Go West: ASU Leadership Retreat to Los Angeles
Michael M. Crow President June 15, 2017 ASU in California ASU Students from California
ASU enrolled 11,584 students from 1,239 California zip codes in 2016 Source: ASU Office of Institutional Analysis ASU Students from L.A.
Students per Zip Code
1 65 Source: ASU Office of Institutional Analysis Kyle Whitman Six Californias + One Arizona Six Californias + One Arizona
Jefferson
North California Central California
Silicon Valley
West California
South California Population, 2017
14
12
10
8
6 Millions 4
2
0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: State of California, State of Arizona Population, 1970-2050
16 Actual Projected South California 14 West California 12 Arizona 10 Silicon Valley 8 Central California Millions 6 North California 4
2 Jefferson 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, States of Arizona and California Population Relative to 1970
600% Actual Projected Arizona 500%
400%
Central California 300% South California North California 200% Jefferson Silicon Valley 100% West California 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, States of Arizona and California Race and Ethnic Composition
100% Other 90% Asian 80% Black 70% 60% Hispanic 50% 40% 30% 20% White 10% 0% Central Jefferson N.California Silicon S.California W.California Arizona California Valley
Source: Six Californias, LAO, US Census Bureau Total Personal Income, 2005-2015
$700 West California $600 Silicon Valley South California $500
$400
Billion $300 Arizona North California $200 Central California $100 Jefferson $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table CA1 Per Capita Personal Income, 2005-2015
$80,000 Silicon Valley
$70,000
$60,000 West California North California $50,000 South California Jefferson $40,000 Arizona Central California $30,000
$20,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table CA1 Per Capita Personal Income Relative to National Average, 2005-2015
160% Silicon Valley 150% 140% 130% 120% West California 110% North California
100% South California 90% Jefferson 80% Arizona 70% Central California 60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table CA1 Cost of Living and Incomes in US Metros Relative to US Averages, 2014
150 San Jose San Francisco 140
130 y = x 120 Silicon Valley Santa Barbara Oxnard Napa West California 110 Sacramento Los Angeles San Luis Obispo Santa Cruz North California Salinas San Diego Santa Rosa South California 100 Sierra Vista Phoenix Yuba City Flagstaff Redding Jefferson
100 = US Average 100 US = Tucson Bakersfield 90 Merced Chico Fresno Modesto Vallejo Arizona El Centro Stockton Per Capita Personal Income, Prescott Madera 80 Hanford Central California Riverside Yuma Other US Metros 70 Lake Havasu 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Regional Price Parities, 100 = US Average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RPP2 Dataset and Table CA1 Cost of Living Adjusted Per Capita Personal Income, 2014
Silicon $50,000 Valley Arizona Central Jefferson North South West California California California California $45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RPP2 Dataset and Table CA1 Patents Granted, 2000-2015
30,000
25,000 Silicon Valley
20,000
15,000
10,000 South California West California Arizona 5,000 North California Central California 0 Jefferson 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: USPTO, Office of Patent Technology Monitoring Public Universities by Region
Central California UC: Merced; CSU: Bakersfield, Fresno, Stanislaus Jefferson CSU: Chico, Humboldt North California UC: Davis; CSU: Maritime Academy, Sacramento, Sonoma Silicon Valley UC: Berkeley, San Francisco, Santa Cruz; CSU: East Bay, Monterey Bay, San Francisco, San Jose South California UC: Irvine, Riverside, San Diego; CSU: Fullerton, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Marcos West California UC: Los Angeles, Santa Barbara; CSU: Channel Islands, Dominguez Hills, Long Beach, Northridge, Pomona, San Luis Obispo Undergrad Enrollment at Public and Private Four Year Colleges, 2015
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000 ASU
0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Pell Grant Enrollment at Public and Private Four Year Colleges, 2015
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000 ASU 0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Pell Enrollment as Percent of Total Enrollment at Public and Private Four Year Colleges, 2015
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Central Jefferson North Silicon South West Arizona ASU California California Valley California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Graduate Student Enrollment at Public and Private Colleges, 2015
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000 ASU 0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Public and Private Colleges, 2015
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000 ASU 0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Master’s Degrees Awarded by Public and Private Colleges, 2015
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000 ASU 0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Doctorate Degrees Awarded by Public and Private Colleges, 2015
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000 ASU 0 Central Jefferson North Silicon Valley South West Arizona California California California California
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS L.A. Market Analysis GDP of L.A. Region and Arizona Relative to Peer Countries
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000
Billions $800 $600 $400 $200 $0
Source: World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis Educational Attainment
60%
50%
40% High School or Less 30% Some College 20% Bachelor’s or 10% Higher
0% Los Orange Riverside San Ventura California Arizona Angeles Bernardino
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Table S051 Public and Private Colleges in L.A.
CSU San Bernardino CSU Northridge
UCLA CSU Los Angeles
Cal-Poly Pomona USC
CSU Fullerton UC Riverside
CSU Dominguez Hills
Undergraduate Enrollment, 2015 CSU Long Beach 36,986
17,686
6,647 UC Irvine Data source: US Department of Education, IPEDS Undergraduate Enrollment at Public and Private Four Year Colleges per 10,000 Population, 2001-2015
300
Orange 250 Los Angeles
200 L.A. Region
150 Riverside Ventura 100 San Bernardino
50
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table CA1 Graduate Enrollment at Public and Private Colleges per 10,000 Population, 2001-2015
120
100 Los Angeles Orange 80 L.A. Region
60
40 San Bernardino Ventura 20 Riverside
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: US Department of Education, IPEDS and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table CA1 To maintain 2015 enrollment ratios with projected population growth, the L.A. region will need to add 82,493 undergraduate and 22,970 graduate seats by 2060. Projected Undergraduate Enrollment at Public and Private Colleges Above 2015 Levels
90,000 L.A. Region 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
Los Angeles Additional Additional Students 20,000 Riverside San Bernardino 10,000 Orange 0 Ventura Projected Graduate Enrollment at Public and Private Colleges Above 2015 Levels
25,000 L.A. Region
20,000
15,000
Los Angeles 10,000
Additional Additional Students San Bernardino 5,000 Orange Riverside 0 Ventura