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Predicting Plant Invasions Following China's Water Diversion Project

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Predicting Plant Invasions Following China's Water Diversion Project Article pubs.acs.org/est Predicting Plant Invasions Following China’s Water Diversion Project † § ‡ ∥ ⊥ # # § Dasheng Liu,*, , Rui Wang, Doria R. Gordon, , Xihua Sun, Lu Chen, and Yanwen Wang † Shandong Institute of Environmental Science, Lishan Lu 50, Jinan 250013, China ‡ State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Yuanmingyuan West Road 2, Beijing 100193, China § Ecological Society of Shandong, Zhijinshi Jie 12, Jinan 250012, China ∥ Environmental Defense Fund, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20009, United States ⊥ Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, United States # College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Wenhua Dong Lu 88, Jinan 250014, China ABSTRACT: China’s South to North Water Diversion (SNWD) project connects portions of the Yangtze River in the south to the Yellow River system in the north, overcoming biogeographic barriers to water movement. The diversion will supply potable water to over 110 million people and provide multiple other socioeconomic benefits. However, an inadver- tent negative impact of this connection includes creation of conduits for species invasions. Alligator weed (Alternanthera philoxeroides), water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes) are the only aquatic plant species on China’s shortlists for special control. These species are mainly invasive in the Yangtze River basin. If these species are able to invade the SNWD and further spread via the SNWD, they have the potential to alter water supply, including water quantity and quality, as well as local ecology and agriculture, threatening the goals of the diversion. Understanding the full potential for these species to invade northern China is critical to early management decisions to avoid costly negative impacts. We used Maxent modeling to evaluate the probability that each of these species might become invasive in the receiving water regions. The models predict that all three species will be able to expand their ranges northward, with alligator weed and water hyacinth having the greatest potential for range expansion. These results suggest the need for prevention, monitoring, and management strategies for these species to reduce the risk and costs of impacts. ■ INTRODUCTION improvements, SNWD may also help reduce the rate of land 17 Biological invasions are causing global environmental and subsidence in Beijing, which has been attributed to ground- 1 water withdrawals. The eastern and middle routes of SNWD economic damage, including threats to global biodiversity 16,18 through alteration of the structure and function of ecosystems have been in use since December 2013 and December 2014, and ecological interactions that have developed over evolu- respectively, while the western route is still being planned. 2−7 Human-made waterways have become conduits for species tionary time scales. Multiple studies have demonstrated 13,14,19 the cost-effectiveness of early prevention and management of invasions in multiple locations. The SNWD establishes − fl biological invasions.8 10 Preemptively predicting where bio- water ows between historically biogeographically independent river basins. As a result, aquatic invaders may spread passively, logical invasions may occur is crucial to developing successful 20−22 23 monitoring programs and management strategies. carried by the water via hydrochory, through the SNWD Meeting water supply needs is an increasing concern if environmental conditions in the north are suitable. Currently, 11 many more non-native plant species have invaded southern than throughout the world. One common response to enhance 24−27 navigation and access to water is through diversion of waterways northern China. However, while multiple risks associated − 28,29 to areas of need.12 14 The South to North Water Diversion with the SNWD have received attention, risk assessment of (SNWD) in China is one such project (Figure 1). SNWD consists biological invasions has not. of eastern, middle, and western routes designed to alleviate water Three non-native aquatic plants, alligator weed (Alternan- supply problems in northern China by transferring water from the thera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb.), water hyacinth (Eichhornia lower, middle, and upper reaches of the Yangtze River in southern crassipes (Mart.) Solms), and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes L.), China.15 SNWD is intended to supply potable water to 110 million people, including 7 million who have suffered from consuming Received: November 4, 2016 high-fluorine and brackish water.16 Moreover, the ground- Revised: December 8, 2016 water overdraft situation in northern China will gradually be Accepted: January 6, 2017 alleviated as a result of this project.16 In addition to water supply Published: January 6, 2017 © 2017 American Chemical Society 1450 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b05577 Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 51, 1450−1457 Environmental Science & Technology Article Figure 1. Eastern and middle routes for SNWD in China. The eastern route transfers water from Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province in the lower reach of the Yangtze River. The middle route diverts water from the Danjiangkou reservoir on the Hanjiang River in the Hubei Province which is the tributary of the middle reach of Yangtze River; its second stage will allow the transfers of water directly in the middle reach of the Yangtze River. Jinan, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, and Wuhan are the capital cities of the Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Henan, and Hubei Provinces, respectively. are of particular concern. These species are the only aquatic areas in northern China, the damage consequences are likely to plants included on China’s first (alligator weed and water be of the same magnitude as seen to southern China and other hyacinth)30 and second (water lettuce)31 shortlists of invasive areas of the introduced ranges around the world. species requiring special control. All three species have been Because the species have demonstrated tolerance to cold − cultivated widely for forage in southern China.32 34 This temperatures elsewhere in the invaded range, they may survive cultivation, their floating habit, and clonal reproduction are and grow in higher latitudes.47 This potential has already been the sources of their extensive distribution in the region. realized for alligator weed, which has now invaded Shandong The development of dense vegetation mats on water bodies Province, northern China,48,49 a range expansion not predicted impairs navigation and water flow, causes flooding, alters water by earlier work.50 Understanding the full potential for these − quality and quantity, and threatens native biodiversity.35 40 species to invade northern China’s waterways is critical to early In southern China, this damage by alligator weed and water management decisions to avoid costly negative impacts. hyacinth is reported to annually cost 600 million RMB (US$90 Ecological niche modeling has been used to evaluate the − million) and 10 billion RMB (US$1.5 billion), respectively.41,42 potential habitat for species in a new location.51 55 We used the For the former species, losses on agricultural lands represent a maximum entropy (Maxent) model to predict the potential significant portion of these costs.43,44 These species also have a northern distributions of the three invaders. Maxent has been consistent history of becoming invasive in many regions of demonstrated to have greater precision than other niche the world45 and are widely predicted to become invasive in new modeling approaches53 and has been used for habitat suitability habitats.46 If the species invade the expansive receiving water projections for other invasive species.54,55 1451 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b05577 Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 51, 1450−1457 Environmental Science & Technology Article ■ MATERIALS AND METHODS other species, water lettuce has become a problematic invader and is now on the second shortlist of invasive species requiring South to North Water Diversion. In the eastern plains of special control in China.31 China, the largest rivers flow from west to east. The Yangtze Species Distribution Data Source. The occurrence data River is the longest river, followed by the Yellow River (Figure 1). for modeling species distribution should include both the The Huai River - Qinling Mountains line is generally regarded as geographic distribution and the breadth of environmental the dividing line between northern China and southern China, gradients occupied by the species (e.g., cover the full range of and it also approximates 0 °C degree January mean temperature 56,57 environments tolerated by the species). We used native and isotherm and 800 mm precipitation isohyet. The SNWD introduced range occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity eastern route transfers water from Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province in fl Information Facility (GBIF; http://data.gbif.org/), Chinese the lower reach of the Yangtze River. One branch ows north- Virtual Herbarium databases (http://www.cvh.ac.cn/), and ward through the Shandong and Hebei Provinces to Tianjin, fl 15,58 China Specimen Resources Sharing Platform for Education while another ows through the eastern part of Shandong. (http://mnh.scu.edu.cn), for this analysis (Figure 2). Additional The SNWD middle route diverts water from the Danjiangkou records were obtained from the Herbarium of National Taiwan reservoir on the Hanjiang River in the Hubei Province which
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