Heat Mapping and Masterplanning for Development of District Energy Networks in Blaenau Gwent

Project Number: S0596 Version: 3 Checked by: Chrissy Woodman Date of issue: 14/9/15 Heat Mapping and Masterplanning for Development of District Energy Networks in Blaenau Gwent Prepared for: Prepared by: Christian Cadwallader and Amy Taylor Gabriel Gallagher and Lee Evans Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council Sustainable Energy Ltd Business Resource Centre 2 Alexandra Gate Tafarnaubach Industrial Estate Cardiff Tredegar CF24 2SA NP22 3AA Direct: 02920 894940 Direct: 01495 355850 Email: [email protected] Email:christian.cadwallader@blaenau- gwent.gov.uk CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 TABLE OF FIGURES 8 1 INTRODUCTION 9 2 HEAT MAPPING 17 3 MASTERPLANNING & PRIORITISATION 37 4 SENSITIVITY & RISK ANALYSIS 65 5 CONCLUSIONS 75 6 NEXT STEPS 81 APPENDIX 1 – ENERGY DATA 84 APPENDIX 2 – NETWORK ASSESSMENT 89 APPENDIX 3 – HEAT DEMAND MODELLING 93 APPENDIX 4 – INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGIES 95 APPENDIX 5 – BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT 101 APPENDIX 6 – GAS MAIN LAYOUT 110 DOCUMENT CONTROL Document Reference Version Date Issued Produced by Reviewed by S0596 1 13/7/15 LE & GG CW S0596 2 19/8/15 LE & GG CW S0596 3 14/9/15 LE & GG CW 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the findings of a heat mapping and masterplanning study for district energy networks in the Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council area. The areas investigated include Ebbw Vale (Rassau Industrial Estate and adjacent industrial estates and development areas), Brynmawr (Blaenant Industrial Estate and Barleyfield Industrial Estate), Tredegar (Tredegar Business Park and adjacent areas) and Abertillery (Anvil Court and adjacent areas). The tasks undertaken and results of study are outlined below. All proposals and assumptions are developed in line with the CIBSE and ADE Heat Networks: Code of Practice for the UK. Data collection and review Previous work was reviewed including the Rassau district energy network report1. A further data collection exercise was undertaken comprising the collection of key energy and building data from local authority buildings and other key stakeholders. Heat mapping / demand analysis Hourly heat demand models were produced for potential key heat load buildings/sites based on site specific details referenced against hourly ambient temperature data. The resultant heat demand profiles were then combined to assess the overall heat demands of different sized network scenarios. Identification of priority scheme and network In consultation with the client, network scenarios were selected for the most technically and financially feasible assessments. A technology assessment was conducted to identify optimum energy sources for each network scenario and phase. Gas CHP, biomass heating, biomass CHP, heat pumps, anaerobic digestion and EfW were selected for viability assessment and the associated business cases developed. Sensitivity and risk Key project risks include changes to development plans, lack of take up of heat sales and electricity private wire offer by potential key loads and disproportionate increases in energy prices. A detailed spreadsheet tool was developed to allow Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council to vary key business case parameters including connection risk fossil fuel tariffs, electricity tariffs, RHI tariffs, electricity sale prices, inflationary increases and capital costs. Planning BGCBC Policy DM4 encourages major development proposals to incorporate schemes that generate energy from renewable and low and zero carbon technologies but policy tools are employed by BGCBC to require new developments to consider district heating specifically. The potential for connection should be set out in development briefs and developers should be required/encouraged to investigate district energy as part of their proposals to support district energy plans at sites such as The Works and Rassau Industrial Estate. Engagement with developers is critical in relation to the existing network at The Works site where further connection opportunities are likely to arise from new developments in the short and medium term. Ebbw Vale (Rassau) The business cases for the prioritised phased network is shown below: Location Phase Scheme Network Estimated 25 Year Financial Case length CAPEX Payback IRR NPV Carbon BGCBC savings carbon savings Ebbw Vale 1 6 MWth 5.3km £12,082,006 11 years 9% £6,530,698 7,876 NA gas CHP tonnes 2 10 MWth 9.3km £20,434,115 11 years 9% £9,367,892 12,363 gas CHP tonnes 3 12 MWth 12.3km £26,036,358 11 years 9% £13,756,713 16,959 gas CHP tonnes The proposed network routes are shown below: 1 In 2014, Arup were funded by the Carbon Trust and Welsh Government to deliver an ‘Outline Assessment for District Energy at Rassau Industrial Estate’ report with the following agreed scope of work (see section 1.3.1). 3 Ebbw Vale – Phase 1 Ebbw Vale – Phase 2 4 Ebbw Vale – Phase 3 Although there are significant associated risks in developing a district energy network, the Rassau site potentially offers substantial benefits including improved electrical capacity, reduced carbon emissions and energy costs, reduced fuel poverty, increased energy security and the ability attract new business and retain existing businesses at the site. The project would support the economic, social and environmental principles of ‘Blaenau Gwent Energy’, BGCBC’s Smart Business Parks project and Welsh Government’s Green Growth Wales: Local Energy, Smart Living Vision and may be eligible for support from Welsh Government’s Smart Living Demonstrator Framework. Stakeholders include the key heat load businesses, BGCBC Economic Development, Regeneration and Planning departments, the Heads of the Valleys Development Corporation and the Welsh Government. There are significant associated risks particularly in relation to engaging with the Circuit of Wales development and existing businesses. BGCBC’s business case requirements and perception of these risks may make the project unviable to be taken to the feasibility stage. The economic model, risks and benefits for this project should be assessed internally by BGCBC and a decision made on whether to progress to the feasibility stage. The Works BGCBC operates a district energy scheme at ‘The Works’ site in Ebbw Vale. The energy centre currently supplies space heating and domestic hot water to a district heating network comprising Council Offices, ‘The Learning Zone’, Ebbw Vale Sports Centre, Ebbw Fawr Phase School and Gwent Archive Building. Heat is supplied by four 1.5MW gas boilers, two 499kW wood pellet boilers and a 400kWth gas CHP unit. This district energy network offers significant benefits including reduced carbon emissions and energy costs, reduced fuel poverty, increased energy security and the ability attract new business and retain existing businesses at the site. While The Works site has not been considered in any detail as part of this study, the network design is future proofed and there is capacity to serve far greater future heat 5 demands than the network currently serves. It is calculated that the network could deliver 11MW of peak heat load and it currently delivers less than 3MW. There is a significant opportunity to increase the benefit of the existing network at The Works site as there is capacity to serve far greater future heat demands. This low carbon network may provide an incentive for businesses to locate at the development sites and there will be opportunities for the network to serve future developments. There may also be an opportunity for the nearby Ysbyty Aneurin Bevan to connect to the network and this requires detailed assessment and engagement with Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. Further work is required to develop a strategy for the future development and expansion of this network. Tredegar The business case for the prioritised network is shown below: Location Phase Scheme Network Estimated 25 Year Financial Case length CAPEX Payback IRR NPV Carbon BGCBC savings carbon savings Tredegar 1 600 kWth 500m £1,223,130 14 years 7% £215,117 822 17 tonnes gas CHP tonnes The proposed network route is shown below: There is a marginal business case for a network at this site and there are a number of risks associated with the nature and timing of the development of the employment site. It is unlikely that this project can be progressed without significant developments at the Business Park. The Tai Calon Housing Association complex could provide a key anchor load and engagement with this stakeholder is essential if the project is to be progressed. 6 When details emerge on the development of the employment land, the economic model for this project should be further investigated. BGCBC should then make a decision on whether to progress this project. Abertillery The business case for the prioritised network is shown below: Location Phase Scheme Network Estimated 25 Year Financial Case length CAPEX Payback IRR NPV Carbon BGCBC savings carbon savings Abertillery 1 500 kWth 750m £1,298,359 18 years 3% -£234,698 564 417 gas CHP tonnes tonnes The proposed network route is shown below: This network is unlikely to be financially feasible as the low heat density adversely affects the business case. However, the connection risks associated with this project are lower as the key anchor loads are all local authority operated buildings. Brynmawr Due to low heat demands and densities and high risks, the network and scheme scenarios investigated for the Brynmawr area were deemed unfeasible. 7 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Heat mapping and masterplanning from Rassau Industrial Estate District Energy Study . 11 Figure 2:

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