Understanding the Creeping Crisis

Understanding the Creeping Crisis Edited by Arjen Boin Magnus Ekengren Mark Rhinard Understanding the Creeping Crisis Arjen Boin • Magnus Ekengren Mark Rhinard Editors Understanding the Creeping Crisis Editors Arjen Boin Magnus Ekengren Department of Political Science Department of Security, Strategy and Leiden University Leadership Leiden, The Netherlands Swedish Defence University Stockholm, Sweden Mark Rhinard Swedish Institute of International Affairs Stockholm, Sweden Stockholm University Stockholm, Sweden ISBN 978-3-030-70691-3 ISBN 978-3-030-70692-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70692-0 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication. 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The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland PREFACE This book hinges on the assumption that the world is facing threats to the survival of the planet. The security and prosperity of humankind is at stake because of climate change, forced migration, terrorism, pandemics, cyber breakdowns, the erosion of privacy and growing inequality. The puzzle is simple: why are governments not prioritizing these threats and treating them as the large-scale crises that so many experts argue they are? We arrived at this topic through a long and winding road. We came together as a research team with a common research theme that focused on the crisis management capacity of the European Union. We subse- quently began focusing on the capacity of the European Union and other regional associations to prepare for, and cope with, so-called transbound- ary threats and crises. We discovered that quite a few of these transbound- ary crises had long histories, which made it hard to pinpoint a bifurcation between the ‘incubation phase’ and the actual manifestation of a crisis. Our interest in creeping crisis was born. We were lucky to fnd a great partner in MSB, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, that funds pressing but relatively ‘risky’ research— a rarity these days. Their experience with the migration crisis had prompted an interest in creeping crises. Our research proposal survived the review process and we started a research team, recruiting promising students to help us collect and analyze cases of creeping crises. The students were so talented that we decided to collect and publish a selection of their case studies. We proudly present these young talents and their work to the world of crisis scholars and practitioners. v vi PREFACE This project is but a frst step in a long-lasting research project. We intend this collection of essays as a proof of concept, showing that the idea and perspective of the creeping crisis has analytical purchase. We hope you agree and will join us on this adventure. Leiden, The Netherlands Arjen Boin Stockholm, Sweden Magnus Ekengren Stockholm, Sweden Mark Rhinard December 2020 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book came about thanks to a generous research grant provided by MSB, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för sam- hällsskydd och beredskap), to study the phenomenon of creeping crises. The editors are grateful to the international participants of a practitioner- researcher colloquium on ‘Detecting Creeping Crises: mapping challenges and designing strategies’ held in Stockholm, Sweden on 7–8 November 2019, who helped to push our agenda forward. The editors express special thanks to Swapnil Vashishtha and Alina Engström of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, who, in addition to writing chapters, helped to edit and format the fnal manuscript. vii CONTENTS 1 Understanding and Acting Upon a Creeping Crisis 1 Arjen Boin, Magnus Ekengren, and Mark Rhinard 2 Antimicrobial Resistance as a Creeping Crisis 19 Alina Engström 3 WannaCry as a Creeping Crisis 37 Maria F. Prevezianou 4 Remaining Foreign Fighters: Fear, Misconceptions and Counterproductive Responses 51 Yrsa Landström 5 Big Data as a Creeping Crisis 69 Swapnil Vashishtha and Mark Rhinard 6 Migration, Borders, and Society 87 Yrsa Landström and Magnus Ekengren 7 From Creeping to Full-Blown Crisis: Lessons from the Dutch and Swedish Response to Covid-19 105 Alina Engström, Marte Luesink, and Arjen Boin ix x Contents 8 Political Attention in a Creeping Crisis: The Case of Climate Change and Migration 131 Elin Jakobsson 9 Earthquakes in Groningen: Organized Suppression of a Creeping Crisis 149 Alexander Verdoes and Arjen Boin 10 Understanding Creeping Crises: Revisiting the Puzzle 165 Arjen Boin, Magnus Ekengren, and Mark Rhinard Index 179 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS Arjen Boin is Professor of Public Institutions and Governance at the Department of Political Science, Leiden University. He is also a managing partner at Crisisplan BV. Magnus Ekengren is Professor of Political Science at the Swedish Defence University. He is a former Swedish diplomat. His publications include Explaining the European Union’s Foreign Policy: A Practice Theory of Translocal Action. Alina Engström is a Research Assistant at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. She has a double master’s degree in politics and public administration and European governance, from the Utrecht School of Governance and University of Konstanz. Her research interests include the European Union, diplomacy, agenda-setting, and crisis management. Elin Jakobsson has a PhD in International Relations from Stockholm University and is a researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. Her research focuses on international norm diffusion with an interest in societal security norms in general and policy discussions on climate-induced migration in particular. Yrsa Landström is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership, Swedish Defence University, Stockholm, Sweden, and has a master’s degree in Terrorism and Political Violence from the University of St Andrews. Her research interests involve poststructuralist xi xii Notes on Contributors and intersectional perspectives on religious violence, terrorism rehabilita- tion, and confict resolution. Marte Luesink has a master’s degree in International Politics from Leiden University. Marte is a researcher at the Dutch Institute for Safety (IFV). Her research interests involve international relations, crisis management, and public security. Maria F. Prevezianou is a PhD candidate at the Swedish Defence University and a consultant at Secana Omegapoint. Her research interests and professional expertise involve strategic cyber security and crisis management, total defense and capability development. Mark Rhinard is Professor of International Relations at Stockholm University and Senior Research Fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. He studies international cooperation on complex threats. His latest book is Nordic Societal Security, co-edited with Sebastian Larsson in 2020 (Routledge). Swapnil Vashishtha is a Research Intern at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. She is pursuing a BSc in Business Administration and Political Science from Stockholm University and is studying at Institut d’Etudes Politique de Paris. Her research interests include security studies, crisis management, and diplomacy. Alexander Verdoes is a PhD candidate at the University of Bergen. His PhD project focuses on how institutions affect regional democracy. Alexander is also interested in the creation and development of institutions and organizations. ABBREVIATIONS AMR Antimicrobial resistance AV Swedish Work Environment Authority CERTs Computer emergency response teams CIb Dutch Center for Infectious Disease Control CQC Care Quality Commission CVW Centre for Safe Living EARSS European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control EU European Union FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FOHM Public Health Agency of Sweden GBB Groninger Bodem

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