. But in this new As a result of this complex reality, a new stage stage, we should not miss the opportunity to that will deepen our social and cultural inter- identify and systematize other dimensions action with the United States is thrust upon us. of interaction among the three countries. These two spheres are unequivocally key to cre- It is precisely on this plane of interaction ating the trust that is indispensable between our that synergies capable of overcoming the bar- countries. That trust is constructed gradually, riers between different cultures can be bol- and therefore knowledge and understanding of stered. This is a dilemma that, amidst the cur- rent discord between our two countries, has 1 According to 2014 oecd data, on the Gini put us up against the wall because we un- coefficient scale, Mexico’s income inequality ranks derestimated the nativist influence among 0.45, while the United States is 0.39. See https:// an important sector of white society. www.oecd.org/centrodemexico/estadisticas/.

BILATERAL RELATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 9 dimension of this conglomeration of nations,3 based on socially responsible cooperation with an eye to improving the living conditions of all the inhabitants of their geographical space. We must recognize that North America has not gone beyond being an idea under con- struction. It has not been given an identity that would make the societies of its member countries mesh. We are experiencing a diffi- cult moment in Mexico, since our situation has changed; it is different from what it was like two decades ago. This makes it necessary to meet the inevitable challenge of taking a fresh look at how to relate to our two neighbors to the north. But this is the case of U.S. society as a whole, not just its population of Mexican origin. We do not know how far President Donald Trump will take his disruptive ideas and, as the “other” must be cornerstones in the face of Mexicans, we are in no position to be able to a wall that shows us that ancestral geographi- contain them. Therefore, we must trust that cal proximity is not enough. From here, we can the rule of law will continue to prevail in the ask ourselves what elements are indispens- United States, and, that organized civil soci- able for weaving a receptive attitude capable of ety, taking into account its importance for gen- strengthening empathy between Mexican and erating social capital throughout the coun- U.S. society to reshape the future of our region. try’s history, will continue to demand and Perhaps some of the answers to this question limit the executive branch’s arbitrary actions, may come precisely from the leaders of orga- basing itself on the Constitution, the sepa- nized civil society with transnational experience. ration of the three branches of government, To conclude, we should remember the pos- and the system of checks and balances. tulates that re-launched the Association of Optimism is an effort of will. Regardless of the Southeast Asian Nations2 in 1997 as a refer- dark horizons, in democratic societies, the possi- ence point for our region. In addition to refer- bility of a positive change in the face of adverse ring to the market and different aspects of the scenarios always exists if the following key fac- economy, they underlined confidence as key for tors are brought into play: an informed, trained, exponentially expanding collective efforts and responsible citizenry with a will to change; a mutual aid among the ten member countries. social order where rule of law prevails; and the The scale of ASEAN’s integration could be inalienable guarantee of transparency and ac- characterized as holistic, since it includes eco- countability. Building this social order in Mexico nomic, political, security, and socio-cultural is our obligation and absolute priority. • components. However, its institutional struc- ture is what shows what is behind its great vi- Silvia Núñez García is a research- sion: the Socio-cultural Community is the key er and the director of the UNAM Center crosscutting policy that articulates the human for Research on North America.

2 See Association of Southeast Asian Nations 3 See ASEAN Socio-Cultural community, (ASEAN), http://asean.org/#. http://asean.org/asean-socio-cultural/.

10 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 BILATERAL RELATIONS TRUMP’S ANTI-IMMIGRANT EXECUTIVE ORDERS MÓNICA VEREA

n January 20, 2017, Donald J. Trump became the forty- fifth president of the United States. His populist inaugu- ral speech included incendi- ary, protectionist, highly xe- nophobic statements against immigrants and Muslims, as though they were all poten- tial terrorists. He classified mi- grants as enemies, the cause of all the evils Othat have taken away U.S. citizens’ jobs. During the presidential campaign, the Republican Party’s immigration debate stood out as extremely offensive because of its racial and ethnic emphasis, but it was particularly

BILATERAL RELATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 11 anti-Mexican. Among the Republicans, Trump out against the viability of building the wall distinguished himself as the most “Mexican- because they think it would be very cost- phobic” of all the candidates, making Mexico ly and does not really solve the problem.3 one of his favorite targets. Trump’s violent rhet- Trump seems to be unaware that the net oric, hate speech, and continual bullying have flow of Mexican undocumented Mexican im- already caused irreparable damage. When au- migrants has dropped substantially since thorities with public influence promote hate the 2008 economic crisis: from 2008 to 2014, speech, they legitimize socially unacceptable the number of undocumented immigrants attitudes and behavior and spread them to the stabilized at 11.3 million, having peaked at population. 12.2 million in 2007.4 By 2014, 5.6 million Unfortunately, the racists have come out of Mexicans made up half the total, 800,000 the closet, and, with that, multiplied the terms fewer than in 2009, when there were an esti- of verbal abuse, damaging to the very core im- mated 6.4 million undocumented Mexicans. migrants —particularly Mexicans— and the That is, net Mexican migration has arrived at perception of Mexico and Mexicans. an equilibrium point, “zero net migration.” In his first week as president, Trump issued On the other hand, we know that 42 per- two executive orders that have had a negative cent of the undocumented population in 2014 impact on undocumented immigrants and their had entered the country with some kind of vi- families in the United States. This article will sa and stayed after it expired. This is another analyze them. reason the construction of the wall is illogical. Numerous experts have stated that it would Border Security and Immigration be ineffective, among other things, in terms Enforcement Improvements (January 25) of security; unviable geographically; and that it would severely affect the environment, Donald Trump’s premise is that the federal gov- have a negative impact on bi-national com- ernment has not fulfilled its responsibility of munities, and violate private property rights. securing the border. Therefore, this decree aims As a result, those who would get rich by to increase border security to more effectively building the wall, in addition to construc- monitor the flow of “illegal” immigrants, hu- tion companies, would mainly be the hu- man trafficking, and acts of terror, which con- man smugglers or traffickers who have stitute a danger and a significant national secu- now substantially increased their rates for rity threat. Therefore, it considers it urgent to: bringing in undocumented immigrants.5

Build a wall along the southern bor- der with Mexico,1 at a cost of be- 3 Members of Congress expect the Executive to present a)tween US$15 billion and US$25 its proposals for increased spending with corresponding billion. Since he was a candidate, Trump cuts in other budget items. In the case of hiring more has threatened that Mexico will pay for border agents and immigration officials and building the it, despite our having repeatedly said border wall, Trump fielded a proposal to increase the that we would not. He has proposed dif- Department of Homeland Security budget by 6 percent to US$43.8 billion. ferent mechanisms to cover the possi- 4 Data from pew Hispanic Center. ble cost, like a 20-percent tax on exports 5 In November 2016, the smugglers were charging 2 from Mexico, a tax on remittances, or approximately US$3,500 per crossing, without on immigrants’ social security payments. guaranteeing a safe trip. Starting in January, the cost Fortunately, a growing number of congress- jumped to up to US$8,000, mainly due to fear of Trump’s persons, including Republicans, have come deportation policy.

1 The current border wall stretches 1,000 kilometers along the almost 3,200-kilometer border. 2 According to Mexico’s Central Bank data, in 2016, US$26.80 billion in remittances were sent back to Mexico, a historic high and 8.8 percent more than in 2015. Many million families depend on these monies to survive.

12 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 BILATERAL RELATIONS Increase the pace of detaining un- this through the Secure Communities documented immigrants suspected of policy.7 To be able to implement his b)breaking federal or state laws. This deportation program, Trump propos- policy is nothing new. “Deporter-in-Chief” es hiring 5,000 additional border patrol President Obama deported 2,700,000 undoc- agents, subject to availability of resourc- umented immigrants, and Bush, 2,000,000, es, that is, to increase the current num- during their respective two-term administra- ber of 19,828 by 25 percent. For greater tions. In contrast with Bush, Obama’s objec- effectiveness, Trump estimates that he tive was to deport undocumented immigrants would have to empower state bodies, charged with crimes, without necessarily that is, local police, even more, using specifying what kind of crime.6 Obama did section 287 (g) of the law so they can carry out the functions of immigration officers. I believe he will meet with op- 6 The deportation of criminals practically doubled position in both Congress and local po- from 2008 to 2015, spiking from 31 percent to 59 percent litical bodies with regard to the budget. of all deportees. 7 This program was in force between 2008 and 2014, and in 2015 was replaced by the Priority Enforcement Program.

BILATERAL RELATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 13 Improve —build if necessary— Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist and operate more detention cen- Entry into the U.S. (January 27) c)ters for undocumented immigrants near the border, and assign immigra- This executive order, known as the “travel tion judges to those centers. The cur- ban,” suspended for 90 days the entry of immi- rent backlog of people awaiting hearings grants from seven countries: Iran, Iraq, Libya, before a judge to see if they are subject Somalia, the Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. It sus- to deportation is enormous. Often peo- pends the Refugee Admissions Program for 120 ple are deported to Mexico because they days and the entry of Syrian refugees indefi- say they are Mexican when they are not. nitely. A Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals judge In a February 22 White House memo- temporarily suspended the implementation of randum, Trump states that undocument- this decree, stipulating certain provisions as un- ed immigrants who have been detained constitutional. In the face of this, in his arro- will be sent back to the place where they gant, authoritarian style, to try to prevent the entered from, regardless of their coun- supposed entry of Islamic terrorists, one of his tries of origin. In this regard, we must campaign promises, Trump issued a revised ex- demand the U.S. authorities prove that ecutive order on March 6, which blocks the en- those they deport are actually Mexican, try of first-time visitors from six of the seven and that they specify the crime they have aforementioned countries, with the only excep- committed, showing, therefore, that they tion of Iraq, for the same period. The new order have been subject to legal deportation. suspends the entry of Syrian refugees for 120 days, and cuts the total number of refugees to 50,000 a year. Many consider this not only an act of bad faith, but also an anti-Muslim policy. Surprisingly, in his February 28 speech to Congress, Trump proposed that the Democrats work with the Republicans to achieve a comprehensive immigration re- form. He said he would be willing to ana- lyze a policy to grant entry to skilled work- ers and for “those undocumented immigrants” who were the least likely to use federal as- sistance or compete for low-paying jobs. Meanwhile, the 11 million undocument- ed immigrants are very vulnerable, much more so than in the recent past, and are suf- fering greatly due to the fear of deporta- tion and its resulting painful family separa- tion. It is important to underline the efforts U.S. civil society organizations and churches are making to protect them, as well as the ac- tivities of the 50 Mexican consulates to sup- port our defenseless fellow citizens. •

Mónica Verea is a researcher and was the first director of the unam Center for Research on North America, from 1989 to 1997.

14 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 BILATERAL RELATIONS TRUMP’S THREATENING ADMINISTRATION: A REFLECTION ABOUT MEXICO ROSÍO VARGAS

onald Trump’s statements about building the wall on the southern border are a geo- strategy toward Mexico re- flected in his discourse: “And remember, we are getting the bad ones out. These are bad dudes. We’re getting the bad ones out, OK? We’re getting the bad — if you watch these people, it’s like gee, that’s so sad. We’re get- Dting bad people out of this country, people that shouldn’t be whether it’s drugs or murder or

BILATERAL RELATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 15 other things.”1 A discourse like this is designed theories are for something and for someone; that to justify invasions or hostile policies against is, he questions their neutrality. Some theories countries that do not bow to Washington’s dic- lack historic, geographic, and factual grounding tates. The message comes in a context of hos- and become precepts without ever having been tile diplomatic actions against Mexico that tested against reality. Their proponents pre- show great disdain and break with its previous fer to adjust reality to them rather than change ally and partner in North America. Could we their theories. If reality clashes with their sup- Mexicans be in any way responsible for coming positions and precepts, they do not hesitate to to this state of affairs? What does it say about change it. But we have to go with the original the domestic situation in Mexico? Could we look values and unmask ideological simulations. into the deeper causes? I am not trying to repro- Today’s prevailing beliefs (neoliberalism) have duce the old idealism-materialism debate (Caso led to the creation of a corrupt, subverted social / Lombardo) in this small space, but I would project that no longer represents all Mexicans. like to reflect on the importance of values like It is necessary to make clear that the social is the roots of a society’s behavior and how ele- not the same as the ideological, that those who ments underlie the development of theories and judge populisms have an elitist structure to their concepts that are tools in our academic work. thinking. In the sphere of politics, this has trans- I want to emphasize the importance of values lated into a constitutional normativity that has and how they are distorted as a cause of social undermined the bases for both the nation-state dysfunction, which it is up to Mexico to resolve, and the welfare state. It is accompanied by a se- putting to one side our neighbor’s brutal exer- ries of practices that make the dividing line be- cise of power and racism in this field of politics. tween what is legal and what is illegal practi- Society takes as a given a theory’s veracity, cally invisible and easily crossed. Outsourcing, objectivity, and rigor, but, as Robert Cox says, lobbying, tax breaks, the free flow of capital, tax havens, and corrupt, corporatist unionism are 1 http://time.com/4682023/cpac-donald-trump- all part of day-to-day living. In academia, we are speech-transcript/. dominated by notions dressed up as modernity

16 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 BILATERAL RELATIONS like competitiveness and efficiency, which end There is no such thing as ideological neutral- up justifying everything. We have taken them ity when science is being done, but the rigorous- on board because they promise us transparen- ness of the application of the scientific method cy and corporate ethics, while they come no- leads to a better understanding of reality, and where near to affecting the imposition of power, the incorporation of values into science would the problem of asymmetries of all kinds, and serve to achieve a higher social good. If we un- the differences in capabilities that, due to these derstand that the highest value would be the characteristics, lead to permanent injustice. one that would allow for the long-term surviv- The checks and balances the writers of the al of society, using rationality that benefits the Constitution originally incorporated into the largest part of society would be an optimum political system they designed have been re- solution. On the contrary, a society that suf- placed by the construction of “consensuses,” fers from anomie, without discipline, in which in which arrangements are made in the inter- crime and corruption prevail, is a dying soci- est of certain groups in power. The legislative ety. Covert or excused theft, crime, injustice, and judicial branches have become pillars of and psychological damage put at risk not only support for the Executive’s initiatives and the those who commit these acts, but society itself. guarantors of the irreversibility of its policies. Ethics favor survival. The need to incorporate Without any great analysis, we have bought the right values is not limited to our officials so into the discourse that justifies the private ap- they stop systematically lying and design poli- propriation of common goods that are now cies that favor everyone. We academics should called “goods of humanity.” These discours- also stop taking on board alien theories in or- es point to the supposed needs of capital in der to maintain the status quo in the interna- developing nations, underlining the corrup- tional hierarchy, and become the generators tion of their societies in order to “access” of theories and approaches to our benefit. • their resources, lands, and territories, pres- suring to open up strategic sectors and turn Rosío Vargas is a researcher at the unam over assets and markets to big corporations. Center for Research on North America.

BILATERAL RELATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 17

NEW CONFIGURATIONS MEXICO AND CANADA OLIVER SANTÍN PEÑA SINCE TRUMP TOOK OFFICE

he world media spent the paradigms imposed by the political November 8, 2016 and financial oligarchies, not only of the following the U.S. United States, but also of a large part of elections. The com- the world. And precisely, one of those mon denominator in paradigms chosen by Donald Trump to the last hours of the question the establishment was free day was maps of the trade, particularly the North American states with the impla- Free Trade Agreement (nafta), which he cable spread of the considered the worst trade deal in his- Republican red, pre- tory. This caused collateral damage to vailing against the increasingly pale, iso- the Mexican neoliberal model, which Tlated Democrats’ blue. TV announcers’ had cemented a large part of its ideo- faces betrayed disbelief and, in some logical pillars in the functioning of naf- cases, sadness. The world couldn’t be- ta, presented as the paradigm of good lieve what was happening. Donald Mexico-U.S. relations. This strengthened Trump had won the elections in the precisely the idea that relations with the most powerful country in the world. United States had reached very com- Right away, the same media outlets be- plex levels of institutionality that guar- gan broadcasting neologisms like “post- anteed the operations almost by inertia. truth,” in a pitiful attempt to offer the However, the Mexican political class’s audience a coherent explanation for what feeling of security faded away when they considered incoherent: explaining Trump’s moved into the White House. how the power and wisdom of the tra- The fake certainty that free trade was ditional political class, as the possessor irreversible and unmovable in North of the truth, had been displaced by the America made the Mexican techno- unbridled emotions of the masses who, crats arrogant and self-satisfied with the in frank rebellion, dealt a harsh blow to country’s macro-economic performance

20 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 NEW CONFIGURATIONS thanks to nafta. But, at the same time, it made them scornfully insensitive to the extremely low wages paid to their workers, offered up from the very be- ginning as cheap labor to the great North American integration trade proj- ect. The Mexican technocrats’ contempt made it possible for the country to have the lowest minimum wage in all of Latin America by the end of 2016, even lower than Cuba’s and Venezuela’s, at the same time that the International Monetary Fund (imf) ranked Mexico as the world’s fifteenth largest economy. For this reason, the Trump adminis- tration’s alternative realities for nafta and Mexico, indiscriminately resort- ing to post-truths with a few Orwellian touches, have put the Mexican gov- ernment in a very bad position. Completely un-self-critical and ex- posed to the critiques of its own public opinion, it launched a dubious rap- prochement strategy in Washington. In charge of this was Luis Videgaray, Mexico’s minister of foreign relations, who has lent himself to the task of ne- gotiating the country’s destiny with the greatest stealth and discretion. since nafta came into effect, the fact tri-lateralism that Mexico has pushed At the same time that this storm is that, for Canada, Mexico has never for in any renegotiation of nafta. rages over Mexico and its entire po- stopped being a competitor in what the In this sense, Prime Minister litical class, the Canadian govern- Canadians consider their special rela- Trudeau’s February 2017 visit to the ment, whose relations with the United tionship with the United States. Just at United States, Trump’s warm wel- States are very similar but also enor- the moment when anti-Mexican senti- come, the very different treatment mously different from Mexico’s, de- ment circulates freely through the Oval given to Mexico, and Trump’s speech cided to begin a discrete strategy to Office, then, the opportunity opens up about the U.S. and Canada being al- get closer to Trump, based on their for Canada to finally strengthen its bi- lies and friends who have shed blood similar standard of living and long his- lateral relations with Washington. This is together defending common values tory of agreements of all kinds. This something the Canadian authorities them- around the world are all factors that was why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau selves have traditionally aspired to, and show that the current administra- send high-level officials to negotiate Wikileaks has revealed their attempts to tion in Washington sees its two neigh- a series of issues of common interest do so. Undoubtedly, this weakens the bors and partners very differently. This with their U.S. counterparts, including the possible renegotiation of nafta, which is why the prime minister him- self stated he would be happy to be- gin whenever the occasion arose. Now, while the governments of Ottawa and Mexico have reaf- firmed their relations and exchanges

NEW CONFIGURATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 21 together to safeguard nafta. However, taking into consider- ation the background, most prob- ably we will find ourselves in a situation in which trilateralism will sleep the sleep of the just with regard to many issues in the region. Thus, Mexico will have to try to manage the losses at the lowest possible cost. At the same time, Canada will try to make sure that its pragmatism and ex- plicit sympathy from the Trump administration will not expose the profound contradictions in- herent in welcoming controver- sial projects like the Keystone pipeline, which, after Trump’s January 2017 executive order, se- riously tarnishes Canada’s im- age won after the Paris climate change and environmental ac- cords. These issues are already polemical among environmental- ist groups and native Canadian communities, who the prime minister does listen to, but that is by no means the same as allow- entire scenario has certainly created take a clear public position that open- ing them to get in the way of his Liberal confusion and anxiety among Mexico’s ly expresses its stance about the fu- government’s corporate agenda. political class, which has even insist- ture of nafta: remaining silent offers Finally, it must be said that matters ed on an alliance with Canada to deal others the initiative and ambigui- are also not simple for Canada. The dis- with the United States on the issue ties are boring. In this sense, Mexico contentment and bitterness of broad of trade. However, it has not under- does have the ability to demand clar- sectors of the Canadian public vis-à-vis stood that, discourse notwithstand- ity from Canada; it can and must do so. the government is not due solely to the ing, Canada enjoys a different status This kind of demand must not be prime minister’s submissiveness and vis-à-vis Washington and will not put thought of as Mexico taking a hard line, low-profile attitude regarding Donald its standing at risk to defend Mexico. particularly if we take into account that Trump on environmental issues, but So, the real problem for the Mexican Mexico and Canada enjoy very active rather because Trudeau has not ful- government is not that Canada is tak- trade, putting each among the other’s top filled a series of campaign promises to ing too long to express authentic em- three main trade partners, surpassed on- reform the polemical electoral system pathy and solidarity with Mexico, a ly by the United States and China. But, or democratize the Canadian Senate. country that it normally perceives as these data seem to pale in the face of These cases will undoubtedly cre- corrupt, violent, and unstable. What the fear that Trump clearly strikes into ate additional pressure and affect the is really serious here is the Mexican the hearts of a large part of Canada’s po- Liberal government’s continuing be- government’s own express inabil- litical class, who are perfectly aware of yond the coming 2019 elections. • ity to offer a positive image to the their dependence on the United States. world. The Mexican authorities have Based on this, we can predict friendly Oliver Santín Peña is a researcher at also already taken too long to de- statements by Mexican and Canadian au- the unam Center for Research on North mand that their Canadian counterpart thorities in the media, promising to work America.

22 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 NEW CONFIGURATIONS MAKING ELIZABETH GUTIÉRREZ ROMERO AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

rom the beginning of his jumpstart manufacturing and its corre- campaign until his ap- sponding jobs. He has committed him- pearance before the Joint self to re-negotiating nafta to make it Session of Congress on “fair” for his country, although he hasn’t March 1, 2017, the 45th presi- clearly explained what that means, or dent of the United States, even to leaving it after its 23-year exis- has not stopped talking tence. The proposals to get manufactur- about the need to bring ing jobs back to the United States may manufacturing companies seem absurd to anyone who has analyzed and jobs back to his coun- the country’s productive structure and its try, arguing that they have gone mainly to changes: what Trump has proposed does FChina and Mexico. With regard to Mexico, not take into account the results of mul- this claim has been shored up by his criti- tiple, very well-documented studies by cisms of the North American Free Trade outstanding U.S. academics and institu- Agreement (nafta), which he has labeled tions that would refute his points of view. a negative, disadvantageous treaty for However, we must recognize that, elec- the United States. He has stated that it torally speaking, Donald Trump was suc- only benefitted Mexico due to an almost cessful in aiming this rhetoric at voters US$60-billion trade surplus favoring our in states that could determine the out- country since Mexican exports to the U.S. come of the elections —and did so—, have exceeded its imports of U.S. goods. since he quite correctly detected that Many of the new president’s interpre- their citizens were unhappy and angry, tations and statements about this issue since their incomes and standard of living include exaggerations, half-truths, and had dropped as a result of the econom- simplistic explanations. However, despite ic changes in their states. This was clear- this, he has promised that he will reverse ly exemplified in places like Michigan his country’s losses, also promising to and Indiana, previous bastions of

NEW CONFIGURATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 23 manufacturing in general and the au- high technology and quality and low to industry in particular and now what prices. The U.S. response for improving has been dubbed the U.S. Rust Belt. In its competitiveness was to relocate its these states and others in the same re- production inside the United States but gion, Trump’s discourse fell on fertile also abroad. Relocation was achieved by ground, where their citizens longed for segmenting production, moving man- the decades of economic boom they new jobs was no longer manufacturing, ufacturing processes to regions and had enjoyed until the 1980s, when but services; by 2014, it already concen- countries with lower costs; beginning manufacturing competitiveness prob- trated 80 percent of total employment. in the mid-1980s, Mexico became the lems began to emerge both on a na- Studies point to the expansion of ser- main destination for the auto industry. tional and an international level. vices as a result of the needs of manufac- As the preceding paragraphs indicate, Donald Trump has made no refer- turing, which depended to a greater ex- manufacturing jobs were already disap- ence to the studies that explain the tent on intermediate services in order to pearing in the decades prior to nafta’s sectoral, structural changes in the U.S. complete the productive cycle. Although taking effect. Finally, different analysts economy in the second half of the these services were linked to the organi- point to the fact that Trump’s promises twentieth century, and in those as- zation and management of production of returning manufacturing jobs to the pects more specifically linked to the (like legal and accounting services, en- United States seem to be even more dif- losses in production and manufactur- gineering, advertising, and financial ser- ficult to achieve due to increasing au- ing jobs in the Rust Belt in any terms vices), they were independent services. tomation in manufacturing today. • that go beyond demonizing nafta. Two studies stand out about the growth A first important fact in this process of services. One was headed by Thomas Elizabeth Gutiérrez Romero is a has been the beginning of a transi- Stanback, who pointed not only to the researcher at the unam Center for tion in the U.S. economy in the mid- preeminence of the growth of produc- Research on North America. twentieth century from a goods pro- tion-linked services, but also to those re- ducing economy to an economy of lated to health and education. Stanback’s service provision. This transformation study also underlined that services for can be seen through the concentra- producers themselves represented one- tion of jobs in the service sector com- fourth of national output in 1977, a per- pared to total employment: in 1950, centage higher than all of manufacturing. this sector already represented 51.7 On the other hand, Daniel Bell also an- percent of total jobs. Over time, it be- alyzed the transformation into a service- came clear that the main source of based society. From the early 1970s, he developed the concept of the post-indus- trial society, underlining how the United States was seeing the emergence of a new professional and technical class in which knowledge played a central part. Toward the end of the 1970s, parallel to this process, products in which the U.S. had been a firm leader, such as steel and car manufacturing, began to have com- petitiveness problems vis-à-vis Japanese and German products, characterized by

24 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 NEW CONFIGURATIONS CHANGES CLAUDIA MAYA IN U.S. FINANCIAL MARKETS

f Republicans in Congress support their own profits. However, we have to Donald Trump’s agenda for creat- remember that this law was implement- ing tariffs and tax breaks, it is not ed to contain the financial disaster cre- because they have changed their ated by the big corporations operating point of view about the econo- almost unrestrictedly in the markets. my. Most Republicans continue to Attempts at deregulation are by no fervently believe in the free mar- means new in the history of U.S. financial ket and oppose increased pub- services. We must not forget that the epi- lic spending. However, the presi- sodes of deregulation have led to grave dent’s economic agenda includes economic crises that seriously affected two points that favor their interests more: the general public and in which the gov- Itax cuts and financial deregulation. ernment has had to implement huge The prospect of deregulation helps ex- bail-outs of the large banks on the public plain why, since Donald Trump’s election, dime, with a high social cost. As Cornell the New York Stock Exchange has ris- University legal expert Saule Omarova en more than 10 percent, generating big says, financial reform is like a big onion: profits for companies and setting historic the more layers you peel off, the more records. Trump has signed an executive you cry. This makes it important to briefly order asking the Treasury Department to review U.S. financial deregulation to un- review financial regulation, including the derstand its motivation and character. Dodd-Frank Act, put in place after the Among the main trends in the 2007-2008 financial crisis by the Obama 1970s and 1980s U.S. financial mar- administration, and to evaluate if these kets are deregulation, globalization, rules are “reasonable and operational.” and the concentration and consolida- For critics of Dodd-Frank, this is a good tion of financial services. All this was thing. They see this law as a limitation the result of the development of finan- that strangles the U.S. economy —and cial innovation, increasing legislative

NEW CONFIGURATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 25 flexibility, and sharpening competi- competition was a powerful force be- Changes in Legislation tion between commercial banks and hind the consolidation of their services. other financial services institutions. This deregulation altered the way mar- After the 1929 crisis, the main con- During the 1980s, the financial mar- kets and institutions operated as part of cern of U.S. financial system regulat- kets became a source of liquidity and the changes in the terms of competition ing agencies was to maintain the health profits through new instruments. for markets and the quest for profits. of financial institutions and the stabil- Investment banking strategies fos- The dividing line between commer- ity of the system as a whole. However, tered the growth and domination of cial banks, investment banks, and in- down through the years, competition these markets, thus contributing to the surance companies began to disappear among the different institutions and change in the U.S. economy’s finan- long before Congress passed the glb sectors began to change these politi- cial structures: they went from manag- Act in 1999.1 Nevertheless, consolida- cal objectives, since the existing ten- ing credit to using financial markets. tion and integration also increased sys- sion managed to gradually dismantle These services were consolidated temic risk,2 and significantly expanded the distinction between institutions and as a function of a change in the way safety nets at the cost of taxpayers.3 products, making it increasingly diffi- of increasing profits and dealing with cult to sustain them. For example, the competition. Many of the transfor- 1 The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (glb), also known Glass-Steagall Act maintained the sepa- mations in this system were effected as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, ration between commercial and invest- by the development of the markets repealed the Glass-Steagall Act. ment banks. By 1999, pressure from themselves and not by modifications 2 The effects of systemic risk can change the risk politicians, regulators, and bankers look- to individual systems, particularly for large institu- in economic policy. These develop- tions with credit or liquidity problems. If risk to an in- ing out for their own interests led to the ments included technological prog- dividual institution is high, the possibility of it going passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, ress, innovations and improvements bankrupt or defaulting on its payments increases, ex- which changed all that, allowing dif- in financial conditions, excess capacity posing other institutions to risk, and sparking runs on ferent kinds of financial institutions to in some markets, and the consolida- banks or problems in the stock market. 3 Competition among banks and other financial tion of markets through deregulation institutions was limited by certain restrictions on the deposits, the Federal Securities network also ensu- and institutional change. Weakening kind of financial services each bank could offer, such res federal intervention to prevent crises or break- of restrictions on banking and financial as deposit guarantees. In addition to guaranteeing down of the banking system.

26 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 NEW CONFIGURATIONS merge. Companies like Merrill Lynch pressured for the New York Stock Exchange to relax the rules and allow their members to become public com- panies to avail themselves of fresh cap- ital. The Riegle-Neal Act of 1994 for- mally allowed banks to open branches in states other than where they were headquartered after a decade of un- dermining local control of finances. Deregulation of home loans led to the housing bubble that developed over the 30 years spanning the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush administra- without providing financing for pro- tendency to generate perverse in- tions. Certain regulations covering ductive investment in the economy as centives for huge risk taking seeking abusive loans were even eliminated. a whole. From the financial viewpoint, high yields. A regulation like Dodd- Banking regulation has always mmc is characterized by constant in- Frank gets in the way of this activ- been a power game among regula- stability and the negotiation of mas- ity and sets up certain legal protec- tors. This is how financial conglomera- sive amounts of resources bundled and tion for financial service users. This tion advanced, as did the banks that placed through financial intermediaries is the logic behind repealing it. were “too big to fail,” toward the con- in search of the greatest possible prof- Trump’s mandate to repeal Dodd- solidation and creation of a huge fi- itability, heedless of generating contin- Frank will most certainly speed up an- nancial services industry with close- ual speculative bubbles in stock mar- other big crisis. The problems of banks ly linked companies and commercial kets with high social costs. Examples of with high exposure in derivatives can banks. This is how they moved out- the most representative institutions, in already be seen; these same situa- side their traditional areas of busi- addition to investment banks, are pen- tions generated the 2007 financial ness unhampered by regulations. sion and mutual funds and insurance crisis. I think it is essential to exam- The great theoretician of finance, companies. The progressive elimina- ine these matters involving Mexico- Hyman Minsky, said that the prob- tion of Glass-Steagal regulations, re- U.S. relations that no one is talking lem underlying the post-WWII finan- placed by very permissive rules, led to about, since another crisis would cial system governed by Glass-Steagall the proliferation of “esoteric” activities have an important effect on Mexico regulations was that they gave rise to and the creation of opaque financial in- due to its financial dependence. • Money Management Capitalism (mmc). struments around the world. Far from This is a system characterized by the original idea of self-regulating mar- Claudia Maya is a researcher at the highly leveraged funds and that seeks kets and competition inhibiting risk, the Center for Research on North America maximization of profits in an atmo- trend was the opposite. Financial as- and professor at the unam School sphere in which risk is distributed set markets have shown an increasing of Political and Social Sciences.

NEW CONFIGURATIONS ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 27

DONALD TRUMP THE UNITED STATES: A HEADLESS STATE JOSÉ LUIS VALDÉS UGALDE

I

onald Trump’s main challenge since the start of his politi- cal adventure is to stop being a noisy, aggressive, angry can- didate and turn into a politi- cal actor whose performance is worthy of the high office of head of state. After listening to his inaugural speech, I do not think I am mistaken, un- fortunately, in predicting that Trump will con- Dtinue along the lines of being the provoca- teur he began as. Of all the tasks that Trump has effectively undertaken, that of being a provocateur and imbuing fear in his coun- terparts is perhaps the most outstanding.

30 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 DONALD TRUMP The inaugural speech did not depart from this vein that Trump has followed carefully but in- delicately since he made his successful bid for the presidency. Instead of reaffirming his cam- paign slogan “America First,” inviting the rest of the world to accompany him in making it the generalized protests that have taken place, happen as a shared effort, he opted for retreat- we cannot see in Trump the responsible, serene, ing into the divisive, paranoid, isolationist dis- prudent head of state anxiously awaited in the course he has always espoused and taking ref- United States and the world after the annus hor- uge in his electoral base, ignoring anyone who ribilis 2016 we thought we had left behind. didn’t vote for him —almost three million more In the framework of the strict fulfillment voters cast their ballots for Clinton, giving her of democratic etiquette that has always char- the win in the popular vote. In the words of acterized the U.S. political process, the mag- Leonardo Padura, “The flagrant exacerbation of nate’s loud, egocentric, massive affronts leave patriotic feelings by raising up their worst man- much to be desired with regard to the stability ifestation, nationalism, is at the center of his of U.S. governability. And, in effect, Trump be- words, which distort the ability, or even cloud gins his mandate with a 40-percent approval rat- the very need to notice his inexactitude, his half- ing (which he has maintained until this writ- truths (or half-lies) and his unethical behav- ing), and the rejection of the feminist and LGBT ior with regard to his political predecessors, es- movements, Latinos, and Afro-Americans, who pecially outgoing President Barack Obama.”1 the Saturday after his inauguration participat- Before his inaugural speech, Trump had al- ed in a mass march called by women. In short, ready mounted an attack on China, even at Trump has taken over the presidency with his le- the risk of a confrontation; he had disparaged gitimacy placed in doubt by broad sectors of so- Angela Merkel; and he had threatened Mexico ciety and the political class. Given the potential in a frankly colonialist tone. What stands out in risk this represents for the stability of his admin- his speech is that, ignoring the dimensions of istration, logic would seem to demand caution. the open economies in the framework of what But no. Trump once again acted like Trump. And is admittedly an unequal, limping globalization in his obfuscation, he launched a bitter attack —but for the time being the really-existing glo- on the establishment, free trade, and his prede- balization—, he accuses the usual suspects of cessors. A sad beginning that bodes ill for the stealing U.S. riches and jobs, without recogniz- future of governance and global equilibrium. ing the unemployment rate Obama left him, one of the lowest in history. Along these same lines, II Trump seems to seriously believe that the United States is a nation abused, exploited, and ma- Is Trump a brilliant strategist or a bulldozing de- ligned by those —China, Mexico, the European stroyer? Recent evidence about this public fig- Union, NATO, the UN— who are part of the in- ure, untainted by high morals, is that what he ternational system as a whole. The tone of this touches, he shatters, even what he loves the complaint allows us to suppose that Trump does most. This is the constant of the psychotic per- not intend to add, but to subtract. If his inter- sonality: destruction and, in passing, self-de- national alliances concentrated on Russia and struction. Trump is not just any right-wing pop- Israel, and he fulfills the absurd promise of sup- ulist; he is also an unpredictable actor who porting moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem repeatedly uses lies to construct his public’s and increasing the military budget by nine per- “common sense.” This is a manipulator-in-chief cent, it is very feasible to think that the com- and at the same time a distractor-in-chief. He ing years will bring tension and not an end to evades the truth by inventing his own based on hostilities, with all the implicit risks for peace falsehoods that end up being imposed on each and world and regional security. Globally and listener in turn. This is known as “post-truth.” domestically, given the popular vacuum ob- And when that doesn’t work, he uses coercion, served at the Mall during his inauguration and blackmail, and the vociferous threats suited to a despot. His tyrannical personality has already 1 Leonardo Padura, “La conjura con- manifested itself in the few days he has occu- tra América,” El País, January 27, 2017. pied the presidency. The strategist-in-chief is

DONALD TRUMP ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 31 beginning to become what he really is: a petty reports do exist of resistance by Republican gambler with crazy, irrational ideas more than Party members to the building of the bor- any profound ideas —but, take note, with the der wall due to its expense and ineffective- most overwhelming nuclear power on the planet ness. China has firmly reacted to the at- and an economy that still dominates the world’s. tacks with its own threats of toughening up This is no small thing. His decisions have turned its own policy. European Council President the White House upside down if we take into Donald Tusk has said that Trump is a threat account the news published in the Washington to the European Union, and the European Post about the confrontations between Stephen Parliament rejected Trump’s designated am- Bannon, Trump’s super-powerful, shadow ad- bassador, Ted Malloch, an entrenched anti- visor and liaison with the white suprema- Europeanist. In the United States, former CIA cists and Secretary of Homeland Security John Director General David Petraeus has warned Kelly, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, and that Trump is on the brink of destroying world Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who have pro- stability. So, Trump has been left alone in less tested Bannon’s excluding them from formulat- than a month. Where’s the great deal-maker? ing Trump’s multiple decrees, particularly the one banning the III entry of refugees previously ac- cepted and legal residents, in- Last February 13, General Michael Flynn, cluding green card holders.2 chief National Security Council advisor and According to the New Yorker,3 the most important White House spokesman the executive order that banned on the subject, had to resign when Trump U.S. entry to nationals of sev- supposedly demanded it. He did this for the en Arab countries, among them same reason that Obama fired Flynn from the Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, pre- Defense Intelligence Agency: his pathologi- sumably crafted by Bannon, and cal lying and tendency to believe in conspir- that was temporarily revoked acy theories, one of which was that Obama by a federal judge and then by was a “jihadist” who “laundered money” for an appellate court, was not re- Muslim terrorists, a gem very like the ones his viewed by anyone in the cabinet most recent boss tosses out continually. This with the authority to offer clari- time, however, his disgrace was the result of fying input. It was a decree intended to protect his participation in the dreaded Russian con- national security against terrorism, but it vio- nection that Trump’s team initiated before the lated the rights of people with permanent legal election. It would seem that, once Trump was residence, like those with green cards. Sufficient president-elect, Flynn spoke (illegally) with evidence also exists to show that the countries the Russian ambassador to the United States vetoed in the decree have not been responsi- about the possibility of lifting the sanctions ble for the fatal terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Obama had imposed on Moscow for Russia’s This initiative by Trump has been frozen, al- conspiratorial actions against the elections. though others have moved ahead that affect And, Flynn lied about this to Vice-President the gay community and women’s reproduc- Pence and perhaps to the FBI itself, which is tive rights. In addition, Trump has also under- conducting the investigation. Is it possible that taken a confrontation with Mexico, Iran, China, Trump and his inner circle committed trea- and Australia, whose prime minister he hung son by accepting a foreign government plot up on when the latter demanded the U.S. pres- against the U.S. political system? Did Trump ident honor Obama’s commitment to receive order that these contacts begin before becom- more than 1,000 refugees temporarily housed ing president? Did Trump know that Flynn was in his country. As a partial consolation to us, lying? All these questions are floating around the halls of power and seem to originate in all 2 Joseph Rogin, “Inside the White House—Cabinet spheres of partisan politics, the press (which Battle over Trump’s Immigration Order,” Washington has already begun to be censored), the secu- Post, February 4, 2017. rity apparatus, and broad sectors of society 3 Benjamin Wallace-Wells, “A Dangerously Isolated who fear that the TrumPutin alliance com- President,” The New Yorker, January 29. promises U.S. governance in the short term.

32 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 DONALD TRUMP The answers that come out of the investigations about the Russian connection already underway in different bodies will show how much Trump’s violation of the Constitution merits im- peachment, which is already under consideration at this early stage of his administration. Trump’s is the presidency that has most rapidly earned a little under 50-percent disapproval rating (eight days), a record in presidential politics. Just to compare him with his five predecessors, it took Reagan 727 days to drop to that level of disapproval; Bush, 1,336 days; Clinton, 573; George W. Bush, 1,205; and Obama, 936 days. Just as this downward trend continues, we should mention that this is also the first presi- dency that has run the risk so rapidly of impeachment, the first step toward removal from office. It remains to be seen wheth- er the Russian connection and the visible governmental chaos will lead there in the coming weeks. This chaos and the repudiation of the many executive orders lead me to won- der whether he isn’t using the chaos as a tactical weapon, especially with the awareness of the sadism that has dis- tinguished Trump, or if this is also a re- sult of the new administration’s com- plete incompetence. Republican Senator John McCain seemed to lean toward the later when he complained about the dysfunctionality of the national secu- rity apparatus and accused the White House of being the place where no- body knows who’s in charge and no- body knows who is determining poli- cy. General Tony Thomas, the head of the Special Operations Command, re- cently expressed his concern about the visible convulsion in the administration, saying that the U.S. government continues to exist amidst incredible confusion and hoping they resolve this because they are a nation at war. Trump’s lack of political rationality was already well known, but we didn’t expect to see him so swiftly discredited in pub- lic opinion due, for example, to his denunciation of the judges who ruled against his illegal travel ban on foreigners from several countries, who he blamed for future terrorist attacks. After that, Paul Krugman said that Trump seems to hope those attacks hap- pen, because they would show everyone how stupid it has been for them to restrict his power, chaotic and terrifying as it is. •

José Luis Valdés Ugalde is the former director of the Center for Research on North America, a full researcher at the unam, and a member of the Mexican Academy of Sciences.

DONALD TRUMP ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 33 ON THE YELLOW PLANET GRACIELA MARTÍNEZ-ZALCE

f course, it’s not that The Simpsons’ creative team is re- lated to Nostradamus or that its episodes are predictions of the future of U.S. society. All the episodes have been very intelligently written by fluc- tuating groups of irreverent scriptwriters over the almost three decades of the show’s run, and one of their main characteristics is Othat they’re constructed using three rhetori- cal devices: parody, irony, and, above all, sat- ire. Since they are full of numerous intertexts, they’re shot through with political references.

34 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 DONALD TRUMP This means that, in addition to many other things, The Simpsons has been catalogued as the most important pop phenomenon in the history of television. It has not only received entertainment awards like the Emmys or the then turns to Homer, according to Groening and People’s and Teen Choice Awards, but others says, “Hey, we’re just like the Waltons. We’re like the prestigious Peabody Award in 1997, praying for an end to the Depression, too.” given for excellence in journalism or documen- The Republican Party headquarters in tary cinema, which the judges’ panel said was Springfield is where the series’ villains gather, given for the show’s sharp satire and social including Mr. Burns, Sideshow Bob, Rich Texan, criticism through humor leading to reflection. Rainier Wolfcastle, Count Dracula, Dr. Hibbert, Its creator Matt Groening is a declared Krusty the Clown, and Birch Barlow, a parody Democrat. In a March-April 1999 Mother of Rush Limbaugh. They meet there to plot evil Jones interview, journalist Brian Doherty told deeds in an ominous, stereotypical, horror-mov- him that most satire has social or political ie-like castle, surrounded by darkness, lighten- roots and stems from some sort of indigna- ing, and storm clouds. This simple setting is in tion; he then asked him what the source was itself a commentary both on the characters at- for his creations. Groening responded that, for tending the meetings and on their ideology. him, it’s not enough to note that most televi- During the last three presidential election cam- sion content is bad, stupid, and pernicious, paigns, the writers criticized them by present- but that his intention was to use an entertain- ing the circumstances in which Homer voted or ing product as a vehicle to show that televi- tried to vote. In 2008, in the twentieth season, sion is structured to keep us distracted. With during what is known as the “couch gag” dur- his work, he attempts to nudge the viewer ing the credits, Homer tries to vote for Obama, to expose the way in which the media ma- but the machine changes his vote. Every time nipulates and exploits us. So, the best, most he corrects it, the machine assigns his vote to entertaining way to do that is to hit hard at “President” John McCain. The gag ends with the rules of U.S. culture, commenting on the Homer saying, “One minute. This machine injustices and contradictions of our age. is rigged. This doesn’t happen in the United Researching about The Simpson’s politi- States! Maybe Ohio, but not the United States!” cal commentary after 615 episodes is fa- as the machine kills him. In 2012, Homer vot- cilitated by an obsessive review of the ref- ed for Mitt Romney. As a prize, the machine erences made on pages and pages of fan lets him see the candidate’s tax return, which comments. These include, among many oth- shows that Romney received fraudulent rebates; ers, for example, a list of presidents from since Homer threatens to denounce him to the George Washington to Barack Obama and all press, the machine sucks him up and sends him the times they have appeared in the series. to China through a tube to manufacture little The very first episode of the 1991 third sea- U.S. flags on an assembly line. In 2016, stand- son (“Stark Raving Dad”) includes a refer- ing in line, Homer is approached by stranger ence to then-President Bush. In a 2007 inter- who tries to convince him to vote for Trump view with Playboy magazine, Groening states because he’ll build a wall to keep out beauty that the president had publically complained queens who eat too much and he’ll make Russia about the program’s values, saying that his great again. When Homer fights with him, he administration would try to keep strengthen- rips off his mask and the man turns out to be ing the U.S. family to make it more like the Vladimir Putin, who is actually on the voter Waltons and less like the Simpsons. The pro- rolls while Homer isn’t. After voting, Putin says ducer said that Bush made these comments that Trump is winning by 102 percent, and the on a Monday and that the show’s writers im- scene ends with the demolition of the Kremlin, mediately developed a scene for the very next which turns into a new Trump casino slated show on the following Thursday —at that time new episodes only came out once a week, on Thursdays—, featuring the Simpsons sitting in front of the TV watching a tape of the real George H. W. Bush making this statement. Bart

DONALD TRUMP ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 35 concluded, the writers expected that he would build enormous monuments to himself, but not that the first one he built would be a wall. What then was an absurd joke became a re- to open in January 2017. These three satirical ality, and, from 2015 to 2017, the references to shorts refer both to Republican politicians’ cor- candidates, elections, the president-elect, and ruption and to failings in the electoral system. the sitting president have intensified. In July It has been widely circulated that the March 2015, the preview of the twenty-sixth season, 2000 eleventh season episode “Bart to the “Trumptastic Voyage” refers, on the one hand, Future” mentions Donald Trump as the presi- to buying votes —on the street, a man comes dent who proceeded Lisa Simpson, the first het- up to Homer to ask him if he cares who is go- erosexual president of the United States, and ing to become president and when he says no, that she had inherited from him a deficit that the man pays him to vote for Trump— and, on bankrupted the country. In a March 2016 inter- the other, to the inexplicable fascination ordinary view in the Hollywood Reporter, when it was al- people have with the businessman. In this case, ready clear that Trump would be the Republican the candidate’s hair hypnotizes Homer, who asks presidential hopeful, the 2000 episode’s head whether it will cure his baldness if he touches writer, Dan Greaney, explained that they includ- it. A February 2016 promo for season 27 features ed the line on purpose, as an apparently unim- “The Debateful Eight,” in which the satire is about the ridiculously low level of debate among the pre-candidates, which gives Marge night- mares. Homer then proposes that, in order to for- What then was an absurd joke get that reality is like a nightmare that can ruin your life, she visualize a different country, one became a reality, and, from 2015 to in which Republicans, Democrats, and Donald Trump all get along even though the debate ends 2017, the references to candidates, in a knock-down, drag-out fight. Episode 600, “3 a.m.,” where everything is even worse, goes elections, the president-elect, and the into more detail and satirizes both the Clintons’ marriage and Trump as a public figure, who sitting president have intensified. reads himself to sleep with Hitler’s speeches and is depicted as a mannequin that has to be painted, blown up, and crowned with a little furry blond dog: a purely fatuous, empty image. portant joke; he thought that it had been a kind An iconic part of this pop phenomenon which, of a warning to the country, since having Trump in the last decade of the twentieth century and as president seemed like the last logical stop what has transpired of the twenty-first, has been before touching bottom. The point of the joke irreverent and transgressional, is Bart’s punish- was to underline the consequences of what they ment when, in every episode, he has to fill the saw as a United States that was going mad. For blackboard at school with a certain phrase. On the purposes of the plot, in which Lisa acts as January 13, 2017, in episode 603, a black hole the nation’s savior, the country had to be in the swallows the crows and clouds form part of the worst possible straits imaginable, and that’s why series title, and later Bart writes on the black- they picked Trump as her predecessor. Greaney board, “Being right sucks.” It was the first epi- added that the series had always focused on the sode broadcast after Trump’s inauguration. Once point at which U.S. culture goes over the line, again, the comment is implicit in the image of and Trump is the epitome of that. He went on to the little boy being punished laughing at the say that the Trump they wrote about then wasn’t punishment, and the sentence he writes makes as dark as the real one today. The episode, he fun of the ominous premonition the series’ cre- said, included nothing about walls, or round-ups ative team made as something so absurd that it of Mexicans, or Islamophobia. At that time, he would have been funny if it hadn’t come true. •

Graciela Martínez-Zalce is a researcher at the unam Center for Research on North America.

36 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 DONALD TRUMP WAR ON THE ENVIRONMENT EDIT ANTAL

he environment is one of the main targets in President Trump’s battle against time and facts in the real world, and cli- mate change —which he al- so identifies as some kind of trick by China— is one of the most visible heads to be lopped off. Simultaneously, resistance in defense of the environmen- tal achievements made over long decades and Tin particular under Obama, the “green presi- dent,” looks like it will be vast and hard. This means that in all probability, we will be see- ing a true war against the environment.

DONALD TRUMP ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 37 Under Trump’s presidency, the Republican Given that in the United States, the executive Party has enormous power: it controls the two branch cannot impede environmental regulations houses of Congress as well as most of the lo- that have been launched by local, state, or municipal cal legislatures and governorships, and the governments, those governments in California and Supreme Court also tips its scales toward many other places that have pioneered legislation the conservative side. Given that President for emission reduction will continue to enforce them Trump seems to know very little about the en- and move ahead. But, on the international level, the vironment, everything indicates that it will U.S. exit from the Paris Accords or a decision to not be the Republican conservative agenda that enforce them would come at a high cost. First of will guide environmental policy. This means all, the leadership role that Obama won with enor- that the environment will be the last prior- mous effort after the debacle of the Kyoto Protocol ity and steps will be taken to deregulate ev- would be lost. Secondly, China’s international posi- erything that can be deregulated; the jurisdic- tion would undoubtedly be strengthened. Third, the tion of the Environmental Protection Agency U.S. would have to deal, for example, with Europe’s (epa) will be reduced and its budget reduced demands to levy a carbon tax on U.S. exports. in order to eliminate obstacles considered un- And, of course, it would lose business opportuni- necessary to business and private interests. ties in the generation of clean, alternative energy.

Obsolete Discourses Dismantling What Obama Did

Even though Trump’s speeches should not be Obama fostered the environmental agenda to a taken very seriously, since what he says is of- large extent during his second term; given that he ten inconsistent and changeable, oscillating had a majority Republican Congress, naturally he between affirming the inexistence of climate did not create laws on the issue, but had to con- change and claiming to be an environmental- tent himself mainly with regulating through fed- ist himself, one thing is clear: President Trump eral agencies and issuing executive actions. obsessively pursues his campaign promises. One of the key pieces in his environmental legacy These imply understanding environmental- is the Clean Power Plan, which authorizes the epa to ism as a simple man-made barrier to stymie regulate greenhouse gas emissions and orders states economic growth and job creation; therefore, to reduce carbon emissions in their energy plants, dismantling environmental regulations is the which contribute 40 percent of total emissions. The main task at hand. It should be noted that size of the cut required varies according to the green- this view, which renounces the shared values house gas emissions in each state, and a broad gam- of a developed world, despite sounding a bit ut of options exists for achieving the objectives. For antiquated, has always existed in the United example, one option is to convince the energy plants States, but it used to be held by a minority. The to use gas instead of coal, to invest in renewable en- sad new situation is that now it is no one less ergy, etc. Until today, the plan has been attacked by than the president himself who holds this view several states and companies and has been taken be- and uses all the strength of his office for legiti- fore the District of Columbia Court of Appeals; this mizing beliefs, ideas, and values to further it. case may even go all the way to the Supreme Court. With regard to climate change, it was President George W. Bush (2001-2009) who finally made the change and had to admit that climate change did in fact exist and was caused by humanity. From that time on, no country on Earth had a head of state who openly denied this, and the signing and ratifi- cation of the Paris Accords on climate change in late 2015 expressed this reality. With the ex- ception of three countries (Syria, Nicaragua, and Uzbekistan), the rest of the world unani- mously supported these accords. This means that if Trump abandons the accords he will add his country to this sad list of regimes.

38 ENCUENTROS2050 ABRIL DE 2017 DONALD TRUMP Trump promised to eliminate the plan Trump intends to reduce federal sup- oil industry. Although he accepts the altogether; the only thing left to be de- port for wind and solar energy, as well fact that human beings have contrib- cided was the most effective, cheapest as eliminate current scientific research uted to climate change, he believes way of doing it: through the courts, by by federal agencies into clean energy. that the matter requires more debate. rewriting it, proposing a law to block In line with his campaign prom- Environmentalists do not believe it, or ordering the epa to go easy on the ise, as soon as he took office, Trump that Scott Pruitt will make decisions states that did not implement it. Among gave the green light to the very con- based on scientific facts, or enforce President Trump’s first executive or- troversial construction of the Keystone environmental laws, and they fear he ders was precisely one dictating that XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines will make a priority of private inter- this plan should be rewritten. However, that had been halted due to President ests over those of the U.S. public. environmentalist lawyers have already Obama’s environmental policies. Recently appointed Energy stated that it is not possible to imple- Amidst this kind of anti-environ- Secretary Rick Perry, identified with ment the order because the issue is al- mental logic, it comes as no surprise oil interests, has admitted that cli- ready in litigation. It should be expect- that when Trump announced an ex- mate change is partly the respon- ed, then, that the president will have to traordinary hike in military spending, sibility of human activity and that deal with extremely serious resistance. the first victim was precisely the epa. action must be taken. Secretary of Environmentalist groups like, for ex- State Rex Tillerson has worked much ample, the National Wildlife Federation, Generals and Their Weapons of his life at ExxonMobil, becom- think that under Trump, federal lands ing its CEO, worrying environmen- are in danger of being opened up to Up until now, President Trump has talists. In complete contrast with drilling for gas and oil. This includes made sure to place people highly Trump, however, he also recommend- national monuments and parks, wildlife hostile to the environment in execu- ed that the United States not leave preserves, and other wilderness areas. tive posts. Myron Ebell, who led the the Climate Change Convention. Trump, in his attempt to put an epa transition team, stated that the Undoubtedly, these are dark times end to what he calls “the war against environmentalist movement is the for the environment in the United coal,” has even promised his voters world’s biggest threat to prosper- States, wrapped up in a discourse to dismantle environmental laws af- ity and freedom. New epa head Scott that goes beyond the merely pragmat- fecting the coal industry. To revital- Pruitt, for his part, has stated pub- ic, and taking on the belligerent tones ize the latter, which even in China is licly that the agency has exceeded of defending the indefensible: clean already dying, in his first days in of- its authority and that regulations are energy being sacrificed to fossil fuels fice Trump lifted the Obama admin- harmful to the economy. In his for- in the quest for supposed growth and istration moratorium on renting land mer capacity as Oklahoma attorney job creation. • to coal companies at low prices. general, Pruit took the epa to court At the same time that he fosters the 14 times and is accused of having re- Edit Antal is a researcher at the unam obsolete coal industry, gas, and oil, ceived campaign donations from the Center for Research on North America.

DONALD TRUMP ABRIL DE 2017 ENCUENTROS2050 39