Military Assault JANUARY 2013 •

ssault rifles1 are light, self-loading rifles Finnish Valmet. The production of other types that are chambered for intermediate- of assault , such as the 16M and its deriva- NUMBER 25 Acalibre cartridges, such as 5.56 × 45 mm tives, is better documented, although far from or 7.62 × 39 mm. Designed to engage targets precise for many of the same reasons, including at ranges rarely exceeding 400 metres (around licensed/copied production.

1,300 feet), they are primarily selective-fire The most common calibres in , enabling the user to switch between service are the NATO-standard 5.56 × 45 mm single-shot, fully automatic, and (in some and the Warsaw Pact 5.45 × 39 mm and 7.62 × models) burst-fire modes of operation. 39 mm cartridges, with a growing prevalence The assault rifle concept arose from experi- of the latter in many developing countries.2 In ences in the two World Wars, in which largely recent decades a number of manufacturers have conscript armies fought at effective ‘combat experimented with innovative ammunition engagement ranges’ in the order of 50–300 types, including ‘caseless’ ammunition (in WEAPONS & MARKETS metres. Traditional military rifles (see Research which the bullet is embedded in a block of Note No. 7, Anti-materiel Rifles) were designed propellant rather than fitted into a for longer-range engagements, generally fired case), and a variety of new calibres, such as a machine-gun-calibre cartridge (e.g. .303), and the Chinese 5.8 × 42 mm. These calibres have proved heavy and cumbersome to transport been designed to meet disparate requirements, and operate. The assault rifle, by contrast, including reduced weight, extended range, fired a smaller cartridge and was designed as higher velocity, and greater penetration (pri- a selective-fire , fulfilling two roles: marily to defeat body armour). However, at providing automatic fire in the assault and least three factors inhibit many states from single-shot fire when the user required accu- adopting new calibres (and new weapons to racy rather than volume of fire. accommodate them): Widespread production began in the 1. the durability of weapons and the reluc- 1950s. Assault rifles are now the primary tance of states to replace them (procurement weapon of most infantry forces and many of periods longer than 30 years are common the world’s police forces. For this reason they among developed countries);3 are certainly the most numerous of military 2. the preponderance of very few primary Notes weapons systems. Aggregate figures for total calibres, but a multitude of manufacturers world assault rifle production should, however, and suppliers (including surplus), which be treated with extreme caution. The produc- offers economies of scale to states that retain tion span of many weapon types (sometimes existing calibres; and in the range of 40–50 years), a plethora of pro- 3. the need for ammunition interoperability ducers of the same or similar products, and the (e.g. among NATO countries), which dis- loss of old manufacturing records have resulted courages the widespread introduction of in partial or opaque production records. new calibres. In the case of AK-47-type assault rifles, for example, while some analysts have suggested For these reasons, and despite recurrent that total production exceeds 100 million weap- technological advances, even the wealthiest ons, others have reviewed numerous sources— states continue to deploy assault rifle designs including manufacturer records—and come to that have changed little in the past 40 or 50 the (justifiable) conclusion that it is not possible years. The US M16 assault rifle is one example. to place a reliable figure on the number of First deployed as the M16A1 in the early 1960s, weapons produced (see Table 1 for sources). the weapon was upgraded in the 1980s to become More than 13 states (and a far greater number the M16A2. Since the 2000s the United States of manufacturers) have produced near-identical has systematically replaced the M16A2 with variants of the AK-47—excluding heavily mod- the M16A4 and a shorter-barrelled version, the ified derivatives, such as the Israeli Galil and M4.4 M16 variants are expected to remain in use with US armed forces well into the 21st century, Heckler and Koch G36 assault rifle suggesting a service life of 50–60 years and prob- ably longer. Such design retention is typical of many common assault rifle types. For exam- ple, today’s Kalashnikov-pattern assault rifles evolved from the AK-47, which first entered serv- ice in 1947. Weapons such as the AKM, AK-74, and AK-100 series are the result of progressive

One of the latest generations of assault rifle, featuring extensive use of polymer technical refinement since1947 , including re- plastics, but retaining the conventional layout of most assault rifles. Research Research chambering to new calibres in some models.

Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 25 • January 2013 1 Table 1 AK-47 and M16 assault rifle production estimates

Model Production dates Production estimates (units) About the AK-47 (and very close derivatives) 1950s onwards 35–100 million* Small Arms Survey M16 (and derivatives, including the M4 and C7/8) 1960s onwards 8–12 million The Small Arms Survey serves as the * Currently unverifiable and plausibly a significant overestimate. principal international source of public Sources: 1. AK-47: 35–50 million (Hart Ezell, 1995, p. 9; UN, 1997); 80–100 million (Kahaner, 2007, p. 2); 60–80 million (Kalashnikov, 2006, p. xv); information on all aspects of small arms 70–100 million (Karp, 2006, p. 55); 2. M16: 12 million (Karp, 2006, p. 55); fewer than 10 million (Chivers, 2010, p. 12); 8 million (Colt Defence LLC, and armed violence, and as a resource 2011; excludes non-Colt weapons) centre for governments, policy-makers, researchers, and activists. In addition to The Kalashnikov-pattern assault rifle Notes Research Notes, the Survey distributes remains in high demand by many 1. Assault rifles are primarily weapons its findings through Occasional Papers, developing nations and its variants designed for military use. In US law the Special Reports, Working Papers, Issue (notably the Chinese Type 56 series) term ‘assault weapons’ is used to describe Briefs, a Book Series, and its annual flag- that include some features of are increasingly the most common ship publication, the Small Arms Survey. assault rifle types in many parts of assault rifles. 2. This is arguably due to two factors: the The project has an international staff the world. large-scale export of Warsaw Pact-calibre with expertise in security studies, political weapons in the period following the end Despite technological developments science, international public policy, law, and the so-called revolution in mili- of the cold war (particularly East European and former Soviet states in the 1990s) and economics, development studies, conflict 1990 tary affairs (from the s onwards), the growing influence of China as a source resolution, sociology, and criminology, basic infantry roles have changed little. of Warsaw Pact-calibre weapons and ammu- and works closely with a worldwide net- Neither doctrines nor tactics have nition. Each of these factors offered strong work of researchers and partners. prompted a substantial revision of the economic incentives for developing states to adopt Warsaw Pact calibres in lieu of The Small Arms Survey is a project assault rifle’s military applications, with NATO-standard weapons and ammunition. of the Graduate Institute of International the result that the weapon has not been 3. See, for example, procurement trends and Development Studies, Geneva. For replaced and has remained largely analysed by Bevan (2006, pp. 9–11). more information, please visit: unchanged since its development in 4. The M4 is often referred to as a , which is a term that (in contemporary use) the 1940s–50s. With the exception of refers to a short-barrelled assault rifle rather www.smallarmssurvey.org modifications to - configu- than another, distinct category of weapon. ration, such as the ‘’ design 5. See, for example, the Austrian AUG, the Chinese Type 95/97 (QBZ-95/97), the Brit- Publication date: January 2013 (whereby the magazine and action ish L85 (SA-80), and the French F1 (Famas). 5 are placed behind the trigger group), 6. See forthcoming Research Note 26 on most contemporary assault rifles accessories for small arms and light weap- Credits closely resemble their predecessors. ons (Schroeder, forthcoming). Author: James Bevan Many national militaries, rather than replacing assault rifles with newer Copy-editing: Alex Potter models, have adapted these weapons References ([email protected]) with minor modifications and the wide- Bevan, James. 2006. ‘Military Demand and Illustration: Daly Design spread use of accessories—often com- Supply: Products and Producers.’ In Small (www.dalydesign.co.uk) 6 Arms Survey. Small Arms Survey 2006: mercially manufactured. Accessories Unfinished Business. Oxford: Oxford Uni- Design and layout: Richard Jones include the addition of a variety of versity Press, pp. 6–35. ([email protected]) optical sight accessories, range find- Chivers, Christopher John. 2010. The Gun. New ers, lights for house clearance during York: Simon and Schuster. Small Arms Survey Research Assistant Colt Defence LLC. 2011. ‘Colt History.’ Accessed Christelle Rigual contributed material for urban warfare, and other items designed March 2012. this Research Note. custom pistol grips, hand guards, and Hart Ezell, Virginia. 1995. Report on International bipods. While weapons with many Small Arms Production and Proliferation. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Research on Contact details such additions may cease to resemble Small Arms in International Security. March. their predecessors, stripped of their Kalashnikov, Mikhail, with Elena Joly. 2006. Small Arms Survey accessories they are the same basic The Gun that Changed the World. Cambridge: 47 Avenue Blanc weapons underneath. Polity Press. 1202 Geneva, Switzerland Karp, Aaron. 2006. ‘Trickle and Torrent: State For the most part, however, the Stockpiles.’ In Small Arms Survey. Small t +41 22 908 5777 world’s military forces appear to favour Arms Survey 2006: Unfinished Business. f +41 22 732 2738 the least-complicated and most cost- Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 36–63. Schroeder, Matt. Forthcoming. Accessories for effective weapons designs. Under poor Small Arms and Light Weapons. Research service conditions, harsh environments, Note No. 26. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. and often in the hands of ill-trained UN (United Nations). 1997. Report of the Secretary- personnel, the simplest designs prove General on Small Arms Prepared with the Assistance of the Panel of Governmental Experts the most robust and easy to use. It is for on Small Arms. A/52/298 of 27 August. these reasons that 1940s-era weapons, such as the AK-47 and its derivatives, For more information on assault rifles, please visit: .

2 Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 25 • January 2013