By JEFF GOODELL Illustration by MATT MAHURIN

The Pentagon & Climate Change The leaders of our armed forces know what’s coming next: melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and mass migrations that will take a toll on much of our military infrastructure and create countless new threats. But climate deniers in Congress are ignoring the warnings and putting our national security at risk By JEFF GOODELL Illustration by MATT MAHURIN

48 | Rolling Stone | RollingStone.com

The Pentagon

aval station norfolk is the seven feet of sea-level rise by 2100. In 25 headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Atlan- years, operations at most of these bases are likely to be severely compromised. With- tic fleet, an awesome collection of mil- in 50 years, most of them could be goners. itary power that is in a terrible way the If the region gets slammed by a big hurri- crowning glory of American civiliza- cane, the reckoning could come even soon- tion. Seventy-five thousand sailors and er. “You could move some of the ships to other bases or build new, smaller bases in civilians work here, their job the daily more protected places,” says retired Navy business of keeping an armada spit- Capt. Joe Bouchard, a former command- shined and ready for deployment at any er of Naval Station Norfolk. “But the costs would be enormous. We’re talking hun- moment. When I visited in December, dreds of billions of dollars.” the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roos- Rear Adm. Jonathan White, the Na- evelt was in port, a 1,000-foot-long floating war machine that was central to U.S. vy’s chief oceanographer and head of its military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cranes loaded equipment onto the climate-change task force, is one of the most knowledgeable people in the military deck;N sailors rushed up and down the gangplanks. Navy helicopters hovered about what’s actually happening on our overhead. Security was tight everywhere. While I was checking out one of the rapidly heating planet. Whenever another base’s massive new double-decker concrete piers that’s nearly as big as a shop- officer or a congressperson corners White ping-mall parking lot, I wandered over to have a closer look at the USS Grave- and presses him about why he spends so much time thinking about climate change, ly, a guided-missile destroyer that has spent a lot of hours on watch in the Med- he doesn’t even try to explain thermal ex- iterranean. Armed men on the deck watched me warily – even my official escort pansion of the oceans or ice dynamics in seemed jittery (“I think we should step back a bit,” he said, grabbing my arm). the Arctic. “I just take them down to Nor- folk,” White says. “When you see what’s You can’t spend 10 minutes in this part many of them are in just as much trouble. going on down there, it gives you a sense of Virginia without feeling the deep sense At nearby Langley Air Force base, home to of what climate change means to the Navy of history. The Battle of Hampton Roads, two fighter wings and headquarters for the – and to America. And you can see why a famous naval showdown between two Air Combat Command, base command- we’re concerned.” Civil War ironclads, occurred just off- ers keep 30,000 sandbags ready to stack shore. The base was a key departure point around buildings when a big storm comes hose who talk most for thousands of sailors during World War in. At Dam Neck, another Navy base, they about climate change – sci- II, many of whom never returned. Their pile old Christmas trees on the beach to entists, politicians, envi- ghosts still haunt the place. Everyone’s keep it from eroding. At NASA Wallops ronmental activists – tend aunt or uncle has a story to tell about a Flight Facility, NASA armored the shore- to frame the discussion night in a port in Brisbane or Barcelona line with 3 million cubic yards of sand inT economic and moral terms. But last or about the way their ears rang the first to protect its launchpads from sea surg- month, in a dramatic turn, President time they heard a cannon firing from the es. “Military readiness is already being Obama talked about climate change in deck of a ship. impacted by sea-level rise,” says Virginia an explicitly military context: “The Pen- But within the lifetime of a child grow- Sen. Tim Kaine, who mentions that with tagon says that climate change poses im- ing up here, all this could vanish into the all the flooding, it’s becoming difficult to mediate risks to our national security,” he Atlantic Ocean. The land that the base is sell a house in some parts of Norfolk. If the said in his State of the Union address. “We built upon is literally sinking, meaning sea melting of Greenland and West Antarcti- should act like it.” levels are rising in Norfolk roughly twice ca continues to accelerate at current rates, On one level, this is just shrewd poli- as fast as the global average. There is no scientists say Norfolk could see more than tics, a way of talking about climate change high ground, nowhere to retreat. It feels to people who don’t care about extinc- like a swamp that has been dredged and tion rates among reptiles or food pric- paved over – and that’s pretty much what es in eastern Africa. But it’s also a way of it is. All it takes is a rainstorm and a big The future of boxing in all the deniers in Congress who tide and the Atlantic invades the base – have blocked climate action – many of roads are submerged, entry gates impass- crucial military whom, it turns out, are big supporters of able. A nor’easter had moved through the the military. The Senate Armed Services area the day before my visit. On Craney Is- bases, many Committee is made up of characters like land, the base’s main refueling depot, mil- James Inhofe of Oklahoma, Ted Cruz of itary vehicles were up to their axles in sea- of them Texas and Jeff Sessions of Alabama, and is water. Water pooled in a long, flat grassy headed by John McCain of Arizona, who, area near Admiral’s Row, where naval irreplaceable before he ran for president in 2008, had commanders live in magnificent houses been an outspoken advocate for climate built for the 1907 Jamestown Exposition. due to their action, but has been silent on the issue in “It’s the biggest Navy base in the world, recent years. The House Armed Services and it’s going to have to be relocated,” says geography Committee is now chaired by Rep. Mac former Vice President Al Gore. “It’s just a Thornberry of Texas, who argued in a 2011 question of when.” or strategic op-ed that prayer is a better response to There are 29 other military bases, ship- heat waves and drought than cutting car- yards and installations in the area, and location, is in bon pollution. Any official who draws a link between Jeff Goodell is writing a book about question. climate change and national security is the impact of global sea-level rise. guaranteed a rabid reaction from right-

50 | Rolling Stone | RollingStone.com February 26, 2015 wingers. Outgoing Secretary of Defense Port in a Storm undermine any connection between cli- Chuck Hagel recently called climate mate and national security. Case in point: Aircraft carriers in port at Naval change “a threat multiplier” that “has the Station Norfolk, America’s largest In 2009, then-CIA director Leon Pa- potential to exacerbate many of the chal- naval base (above). Below: As sea netta quietly started the Center on Cli- lenges we are dealing with today – from levels rise, floods have become more mate Change and National Security. It infectious disease to terrorism.” In re- common on the base. was a straightforward attempt by the in- sponse, The Wall Street Journal editori- telligence community to gather a better al page blasted Hagel as a delusional tree- understanding of the changes to come. hugger: “Americans who might die at the Among other things, the Center funded a hands of the Islamic State won’t care that major study of the relationships between Mr. Hagel is mobilizing against melting climate change and social stress, under the glaciers.” In a speech in Jakarta last year auspices of the National Academy of Sci- – a city of almost 30 million that is sink- ences, one of the most respected scientific ing rapidly – Secretary of State John Kerry organizations in the country. Climate de- called climate change “perhaps the world’s niers in Congress didn’t like it, especially most fearsome weapon of mass destruc- Republican John Barrasso of Wyoming, a tion” and likened it to terrorism, epidem- Big Coal state. By the time the report was ics and poverty. McCain immediately dis- completed, Panetta had left the CIA and missed Kerry’s concerns and accused him warned that threats to global stability his successor, Gen. David Petraeus, let it of “butterflying around the world, say- posed by rapid warming vastly eclipse that wither. “We felt constant pressure to water ing all kinds of things”; former Republi- of terrorism. Some of the climate science down our conclusions,” says one of the co- can leader Newt Gingrich tweeted, “Every in the report was flawed, but the broad- authors of the National Academy report. American who cares about national secu- er conclusions were not. “Disruption and The day the report was released, the press rity must demand Kerry’s resignation. A conflict will be endemic features of life,” conference was suddenly canceled, and delusional secretary of state is dangerous the report stated. “Once again, warfare the report was buried. A few weeks later, to our safety.” would define human life.” the Center on Climate Change and Na- Before climate change became taboo Even McCain, now firmly in the denial tional Security was disbanded. for Republicans, it was possible for even camp, didn’t hesitate to draw the connec- Barrasso has also been a key figure in conservative politicians to have rational tion between climate change and nation- derailing Senate hearings on the connec- discussions about the subject. In 2003, al security. “If the scientists are right and tion between climate and national secu- under Donald Rumsfeld, former Presi- temperatures continue to rise,” he said on rity. Last year, Daniel Chiu, one of the dent George W. Bush’s defense secretary, the Senate floor in 2007, “we could face Pentagon’s top strategists, testified intel- the Pentagon published a report titled “An environmental, economic and national- ligently about the national-security im- Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its security consequences far beyond our abil- plications of climate change. But in the Implications for United States National ity to imagine.” Q&A period that followed, Barrasso dis- Security.” Commissioned by Andrew Mar- This kind of talk vanished from the appeared into fantasyland, quizzing Chiu shall, who is sometimes jokingly referred party after 2008, when the GOP turned about “global international crime syndi- to within the Pentagon as Yoda – and who into a subsidiary of Koch Industries. Since cates” that are manipulating European en-

FROM TOP: MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS ERNEST R. SCOTT/U.S. NAVY; PHOTOGRAPHER’S MATE 1ST CLASS MICHAEL PENDERGRASS/U.S. NAVY was a favorite of Rumsfeld’s – the report then, Republicans have worked hard to vironmental policies “to aid and support

February 26, 2015 RollingStone.com | Rolling Stone | 51 The Pentagon terrorist organizations and drug cartels base on Diego Garcia, a small coral atoll spots – and Virginia is one of them. The that wish to do us and our allies harm.” in the Indian Ocean, like the nearby Mal- Republican-dominated Virginia General Deniers in Congress have gone after dives, is sure to vanish. Built during the Assembly has been hostile to discussion of the Pentagon where military officials feel Cold War, Diego Garcia gave the U.S. mil- climate change – one legislator called sea- it most: their budget. Last year, House itary a footing from which to counter So- level rise “a left-wing term.” Instead, the Republicans tagged an amendment onto viet influence in the region, as well as to politically acceptable phrase in Virginia the defense appropriations bill that pro- protect shipping lanes out of the Middle is “recurrent flooding.” hibited the Pentagon from spending any East. In more recent years, this rare stra- This makes it hard for the Navy to deal money implementing recommendations tegic asset has become a crucial logis- with the most immediate problem Nor- from the latest report of the U.N. Inter- tics hub for sending supplies to joint forc- folk faces: keeping its roads open. One governmental Panel on Climate Change. es in the Middle East, the Mediterranean study by the Virginia Institute for Ma- “The amendment had no effect on the de- and Southern Europe. It also houses Air rine Science identified nearly 300 miles fense budget, since the IPCC’s recommen- Force Satellite Control Network equip- of flood-vulnerable roads in the Nor- dations don’t really apply to us,” one Pen- ment used to control GPS. The ships and folk area. “If people can’t get to work on tagon insider told me. “But the the base because the roads are intent was clear: This is going flooded out, we have a big prob- to be war.” lem,” says Capt. J. Pat Rios, who is in charge of Navy facilities he scale of mil- in the mid-Atlantic region. But itary assets that are roads in Norfolk are the state’s at risk due to our responsibility, and rebuild- rapidly changing ing them is not a priority right climate is mind- now. Because a number of the boggling.T The Pentagon manages men and women in the Virgin- more than 555,000 facilities and ia Legislature don’t believe cli- 28 million acres of land – virtu- mate change is an urgent issue, ally all of which will be impacted they don’t want to spend much by climate change in some way. money addressing the threat it Nearly every naval and Air poses. “They find roads to fix in Force base on the East Coast is other parts of the state,” says Joe vulnerable to sea-level rise and Bouchard. storm surges, including Eglin For now, the Navy’s strategy Air Force Base, the largest Air is just to buy time. In the late Force base in the United States, which Land-grabbing in the Arctic 1990s, Navy engineers realized that the is on the low-lying Florida Panhandle, In 2007, a Russian sub planted its 13 piers at the base, some dating back to and Patrick Air Force Base on Florida’s country’s flag on the Arctic seabed. World War II, were reaching the end of Atlantic Coast. In the West, the prob- Melting ice caps have opened up a their life spans. Because they had been lem is often drought and flash flooding. new ocean in the resource-rich region built at a time when nobody gave a thought Fort Irwin, a seven-square-mile Army that the U.S. is ill-equipped to protect. to sea-level rise, the piers were relatively base in Southern California, on the edge low to the water. At high tide, the utilities of the Mojave Desert, has troubles with that ran along the underside of the pier both. California’s epic drought has put the equipment can be moved easily enough, decks – electrical, steam, phone, Internet base’s long-term water supply into ques- but giving up a military toehold in a vital – were often immersed in water, render- tion. Fort Irwin is one of the only bases in but flammable part of the world is not ing them unusable. “It was not a nuisance the U.S. with the space and the isolation something the military likes to do. “To the problem – it was not a minor operational to allow full-scale mock tank warfare. At Navy, presence matters,” says retired Rear issue,” says Bouchard. “Sea-level rise was the same time, the base has been pounded Adm. David Titley. interfering with combat readiness for the by extreme rain events. In August 2013, The Pentagon is examining its 704 Atlantic fleet.” when a year’s worth of rain fell in 80 min- coastal installations and sites in a big So far, four new piers have been built, utes, flooding caused $64 million in dam- study to try to figure out which bases are which are higher, stronger and better- ages on the base. most at risk. Eventually some tough de- designed than the old piers. Bouchard, Up in Alaska, the problem is thaw- cisions will have to be made about which who was commander while the first new ing permafrost and coastal erosion from ones to close, relocate or protect. Even piers were constructed, says “they were stronger storms and higher tides. The Air speculating about the number of possi- built with sea-level rise in mind.” But out Force’s early-warning radar installations, ble closures is too hot a topic for anyone in on the base, nobody wants to talk direct- which help the U.S. keep a close watch the Pentagon to touch right now. But the ly about spending money to deal with sea- on anything lobbed our way from North process can’t be put off much longer. The level rise, mostly because they are worried Korea or Russia, have been hit particularly next meeting of the Base Realignment and about drawing scrutiny from climate de- hard. At one installation, 40 feet of shore- Closure Commission could occur as soon niers in Congress, who are happy to red- line have been lost, endangering the reli- as 2017. “In BRAC, all of the decisions are line any expenditure with the word “cli- ability of the radar. At other installations, based on the military value,” says John mate” in it. Instead, many people in the thawing permafrost has caused the radar Conger, the deputy undersecretary of de- military end up talking about the climate to tilt and fall out of alignment. fense, who is responsible for BRAC. “Will similar to the way eighth-graders talk In some places, these impacts are lit- climate change affect the military value about sex – with code words and sugges- tle more than expensive nuisances. But of the installation? Well, sure it will. The tive language. in others, the future of entire installa- question is, does it dominate the equation? “We didn’t raise the piers because of cli- tions, many of them virtually irreplace- And I don’t think it does – yet.” mate change,” Capt. Rios tells me during able due to their geography and strate- Just as there are climate-change hot my visit to the base. He doesn’t quite wink,

gic location, is in question. The U.S. naval spots, there are also climate-denial hot but almost. IMAGES CHANNEL/AP RUSSIAN RTR

52 | Rolling Stone | RollingStone.com February 26, 2015 Flashpoints in a Warming World Climate change will accelerate threats and greatly hinder our ability to respond to them

Bering Strait The Arctic Pakistan Bangladesh Philippines This 50-mile-wide body The next battleground of super- Described by the World Widely seen as In the wake of 2013’s of water separating power conflict. The opening Bank as “one of the most the nation most Typhoon Haiyan, which the U.S. and Russia will of ice-free sea lanes through water-stressed countries threatened by killed 6,300 and dislo- become a strategic the High North will cut shipping in the world.” Water short- climate change. By cated 4.1 million more, and economic choke times between Asia and Europe ages, drought and flooding 2050, 17 percent the U.S. mounted a point, akin to the highly by a third, which will revolution- are already causing social of the nation’s massive relief operation. militarized Strait of ize global trade. The U.S., China unrest. Pakistan increasingly landmass could As climate change pro- Hormuz. Currently, the and Russia are already vying relies on water from the be underwater, duces more and bigger U.S. Navy has no sig- for control of Arctic ports, not Indus River, which originates displacing some 18 storms, such operations nificant presence here. to mention the region’s vast oil in India, ratcheting up ten- million people. will increasingly tax our and mineral wealth. sions between these bitterly military resources and mistrustful nuclear powers. readiness.

Northern Mexico As drought and famine persist in the world’s most impoverished areas, already- Africa Iraq and Syria fragile governments will Climate change is undermining food security Long-term drought, which has forced nearly weaken, if not collapse across the continent, increasing the risk of a million Syrian farmers and herders from entirely. Our first brush with conflicts and instability. Nine African nations their land, is a key driver of that country’s famine-motivated mass are considered to be at “extreme risk” of civil war – as well as larger regional conflicts. migration could come from food shortages. In Nigeria, flash flooding and ISIS exercises its power in part from seizing our southern border, where droughts have dislocated millions, spurring and controlling water supplies, setting a a historic drought is already the rise of murderous quasi-political organiza- dangerous precedent that other terrorist causing food shortages. tions like Boko Haram. organizations will surely emulate.

“Then why did you raise them?” I ask. ea-level rise is only one of ocean,” says Adm. Gary Roughead, who “Because we needed new piers. And as the climate-driven threats was U.S. chief of naval operations from long as we were building them, it didn’t that are making the world 2007 to 2011. “It’s a once-in-a-millenni- cost much more to build them higher.” more dangerous and volatile. um event.” Thirteen percent of the world’s But building higher piers is not going Drought contributed to the es- undiscovered petroleum lies beneath the to save the base in Norfolk. No matter Scalating food prices that triggered the Arctic, as does 30 percent of the undis- how much money the Pentagon spends, Arab Spring revolt in Egypt, in 2011; it covered natural gas and more than $1 tril- it won’t matter if people can’t get to the also helped trigger the civil war in Syria. lion of mineral wealth. “The best way I’ve base because roads are underwater or no- In northern Nigeria, a region destabilized heard it explained,” says Rear Adm. Dan- body wants to live in the area because the by extreme cycles of drought and flooding, iel Abel of the U.S. Coast Guard, “imagine value of their homes is spiraling down. Boko Haram is terrorizing villages and if you have the Panama Canal and Saudi “To save the base, you have to save the re- killing thousands of Nigerians. Arabia’s worth of energy show up at the gion,” says Bouchard. With the help of the Climate change is also reshaping the same place in your area of responsibility. White House, state and local officials re- boundaries of the continents. Nowhere How would you embrace that?” cently set up an innovative two-year pilot more so than in the Arctic, which is like- You can already see glimpses of a mili- project with the Navy to begin to address ly to become a major flashpoint in the ter- tarized future in the Arctic. In 2007, Rus- these problems. But right now, solutions ritorial disputes and resource wars of the sian soldiers dived 14,000 feet beneath are a long way off. future. “The melting ice is opening a new the North Pole in a minisub and plant-

Map by John Grimwade RollingStone.com | Rolling Stone | 53 The Pentagon ed a Russian flag in the seabed, marking big enough to allow transpolar shipping an encounter with Russian military – and it as their turf. “This isn’t the 15th centu- to expand on the Northern Sea Route, having to pick up the phone and say, ‘I’m ry – you can’t go around the world and which passes through the Barents Sea sorry, Mr. President. We’d like to do some- just plant flags” to claim territory, Cana- along the Russian coastline and cuts the thing about this, but we simply don’t have da’s minister of foreign affairs, Peter Mac transit time between Asia and Europe the equipment to allow us to respond to Kay, said dismissively. Last September, six by a third. As the ice thaws, there will be the situation.’ ” Russian jet fighters were detected near more tourists sailing in the Northwest When it comes to safety and securi- Alaska; when U.S. and Canadian fighters Passage along the Canadian coast. There ty in the Arctic, no piece of equipment is intercepted the Russian planes about 55 will be more drilling in the Chukchi Sea as important as an icebreaker. Virtual- miles off the coast – still outside of Amer- west of Alaska. There will be more traffic ly every nation with a claim to the Arc- ican airspace, but closer than they usual- to Greenland, where mining companies tic knows this: Russia has 43 icebreakers ly fly – the Russians turned around and are already lining up to extract miner- (six of them nuclear-powered); Canada headed home, but it was a close encoun- als that will be made accessible by the re- has 13; Finland has nine. The U.S. has ter and one that has been happening with treating ice sheets. With all this new mar- one, the Polar Star, which is operated by increasing frequency in recent months. In itime traffic, it’s inevitable that the Navy the U.S. Coast Guard. It’s nearly 40 years November, a Russian sub in the Barents will have to respond to more and more in- old. Within a decade, it will be scrapped, Sea near Greenland test-fired a Bulava in- cidents up there, from search-and-rescue and there are no plans to build another tercontinental missile – the Bulava is Rus- missions to possibly countering the ag- one. “By not funding them,” says Titley, sia’s latest and most deadly nuclear weap- “we telegraph to the rest of the world that on. The missile has a range of about 5,000 we don’t care about the Arctic.” miles and can be loaded with up to 10 nu- The price tag for a new icebreaker is $1 clear warheads, each of which can be indi- Republicans in billion – not cheap, but about one-third vidually maneuvered. A Bulava launched the price of a destroyer. And not some- from a sub in the Arctic could easily reach Congress have thing Rep. Duncan Hunter, the San Diego Boston, New York or Washington, D.C. climate denier who chairs the House sub- Within the Pentagon, these provoca- made clear that committee that oversees Coast Guard af- tions were seen as more than old Cold War fairs, wants to hear about. (Although he game-playing. In the eyes of some plan- any item in the does seem to be in favor of an ice-free Arc- ners, Putin was sending a not-very-subtle tic: “Thousands of people die every year message that he thinks of the Arctic the Pentagon of cold, so if we had global warming it same way Americans once thought of the would save lives,” he told a group of Cali- West: a vast, uncivilized landscape of re- budget that fornians in 2009.) In the view of one Pen- sources that will be dominated by whom- tagon watcher, the problem is not just that ever stakes the first claim. mentions the deniers like Hunter don’t see the need for After the Cold War, the U.S. military icebreakers, “they don’t see the need for largely forgot about the Arctic. It was too word “climate” any kind of strategic thinking about the hostile, too forbidding, too expensive to Arctic at all.” Without active icebreak- operate there, and without the Soviets to is going to set ers, California Rep. John Garamendi, the worry about, there was little reason to. ranking Democrat on Hunter’s subcom- In the 1990s, as Big Oil developed plans off alarm bells. mittee, told the Associated Press that to explore the region for oil and gas, the “the control of the Arctic is in the hands Navy’s concern grew – Roughead says a of Russia.” big blowout on an offshore drilling rig in gressive actions of the Russian navy. Or, The other issue is the lawlessness of the Arctic “would make Deepwater Hori- nearly as likely, from the Chinese, who the new ocean, especially when it comes zon look like a cakewalk.” But given the are eager to tap into the rich oil and gas to oil and gas exploration under the re- complexities of drilling in the Arctic, that reserves in the Arctic. “The U.S. Navy treating ice. Every nation enjoys sover- seemed like a distant-future threat. doesn’t cede an ocean to anybody,” Titley eign rights 200 miles off its coastline – but Naval leaders began to think different- argues. “We are a great power.” what about beyond that? How should it be ly about the region in 2007, which, when But the U.S. Navy is also, according to divvied up? In 2010, a Chinese admiral the history of climate change is written, Roughead, “woefully unprepared” to op- claimed that since China has 20 percent will go down as one of the turning points. erate in the icy, unforgiving Arctic. The of the world’s population, it should have That summer, scientists were stunned by Navy doesn’t have good weather-forecast- 20 percent of the Arctic’s resources. Fair an unexpected vanishing of sea ice that ing ability there; satellite communica- or not, that is surely not a view that Rus- exposed 1 million square miles of open tions are unreliable; only about 10 percent sia – or the United States, for that matter water – six Californias – beyond the aver- of the seabed has been surveyed, so navi- – is likely to endorse. age since satellites started measurements gators are unaware of undersea obstacles. To resolve these sorts of claims, as well in 1979. Roughead assembled a special Submarine missions have also become as to give legal structure to the rights and Navy task force to figure out what was more dangerous due to unpredictable sea responsibilities of countries with respect going on. “I wanted to really understand ice-freezing patterns. Most important, to the oceans, United Nations members the long-term trends so we could begin because nobody in the Navy was prior- spent decades negotiating an agreement, to think strategically about the challeng- itizing the need to operate in the Arc- formally known as the United Nations es we might face in the Arctic, and what tic, few Navy ships are prepared for cold Convention on Law of the Sea. Among we needed to operate up there,” Roughead weather. Their water and ventilation sys- other things, UNCLOS recognizes that says. “The idea was to be more thought- tems don’t work properly in freezing tem- nations have a right to claim resources ful about this than to just run around the peratures, their hulls are not hardened along what is known as their “extended Pentagon shouting, ‘Hey, everybody, cli- against ice. As Titley puts it, “Every Navy continental shelf,” which basically means mate change is a big deal!’ ” commander’s nightmare is that some- any recognizable land features that extend Navy scientists estimate that by 2025 thing happens in the Arctic – a ship full underwater beyond the 200-mile bor- the summer ice melt in the Arctic will be of tourists going down, a terrorist attack, der. The agreement was finalized in 1982

54 | Rolling Stone | RollingStone.com February 26, 2015 and now has been agreed to by more than ert Freeman, a meteorologist and member And we need to start talking about it now, 60 countries, including Russia and every of the Navy’s climate-change task force. because not only will the threats multi- other Arctic nation – except the U.S. Al- Adm. Samuel Locklear III, who is in ply, so will the questions we have to ad- though the agreement is widely supported charge of all U.S. armed forces in the Pacif- dress. It’s one thing to plan for the inva- by Big Oil, U.S. military leaders and every ic, is one of the most respected men in the sion of Normandy Beach or the siege of American president since Ronald Reagan, U.S. military – and the one with the tough- Fallujah – it’s quite another to plan for opponents like Sen. Inhofe, dean of the est job, with both China and North Korea being the rescue squad for the entire plan- congressional climate deniers, and Ohio to watch over. “The political and social up- et. We have already spent more than $1 Rep. Jim Jordan have been able to block heaval we’re likely to see from our rapidly trillion in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no U.S. participation by claiming the agree- warming planet,” Locklear told The Bos- measurable success. How much more can ment infringes on American freedom and ton Globe in 2013, “is probably the most we afford to do? “I think we have to make that royalty provisions in the agreement likely thing that . . . will cripple the securi- some strategic choices,” says Roughead. would allow a corrupt “U.N.-style “Which parts of the world do we bureaucracy” to divert billions of care about most? What are the dollars from the U.S. economy by strategic flashpoints? Do we want “taxing” corporate profits. to be able to operate in the Arctic The resources that the U.S. or not? What kind of world are we could justifiably claim if it recog- preparing for?” Some intelligence nized the Law of the Sea are vast. analysts argue that U.S. military In Alaska alone, the continen- superiority will be the least signif- tal shelf extends 600 miles from icant asset in the future because the coast, with an estimated 73 no one will attack us with massive billion barrels of oil and oil-equiv- conventional force. Instead, we alent natural gas. Supporters of will be pulled deeper and deep- the agreement estimate these er into smaller conflicts driven by resources could generate more terrorism, failed states and natu- than $193 billion in federal, state ral disasters. “When oceans rise, and local revenue over a 50-year instability follows,” says Secretary period. of the Navy Ray Mabus. Setting aside the economic Ashton Carter, Obama’s pick for consequences, from a national- secretary of defense, is not known security perspective, it’s foolish to to Pentagon insiders for his focus exempt ourselves from the one in- on the threats of climate change. ternational agreement that can resolve Unfriendly Climate And the chances of any significant action disputes over territorial claims before in Congress before 2016 are close to zero. they escalate. “I believe our being in the Sen. James Inhofe grilling Adm. But as chaos rises, it is inevitable that we Samuel Locklear III (above). Below: treaty would make for greater stability will ask our military to do more. At some Once a leading voice on the climate, and security, and not just in the Arctic,” Sen. John McCain, chairman of the point, climate denialism will flip into cli- Roughead argues. “It will also allow our Senate Armed Services Committee, mate panic, and the demand for law and claims to the extended continental shelf now rarely mentions the issue. order and stability will prevail (as will to be recognized internationally.” As for the calls for quick and dangerous techno- the argument advanced by Inhofe and fixes like geo-engineering to cool down others that by joining the treaty we would the planet and stop the rising seas). As one weaken the powers of the U.S. Navy and military analyst has pointed out, the U.S. Coast Guard and turn authority over to military is the only force on Earth with the United Nations, Roughead is imme- the ability to police, process, house, feed diately dismissive: “That is simply not and move refugees on a mass scale. But the case.” you can see how this picture could turn dark fast – one of the biggest long-term s the world warms, the threats climate change poses could be to U.S. military will inevita- civil liberties and freedom. “It’s not a ques- bly be called upon to con- tion of what the military can do for climate duct more disaster relief ty environment, probably more likely than change,” says one former Pentagon official. and humanitarian-aid mis- the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’ “It’s what climate change will do to the mil- sions.A The U.S. military, of course, is not Soon afterward, Locklear was sum- itary and its mission.” It’s a scary notion, a polar-bear rescue operation. “The mil- moned before the Senate Armed Servic- but that’s where we are headed. In the end, itary has many important roles,” says es Committee, where Inhofe asked him to it doesn’t matter how many climate-adap- Sharon Burke, a former assistant sec- “clarify” his remarks. And he did, calm- tation road maps the Pentagon puts out. retary of defense. “But the main job is ly and forcefully, schooling the senator We are now committed to a future of dis- to fight wars. That means breaking in how steadily increasing populations in order and conflict – one in which today’s things and killing people.” But the mil- Asia would only put more people at risk emergencies will always interrupt tomor- itary also prides itself on its practical- from storms and other climate-related di- row’s plans. mindedness, both in times of war and of sasters. “OK, I’m going to start to inter- One White House staffer recalls walking peace. Military leaders embraced deseg- rupt you here,” Inhofe said, realizing it into the Pentagon office of an Army gener- regation long before the rest of the na- was a losing battle. He quickly changed al not long ago. “I’d like to talk to you about tion, in part because they wanted the best the subject. climate change,” the staffer told him. The people they could find, no matter what What Locklear correctly foresees is that general didn’t even bother to look up. “I’d color. “It’s our job to deal with the world as a world of climate-driven chaos is already like to,” he said. “But I have to write a letter

FROM TOP: J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/AP IMAGES; ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES it is, not as we wish it could be,” says Rob- upon us, and it’s only going to get worse. to a family whose son has died.”

February 26, 2015 RollingStone.com | Rolling Stone | 55