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[email protected] www.iep.ru RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS 09’2012 MONTHLY BULLETIN: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IN SEPTEMBER 2012: PRELIMINARY DATA AND MAJOR TRENDS 2 THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RESULTS OF SEPTEMBER 2012 (S.Zhavoronkov) 6 INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY (N.Luksha) 11 FINANCIAL MARKETS (N.Burkova, E.Khudkova) 15 REAL ECONOMY: TRENDS AND FACTORS (O.Izryadnova) 21 RUSSIAN INDUSTRY IN AUGUST 2012 (S.Tsukhlo) 24 INVESTMENTS IN REAL ECONOMY SECTOR (O.Izryadnova) 27 FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY (E.ILukhina) 32 THE FOREIGN TRADE (N.Volovik, K.kharina) 36 STATE BUDGET (T.Tishchenko) 39 RUSSIAN BANKING SECTOR (M.Khromov) 43 REAL ESTATE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (G.Zadonsky) 46 THE OIL AND GAS SECTION (Yu.Bobylev) 52 MIGRATION PROCESS (L.Karachurina, NRU HSE) 56 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC LEGISLATION (I.Tolmacheva) 60 REVIEW OF THE MEETINGS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RF IN SEPTEMBER 2012 (M.Goldin) 62 AN OVERVIEW OF NORMATIVE DOCUMENT ON TAXATION ISSUES IN AUGUST–SEPTEMBER 2012 64 (L.Anisimova) CHANGES IN THE REGULATORY BASE OF THE BUDGETARY PROCESS (M.Goldin) 71 RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IN SEPTEMBER 2012: PRELIMINARY DATA AND MAJOR TRENDS The Political Background: Pensions in the Cross-Hairs The beginning of the autumn was marked by an onset of fundamental conflicts in the ranks of the new Russian government and by some fresh signs of political reaction fomented in the State Duma by United Russia deputies.