Dismantling the West: Russia's Atlantic Agenda

DISMANTLING THE WEST Also by Janusz Bugajski Atlantic Bridges: America’s New European Allies (with Ilona Teleki) Cold Peace: Russia’s New Imperialism Political Parties of Eastern Europe: A Guide to Politics in the Post-Communist Era Ethnic Politics in Eastern Europe: A Guide to Nationality Policies, Organizations, and Parties Nations in Turmoil: Conflict and Cooperation in Eastern Europe East European Fault Lines: Dissent, Opposition, and Social Activism Czechoslovakia: Charter 77’s Decade of Dissent Related Titles from Potomac Books, Inc. Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran Since the Fall of the Shah —John W. Parker Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the End of Revolution, Updated Edition —Peter Baker and Susan Glasser Russia and Postmodern Deterrence: Military Power and Its Challenges for Security —Stephen J. Cimbala and Peter Jacob Rainow DISMANTLING THE WEST Russia’s Atlantic Agenda JANUSZ BUGAJSKI Potomac Books, Inc. Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2009 by Janusz Bugajski Published in the United States by Potomac Books, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bugajski, Janusz, 1954– Dismantling the West : Russia’s Atlantic agenda / Janusz Bugajski. — 1st ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-59797-210-9 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—Western countries. 2. Western countries— Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 3. Russia (Federation)—Strategic aspects. 4. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—Europe. 5. Europe—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 6. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—United States. 7. United States—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) I. Title. D2025.5.R8B84 2009 327.470182’1—dc22 2009015026 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper that meets the American National Standards Institute Z39-48 Standard. Potomac Books, Inc. 22841 Quicksilver Drive Dulles, Virginia 20166 First Edition 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To the kids: Simona, Petar, and Nevena Contents Introduction: Moscow’s Challenge 1 1 Russia’s Revival 7 2 Confronting the United States 29 3 Weakening the Alliance 55 4 Dominating Europe: Former Empire 79 5 Dividing Europe: European Union 101 6 Energy as Strategy 121 7 Business as Policy 147 8 Conclusions: Revitalizing the West 175 Postscript 189 Acknowledgments 195 Notes 197 Selected Bibliography 233 Index 237 About the Author 257 Russia’s European Energy Web Source: Janusz Bugajski, Expanding Eurasia: Russia’s European Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: CSIS Press, 2008); map created by Besian Bocka. Used with permission. Russia’s European Ambitions: Establishing Influence Zones Source: Janusz Bugajski, Expanding Eurasia: Russia’s European Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: CSIS Press, 2008); map created by Besian Bocka. Used with permission. Introduction: Moscow’s Challenge Moscow’s overarching goal toward the Western world is to reverse the global predominance of the United States by transforming “unipolarity” into “multi- polarity” in which Russia exerts increasing international leverage and political influence. To achieve this long-range policy objective, the Kremlin is intent on expanding the Eurasian space in which Russia is the dominant political player and causing the Western or Euro-Atlantic zone of security to become increasingly fractured and neutralized. In this strategic struggle, “Eurasianism” for Moscow involves two interconnected approaches: transforming Europe into an appendage of the Russian sphere of influence and debilitating Euro-Atlanticism by undercutting Europe’s connections with the United States. In pursuit of its long-range objectives, the Kremlin employs a number of interlinked strategies. The most significant involvediscrediting the West, in which Russia is depicted as the stalwart bastion against America’s neo-imperialism; international posturing, whereby Moscow poses as a defender of international law, national independence, and political stability; expanding spheres of influence, through which Russia’s regime defines its national interests at the expense of its neighbors; dividing and dominating, where Moscow fosters international divisions to disrupt the emergence of a unified policy and exposes individual states to intense pressures; promoting political indispensability, in which Russia poses as an essential partner in global security issues and engages in strategic blackmail by threatening to terminate its assistance; neutralizing through dependence, in which Moscow escalates Europe’s energy dependence to mute any challenges to its expansionist policies; and playing security chess, whereby Russia manufactures security disputes in order to gain advantages vis-à-vis other security questions. Within the context of these strategies, Russia deploys a range of weaponry to curtail the further expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 1 2 DISMANTLING THE WEST (NATO)–European Union (EU) sphere and to weaken the coherence and effective- ness of Atlanticism. These include divisive diplomacy, political subversion, in- formational warfare, institutional manipulation, and military threats. A primary instrument is energy entrapment, whereby Russia pursues a monopolistic position as Europe’s energy supplier and converts energy dependence into intergovernmental influence. Moscow is also gaining major economic inroads in Europe through targeted investments and the purchase of strategic assets that enable it to entice politicians and leverage major businesses to support Russia’s broader interests. The European Union occupies a pivotal position in Russia’s strategy, as it can either strengthen or weaken the Kremlin’s approach toward the West. Russian leaders view a unified EU foreign policy, synchronized with Washington, that undercuts Russia’s aspirations as a threat to their ambitions. Alternatively, EU institutions or specific member states can help buttress Russia’s policies. The absence of a common EU strategy toward Russia, accompanied by division and indecision in both the Union and the NATO alliance, has several negative consequences for Western interests. First, it enables Moscow to fracture the EU by bilateralizing or nationalizing relations with individual states and providing diplomatic and economic incentives to some capitals while exerting political pressure on others. Second, EU diverg- ence generates disputes over the approach of specific member states toward Russia and undermines the development of a common EU and NATO foreign and security policy on a broad range of issues. Third, European disunity and an overly accommodating approach toward Moscow, exhibited by some Western European capitals, further restricts EU and NATO enlargement eastward. This can unsettle the reformist prospects of aspirant states in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. And fourth, EU divisions and political acquiescence toward Moscow may undermine relations with the United States and disable the pursuit of a joint Western strategy. The argument posited by some analysts that Russia is too weak to implement its strategies and achieve its objectives can be answered through three observations with regard to growing capabilities, relative strength, and persistent divisions among adversaries. First, the Russian state has been significantly centralized and strengthened under the Putin presidency, while the Kremlin has steadily expanded its strategic objectives and sharpened its economic, political, diplomatic, and military tools. Second, Russia is substantially stronger than each of its postcommunist neighbors. The relative weakness of the former Soviet republics should be measured by not only their military capabilities but also their dependence on Russian energy and trade and their vulnerability to various forms of influence and pressure from Moscow. INTRODUCTION: MOSCOW’S CHALLENGE 3 And third, Russia relies on strategic divisions between the Western powers and their inability to devise a single coherent policy approach toward Moscow. This enables Russia’s leaders to more effectively pursue their agenda by exploit- ing weaknesses and fractures among their adversaries and partners. This does not mean that all of Russia’s ambitions can be steadily achieved. Indeed, the Kremlin has confronted some notable setbacks to its Eurasian agenda, such as the enlargement of NATO and the democratic upheavals in Ukraine and Georgia. Nonetheless, Moscow views these as temporary retreats rather than as permanent strategic defeats. This book offers a detailed assessment of Russia’s ambitions to undermine Western multinational institutions and to dismantle common Western interests by examining several components of the international strategy Moscow developed under Putinism. Chapter 1 outlines Russia’s development under Putinism and describes how the rebuilding of state power coincided with the expansion of state interests. A primary purpose of political centralization was to transform Russia into a global power and a counterpoint to the United States and the transatlantic alliance. The political structure established under Putinism can be understood as “authoritarian statism,” a system controlled by a narrow clique of security officials who fused their political ambitions, economic interests, and imperial aspirations. For the Putinist post-KGB network, profit and politics intersected in a strategic

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