NPCC Aviation Working Group

Appendix B – Data Analysis

To support the development of the user requirement, and to provide an evidence base for the proposals, an analysis of demand for air support in 2017 was undertaken. Key Findings

• The highest overall demand for air support came from the Service, followed by Merseyside, West Midlands, South Wales and • Cumbria, and Lincolnshire showed the lowest levels of demand • The highest demand for air support for spontaneous calls (classified as misper, suspect searches or vehicle pursuits) came from the Metropolitan Police, West Midlands, GMP, West Yorkshire and Police • City of London Police, BTP and Dyfed-Powys Constabulary showed the least demand for this type of call • Volume of crime is directly influenced by population level - suggesting that air assets should be based close to major cities as there is greater potential demand • Relative demand levels for each police force were calculated, identifying forces that are potentially underusing air support. These forces include Cumbria, City of London Police, Lincolnshire and . It was found that in Cumbria, air support was requested in 0.03% of crime occurrences. • Low demand for air support may be a result of distance from NPAS bases, or other factors such as weather conditions, terrain or availability of aircraft. • Demand for air support generally peaks between the hours of 2300-0100. The lowest demand is seen between the hours of 0600-0800 • Demand stays relatively consistent throughout the year. The busiest months were July, April and August. The quietest were December, February and September. Intelligence Gaps

Latent Demand Determining latent demand for air support has proved difficult as forces do not record when they may have decided not to call for a viable incident. For example, if the weather forecast on a particular day results in NPAS denying a call for air support, the force is less likely to call again for another incident on the same day. Therefore, in areas such as Cumbria, North Wales or North Yorkshire where there are large, remote areas with poor weather conditions, latent demand is likely to be higher than reported, as it is more likely that requests would be declined.

Underuse of Air Support An attempt has been made to determine if we can identify those forces that may be underusing air support. This has been calculated by using crime volume against number of calls for NPAS. It is acknowledged that some crimes will not require air support and therefore this calculation may only provide a proxy measure. Forces which experience higher proportions of crimes that would not require air support (such as sexual offences, domestic abuse, ASB, cycle crime, etc) may indicate an underuse of air support in comparison to others but there may be limited demand for such a service in the area.

Drones

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Drones are a relatively new technology and there is currently inconsistent distribution across and Wales. If officers and staff had easier access to drones, this would potentially result in a greater use of air support in managing incidents and events. This could only be accurately determined once their use has become more commonplace.

Total Demand The below heat map shows demand for NPAS in 2017 by police force area. The highest number of calls received came from the Metropolitan Police, at 8214. The 2nd highest demand came from Merseyside (3511), followed by West Midlands (3269), South Wales (2904) and Thames Valley Police (2776). The force areas with the lowest demand for air support in 2017 were Lincolnshire (180), Cumbria (28), and City of London Police (10).

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Spontaneous Demand for Air Support

The below map shows spontaneous calls for air support (classified as Misper, suspect searches or vehicle pursuits requiring a helicopter or fixed wing aircraft).

The highest is the Metropolitan Police (422) followed by West Midlands (365) and GMP (258). The lowest demand for this type of call came from BTP, City of London Police and Cumbria, all having no calls for this category. Dyfed- Powys Constabulary requested air support once and Lincolnshire requested 9 times.

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Location of Crime

This heat map shows crime volume using data for 2017. The volume of all crime has been totalled and normalised by area for each force, so that crime volume for forces with a larger areas are not skewed (e.g. Thames Valley Police, Dyfed-Powys). This also indicates areas where crime density is highest, indicating areas that may become greater users of air support in the future.

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Hotspots of high crime areas include the Metropolitan , West Midlands, Greater Manchester and Merseyside. It should be noted that the Metropolitan police area appears to have an ‘overspill’ effect, as the forces surrounding London experience higher crime per km2 than more rural counties. Counties such as Devon and Cornwall, Dorset or Yorkshire are sparsely populated, and therefore experience lower crime volumes per km2.

Using the same crime data and population data from the Office of National Statistics, it can be seen that crime hotspots occur in areas with a higher population. As population increases, so does crime. This has future implications for the provision of air support, as it should be anticipated that higher demand will come from densely populated areas, supporting the proposal that air assets should be based close to major cities where there is more potential demand.

Demand Patterns

Based upon NPAS call data from 2017, peak hours of demand are between 2300 and 0100. Demand drops towards the early hours of the morning, rising steadily again from 0600 onwards. There is a slight dip in demand at 1800-1900 and at 0600-0700. These dips can be explained by the current shift changes.

All Demand for Air Support: Time of Day 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

The same pattern is also evident when looking at just mispers, suspect and vehicles.

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Demand for Air Support (misper, suspect, vehicle): Time of Day 350 300

250 200

150 100

50 0

Regional Analysis

When considering the distribution of demand across the current NPAS regions, it is clear that the majority of the demand sits within London and South East, with this demand nearly double that of the next busiest region. This breakdown of demand can be used to inform the distribution of air assets by flying hours.

Total Demand by Region

London and South East Region 22173

South West 11809

North West 10254

Central 8734

North East 7532

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Region Demand London and South East Region 22173 36.65% South West 11809 19.52% North West 10254 16.95% Central 8734 14.44% North East 7532 12.45% Totals 60502 100.00%

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