BULLETIN of the NETHERLANDS SOCIETY for TROPICAL MEDICINE and INTERNATIONAL HEALTH
N O 0 2 / a u g u s t 2 0 2 0 - v o l u m e 5 8
COVID-19 EDITORIAL
COVID-19: CONTENT CONTRADICTIONS, EDITORIAL - 2 CONFUSION, AND
REVIEW COMPLEXITY Management of Covid-19 - 4 It is mid-July 2020. Some A novel virus, a recurring countries are experiencing threat: looking at past the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic threats to understand pandemic, while others have how SARS-CoV-2 has evaded loosened their lockdown global control efforts - 7 With pleasure we measures, anticipating a continued slowdown of In the shadow of the announce our renewed the epidemic. Meanwhile coronavirus: a global rise media pages: scientists around the of infectious diseases due world are working on the to Covid-19 containment linkedin.com/company/mtbulletin development of an effective measures - 13 vaccine. facebook.com/BulletinoftheNVTG PERSONAL REFLECTIONS FROM CONTRADICTIONS THE FIELD - 9 In Japan, the management of a sea Covid-19 in context - 9 aquarium invites visitors to video chat How Ebola prepared us to fight with their 300 sea eels and wave at them Covid-19 in the DRC - 9 Corona free country? - 10 as they showed signs of stress because The heritage of a highly lethal virus of the absence of the public in the outbreak - 11 past months. Hundreds of thousands Suddenly working in the intensive care of mainly female garment workers unit - 12 YOUare invited to visit these in Bangladesh ignore the nationwide INTERVIEW lockdown in order to earn back some of Moria, 20,000 refugees waiting pages for additional the income loss they experienced over for a disaster to happen - 15 articles, blogs, and other the past months. More than 49 million posts on topical issues in women are lacking contraceptives, a OPINION global health and tropical situation which according to the WHO Covid-19 and the Trojan horse is likely to result in a baby boom. Donald that eroded the World Health medicine. Also, on these Trump asks scientists to research the Organization - 17 pages you can access effect of injecting disinfects into a per- previous editions of MTb son in order to fight the virus. While the Pooling of knowledge, and International Health Italian government still provided food know-how and intellectual rations for the needy, shrewd business- property to counteract vaccine Alerts. men developed protective plastic shields nationalism - 22 for the sunbeds – in anticipation of the tourists that would come as soon as RESEARCH lockdown restrictions in Italy were to Outbreak of Covid-19 like be released. State prisons in California illness in a remote village in are releasing 3,500 inmates to protect Papua, Indonesia - 19 them from potential exposure to the virus as a result of the conditions in BOOK REVIEW the prisons. Research from Stanford Epidemics and pandemics - 21 University shows that, in a country were some 1.6 million people die each year A constant state of emergency: of respiratory diseases, the improved Paul de Kruif, microbe hunter air quality has saved the lives of more and health activist - 23 than 1,400 children under age 5, and 51,700 adults above 70 years of age. Meanwhile the virus has spread to 188 countries, with more than 13,876,441
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confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7.3 million of the USA the situation is spinning in the Americas), including 593,087 out of control, and African countries deaths reported to the WHO.[1,2] are experiencing an early state of the epidemic. Europe seems to be some- CONFUSION where in between.[6] It feels like we are at In the absence of a vaccine we have wit- a crossroads, and much will depend on nessed a wave of containment measures, the choices that we the public, our gov- roughly ranging from total lockdown ernments, and world leaders are mak- to the so-called intelligent lockdown ing - choices that will have an impact (relying on the idea of group or herd on societies at large, impacting on all immunity and a sense of responsibility aspects of life. The Covid-19 crisis is on the part of the population) intro- testing our capacity to deal with the soci- duced in the Netherlands. The Dutch etal consequences of pandemics and to were accused of lacking solidarity with balance economic interests without los- neighbouring countries’ approaches - an ing sight of the (health) risks involved. interesting observation, given the overall lack of solidarity and coordination at With this edition of MTb, we intend to European (and global) levels.[3] With challenge these three Cs in a construc- this approach, the Dutch government tive manner with articles shedding wanted to ‘cushion the social, economic light on the clinical management of and psychological costs of social isola- the disease, Covid-19 against a his- tion and make the eventual return to torical perspective of epidemics, field normality more manageable’.[4] And experiences in LMICs, the effect of while social distancing in high-income the pandemic on the refugee crisis countries may have saved lives, the in Greece, the role of the WHO, and question is at what cost? Low-income efforts to counteract vaccine national- countries are anticipating counterpro- isms. We look forward to your reflec- ductive effects, including a potential tions and invite you to react using rise in other (infectious) diseases and one of our (social) media channels. rising morbidity and mortality figures caused by other diseases, as well as a Esther Jurgens, Ed Zijlstra devastating effect on fragile economies and informal sector workers. Adding to the confusion are the many variations in tracking and reporting approaches and misleading or missing data. Reflecting REFERENCES on the past months challenges us to 1. World Health Organization [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization. WHO coronavirus decide on a “new” normal. Can we disease (COVID-19): dashboard; [updated 2020 push a “reset” button, thereby building Jul 21]. Available from: https://covid19.who.int 2. Contradictions collated in the magazine 360 (2020 on some of the (positive) lessons – for Jul 9-Aug 20;183), based on experiences from correspondents of the Swiss magazine Reportagen. example working from home and reduc- 3. Deen B, Kruijver, K. Coronavirus: EU’s existential ing our ecological footprint by (r)evolu- crisis: why the lack of solidarity threatens not only the Union’s health and economy, but also [5] tionizing international conferences. it’s security [Internet]. The Hague: Clingendael Institute; 2020 Apr. 5 p. Available from: https:// www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/ COMPLEXITY Alert_Corona_Existential_Crisis_April_2020.pdf 4. Holligan A. Coronavirus: why Dutch lockdown Currently it still feels like a global Catch- may be a high-risk strategy. BBC News [Internet]. 2020 Apr 5. Available from: https://www. 22. Without a concrete prospect of a vac- bbc.com/news/world-europe-52135814 cine or treatment, the virus will hold the 5. Bousema T, Yakar D, et al. Opinie: wetenschappers, het is niet van deze tijd de wereld over te vliegen voor ieder world in its grip for months and possibly congres. De Volkskrant [Internet]. 2020 Jul 1. Available from: https://www.volkskrant.nl/columns-opinie/ years to come. While some countries opinie-wetenschappers-het-is-niet-van-deze-tijd-de- seem to have succeeded in containing wereld-over-te-vliegen-voor-ieder-congres~b4ed69ab/? referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.radboudumc.nl%2F Covid-19 (China, Taiwan, Vietnam), 6. The new normal: Covid-19 is here to stay: the world is working out how to live with it. The Economist others are experiencing a peak in infec- [Internet]. 2020 Jul 4. Available from: https://www. tions (countries in Latin America and economist.com/international/2020/07/04/covid-19-is- here-to-stay-the-world-is-working-out-how-to-live-with-it South Asia). Meanwhile, in some part
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Management of Covid-19
The Covid-19 (corona virus di sease, SARS-CoV-1. The virus enters the body RISK FACTORS AND DIAGNOSIS detected in 2019) pandemic is through person-to-person airborne Risk factors for a severe course of the keeping a firm grip on the world transmission. There is no proven animal disease are co-morbidities such as and affects the health of those reservoir; in the Netherlands, the infec- chronic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, ill with Covid-19 as well as those tion was detected in mink farms but was underlying respiratory conditions such with other illnesses; it overbur- thought to originate from humans. The as COPD and asthma, malignancy and dens health services and causes virus is spread in crowded conditions obesity. In addition, the risk for severe delays in diagnosis and treatment and mass gatherings: the celebration of disease increases with advanced age of other conditions. While there is carnival (province of North Brabant, the >60 years. In contrast, young children universal fear of infection, this is Netherlands), winter ski holidays (North are usually asymptomatic. The diag- especially evident among service Italy, Austria) and (international) foot- nosis is made by demonstrating the providers and people accessing ball matches like the Champions League virus via PCR in a nasal and/or throat health facilities. Population-based match between Atalanta Bergamo vs swab. Serological tests for IgM and IgG screening programmes to detect Valencia on February 19 with 40,000 antibodies are currently continually breast, cervix and colon cancer have Italian and Spanish supporters (with being improved in terms of sensitivity been suspended; the waiting lists subsequent outbreaks in Italy and and specificity; these tests only indi- for elective surgical procedures are Spain) are thought to have contribu cate past exposure and are not suitable becoming longer. In addition to the ted to major outbreaks in Europe. yet for confirmation of the diagnosis impact on health, severe damage to in someone who is symptomatic. the economy is caused by lockdown The clinical picture is dominated by Currently, in populations in Europe measures affecting small and big respiratory symptoms, with fever, not more than 5% of people tested have businesses. Especially in low- and shortness of breath, and cough. Fatigue antibodies showing previous infec- middle-income countries, lock- is common and other non-respiratory tion (asymptomatic or symptomatic); down and social distancing affect symptoms include confusion and diar- it is not clear whether these antibodies the informal sector and thereby rhoea. Most infections are only mildly are fully protective and for how long. people’s livelihoods, resulting in symptomatic and self-cure within food shortages and malnutri- days or weeks. Other patients require INTERVENTIONS tion. Control efforts for various hospitalization and develop pneumonia Currently there is no treatment with tropical diseases and vaccination with so-called ground glass opacities proven efficacy. A multitude of observa- programmes have been suspended. on a CT scan; oxygen administra- tional and randomised controlled trials The overall morbidity and mortality tion is needed and other supportive (RCTs) are ongoing, that initially mainly caused by the pandemic is therefore care, including admission to intensive focused on drugs that had been studied not restricted to Covid-19. There is care units with intubation and artifi- for SARS, MERS (Middle East respira- no specific treatment for Covid-19 cial ventilation, often because of the tory syndrome) or Ebola disease, but infection, and the pandemic has adult respiratory disease syndrome that unfortunately were not developed sparked a flurry of research projects (ARDS). Severe pneumonia and death further when these outbreaks lost their that focus on inhibiting the replica- occur in 4-5% of admitted patients in epidemiological importance. Some tion of the virus, on its effects on a setting with optimal care (Lancet, drugs are still experimental and have the human respiratory system and Covid-19 clinical research coalition, 25 not been used or studied in humans, other organs, and on the immune April 2020). While in hospital, sud- and therefore existing drugs (for what- response triggered by Covid-19. den deterioration may occur caused ever indication) that can be re-purposed by thromboembolism in the major for Covid-19, are clearly preferred. While In this paper, current insight into lung vessels and the brain, with poor most studies focus on mitigation of the management of Covid-19 infec- outcome. Viral sepsis has been sug- Covid-19 disease, other efforts focus tion as well as the main features of gested among explanations causing on prophylaxis. The early drugs that ongoing drug studies are discussed. damage to blood vessels; other organs are considered for potential benefit in Lastly, issues in publication inclu may be affected as the virus spreads to Covid-19 are included in the Solidarity ding peer review are discussed. other parts of the body. An overreaction trial of the World Health Organization of the immune system may occur with (WHO) in patients hospitalized for CLINICAL SYNDROME cytokine release storm (CSR) which confirmed Covid-19. It has four arms: Covid-19 infection is caused by the may also contribute to organ damage. • HIV protease inhibitors: SARS-CoV-2 virus; the name refers to All this may contribute to development lopinavir/ritonavir the severe acute respiratory syndrome of acute renal failure, viral myocardi- • antimalarials: hydroxychlo- caused by a similar corona virus, tis, multi-organ failure and death. roquine and chloroquine
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PHOTO: MOHSEN NABIL / SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
• antiviral (RNA polymerase inhibitor): remdesivir • immunomodulatory agent: lopi- navir/ritonavir with interferon 1a
Other early major studies include the RECOVERY trial (randomised evalua- tion of Covid-19 therapy) in the United Kingdom in hospitalised patients, primarily studying the effect of hydroxy- chloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, azithro- mycin, dexamethasone vs no additional treatment. Patients are further random- ized to receive tocilizumab (an interleu- kin-6 blocker) and convalescent plasma.
ANTIMALARIAL DRUGS Recently published preliminary data on antimalarials are not encourag- ing. Hydroxy-chloroquine and chloro- quine were among the first candidate drugs suggested. The effect of these antimalarials is thought to be a pH- mediated at the level of virus entry in the cell as well as disruption of viral replication.[1] A combination therapy with azithromycin was suggested to have a beneficial effect.[2] This publica- tion was recently criticised and could not stand up to scrutiny. There is increasing evidence that these drugs are of no clini- cal benefit and severe cardiotoxicity has been reported, which seems aggravated by co-administration of azithromy- Lopinavir/ritonavir, an antiretroviral there is concern of prolonged viral cin.[3] Prophylactic use of hydroxy drug used in HIV/AIDS has so far shedding and secondary infections.[9,10] chloroquine after high-risk or moderate failed to show a clinical benefit in early The timing of such intervention in the risk post exposure to Covid-19 did not reports. In hospitalized adults with course of the disease may be crucial. prevent illness in a recent study.[4] severe Covid-19 infection, no clini- cal benefit was found.[6] Combination The excessive immune response in ANTIVIRAL DRUGS treatment with interferon and ribavirin the cytokine release is characterized Remdesivir is an antiviral drug (RNA showed better alleviation of clinical by high levels of cytokines such as polymerase inhibitor) that inhibits symptoms as well as shortening of dura- interleukin (IL)-6. Tocilizumab is an SARS-CoV-2 (that causes Covid-19), tion to negative nasal swab and hospital IL-6 blocker that is used for example as well as SARS-CoV-1 (that causes stay in mild to moderate Covid-19.[7] in rheumatoid arthritis; a small study SARS) and MERS-CoV (that causes RCTs on other antiviral drugs against in 22 patients recently published MERS) in animal models. In a recently SARS-CoV-2, including favipiravir are showed remarkable clinical improve- published RCT, there was no clinical ongoing as there are mixed reports ment in Covid-19, and RCTs are eagerly benefit although early treatment might about their in vitro and in vivo efficacy.[8] being awaited.[11] Similarly, the effect shorten time to clinical improvement.[5] of inhibition of IL-1 is being studied. There is no evidence yet that remdesivir IMMUNE MODULATION is beneficial in severe Covid-19 infec- This is also a subject of study; the Other immune therapies include tion in a patient on the intensive care. evidence on the use of corticosteroids the use of immunoglobulins and The drug was recently registered by the is controversial. While the immuno- re-convalescent plasma of patients European Medicines Agency (EMA). suppressive effect may be beneficial, who have recovered from Covid-19.
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ALTERNATIVE DRUGS PUBLICATION STRESS REFERENCES
Ivermectin and nitazoxanide have Every week a plethora of reports are 1. Sturrock BR, Chevassut TJ. Chloroquine and COVID- 19: a potential game changer? Clin Med (Lond). shown anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity published in scientific journals includ- 2020 Apr 17;20(3):278-81. Online ahead of print in vitro and are licensed for other ing the authoritative The Lancet and 2. Gautret P, Lagier JC, Parola P, et al. Clinical and microbiological effect of a combination of conditions, and thus they can be the New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in 80 COVID-19 patients with at least a six-day follow up: studied directly in Covid-19. (NEJM). While publication, often after A pilot observational study. Travel Med Infectious expedited peer-review, of any useful Dis. 2020 Mar-Apr;34:101663. Epub 2020 Apr 11 3. Juurlink DN. Safety considerations with chloroquine, Latest reports: in a webinar on 30 June result in Covid-19 is clearly impor- hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in the management of SARS-CoV-2 infection. CMAJ. 2020, the RECOVERY trial showed tant, mistakes have been made. Both 2020 Apr 27;192(17):E450-E3. Epub 2020 Apr 8 unpublished data indicating that in The Lancet and NEJM have retracted 4. Boulware DR, Pullen MF, Bangdiwala AS, et al. A randomized trial of hydroxychloroquine as admitted patients who are on oxygen or papers that were criticized for meth- postexposure prophylaxis for Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 3;NEJMoa2016638. Online ahead of print ventilation, mortality was reduced by 1/5 odological flaws or poor quality of 5. Wang Y, Zhang D, Du G, et al. Remdesivir in adults and 1/3, respectively, after administra- data after publication.[12-16] The above with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Lancet. 2020 tion of low dose (6 mg) dexamethasone mentioned work on hydroxychloro- May 16;395(10236):1569-78. Epub 2020 Apr 29 6. Cao B, Zhang D, Wang C. A trial of lopinavir- for 10 days. In similar patients, hydroxy- quine by the French virologist Didier ritonavir in Covid-19: reply. N Engl J Med. 2020 chloroquine or lopinavir/ritonavir did Raoult, who is held in high esteem in May 21;382(21):e68. Epub 2020 May 5 7. Hung IF, Lung KC, Tso EY, et al. Triple combination not show an effect on mortality. It France, particularly in his hometown of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir-ritonavir, and ribavirin in the treatment of patients admitted should be noted that the latter two drugs Marseille, was criticised as many of to hospital with COVID-19: an open-label, were studied for their antiviral effect, his publications appeared in journals randomised, phase 2 trial. Lancet. 2020 May 30;395(10238):1695-704. Epub 2020 May 10 whereas dexamethasone in general in which he or his co-workers were 8. Coomes EA, Haghbayan H. Favipiravir, an antiviral for COVID-19? J Antimicrob Chemother. influences inflammatory damage to among the members of the editorial 2020 Jul 1;75(7):2013-4. Epub 2020 May 18 the lungs and is already used in severe board. (The Economist, June 13th, 2020; 9. So C, Ro S, Murakami M, et al. High-dose, short-term corticosteroids for ARDS caused by th ARDS caused by other conditions. NRC Handelsblad, June 13 , 2020). COVID-19: a case series. Respirol Case Rep. 2020 Jun 4;8(6):e00596. Epub 2020 Jun 10 10. Fadel R, Morrison AR, Vahia A, et al. Early CONTROVERSY CONCLUSION short course corticosteroids in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Clin Infect Dis. 2020 The SARS-CoV-2 virus uses receptors Covid-19 causes severe and fatal disease, May 19;ciaa601. Online ahead of print 11. Xu X, Han M, Li T, et al. Effective treatment of severe to bind to a respiratory cell before being be it in a minority of cases. Currently COVID-19 patients with tocilizumab. Proc Natl Acad Sci able to enter the cell and replicate. The there is no drug treatment that has been U S A. 2020 May 19;117(20):10970-5. Epub 2020 Apr 29 12. Mehra MR, Desai SS, Kuy S, et al. Cardiovascular angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) proved effective and safe, in prophylaxis disease, drug therapy, and mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 18;382(25):e102. Epub 2020 May 1 2 receptor is among these. Patients with or in mitigation of clinical disease. 13. Mehra MR, Desai SS, Kuy S, et al. Retraction: high blood pressure have higher levels Management is therefore largely sup- cardiovascular disease, drug therapy, and mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 25;382(26):2582. of these receptors and treatment for portive with intervention by administra- DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621. Epub 2020 Jun 4 14. Rubin EJ. Expression of concern: Mehra MR et al. hypertension with an ACE inhibitor or tion of potentially effective drugs based Cardiovascular disease, drug therapy, and mortality angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) such on clinical experience and evolving in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 18;382(25):2464. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621. Epub 2020 Jun 2 as losartan may increase expression of evidence in the scientific literature. 15. Solomon MD, McNulty EJ, Rana JS, et al. The Covid-19 pandemic and the incidence of the receptor. It has therefore been specu- acute myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med. lated that these patients are at increased Note of the author: every week new 2020 May 19. Online ahead of print 16. Mehra MR, Desai SS, Ruschitzka F, et al. RETRACTED: risk of severe Covid-19. However, there studies are published that change hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a is also the possibility that losartan treat- insight on the management of Covid- multinational registry analysis. Lancet. 2020 May ment may be beneficial by blocking the 19; this paper summarized informa- 22;S0140-6736(20)31180-6. Online ahead of print binding of the virus. Currently, there tion available up to 30 June 2020. is no conclusive evidence and patients on losartan treatment are advised not to discontinue their treatment. Ed Zijlstra Internist, Specialist in Infectious Disease and Tropical Medicine, Rotterdam Centre for Tropical Medicine, the Netherlands [email protected]
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A novel virus, a recurring threat: looking at past pandemic threats to understand how SARS-CoV-2 has evaded global control efforts
Shortly after the New Year, the TRANSMISSIBILITY of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be only reporting of emerging clusters It was late in the year when health care slightly higher than that of SARS (3-5.3 of pneumonia from an unknown practitioners in Southern China first and 2-5, respectively), SARS-CoV-2, pathogen in Wuhan, China, began encountered cases of a mysterious possesses numerous qualities that to draw the attention of infectious viral illness that manifested as severe make it not only more transmissible, disease experts and public health pneumonia leading to acute respira- but more able to evade the surveillance officials globally. In spite of Chinese tory distress. With variant strains of measures that had been able to stop control efforts, including what up avian flu starting to become a seasonal SARS.[2] The period of infectiousness until that point was the largest norm, Chinese public health officials in SARS-CoV-2, for example, not only population lockdown in human did not at first sound any global alarm begins before the onset of symptoms, history, it did not take long for the bells. After spreading to Beijing and but in many cases peaks days before localized viral infection to disperse then Hong Kong, it boarded planes most people even know they are sick. itself ubiquitously throughout bound for other continents and began [3] This makes mitigating the spread of much of the world. As of the end of to make its way across land. Almost the virus much more challenging than June, SARS-CoV-2, the once novel simultaneously, three separate labs in SARS, which during its 2003 outbreak coronavirus, has claimed nearly half Hong Kong, Germany, and the United was transmitted primarily when patients a million lives and affected roughly States of America, finally identified the were severely ill and clearly symptom- 213 countries and territories. pathogen causing this fatal pneumo- atic. Furthermore, there were only a SARS-CoV-2 is categorized as an nia as a novel coronavirus. The Global few known documented asymptomatic emerging infectious disease, defined Outbreak Alert and Response Network SARS cases, which differs vastly from by the World Health Organiza- was activated, and the WHO provided a SARS-CoV-2, where asymptomatic cases tion (WHO) as any disease that has rapid and measured response helping to are suspected to climb into the millions ‘appeared in a population for the advise every affected nation. By July, the globally. Epidemiologist are still seeking first time, or that may have existed virus was controlled. But this was 2003, to understand the capacity for asymp- previously but is rapidly increasing and the novel coronavirus was SARS. tomatic cases to spread the virus, but in incidence or geographic range.’[1] like all unknown elements, it presents Emerging infectious diseases are The international community learned further challenges in creating control primarily zoonotic, meaning they numerous lessons from SARS, namely strategies and finding methods to estab- are transmitted to humans from about the importance of having strong lish normalcy in a world with Covid-19. animal hosts, and have been the disease surveillance and centralized Additionally, other elements such as culprits of most pandemic threats health systems. The outbreak led to longer relative incubation periods for in the past decades, like SARS-CoV many countries boosting their infec- SARS-CoV-2 (most likely 3-10 days, but (SARS), Ebola, Swine influenza and tious disease control capacities, which potentially as long as 14) may have facili- Zika. With emerging infectious included the creation of the Center tated its spread during the initial out- diseases now making an appearance for Infectious Disease Control here break, allowing people to carry the virus on the global stage every few years, in the Netherlands, the resources far from disease epicenters under the it is vital to look at the specific of which have been integral to help- assumption that they had not contracted characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and ing the control efforts for combat- the virus since they were not yet sick.[2] the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) ting the current outbreak nationally. that have allowed the virus to Global detection systems, however, PATHOGENICITY evade global control efforts and had evidently not prepared enough Ten years after the last cases of SARS pose such a grave threat to society. for handling the very different trans- were treated, a much more virulent Comparing SARS-CoV-2 to disease mission dynamics of the SARS coro- threat began lurking in the jungle of agents that have caused former navirus successor, SARS-CoV-2. Southern Guinea. By the summer of pandemics and global health crises 2014, the Ebola virus disease (EVD), helps to contextualize the threat of The basic reproductive number, or R0, never before seen in Western Africa the current viral outbreak, and also refers to the average number of cases or able to reach an urban area, had illuminates how response efforts generated by an infectious person, and infiltrated the capital cities of Guinea, have been shaped in the wake of is considered an important indicator Sierra Leone and Liberia. For two chaos international disease threats. of transmissibility. Although the R0 driven years, the worst Ebola outbreak in
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history rocked Western Africa, sending that Zika virus had hit its herd immu- bodies issued public health warnings ripples of fear that the epidemic would nity threshold (HIT).[8] Herd immunity centered around three components: try spread globally.[4] EVD is infamous for occurs when a certain percentage of to stay inside, socially distance yourself its devastating hemorrhagic symptoms the population becomes immune to from others whenever possible, and if and high pathogenicity, with case fatal- a disease, either through contracting you must leave your house wear a mask. ity rates (CFRs) from previous outbreaks the illness or from getting vaccinated. If it is disheartening to see how little being as high as 90%. The CFR for the The herd immunity required to reduce has changed in our individual capac- 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak transmission to below epidemic levels ity to control the spread of a pandemic was 40%, making early estimates of varies for every disease, but is in theory virus, perhaps there is solace in the SARS-CoV-2 appear relatively low at easier to achieve in diseases like Zika understanding that remarkable advances 2.3%.[2] With SARS-CoV-2, however, that are limited to specific geographic have been made in surveillance, the virus’s capacity to transmit so boundaries or demographic factors, diagnostics, and vaccine production, efficiently, ability to evade control, and in this case to areas in which the Zika largely informed by previous epidem- prevalence worldwide in addition to its transmitting mosquito was endemic. ics of emerging infectious diseases. pathogenicity is what makes it so lethal. Learning from the disease specific To understand the true pathogenic- SARS-CoV-2, conversely, is ubiquitous elements that made SARS-CoV-2 so ity of SARS-CoV-2, one can compare and not limited by any geographic area, uncontainable will help shape cur- its CFR to another virus that trans- gender, race, or for the most part, age, rent control efforts and inform future mits globally, the seasonal influenza. although it has shown significantly outbreaks. Every large-scale epidemic Seasonal influenza, with a CFR of under higher associations of severe disease should come with numerous lessons not 0.1%, is over twenty times less likely and mortality with older age groups. only for containment, but for prepared- to cause death than SARS-CoV-2,[5] The herd immunity needed for reduced ness, as the arrival of a new pandemic which would seemingly discredit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to below threat is merely just a matter of time. minority of people who have claimed epidemic levels is estimated to be that Covid-19 is just ‘another flu’. somewhere between 50% and 75% of the population.[9] These estimates take Jake Mathewson, MSc The Ebola outbreak being primarily many characteristics of the pathogen Infectious Disease Consultant, the contained to three countries in West into account. There are very few, if Netherlands Africa does not mean that it was not any, health care systems in the world [email protected] a global threat. Partly due to very late capable of handling the volume of intervention from the WHO – for which Covid-19 patients if a country were to they have been vehemently criticized attempt to reach herd immunity as a REFERENCES
– the virus became unmanageable in control measure. Even if that weren’t the 1. LeDuc, JW, Barry, MA. SARS, the first pandemic of the 21st Century [Internet]. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 West Africa and made appearances case, some would suggest that allow- Nov;10(11),e26. DOI: 10.3201/eid1011.040797_02 in seven other countries.[4] Following ing for 75% of the population to get 2. Chen J. Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV: a quick overview and comparison with the outbreak, the global health com- infected with a disease that has such other emerging viruses. Microbes Infect. 2020 Mar;22(2):69-71. DOI:10.1016/j.micinf.2020.01.004 munity demanded that the WHO a high case fatality rate (CFR) would 3. He X, Lau EHY, Wu P, et al. Temporal dynamics improve responsiveness to emerg- result in an unconscionable amount in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID- 19. Nat Med. 2020 May;25(5):672-675. Epub 2020 [6] ing infectious diseases. In 2019, of deaths. Perhaps most significantly, Apr 15. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5 4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]. perhaps with the understanding that herd immunity is dependent on the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa; [reviewed the next emerging infectious disease population becoming immune. As we 2019 Mar 8]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/ vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html outbreak was merely a matter of time, still have no conclusive evidence that 5. Russell TW, Hellewell J, Jarvis CI, et al. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus the WHO did make major adjustments Covid-19 infection grants lifelong or disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the to help them focus on preparedness even long-term immunity, reaching herd outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12):2000256. and improve emergency response - a immunity and ultimately controlling DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256 6. World Health Organization [Internet]. Q&A: influenza component that would become useful SARS-CoV-2 will most likely be contin- and COVID-19: similarities and differences; 2020 just months after its implementation.[7] gent on the development of a vaccine. Mar 17. Available from: https://www.who.int/ emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/ question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities- and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza? EPIDEMIOLOGY CONCLUSION 7. World Health Organization Regional Office for As Ebola terrorized West Africa, a mos- The characteristics that make SARS- South-East Asia. Five-year regional strategic plan to strengthen public health preparedness and response quito-borne pathogen called Zika virus CoV-2 so transmissible, pathogenic, [Internet]. India: World Health Organization, 2019- 2023; 2019. 35. Available from: https://apps.who.int/ was making its way through much of and widespread have presented extreme iris/bitstream/handle/10665/326856/9789290227236- Brazil and spreading throughout South challenges to disease control special- eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y 8. Netto EM, Moreira Soto A, Pedroso C, et al. High Zika and Central America. While Zika virus- ists, as well as to a considerable percent virus seroprevalence in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil limits the potential for further outbreaks. mBio. 2017 associated birth defects rose at incred- of the global population in some form Nov 14;8(6)e01390-17. DOI: 10.1128/mBio.01390-17 ible rates, the disease strangely began to or another. During the 1918 Spanish 9. Britton T, Ball F, Trapman P. A mathematical model reveals the influence of population recede within a couple of years of its ini- influenza pandemic that killed between heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science. 2020 Jun 23;eabc6810. DOI: 10.1126/ tial emergence. Epidemiologists suspect 20 and 40 million people, governing science.abc6810. Online ahead of print
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few cases of Covid-19 in our region, we Covid-19 in context How Ebola prepared us to compiled small information sheets in fight Covid-19 in the DRC French and Congolese Swahili about The end of my work in a symptoms, prevention and the most hospital in rural Congo- It was in October 2019 that I received important dos and don’ts. When bring- Brazzaville coincided with my first patient infected with Ebola. ing this to chiefs, government officials, the worldwide Covid-19 There is a first time for everything, church leaders and anyone interested, outbreak. It was painful but some things can better be avoided. I found myself directly amidst good to leave, knowing that the Within a few days, I found myself alone conversations, clarifying many things pandemic would also hit in our house: my wife and our three about Covid-19. Outbreaks often Congo-Brazzaville in the children were temporarily elsewhere, as negatively impact continuity of care for very near future. Luckily, violence against Ebola response teams other conditions, such as malaria and my fellow doctors and put the whole village in turmoil. Our obstetric complications in affected areas, I had recently prepared 55-bed mission hospital in the Northeast because of closure of health facilities, for a possible spread of of the DRC became almost empty with lack of staff or fear among patients to Ebola virus disease, and no outpatients anymore. Now, eight contract the disease in the facilities. we had stockpiled a months later, we have no more [3] That is what we saw with the Ebola big container with Ebola in our area and I gladly cases in our hospital, and that is what I personal protective use the experience that I also feared when Covid-19 would hit us. equipment acquired and apply it to But luckily, with all Covid-19 measures just before the Covid-19 outbreak that in place now (borders, schools and global demands is threatening us now. churches closed, and meetings >20 skyrocketed. When people forbidden), hospital visits did not I left, the hospital In reality, every epidemic decline and villagers accepted the com- staff was worried has its own characteristics, bined Ebola/Covid-19 triage at the gate that I would contract and I have learned to see differ- knowing that it would help everyone. Covid-19 in Europe, as ences and similarities. The mortality the number of new cases of Covid-19 in the DRC (2.2%) is much I have yet to see the first Covid-19 case was rising quickly. It felt lower than for Ebola virus disease (EVD) in our hospital. We feel at least a bit like the world upside during the epidemic in the area served prepared with a triage and a small down, and leaving amidst by our hospital (66%).[1] Contact tracing isolation unit, but we know that there all this was difficult as it and isolation of suspect cases, however, are many things we cannot control. gave me a sense of letting seems much easier for EVD than for The Ebola epidemic brought us teams them down. Many of Covid-19, since EVD hardly occurs with- of experts in 4x4s and NGOs with my fellow global health out any symptoms. Vaccines are crucial water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)- doctors had to adapt to in fighting against an outbreak, and projects. Covid-19 brought us a pro- the pandemic. Everybody the EVD vaccine possibly saved my life. vincial response protocol and many was eager to connect Some epidemics gain more attention restrictions, but the government’s main professionally, share than others. For instance, few people focus has been on the highly urbanized resources, ask questions know that the DRC had almost 370,000 area of Kinshasa, the country’s capital and discuss evidence, but measles cases and 6,779 deaths by mea- thousands of kilometres away, where there are personal stories sles in just the year 2019.[1] However, cases augment rapidly. Our provincial as well. Here, we share when I asked the Ebola surveillance health authorities designated hospitals four experiences of global team that was visiting our hospital without even an oxygen concentrator health doctors around the on a daily basis in their 4x4s whether world during the Covid-19 they had seen the measles-epidemic- outbreak in the spring of Landcruisers, they grinned sheepishly. 2020. There are also many similarities. In an outbreak it is crucial to inform all relevant parties and get them on board. If you forget to respect a village chief in Remco van Egmond, MD the Congolese culture you will struggle Global Health and Tropical Medicine, to get anything done. Community previous affiliation: Clinique Médicale resistance had massively hindered a CIB, Pokola, Congo-Brazzaville thorough uptake of EVD cases, contact [email protected] tracing and clinical management in our area.[2] So, when we saw the first
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as Covid-19 treatment centres. Not a persisted for a week. Early March, the single hospital in our area can provide Corona free country? first Covid-19 cases were reported. But advanced respiratory support. We feel that was in Jakarta, not on our island, blessed with two oxygen concentrators ‘My little son has a fever and we will be far away to the east of Java. Strangely powered by our hospital generator, but travelling tomorrow, what shall we do?’ enough, our expat medical team got we are certainly highly underequipped January, 2020, a colleague was return- more and more questions about people compared to high- or middle-income ing from abroad to Papua, Indonesia. who were coughing with fever and settings. Unfortunately, most WHO Something was going on in China, and shortness of breath. Really healthy and NGO experts have left the region. airport authorities in Thailand started people suddenly got sick - sicker than doing prior temperature checks on trav- they ever had been before. An interior Our area continues to be plagued ellers as part of boarding procedures. village reported that all of the villagers by insecurity, and outbreaks add Wasn’t this just a kind of flu, not became ill after they had received to these difficulties. I am learning too severe? ‘Don’t worry, just visitors from Jakarta, and two resilience from my colleagues, some give him some paracetamol people died. In the meantime, of whom have fled war zones or have so that you can pass that messages from all over the been kidnapped or lost relatives and temperature check. They are world came in, from Italy, have learned to rebuild their lives just a little nervous there.’ Iran, and the Netherlands. after the loss of all their possessions. There were not so many Our hope and our prayer is that this A month later this “mild flu” cases in the United States of Covid-19 epidemic will make us apparently was something more America (USA) yet. It was inter- stronger, as the Ebola epidemic did. serious. More and more deaths were esting to see how we as expats reacted reported and suddenly two brand new differently to this illness in Papua. I hospitals were built in China. Indonesia heard messages about the rapid spread- Mark F.P. Godeschalk, MD has quite strong ties with China, includ- ing of Covid-19 in the Netherlands and Global Health and Tropical Medicine ing daily flights to Wuhan, so I expected elsewhere in Europe and was advising (AIGT), Lolwa Referral Hospital, Democratic to hear very soon about cases of this people who had travelled, especially Republic of the Congo. new illness. All countries in Southeast expats, to go into quarantine so they [email protected] Asia reported rapidly rising numbers, would not spread the virus to vulner- [email protected] but not Indonesia. Instead, the govern- able people. American doctors and nurses were more laid-back. In the USA www.gzb.nl/ZorginCongo ment invested millions of dollars to advertise Indonesia as a corona-free it was not a big deal, so why would it country: ‘Come for holidays to Bali!’ be a problem in Indonesia? But it did REFERENCES become a big deal. New cases and deaths
1. World Health Organization. Weekly bulletin on Late February, one of my patients was rose steeply. Jakarta and other parts of outbreaks and other emergencies [Internet]. Brazzaville: WHO Regional Office for Africa; 2020 May 31 (22): 19 evacuated from Papua to Jakarta for Indonesia went into local self-imposed p. Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/ surgery. He was admitted to one of the lockdowns, also in Papua. As a family handle/10665/332246/OEW22-2531052020.pdf 2. Nguyen VK. An epidemic of suspicion: Ebola and best hospitals in Indonesia, which was we had to travel to renew our visa; these violence in the DRC [Internet]. N Engl J Med. 2019 Apr;380:1298–9. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1902682 apparently filled with dengue patients. plans, however, got thwarted as other 3. McQuilkin PA, Udhayashankar K, Niescierenko M, et He got a mattress on the floor. The countries closed their borders. After a al. Health-care access during the Ebola virus epidemic in Liberia. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2017 Sep;97(3):931–6 strange thing was that these patients quick Jakarta-Kuala Lumpur-Jakarta were coughing persistently; some looked trip, we got stuck in Jakarta without a really sick and disappeared secretly work permit and our kids had fever and during the night. He got his surgery and a cough. After six years in Indonesia finally a normal bed on a surgical ward. we were suddenly forced to go back to After a few days, he developed fever and the Netherlands. What we can still do is started having a sore throat and a dry give advice and moral support to friends cough. What to do? I advised him to ask and colleagues in interior Papua, and for a Covid test. His doctor was startled: send them patterns for batik-masks, ‘We don’t have that illness in Indonesia, templates to 3D print face shields, and you didn’t come from abroad. and money to make that possible. EBOLA Furthermore, your blood tests and X-ray IS MORE were totally fine on admission. No need to test. Your wound might be infected, Wijnanda van Burg-Verhage, MD OF AN OPEN so I will start antibiotics.’ The only Global Health and Tropical Medicine, WOUND thing I could do was to strongly advise Stichting Lentera, Wamena, Papua, self-quarantine after he got back in our Indonesia THAN A SCAR little Papuan town. The wounds looked [email protected] perfectly clean and healing, but the fever
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