Magzter.com www.worldfocus.in ISSN 2230-8458 U.S. Library of Congress No. 80910345 451 A Premier Indo-Centric Foreign Affairs Journal Since 1980 PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL JULY 2017

Special Edition UnrSpecialesolv Editioned Question & Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Shifting Lines, Drifting Borders: The Story of India’s Border Conflicts British India's Unfinished Agenda Growing Chinese Influence in Pakistan One Belt One Road (OBOR) -Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Will Modi & Sharif be able to do anything concrete & Will they take this Kashmir issue to a logical conclusion?

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EDITORIAL For the first time in 70 years India is looking at what is good for the country without fear of upsetting anyone. Today the Modi government has shown a method in the vision of trade of not participating in the One Belt One Road Summit in Beijing on a principled stand. This whole exercise by China is to see that the

PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL entire region is free from being the hotbed of terrorism, in return Volume XXXVIII Number 7 July 2017 the entire area is getting infrastructure connectivity. Pakistan border regions and the Central Asia region need G . Kishore Babu funds for development China by entering the area and developing Editor it with the Army standing by to get work done is giving Pakistan Bhabani Dikshit no reason to Nurture terrorism. is getting Managing Editor development done in the region, by the Chinese to whom neither Stuti S. Mandala his army nor anyone else can say anything. He too by this will Associate Editor see Pakistan turning a new leaf in its growth story. The army will soon stop calling the shorts once the China- Pakistan WORLD FOCUS takes up every month one international issue and gives an analysis of its various Economic Corridor is done. With China it is a perception issue, aspects by persons well known for their for India if the conditions are right can always join the Belt and specialisation in the subject. The issues covered are topical or near topical, but of an abiding interest. Road Initiative. India by working with and Isreal will be The analysis is simple enough to interest even an the Infrastructure builder of all the projects with a win-win initiate to world affairs, but without sacrificing depth. The aim is to present an Indocentric view on a relationship with both Japan and Israel. This is an equal alliance particular issue currently facing the world. of brain, power and a will to go forward. Japan and Israel have Opinions expressed in the articles are personal views the technology we need in all fields. They get a good market for of the author and in no way reflect the opinion of World Focus. The author is solely responsible for their products whether it is infrastructure hardware or electronic the contents in his/ her article and the World Focus hardware or Nuclear know how. With Japan India will soon takes no responsibility in this regard. The Contents of this magazine cannot be reproduced launch the development of Asia and Africa in the upcoming in any form with out prior permission from World Annual meeting of African Development Bank. To be held at Focus. Any legal issues pertaining to World Focus will be settled in NCT region of Delhi only. Ahmadabad this will be India’s answer to China’s OBOR. This Unsolicited articles will not be returned or is the biggest success of the Modi Foreign policy initiatives. acknowledged. World Focus reserves the right to For the first time the Russians are being told that getting business edit articles for brevity and clarity before publication. in the civil nuclear programme development in developing the Edited, Owned, Published and Printed by G. Kishore Babu from B-49 (Ground Floor), Joshi Colony, I.P. Kundankulam 5 and 6 reactors are linked to Indian foreign Extension, Delhi-110092 at Madhav Press, 4857/24, First Floor, Ansari Road, Dariyaganj, - 110002 policy goals. Today we are world leaders in Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR). Now we are putting up 10 reactors Total number of Pages 146, including Covers of 700MW capacity, it is a salute to Indigenous technology. Copy Right : World Focus We need Nuclear Suppliers Group membership it is said we Our Address: have told the Russians that, do what it needs to get us the World Focus membership and come back. This is braveness that Indian foreign B-49, (Ground Floor) Joshi Colony, I P Extension policy has not shown till now. All want peace and freedom from Delhi - 110092, India terrorism. Tel. / Fax : 22246905, Mobile No. 8130754555 New Delhi G. Kishore Babu Email: [email protected] July 2017 Editor Website: www.worldfocus.in 3 Pak Occupied Kashmir & India Contents

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio Anil Kamboj Inspector General (Retd)...... 5 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: Perspectives Prof. Snehalata Panda...... 14 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India Dr. SudhanshuTripathi...... 21 ‘Trilateral’ Solution to the Kashmir Issue: Not Bilateral! G. Kishore Babu...... 28 Confidence Building Measures Travel and Trade Across LOC Dr. B. Srinivas, IPS...... 30 Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta...... 36 Prognosis of Kashmir Crisis: Hobsonean Choice? Dr. Gauri Sankar Nag & Dr. Sajal Basu...... 45 Turbulence in PoK: The China Factor Dr. Netajee Abhinandan...... 51 India, PoK and CPEC: Narrowing the ‘Corridor’ of Indo-Pakistan Relations Dr. Mohor Chakraborty...... 55 Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and POK: The Challenges Ahead Dr. Saleem Ahmad & Dr. Khushbu Gupta...... 61 OBOR through POK: A Threat to India’s Foreign Policy Snehil Kacker...... 68 Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy Dr. Aparna Banerjee...... 73 Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns Dr. Prasanta Sahoo...... 80 Pak-Occupied Kashmir and India: Can China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) resolve this problem? Dr. Pitam Ghosh...... 88 The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity Pankaj Lakhera...... 95 Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Shivani Sharma...... 103 State Sponsored : Why India’s Conducted Surgical Strikes in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir? Afroz Ahmad & Jahangir Ahmad Khan...... 111 Contrasting Development: A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Parul Khatri & Charu Khatri...... 115 The China led One Belt One Road in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications for India Manisha Chaurasiya...... 122 Rehabilitation Policy: A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants Arif Hussain Malik & Toseef Ahmad Bhat...... 128 Growing Presence of China in Pak Occupied Kashmir and India’s Concerns Shobhit Kumar Jain...... 138 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: A Case of Prolonged Negligence Vijay Kumar Yadav...... 142 4 World Focus July 2017 Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio Anil Kamboj

Introduction\ they evacuated India, nothing would remain to prevent I know that most of the readers must be aware about Russian infiltration.2 the background of creation of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. But, yet I again want to bring out some of Churchill’s long-term policy required to the facts about today’s problem in that part of India, safeguard the strategic interests of the British Empire because it gives me lot of pain when almost every in India and the Indian Ocean. had come to day I read that how our brave Security Forces are be looked upon as British Empire’s most probable facing the situation in Kashmir both on the borders potential enemy.3 and as well inside. They are working day in and day out under most inhospitable situations while living Britain’s priority was defence of India’s under inhuman conditions. The paper argues that western and north-western borders, adjoining what were the circumstances and compulsions that Afghanistan and Russia. The former through Pakistan created POK, or could it be avoided. Paper would presented no problem, as Pakistan would be totally also try to find its after effects and present scenario. dependent on Britain in military matters. The latter posed a problem, as the territory was part of the Background Kashmir State, whose Hindu Maharaja, the British Background in brief as to how the British created feared, might exceed to India. They played a clever India and Pakistan must be understood before game through the Gilgit Scouts, who were British and understanding about Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, how who controlled the region. On 30th July 1947, when it was created and how wrong is Pakistan’s claim India and Pakistan were yet to become independent, over Kashmir. The British had decided on Pakistan all the British officers of the Gilgit Scouts opted to creation earlier in 1942. On 2 March, the Secretary serve Pakistan. Thus on 31st October 1947, the Gilgit of State, Amery, wrote to A. Harding that “Here is Scouts installed a provisional government. On 4th the Document as drafted by the India Committee November, Major Brown hoisted the Pakistan flag in under Attlee’s chairmanship. This was the same the lines of his command, and on 12th November, an which Linlithgow and I (Amery) had agreed upon in official styling himself as political agent arrived from July 1940.” This was the first public admission of the Pakistan and established himself in Gilgit.4 possibility of Pakistan, that is, an India divided between the Muslim and Hindu parties. Further, on The implementation of imperial strategy comprised: 5 24 March, Amery wrote to Linlithgow: “Jinnah, I a) Reinforcing defence installations on Pakistan’s should have thought, will be content to realise that he north-western borders has now got Pakistan, whether as something b) Detaching Baluchistan from India substantial or as a beginning point.”1 c) Ensuring fuel supplies for Naval vessels in the Indian Ocean, for which purpose Governor General was, thus, part of the Mountbatten had proposed to the foreign oil imperial strategy Churchill had ordered to be prepared companies operating in India to immediately on the surrender of on 5th May, d) consider two oil refineries, one each on the west 1945. It was to meet the grave apprehensions Russia and the east coasts of India was causing. Stalin had earlier told Hilter’s Foreign e) A common Governor General for India and Minister, Ribbenprop, that it was ridiculous that a few Pakistan hundred Englishmen should dominate India. Churchill f) An undivided Army under the command of a British had concurred with his Chief-of-Staff, Ismay that if Supreme Commander

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio 5 However, the imperial strategy did not take- the hilly or mountainous country, situated to eastward off. Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel did not agree of allowing of river Indus and westward of river Ravee.” The the British to arbitrarily handover to Muhammad Ali Treaty meant no more than handing over of Kashmir Jinnah the whole of Punjab and Bengal. Jinnah also to for ruling on their behalf. The British did not agree for his greed for power and status as had posted a Resident in Kashmir under whose he refused to accept common Governor General for surveillance the Maharaja ruled. The sum of Rupees India and Pakistan, and undivided Army. Churchill’s 75 lakh that Maharaja paid to the British was not a exit as Prime Minster on losing the election, Attlee, sell-out but Nazarana or a Tribute that Indian Princes his successor, lacked the courage to proceed with paid to the paramount power under Wellesley’s policy the plan. of subsidiary alliances which granted help in defence in difficult circumstances. In other words, the British Partition of India was therefore the plan of Government will give aid to Maharaja Gulab Singh in Churchill. Jinnah was its implementer. There was protecting his territories from external enemies. That absolute confidential in Churchill – Jinnah links before is what Wellesley had offered to other princes earlier. India’s independence.6 As part of his imperial strategy, Before independence, sometime in July, the Governor Churchill had even directed Jinnah’s role at the Simla General Mountbatten tried to persuade Maharaja of Conference in June-July 1945. Wavell gave the shape Kashmir to ascertain the will of the people of Kashmir to the Churchill’s plan, leading ultimately to the and the accede to the of the people’s breakup of India into Hindustan and Pakistan. It was choice. But the Maharaja invariably avoided the issue. Sardar Patel who did not allow the creation of Even during end of August Lord Ismay had gone to Princestan. During this period, the Congress leaders with instructions to advise him to hurry up and were kept in dark as most of the time they were in ascertain the will of the people. But probably Maharaja prison for nearly three years since August 1942. wanted to stay independent.7

Creation of Pok Pandit Nehru had blind faith in Sheikh If we turn pages of Indian history a bit more, in 1846, Abdullah of Kashmir. He believed that fate of with the signing of the Treaties of Lahore and Kashmir was tied with close personal interests of Amritsar, British conquest of Northern India was Pandit Nehru. He believed that only complete. Consolidation of the gains had yet to be could help in to solve the Kashmir problem. Pandit undertaken. This seemed more difficult than the Nehru also thought that Sheikh Abdullah would be military victory in Kashmir, being isolated from the his anchor in the Muslim dominated valley. He also rest of the country. The British were worried about left the fate of Dogra Hindus of , Buddhists new developments across the State’s borders with of Ladakh, ethnically different Muslims of the state Russia. The British choice for a chieftain fell on one from border areas, the Bakarwals, the Gujjars and of the Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s ablest generals, Gulab Paharis; in the hands of Sheikh Abdullah. Singh, a Dogra from Jammu. He had been granted many estates by Maharaja Ranjit Singh including Surprisingly, Pandit Nehru had even told Jammu for conquering many hostile regions, among Kashmiri pandits at the annual session of the National them Ladakh and Kashmir and therefore had been Conference at in 1945, that if non-Muslims elevated to the status of a Raja by the Maharaja. wanted to live in Kashmir, they should join the National The British found their interests bound up together Conference of Abdullah. During May 1946, Nehru with Raja Gulab Singh. By the way of reward, the supported Abdullah’s Quit Kashmir movement, an British promoted him to the Throne in exchange of imitation of Mahatma Gandhi’s Quit India movement Seventy-Five Lakh Rupees. It was an Nazarana of 1942. This was abusive and mischievous.8 Actually, which Sheikh Abdullah too paid to Maharaja Hari there was no comparison between Quit Kashmir Singh, on his release from prison in 1947. As per Times agitation and Quit India movement. The Maharaja of of India Archives 1886, “The British Government Kashmir, a Dogra, was a son of the state and it was transfers and makes over for ever, in independent absurd to have asked him to quit Kashmir. possession, to Maharaja Gulab Singh and his heirs all

6 World Focus July 2017 During Quit Kashmir agitation, Abdullah had been The Maharaja’s forces could not match them. There arrested but Pandit Nehru got him released through was massacre all over. The Government of North Sardar Patel’s mediation with Maharaja. On coming West Frontier Province had pushed Mahsuds and out of the prison, Sheikh Abdullah, called upon the Wazirs into the Jhelum Valley. It was not until the Maharaja and offered him a Nazarana, as a token of 24th October that reliable information had been his loyalty and assured the Maharaja of Kashmir his received of tribal incursion, and detailed report was and his party’s loyalty and support towards His received only on the 25th. Thus, the decision to send Highness. After his resumption of power, Sheikh troops had not been taken until 26th October, by which Abdullah forgot all the promises he made to the date the Maharaja had announced his intension of Maharaja and asked him to quit the valley and leave acceding to India. On 26th Pandit Nehru informed the Kashmiris alone to decide their future by PM of Pakistan Liaquat Ali Khan about this and his themselves. In September 1947, despite knowing fully decision of sending Indian troops to Kashmir. During well the communal mindset of Sheikh Mohammad beginning of November people of woke up Abdullah, Pandit Nehru patronised him and insisted to find that Pakistan backed tribal raiders were just on he be made the Prime Minister before the about 4 Km from the city of Srinagar, amassing for accession which was not acceptable to the Maharaja. their final assault. confident of capture of Srinagar, Jinnah was at Abbotabad expecting to ride in triumph India and Pakistan got their Independence into Kashmir.9 on 15 August and 14 August 1947 respectively. Sheikh Abdullah never lost an opportunity to repeat the myth It was a critical moment for Kashmir when that the British Empire had sold Kashmir to Maharaja Sardar Patel landed at Srinagar on 4th November Gulab Singh. He would always tell wrong things about 1947 along with the Defence Minister Baldev Singh. the Maharaja to the Kashmiri Muslims. He used to After getting a detailed briefing from the Brigade tell that they were the slaves of from Jammu Commander and other leaders there, Sardar Patel and that the Maharaja (son of Maharaja immediately on returning to Delhi, he briefed Pandit Gulab Singh) was not a son of the soil, and had no Nehru the Indian Prime Minister, and both agreed to right to rule over them. Thus, the seeds of hatred immediately send troops to Kashmir including Artillery between the Muslims and other religions of Kashmir units. On reaching Srinagar, these Indian troops started were sown. Sheikh Abdullah therefore, demanded pushing back the Tribal raiders sent by Pakistan. Had of Maharaja to leave Jammu and Kashmir with bag it not been for the , Srinagar would have and baggage. This was revival of his ‘Quit Kashmir’ been looted and burnt to the ground. demand of 1946. He succeeded in this with support from Pandit Nehru. This move was unconstitutional Later on 24th July 1969, in a letter to Balraj because: Krishna, General Sir , C-in C, Indian (i) The Indian Independence Act of the , wrote that his Commander-in-Chief General Parliament, under which Britain had transferred Sir Rob Lockhart, before Maharaja had acceded to power and Pakistan, had also given the Indian Princes India, had received information from the Governor the right to accede to India or Pakistan, or remain of North West Frontier Province and his government independent to join the ‘Third Dominion’ the British were encouraging raiders to enter Kashmir and was wanted to create. giving them transport and other facilities. He further (ii) India’s presence in the was only informed that Jinnah’s attitude was indicated when after the Maharaja acceded to India. It would not he ordered General Gracey, C-in-C of Pakistan Army, have been possible in its absence. Abdullah refused to send a Brigade of Pakistani regular troops into to admit it. Kashmir to catch up with the raiders. General Gracey (iii) Maharaja was entitled to be treated on par with reported these orders to Field Marshal Sir Claude other Princes. Auchinleck with the result he met Jinnah and had these orders cancelled. At one point of time Sardar Sometime during latter half of October 1947, Patel was quite in favour of partition but against the Pakistan aided Tribal incursion started in Kashmir. plebiscite anywhere. To him possible partition seemed

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio 7 to be for those parts of the State that is, north of river Mountbatten had specially flown to Lahore on 1st Jhelum and west of river to go to Pakistan, November 1947 to make an offer to Jinnah. He was rest to India. Sardar Patel was of the opinion the not accompanied by any Indian leader. Jinnah out new Frontiers should be easily seen and recognised rightly rejected the offer of Mountbatten and objected both on the ground and on the maps. Sometime during strongly to plebiscite.13 Yet Mountbatten forced Nehru February 1948. Indian Prime Minister Pandit Nehru to honour his offer of plebiscite to Jinnah. called C-in-C of Indian Army and showed some marked maps portraying a possible division of During the discussion on 1st November of Kashmir as between India and Pakistan. But nothing Governor General Mountbatten with Jinnah of came out of that meeting as Kashmir Deputy Prime Pakistan, Jinnah described the accession of Kashmir Minister Bakshi Gulam Mohd did not want Titwahl to with India as not bonafide one since it rested on ‘fraud go to Pakistan.10 and violence’ and would never be accepted by Pakistan. Mountbatten told him that the accession Sometime during March 1948 General was perfectly legal and valid. He was further informed Gracey C-in-C Pakistan Army informed Indian C-in- by the Governor General that the Maharaja was most C General Roy Bucher that he thought cease- fire in anxious to remain independent, but the terror and Kashmir might be arranged. General Bucher informed violence from the tribal raiders for which Pakistan Pandit Nehru. General Gracey spoke with his PM. A was responsible made him accede to India to obtain cease-fire did occur but it could not be sustained as help against the invaders. Jinnah repeatedly Pakistan Prime Minister wished that Pandit Nehru to emphasised that it was India who had committed this treat or talk with the Government established in violence by sending Indian troops into Srinagar. He Pakistan Occupied Kashmir which they called as even said that the Kashmir Government and the Azad Government (or Azad Kashmir). This was not Congress were responsible for the violence and the possible as India did not recognise any such massacre in Kashmir. Lord Ismay had suggested that government. The fighting began again and the initiative main thing was to stop fighting immediately and asked taken by India was lost. Accordingly, General Roy President Jinnah how he had proposed to do so. wrote back to his counterpart “It is sad that your President replied that both sides should withdraw Prime Minister could not find an approach to the simultaneously at once. When asked how the Governor here.”11 tribesmen were to be called off, he said all he had to do was to give them an order to come out and warm On 10th August 1948, General Sir Roy them if they did not comply, he would send large Bucher, C-in-C Indian Army, had written to his forces along their line of communication. It was a daughter, Elizabeth, that elements of Pakistan Regular matter of great astonishment the amount of control Army were taking part in fighting in Kashmir. Those Jinnah had over the raiders. In May 1946, the Cabinet troops were supported by Artillery.12 Mission plan virtually granted Jinnah his Pakistan in Groups B and C; Punjab, the NWFP, and Sind in A war between India and Pakistan was Group B; Bengal and Assam in Group C. To this plan neither in the interest of Mountbatten nor Britain’s. Congress did not agree and thus shuttered the dreams Both had big hand in Pakistan’s creation and they of Jinnah. A frustrated Jinnah called on the Muslims, wanted its stability to keep alive balance of power in on 30th July 1946, to launch ‘Direct Action’ in his the sub-continent. Mountbatten had warned Jinnah declaration, “This day we bid good bye to of the dangers he faced, during his meeting in Lahore constitutional methods. Today we have also forged a on 1st November 1947, that war was very harmful pistol and we are in a position to use it”. This was for India, but would be completely disastrous for Jinnah’s psycho / thinking and was determined to grab Pakistan and himself. Mountbatten further told that maximum whatever came his way, and this what he he had no powers to act on his own. Yet he did inform did in Kashmir.14 that he had supported Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru in two steps that he took, firstly, offer plebiscite in Mountbatten’s forcing Jawaharlal Nehru to Kashmir, and reference of Kashmir to UNO. refer Kashmir to the Organisation

8 World Focus July 2017 early in January 1948 was far more serious than his plebiscite in Kashmir both at home and abroad, thus offer of plebiscite to Jinnah. It forced India into sowing a seed of doubt in the mind of common international politics, making a solution far more Kashmiri who had fought the Pak aggression complex and difficult. However, Sardar Vallabhbhai voluntarily alongside the Indian Army. Nehru kept Patel was not in favour of this. He said that we should his eyes closed to the machinations of Sheikh Abdullah never have gone to the United Nations Organisation. who had mastered the art of stoking Kashmiri It has not only prolonged the dispute but, the merits sentiments on communal lines and speak in different of our case have been completely lost in the tone and language in Delhi & Jammu. In his broadcast interaction of power politics. At that stage, even US to the nation over All India Radio on 2nd November and some other powers would have also gone against 1947, Pandit Nehru said, “We are anxious not to India. UNO under the influence of Anglo-American finalise anything in a moment of crisis and without axis passed a resolution under Chapter 6 of the UN the fullest opportunity to be given to the people of Charter (which is non-enforceable) and failed to Kashmir to have their say. It is for them ultimately to ensure that Pakistan vacates the occupied territories decide, and let me make it clear that it has been our of J&K. policy that where there is a dispute about the accession of a state to either Dominion, the accession Later even Nehru admitted that Kashmir must be made by the people of that state. It is in issue had given India a great deal of problem. Jinnah accordance with this policy that we have added a had great objections on plebiscite as feared that the proviso to the Instrument of Accession of Kashmir.” presence of Indian forces and Sheikh Abdullah would This statement of Nehru was against the spirit and influence the elections. Even in the presence of UNO content of Indian Independence Act 1947 which gave in free and fair atmosphere he would not agree. The absolute power of decision to the ruler and not the main reason was that Pakistan was at an advantage people of the state. If Pandit Nehru did not recognise through its raiders. the 1947 Act then why did he and the Congress party agree to the partition of the country? He also A ceasefire which was kept closely guarded conceded to the insistence of Sheikh and his four secret was ordered. Even the Army Commanders member team to not to join the Constituent Assembly engaged in Kashmir operations at that time were kept of India but to negotiate a special status for the status in the dark. That was not so with Pakistan Army from outside, a move which was strongly objected Commanders who having been briefed moved up their by Babasaheb Ambedkar , Sardar Patel and host of troops to occupy some of the more strategic heights all other nationalist leaders. This led to inclusion of vacated during extreme cold. Haji Peer was one such Article 370 in the Constitution. Nehru was also commanding peek of great strategic value linking instrumental in adding Article 35A to the Constitution Punch and Pakistan. When the Indian Army was well through a Presidential Ordinance. Pandit Nehru did poised to force the Pak Army to withdraw and liberate not support the Praja Parishad movement in Jammu the entire state, Nehru once again agreed to a which was launched against the special status of the unilateral ceasefire. As per General SPP Thorat’s state. This resulted in widening the rift between the complaint “Our forces might have succeeded in two regions of the state.15 Instead of keeping both evicting the invaders, if Prime Minister had not held regions together to fight for getting back the Kashmir them in check and later ordered the ceasefire.” territory held by Pakistan, a divide has been created Obviously, there must have been a great pressure on in the two regions. Our previous governments have Pandit Nehru from the Governor General failed in this regard. Mountbatten. Thus, the territory acceded by the Maharaja to the Indian Dominion was divided into Turning Point two parts. India also lost the control of the strategic Firstly,in the normal democratic process, Sardar Patel Gilgit. ought to have become India’s first Prime Minister bur for Mahatma Gandhi’s intervention in proposing On the other side, Pandit Nehru kept Pandit Nehru’s exclusive name for President ship of questioning the state’s accession and referring to Congress at the working in November 1946. This

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio 9 was although 12 out of 15 Pradesh Congress Pakistan over Gilgit-Baltistan, was signed between committees had supported Sardar Patel. Mahatma the President of Azad Kashmir, the Muslim Gandhi’s intervention tilted the scales in favour of Conference and a minister without portfolio from Pandit Nehru. By virtue of that Pandit Nehru became Pakistan. Even though there was no formal merger the first Prime Minister. between AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), the fate of the latter was decided by Prime Minister AJK and Secondly, in December 1947, Prime Minister government of Pakistan with no local representative took away Kashmir from Sardar Patel’s charge and participating in the matter. Over the years Pakistan placed it under the charge of Gopalaswami Ayyangar. has tried assiduously to maintain that PoK and GB Such an affront had hurt Patel deeply. Had these are two separate entities. There is no mention of GB two things not happened, today story of POK would as a part of Pakistan in the various constitutions of have been different. Pakistan, be it the 1956, 1962, 1972 or the 1973 constitution. Even the Sino-Pak Agreement of 1963 The Pakistan Occupied Kashmir states in Article VI that “after the settlement of When India gained independence in August 1947, the Kashmir by India and Pakistan, the sovereign state of Jammu and Kashmir had an area of 222,236 authority will reopen negotiations with the People’s sq. km. Since then, due to conflict and aggression, Republic of China...” Thus both Pakistan and China Pakistan occupies about 78,114 sq. km and China admit that presently they do not exercise sovereignty about 42,685 sq. km, including 5,180 sq. km illegally over GB till a final settlement is reached.16 ceded by Pakistan to China. About 101,437 sq. km remains with India. Thus, three states are now in The Government of Pakistan announced the contention in Kashmir, with China denying strenuously Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance that Aksai Chin, the area that it occupies, was ever a Order on 29 August 2009, which reversed the part of Kashmir. The Pakistan Occupied Kashmir nomenclature of the Northern Areas to the original (POK) comprises the so-called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. The order has been widely criticized Gilgit-Baltistan (earlier named as Northern Areas) as it failed to address the basic questions of the rights and has remained an amorphous entity for six decades of the people and the critical issue of provincial now. The Trans Karakoram Tract, comprising autonomy. The order introduced elements that brought Shaksgam from Baltistan and Raskam from Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan closer to the structure in AJK in spirit which Pakistan ceded to China in 1963, is also a part and form but with no impact, as the strings of power of POK. China promised to assist Pakistan in building were placed with the Government of Pakistan. The the Karakoram Highway as a payoff. Pakistan- order was designed to secure increasing Chinese occupied Kashmir (POK) historically belonged to the interest in POK. The development works in POK erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. Soon are heavily dependent on Chinese investments. after the partition of India in 1947, Maharaja Hari However, the order was rejected by the political Singh of Jammu and Kashmir signed the Instrument groups in Gilgit-Baltistan, the pro-independence of Accession, thereby acceding to the Indian Union. groups, and the pro-Indian groups. Hence, POK is legitimately an inherent part of India. This territory has been under Pakistan’s unlawful Though situated near the two fastest growing control ever since the Pakistan Army orchestrated economies of the world, but remains extremely the tribal invasion of the territory in October 1947. backward.

The so-called Azad Kashmir (AJK) is The General Scenerio in PoK governed under the Azad Kashmir Interim Constitution During the recent past, the have seized power Act passed in 1974. Even though AJK has a President, in some parts of Pakistan. The Taliban would attempt Prime minister, and a council, the governing structure to gain strategic depth in this strategically located is totally powerless and dependent on the Pakistani region. The presence of Afghans in POK would establishment for the smallest issue at hand. The further facilitate the Taliban interests, enabling the , which governs the rule of militants to amalgamate with the local Afghans and

10 World Focus July 2017 carry on dubious activities under a suitable establishment has brutally crushed political unrest in camouflage. The Government of Pakistan would find POK in the past. an outsourced option to contrive cross-border terrorism in India, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. The War on Terror shoved the Afghan Taliban into Pakistan. The Taliban since then has POK has for long provided safe-haven to gained ground in Pakistan and would benefit greatly home-grown terrorists of Pakistan – both those by gaining a stronghold in POK. The is operating in Kashmir Valley and those having close fighting Al Qaeda and Taliban on Pakistani soil in links with al Qaeda and Taliban. The LeT operates several ways – providing military aid, drone attacks, freely in the area as Jamaat ud-Dawa (JuD). People and the like. If these groups spread bases in POK, in POK have faced neglect from the Pakistan the US would be compelled to expand its target areas government for decades and they look up to these and this could lead to a substantial US military groups for help. JuD played a significant role in the presence in POK. China is intently strengthening its relief and rehabilitation work after the October 2005 ground in POK, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan with pools earthquake when the state machinery expressed of capital. This immense economic presence in the inability in carrying out the same. The increasing region could probably be followed by some sort of number of these training camps could be attributed Chinese military presence in the region. to foreign mercenaries present in Pakistan.17 If the Taliban gets a stronghold in POK, it The demography in Gilgit Baltistan in POK would open the gates for proliferation of extremist has changed so much that the Shia, the original activities in the regions bordering POK besides inhabitants of the land, have become a minority. Sunnis Central Asia and India – the Chinese province of from Pakistan were given lucrative job offers and Xinjiang. other incentives to settle in POK. President Zia intended to shift the demographic balance of POK in China’s Influence in PoK favour of Pakistan, primarily a Sunni state, and the The Chinese interest in POK dates back to the orders to this effect were carried out by General construction of Karakoram Highway, the highest road . Similarly, the Northern Light in the world, built at a height of 4665 metres (15,397 Infantry, which mainly comprised men from POK (it feet). The highway has yielded tremendous trading was deployed in the ) is increasingly opportunities for both countries. It has also been used manned by non-locals as the local people are no longer extensively to transfer arms and ammunition from trusted. China to Pakistan, and fissile nuclear and missile material from China. Political Situation Political unrest in POK is based on a range of issues, China has made substantial investments in primarily being the denial of basic rights, constitutional POK especially after the earthquake of 2005. Early and political. People from PoK have migrated to in 2009, it proffered $300 million for development countries like US, and gulf looking for greener projects in Muzaffarabad, Rawalkot and Bagh. pastures as education and job opportunities are not Pakistan and China have also signed several available and political freedom is non-existent. There agreements for building dams in POK, the latest being is also a sectarian divide because of Sunni ingress in the MoU for building a dam in Bunji in Astore district. the region. The region has also been linguistically and India, which views such agreements between China culturally marginalized. Reports such as the Human and Pakistan as adverse to India–China relations, has Rights Violation in Azad Kashmir and Baroness sharply criticized this move. Emma Nicholson’s Kashmir Report for the EU depict a distressing picture of the state of human rights in While OBOR is aimed at linking China to POK. Pakistan’s approach to POK has baffled many Eurasia and fostering economic cooperation between as this area is of immense strategic significance. The countries, CPEC has one aim: Strengthening the relationship between China and Pakistan to almost

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio 11 symbiotic proportions through a $50 billion investment Nevertheless, the effort by the two countries to expand and upgrade Pakistan’s infrastructure. India to address the tricky issue of territorial sovereignty has been wary of CPEC from the outset, even going in Kashmir are welcome and must continue. While it as far as to boycott the high-profile Belt and Road may be prepared to talk, Beijing is unlikely to suspend Forum in Beijing. And with good reason. At the heart work on its economic and strategic projects in of CPEC are a series of roads, power plants and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Even as it engages in a development projects connecting China’s restive necessary and patient dialogue with China, Delhi Xinjiang province to Gwadar in South-Western needs to take a number of steps of its own: Pakistan. The trouble is: CPEC passes straight (a) Delhi must step up the effort to modernise and through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Little deepen J&K’s connectivity with the rest of India. wonder then that, according to a report in Al Jazeera (b) Delhi must test the sincerity of the Pakistani and after the announcement of CPEC by Xi in June 2015, Chinese statements that CPEC is open for Indian Prime Minister told China that this participation. Delhi has not been averse to cross- plan was “unacceptable”. Suchitra Vijayan, a New border infrastructure cooperation in Kashmir and it York-based lawyer told Al Jazeera that India has has made specific proposals to both Pakistan and taken this position because it wants to keep Kashmir China in the past. as a bilateral issue. However, with the introduction (c) Third, the Sino-Indian argument on CPEC in of China and CPEC, Kashmir could become an Kashmir is deeply connected to the question of international issue, which plays into Pakistan’s Arunachal Pradesh. While China asks India to strengths. According to a report in The Tribune, downplay the sovereignty argument in Pakistan Beijing has positioned its armed forces in Gilgit and occupied Kashmir, Beijing objects to all Indian activity, Baltistan to protect the workers who are constructing political or economic, in Arunachal Pradesh. The state CPEC. As per reports, more concerning is that China is part of the Indian Union, but is claimed in entirety wants to have its Military base in Pakistan. The report by China. In Arunachal, Delhi needs to raise its game released by the UN’s Economic and Social on accelerating the state’s economic development and Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said its connectivity to the rest of India. that the project could also fuel separatist movement in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. “The dispute over China has looked to assuage India’s fears Kashmir is also of concern, since the crossing of the and signalled that they would stay neutral on Kashmir. CPEC in the region might create geo-political tension According to a report in the Indian Express, Xi, at with India and ignite further political instability,” said the opening of China’s Belt and Road Forum, said: the report on China’s ambitious Belt and Road “All countries should respect each other’s sovereignty, Initiative (BRI). India’s arguments with China on the dignity and territorial integrity, each other’s BRI have had one important effect. It has helped development paths and social systems, and each bring the triangular dynamic between India, Pakistan other’s core interests and major concerns.” While Xi and China in Jammu and Kashmir into sharp focus. did not mention India or CPEC, the implication was Although the popular discourse in India sees Kashmir clear. However, political analysts worry is if China, as a bilateral issue with Pakistan, China has always given the high stakes involved in CPEC, will China made it a three-body problem. Unlike the Anglo- be able to stay neutral if the Kashmir issue heats up. Americans who fancied mediation between India and Pakistan supports Chinese involvement in POK for Pakistan in the past, and the Hurriyat separatists who upgradation of infrastructure and development in the now pretend to be the third party, it is China that is region. It seeks to capitalize on Chinese presence in the real third force in Kashmir.18 China’s presence in POK to counterbalance India in a warlike situation Pak-occupied Kashmir has been steadily growing. with India. As the CPEC deepens the integration between Pakistan occupied Kashmir and China, Beijing looms Conclusion larger than ever before over J&K. India has allowed its strong hold in Kashmir to slip and has not played its cards well. Opportunities came India’s way but our Leaders let them slip. I leave to

12 World Focus July 2017 the readers to decide whether the creation of POK Endnotes could have been avoided. Was POK created due to 1 Pyarelal, Mahatma Gandhi – The Last Phase the circumstances as they happened, or a British 2 Alan Campbell – Johnson, Mission with Mount Batten creation or was it due to wrong approach by some of 3 A K Mazumdar, Advent of Indian Independence our Leaders of that time. Present scenario suggests 4 that, POK is likely to become the geo-strategic R J Moore, Escape from Empire: The Attlee chessboard between India, China and Pakistan. India’s Government and the Indian Problem military option is absolutely ruled out now as India 5 Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Balraj Krishan may not like to create a militarise zone in this area. 6 Molana Azad, India Wins Freedom 7 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel India cannot look back towards US now as 8 the strategic logic that largely drove George W. Bush Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel and Barack Obama’s overtures to India, that India’s 9 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel rise is in America’s larger interest, can no longer be 10 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel the basis of India-US engagement under Trump. 11 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel There remains a lot of confusion about the future 12 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel trajectory of India-US relations under Trump. It is 13 Trump’s China policy which will have the most Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel significant long-term impact on India and regional 14 Balraj Krishan, Sardar Vallabhai Patel geopolitics. There is growing concern that as Trump 15 Brig. Anil Gupta, Kashmir Cauldron: Who stoked the turns America inwards, he is ceding the strategic fire space to China. Even Russia may not get involved 16 Ranjit Singh Kalha, CPEC: the need for a second against China’s interests. Recent exchange of diplomatic statements amongst the three states look by India strongly indicates such a possibility, where each is 17 Dr Priyanka Singh, Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir: The vying to promote its own political, economic and Future Trajectory strategic pursuit. There are new opportunities, if only 18 C Raja Mohan, Article, The politics of territory Indian policy mandarins remain open to new possibilities.

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August 2017 Turmoil in Europe & India-EU Ties (10th July) September 2017 Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan (10th August) October 2017 Oil Politics & Central Asia (10th September) November 2017 India’s Foreign Policy: Series – 1 (10th October) December 2017 India’s Foreign Policy: Series - 2 (10th November)

Creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Present Scenerio 13 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: Perspectives Prof. Snehalata Panda

Repetitions of history are as relevant as the theory and social media portals contributed to the spike in that each occurrence is unique by itself for linking violent crimes with unusual speed and intensity across the present with the past. Jammu and Kashmir’s the border. Adverse opinion in India veers round the history lies in between the two. Cascading out of debate on referring the matter to UN for a settlement it is the dispute over PoK accelerated by strategic, by the Nehru government in India which has provided political and economic factors. scope for Pakistan to ask for mediation of countries Introduction: extraneous to the issue to settle the dispute. US Pakistani occupied Jammu and Kashmir (1) (PoK) ambassador to the UN’s offer to mediate on the issue with a territory of about 13,297 square kilometers is no different from the earlier attempts made by and an estimated population of about four million has Pakistan for external intervention to decide the dominated public discourse in India since China’s Kashmir dispute. Trump government’s stress on announcement to invest in the China- Pak Economic “America First” indicates its disinterest in the Indo- Corridor (CPEC), the gateway to its Belt and Road Pak dispute but it may not discount the expanding Initiative. Core issue is sovereignty of the land that is influence of China and Russia in the region. China disputed for the last seven decades between the two has been progressing well in globalizing its Belt Road countries. Notwithstanding the claim of India, Initiative (BRI). Even though India has sustained its Pakistan ceded to China the Shaksgam tract along stand on sovereignty of the disputed region; its the north eastern border of Gilgit, -Baltistan which is diplomatic space is limited by the ambition of great now a part of China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous powers though at the moment Sino-Pak diplomatic Region. It has assumed a central place in the political design has not been successful in achieving its circles of both the countries so much so that no objectives. political party dares to budge from the past commitments. In 2014 Modi government had initiated Historical Perspective: the process for peace between India and Pakistan India’s claim on PoK is based on events leading to but soon it morphed in to a dispute of unusual Kashmir’s amalgamation with India. Aspirations for proportions with intensified military action as the independence have been supported by a good Pakistani interest groups are averse to make peace number of people because of the perception that with India without resolving the Kashmir Issue. (2) Kashmir was never a part of India and it was not The unsettled issue has expedited heavy military under British rule during colonization. Its king was spending, surveillance across the averse to the Indian leaders fighting for independence (LoC) with grievous consequences for the people as from colonial rule. (3) This is exacerbated by the faulty well as border patrol personnel. Increasing violence approaches to national integration, demographic across the LoC which India refers as the “international divisions and high-handed policies of the government border” and Pakistan as “working boundary”, besides the contention between India and Pakistan specifically after the “surgical strikes” of 29 centering Jammu and Kashmir. September 2016, has embittered relation between India and Pakistan, alienated the people of Kashmir, Repetitions of history are as relevant as the encouraged China to push forward the China- theory that each occurrence is unique by itself for Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) and initiate linking the present with the past. Jammu and measure to defy India’s claim on Arunachal Pradesh. Kashmir’s history lies in between the two. External factors like Pakistani supported extremists, Archeological discoveries testify that it was a part of China’s interest, influence of radical Islamic groups 14 World Focus July 2017 Indus Valley Civilization, original home for the Aryans India and Pakistan has continued since then on the and witnessed struggle between the Dravidians and issue of plebiscite. The accession day is celebrated Aryans based in Sindh. It was a part of Ashokan and on the Indian side of J&K while the separatists Kanishkan empire. As is evident from the existing consider it as a “black day”. Even the day of accession monuments at Avantipura in the South of Srinagar, it is disputed. (6) Plebiscite could not take off as it is was ruled by Avantiburman from 855-883 AD. mired in several unresolved issues between both the had its foot prints in Kashmir in the 14th century AD. countries. As per the United Nations Security Council Zain-Ul –Abidin ruled it from 1420-1470.In 1586 it (UNSC) resolution s/654 the UN Commission on was conquered by the Mughals. Afghans ruled it when India and Pakistan (UNCIP) was constituted. In April the was losing its hold followed by 1948, it adopted the first plebiscite resolution which the Sikh rule. When the Sikhs were defeated by the called for withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the British in 1846 the state came under General Gulab territory of Jammu & Kashmir and reduction in the Singh who was rewarded for his help in defeating number of Indian armed forces. UN made several the Sikhs and his successors ruled it till 1947.Its past attempts to implement plebiscite till 1958 but could is chronicled by Kalhana in “Rajtarangani, Chinese not succeed due to their intransigence on this issue. traveler Hsuan-tsang and Arab scholar Al Beruni. Both the countries have established political control on the territories under their control that is Government According to some scholars Kashmir was of Jammu and Kashmir in Indian federation and no different from other princely states which had Government of Azad Kashmir in Pakistan. The entered into treaty with the British government of Kashmiris have not reconciled to this phenomenon India but enjoyed considerable independence in ruling but are divided on the issue of independence and over their respective territories. With the lapse of merger. In 1957, north-western Kashmir was fully British paramountcy, they were given the option to integrated into Pakistan becoming Azad Kashmir join either India or Pakistan. (4) Though the rulers (Pakistan Administered Kashmir). In 1962 China were legally free to join either India or Pakistan into occupied Aksai Chin, the north-eastern region which India was divided, the major determinants were bordering Ladakh. Later India captured more than religion and geography. The issue of Kashmir’s 80 percent of the Siachin glacier. Pakistan reiterates accession to India is settled in 1947 but the process Kashmiri’s right to self-determination by the plebiscite was different. Pakistan claimed it on the basis of but India argues that Jammu and Kashmir is an religion and signed the Standstill Agreement where integral part of India after the signing of the Instrument as India maintained a secularist stand. While the of Accession by the King. The dispute resulted in ruler was undecided violence broke out in Jammu, wars between the two countries in 1947and 1965 and Poonch and Gilgit. Pakistan blocked the passage of a limited conflict in 1999. The state is divided by the essential commodities to Jammu and Kashmir through Line of Control, the ceasefire line agreed upon in its territory. In September 1947, the tribals invaded 1947 and modified as per the of the valley with Pakistani support. Upon the request 1972. Linguistic affinity of the region with Kashmir of the ruler India provided military assistance which is debated as Kashmiri is not the language of all the was conditional on signing of the Instrument of people of PoK. It is “Hindco an offshoot of Pahari, Accession but the final political status was to be followed by Gojri and other dialects.” It has more decided through plebiscite. The ruler of Kashmir similarities with Jammu rather than Kashmir but the agreed to accede to the Dominion of India on 26 people are more emotional by relating to Kashmir October 1947 after failing to subdue the invasion of and claim it “as their own “as is evident from their his territory by the Pathan tribesman. Lord literature replete with approbation of Kashmir valley, Mountbatten then Governor General of India made “sacrifices of people for Azadi”in the “wake of “gross the remark that “it is my government’s wish that as human rights violations by Indian forces”. People have soon as law and order have been restored in Jammu a negative perception about India. (7) They are divided and Kashmir and her soil cleared of the invader the on the issue of its future, some are for complete question of the state’s accession should be settled by independence of Kashmir. But compared to them a reference to the people’’. (5) The dispute between more people are in favour of joining with Pakistan.(8)

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: Perspectives 15 Strategic Perspective: As per the Sino-Pakistan ‘boundary POK comprises the so-called Azad Kashmir and agreement’ of 1963, Pakistan ceded 5,180 sq km of Gilgit-Baltistan. Azad Kashmir(AJK) is governed by territory to China in Aksai chin in order to facilitate Azad Kashmir Interim Constitution Act, 1974. It has China to build the Karakorum Highway providing over a governing structure but under the control of Pakistani land link between Beijing and Karachi. This highway government. It is governed as per the Karachi passes through Kashmir territory and has been Agreement signed between the president of Azad constructed illegally without the permission of India. Kashmir, the Muslim Conference and a minister of It includes a portion of Hunza territory of the erstwhile Pakistan. In 2009 Pakistan announced the Gilgit Gilgit Agency of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order The two countries signed MoU in 2006 to widen the which reversed the name of Northern Areas to Gilgit- highway. China has invested in infrastructure projects Baltistan. Politically it became similar to AJK but in the POK since 2005 when it was badly affected controlled by Pakistan. It is criticised as more in tune by an earthquake. CPEC will further facilitate trade to please China as it has heavily invested in this region. and commerce allowing China to access the Central The CPEC linking to Gwadar port in Pakistan and Asian market through the disputed territory. Pakistan China is passing through this disputed territory. With has succeeded in accelerating Chinese involvement a conglomerate of pro independent groups and pro in the region for development of infrastructure as well India groups it is the most disturbed territory. A as counterbalancing India. At the moment China has committee headed by the Advisor of Foreign Affairs indicated its non-involvement in settling the Kashmir of Pakistan has proposed to give it the status of fifth issue but interested in POK to advance its influence province. This is a serious challenge to India’s and commercial activities across South and Central resolution that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part Asia. Pakistan would continue to keep India in of India including PoK. pressure by escalating disturbances in Kashmir valley. US has supported Afghanistan’s view to open the Besides using the territory for proxy war with Wakhan Corridor while China does not agree for India, it has immense strategic and economic value possible escalation of terrorist activities in its disturbed for Pakistan. Its geographic location is used by Xinxiang province where the Uighur secessionist Pakistan to further its strategic objectives. It shares movement is strong due to the jehadi groups reportedly its borders with Punjab and North West Provinces in trained in Pakistani Madrassas. (10) The militant Pakistan in the west, the Wakhan Corridor of camps despite being destroyed in the 2005 earth quake Afghanistan in the north-west,Xinjiang province of have surfaced within no time. The trained militants China in the north and Jammu and Kashmir of India are a threat to the neighbouring countries as well as to the east. The irony is, it is the most backward even for escalation of global terrorism. But lack of though it shares its borders with the two fast consensus between the great powers to rise above developing economies in the region. The reason is their narrow self-interest has helped but little in obvious as it is used by the extremist groups to carry restraining their expansive destructive activities. on their activities in Jammu and Kashmir. Home grown terrorists of Pakistan are trained in the camps Nuclear Perspective: located in this region. Successive governments in Scare of nuclear war looms large in the subcontinent Pakistan have been successful in changing its after Pakistan tested its nuclear device and acquired demography by encouraging the Sunni Muslims to technological improvisation capability with no clear settle in the POK. Consequently, the Shias are announcement on its options to use. India has the reduced to a minority. (9) Repressive policies against nuclear capability with a “No First Use” (NFU) policy the Shias resulted in frequent disturbances and weak and “is an instrument of balance” (11) Vijay Shankar governance has exacerbated demographic, social and argues that “negotiated agreements assuage friction economic problems. Presence of terrorists has made between nations during Times of trouble. The it a theater of war and diplomatic machinations. credibility of India’s deterrence is sought through Interest of US and China has added to its security periodic technological intrusions”. The doctrine has problem. remained unchanged since 2003. (12). According to

16 World Focus July 2017 him China adheres to NFU as well as maintenance winnability, destruction of the enemy without of credible minimum deterrence which has been destroying the attackers’ territory then the sustained since 1964.But reportedly China has been consequences will be disastrous. “After 72 years assisting Pakistan and North Korea which has given since the last use of nuclear weapons, neither has it “an antagonistic tripolar character” to nuclear proliferation occurred en masse nor have nuclear proliferation. The Chinese policy of N F U should be weapons found tactical favour. The world’s ‘nuclear applicable to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal but military realpolitik ontogeny’ now suggests that the first step control over the civilian government has made its towards the negation of nuclear weapons is to find nuclear programme less credible. Its recent value in a universal declaration of no first use”. (15) announcement to use nuclear power if threatened This is more important than ever in view of the indicates that it will not hesitate to use nuclear tension on PoK issue. weapons against India. Threat being not defined the subcontinent is most vulnerable for nuclear war as China-Pak Economic Corridor: unrest in Kashmir and horrific incidents across the CPEC spanning 3000 kms has diluted India’s claim LoC are accelerating. “Pakistan has no declared of sovereignty on the territory. China has fast doctrine; its collaborative nuclear programme with forwarded its Belt Road Initiative by investing in China drives nuclear policy. It espouses an opaque CPEC. The Belt and Road Forum for International deterrent under military control steered by precepts Cooperation meeting reiterated its stand. It will be obscure in form, seeped in ambiguity and guided by a conduit for China to access to territories spanning military strategy that not only finds unity with non- three continents to promote economic, political and state actors, but also perceives conventional and strategic objectives as well as play greater role in nuclear weapons as one continuum. The introduction conflict resolution. (16) It is passing through a disputed of tactical nuclear weapons exacerbates matters. It territory administered by a nation that is politically has periodically professed four thresholds which if unstable and economically weak. The project besides transgressed triggers a nuclear response; these are undermining India’s interests is aimed at creation of geographic, economic, military and political. It does China centric world. BRF will be a platform to achieve not take a great deal of intellectual exertion to declare its objective specifically in view of inward looking whose case lowering of the nuclear threshold US policy. India’s stand on CPEC is sustained ever promotes”. (13) since the project was announced to be built on the disputed territory without discussion with India. The However,India’s NFU is criticised as its issue of sovereignty of the territory cannot be official statements since 1999 and induction of first compromised howsoever genuine China’s intentions strike weapons to its nuclear arsenal has diluted its might be in its behemoth BRI. (17) nuclear policy. While the 1999 draft doctrine clearly stated India’s commitment to NFU,2003 doctrine Chinese scholars have raised apprehensions indicated a qualitative NFU that is India has the right on India’s stand as it is a member of Asian to respond to chemical and biological attacks. In 2010, Infrastructure Investment Bank and , it was further clarified that NFU applies to countries China, India, Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor not possessing nuclear weapons. Lack of clarity in of which BRI is a part. They underscore India’s dislike its actions and announcements is one of the reasons for China’s growing clout in the region and China for its failure to enlist support of the nuclear suppliers dominated global order. Indo -Japanese cooperation group even after its membership of the Missile on the Freedom Corridor as an alternative to China’s Technology Control Regime. (14) China along with BRI reinforces this argument. Moreover, India’s other members of NSG has objected India’s relation with China has been backsliding for its membership insisting that clear guidelines should be objection to India’s membership of NSG and Massod formulated for NSG membership. Nuclear Azhar issue. Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and proliferation has sustained deterrence for the China’s recent announcements relating to Arunachal presumption that such a war is not winnable. But if Pradesh are serious bumps in the road to bilateral nations reverse the presumption by focusing on relationship. (18)

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: Perspectives 17 The motto behind the project is to have an China has no altruistic intentions in investing on CPEC outlet for its manufactured goods, alternative trade can be inferred from the Hembantota port project routes outside Malacca Strait and South China Sea. built in with Chinese loan. The issue of But Mao Siwei dismisses Malacca Dilemma and loss of Sri Lankan sovereignty over the land is still argues that if it can be blocked so will be Gwadar perturbing. Similarly, loans given by China to some and the security of the route cannot be guaranteed in African countries have become controversial for non- future as it passes through the disturbed area. Chinese utilization of local labour, use of Chinese material and ships have used the sea lanes of Indian Ocean without machinery and nil generation of wealth. The Kyauk any security problem so far. In order to ensure security Pyu project in Myanmar too, is encountering China has to maintain military presence as well as problem.Myitsone project was stopped because of friendly relation with India. (19) resistance by the Burman majority who are against dam construction on the Irrawadi River. But Central It will be a boon for Pakistan in strategic and Asian Countries are benefitting from Chinese built economic terms. Its energy needs will be fulfilled with infrastructure and have provided land for Chinese Chinese assistance besides connecting Baluchistan, industries. Central Asian steppe is leased to China Khaibar-Pakhtunkhwa and federally administered for farming benefitting China’s domestic needs and tribal areas, quite unrest as well as balance against agri commerce. It has gained geopolitical clout besides India. China has proposed to build two power projects, improvement in employment and market access. 7100 MW Bunji Dam and 4500MW Bhasha Dam in Withdrawal of US from its leadership role in Asia Gilgit which are parts of CPEC. Pakistan has sought will provide China an opportunity to expand its fresh international arbitral tribunal proceedings against influence further. India over two comparatively small projects in its part of Jammu and Kashmir shows its incongruous Most interesting is Pakistan has invited India approach to its two powerful nations. The dams to join the CPEC. (20) China has welcomed its besides being huge will accelerate China’s strategic decision as a “goodwill gesture” but prefers to include presence but escalate resistance by the locals in view India on the basis of consensus perhaps because of the environmental hazards, demographic China was not consulted by Pakistan about the displacement and jeopardize the future of Indus Water decision. Liu Zongyi writes about the condition for Treaty leading to further tension between India, India that is “Pakistanis themselves do not want India Pakistan and China. to be part of the CPEC or they believe if India hopes to join it must improve bilateral ties first… CPEC Its economic viability too, is doubtful. China runs through Pakistan controlled Kashmir which is will invest about $50 billion out of which 75 percent is also claimed by India as its territory .It is almost loan and 25 percent equity. Pakistan will have to suicidal for Indian politicians to make concessions service debt to the tune of 4 billion annually. But over the issue…The fundamental reason why India without 7 percent year on year growth it will be is against the project is that China could get access impossible for Pakistan to service Chinese debt. It to the gate of Indian Ocean through the corridor and will plunge Pakistan into a debt trap coming out of Pakistan’s strength will be enhanced” ....CPEC is a which will be difficult for its sagging economic multilateral project..aiming at regional economic performance with no promise of growing fast anytime integration. And so it is inclusive...India, Afghanistan soon. It envisages investments in special economic Iran and Central Asian countries can participate and Zones but in view of disturbances in Baluchistan the become stake holders. International concern about project will be less attractive for investment. the belt road initiative is for its geopolitical implications. Opposition is mounting for discriminatory federal China will oppose labelling Pakistan as supporting governance. Even so it serves its India baiting terrorism”. (21) diplomacy and opens an avenue to control the disputed territory reinforced with the support of China. China The inclusion of a third party is a well on the other hand will hasten its linkage to Central calculated diplomacy as work on CPEC has Asia where it has invested in several sectors. That encountered difficulties due to which it may be

18 World Focus July 2017 delayed and might become a burden on China. map and economy are no match for Pakistan Security is a major problem even though Pakistan ,international opinion favours equating both sometimes has provided but the joint report recommends for even putting Pakistan above India perceivably to seeking help from Chinese sources. (22) demoralise India .This is more so after Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear power and announcement to Opinion in India is divided about India’s use it if threatened. After the Simla Agreement signed absence in the BRIF. The claim of sovereignty is in 1972 successive Pakistani governments have debated for the Karakoram highway is built on attempted to amalgamate these areas into Pakistan “disputed” territory. Its economic advantages are but the Azad Kashmir government (POK) has insisted stressed through commerce in the branch corridors that Gilgit and Baltistan were a part of Jammu and of CPEC. But India’s support to China in 1950s did Kashmir. not ensure peace neither has its commercial relation since 1990s has ensured support for its membership Recent Indo-Pak tension across LoC has of UN Security Council, NSG and other international increasingly favoured domestic opinion to follow issues. Rather lack of trust and competition with extreme measures like abrogation of MFN status to adverse trade relation characterise relationship Pakistan, closure of embassy and even bombing between both the countries. across the border. The Krishna Ghati incident (23) has reiterated it further. This is sound in view of the Concluding Observations: failure of the peace initiatives made by India in 2014- POK has disabled India to link directly with Central 15. A conducive environment for political solution to Asia and Afghanistan. Passages in Kashmir are the problem between the two countries was evident available but they have weak infrastructure and risky when Pakistan’s political balance shifted in favour of for communication. India’s sovereignty on this Nawaz Sharif in 1998-99. The Agra initiative indicated territory will enable it to share the border with diffusion of crisis between the two countries which Khaiber-Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan on one side and was repeated again in 2013 and reinforced with Indian the Wakhan Corridor with Afghanistan opening up prime minister’s “neighbourhood first” policy. But soon access to Central Asian markets. Moreover, Chinese the environment became hostile. control will end once for all and peace will prevail in Jammu and Kashmir. But this seems to be a remote India and Pakistan have made efforts to possibility under the present diplomatic design of resolve the dispute through dialogue, a frame work India’s neighbours and interest of great powers. for a settlement over Kashmir was attempted by which Pakistan was to give up its claim over the territory Annexation of the territory by use of military and India would agree to a soft border but the deal is another possibility but the consequences may be was scuttled in 2008 when LeT led attack in Mumbai suicidal under the present circumstances. Pakistan killing 170 people. Soon the political process was has been tightening its control over Gilgit-Baltistan, resumed but without any tangible outcome. The the latest being elevating it to the status of its fifth problem could not be solved because of internal province thereby overriding the claim of India that it pressure in both the countries. The pressure in India is a disputed territory. In the aftermath of earthquake is non military but in Pakistan the generals are averse in this region Chinese presence with escalated to any kind of agreement. Pakistan has accelerated investment in development projects including its nuclear tests after India was allowed access to infrastructure indicates that India’s diplomatic civil nuclear technology. Now that both are nuclear initiatives have failed to put on hold Pakistan’s powers it is hoped that war will be detrimental for endeavour to tighten its control. Pakistan’s diplomatic the aggressor. But Pakistan’s recent announcements isolation is not successful either as big powers contradict nuclear capability as deterrence.It could perceive it as a hedge to fight extremists .Poor hardly tame the terror groups neither will it give up economies of South Asia bank upon Chinese its claim on Indian held Kashmir .But the present development funds .Despite India’s endeavour to developments indicate that it might cross the threshold keep it a step ahead of Pakistan as its development

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: Perspectives 19 .With the changing perception of Pakistani elites use emphasis on transactional relationship. Recently of nuclear power is possible if it is threatened. Trump has referred India as one of the “victims of terrorism.” (24). The annual budget has also indicated Dispute over POK has caused immense loss “New Silk Road” project mooted earlier by former of life in both the countries. It has made the Pakistani US secretary of state Hillary Clinton that will be a military more powerful. Both have diverted huge “joint investment project aimed at economic growth amount of funds for military modernization and and stability in Central Asia”. (26) It will be a challenge acquisition of nuclear power. Pakistan supports the to China’s BRI specifically in Central Asia. Taliban to undermine India’s allies in the northern India has more resources now to counter Afghanistan. The LeT is still surviving though banned Pakistani pressure but the time is not suitable in view in 2001 and continues to get support from Pakistani of volatile international relations the shape of which military.”By itself, a settlement with India will not is unpredictable at the moment. But a permanent make Pakistan a safe place. But it would encourage solution to the problem will take the edge off incessant a series of changes—reining in the generals, building hostility saving people and property. Such a solution up democratic institutions, spending more on health is impossible anytime soon. Therefore, India should and education, rejecting Islamist terrorism, rethinking keep its diplomatic channels open and enhance its its approach to Afghanistan—which could start to capabilities to counter challenges from a strong locus. transform the country. Until that happens, Pakistan will remain a disappointment to itself and a danger to References: the world” (24) 1.Renamed by Modi government also called as Azad Kashmir in Pakistan, Pakistani controlled(administered) Kashmirby UN. POK was in the news when US made a massive hunt for the Al –Queda leader Osama –bin Laden who was reportedly in Muzaffarabad , the capital of AJK. The region is haven for militant training camps. The terrorists involved in Present stand of India is different from its Mumbai in November 2008 travelled from Bait-ul Mujahaideen ,the operational headquarters earlier initiative when it held top level discussions of Lashkar-e-Toyyaba(LeT). in Muzaffarabad,via Karachi to Mumbai.The chief of LeT Zaki-ur Rehman was arrested in Muzaffarabad the capital of AJK. despite such occurrences. Now it perceives that 2.except the 1971 Indo-Pak war. 3. This is evident from the Kohala Bridge incident of 1946 .When Nehru was refused entry diplomatic isolation of Pakistan will lessen cross into the territory of Jammu &Kashmir .He along with his followers were arrested when they border attacks, pare down militancy and restore peace entered the state,http://topyaps.com/17-lesser-known-facts-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-pok). .(4)Anil Athale,Kashmir;Historical Background,India defence review,net in Jammu and Kashmir. But Pakistan besides being edition,21,August,2016. 5.The Hindustan Times, October 14,1947. closer to China and Russia has conducted naval 6.Prem Shankar Jha is of the opinion that it was signed on 25 October 1947 while British exercises and reached out to the Central Asian researcher Andrew Whitehead noted that it was signed on 27 October 1947. 7.India is perceived as repressive. nations. Defiance of ICJ decision on the Kulbhushan 8.http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-occupied-kashmir-the-future- trajectory/0)/ Jadav case are but indications that it has alternative 9.Except Baltistan and Gupis ,all the divisions of PoK are Sunni .Ismailies are in majority in options to defy India. Pakistan probably is repairing Gupis and Shias in majority in Baltistan. 10.http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-occupied-kashmir-the-future- the damage to the losses it has incurred in the trajectory/ 11.Vijay Shankar, The value of a Declared No First Use Policy, The Strategist,1 May, 2017. diplomatic front by continuing the conflict as the 12.ibid military has a strong hold on the political domain. This 13.ibid 14.http://www.ipcs.org/article/pakistan/indias-nuclear-doctrine-and-strategy-5263.html is evident from the Nagrota attack. 15.ibid. 16.China ready to play a greater role in resolving conflicts in South and South East Asia ,Global Times, May 1,2017 Big power support to Pakistan is not ruled 17.BRI is based on three principles which are Gong Shang(negotiate/talk),Gong Jian(construct/ Build,Gong Xiang(share good results) and five connections namely-political, infrastructure, out as Russia is selling it arms and needs it for its capital, trade and people-to people. 18.https://scroll.in/article/838124/chinas-touchiness-over-the-dalai-lama-is-in-line-with-its- fight against terrorism. Pakistan is closer to US since aim-of-usurping-tibetan-buddhism 1950. With periodic intransigence, the relationship was 19. In his blog, titled ‘Three Misgivings on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor’, published on 10 December ,2016. over all satisfactory between the two countries. It 20. According to Pakistani media, Amir Riaz, the Pakistan Army’s chief, invited India to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and “share the receives huge amount of US assistance following the fruits of future development by shelving anti-Pakistan activities and subversion.” US war on terror. Even the Trump administration has 21. Liu Zongyi Pakistan’s CPEC proposal to India sends an important gesture’, [email protected] ,See(http://www.indocanadaoutlook.com/index.php/archives/ continued assistance to Pakistan though a proposal 2017/january-2017/2226-pakistans-cpec-invitation-to-india-sends-important-gesture 22.Joint Research Report on CPEC, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of People’s has been incorporated in the annual budget of the (Renmin) University of China and Caijing Magazine ,20 December 2016. president to convert its aid into debt, the final call of 23.beheading and mutilating of captured military personnel 24.http://www.economist.com/node/18712525/ which will be taken by the US Department of Foreign 25.http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/india-a-victim-of-terrorism-has-endured- unspeakable-horror-us-president-trump-in-saudi-arabia/story- Affairs. It is a reflection of Trump administration’s t8WnMsPD6j3ra0JYHSsK9O.html 26.India key player in US’ 2 infra projects in Asia; move to counter China’s OBOR. 20 World Focus July 2017 Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India Dr. SudhanshuTripathi

As the 1994 Indian parliamentary resolution taken the toll of around 9000 injured and 100 dead. reiterated the legal position that the entire territory As is well known that this unrest was precipitated by of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and the killing of , the commander of Kashmir is an integral part of India and asked Hurriyat, as he was very popular among misguided Pakistan to vacate the area under its illegal and distraught youths of the valley because of his occupation, it is, therefore, difficult to comprehend close connect with anti-national and anti-social youths why India has taken so long to assert its legitimate of the border state for his regular social media claim over PoK in an effective and forceful postings. manner. Indeed, India’s lackadaisical attitude on this issue is responsible, to a large extent, for the Though the restlessness among the misguided present chaotic situation in the Kashmir Valley. It youths of the state is not a new phenomenon as most has also provided Pakistan an opportunity to of them appear used to the environment of anarchy consolidate its hold over PoK - divided and disorder or gun culture and even macabre administratively into so-called ‘Azad Jammu violence and terror and consequently therefore they Kashmir’ and the Northern Areas of Gilgit- very often take recourse to lawlessness and anarchy Baltistan. Hence as a solution, the Indian like stone pelting or attacking police and security government should consider the complex issue in forces and military in their unethical and immoral bid a holistic manner by learning from the past of protecting terrorists and anti-national elements from mistakes and must take innovative and bold them. As a matter of fact, PoK or Azad Kashmir is a measures to solve this vexed issue. Prime Minister part of the greater Kashmir region which Modi’s initiative on PoK is an important first step unfortunately continues to remain a highly contentious in that direction and that may indeed create good issue between India and Pakistan because being based prospects for more such actions to follow in future. on Pakistan’s territorial claim over PoK. The territory of PoK is situated to the west of India’s state of Introduction Jammu and Kashmir which was earlier a part of the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) or Azad Jammu former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. But and Kashmir abbreviated as AJK and commonly that ceased to exist as a result of the 1947 India - known as Azad Kashmir, is a self-governing Pakistan war on Kashmir. Again the territory shares administrative unit of Pakistan which is undergoing a border with Gilgit Baltistan, together with which it the worst kind of turbulence for the past many is referred to by the United Nations and other decades and has now taken the shape of a major international organisations as “Pakistan-administered civil war. Closely related with it is the current spell Kashmir.” The territory also borders with Punjab of political turmoil in an adjoining region known as province of Pakistan in the south and Khyber Gilgit Baltistan - a part of Pakistan occupied Kashmir Pakhtunkwhala province in the west. And Azad (PoK) - as regards its conversion into Pakistan’s fifth Kashmir, in the east, is separated from the Indian- province and that has gained deep traction due to administered state of Jammu and Kashmir by the Line China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) of control - the de-facto border between India and programme launched by China. While grim situations Pakistan. It has a total area of 13,297 square kms have had occurred earlier too in the Kashmir valley (5,134 sq miles), with an estimated population of but the ongoing chaos being witnessed here are as around 5 million people. The economy of the PoK serious as the one that actually happened after the rests mostly on agriculture, services, tourism, and arrest of Sheikh Abdullah in 1953, which have already remittances sent by members of the Mirpuri British

Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India 21 community. Nearly, 87% people of this region are provisionally created a semblance of enfranchisement engaged in farming as they own their farms. The but without conceding Gilgit Baltistan their political region has a literacy rate of approximately 72% and right to represent in the National Assembly and Senate has the highest enrolment in Pakistani schools. of Pakistan. In fact, the region is a crucial land link connecting CPEC from Kashgar to Gwadar and is This paper is about long persisting of unequivocal salience to the project. Hence, while lawlessness and ongoing civil war like situation in the CPEC mission is gradually unfolding in select sectors, Pakistan occupied Kashmir which continues to exert an important part of the existing debate on the legal grave repercussions in the Kashmir Valley as well as status of Gilgit Baltistan as a province is of particular the entire country thereby adversely affecting India’s concern for India where speculations are rife about sovereign control over the entire state of Jammu and Beijing’s covert agenda for helping out Pakistan to Kashmir in the eyes of militants-terrorists and deliberately change the politico-legal status of the separatists operating in the border state provided with region so as to suit their nefarious designs evolved as the logistical help extended by Pakistan supported -Beijing axis, particularly targeted against cross-border terrorism along with other regional and India. global terror groups having shelter in Pakistani territory since the long past. Political System As regards political set up in the PoK - the political The second part discusses about Pakisan’s system is copied from the Westminster model of dilemma as regards incorporating the region as a full- parliamentary democracy that characterizes Great fledged province into its territory followed by India’s Britain- with its capital located at Muzaffarabad. The concerns of ever mounting militancy and terrorism in President of Azad Kashmir is the titular head of the the valley and the third part deals Chinese state and the prime minister is the real chief executive machinations in the region and the subsequent part of the government as well as the polity, helped by a discusses about the available possible options with Council of Ministers. The unicameral Azad Jammu India which the country can proceed ahead. Lastly and Kashmir legislative Assembly elects both the the paper concludes in favour dynamic diplomacy by Prime Minister and the President. There exists its India for pressurising Pakistan and China with a view own Supreme Court and a High Court in the state, to restrain them into interfering in Gilgit Baltistan and while the Government of Pakistan’s Ministry of fomenting regular troubles and such grave threats in Kashmir Affairs serves as a link between itself and the PoK along with initiating bold steps for stamping the government of the PoK. Neither Azad Kashmir out militancy and terrorism immediately along with nor Gilgit-Baltistan elect members to Pakistan’s facilitating for speedy socio-economic and political National Assembly which proves that neither of these reforms and reviving the cultural distinctions of disputed political units owe allegiance to the kashmiriat in the state. sovereignty of Pakistan.

Considering the sensitive geopolitical nature Pakistan’s gamble of Gilgit Baltistan with respect to its own security While integrating Gilgit Baltistan as its province by and stability, India is bitterly contesting Pakistan’s Pakistan may look a win-win game for both Beijing gamble of granting provincial status to this region, and Islamabad but it may result as a hard pie to thereby leading to mounting bitterness to the frosty swallow because that shall be construed as severing India-Pakistan relations. Geographically, Gilgit Islamabad’s link with Kashmir. Since the region had Baltistan consists of the larger chunk of PoK which been designated as disputed because of its Kashmir has been under Pakistan’s illegal control since 1947. connection, it (Gilgit Baltistan) has been perpetually The region remained politically deprived for decades suffering from a state of political deficit or deprivation and disenfranchised until 2009, when quasi-political and disempowerment ever since partition of India and reforms in the form of an Empowerment and Self- creation of Pakistan in1947. What is very pertinent rule Order was enacted essentially to contain the here is the fact that a provision in Pakistan’s simmering discontent among masses which, however, Constitution circumvents the region with the future

22 World Focus July 2017 of the Kashmir issue. In fact the Article 257 of enjoys among Kashmiri separatists in India. In fact Pakistan’s Constitution particularly deals with the these separatists and their leaders in J&K have all country’s relations with those parts of the former along been propped up or nurtured by Pakistan and princely state of Jammu and Kashmir lying under its its secret agency ISI for decades. Obviously they hold. have firmly refuted the very idea of according provincial status to Gilgit Baltistan. The article provides: “When the people of the State of Jammu and Kashmir decide to accede to India’s concerns Pakistan, the relationship between Pakistan and the If the September 17 attack on an Army camp in Uri State shall be determined in accordance with the is a reminder of the military challenge India still wishes of the people of that State.” Obviously the confronts in Jammu and Kashmir, Prime Minister question arises as to why and how Pakistan assumed Narendra Modi’s resolve to become firm and assertive this responsibility of deciding the future of the region. on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) must be From where did it get the mandate to do so? As the considered as a significant development hitherto Gilgit Baltistan’s provincial status issue is primarily unknown in the realm of Indian diplomacy barring being viewed through the wider prism of likely few exceptions noticed in the regime of Late PM implications and fallout on the country’s broad Indira Gandhi. In fact, assertiveness on this Kashmir strategy in Pakistan, the formalisation of issue should have been Indian policy as soon as it Gilgit Baltistan’s political status as a province may became clear that UN Security Council resolutions necessitate re-formulating the fundamental contours on Jammu and Kashmir could not be implemented of Pakistan’s Kashmir strategy. Thus, apart from because of Pakistan’s intransigence in observing the significant constitutional amendments, Pakistan would mandated first steps. After succeeding in asserting need to watch as to how India views the issue and its total control over PoK, Pakistan focused its reacts to this change. It is believed that Pakistan attention towards J&K, particularly the Kashmir acquiring a part of PoK may “set a steady precedent” valley and began fomenting all kinds of vicious and for India and bestow a “viable fall back option” if it heinous troubles which it continues unrestrained still decides to think in terms of the full integration of the today. Until and unless there is pressure on Pakistan state of J&K. Indeed, Gilgit Baltistan’s integration in PoK, including Gilgit Baltistan, Islamabad is unlikely into Pakistan is bound to consolidate the supporters to mend its ongoing ways in Jammu and Kashmir. within India advocating J&K’s full integration into the Union of India because Kashmir continues to be Therefore, Prime Minister Modi’s decision the lifeblood of Pakistan’s India project. to be more proactive in PoK has come as a breath of fresh air. India now needs to go through all out and It is the focus of Pakistan’s proxies against with full might to overcome this challenge. Indian India - a justification for committing aggression and leaders and diplomats must forge close contacts with an excuse to interfere into internal affairs of the prominent leaders of the different regions in the PoK, country on false grounds of human rights violations including Gilgit Baltistan, who are living in exile and suppressing the demand of independence. In fact, because of Pakistan’s brute and horrific policies; these contending views as regards Gilgit Baltistan’s highlight the cases of blatant violations of human rights provincial status issue prevail upon Pakistan’s policy in the region; expose Pakistan’s double standards with makers to resort to long drawn contemplation and respect to the PoK; and extend all out moral support purported hesitations. While Pakistan may be looking to the local leaders and people at large in their fight for a middle path solution without compromising its against Pakistani occupation. declared positon on Kashmir, it is difficult to comprehend weather the country is preparing to give Fortunately, with a predominant Muslim up its persisting hostile policy against India and instead population, the region was once highly critical of the totally subscribe to China’s economic agenda. Also plebiscite demand repeatedly harped by Pakistan. the move to integrate Gilgit Baltistan would cost dear Unfortunately today the region stands as a tool for to Pakistan, considering the largescale support it protecting and advancing Islamabad’s strategic goals.

Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India 23 Being handed transient structures of governance for under control of Pakistan. Secondly, China’s decades, the region later became a commodity of conservative risk prevention strategy of precious tussle between ‘AJK’ and Pakistan. While totally investments conflict with endangering billions in a resisting the proposed provincial status, ‘AJK’ has disputed territory having only a provisional status and thrown the gauntlet to regain its influence and control still having the undecided future because that is slated over Gilgit Baltistan, against the prospects of to be re-negotiated (by China’s own admission) as bolstering its political roadmap in Kashmir by per Article 6 of the Sino-Pakistan Border Agreement consolidating its support. Hence, the proposal to 1963. Thus the so emerging security constraints due accord provincial status to Gilgit Baltistan will only to evolving Beijing-Islamabad axis are significantly conform to a long-sustained pattern of Pakistan’s against the Indian national interests and that demands political experiments in the region with a view to India-Pakistan talks to continue against all odds so achieve an edge vis-a-vis India and also to justify its that even a few chances of some fruitful negotiations ongoing butchery and criminal conspiracy committed may always remain alive to avoid any possibility of by its armed forces and premier security agency ‘ISI’ war between the two nations as both are now nuclear respectively in the region and also in the entire Indian powers and it is futile to wage a nuclear war because state so as to extract even if it be a little bit of solace in such a war there is neither victor nor vanquished. against its massive defeats repeatedly by the hand of the India armed forces. Without affording its legal- India-Pakistan talks must continue constitutional status, Pakistan has linked and de-linked And that the historic Shimla Agreement of 1972 Gilgit Baltistan from the Kashmir issue only to fulfil between the two neigbouring countries mandates to its narrow strategic purposes. resolve all their outstanding issues only bilaterally without any external mediation or interference. Since China’s deep-rooted game Pakistan is illegally occupying a large part of Indian It is quite obvious that the ongoing debate on provincial territory India, instead of watching meekly, must carry status for Gilgit Baltistan is only a facsimile of what over this issue at all for a to pressurize Pakistan to transpired in late 2015 and early 2016, as the then come to negotiation table for meaningful talks. In current debate on provincial status was almost similar fact, India’s long held inertia vis-a-vis PoK in the past to the present discourse and also that the probability has led to the creation of a false mindset among a concerning a possible Chinese hand existed then as large section of Indians and also others in the world well. Even as long back as in the mid-1980s, the Gilgit who consider that any dialogue between India and Baltistan Bar Association too demanded that the region Pakistan on Kashmir issue means discussions about be made a province of Pakistan. Hence the demand the future of Kashmir valley. But PM Modi has done of provincial status existed much well before the away with this wrong perception with his masterstroke Chinese stakes became deeply involved. And it has and has rightly expanded the country’s stand on PoK been estimated that the popularity of such a demand which must include Gilgit Baltistan and that will go a is quite high. Notwithstanding this fact, the inevitability long way in changing the earlier mindset. Hence in and possibility of the Chinese dimension based on any forthcoming bilateral talks with Pakistan, India CPEC prospects cannot be overlooked because that must insist on keeping the Kashmir issue at the top of as a driving force in the current spate of deliberations the agenda, besides putting pressure upon Islamabad must hold ground. The China factor has, indeed, to vacate the areas under its illegal occupation and added a fresh lease of life and speculation at least in must stop aiding and abetting militancy and terrorism the present leg when a renewed effort to inside its territory. India has so far been reluctant to constitutionally empower Gilgit Baltistan is actively talk about Kashmir at international fora thereby being made by both Beijing and Islamabad. It is creating an incorrect perception about its actual obvious that the complete merger of the PoK into position which has been deliberately distorted by Pakistan would inevitably favour China. Having Pakistan just to conceal its own mischief and control of a significant portion of the region- the Trans crookedness. This needs to be drastically changed at Karakoram Tract- the Chinese strategy and interests the earliest. India must not only come out clear with will be best protected with Gilgit Baltistan remaining its stand on Kashmir and expose Pakistan’s duplicity

24 World Focus July 2017 in bilateral discussions with friendly countries, it must address, and the heightened frequency of official expose to the world about the unholy nexus with public statements on the PoK do indicate that India militants and terrorist groups of all kinds to whom could well be thinking in terms of re-drawing the rules Pakistan has provided shelter inside its territory and of engagement. Lately, Gilgit Baltistan in particular other logistic facilities with the sole objective to disturb has significantly been elevated into India’s strategic and destroy India at any cost. In short the external calculations due to the Chinese foray into the region. dimension of the Kashmir issue for India ought to These besides, the extant territorial claim on this region include the following items: considerably validate India’s objections pertaining to formation of the CPEC. 1.To be more proactive and assertive and also be genuinely offensive if the need so arises about its Although both Pakistan and China ostensibly rightful claim on PoK including Gilgit-Baltistan; wish to prioritise their economic prospects in a shared 2.Must include Kashmir in the agenda for bilateral manner through the process of incorporating Gilgit discussions with Pakistan in which India should press Baltistan yet the entire endeavour reflect their greed for Pakistan to vacate the area under its illegal of territorial expansion. Their common agenda is occupation; amply clear before policy makers in India and New 3.Immediately launch a massive diplomatic exercise Delhi, in all likelihood, may not subscribe to with all friendly countries so as to explain its policy complement their approach this time. A standing on Kashmir; and territorial claim lies in India’s potential strategic options 4.Must expose all the heinous and barbaric atrocities against consolidating Beijing-Islamabad nexus in PoK that Pakistani forces have inflicted upon innocent and India must not take risk to abandon it at this Indian soldiers and such civilians so far. moment.

Besides highlighting the external dimension As is crystal clear from the past experience of the Kashmir issue, there is also a need for India to that India-Pakistan bilateral endeavour as regards seriously ponder over the internal dimensions as well retaining permanent status quo has not succeeded and to go in for the necessary course correction despite all best proclamations and projection, as a wherever required. consequence- for any possibility of future success- its fundamental thrust needs to diverge from pre- India: logic, deductions, options existing notions and needs to redefine its overall Although the incorporation of Gilgit Baltistan- if so strategy with a view to reinforce its policy on PoK. happens - into Pakistan’s territory may considerably In times of a perceptible qualitative shift in policy undermine India’s claim on the region but it cannot formulation and posturing, Gilgit Baltistan’s absorption altogether remove it, because irrespective of the will yield India an opportunity to re-explore its options unlawful incorporation India will continue to uphold in terms of restoring peace, stability and normalcy in its claim more vociferously on both parts of PoK as it J&K. Obviously India may explore more options to has been doing since 1947. Though on the domestic choose to engage more with such drastic views as front India’s policy on PoK has been dismissed as abrogating Art 370 which can pave way for J&K’s being inert and least assertive since the very beginning complete and final integration with the Union of India. but that cannot be an alibi for not initiating the lawful But just not by invoking legal provisions or announcing demand afresh. And that exactly is being done under political resolutions as regards J&K, enough will the new political dispensation led by PM Modi remain to manage the ground as it obtains today in wherein a concerted effort is being made to alter the the valley as well as in the entire state. previously held perception – that PoK is a peripheral issue on the list of India’s strategic priorities. While Managing the internal situation boldly raising issues concerning PoK, be it As the prevailing internal situation in the valley as compensation for refugees or protection of their well as in the state is highly tense and quite grim, the human rights with dignity, Prime Minister Modi’s top priority ought to be given to normalize it anyhow reference on this issue in his Independence Day and all efforts at present should be directed towards

Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India 25 the particular end. But extra care must be observed The strategy of radical Islamists/ jihadi by law enforcing agencies to heal the hapless majority militants, who have a global agenda, has been to come reeling under bruises and scares and permanent loss forward with financial and military assistance of their departed beloved one’s caused by the long wherever Muslims are fighting for their rights or spell of militancy and terror in the state. The most against their genuine or perceived grievances. crucial issue is how the government of India deals Thereafter, they gradually take over control of the with so-called anti-national or separatist elements. movement and inflict untold barbarity and macabre crimes upon them as is seen in case of Islamic terrorist In fact, these separatists in Kashmir include (ISIS) of Iraq and Syria. Kashmiri Muslims need to both pro-Pakistan and pro-independence population be cautioned about this, as it threatens their long - who possess different goals to pursue. Hence putting evolved distinguishing culture of tolerance all of them together under the label ‘separatists’ and characterized as Sufism. The growth of radical Islam dealing with them as a single entity does not seem to as propagated by Wahabis/ Salafis in the Valley would be a rational approach. Hence, the pro-Pakistan and not only change their way of life but could also drag pro-independence elements should be clearly Kashmiri Muslims into wider international conflicts distinguished and should be handled accordingly. for their inevitable destruction. Thirdly, the long and Though in a different context, even the Supreme Court continued deployment of the army and -military of India has also objected to loosely labelling any one forces in the valley may become counterproductive as a ‘separatist’ or a ‘terrorist’; therefore the as it may result into the gradual decline in their prosecution agencies must abide by the directive of discipline and effectiveness. the apex court. As far as pro-Pakistan elements are concerned, they should be so categorised by giving Hence the army should be deployed in short them wide access and publicity to the treatment meted spurts in selected areas on a need-to-use basis and out to ethnic minorities in Pakistan that they may withdrawn as soon as possible after restoring peace understand the true motive of Pakistan and may not and stability. Similarly, instead of the continued get be fooled by Pakistani tactics. It would be very imposition of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, pertinent here to explain to the Kashmiri natives about it be also imposed on the requirement and then be how the Punjabi-dominated Pakistani regime treated lifted and be confined to areas actually affected by Bengali Muslims and how it continues to treat Balochs, militancy and terrorism. Fourthly, the issue relating to Pashtuns, Sindhis, Muhajirs and even the people of abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution, PoK – especially Gilgit-Baltistan – and that will which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir, certainly cripple the Pakistani hold over pro-Pak should be temporarily set aside in the larger national elements. interest because the situation is still not ripe today in the valley lest the situation may deteriorate to become There should be no room for any talks with like that of earlier Bosnia and Herzegovina of 1990s these elements if they fail to mend their so-practiced or as there obtains in Syria and Iraq. ways, nor should any facility be extended to them except those which is under the rule of law. With In addition, the government of India, in respect to pro-independence elements, however, the conjunction with the state government, must consider government should be open heartedly provide short-term, mid-term and long-term measures which maximum opportunities to engage them in a proper may help assuage the hurt and bruised sentiments of way. Further, the fact that Islamabad is against ordinary Kashmiris by bridging the trust deficit and independence and is striving only for the merger of bringing them closer to the national mainstream. These the region with Pakistan should repeatedly be could include promoting infrastructural, industrial and reiterated to them – thus highlighting the fact that the other social and economic developments in the region Pakistani establishment has a totally different agenda. and creating more job opportunities besides promoting Secondly, the growth of radical Islam in Kashmir is sports and cultural activities is one way of keeping another area of grave concern. youth in the valley engaged and away from disruptive and criminal activities. Similarly, their induction in the

26 World Focus July 2017 para-military forces, including the central armed police 2016-17/1107 forces should also be considered as an effective Kashmir in Turmoil 2016, South Asia Politics, New measure of entrusting them with responsibilities of Delhi, Vol. 15, No. 9, Jan. 2017, P 44. nation building. Navnita Chadha Behera, Demystifying Kashmir, Pearson-Longman, New Delhi, 2006, p. 198. Conclusion Nirupama Subramanian, “Gilgit-Baltistan: Alienation is Undoubtedly, the utmost priority today should be to an issue, but no connect to India,” The Indian Express, restore normalcy and law and order in the valley in June 9, 2015, at http://indianexpress.com/article/ any way possible within the framework of rule of explained/gilgit-baltistan-alienation-is-an-issue-but-no- law as well as that of Nature so as to bring the connect-to-india/ prevailing extremely grim ground situation in the Noor-Ul-Qamrain, “Geelani warns Pakistan about Gilgit, Kashmir valley under perfect control. But Baltistan,” The Sunday Guardian, August 1, 2015, at simultaneously, the Indian government should consider http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/geelani- the complex issue in a holistic manner by learning warns-pakistan-about-gilgit-baltistan Priyanka Singh, “Gilgit Baltistan: Province, No from the past mistakes and take innovative and bold Province?” IDSA Comment, August 27, 2015, at http:/ measures to solve this vexed issue. As an option Prime /www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ Minister Modi’s initiative of evolving and practicing GilgitBaltistanProvinceNoProvince _psingh_270815 an assertive and muscular foreign policy not only as Priyanka Singh, “Gilgit Baltistan as Fifth Province: regards PoK - as was seen during the surgical strike Reconciling with the Status Quo?” IDSA Comment, in the PoK and earlier a year before in Myanmar but March 4, 2016, at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ also elsewhere - may prove to be a milestone towards gilgit-baltistan-as-fifth-province_psingh_040316 opening for more such actions to follow towards Syed-Ansar-Hussain, “Gilgit-Baltistan in limbo,” , resolving all such pending complex issues towards January 8, 2013, at https://www.dawn.com/news/ their positive and lasting solution. But, at the same 7771356. Tariq Naqash, “AJK govt opposes moves to time, the eternal moral values like, peace, truth, love convert GB into province,” Dawn, January 10, 2016, and justice etc. have no substitutes to invoke upon at https://www.dawn.com/news/1232018 and use for progress and welfare of humanity in the The Boundary Agreement between China and Pakistan, world. Perhaps both PM Modi and PM Nawaz 1963, at http://people.unica.it/annamariabaldussi/files/ Sharieff understand it very well. In fact no issue, 2015/04/China-Pakistan-1963.pdf howsoever complex it may be, is unresolvable as The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, nothing is beyond human endeavor. at http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/documents/ 1333523681_951.pdf, p.151 References “The Fifth Province,” The Nation, June 7, 2015, at Early day motion 1107, “Annexation of Gilgit-Baltistan http://nation.com.pk/editorials/07-Jun-2015/the-fifth- by Pakistan as its fifth frontier,” The British Parliament, province March 23, 2017, at https://www.parliament.uk/edm/

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Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) & India 27 Current Affairs

‘Trilateral’ Solution to the Kashmir Issue: Not Bilateral ! G. Kishore Babu

In working out an out of the box solution of of China and India each withdraw 20 kilometres at our border disputes and supporting in the practical once from the so called Mc Mahon line in the east, and realistic trilateral peace process between India, and from the line up to which each side exercises Pakistan and China, the Modi Government is moving actual control in the west”. However, in 1980, Deng with times for the good of all will stand reinforced, Xiaoping was willing to settle the border issue on winning global support. To do this we must realize status quo of 1980 and not 1960 as Chou En Lai had that the settlement with Pakistan and China needs to offered Nehru. In 1982 the Chinese leader Deng be trilateral, with India, China and Pakistan being an Xiaoping offered a proposal to the Indians to settle integral part of the settlement. We can easily close the Indo-Chinese border on a “As is and where is” our border issues with China and Pakistan on a tri- basis. Best possible solution of swapping our interests lateral basis, particularly based on ground realities in Aksai Chin while retaining our interests in Arunachal today where it has become more of a regional issue also came up during the Vajpayee administration. It particularly in light of OBOR, and trade and economy appears however that lack of political mandate did among the three nations. Under current ground not allow any further development. realities, no Pakistan civil government can settle its border issue with India on its own and remain in power Prime Minister Sh. Vajpayee almost settled as it needs the “Kavach” of the so called big powers the border issue with Pakistan (who got Pakistan to to survive politically after signing up for peace with agree on the proposal of you keep your part of Kashmir India. This is a reality for all to see. we keep our part, a little give and take to make the border region better to administrate and close the Historically, India’s Prime Minister Sh. issue) and was working on settling the Indo- China Vajpayee decided to start a process of settlement issue. If re-elected Sh. Vajpayee would have solved with Pakistan in 1999, as he saw that despite two both the Indo- Pakistan and the Indo- China border decisive wins of war by Indira Gandhi and Lal issues. But lack of Political Majority and time Bahadur Shastri, there was no political move by India subsequently did not let it happen. Of all things said to take over the parts of Kashmir held by Pakistan. about China it foremost wants peace in the area as it Sh. Vajpayee brought in peace talks with President does not want escalation of the independence Musharraf in Lahore that almost saw a resolution to movement in the Xinjiang and Tibet provinces. It the border issue. When asked by was willing to settle along the international border of about the peace talks, Sh. Vajpayee informed (as the Mc Mahon line in the East giving us Arunachal reported by PTI): “I have suggested to Pakistan Pradesh, as it has accepted the Mc Mahon line as President Musharraf that you keep this part [Kashmir] the border of Sikkim and China and in the West the with you and we will keep ours, this way we will issue is still open to negotiations, as the Chinese agreed settle the [Kashmir] issue and also set right the Line to settle with the Mc Cartney- Mc Donald line, of Control”. offered by Chou En Lai on a “As is and where is basis.” Before the 1962 war or the one before that, In 1960, the then Chinese premier, Chou En the Johnson Line drawn in 1865 by the British Lai had written to Nehru; “In order to maintain becoming the border with Tibet or the Johnson- effectively the status quo of the border between the Ardagh line. two countries, to ensure the tranquillity of the border The British had different border lines at different times regions and create a favourable atmosphere for a to keep away different enemies from coming to their friendly settlement of the boundary question, the possession of India. The borders were used as Chinese government proposes that the armed forces 28 World Focus July 2017 “Kavachs” to protect their “Sone Ki Chidia”. eminent judges of the same Honourable Supreme Decades later Prime Minister Sh. Modi is trying to Court. bring in ethical ways of governance for the first time in 70 years of Independent India, who is showing a Secondly, later on Indira Gandhi gifted to Sri great magnanimous vision and has successfully settled Lanka the Kachchatheevu Island, for peace and good the 70 year old dispute with Bangladesh to the neighbourly relations, a petition was filed in the satisfaction of all, winning global recognition for the Supreme Court that the matter was not ratified by same. Prime Minister Modi stresses that India alone parliament, to which the Indian Government stated. cannot walk the talk of peace, others should also move No territory belonging to India was ceded nor which is true. sovereignty relinquished since the area was in dispute and had never been demarcated.” Much of India’s The issue of Ratification by Parliament of borders were never demarcated by British India, so any give and take of land in the tri-lateral settlement these border issues are pending to be sorted out. with Pakistan and China and the issue of the subject being part of the preamble or not of the Constitution In the event of the Chinese Foreign Minister of India, we see the following two issues. Firstly, the Yang Yi’s recent visit to Kabul and Islamabad and Berubari land dispute in Eastern India was a creation his attempts to resolve contentious issues between of the border demarcation done in a hurry by Sir Afghanistan and Pakistan, there have been diplomatic Radcliffe, some omissions were in the written texts anxieties in many quarters regarding China’s latest that led to this issue. The Berubari dispute was efforts in pressurizing Pakistan authorities to reign in resolved by Nehru-Noor agreement in 1958. By terrorist networks in Afghanistan. This seems as a amendment of the Constitution by Parliament using novel experiment of China’s sincere overtures in power of Article 368. The Government is said to have curbing the menace of terrorism initially. But it is readied the amendments to Articles in the Constitution possible at a later phase that China may also mediate that will have to be looked into, to let the border between India and Pakistan for maintaining peace in disputes be settled, Preamble part of Constitution or the region. These new strange developments may not is a separate issue, the same issue was seen change the geo-strategic scenario completely and differently by different people, at different times, all unfold unexpected possibilities for future balance of power in the region.

‘I Want To Show The People Of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir...’: PM Narendra Modi’s Top 5 Quotes April 02, 2017 22:14 IST

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi today inaugurated India’s longest road tunnel on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. The tunnel cuts short the journey between the two cities by 30 km and reduces travel time by two hours. He later addressed a rally in Jammu’s , the headquarters of the army’s North Command. Here are the top five quotes from PM Modi’s speech: 1. I want to tell the youth of Kashmir Valley what is the strength of a stone. On one side, misguided youth are throwing stones and on the other side there are youth breaking stones to build Kashmir’s future.

2. I want to tell the people of Kashmir, you have two roads in front of you - tourism and terrorism. For last 40 years so much blood has spilled, but nothing has been achieved. If anybody has lost anything, it is the mother who lost the son. If tourism would have been made the focus in the last 40 years, Kashmir would be the hub of tourists.

3. Those who on the other side can’t control themselves. I want to show the people of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) how Jammu and Kashmir can develop. Let people of PoK see what is development so that they know the exploitation that they have suffered from those controlling them.

4. Every person of the state remembers Atal Bihari Vajpayee - the motto of Insaniyat and Jamhuriyat will be taken forward by us to march ahead.

5. This tunnel will change the fortunes of the valley’s farmers, their produce will not rot due to road closures. (Courtesy: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/i-want-to-show-the-people-of-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-pm-modis-top-5-quotes-1676377)

‘Trilateral’ Solution to the Kashmir Issue: Not Bilateral ! 29 Confidence Building Measures Travel and Trade Across LOC Dr. B. Srinivas, IPS

Among a series of Confidence Building countries to revisit and attempt to resolve many issues. Measures that have been put in place over the past However, Kashmir continues to be the major area of one decade to ease the tension between India and concern where in the past three decades witnessed Pakistan, the twin Confidence Building Measures of increased activities, Kargil incursions and LOC Travel and LOC Trade have stood the test of of late, serious internal security challenges with street times and are in operation, al beit, with interruptions protests and militancy, aided and supported by the during periods of heightened hostility between the two neighbour from across. neighbours. The Confidence Building Measure aimed at building trust among the border populations on Notwithstanding the setbacks in the peace either side of LOC made a modest beginning and it initiatives, Indian Government has continuously has forged the reunion of many of the undivided engaged with the Pakistan establishment and pushed families on either side. The opening up of more routes for composite dialogue. One of the main components to permit foot crossings, though is said to have its of the composite dialogue and the recommendations own security implications, would certainly enhance of the Joint Working Group set up by the Indian Prime the bonhomie among the border populace. The LOC Minister has been the initiative to make borders Trade has the added dimension to the people to people irrelevant or less relevant without compromising on contact and bring forth the economic relations the long stated positions. It is towards this end that a between the two populations. The barter trade, number of Confidence Building Measures were put despite its short comings and inadequacies, had into place between India and Pakistan, in general and opened up new economic opportunities among the between Jammu and Kashmir and Pak Occupied traders on both sides of the LOC. Kashmir, in Particular.

The emotional reunion and the economic Among all the Confidence Building Measures activities bringing together the earlier undivided that were reached between India and Pakistan, two families, in a small measure, are contributing to make major activities that continue to operate despite the the borders less irrelevant. Promotion of trade in hostilities between the two neighbours have been the different routes and promotion of travel for Cross LOC Trade and the Cross LOC Travel. As a educational and religious tourism would go a long way part of the composite dialogue between India and in easing out tensions among the two neighbours in a Pakistan and as a measure towards increasing people significant way and these twin Confidence Building to people contact on both sides of Kashmir, the twin Measure can always set the ground for further peace mechanisms of Cross LOC Trade and Cross LOC initiatives. Travel got into place and both the Confidence Building Measure are standing the test of hard times in the Relations between India and Pakistan, since past more than one decade. The lofty ideals of partition, have been under strain due to the historical making borders irrelevant may not have become a and political factors. Jammu and Kashmir continues reality but certainly these measures created a to be the main thaw in resolving many a issue that congenial atmosphere among the populace on both keep both the neighbours at the threshold of perpetual sides of Kashmir and giving filllip to the peace process. confrontation. A number of initiatives over the decades including , Shimla Cross LOC Travel Agreement, Lahore Bus ride and , from The Cross LOC travel between Srinagar, the summer time to time, made the political establishment in both capital of Jammu and Kashmir and Muzaffarabad in

30 World Focus July 2017 Pak Occupied Kashmir was the first people to people Service which got started with great fanfare had its contact that got initiated through a bus service on major hiccup with serious disruption in the wake of April 7, 2005. It may be relevant to note that the 2005 earth quake in Pak Occupied Kashmir and other inaugural bus service was preluded by a major terrorist neighboring areas. The quake had damaged the lifeline suicide attack at the Tourist Reception Centre in connectivity of the cross LOC travel and it took a Srinagar a day prior to the rollout of the bus service. while for restoration of the road and resumption of In a dastardly attack, two terrorists entered the the service. Tourist Reception Centre and launched a major attack in the premises where a number of civilians and the As a sequel to the cross LOC travel in the passengers bound by the inaugural bus service were Kashmir region, both India and Pakistan have staying. The counter terrorist operation had, however, launched another cross LOC Bus Service in 2006 neutralized the terrorists and the civilians as well as where in the Poonch region of Jammu got connected passengers of the bus service were rescued. to Rawalkot on the other side of Kashmir. Further, to Undithered by the terrorist threat, the bus service encourage the reunion of the divided families on either was inaugurated the next day by the Indian Prime side of LOC, both India and Pakistan have Minister and the bus service continues to date, al beit, announced the opening of foot crossings at Titwal in with occasional interruptions when hostilities between Karna region in district in Kashmir. Similar the two neighbours run high or when the operation of foot crossing have been considered for a few other the bus service becomes difficult due to serious law places in Jammu region too. and order and militancy related disturbances in North Kashmir through which the bus traverses. The Confidence Building Measure of cross LOC travel is bringing with it some attendant security The Srinagar-Muzaffrabad Service, concerns. Despite all the security clearances and connecting Kashmir with Pak Occupied Kashmir vetting being done on both sides of Kashmir, terrorist brings in the message of peace and people to people groups have still succeeded in using this travel contact on both sides of Kashmir. The bus service is exercise to advance its own design. A number of aptly Christened as Karwan-e-Aman and covers a recoveries related to fake currency, Pakistan SIM distance of 170 kms. which, after leaving Srinagar Cards, satellite phones and at times, empty cartridges reaches what is popularly known as Aman Setu or and ammunition besides objectionable documents bridge of peace at the Line of Control in the Uri were said to have been recovered from the Sector of district in North Kashmir and passengers in both the bus services and legal then moves into Pak Occupied Kashmir towards processes were said to be set into motion against Muzaffarabad. It is important to note that the buses such defaulter passengers. Despite these aberrations are not allowed to cross the Aman Setu. The noticed occasionally, cross LOC travel has turned passengers are alighted from the vehicles near Aman out to be a major Confidence Building Measure for Setu and Cross the bridge by foot and get into the uniting the people on both sides and easing out the waiting vehicles on the other side of the bridge and restrictions on the meetings among the families of move to Muzaffarabad. Similarly, passengers from undivided Kashmir. Pak Occupied Kashmir who reach the other side of Aman Setu cross the bridge and board the waiting The cross LOC travel which started on a SRTC vehicles to travel to Srinagar. The dynamics fortnightly basis had soon become a weekly service of the travel between the two sides deserves a and the travel profile over the years is certainly mention as it stands out as the most serious encouring. It has been noted that more Pak Occupied Confidence Building Measure between India and Kashmir nationals visit Indian side in each bus in both Pakistan to facilitate re-union between the families the routes. It is estimated that more than 5000 people divided by the Line of Control. The Indian citizens of used the LOC travel opportunity from Pak Occupied Jammu and Kashmir get the travel permits from the Kashmir into Kashmir where as 13000 people have Regional Passport Officer, Srinagar after due security availed the LOC travel into Poonch from Rawalkote. vettings by the later. The Srinagar Muzaffrabad Bus The number of People travelling to Pak Occupied

Confidence Building Measures Travel and Trade Across LOC 31 Kashmir from Kashmir side is nearly half the number need felt by government to consider simplifications of the Pak Occupied Kashmir arrivals in both the of entry permit procedures. As a part of the flexibility routes and thus there are regular arrivals and norms, the procedures got refined with the introduction departures of people from both sides of Kashmir, of triple entry permit for cross LOC travel. The making the Confidence Building Measure a very emphasis is also being laid on simplifying the time encouraging exercise. period for getting the permits which, at times, takes more than one year. To reduce the time taken for A long term proposal that could be considered clearances, regular co-ordination meetings are being in the cross LOC travel would be to extend it to held by the Regional Passport Officer to facilitate religious and educational tourism among the people clearances on fast track basis which get delayed at of Kashmir and Pak Occupied Kashmir. With better security agencies. Clearances for travel are being educational facilities on Indian side of Kashmir, people expedited in emergency cases relating to death of of Pak Occupied Kashmir could get an opportunity relatives in Kashmir or Pak Occupied Kashmir. In to get sensitized on the educational avenues in Kashmir as well as Pak Occupied Kashmir, efforts Kashmir. Similarly, Kashmir has a plethora of sufi are being made to create facilities like waiting areas Shrines and other religious institutions which could at operational crossing points to make the travel open a new wave of tolerant thought for the Kashmiri between Kashmir and Pak Occupied Kashmir much populace on the other side. Besides religious and more flexible and less cumbersome. After all, the educational tourism, the breath taking beauty of cross LOC travel is the main Confidence Building Kashmir all along the Jheelum river could be a Measure that has the human and family narrative at paradise to re-visit by the people of Kashmir origin all times since the first bus rolled out from Kashmir on the other side. Needless to mention, some of the to Pak Occupied Kashmir and it is standing test of all Hindu and Muslim religious shrines in Pak Occupied times, including the periods of high hostility. Kashmir would also give an opportunity to the people on Indian side of Kashmir to appreciate the historical Cross LOC Trade sufi tradition that pervaded in entire Jammu and The second major Confidence Building Measure in Kashmir region for centuries. place between the two sides of Kashmir relates to the cross LOC Trade. The Cross LOC Travel The experience of the decade of LOC travel experiment and experience from 2005 soon gave way between the two sides of Kashmir has certainly been to greater expectations and in pursuance of the Prime encouraging. There is enthusiasm among the residents Ministers working Group recommendations on Cross of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of LOC and LOC Confidence Building Measures, the engagement the cross LOC interactions are not only increasing of people of Jammu and Kashmir with people of Pak but are also ending up in restoring old familial ties Occupied Kashmir through trade related activity was with marriages among some of the families. The put into place. The Primary emphasis was to have clearances and procedural impediments which were the local produce of Jammu and Kashmir to be traded experienced in the initial stages are giving way to in Pak Occupied Kashmir and vice versa. In other more practical and pragmatic procedural norms easing words, the Prime products grown or manufactured out many restrictions and the best beneficiaries are in either side of Kashmir were to be brought under the immediate residents of either side of Kashmir the ambit of Cross LOC Trade. A general consensus and the call, thus for the opening more crossings to on LOC Trade, thus, was arrived in 2006, within one integrate people from Kashmir and Pak Occupied year of the initiation of LOC travel. Kashmir would require a serious consideration. A lot of refinement and flexibility, however, could be The institutionalization of LOC trade introduced into issue of travel permits to encourage mechanism has its own prelude. It may be pertinent the LOC travel. to mention that in the early summer of 2008, Jammu and Kashmir State had witnessed serious law and To ease out the restrictions on cross LOC order concerns in the wake of Amarnath Land row travel and also bring in more flexibility, there was a agitation. The agitation which ran for over a month

32 World Focus July 2017 had led to a serious situation with Kashmiri traders reached upto 25 trucks for each side and is in finding it difficult to transport their produce and goods operations for three to four days a week. The striking, into Jammu region and beyond into Punjab and Delhi. and of course, prime feature of this LOC trade is The Kashmir traders suffered hugely and the that it operates as a barter trade and continues to be separatist elements in Kashmir used this opportunity a bone of contention between the two sides of to call this as an economic blockade of Kashmir by Kashmir. There has been no banking mechanism Jammu and gave a call for “Muzaffrabad challo”, involved in the trade as a result there is a very little where in the Kashmir apple growers were asked to check over the issues related to over invoicing by the carry their produce to Muzaffrabad from Kashmir in traders. The traders from Indian side in Kashmir a convoy of trucks. The call evoked a serious have been insisting for setting up Banking facilitates response with a huge number of people participating for LOC trade. The Indian government has also been in the Muzaffrabad challo in June 2008 and the making a serious effort to convince the Pakistan side misadventure was averted by timely action by the for opening banking facilities but the same is yet to security establishment. This episode has certainly be put into place as Pakistan insists that LOC is not hastened the otherwise in pipeline of the Confidence an international border and maintains that banking Building Measure of Cross LOC Trade and in October facilities in LOC trade cannot be acceptable till the 2008, the LOC Trade between Kashmir and Pak all the issues related to Kashmir are not resolved. Occupied Kashmir had formally got initiated. A similar This uncertainty has had certainly an adverse impact LOC Trade route got activated simultaneously on the trading activities in LOC trade as lot of between Poonch in J&K and Rawalkote in Pak imbalances are experienced in the barter by the Occupied Kashmir. traders.

To facilitate the Cross LOC Trade, a The dynamics of LOC trade is significant Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) has been put and needs to be understood in perspective. The in place which mandates the role and responsibilities institutional mechanism for the LOC trade operates of various stake holders. The SOP deals with the from what is known as the “Trade Facilitation Centre” items approved for trade, the modalities related to in Salamabad, Uri in and in Poonch the movement of trucks, dimensions of article and in Jammu region. In the Pak Occupied Kashmir, the packed goods, the movement of vehicles in a convoy destination for Indian trucks is Chakoti in with security, the code of conduct for the drivers and Muzaffarabad route and Rawalkote in Poonch route the timings for arrival and departure for the vehicles and both the destinations are not far off the zero point from both sides of Kashmir. of the LOC. The SOP mandates that the trucks carrying the containers leave at a stipulated time in The significant aspect of the LOC Trade the morning hours from the respective Trade relates to the articles to be traded. A list of 21 items Facilitation Centre and return to their origin by evening of Kashmir origin from Indian side are permitted to after unloading the trade goods. Enroute, on both be traded into Pak Occupied Kashmir and similarly a sides, trucks and drivers are subjected to customs list of 21 items have been approved for the import checks as well as immigration formalities. The from Pak Occupied Kashmir into Jammu and Kashmir vehicles carrying the goods are to move in a convoy on Indian side. The Indian side exports carpets, rugs, and get secured by adequate security deployments shawls, Namdas, Fresh fruit, vegetables, saffron, on the route and between the two facilitation centres walnut, Kashmir Spices, paper mache products etc. on either side of Kashmir. It would take less than The Indian imports include Peshawari leather items, four hours to cover the trade route as they are less dry fruits, precious stones, medicinal herbs, wall than 25 kms in distance from each other. hangings, foam mattresses etc. Two important aspects of the containers The LOC trade, which has started as a carrying the goods deserve a special mention. In the symbolic commodity trade has started with an average first instance, the vehicle requires to be checked for of 15 trucks from each side and over the years it has its bonafides interims of the approved list of SOP

Confidence Building Measures Travel and Trade Across LOC 33 items being carried. In the second phase, the materials more than 750 crore of trade was registered in this require security check. In the absence of serious barter trade. security equipment availability, the security checks are mostly done on a random basis and this leaves The LOC trade which is sustained by the large scope for manipulation. The absence of full familial ties among traders on either side of LOC body scanners for checking the incoming and outgoing needs to transcend into a larger economic activity. material has been a sources of security concern and As of now, it has created stake holders in the villages reports of contraband, arms and unauthorized material and towns around the trade facilitation centre. For being pushed though the barter trade by the Pak its expansion on to a bigger scale, there is lot to be Occupied Kashmir traders have come to light. There done in terms of infrastructure, banking facilities, were a number cases of drug smuggling that got communication lines and expansion of the list of items registered against the drivers who carried such that could be traded. The traders believe that apart objectionable material and legal actions stand initiated. from goods, the LOC trade could also incorporate The important functionaries of the LOC trade including services. the trade facilitation officer, the custodian, the security and immigration officials besides the professionals The major concern in the LOC trade relates associated with the checking of the products have to the communication facilities between the traders their tasks well laid out and mandated under SOP. on both sides. There is no direct communication There are nearly 700 traders from Indian side of between the traders and the traders cannot cross the Kashmir and about 300 traders from Pak side who LOC to meet their counterparts. Establishment of a have made this barter trade sustain for the past 9 few select points for communication in the trade route years. It is not surprising to note that many of the has eased out the concerns of traders only to a lesser traders of both sides are related to each other and in extent. Security concerns over communications on fact, it is in this spirit of bringing together the people both sides have limited the scope of interaction among to people contact that the Confidence Building the traders and the traders, at times, feel seriously Measure of LOC trade got initiated. handicapped to reach out to their counterparts.

Like the LOC travel, the LOC trade has also As of now, the trade operates only from two got into regular halts during the periods of heightened routes, one in Jammu region and another in Kashmir. hostilies between the two neighbours. However, there It may be mentioned that there has been a great has been a dedicated effort by the government to demand for opening of more trade routes and the push the Confidence Building Measure further to Prime Minister working groups have also encourage the people to people contact at an economic recommended a number of other routes including level. It has been observed that in the past years of Jammu-Sialkot, Kargil-Skardu, Nowshera-Mirpur and LOC trade, sizeable amount of goods have been a few more. Opening up of these routes may enhance bartered across the trade points. It is estimated that the trade, economic co-operation and people to people more than 35000 trucks of consignments have been contact on a larger canvass and this may augur well exported from Indian side of Kashmir into Pak for the confidence building among the people of Occupied Kashmir accounting to approximately 2500 Kashmir and Pak Occupied Kashmir. crores. The imports are also in an appreciable number with more than 22000 trucks from Pak Occupied The LOC Trade, with all lofty ideals, had its Kashmir arriving into Indian side of Kashmir. On own limitations despite restricting itself to the people Poonch-Rawalkote (Pak Occupied Kashmir) sector of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. Traders from too, the LOC trade dynamics has been encouraging. Punjab Delhi and other states have also plunged into More than 20000 trucks proceeded from Jammu the LOC trade through proxy traders from the local region into Pak Occupied Kashmir and more than population and are in a position to dictate the course 10000 trucks reported from Pak Occupied Kashmir of the trade. This is an area where the authorities into Poonch carrying trade items. It is observed that may need to exercise greater vigil to ensure the spirit of trade is maintained between two parts of Kashmir

34 World Focus July 2017 only and that traders beyond the border areas, both may, in the long run, will have positive impact on the in Kashmir and Pak Occupied Kashmir would not attitudes and perceptions of people on both the sides. run the trade by proxy. A number of inadequacies in the operation of these Confidence Building Measures, in terms of LOC Future Ahead Travel and LOC Trade came to be experienced over Both Cross LOC Travel and LOC Trade have turned the years. Both the governments need to push for out to be great levelers for bridging both the sides of flexibility in making these Confidence Building Kashmir. They have helped the people of Kashmir Measure work with more ease. In case of LOC living in border areas and the people of Pak Occupied travel, issues concerning quick verification of Kashmir living in the villages on the side of LOC to passengers lists on both sides, less cumbersome reinvigorate their old ties and re-establish the familial documentation, opening up of more crossing points, linkages. The human dimension to the LOC travel extending LOC travel for educational and religious has been supplemented by the economic dimension tourism could be considered. Similarly, in case of of the LOC trade and it is even contributing to the LOC trade, the issues of banking and communication communal amity as many of the traders of Jammu facilities, adequate infrastructure, opening of more region and Pak Occupied Kashmir are from different routes and enlarging the scope of LOC Trade could religions but sharing common economic ethos. This be considered to make it a viable economic option for the people living on both sides.

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Confidence Building Measures Travel and Trade Across LOC 35 Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta

Kashmir Valley has been on the boil once political leadership too was involved into the same again after the decimation of kind of political rhetoric when it was there in the commander Burhan Wani in mid-2016. Relationship opposition benches inside Indian parliament. The ones with Pakistan has gone down subsequently with which are now in the opposition benches are quite consequent escalation of violence in Kashmir. vocal and critical of the government handling or Protestors and police have been clashing in the Valley mishandling of the issue without proposing any viable on daily basis. Pakistan has been describing Wani as solution for the same. a ‘martyr’ and sending off letter to various international fora inviting them to take notice of human Accordingly, both Kashmir and Pak occupied rights violations in Kashmir. India has been blaming Kashmir (PoK) continue to be used as a tennis ball in Pakistan for fomenting the troubles from across the the political power game of the treasury and opposition border, which is disputed by many observers on benches inside the Indian parliament. Neither side Kashmir. Amidst the imbroglio, Prime Minister seem to be serious about solution or attempting for a Narendra Modi, threw a diplomatic gambit from the solution of the protracted problem. Consequently, Red Fort in his Independence Day speech by soldiers are being killed on a regular basis on the one transforming the entire erstwhile narratives on hand; and innocent civilians are under constant threat Kashmir. Therefore, the Indo-Pakistan relations and to their life on account of Pakistan sponsored terrorism Kashmir issue requires to be understood in the light as well as on account of military interventions by of this gambit and the new narrative. The new Indian forces on the other. Civilians and terrorists both narrative is to suspend ‘terrorism’ from the list of have been losing their lives: civilians for no fault of India’s discourse on Indo-Pak relations, and their own; and terrorists being misguided by the vested ‘Kashmir’ from that of Pakistan and move beyond interests with the hope that they will be able to wean the same. Author thus endeavours to critically analyse away freedom or liberation of Kashmir from India and enumerate the imperatives for Indian policy with their sustained violence and so-called struggle makers in terms of what they should do and what for independence. Life in the valley as well as in the they must not do in the light of recent development. PoK stands jeopardised and with each successive Kashmir and especially the Ghulam Kashmir1 action by the governments on either side, the suffering continue to be an Achilles Heel in India’s security of the innocent people maximizes without any signs matrix both within the region as well as in India’s of its mitigation, peace and tranquillity. Therefore, it role in global politics. India and Pakistan have fought makes it imperative that both the government converge wars since their independence: India for defending or do something about it on account of humanitarian Kashmir from falling into the hands of Pakistan; and concerns. It is the life of innocent civilians that is at Pakistan for occupying whole of Kashmir Valley from stake more than the prestige of the nation-states that India. It has led to only bloodshed with no probable are involved in the quagmire of Kashmir and PoK solution ever in the offing. It has further given rise to imbroglio. It is high time that political leaders on both complexity with each successive war and change of sides of the fence must become sensitive to the plight political regime on the either side. Within India when of Kashmiri and stop playing politics. It is in this the ruling party happens to be in the opposition always backdrop that author intents to explore as to what resorts to government-bashing on the pretext of has gone wrong over the years and how it could be mishandling Kashmir on the one hand, and to free resolved to the best of the abilities on either side of Ghulam Kashmir from the clutches of Pakistan by the fence. Author also delineates as to what Indian whatever means possible on the other. Present policy makers ‘must-do’ and ‘must-not-do’ so far a resolution of the issue is concerned. 36 World Focus July 2017 Present Status and the New Narrative: that could be sustained matching that of Pakistan’s. It is quite obvious that Pakistan has been quite So far Indian political leaders have been only snubbing successful in its endeavour to keep the Kashmir issue Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism and issuing not only alive but also internationalizing the same occasional statements for the consumption of against the wishes of India. Kashmir has been there domestic population that Pakistan must vacate the on the political agenda of Pakistan and the same has portion of Kashmir that remains under its illegal been sustained over the last seven decades. On the occupation. Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir must other hand India has been mostly defensive and have a counter-narrative in India. The discourse on sporadic in its claim over the PoK. However, much Kashmir requires to be shifted now in the larger has changed since PoK went into the hands of interests of the Kashmiris. Geo-politics of the South Pakistan. Accordingly, India needs to understand the Asia, South East Asia, South China Sea and Asia in changing circumstances and geo-politics of the region general has been changing with the changing world and evolve a PoK-policy to be pro-active about the order. Therefore, in the light of structural changes impending problem. Under the existing circumstances that the world order and the regional geo-politics are India cannot afford to ignore the developments taking faced with, India must redesign its policy options for place in PoK or around it; especially in view of the PoK and Kashmir. India in the present context needs fact of Chinese growing presence in the region. Given to present a personality of both a dove as well as a this backdrop present government of India has hawk to the regional and world community. The presented a bold move towards a new thinking on government of India must revisit the complex issue the entire problem. It was in August 2016 that Prime of Kashmir, PoK and Gligit-Baltistan in a holistic Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing an all-party manner. This could be made possible through a meeting on the turmoil in the Kashmir Valley, opened thorough analysis of past mistakes, and policy options a new line of attack on Pakistan. He said India needs in the contemporary circumstances. Such an exercise to talk about all parts of Jammu and Kashmir— will help towards evolving innovative and bold Jammu, Ladakh, the Valley, and Pakistan occupied measures towards resolving the protracted problem. Kashmir (PoK). He then elaborated on the same Given the context following counter-strategy may during his speech from the Red Fort on India’s serve as a guideline for policy-makers. Independence Day and said that as PoK was not merely sliver of land along the Jhelum west of Jammu PoK now is on the forefront of China’s and Kashmir, as Pakistan perceived it, but the entire Geopolitical Calculations: India must develop erstwhile portion of the Dogra kingdom to the north, an Upright Posture now called Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).2 India has been There is change in the power play in Kashmir that reluctant so far to voice this claim openly, perhaps has brought PoK to the forefront of China’s hoping that Pakistan would take Indian acquiescence geopolitical calculations. The region came under of their occupation as a trade-off for India retaining spotlight after Xi Jinping announced plans for the Valley. Modi also instructed the Ministry of developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor External Affairs to contact people from PoK living (CPEC) and pledged USD 46 billion for building abroad to register their angst. He also referred to the transport and energy connectivity to link Pakistan with turmoil that Balochistan is facing over last so many China’s ambitious flagship project “One Belt One years and how the people from Balochistan are Road” (OBOR).3 The August 2015 “Karamay requesting him to help them in their struggle against Declaration” detailed Pakistan’s role in China’s global Pakistan and to redress their grievances. He thus scheme. Russia too has indicated its interest in joining made a bold attempt by changing the entire narrative the bandwagon to prop up Pakistan’s strategic on Kashmir Valley issue by pre-empting Pakistan’s significance for Eurasian integration.4 PoK and GB claims. This move and assertion has been analysed is an area witnessing enhanced Chinese presence as a new diplomatic gambit by Modi in national and and with proposed route for the CPEC, thus assuming international media. There is hardly any doubt that great significance. Therefore, raising the issue of PoK India needed to evolve a counter-strategy to and GB by Modi is eminently justified as both are Pakistan’s sinister design and have a set of policies subjects of UN Security Council resolutions, bilateral

Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention 37 agreements and an Indian parliamentary resolution. attack on Army camp in Uri in September 2016;7 As per Article 3 of 1963 Sino-Pakistan border frequent violations of Line of Control (LoC) by agreement, it is accepted that the status of land ceded resorting to bombing and firing; are to name but a by Pakistan, including the Shaksgam Valley and its few. In line of such development, India needs to be surrounding areas, will be finally determined after the more assertive on PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. In fact, settlement of the Kashmir dispute between India and assertiveness on this issue should have been Indian Pakistan by negotiations between China and “the policy as soon as it became clear that UN Security sovereign authority concerned.” The exception is that Council resolutions8 on Jammu and Kashmir could if Pakistan gets sovereignty, the agreement stands as not be implemented because of Pakistan’s negotiated. Thus both countries accepted that India intransigence in taking the mandated first steps.9 could well be the post-settlement “sovereign Under the Simla agreement, signed in July 1972, India authority”.5 This makes it quite obvious that India and Pakistan agreed to resolve all outstanding issues has been remiss for years whereas China has bilaterally. Finally, the 1994 Indian parliamentary incrementally enhanced its presence in the entire resolution reiterated the legal position that the entire region. India thus designed a policy option for itself territory of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and that it will not allow the actions of China over CPEC Kashmir is an integral part of India and asked to go uncontested and that it must have a voice in Pakistan to vacate the area under its illegal CPEC. It was indeed a right move on part of India occupation. This need to be reiterated in no uncertain and well asserted; yet it requires to be matched by terms. actions on the ground. Any geo-economic project that has an impact on the economies of the region will India must expose Mishandling of PoK by affect the politics of the region as well including the Pakistan: balance of power. Pakistan has not been able to manage the governance of PoK in the larger interest and development of India’s inactions over last so many years inhabitants of the region. Therefore, discontentment have also bolstered the morale of both China and is writ large over the entire territory with frequent Pakistan. China and Pakistan was reported to have eruptions of protests by local population. Pakistan has carried out joint patrol along the China-Pakistan changed the demographic pattern of the region by border. Interestingly the area of the patrol, identified bringing in outsiders to settle there. Pakistan has also in the report as “the China-Pakistan border,” is the imposed a constitution which totally ignored the frontier region of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir—an legitimate aspirations of the local population. area claimed by India as an integral part of its Accordingly, even though Pakistan has named it as territory.6 Therefore, within these changing dynamics, “Azad” Kashmir; the fact is that it still exists as it becomes important to analyse as to where exactly “Ghulam” Kashmir as Article 7(2)10 of the “AJK Kashmir fits into the larger China-Pakistan, and India- Constitution” envisages its total subjugation to Pakistan China dynamics. Fact remains that if China wishes with anyone not agreeing to this becoming ineligible success for CPEC it will have to find diplomatic ways to contest elections. Therefore, it is an opportune to resolve Indo-Pak conflicts and take both India and moment for India that India should adopt an aggressive Pakistan into confidence rather trying to divide its policy towards PoK to pre-empt erstwhile two immediate neighbours to further its interest. contributions of Pakistan in the unmaking of PoK and According to some experts economics drives the also Pakistan’s sinister design on rest of the valley. politics, but it is also true that politics at times sabotage India’s pressure on Pakistan in PoK, including Gilgit- economics. India has the only available policy option Baltistan may force Pakistan to mend its ways in of maintaining a strong and upright stand on CPEC Indian Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. and PoK. Pakistan’s duplicity in PoK must be exposed: India must enhance its Assertiveness: There is no denying the fact that after successfully India has already been facing a number of incidents asserting its complete control over PoK, Pakistan like Pathankot attack on Indian Army base camp; started instigating, aiding, and abetting disturbance,

38 World Focus July 2017 turmoil and violence in the Valley—which continues India may gear-up its external intelligence division to to pursue unabated till date. Therefore, India seriously further its interests in this endeavour. India has both needs to make out-of-the-box thinking to teach a the might and the means; that too much superior to befitting lesson to Pakistan so that it is forced to mend Pakistan. It is only the political will that is needed. its ways. The decision of present political leadership Indian policy-makers and diplomats need to learn that in India to be more pro-active in PoK has come to be if China could become a major power of great might an excellent strategy. We are taught from childhood following the tenets of philosophical father Sun Tzu; that ‘attack is the best defence’. Therefore, in line of why can’t we also enhance our status and might this thinking rather than being defensive in Jammu following the tenets of our own philosopher Kautilya, and Kashmir, India need to raise its offensive in myriad which has already proved its utility and pragmatism. of ways to put tremendous pressure on Pakistan. This shall also help India to pre-empt its own pressure Dialogue with Pakistan: which most of the political governments have been It has been reiterated every now and then by Pakistan facing since independence. India now needs to go all that Kashmir is a dispute which require a political out on this. Indian leaders and diplomats should solution through diplomatic means and not through establish contact with leaders from the different military means, as history is a witness to the fact that regions of PoK, including Gilgit-Baltistan, who are military clashes have only led to blood-shed. On the living in exile because of Pakistan’s policies. India same line, India need to project that PoK is such a must highlight the rights violations in the region, expose dispute that requires political solution through Pakistan’s duplicity vis-à-vis POK, and extend moral diplomatic means and keep harping on the same string support to the local population in their fight against before the leaders of the world and people. The way Pakistani occupation. in Simla Agreement, the two countries have resolved to settle all outstanding issues bilaterally; it provides Armed Support to PoK Liberation: leverage to India that in the spirit of Simla Agreement, People of PoK are reeling under the Pakistani regime the issue of PoK must be settled through dialogue and are being treated worse than second class and bilaterally. On the other hand, India must also citizens. They need to be liberated from the clutches think of internationalizing the issues related to of Pakistani leadership as well as Inter-Services liberation of PoK and its natural assimilation with the Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan who are using them rest of the Valley. There is no denying the fact that just to serve their own vested interests and for political this is certainly an issue over which the two countries vendetta. Most political philosophers have argued on need to talk. India’s long inertia vis-à-vis PoK has the lines of Kautilya’s recommendations that a led to the creation of a negative mind-set among a government must resort to sam, dam, dand, bhed large section of Indians who feel that any dialogue (persuasion, temptation, punishment, and division) as on Kashmir with Pakistan means talking only about various, different sequential means to achieve an end. the Valley of Kashmir, which is with India.11 Modi’s India may resort to any of these means that are government has revealed some inkling of such a policy sequenced pragmatically to achieve its goal of foreign approach towards PoK. Therefore, his stand on PoK policy in the interest of the people of PoK as well as including Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan will go a in the interests of its own people of Jammu and long way in changing the widely prevalent negative Kashmir and other parts of India, who quite often mind-set within Indian population and policy-makers. become victim of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Accordingly, in any dialogue with Pakistan, India must India therefore may also think of an armed support insist that PoK should be at the top of the agenda, to the disgruntled elements inside PoK, and provide along with terrorism, and pressurise Pakistan to vacate other logistical help to those motivated people who the areas under its illegal occupation and liberate the are prepared to wage a sustained war against the people of PoK. Pakistani occupation of their territory. It is well in response to the way Pakistan is supporting terrorist India must internationalise the PoK Issue: activities akin to waging guerrilla warfare against the India seems to have been suffering from a Indian government and people; for no fault of India. misperception that raising the issue of PoK on the

Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention 39 international and multilateral forum would be wrong Firstly, the Indian leadership must devise and it may tarnish the international personality of India. means and mechanism to deal with separatists within Owing to this misperception India so far has been the Valley of both the varieties who are pro-Pakistan reluctant to raise the issue of PoK on any international and pro-Independence elements. While dealing with and multilateral forum, which has already taken a the situation they must not be clubbed together as huge toll on India. It has caused severe damage to they have different agendas. The leadership needs Indian policy approach to the conflict over seventy to evolve different methods and means to deal with years of its existence. Time now is to remove this pro-Pakistan element on the one hand, and pro- misperception and change the strategy. India should independence on the other. It has rightly been pointed not only explain its stand on Kashmir and expose out by the Supreme Court of India, though in a Pakistan’s duplicity in bilateral discussion with friendly different context that loosely levelling any one countries, but must also raise it at international and ‘separatist’ and ‘terrorist’ is objectionable and it must multilateral forums to drive its point home in a deft not be done. Hence, they must be dealt with manner. A kind of diplomatic blitz requires to be differently. organised that too in an extremely aggressive manner to internationalise the issue of PoK and Gilgit- Secondly, India should publicise the fact the Baltistan, that it is a long pending disputed territory Pakistan has been a Punjabi-dominated state that which stands illegally occupied by Pakistan. remains involved in mistreating ethnic minorities like Bengali Muslims, Balochis, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Need for Course Correction within India: Muhajirs and also the people of PoK and Gilgit- Situations within the Kashmir valley on the Indian Baltistan. This will help India marginalise the pro- side has been shuttling from normal, to improved, to Pakistani elements both within India as well as tumultuous, and some time grossly disturbed on elsewhere and will weaken their hold on separatist account of massive violence. Presently the situation elements and their tendencies. Any plan of entering inside the Kashmir Valley is quite grim. Indian political into any kind of dialogue with them must be abandoned leadership has mostly adopted peaceful means to lock, stock and barrel. Such character of Pakistan diffuse the crisis whenever it erupts, even though must be brought to the notice of the people in Valley Indian Army remains deployed within the Valley and PoK to contain their affections, if any with among civilians. There must not be any doubt among Pakistan. the Indian policy makers that, diffusing the crisis in the Valley whenever it erupts must be on the top Thirdly, Indian policy-makers may think of priority of the government. Every time India improves engaging the pro-independence elements among the situations to normal or near normal within the separatists and enhance its connectivity with them. Valley, it leaves many scars on the lives of the local Pakistan has always opposed independence of people as they are the ones who suffer on account of Kashmiris and any idea of a separate state of loss of the lives of their near and dear ones on the Kashmir. Rather, since its inception Pakistan has been one hand, and disruption of their life on account of vying for a merger of valley with PoK and thus loss of their property on the other. It is nearly Pakistan, and the same has been reiterated by them impossible to heal their wound. Such people also time and again. They have been fomenting terrorist become vulnerable and an easy prey for subversive activities inside the valley so that creating disturbance elements; that indoctrinate them against the Indian and hate against India they can facilitate and government and military, and quite successfully necessitate the separation of the Valley with motivate them to create further insurgency and consequent merger of the region with Pakistan. India violence. This leads to a vicious cycle of violence must highlight this fact of Pakistan’s intentions to the and suffering to the local population. Therefore, it outside world including the plight of the communities becomes crucial for Indian political leadership to deal who are chosen to be with Pakistan. This shall further with such a situation which is not an easy task. Here strengthen India’s stand on Kashmir and PoK and are certain policy options that the political leadership will also boost the confidence and morale of Indian within India may think of adopting: Army which stands deployed in different nook and

40 World Focus July 2017 corner of the Valley. Pro-independence elements Sixthly, Kashmiris are suffering from a kind within Kashmir are few and gullible and they could of trust deficit in Indian leadership and people. Indian be managed provided India is always pro-active policy-makers need to evolve proper analysis of the towards engaging them and consuming them within causes and accordingly devise means to assuage the the Indian political mainstream. same. The policy makers must evolve means and organise effective policy interventions to assimilate Fourthly, India must also highlight the fact the people of Kashmir in the national mainstream. that Pakistan has fast turned into a safe-haven for Kashmir has been provided with development radical Islamic elements since its inception. Radical package by number of governments in the past, yet it Islam is responsible for jihadi militancy in different is not clear as to where all the money meant for parts of the world, of which Western countries are infrastructural development have gone. The Union also victim. Radical Islam thus has a global agenda government need to work in tandem and at close and thus proactive for the same worldwide. The quarters with state government to evolve policies for advocates of radical Islam are responsible for development in all walks of life. They also need to financial assistance and supply of arms to Muslims in create opportunities on long-term basis within a very different parts of the world who according to them short span of time to engage the Kashmiri youth are fighting for their rights to replenish their genuine irrespective of their gender. This may be made or perceived grievances against their perpetrators possible through development of infrastructure, which are usually political regimes. Radical elements industries, soft-ware technology parks, other within Islam take control of small and big movements economic developments which are region-specific. which has made the people of Kashmir vulnerable. Youth from the Valley must also be inducted into This has also increased the vulnerability of Indian security forces at all levels. Such a policy intervention political leadership in particular and Indian polity in will help towards sucking the unemployed out of the general. India need to educate Kashmiri Muslims resentful masses who generally become the cannon about this fact of Pakistan’s leadership and Islamic fodder for the separatist elements to create the radicalism as it threatens their basic culture of Sufism imbroglio and organise protest movements and and tolerance. They need to be convinced that the marches on the streets. growth of radical Islam as propagated by Wahabis/ Salafis in the Valley would not only change their way Seventhly, cultural activities along with games of life but could also drag Kashmiri Muslims into and sports are another instrument through which wider international conflicts.12 Such development will conflicts could be managed and mitigated. neither be in the interests of Islam, nor to that of Government and civil society may play a constructive Muslims. role in this direction. The companies and business houses may look for youths from Kashmir to provide Fifthly, the special provisions within the them job on the basis of sports quota and engage Constitution of India by way of Article 370 must be them in inter-state games and sports activities. abrogated forthwith. The special status that is Similarly, cultural activities could also be organised accorded to the state by virtue of the existence of involving people from the Valley. Such engagements this Article has lost its relevance and is now there, shall go a long way towards managing the conflict more as a political necessity than anything else. It and contain the disruptive activities. It will also set may have its own merits and demerits with proper or an example before the people from PoK and they improper arguments. Yet it requires to be set aside to will also aspire for the same. facilitate complete assimilation of the State within the Indian polity as an integral part of it. Mere shouting Eighthly, the refugees from PoK living in India from the ramparts that Kashmir is an integral part of and elsewhere must be located and used to air their India is not sufficient it must be established in words, grievances against the Pakistani dispensation. Their actions and spirit. grievances could be promoted on international forums with hard evidences. The endeavour by the Jammu and Kashmir government to have identified 36,348

Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention 41 families for distribution of the rehabilitation package Pakistan and at the same time need to contain the under which each family will get around Rs.5.5 lakh cross-border firing and shelling as it causes hardships is a welcome step. In the long run such population to the life of people residing in border villages. could be used as a potent instrument to expose the However, India must not resort to populist nationalism misdeeds of Pakistan. According to reports the by blowing-up its actions across border. India claimed refugees from West Pakistan, mostly from PoK got to have conducted a surgical strike in PoK in settled in different areas of Jammu, and September 2016 across the Line of Control, which districts, even though they cannot be taken was subsequently denied by Pakistan.15 They way as permanent residents of the state in terms of Jammu surgical strike was thrown to the people through the and Kashmir Constitution.13 Therefore, the electronic media and social networking channels were government of India in collaboration with the state simply unwarranted and policy blunders. India no government must work out a policy for refugees from doubt must resort to such strikes inside Pakistan to PoK and establish a package for their rehabilitation give back Pakistan in its own language of bullets; yet and also use them to expose the plight of the people keep denying any such happening to national and which shall spell out the misdeeds of Pakistan to the international media and project a stand befitting to a world community. peace-loving nation-state. However, just opposite to such a policy Indian Army under the present political What must-not-be-done by Indian Policy leadership tried to exaggerate its actions to the populist Makers?: media simply to please the common people and blew Firstly, Balochistan issue is not like Kashmir. India it out of proportion for the consumption of people. All has never contested it nor is India a contiguous state. this was done to achieve political mileage out of it, India could have had a horse in the race had it bought which by all standards is an anti-national approach. Gwadar from Oman when the possibility arose. It Therefore, political leaders belonging to any political eventually got sold for $3 million to Pakistan in 1958. party in India must not resort to such cheap populist It was again absence of strategic thinking at that nationalism and use sensitive national interests to stage, as India today would not have been worrying further their political ends. about CPEC had it got a toe-hold on Pakistan’s Makran coast.14 Prime Minister Modi committed a Thirdly, the effervescence within the Indian grave mistake by raising the issue of Balochistan from Territory like the one that took place in Jawaharlal Red Fort on Independence Day. Pakistan was quick Nehru University, where a group of misguided to raise fingers on India that it confirms their allegation students resorted to slogan-shouting for independence that India is abetting terror and violence in of Kashmir requires to be handled with utmost Balochistan. This may be used by Pakistan as a maturity. Such matters must be left to the intelligence pretext to support and foment India’s internal wing and should be nipped at the bud stage without disturbances like Maoist , and other resorting to its castigation as a national shame. domestic separatist violence. If at all, needed to use Moreover, youths belonging to any part of India must it to India’s advantage then India could have provided not be captivated and tried as ‘anti-national’ by subtle support to Balochistan movement. It could have branding them as traitors working against the unity been an excellent strategy to defeat Pakistan on its and integrity of India. May be they are doing it under own turf. It could have also helped India in its the indoctrination and motivations of some external endeavour to sabotage the CPEC project of China forces. Such youths must be captivated to reach which is passing through Balochistan majorly. Such a deeply into their psyche and locate the root cause of move by Modi is bound to create further mess and the problem to mitigate the same in a holistic manner. hence must be avoided at all cost. Sooner the However, the way the entire episode was handled corrective steps are adopted it would be better for everything got politicised and a long-drawn debate India. ensued on “Nationalism” throughout the country which was meaningless and the nation got deviated from Secondly, Indian government need to focus the real issue. Rather such episodes should be used on the trans-LoC parts of Kashmir controlled by to further the interest of the intelligence which is

42 World Focus July 2017 working to decipher the real cause and root of the Fifthly, the long adopted posture of ‘strategic external interventions. India must not resort to blowing- restraint’ amidst dreaded of the terrorist attacks by up such instances and issues by shaming it and Pak-sponsored terrorist organizations, requires not politicising it; rather must use it in the national interests only a psychological shift; but a meaningful shift the to mitigate the real cause of it. results of which are visible on the ground rather than merely in the published documents of Indian Fourthly, a group of experts on Kashmir affair government. Mere continuation of the destabilizing have been suggesting the withdrawal of Army exchanges on the border will strain the ever-more- deployment in the Valley as it has been fragile ceasefire rather than leading to a logical counterproductive on account of it being deployed resolution of any of the disputes between the two over a longer period of time. Another group of people nations. Therefore, present or future governments of have been suggesting that Army deployment should India must not try to fool itself or the nation by be in short spurts and that too in selected areas on a publishing that the rate of crimes, terrorist-activities, need-to-use basis and should be withdrawn as soon and skirmishes between civilians and army is on the as the situation stabilises.16 Yet a third group are of decline because of surgical strike. Kashmir warrants the opinion that instead of the continued imposition of that governments at least in this case need to be extra the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, its lifting sensitive and must work on the ground more than it and imposition should be on need basis and confined seem to have been working. Let silence be more to areas actually affected by militant violence. There articulate than speech and writing in case of Kashmir. is no doubt that there are number of pitfalls of deployment of Army for a fairly long period of time Conclusion: in any civilian areas. Army also develops fatigue in a Erstwhile political leadership has been strongly situation of protracted conflict and thus resorts to condemning the encouragement and support which certain actions which are unwarranted and are subject terrorists and their activities have been receiving from of criticism. Army may also lose its relevance in the the State of Pakistan. Almost every Prime Minister eyes of the community within an area of conflict and and External Affairs Ministers of India warned would thus affect their effectiveness in terms of Pakistan not to incite; support and sponsor violence deterrence, which would lessen. However, in a kind and terrorism in any part of the Valley and refrain of situation that is prevailing in Kashmir where a low- from deplorable meddling in India’s internal affairs, intensity military conflict or a proxy-war by Pakistan but in vain. Words and warning carry no meaning is being waged on a sustained basis, makes it and makes Indian policy makers a butt of Pakistani imperative to deploy Indian Army on a long-term basis rulers. Moreover, increasing instances of Sino-Pak as it would be next to impossible to contain the conflict nexus has further complicated the entire gamut of by state police or internal para-military dispensation. relationship between India and Pakistan. Other major Indian policy makers thus must not oblige such experts powers of the world have been issuing statements in who have been advocating withdrawal of Army from accordance with their requirement of national interests the Valley. It is the deployment of Indian Army that and prevailing circumstances, but have not done has strengthened the Indian hold on the ground anything substantial to resolve the crisis. Indo-Pak otherwise Pakistan could have made the situations relationship is continuously on the wane and this has worse inside the Valley, as it has no regards for made the life of people both in the Valley and PoK humanity and human rights. The tribalism that exists increasingly worse. Under such circumstances the in Pakistan’s psyche would have engulfed the people present government of India has threw a new of Kashmir, which they have been failing to diplomatic gambit in so many ways; the results of understand thus far. Syria and Iraq is a must-learn which are still not yet visible. lesson for those who are thinking of a long-sustained struggle for either independence or separation of the Raising issues such as a comprehensive talk Valley. on liberation of PoK, GB and violations of human rights in Balochistan, India has thrown a diplomatic gambit. The later course of relations between India

Ghulam Kashmir: India’s Diplomatic Gambit Imperatives for an Action-Oriented Policy Intervention 43 and Pakistan has led to a stalemate; which India must administered Kashmir”. Ghulam Kashmir has a total area of 13,297 not bother about. A comprehensive dialogue with square kilometres (5,134 sq. mi), with an estimated population of around 4.6 million people. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com Pakistan must include preconditions such as: cessation topic/pakistan-occupied-kashmir of cross-border terrorism by Pakistan aimed at Jammu 2 K C Singh, “How Legitimate Were Modi’s Recent Reference to and Kashmir; complete end of incitement to violence Balochistan?”, August 17, 2017, The Wire, http://thewire.in/67018/ kashmir-way-forward/ and terrorism from across the border in Pakistan; 3 Saba Muzaffer Nazki, “Kashmir’s Reckoning With the detention and prosecution of internationally recognised Implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”, The terrorist leaders residing on Pakistani soil and are Diplomat, March 12, 2017, www.thediplomat.com According to active towards fomenting trouble inside India in the author, the CPEC is an ambitious economic project between Pakistan and China that includes motorways, dams, hydropower Jammu and Kashmir; complete closure of terrorist projects, railways and pipelines. It connects Pakistan’s deep-see camps inside Pakistan; and handing over of those Gwadar Port with the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in terrorists who have taken shelter inside Pakistan after northwest China. The project is part of China’s larger initiative, committing crime on Indian soil. This has already been the OBOR, which is aimed at helping regional economic integration. 4 P. Stobdan, “The Need for Haste on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir: pointed out to Pakistan by India’s Foreign Secretary China Pakistan Economic Corridor Needs a Counter Strategy” S Jaishankar. This is the first thing that India must October 07, 2015, IDSA Policy Brief. impress upon Pakistani interlocutors in clear terms. 5 Ibid., no.2. 6 Prakhar Gupta, “Pakistan-China Hold Joint Border Patrols Near Secondly, the dialogue with Pakistan must start from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir” The Diplomat, July 23, 2016, setting a timeline for withdrawal of Pakistan from www.thediplomat.com PoK region. Fact remains that PoK is under an illegal 7 Ankit Panda, “Indian Army ‘Fire Assault’ Hits Pakistan Military occupation of Pakistan and the people in the region Outposts”, The Diplomat, October 31, 2016, www.thediplomat.com 19 soldiers lost their life in the attack on Uri outposts. are still not assimilated into the national mainstream 8 The UNSC Resolution number 47of 1948 envisaged three of Pakistan; rather are being mistreated and are victim sequential and conditional steps i.e. withdrawal of all Pakistani of discrimination and exploitation. Illegal occupation regular and irregular troops from the region to the satisfaction of of PoK must be put on top of the agenda on any the UN; thereafter, a reduction in the number of Indian troops to the minimum necessary for the maintenance of law and order; and Indo-Pak dialogue in future. then, a plebiscite under UN supervision. The resolution became irrelevant after Pakistan refused to take the first step—which was Thirdly, India rightly rejected the UNHCR mandatory for its implementation. 9 Sanjeev Tripathi, “India’s Assertiveness on Pakistani Occupied proposal for a visit to Kashmir Valley. Such Kashmir is Breath of Fresh Air”, The Wire international organizations should first visit PoK and , September 9, 2016 http://thewire.in/67018/kashmir-way-forward/ appraise Indian leadership about the violations of 10 It reads, “No person or political party in Azad Jammu and Human Rights being orchestrated by Pakistan through Kashmir shall be permitted to propagate against, or take part in activities prejudicial or detrimental to, the ideology of the State’s illegal occupation. Undoubtedly, Pakistan is the biggest accession to Pakistan.” criminal of violation of human rights on its own soil 11 Ibid., no.9. by virtue of becoming a manufacturing industry of 12 Ibid., no.9. 13 terrorists. Pakistan itself is also suffering on account PTI, “Rs.2000 crore to be Given by Government to Refugees from PoK”, August 28, 2016, http://thewire.in/67018/kashmir- of its own home-grown terrorism. Yet it is failing to way-forward/ learn any lesson out of it. Under given circumstance 14 Ibid., no.9. India needs to be cautiously and strongly pro-active 15 Shawn Snow, “Is India Capable of a Surgical Strike in Pakistan Controlled Kashmir?” The Diplomat, September 30, 2016, and gradually evolve a PoK and G-B policy as www.thediplomat.com This author claims that according to discussed above. Pakistani military the notion of surgical strike linked to alleged terrorists’ bases is an illusion being deliberately generated by India Footnotes to create false effects. It further claims that Surgical strikes can be conducted through airborne or artillery based precision guided 1 It is addressed by India a Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK) and as strikes or ground force based assaults; both of which require Azad Kashmir by Pakistan. PoK is also known as Azad Jammu and sophisticated intelligence collection, platforms to conduct Kashmir, AJK or Azad Kashmir, is an illegally occupied self- collections, and surveillance of target sites and objectives. India is governing administrative division of Pakistan. The territory lies still on the cusp of building a sophisticated and modernized west of the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir, and asymmetrical capability to conduct counter-terror operations, was previously part of the former princely state of Jammu and while much of its forces are still organized and trained on Cold War Kashmir, which ceased to exist as a result of the first Kashmir war models. fought between India and Pakistan. The territory shares a border 16 Ibid., no.9. with Gilgit-Baltistan, together with which it is referred to by the United Nations and other International organizations as “Pakistan- 44 World Focus July 2017 Prognosis of Kashmir Crisis: Hobsonean Choice? Dr. Gouri Sankar Nag and Dr. Sajal Basu

Kashmir crisis has undergone a dramatic of Naxalbari, otherwise a distant neglected hamlet change during the last two decades. The meaning near Darjeeling- border. It shows as if the Indian of azadi has changed considerably taking the state is under siege. form of religion. The different factions in Kashmir’s separatist movement have lost their hold Organized elitist violence and ideological in the wake of aggressive jihadi groups. The terrorism have its own way of dragging the community intrusion of stone pelters and martyrdom of back to primordial rule of atavism. The first author Kashmir terrorists have roused the emotion of the belonging to a generation of state sponsored terrorism masses of Kashmir. This paper is designed to show undertaken by ruling party goons and police could the difficulties that Indian government is having feel the memory-load of turbulent days in 2000s to respond to the duality of context; on one hand, marked by Singur, Nandigram and other popular it has to counter and negotiate with sections of movements symbolizing the fight against dispossession Kashmiri society and on the other hand, the of land thrown upon by the collusion of the then LF nefarious presence of Pakistan and moreover, government in West Bengal and corporate capital. radical Islamic connect now a day is building up Second author of this paper bear reminiscences of to transform the entire scenario, thus making the turbulent years of radical so-called revolutionary presence of army almost indispensable. This violence stalking over the state of West Bengal in predicament on the Indian side becomes all the 1967-71, 1975-76 and 2007-09. However, it is not more pronounced if we look at the other side— specific state-centric phenomenon of repression, the ties between Pakistan and Azad (Free) though looking back to history, we can say if Kashmir, the relative calm there, meaning thereby militaristic approach of sober-rattling in dealing with the marked absence of violence in the internal brewing political unrest was doctrinally developed politics of Kashmir lying under control of anywhere, it was Kashmir. Technically, central Pakistan. Does it mean failure of the India’s security forces viz. CRPF and the army are supposed Kashmir policy compared to Pakistan’s handling to work in aid of the police and civil administration in of relations with Azad Kashmir? We do not feel dealing with ‘law and order’ situations in the state. so, for we have to see interplay of many factors, “Yet, often these forces compete with each other for and how the situation has altered over time. achieving ‘nationalistic’ objectives—with the blessings Though we have offered a few suggestions of authorities in New Delhi.” Even the situation has breakthrough, yet we feel that any scheme for aggravated to such an extent that army has turned dialogue or interference for conflict resolution down state government’s plea for the removal of the remains far-fetched. Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and this is happening in spite of the fact that the Chief Minister The sober good boy image of Manchester of Jammu and Kashmir heads the Unified Command suicide bomber Salman Abedy or huge posthumous composed of the state police, the CRPF, army and popularity of Burhan Wani who has become the other central forces which are deployed in the state. symbol of Kashmir resistance movement, do not In this atmosphere of increasing and intensified explain why such introspective boys get transformed militarized control, the people of the valley have into narcissist killers in the theatre of terrorist witnessed how the local police have gradually turned exhibitionism. Recently, the Maoist terrorists of dozen as brutal (‘zaalim’) as the army. As a result when subtitled Naxalite groups have celebrated 50th people feel there is no public institution to register anniversary of Naxal movement at rural backwater their grievances and when Kashmiri youth in an

Prognosis of Kashmir Crisis: Hobsonean Choice? 45 average are stereotyped as terrorists, instead of being counter and negotiate with sections of Kashmiri treated with dignity, a severe/serious trust deficit must society and on the other hand, the nefarious presence be there to add to the continuing morass and psyche of Pakistan and moreover, radical Islamic connect of the people, who start putting the question what the now a day is building up to transform the entire state represents. scenario, thus making the presence of army almost indispensable. This predicament on the Indian side Granted, but to be candid can we say also becomes all the more pronounced if we look at the that the Indian radicals, liberal intellectuals behave other side—the ties between Pakistan and Azad like one-eyed deer, whether be it Maoist operation or (Free) Kashmir1 (the area under Pakistani influence), Kashmir militancy. Mr. V. Suresh, General Secretary the relative calm there, meaning thereby the marked of PUCL, after a spot visit to Kashmir, in a meeting absence of violence in the internal politics of Kashmir at Kolkata on 25th February, 2017 expressed dismay lying under control of Pakistan. Does it mean failure and concern over government’s disinterest in of the India’s Kashmir policy,2 ( See Indian Defense negotiated settlement. He held that Burhan Wani’s Review post on 2/6/17) compared to Pakistan’s ‘martyrdom’ triggered off militancy to assume a handling of relations with Azad Kashmir? We do not massive populist dimension. Kuldeep Nayar, veteran feel so, for we have to see interplay of many factors, commentator and close observer of Kashmir and how the situation has altered over time.The movement, has likewise specified aberrations of India illegitimacy of 7.5 lakh troops in a land of 7 million government such as misuse of Article 370, non- populations, allegation of torture and sodomisation of opening of Indian market to the Kashmiris, lack of students by the Indian military may sound reasonable. skill development measures etc.(Source: Dainik But what about the human rights of Indian soldiers Sanbad, Agartala dated 17th May, 2017). Similarly, who are kidnapped, beheaded, killed and often stone- there are scholars and human right activists like Nighat pelted? What about the Kashmiri Pundits who are Shafi Pandit who feels that ‘driven by a predominantly driven away from their land? security-based policy, the State has failed to recognize the deep anguish of the people and to put forth an Distance and isolation, two major executable socially-oriented agenda’. As she points geographical factors are likely to influence the Indian out there is ‘no time-bound programme for the mind which considers Kashmir to be a distant chronic rehabilitation of families affected by turmoil’ or as Indo-Pak dispute, or one of the outstanding issues her portrayal of the predicaments in the Valley during fuelling the dispute fanned by foreign powers. The the long spells of curfew in the summer of 2010 lays latest issue of One Belt One Road (OBOR) running bare what she had perceived and experienced: “hardly through Pakistan controlled Azad Kashmir will hardly any empathy was shown by the authorities for ensuring be considered an imperialistic design by the radicals uninterrupted supply of essential commodities, in India since China is there. The liberals and radicals especially medicines, milk and baby food. Even do not bother how the Kashmir separatist movement doctors, who were in possession of valid curfew has changed its mask from Insaniyat to Azadi to passes, were not allowed to report at their hospitals now Islamic . But this shift has not occurred in for duty...” (See Shafi’s article Wounds and Balms in a straightaway manner. Perhaps having lost hope the anthology entitled A Tangled Web Jammu and after the humiliating defeat in the 1971 India-Pakistan Kashmir, 2011, Harper Collins). In this State versus war that Pakistani state was no longer able to fend society tussle, the routine allegation of military excess for independent Kashmir there started a switch over and alienation of Kashmiri youth are symptomatic of in one important respect. That is to say, to counteract the mutual blame game. But all these seem to these negative Kashmiri perceptions out to turn sidetrack Indian army’s fantastic service to the towards more cogent alternative, Islamabad started inundated Kashmiri people two years back. to tighten its control over portions of Azad Kashmir. First it ‘put Gilgit and then Pakistan-administered This paper is therefore designed to show the Baltistan under its direct control. The incorporation difficulties that Indian government is having to respond of Hunza in 1974 further undermined hopes of a to the duality of context; on one hand, you have to special relationship spawned by the Kashmir

46 World Focus July 2017 Government Act promulgated the same year’ ( See a well-known Kashmiri separatist Hurriyat leader Riffat Hussain’s article Pakistan’s Relations with favours dialogue on conditions that India first accept Azad Kashmir and the Impact on Indo-Pakistani Kashmir’s disputed status. On the other hand, hailing Relations in Rafiq Dossani and Henry S. Rowen from the influential family of Mirwaiz Maulavi Farooq, edited Peace in South Asia, 2005, Orient the leader of the Awami Action Committee, his son BlackSwan). Also to be noted here that a part of old Umar Farooq, playing the role of spiritual leader of Jammu and Kashmir known as Aksai Chin was ceded Kashmiri Muslims, stands for peaceful negotiation by Pakistan to China in 1962 on the basis of a for the fulfillment the aspiration of the people of negotiated settlement between the two states. So, Kashmir. Yet another line of thought has been the talk of Pakistan maintaining special relationship advocated by . Belonging to Jammu vis-à-vis Aazad Jammu and Kashmir (hereafter AJK) Kashmir Liberation Front, which originally is nothing but cosmetic platitude, while the reality spearheaded armed militancy in the valley, Malik reveals the process of continuous political integration firmly believes in independent Kashmir. By now, of the areas of AJK into Pakistan. As Syed Rifaat however, all of them have been marginalized by Hussain of the department of Defense and Strategic leaderless groups and splinter factions of youth Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University of Islamabad terrorists who have no institutional arrangement with discusses the process that could be traced back to which to initiate talks. On the top of it, concerns keep late 1960s when mainstream parties of Pakistan like on multiplying from the fact that they are receiving Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party set up foreign funds. This ominous nexus has been its branch in Muzaffarabad in October 1967 and in reinforced time and again by the inputs gathered by the guise of introducing electoral politics in AJK, Indian intelligence from interrogation of captured Islamabad sought to co-opt the rising tide of Kashmiri terrorists. As Rana Banerji mentions in his article on nationalism. But while ‘this did not lead to a complete al Qaeda, Lashker-e-Taiba and Indian Terrorism in harmony of views’ General Zia ul Haq resorted to India’s National Security, 2014. According to another ploy. In April 1982 he nominated a three Banerji, finance comes through hawala from UAE, members Federal Majlis-e-Shura from the Northern and also via ISI funding mode. An Areas of AJK and publicly declared, “Kashmir has interesting revelation from Banerji’s article is the point been a disputed issue, but so far as the Northern Areas of rift in the organizations of hitherto pro-Kashmir are concerned, we do not accept them as disputed” terrorists based in Pakistan. As he avers from (Quoted from Rifaat Hussain’s article) . This well- Headley’s claim that in spite of efforts by Pakistan’s calculated stratagem enabled him to represent the ISI to contain this rift, many committed fighters from northern regions of Gilgit, Hunza and Skardu as several splinter groups were influenced to leave integral part of Pakistan. Not only that, “Ignoring Kashmir centric outfits and to join Taliban and many Muzaffarabad’s assertions, Islamabad announced a others reportedly opted to join up with recruits reform package for the Northern Areas in April 1994, volunteering to fight with Islamic State in Iraq the implementation of which turned this contested (Banerji’s article in Satish Kumar edited India’s territory into a de facto fifth province of Pakistan.” National Security, Routledge, 2014, p362).3 (Rifaat Hussain, ibid, p-120). So, what we intend to suggest is the need for a balanced view without which Does it mean less militancy in Indian we might mistakenly think that everything is going Kashmir or the prospect of our inching towards a well in AJK while the reality is diametrically opposite, peaceful settlement is going to brighten up? Till date i.e. blatant violation of the sovereignty of AJK plus the answer remains suspended as anxiety has taken Islamabad’s mischievous design to truncate the size heightened form with new angularities emerging from of the disputed territory and appropriating the portions the fast changing global setting. We have to appreciate of it thereby. at the generalized level that militant terrorism in every region and pocket has its own way to lead to reign of Now coming back to what is happening on organized terror by the state or socio-economic the Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir, we see quite hegemony of corporate interest, which are but two a different sheds of thought: , sides of the same coin. At this the usual victim has

Prognosis of Kashmir Crisis: Hobsonean Choice? 47 been democracy. In the terrorist affected areas where negotiation among these disparate groups? The stone almost invariably counter-terrorism of state held sway, pelters have no stake in any of these factions, neither the political space is preoccupied by rightist forces. any proposal or agenda for solution.4 This has been evidenced in Chattisgarh, Dantewada, and also Bastar. Kashmir terrorism seems to follow Sadly enough, India, it seems, awakened to the same route. the lurking risk of developing Jihadi dimension of the Kashmir knot at a much later stage. In fact, the field Distance and isolation tend to create some dynamics in Kashmir started changing with the Soviet sort of anomie in the national mind. Terrorist killings, military intervention of Afghanistan in December 1979 counter-killings become one type of exhibit or culminating in Moscow’s defeat in 1988. During the spectacle as found during war and famine. Very few course of Afghan resistance, Pakistan, which became people of India would object to negotiation and prime training ground of Mujahideen and served as a constructive dialogue. But with whom? As French conveyor-belt of covert American assistance, scholar Professor Olivier Roy puts it, ‘It is a cult of developed a nexus with Islamic militancy. To quote death, association of terrorism and jihadism with the Rifaat Hussain, “The Afghan jihad also accentuated pursuit of death. The fascination of death and brutal the role of Islam in Pakistan’s strategic culture, giving mass killing are found among the youth who join ISIS’ rise to the belief that the success of the Afghan jihad (Olivier Roy, Jihad and Death: Global Appeal of could be replicated elsewhere and it offered an option Islamic State, Hurst, 2017). The definition of Kashmir to bring an end to non-Muslim domination of the struggle has been changed. In the din raised by the Muslims. Thus, after the withdrawal of the Soviet separatist propaganda, truth never matters. The two forces from Afghanistan in 1989, Kashmir became women drowned accidentally may well be the new ‘Jihad’...”. “Backed by the ISI”, continues misconstrued as case of rape-murder by Indian Hussain, “these jihadi groups—prominent among military ( Rahul Pandita’s article Who Lost Kashmir, which were the Hizbul Mujahidin, the Al Badr Open magazine, 1 May, 2017). Hoisting of Pakistani Mujahideen, Harkat ul-Mujahedin, the Lashkar-i- flag has now been replaced by hoisting ISIS flag at Tayyiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed found a new different conflict prone areas of the valley since 2015. cause in Indian-administered Kashmir...Their Kashmir separatism now seeks rule of Allah. ‘The involvement in the Kashmiri Intifada transformed it insurgency is a fight for the implementation of Islam. from a domestic insurgency (conducted via the The struggle is about Shariat and Sahadat (i.e. Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front) into a low-intensity martyrdom) and Pakistani flag does not fall within conflict between India and Pakistan.” Besides, it is the pure realm of Shariat...because the Kalma has also very interesting to follow how cooked-up stories not been inscribed on it’. The Kalmah is the Islamic were intentionally floated to add fuel to inter-state testimony of Allah’s oneness and Mohammed’s feud by some of the sectarian organizations based in prophethood ( Naseer Geelani’s article Azadi means Pakistan as evident from journalist Luv Puri’s account many things, Open magazine, May 29, 2017). in his book Across the LOC: Inside Pakistan Administered Jammu and Kashmir (Penguin, Viking, Initially, the demand was to hold Referendum 2010). There he mentions, ‘the jihad in Kashmir is as per UN resolution. But the condition that before presented as a necessity by organizations like Jamat Referendum the Pakistan occupied territory to be ud Dawa to save Punjab’s agriculture. vacated was never considered. Then there was pro- organized a rally of farmers in Punjab province and Pakistani stance and camp-followers of independent alleged that India was in the process of constructing from India and Pakistan mould flowing inside the several dams on Chenab, Jhelum and Indus river in a movement. The latest trend, however, is drifting bid to completely stop flow of water towards towards precarious free for all situation. The Pakistan’. This was the height of lie which was even ideological fault-lines and paradoxes overlap with All contradicted by the Pakistani state by demonstrating Parties Hurriyat Conference, Muslim United Front, some maturity when admitting that it would be wrong JKLF, Peoples Conference, Hizbul Mujahideen etc. to blame India for Pakistan’s water scarcity for Who would arrange co-ordination and consensus for agriculture. Here a line of comparison of Pakistan’s

48 World Focus July 2017 policy to AJK with China’s OBOR seems pertinent. an anthology entitled A Tangled Web Jammu and As Bibek Debroy aptly puts in his post editorial A Kashmir, 2011, Harper Collins). Day by day, however, new lunatic express: OBOR projects are stacking the challenge became bigger since aggressive form the deck for Chinese enterprises and banks in ToI of Kashmiri nationalism tried to take centre stage of dated 2nd June 2, 2017 about areas of confusion state politics and thus put itself in an antagonistic hovering over the African economies centering on relationship with Indian nationalism. This evoked the modes of Chinese financing (grants or soft loans, not competing response of Jammu being “informed by very clear) for infrastructure. His line of argument an emphatic assertion of Indian nationalism as a means being, benefits would be reaped by the Chinese while of contestation of Kashmiri nationalism”( Chowdhary, costs of these projects are mostly to be borne ibid). internally by the African economies. So there is ample reason to believe that the OBOR is latest Chinese Not only this, but what is perhaps more ploy to export the hidden costs of its economic important in the realm of politics is the issue of expansion overseas. Similarly, Pakistan’s policy to representation in which despite Kashmir being AJK seems to be prompted by the compulsion of involved in exclusivity of identity and separatist politics, exporting its own domestic difficulties to Kashmir, it seeks to make claims for the entire state. It does the difficulties related to first, power conflict between not, however, mean there is no other identity but all military and political establishment in Pakistan, seem to be engulfed or sought to be engulfed secondly, festering economic crisis and thirdly, coercively by the ideologues of Kashmir separatism Kashmir policy also provides Pakistani state with riding rough shod over smaller ethnic groups, their much needed diversion strategy to focus away regional and sub-regional claims, ‘the claims of various attention from widespread deprivation of its people. kinds of displaced people, including the 1947-displaced If that is so, the question is why we are yet to develop from Pakistan-administered Kashmir, West Pakistan adequate policy line befitting to expose Pakistan and refugees, war-time border-displaced people and last achieve some sort of breakthrough in the current but not the least, displaced Kashmiri Pandits’. So, impasse or is there still a serious lacuna that we have the fix is what is to be done. On one side, separatism not thought of? No doubt, when we talk of Kashmir, is on the rise and taking on a dangerous jihadist turn actually we talk of tug of war between India and with IS connect of late transforming it into a far more Pakistan, hence requiring us to go beyond the myopic complicated realm where Al Qaeda in Indian Sub realist paradigm and to think deeply with inward- continent (AQIS) is likely to compete for influence looking approach. This is rising necessity because with the IS. On the other, if you divide the state of we have to appreciate also Jammu’s uneasy Jammu and Kashmir it would “bound to complicate relationship with the politics of Kashmiri identity and the situation further—for the simple reason that such its political discourse of azadi. So when “the roots of a division would unleash communal forces and instead the conflict lie in Kashmir, the solution cannot emerge of ethnic-regional divide between the Kashmir and unless an internal consensus within the state is evolved Jammu regions, it would end up being the religious and Jammu is involved in the process.” In this context divide between ‘Muslim’ Kashmir and ‘Hindu’ what Professor Rekha Chowdhary of the University Jammu. The communal fault line would be specially of Jammu comments seems extremely crucial for drawn in the Muslim-majority areas of the Jammu understanding competing identity structures anchored region—both the Doda belt as well as the Pounch- on local, regional and pan-Indian nationalisms. In her Rajouri belt. Already, there is an ongoing discourse, opinion, though initially the relationship between which seeks to simplistically deal with the issue of Jammu and Kashmir was not very problematic, yet political divergence by dividing the state on religious “the challenge was big enough—to respond to the lines and merging the Muslim-dominated areas of Kashmiri urge for distinct identity by providing the Jammu region with Kashmir. This would not only go special constitutional status for the state and at the against the plural ethos of the region as well as the same time to help produce the consent for this state, but would actually create a partition-like arrangement within the Jammu region” (Rekha situation, particularly in the areas, which are mixed Chowdhary’s article Caught in a Tangle published in

Prognosis of Kashmir Crisis: Hobsonean Choice? 49 and living harmoniously so far” ( Sammadar quoted on radical Islamic path. Besides, as colonel Jaibans by Rekha Chowdhary in her article). Singh has written in a recent piece entitled Nuances of Conflict Communication (the net version released This, we think, resembles a catch 22 situation. on June 2, 2017 in the website of It is because maintaining integrity of Jammu and www.indiandefencereview.com) that what is required Kashmir is important. Hence, accepting divergence in Kashmir at the moment is an understanding of of views and possible consensus need to be worked nuanced implications of “conflict communication” as out which stands on the precondition of dialogue, both a young Indian lieutenant Umar Fayaz was brutally internal and also with the representatives of AJK. lynched by the terrorists, not the blame game or media But in the condition of ongoing jihad against Indian sensationalism. state, possibility of any negotiated settlement is but a thin possibility, at times only to be initiated under the Endnotes: 1 It is inclusive of the Northern Area (the Gilgit, Baltistan and Diamont districts) administered by pressure of the US in particular, which feels Pakistan, spreading over 82,010 sq kilometres) with a population of 6-7 lakhs of people living in 645 villages and towns, which India does not recognize as part of Pakistan. According to India, it was part apprehensive that ‘a war between India and Pakistan of Jammu and Kashmir state by virtue of Maharaja Hari Singh ’s pact to accede in favour of India. might derail its military campaign against al-Qaeda 2 In a recent write up Nuances of Conflict Communication, Colonel Jaibans Singh has put similar questions like ‘is Kashmir slipping out of Indian control?’ etc which are causing considerable anxiety network in Afghanistan’ and further westward across the nation. However, Colonel Singh provides a well-meaning suggestion that there is no cause targeting Iran. The talk of war or more precisely for any panic. 3 Inputs are also pouring in about sources of financial assistance received by IS. As President Putin ‘limited war’ between India and Pakistan arises in a recent press meeting revealed that different Islamic state units are getting pecuniary assistance from 40 countries and there are some of the G20 members also. That money to the IS coffers is also coming because Pakistan’s traditional security dilemma vis- from illegal trade of oil and petroleum products from Syria has been confirmed by Iraqi intelligence and US sources. à-vis India has considerably eased after successful 4 Bartaman Patrika , second largest Bengali daily recently published a news claiming that the Bangladeshi boys are trained in different centres in south India viz. Chennai, Hyderabad and Bangalore to throw nuclear tests in 1998. So, now Pakistan can defend stones and to mount fidayan attacks on Indian army in Kashmir ( Bartaman Patrika dated June 2, 2017). 5. It is really surprising that the enlightened Muslims who could have registered their voice by virtue itself and moreover, it can go for proxy war relatively of their position and service in upper echelons of government and in private sector including business, with constructive suggestions have been almost missing from the scenario and keeping mum in spite successfully, in which the larger jihadi elements the of the fact many teenagers and youth of the valley were either victims of prolong conflict and clash between government and the separatists. less costly the conflict would be for Pakistan. As such, 6. According to the officials of Indian army, the term ‘misguided youth’ is misnomer because these youth receive payment for throwing stones at Indian military mobilization and modernizing our capabilities police and security forces. Not only that but these youth are confirmed jihadists who target Indian forces in Kashmir as an ‘army of occupation’ and hence to be thrown out. So, using the term ‘misguided from Indian viewpoint is becoming indispensable to youth’ is not appropriate because throwing stones at the security personnel is meant to kill the soldiers on duty. Hence, India’s army chief has likened the conflict situation in Kashmir as ‘dirty contain the unrest from time to time, albeit offering a war’ which has to be fought with innovative ways. This reaction came after there was widespread negative media propaganda when one major Gogoi tied a common man to an army jeep and used him temporary hedge at best, and even a cause of as human shield from stone throwers. However, some channels have maintained that the officer had responded to an SOS call from a section of paramilitary soldiers who found themselves surrounded by occasional rejoice for the political elite in New Delhi a violent mob. Hence to deter local youth from attacking his vehicle, he strapped a Kashmiri to the bonnet. Although this cannot be a fair justification for the act, it may be mentioned that the drawing as evident after the surgical strike in 2016, but with a room radicals who blame the Indian army for this act need to remember that using human shield was invented by the communists long before in the 1950s. Although there is a danger on both sides, since soulful realization that it is not a stable option, certainly Indian army might have to face tougher and more challenging battle ground in Kashmir as a result of sorting to human shield which means such tactics could come back as boomerang. Besides, army chief’s not a panacea. It is as fateful for India as it is for suggestion that it would been better to engage with the stone pelters, if they had taken to firing instead of throwing stones at security personnel. But according to Subir Bhaumik, former BBC correspondent Pakistan and broadly, south Asia that continues to from South Asia, Indian army should not commit such mistaken step as firing indiscriminately targeting slide down to the precipice of risk of military conflict at the masses on the road, one done by Pakistani army in 1971 war in the then east Pakistan because that could open a wider front of disproportionate opposition by bringing more crowd tilting the with no state but the hydra of Islamic militancy at balance against India. 7. Subir Bhaumik, former BBC correspondent from South Asia, opines that the present unrest in large, thus creating a bleak future for the inhabitants Kashmir is a homegrown agitation fuelled by heavy-handed counter-insurgency measures. No doubt, it is supported by Pakistan but it has a domestic base –but that is not realised by most and the nation caught up in the conundrum and unable, as a result, seems to be in exactly the kind of self denial that he thinks Pakistanis suffered in 1971. His suggestion is that we should not repeat the same mistakes of Pakistan. With regard to possibility of dialogue, his to access foreign investment and thus remain stuck take is that “if you can talk to Nagas, who have fought against India for 60 years, why cannot India talk to Kashmiris and negotiate a settlement on similar lines –shared sovereignty and all that—”. But in the groove of poverty and divisiveness. In this the real difficulty lies in as we have stated in the substantial part of the aforesaid article, in the condition of leaderless groups and splinter factions of youth terrorists who have no institutional arrangement specter of violence, interstate obduracy and clouds with which to initiate talks References (Books) of political uncertainty strongly hanging over the Bahl, Arvin, From Jinnah to Jihad Pakistan’s Kashmir Quest and the Limits of Realism, Atlantic, 2007. Dossani, Rafiq and Rowen, Henry S.(Ed), Peace in South Asia, Orient BlackSwan, 2005. horizon, perhaps a glimmer of hope could be by way Pande, Ira (Ed.), A Tangled Web Jammu & Kashmir, Harper Collins, 2011. 5 Puri, Luv, Across the LOC: Inside Pakistan Administered Jammu and Kashmir (Penguin, Viking, 2010. of devising strong pressure from civil society Roy, Olivier, Jihad and Death: Global Appeal of Islamic State, Hurst, 2017. including educated and enlightened sections of Muslim Periodicals: Open Magazine, September 5, 2016 issue, May 1, 2017 Issue & May 29, 2017 issue. community to urge the ‘misguided youth’6 of the Newspapers: Bartaman Patrika dated 2nd June, 2017. ‘over-Islamised valley’ to move away from the path Dainik Sanbad, Agartala, 17/05/2017. 7 Times of India dated 2nd June, 2017. of militancy in the interest of opening some channel Webpage: http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/nuances-ofconflict-communication-in-relation-to-kashmir/ of dialogue for that alone can set the ball rolling by accessed on June 3, 2017. http://www.anonews.co/isis-funded-g20/ accessed on June 3, 2017. allowing democratic mechanism to take precedence http://www.southasianmonitor.com/2017/06/04/losing-the-script-in-kashmir/ accessed on June 4, 2017.

50 World Focus July 2017 Turbulence in PoK: The China Factor Dr. Netajee Abhinandan

Kashmir, once again, is in turmoil. Peace and recognition. At the Summit, Xi proposed to invest eludes the state as large scale violence, killings, blasts additional 780 billion yuan as he called for greater and uprisings dominate the scene severely affecting cooperation for better economic gains and daily lives of the people. With the dramatic rise in connectivity. In his speech, Xi reiterated Beijing’s infiltration from across the border coupled with objectives for the Belt and Road initiative. internal resentment against some of the policies and actions of the ruling regime, Kashmir remains on the We will not follow the old way of geopolitical edge. The efforts of the Indian government, both games during the push for the Belt and Road political and military, have failed to restore peace and Initiative, but create a new model of win-win and normalcy in Kashmir. The situation is exacerbated cooperation. It will not form a small group by violence purported by the non-state actors and undermining stability, but is set to build a big terrorist organizations operating from Pakistan, family with harmonious co-existence. China’s supported by its military and intelligence agencies. construction of the Belt and Road Initiative is not On the other hand, massive unrest and antipathy of to make a new start, but to connect development people against Pakistani government in Pak occupied strategies of different countries and complement Kashmir (PoK) have led to internationalisation of the each other’s advantages ... China is willing to whole Kashmir problem. While India has never share its development experience with all the rest abdicated its claim over PoK, China’s intensive of the world, but we will not intervene into other investment in big infrastructural projects to create nation’s internal affairs, export our social system China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the and development model, nor force others to accept flagship of much touted ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) them. We will build an open platform, defend and initiative in this region raise serious concerns for Indian develop an open world economy, jointly create establishment. In this context, it is imperative to an environment good for opening-up and examine the strategic implications of OBOR, development, and push for a just, reasonable and especially the CPEC, for peace and stability in transparent international trade and investment Kashmir as well as India-Pakistan-China relations. system so that production materials can circulate orderly, be allocated with high efficiency and OBOR: Intensifying Connectivity or markets are deeply integrated.1 Hegemonic Expansion? OBOR is the most ambitious initiative undertaken by However, OBOR is not merely a connectivity China ostensibly to establish connectivity and project as proclaimed by China; rather it is a well cooperation by linking China to around sixty countries calculated strategy to expand its political influence of Asia, Europe and Africa though both land and sea across the continents, enhance its economic power routes. First announced by Chinese President Xi by massive investments and providing leverage to Jinping in 2013 during his visit to Kazakhstan, it has Chinese companies and establish itself as the since gathered momentum with nearly 70 countries unchallenged leader of both the globe and the process and organizations committing themselves to the mega of globalization. Though China consistently maintains infrastructural project. The recently concluded Belt that it does not aspire any kind of leadership position, and Road Summit in Beijing was attended by leaders analysts believe that through such a humongous and from 29 countries including the U.S. and Russia, as capital-intensive project, China wants to recast the well as the heads of the United Nations, International global political order putting itself at the helm. With a Monetary Fund and World Bank providing it legitimacy perceptible decline in American power and President

Turbulence in PoK: The China Factor 51 Trump’s inward-looking policy orientation, China is new roads, an 1,800-km railway line, a network of oil keen to make a leap forward to the top of global pipelines connecting Kashgar in China’s western political structure replacing the U.S. Xinjiang region to the port of Gwadar, along with an airport at the port, apart from a string of energy CPEC: The Issue of Sovereignty projects, special economic zones, dry ports and other India chose to boycott the OBOR Summit even as infrastructure.3 Though there is nothing new about the whole neighbourhood joined and hailed the Chinese Chinese assistance to Pakistan, its massive investment initiative, citing the issues of sovereignty and in and around Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) legitimacy over the proposed CPEC that would run makes India apprehensive about the probable through PoK. India has taken the stand that it cannot encirclement of its territory by the Sino-Pakistan be part of such an initiative unless the issue of alliance. Despite China’s claims that the project is sovereignty is sorted out on those areas of PoK commercial in nature, its potential for intelligence through which CPEC would traverse. For India, gathering and the forward deployment of its naval CPEC, the most important section of OBOR, assets in the Gwadar and Karachi ports makes India threatens its territorial integrity and sovereignty. uncomfortable. India quite reasonably believes that Making India’s position clear, Indian foreign ministry China’s presence in PoK would adversely affect and spokesman Gopal Baglay said in the official statement: further complicate the process of border negotiations.4 India is deeply concerned about Chinese moves as it Regarding the so-called ‘China-Pakistan spells a strategic nexus between China and Pakistan Economic Corridor’, which is being projected as against Indian interests in the region. India fears that the flagship project of the BRI/OBOR, the in the event of another conflict with China, the ongoing international community is well aware of India’s infrastructure projects undertaken by the Chinese position. No country can accept a project that military and nuclear establishments in Pakistan ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and Occupied Gilgit-Baltistan region may become territorial integrity”... “Connectivity initiatives strategically important to the Chinese army; especially, must follow principles of financial responsibility the Karakorum Highway could be useful for China to avoid projects that would create unsustainable as an overland route for moving missiles and spare debt burden for communities; balanced ecological parts to Pakistan. Also, China’s aggressive pursuance and environmental protection and preservation of CPEC despite protests from India signals a standards; transparent assessment of project discernible shift in its attitude towards the Kashmir costs; and skill and technology transfer to help issue as it intends to provide international legitimacy long term running and maintenance of the assets to Pakistani claims through this project. “This may created by local communities.2 mark a nuanced Chinese position on Kashmir implying a dilution of China’s past stand of accepting Kashmir India which regards the whole of Jammu & as a de-facto part of India, while at the same time Kashmir as its integral part does not wish to treating POK including Gilgit-Baltistan region as de- compromise even at the cost of being seen as facto and de-jure parts of Pakistan”. 5 Thus, India isolationist. On the other hand, China, instead of rightfully feels that China’s growing economic and addressing Indian concerns, chooses to support geo-political involvement in PoK along with its Pakistan’s position to fulfil its own strategic interests. continuous military support to Pakistan would As per the CPEC plan details, the Chinese inevitably create serious problems and undermine its government and banks will give loans to Chinese interests in the long term. India’s refusal to join OBOR companies for investing $15.5 billion in coal, wind, and the continuation of CPEC would not only affect solar and hydropower projects, that would come on- India- Pakistan-China trilateral relations but political line by 2017, and help Pakistan to add 10,400 MW of atmosphere in South Asia also. electricity to its national grid. Expected to ease Pakistan’s energy shortages by covering both PoK: The Internal Resentment generation and transmission, the $75 billion CPEC, It is not India alone in raising alarm over CPEC; the which is to become operational by 2020, entails building people of PoK are also strongly against the project.

52 World Focus July 2017 There have been massive protests on the streets of as part of Pakistan.10 China, until then, had maintained Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan region against that J&K was a bilateral problem that should be atrocities of Pakistani government and also the China- resolved through dialogue between India and Pakistan. Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which they said The shift in Chinese approach-legitimizing Gilgit- would only benefit China and Pakistan’s Punjabi Baltistan as part of Pakistan- generates problems for traders. The protesters allege that CPEC does not India. India believes that CPEC, originating in Gilgit- involve local people, especially the youth, and Baltistan, would eventually strengthen Pakistan’s Pakistan, backed by China, is inflicting massive human claim and control over this region. The Indian rights abuses to crush the political aspirations of the government’s official response to CPEC came through people of Gilgit. Over 500 young Gilgitis have been the reply to a specific query in Lok Sabha in jailed, including Gilgit’s top political activist Baba Jan, December 2014 by Minister for External Affairs which saw increasing mass street-based movement : for his release. 6 The people of Gilgit-Baltistan believe that the CPEC will exploit its water resources which Government is aware that China is involved in would only benefit Pakistan. They are also worried the construction of or assistance to infrastructure about the growing Chinese influence in the region.7 projects in our neighborhood including in Sri The Gilgit-Baltistan based Awami Action Committee Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar; hydroelectric (AAC), an alliance of around 23 religious, nationalist and IT projects in Nepal; IT and housing and political groups, has been demanding withdrawal construction projects in ; hydroelectric of Pakistani security forces and rollbacks of the & nuclear projects, highways, motorways, export CPEC. It is also against the lack of share for Gilgit- processing zones and economic corridors in Baltistan in the CPEC. Pakistan. Government has seen reports with regard to China and Pakistan being involved in Not only in Gilgit-Baltistan, people are up in infrastructure building activities in Pakistan arms against Chinese presence and CPEC in Sindh Occupied Kashmir (POK), including construction also that passes through it. Jeay Sindh Muttahida of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Mahaz (JSMM), a Sindh-based nationalist party, has Government has conveyed its concerns to China been opposing the CPEC terming it as “trigger of about their activities in Pakistan Occupied international conflicts and in the Kashmir, and asked them to cease such activities.11 region and strategic military design of Chinese aggression over the Indian ocean.”8 Pakistan’s In 2015 China and India sought strategic control over the strategically important region has realignments, not only to secure their own interests, been used to keep India circumscribed in limited but also to contain each other’s influence and power. geopolitical sphere. The territory swap, building of Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan in April the Karakoram Highway and Chinese infrastructure 2015 and pledged to invest $46 billion- almost double intrusion in parts of PoK are meant not only to the amount he proposed for India- for developing the strengthen China-Pakistan partnership but to encircle China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In the India also. Apart from massive economic and military Gilgit-Baltistan segment, the CPEC project design support to Pakistan, China’s wanton disregard of includes a major expansion of the Karakoram India’s concerns, its veto against moves to designate Highway, establishing industrial parks in special terrorists like Maulana Masood Azhar at the UN and economic zones, constructing hydropower projects, blockade of India’s entry into the NSG indicate a railway line and road building. The project also entails belligerence towards India. 9 building hydropower projects and motorways/ highways in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir The Indian Response (AJK). Moreover, the Gwadar port, overlooking one Before the start of the CPEC, in December 2014, of the world’s busiest shipping lanes in the Arabian the Chinese state-run Xinhua published a statement Sea, has been leased to Beijing for 40 years. New announcing the closure of the strategic Khunjerab Delhi fears that the port would be used as a naval Pass and in the process referred to Gilgit-Baltistan outpost by China, thereby threatening India’s energy

Turbulence in PoK: The China Factor 53 and economic security, as more than two thirds of importance of the project for China and Pakistan, India’s petroleum imports pass through the area. mere protests by India will not deter them from Though India is yet to come out a comprehensive carrying forward it. India has to recalibrate its response to the CPEC, Prime Minister Narendra Modi approach and come out with well thought out strategic made it clear that it won’t be a mute spectator to the response that would force China to accommodate its affairs unfolding in PoK in a statement issued on 13 concerns. August, 2015: Footnotes Pakistan forgets that it bombs its own citizens using 1 Full Text of President Xi’s speech at opening of fighter planes. The time has come when Pakistan Belt and Road forum , 16 May, 2017 available at http:/ shall have to answer to the world for the atrocities /news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/14/ committed by it against people in Balochistan and c_136282982.htm K-P.12 2 “India to boycott China’s OBOR summit, says CPEC ignores its territorial integrity“, Times of India Again during his Independence Day speech , 13 May, 2017. on 15 August in 2015, he reiterated India’s support to 4 Zofeen T Ebrahim, ‘“China’s New Silk Road: What the people of PoK; first for any Prime Minister. It ’s in it for Pakistan?”’, Dawn, April 20, 2015, at http:/ was not only a direct warning to Pakistan, but a subtle /www.dawn.com/news/1177116 notice to China also. On 17 January, 2017, speaking at 5 D.S. Rajan, “China: President Xi Jinping’s South a seminar in New Delhi, Prime Minister said: “Only Asia policy- Implications for India“, South Asia by respecting the sovereignty of countries involved, Analysis Group at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/ can regional connectivity corridors fulfil their promise node/1763 and avoid differences and discord”. 13India’s 6 http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-in-pok-s- opposition to CPEC was reaffirmed by Foreign gilgit-protesters-raise-anti-pakistan-slogans-demand- Secretary, S.Jaishankar, two days later: removal-of-army-2244482 7 “PoK Protesters Against China-Pakistan Economic We expect they respect other people’s sovereignty. Corridor To Be Charged Under Anti-Terrorism Laws The CPEC passes through a territory that we see “, 19 August, 2016, India Defense News at http:// as our territory. Surely people will understand www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/08/pok-protesters- what [the] Indian reaction is. There needs to be against-china-pakistan.html some reflection and I am sorry to say that we have 8 “Anti-China protests in Sindh to oppose economic not seen signs of that.14 corridor“, Hindustan Times, 19 January, 2017. 9 Priyanka Singh, “CPEC A Misnomer: India must India’s opposition to CPEC reflects its Rename It”, The Pioneer, 18 June, 2017 concern over the internationalisation of the Kashmir 10 “Khunjerab Pass closes for winter season,” Xinhua dispute and the growing influence of China in the , December 2, 2014, athttp://news.xinhuanet.com/ Indian Ocean. english/china/2014-12/02/c_133828478.htm. 11 http://www.mea.gov.in/lok-sabha.htm?dtl/24458/ The Road Ahead QNO260PROJECTS+OF+CHINA+AND+PAKISTAN+IN+ CPEC is the most important component of OBOR NEIGHBOURING+COUNTRIES that would immensely boost China’s exports and 12 “Modi spoke India’s mind over CPEC“, The provide the much needed fillip to Chinese companies Express Tribune, 20 August, 2016 by linking Western China to Middle East and Central 13 “Does the China-Pakistan economic corridor worry Asia. For Pakistan also, the corridor would generate India?”, Aljazeera News at http:// huge benefits as the combined value of the CPEC’s www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/02/china- infrastructure projects would be equivalent to 17 pakistan-economic-corridor-worry-india- percent of Pakistan’s GDP creating around 700,000 170208063418124.html direct jobs between 2015 and 2030 and add up to 2.5 14 Ibid percent to the country’s growth rate. Considering the

54 World Focus July 2017 India, PoK and CPEC: Narrowing the ‘Corridor’ of Indo-Pakistan Relations Dr. Mohor Chakraborty

India’s reservations to the CPEC since its these components, the 21st Century MSR is the initiation by Beijing as an integral part of OBOR maritime counterpart of the over-land SREB (renamed B&RI) did not come as a great surprise to envisioned to be established along the Eurasian land the international community, overridden by New corridor from the Pacific coast to the Baltic Sea. On Delhi’s concerns over sovereignty with respect to the whole, the extensive domain of the B&R the Corridor passing through PoK. The recent boycott architecture runs through the continents of Asia, of the Inaugural B&RI Forum by India substantiated Europe and Africa, connecting the vibrant East Asian its sustained and unwavering posture on the issue. economic circle at one end and the European While the ambience is charged with arguments economic circle at the other. While the SREB focuses weighing New Delhi’s decision to boycott the Forum, on bringing together China, Central Asia, Russia and it indeed represents its assertive, nationalist posture. Europe (the Baltic) linking China with the Persian The CPEC, prima facie, is a developmental project, Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia embarked upon by China, with an astounding and West Asia and connecting China with Southeast investment in establishing a network of roads, ports, Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean, the 21st dams and special economic zones, in Pakistan. Century MSR is designed to take off from China’s However, it has been interpreted in several informed coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the circuits as a blueprint for establishing Chinese Indian Ocean, in one route, and from China’s coast hegemony by pouring in capital, labour and technology through the South China Sea to the South Pacific, in in a developing country. As present circumstances the other. Served by a network of roads, high-speed reveal, India will be viewing this grand Chinese project railways, fibre-optical lines, transcontinental as a dubious facade for augmenting its influence and submarine optical cable projects and satellite hegemony, notwithstanding Beijing’s arguments and information passageways, the initiative is poised to statements, to the contrary. shift the centre of geo-economic power towards Eurasia. Beijing calculates that the mega-trade Four years following the announcement of volumes among the Silk Road economies would reach its grand One Belt, One Road Project (rechristened a tune of US$ 2.5 trillion over the next decade.1 Belt and Road Initiative/B&RI), China took the centre-stage, playing host to representatives from 130 It really did not come as a great surprise to countries, more than half of which (about 68) have the international community, when India, a non- embarked on the project, at the inaugural B&R signatory of B&RI did not have any representation Summit/Forum for International Cooperation held in at the just-concluded B&RI Forum for International Beijing on 14-15 May 2017. India is the only country Cooperation, since it has serious reservations to the in South Asia which has not signed any agreement flagship programme and the most advanced pertaining to the Chinese President, Xi Jinping’s component of the initiative – US$ 54 billion worth ambitious OBOR project. The project, manifesting a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – passing revival of the ancient Chinese trade routes, known through Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as “Silk Road”, which stretched from the then Chinese (PoK) and connecting Xinjiang to the Gwadar port in capital Xi’an to Rome, includes four broad Balochistan via PoK, giving Beijing maritime access components: Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB); the to West Asia and Africa substantially by almost 2000 Maritime Silk Road (MSR); the Asian Infrastructure miles and vice versa. Geographically speaking, it will Investment Bank (AIIB); and the Bangladesh China stretch from the Western Chinese city of Kashgar in India Myanmar/BCIM-Economic Corridor. Among the Xinjiang province to the port of Gwadar, thus India, PoK and CPEC: Narrowing the ‘Corridor’ of Indo-Pakistan Relations 55 providing China an access to the Arabian Sea barely Balochistan. On operationalisation, the Gwadar Port 600 km east of the Strait of Hormuz, through which is expected to transport roughly one million tons of about 35% of the world’s oil shipments passes. While cargo (by 2017). Gwadar is positioned as the direct the ambience is charged with arguments weighing hinterland connecting Balochistan and Afghanistan. New Delhi’s decision to boycott the Forum, it indeed As a CPEC entrepot, the plan recommends that it be represents its assertive, nationalist posture. Given this built into a base of heavy and chemical industries, backdrop, the article will analyse India’s response to such as iron and steel/petrochemical. The ground CPEC and the counter-responses of China and breaking of Gwadar International Airport (GIA) and Pakistan on the same. Eastbay Expressway is also scheduled to take place soon. GIA is a US$ 260 million project with the CPEC: Its Components and Implications for capacity to handle some of the world’s largest Pakistan’s Political Economy airplanes, while the Expressway is expected to at The CPEC component of China’s grandiose B&RI least have three routes linking Gwadar with the rest “envisages a deep and broad-based penetration of of Pakistan. most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture”, Secondly, on the energy front, around 21 apparently throwing open an unprecedented scope projects (worth US$ 33.7 bi) have been identified to “in Pakistan’s history”. In the areas of interest help the energy needs of the Corridor along with up- contained in the plan, it appears that access to the gradation of the ailing power sector of Pakistan. The full supply chain of the agrarian economy is a top energy project entails the construction of Diamer priority for the Chinese. This is followed by the Bhasha Dam and Dassu Dam (4500MW) with PKR capacity of the textile spinning sector to serve the (Pakistan Rupee) 100 billion spent in land acquisition raw material needs of Xinjiang, and the garment and for Bhasha Dam. Krote Hydro project (720MW) and value added sector to absorb Chinese technology. The Sukhi Kinaro Hydro Poject (870MW) are also in the third priority is the growing domestic market, pipeline for 2018 in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. 3600MW particularly in cement and household appliances, will be produced by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by which receives detailed treatment in the plan. Finally, 2017, whereas nuclear power plants are being through greater financial integration, the plan seeks upgraded to produce 2200MW. Renewable energy to advance the internationalization of the Renminbi projects are in the offing with 500MW to be reaped (RMB), as well as diversify the risks faced by from wind and another 1000MW from solar power, Chinese enterprises entering Pakistan. 2 Far more than particularly in Quaid-e-Azam solar part from a transit route, US$ 27 billion worth of CPEC Bahawalpur, towards which, around US$ 3 billion has resources are, in fact, allocated to undertake eighteen been allocated to augment power distribution. On the power projects. The other half of the total US$ 54 transport and infrastructure front, many projects are billion goes beyond support for the Gwadar port on the fast track, including the enhancement of complex and will include the engineering of four Karakoram Highway: 335 km section between national trunk highways, overhaul or construction of Khunjerab to Raikot has been upgraded and 59 km three mainline railways, the start of a metro system section of Hazara motorway between Burhan and in Lahore and a cross-country pipeline. Havelian is expected to be completed by the end of 2017. The immensely important Western route According to the Pakistan Board of (Havelian-Gwadar) has been inaugurated. Two key Investment, the main components of the corridor are: projects include Zhob-Mughal Kot section of the Dera Gwadar (Port, City and Gwadar region’s socio- Ismail Khan–Qilla Saifullah Highway (N50) and the economic development); Energy (coal, hydel, wind, Qilla Saifullah–Waigam Rud Road section of the solar, LNG, transmission); Transport infrastructure Multan-Dera Ghazi Khan-Qilla Saifullah Highway (road, railways, aviation); and Information Technology (N70), while work is expected to commence on the (IT). To begin with, the Gwadar Port free zone was eastern route on 120 km section of Karakoram inaugurated in April 2016 by the Chinese highlighting Highway II between Thakot and Havelian and a 392 the immense trading potential of Gwadar and largely, km section of Lahore–Karachi motorway between

56 World Focus July 2017 Multan and Sukkur, for which, approximately US$ impending acquisition of K Electric demonstrates. 4.2 billion concessionary loan package has been Furthermore, the installation of “safe city” approved by the Chinese Parliament. Pakistan surveillance facilities from Peshawar to Karachi with Railways is also getting a lifeline with a sum of US$ 24-hour recording of roads and markets and fibre- 8.5 billion being pumped in for the ailing sector. The optic cables not only for the Internet, but also for existing mainline; Karachi-Peshawar and Taxila- television programmes which will be engaged in Havelian (ML-1 – 1872 km long will be upgraded), “disseminating Chinese culture”, will naturally new dry port at Havelian is planned to be completed facilitate its pervasiveness in Pakistan. One of the by 2020, laying another track to make two tracks oldest priorities for the Chinese government since talks between Shandara-Peshawar. A new track is also on CPEC began is fibre-optic connectivity between planned from Gwadar-Quetta and Jacobabad via China and Pakistan. A Memorandum of Besima. Similarly other projects are under way which Understanding (MoU) for such a link was signed in will ultimately link Gwadar with Khunjerab by 2030. July 2013, at a time when CPEC appeared to be little CPEC provides avenues of regional integration among more than a road link between Kashgar and Gwadar. Pakistan, China and central Asian countries, within But the plan reveals that the link goes far beyond a the framework of which, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline simple fibre-optic set up. In this domain, the expanded project has attracted US$ 7 billion, in addition to the bandwidth that will open up will enable terrestrial prospects of a Chinese company laying the Gwadar- broadcast of digital HD television, called Digital Nawabshah pipeline and setting up a LNG terminal Television Terrestrial Multimedia Broadcasting at Gwadar. Besides, an important domain of CPEC (DTMB), is envisioned as more than just a is the development of Information Technology technological contribution. It is a “cultural transmission infrastructure, with proposals to lay US$ 44 million - carrier”.4 Summarily then, the CPEC architecture is 820 km long optical fibre from Khunjerab to not only grand by Chinese investment standards, but Rawalpindi, which would act as an alternative also all-encompassing and pervasive, with undeniable communication route between Pakistan and China. 3 implications for Pakistan’s socio-economic and political economy scaffold. The CPEC, prima facie, is a developmental project, embarked upon by China, with an astounding CPEC: India’s Reservations and Response investment in establishing a network of roads, ports, The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s speech dams and special economic zones, in Pakistan. at Udhampur, delivered after the inauguration the However, it has been interpreted in several informed Chenani-Nashri tunnel in April 2017, clearly and circuits as a blueprint for establishing Chinese candidly demonstrated his answer to CPEC (of course hegemony by pouring in capital, labour and technology without directly referring to it). Describing it as “not in a developing country. The socio-political network of roads”, but “network of hearts”, he implications of such a massive undertaking are pledged that the tunnel would evolve as the precursor immense with thousands of acres of agricultural land of a matchless development in Jammu and Kashmir, leased to Chinese enterprises for projects relating to which would, in turn, make the people of PoK rue seeds, irrigation, fertilizer, processing units for fruits, their plight under Islamabad and realize “how they vegetables, fish, meat and grain along with storage are missing development under Pakistan”.5 In his and transport systems. For instance, two dams to be message, Modi made an unmistakeable commitment built in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, displacing an to take the Himalayan state to new heights by estimated 28,000 people and submerging important employing a strategy of hard work and vision that archaeological sites has severe ecological implications would be a marvel and wonder for the people on the for Pakistan. Besides, the political implications of the other side of the border. Underscoring “development” same are by no means less significant, since the Gilgit- as “our mantra” for changing “the destiny of the Baltistan region is within Indian territory (PoK). It is people”, he not only provided his “development- discernible that the entry of Chinese firms will not be driven” submission to the clamour in some quarters limited to the CPEC framework alone, as the recent that India should join the CPEC to harvest benefits acquisition of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, and the for Jammu and Kashmir and the rest of the country,

India, PoK and CPEC: Narrowing the ‘Corridor’ of Indo-Pakistan Relations 57 but also conveyed that India would not legitimise any Finally, though it is true that while in the short and violation of the international rules in the territory that medium terms, CPEC could be an opportunity to legally and historically belongs to it. He refused to generate jobs and growth in Pakistan, over the longer fall for the bait that India should not object to the term, its strategic consequences could reshape the CPEC and its passing through Gilgit-Baltistan, and regional balance of power in favour of China and instead be a partner and draw the necessary benefits.6 limit India’s geopolitical reach. The assertiveness and The Ministry of External Affairs, issued a swiftness of Chinese actions in the South China Sea comprehensive statement on its objections to the have generated a perception in Indian diplomatic circle B&RI, which were three-fold: first, the Initiative that China’s gaining of a foothold in the Arabian Sea includes projects in land belonging to India; secondly, and, as an extension, in the Indian Ocean through the projects could push smaller countries on the road Gwadar, might make national interest claims in India’s into a crushing debt cycle, destroy the ecology and maritime sphere too, since if Gwadar grows to be the disrupt local communities; and finally, China’s agenda port China envisions it to become, it will need to take was unclear, with the implied accusation that this on a more engaging, direct or indirect security role in Initiative was more about enhancing its regional the region.9 political influence, rather than simply being its physical networks. 7 Following up New Delhi’s resistance to the CPEC, Swaraj, in course of her Raisina Dialogue India’s principal objection stems from the address in March 2016, reiterated that connectivity CPEC’s geographical stretch, connecting China’s is not just “key to India’s development ambitions but Xinjiang province with Pakistan’s Gwadar port an important and integral aspect of its vision for through Gilgit-Baltistan (in PoK), and ever since the international cooperation. It will drive our interests announcement of the CPEC, India has been and relationships in Asia and beyond. We bring to extremely vocal about its concerns, highlighted bear a cooperative rather than unilateral approach successively during the Indian Minister of External and believe that creating an environment of trust and Affairs, Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Beijing in February confidence is the pre-requisite for a more inter- 2015, Narendra Modi’s visit to China in May 2015, connected world.”10 Her statement clearly reflected followed by the raising of the issue by Swaraj at the India’s perception of B&RI as a ‘unilateral’ or a United Nations-General Assembly in October. Swaraj, ‘national’ initiative of China, with a limited role of in course of her official sojourn to Beijing, set the other participating countries in shaping the priorities stage for some serious heavy-lifting along a complex of the connectivity projects. Subsequently, Narendra geo-political spectrum, when she conveyed that the Modi, during his meeting with Xi Jinping on the project should be “synergy based. It cannot be a sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Hangzhou in blanket end (on the Indian side). We want our September 2016, voiced India’s sensitivities vis-a-vis connectivity.”8 The CPEC is believed to suffer from the CPEC, given the fact of its passing through PoK a factual and conceptual objection in India: while the as well as the threat of terrorism “emanating from former pertains to India skirting the internationalisation the region”, further exhorting the Chinese President of the Kashmir dispute and the concern that China, to be “sensitive” to each other’s strategic interests. which has been neutral on Kashmir since 1963, can Towards this end, while asserting that fight against no longer be so now that its economic and security terror should not be motivated by “political interests in these territories are growing in stake, the considerations”, Modi underscored the “paramount latter stems from the strategic consideration that importance” and imperative of respecting “each CPEC allows China to gain a toehold in the Indian other’s aspirations, concerns and strategic interests” Ocean through direct access to the Arabian Sea. In to ensure durable bilateral ties. He also made it clear any case, India would not want a mediating role for that the promotion of positive convergence at the China in these disputes. Besides, New Delhi is bilateral and wider regional levels, called for the need concerned about China using Gwadar port to observe to prevent the growth of negative perception by both and even pry on Indian naval activity and possibly countries.11 Furthermore, Indian Foreign Secretary, even exploit it for an expansion of its naval presence. S. Jaishankar’s contention that China has not been

58 World Focus July 2017 sensitive about India’s sovereignty and did not consult position on Kashmir. On the question of Pakistan’s New Delhi on the CPEC project before its reported plans to turn Gilgit-Baltistan into a province, commencement, was significant. He argued in this in order to tighten its administrative grip, with regard, “China is a country which is very sensitive on suggestions of integrating the region into Pakistan’s matters concerning its sovereignty… so we would federal structure, the Chinese Foreign Ministry expect that they would have some understanding of clarified that, “The essence of your question is about other people’s sensitivity about their sovereignty. the Kashmir issue. China’s position is consistent and CPEC passes through a piece of land, which we call clear cut. We believe it is an issue left over from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which is a territory that history and should be resolved between the two sides belongs to India and is illegally occupied by Pakistan. in dialogue and consultation in a proper manner. The So, the fact that such a project has been initiated China Pakistan Economic Corridor won’t affect without consultation with India, I would imagine, China’s position on the relevant issue.” It further people will understand what the Indian reaction to added that the CPEC is a “purely commercial” that would be. So I think in approaching the CPEC, venture “devised for long term development and there needs to be some reflection on how a country cooperation in various fields”, significant for fostering like India would see… would feel… I am sorry to regional connectivity, trade cooperation, regional say that we have not seen signs of that so far.”12 peace and development. Furthermore, it was “without Soon after, in February 2017, India clarified that it prejudice” to its views on the disputed status of PoK, could neither join the project nor attend the Inaugural which was for India and Pakistan to resolve. 15 B&R Forum (May 2017), since the B&RI map Incidentally, this official clarification has been indicated Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan as part of the contradictory to its objections of exploration projects CPEC. 13 in the disputed South China Sea, clearly pointing to Beijing’s unequal standards on sovereignty issue. On Such a candid and sharp response by the its part, while reiterating the Indian view of the need Foreign Secretary followed Narendra Modi’s more to show sensitivity and respect for each other’s core caustic and direct assertion, in course of his first concerns and interests towards managing bilateral public reference to China’s ambitious B&RI, relations and regional peace and developmental highlighting that while India did “appreciate the aspirations, Beijing expressed commitment to properly compelling logic of regional connectivity for peace, managing existing differences with India and resolving progress and prosperity”, it was averse to the concept them through friendly consultation. Summarily then, of connectivity in itself overriding or undermining the Beijing’s defence of the CPEC as a “purely sovereignty of other nations. He further added that, commercial” project does not address the sensitivities “Only by respecting the sovereignty of countries of New Delhi. It is through CPEC in particular and involved can regional connectivity corridors fulfil their B&RI in general, that China is broadening its regional promise and avoid differences and discord,” thereby footprint and intensifying its politico-strategic and questioning the very basis on which the CPEC was economic engagements, both in India’s immediate hinged. While on the one hand, he conceded that, it neighbourhood and in PoK. was “not unnatural for two large neighbouring powers to have some differences”, he simultaneously argued, In keeping with the Chinese perspective, “In the management of our relationship, and for peace Pakistan’s dismissal of India’s objections to CPEC and progress in the region, both our countries need to was quite expected. Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar, while show sensitivity and respect for each other’s core tagging India’s reaction as “unnecessary”, expressed concerns and interests.”14 in no uncertain terms that such protests amounted to “intervention” in Pakistan’s internal affairs as well CPEC: Counter-responses of China and as in a project attempted to “promote connectivity Pakistan and reach out to all the neighbouring countries.” He In a rejoinder to the Indian view on the CPEC, China further negated the sharp reaction on New Delhi’s added that it was a development-induced project part, citing the benefits of the CPEC, intended to neither directed at a “third country”, nor affecting its foster greater regional connectivity and the

India, PoK and CPEC: Narrowing the ‘Corridor’ of Indo-Pakistan Relations 59 developmental imprint it is expected to have on the technology transfer to help long term running and region as a whole. He expressed doubt regarding the maintenance of the assets created by local Indian perspective of its national security being communities,”18 thereby reiterating New Delhi’s threatened and its consideration of sabotage through commitment to anchoring connectivity initiatives on proxy conflict. On the contrary, he argued that the universally recognised international norms, good CPEC fosters restraint and discourages provocation governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and by Pakistan due to the gain in national ego from equality. India’s boycott of the B&RI Forum was also greater achievement and material development.16 In an endorsement of its reservations to the CPEC, this context, it is significant to refer to the Pakistani based on its core consideration of sovereignty, since Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif’s veiled swipe at New it passes through PoK, with major geo-strategic Delhi’s objection, arguing that the multi-billion dollar implications for national security regarding the Indian CPEC was an economic project open to all the nations concern whether it might influence the disputed in the region and it “must not be politicised”. He added Kashmir region. Finally, though China’s enhanced in this regard, “Let me make it very clear that CPEC geo-economic and geo-strategic leverage in the region is an economic undertaking open to all countries in may be an acceptable and welcome initiative for its the region. It has no geographical boundaries. It must all-weather ally and other regional countries, as not be politicised. It is time we transcend our present circumstances reveal, India will be maintaining differences, resolve conflicts through diplomacy and its stoicism on this grand Chinese “project of the leave legacy of peace for future generations.”17 century” as a dubious facade for augmenting its influence and hegemony, notwithstanding Beijing’s Conclusion arguments and statements, to the contrary. Under the given circumstances, amidst debates over whether it has been prudent for India to boycott the Footnotes 1 “Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Inaugural B&RI Forum, held in the Chinese capital Silk Road”, 28 March 2015, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, with State on 14-15 May 2017, Gopal Baglay, the official Council Authorization, http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201503/t20150330_669367.html spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (accessed on 12 May 2017) 2 Khurram Husain, “Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed”, The Dawn, 18 May 2017, argued in his statement: “Regarding the so-called https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclusive-cpec-master-plan-revealed (accessed on 19 May 2017) ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’, which is being 3 Saman Wasae, “CPEC: The Milestones”, The News International, 12 September 2016, http:/ /www.cpecinfo.com/cpec-news-detail?id=NTg2, (accessed on 12 May 2017) projected as the flagship project of the OBOR, the 4 Khurram Husain, “Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed”, n. 2 5Ashna Kumar, “In Udhampur, PM Narendra Modi asks Youngsters to Choose between international community is well aware of India’s Terrorism and Tourism”, India Today, 2 April 2017, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chenani- nashri-tunnel-udhampur-rally-pm-narendra-modi-jammu-kashmir/1/918761.html position. No country can accept a project that ignores (accessed on 12 May 2017) 6 Arun Joshi, “Modi’s Answer to CPEC: India a Game Changer in Region”, The Tribune, 5 its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial April 2017, http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/jammu-kashmir/community/modi-s-answer- to-cpec-india-a-game-changer-in-region/387139.html (accessed on 12 May 2017) integrity.” The Indian position was aptly represented 7 Suhasini Haidar, “Why did India Boycott China’s Road Summit?”, The Hindu, 20 May 2017 8 Sutirtho Patranobis, “Sushma Swaraj Lays Silk Road by Baglay when he said, “Connectivity projects must for PM Modi’s China Visit in May”, Hindustan Times, be pursued in a manner that respects the sovereignty 1 February 2015 9 Richard Ghiasy and Jiayi Zhou, “The Silk Road Economic Belt: Considering Security and territorial integrity. Guided by our principled Implications and EU-China Cooperation Prospects”, SIPRI Report, 22 February 2017, https:/ /www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/The-Silk-Road-Economic-Belt-Executive-Summary.pdf position in the matter, we have been urging China to (accessed on 15 May 2017) 10 Speech by External Affairs Minister at the Inauguration of Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, engage in a meaningful dialogue on its connectivity 1 March 2016, New Delhi, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India,http://mea.gov.in/ Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/26432 (accessed on 15 May 2017) initiative, ‘One Belt, One Road’ which was later 11 “PM Modi Raises India’s Concerns over CPEC which Runs through PoK”, Indian Express, 4 September 2016 renamed as ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. We are 12 Shubhajit Ray, “On Corridor via PoK, India Showed No Sensitivity: Govt.”, Indian Express, 19 January 2017 awaiting a positive response from the Chinese side.” 13 Suhasini Haidar, “Why did India Boycott China’s Road Summit?”, n.7 14 Inaugural Address by Prime Minister at Second Raisina Dialogue, 17 January 2017, New Besides, hinting at how B&RI projects have been Delhi, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, http://mea.gov.in/Speeches- creating bad debt in countries where they have been Statements.htm?dtl/27948/Inaugural_Address_by_Prime_Minister_at_Second_ Raisina_Dialogue_New_Delhi_January_17_2017 (accessed on 15 May 2017) undertaken, he added: “Connectivity initiatives must 15 Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying’s Media Briefing, quoted in Ananth Krishnan, “China Silent on Link to Pakistan’s New Gilgit Ploy”, India Today, 17 March 2017, follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-silent-on-link-to-pakistans-new-gilgit-ploy/1/ 906274.html (accessed on 15 May 2017) projects that would create unsustainable debt burden 16 Kai Xue, “CPEC Aims to bring China, India and Pakistan as part of Xi’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Policy”, for communities; balanced ecological and Economic Times, 28 March 2017 17 “India Boycotts China’s B&R Meet, Mounts Diplomatic Pressure Against CPEC”, Indian environmental protection and preservation standards; Express, 14 May 2017 18 “India Skips China’s Belt and Road Forum Summit Ceremony”, Economic Times, 14 May transparent assessment of project costs; and skill and 2017

60 World Focus July 2017 Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and PoK: The Challenges Ahead Dr. Saleem Ahmad & Dr. Khushbu Gupta

Understanding the Region Pakistan Occupied Kashmir Jammu and Kashmir is an area that includes three Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) consists of the conflicted regions such as the Indian administered so called “Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit- territory which comprises of Jammu, Kashmir and Baltistan area. It is part of the state of Jammu and Ladakh, the Pakistan administered territories of Azad Kashmir, and hence, an integral part of India. It has Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, and Chinese been under the illegitimate control of Pakistan since administered territories of Aksai Chin and the Trans- October 22, 1947 when the tribal guerillas supported Karakoram Highway. The Jammu area is dominant by Pakistan invaded the princely state of Jammu and by Hindus with Muslims being in majority in certain Kashmir. Because of its geo-political location, POK areas. The Northern area known as Gilgit-Baltistan has immense strategic importance for their stake illegally occupied by Pakistan and is inhabited by holders.5 It shares borders with several countries like different races like Mongols, Tadjik, Kirghiz and Pakistan, the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan and others.1 The Muslim population is almost equally Tajikistan to the West and the Xinjiang province of divided into three sects i.e. Sunni, Shi’a as Jaffaria the Republic of China to the North. Since, the and Ismails. The Kashmir is a territorial conflict formation of the Karakoram highway to connect primarily between India and Pakistan which started Pakistan with China via POK, the geopolitical just after the partition of India in 1947. Since, India significance of POK has also increased manifold in and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir the contemporary era. If POK were under Indian including the India-Pakistan wars of 1947 and 1965 control, the geopolitics of the subcontinent would have as well as the Kargil War of 1999.2 On the one hand, been very different from what it is today. This is India claims the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir because POK is the gateway to the Central Asian and administers approximately 43% of the region Republics and to their expanding markets.6 That is which controls Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, Ladakh why; the growing Chinese involvement in POK and the Siachen Glacier. On the other, Indian claims especially in the field of infrastructural development are contested by Pakistan which administers further underlines the strategic value of this area. approximately 37% of Kashmir region namely Azad China seeks strategic depth in this area to extend its Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan region. Further, the influence in the region. In addition, POK is rich in Republic of China currently administers Demchok natural resources and these resources have been district, the Shaksgam Valley and the Aksai Chin subjected to exploitation by the government of region. India has also disputed China’s claims since Pakistan over the years. Therefore, one part of the China took Aksai Chin during the India-China war of state of Jammu and Kashmir continues to be under 1962.3 Moreover, Gilgit Baltistan is located at the illegal occupation of Pakistan while the other part confluence of three geographical regions such as remains with India after accession of Jammu and southern, central and eastern Asia. It retains its geo- Kashmir. Therefore, India has continued maintain that political significance and growing Chinese interest in POK is a legitimate part of the Indian Union.7 recent years has elevated the region’s importance in the regional strategic landscape. As the territorial link Pakistan and China Friendship between China and Pakistan, the Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan and China have long enjoyed an “all weather region is pivotal in the scheme of the China Pakistan friendship” and continued to strengthen their relations Economic Corridor (CPEC).4 through a strong strategic cooperation in the South Asia region. Pakistan’s relations with China have largely been influenced by its security needs and her Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and PoK: The Challenges Ahead 61 geopolitical position in the subcontinent. Pakistan to India’s requests to allow its probe team to visit continues to see China as a guarantor against India. Pakistan. The neighbouring country, in fact, has never Its current strain in relations with the US has added sounded serious about probing the incident. PM Modi more importance to the need for further cementing became much disappointed when Nawaz Sharif ties with China. Moreover, Pakistan offers the land declared Burhan Wani “a martyr and funeral locked western part of China a much desired route processions were” being held there. Consequently, to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean which would this all made PM Modi uncomfortable enough to finally also provide China an access to Iran and the Gulf abandon his Pakistan policy that he had initiated in region.8 To meet its ever increasing demands for the beginning. It seemed that he has finally run out of energy, in the coming years, China would require an patience. After three years of his initiative, one can uninterrupted supply of crude oil and natural gas from analyze that PM Modi’s efforts have proved futile.12 West Asia. The overarching presence of the United States in the Gulf and the Malacca Straits adds to Strategic Shift in Modi’s Policy China’s fears of its supply route being prohibited in A tectonic shift came in India’s foreign policy towards the event of a conflict. At present, the bulk of China’s Pakistan when PM Modi openly talked about the crude oil imports pass through this region. Pakistan atrocities committed by the Pakistan army on the and China are working towards a road link that people of Balochistan. National Security Advisor, Ajit connects the Gwadar Port to China’s western border. Doval always maintained that if Pakistan interferes Here, POK also acts as a link for China’s interests in in Kashmir, then it should get ready to lose Afghanistan. Pakistan has a common border with the Balochistan. India should have openly supported the Chinese province of Xinjiang and is linked to Balochistan freedom struggle long ago and should Afghanistan and Central Asia through the Wakhan have used the Balochistan issue as an effective lever Corridor, a land strip with a width of only 10 miles.9 to counter Pakistan’s global propaganda against India over Kashmir.13 The atrocities committed by the Modi’s Pakistan Policy Pakistan army in Balochistan are far more gruesome As we all know that the PM Modi had invited Pakistan and inhuman than the alleged human rights violation Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, along with other by the Indian Army in Kashmir. In the beginning, the SAARC leaders to his oath taking ceremony on May Modi government was successful in impressing upon 26, 2014 and Nawaz Sharif warmly responded to it. the world that India has made every possible attempt At that time, he received universal praise for his bold to normalize its relationship with Pakistan, but initiative to write a new history in India-Pakistan Pakistan has not reciprocated in the same spirit. India relations. To note that PM Modi certainly gave a fresh has been successful in conveying to the global offer to Pakistan under his leadership in spite of the community that Pakistan is not doing enough to curb track record of Pakistan’s backstabbing. This initiative terrorism.14 Moreover, the first indication of strategic seemed to work and a personal rapport developed shift in PM Modi’s policy can be seen when he between Modi and Sharif.10 There were exchanges delivered a speech at all party meeting on Jammu & of mangoes, Sarees and talks between officials. PM Kashmir in August 2016, he said, “today, when we Modi was still hopeful and he never sounded overtly talk of Jammu and Kashmir we should talk about critical of Pakistan and used his words carefully even four parts of the state of Jammu & Kashmir: Jammu, if his silence on Pakistan sponsored terrorism in Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. He did not mention Pakistan in Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir is often called the his second Independence Day speech from the Red crown of India. In fact, Jammu and Kashmir is a Fort on August 15, 2015. When the Pathankot terrorist symbol of the age old commitment of equanimity attack took place in January 2016, things started towards all creeds (Sarv-Panth Sambhaav), where deteriorating after it. There were conflicting reports Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Muslims have been living of terrorist attacks which Pakistan had dismissed the together for centuries. The state of Jammu and evidence given by India.11 Though Islamabad has Kashmir is the symbol of our founding fathers’ faith never officially been confirmed terrorist activities which defines us as Indian in spite of our multiples against India. Moreover, Pakistan has not responded identity. The Jammu and Kashmir is not only a matter

62 World Focus July 2017 of our territorial integrity but also defines our China Pakistan Economic Corridor.18 They are nationhood. We cannot deny the fact that the security actively engaged in strengthening their military forces have suffered a lot of injuries and they have infrastructure through POK in a bid to dilute the been the target of planned attacks by our neighbour India’s claim over the disputed territory. China has country. Despite this, our security forces have shown planned to strengthen its military presence in the restraint. But Pakistan forgets that it bombs its own region by implementing the CPEC project. The project citizens using fighter planes. The time has come when is being constructed by China through the POK to Pakistan shall have to answer to the world for the directly connect the strategic Karakoram region which atrocities committed by it against people in Baluchistan is near the Siachen glacier with Rawalpindi by and POK. The Ministry of External Affairs should upgrading and laying almost 1100 kilometres long make efforts to approach the people of POK residing highway and underground bridges is a direct in different parts of world and collect information interference of Beijing in the Indian Territory under about the miserable conditions in POK and bring them the illegal occupation of Pakistan.19 This has also to the knowledge of the world community”.15 exposed the double face of Beijing that has been Moreover, PM Modi in his third Independence Day issuing ‘stapled visa’ to residents of Jammu and speech from the Red Fort marked the first instance Kashmir, and on the other hand, it is investing huge for an Indian Prime Minister to talk about the situation funds to strengthen its infrastructure in POK. While in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and safeguarding its strategic and economic interests Balochistan area. In his address, PM Modi “hit out at through the CPEC, China is also providing an express Pakistan for ‘glorifying’ terrorists and wondered what highway to Pakistan military just near the Line of kind of a country it is that drew inspiration from terror. Control between India and Pakistan. This will provide He said, “People from there have thanked him for greater mobility to Pakistani troops in certain raising their issues”. I want to express my gratitude inhospitable parts of the LOC. Moreover, the to some people-the people of Baluchistan, Gilgit and development of the Gwadar Port in Balochistan forms Pakistan occupied Kashmir-for the way they whole- the crux of the CPEC project, as it is envisaged to be heartedly thanked me, the way they expressed the link between China’s ambitious One Belt, One gratitude to me, the way they conveyed their goodwill Road (OBOR) project.20 The aim of China is to make to me recently. People in distant land, which I have more powerful in the South Asia region. Protests not even seen, people that I have not met...when those against the CPEC have been witnessed in POK, people thank the Indian Prime Minister, greet him; it Balochistan, Gilgit and Baltistan where people fear is an honour for the people of the country”.16 that the project was causing ecological disaster in Furthermore, the forcible annexation of Balochistan this region and increasing the presence of Chinese by Pakistan army has always been contested by the foot prints. As a result, Pakistan has created a Baloch people; it has been ruthlessly exploited for its separate security force for the safety of Chinese mineral wealth. The atomic bomb tests were also engineers and work force which engaged in conducted there. The Pakistan security forces have implementation of the CPEC particularly in the POK conducted a brutal and vicious campaign against area. India regards the CPEC project negatively as Balochistan people who are fighting to rid themselves they pass through disputed territory which is claimed of Pakistan’s atrocities. Though a minority in Pakistan, by India. Former Indian ambassador, Phunchok which approximately 7 million populations, Baluchis Stobdan, alleged that China and Pakistan intended to have been fighting for freedom since 1948. The world develop the corridor not just for its economic benefits is still relatively unaware of Pakistani atrocities in but also it is motivated by the strategic intent of this region.17 The bold decision of PM Modi to get besieging India.21 tough on Pakistan has come as a major shift in India’s Pakistan policy as for the past 70 years. India India’s Concern and the Issue of Balochistan remained silent on the issue while Pakistan left no Therefore, India raised its concern with China over stone unturned to malign India at various international the CPEC project and terrorism “emanating from the forums. Modi’s policy to expose Pakistan has come region”. PM Modi told categorically to the Chinese at a time when China and Pakistan implementing the President Xi Jinping the two countries need to be

Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and PoK: The Challenges Ahead 63 “sensitive” to each other’s strategic interests. viewing this as blatant admission to India’s hand in Asserting that fight against terror should not be the separatist movement and he Indian premier’s motivated by “political considerations”. PM Modi said, speech is proof that his country is meddling in “It is of paramount importance that we should respect Balochistan. Moreover, Pakistan alleged that Indian each other’s aspirations, concerns and strategic agencies are backing Baloch insurgents and working interests” to ensure durable bilateral ties.22 He raised to destabilize Pakistan.26 India’s concerns over the $46 billion CPEC being laid through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir at the G20 China’s Persuasion summit held in Hangzhou in 2016. Besides a host of India’s foreign secretary S Jaishankar made it clear energy related projects, the CPEC consists of rail, that India has “sovereignty” issues with the CPEC road, and pipelines to ferry oil and gas from Gwadar corridor passing through POK. The fact is that the Port on Arabian Sea to Kashghar in China’s Muslim CPEC violates India’s sovereignty because it runs dominated Xinjiang province through POK. On his through POK. The advice came from Chinese state part, President Xi said, “China is willing to work with media that India should join the China Pakistan India to maintain their “hard-won sound” ties and Economic Corridor to reap economic benefits even further boost bilateral cooperation. China and India if it means legitimizing the disputed region. The should respect and care for each other on issues of Global Times, a nationalistic, state-controlled tabloid major concern and handle differences in a said, “New Delhi fears that the CPEC, passing constructive way”.23 However, India openly objects through the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, would serve to this project because of its claim on the POK and the purpose of granting legitimacy to Pakistan’s control the Baloch people allege that this is a part of Pakistani over the region and by promoting the construction of strategy to exploit the Baluchistan region with the the corridor, China intends to interfere in the Kashmir help of the Chinese, not to forget that the Chinese dispute. These concerns are unwarranted”.27 China nationals and its assets in use to develop Gwadar are has no intention of interfering in the territorial dispute being safe guarded by a 15000 strong Pakistani army. between India and Pakistan. China has long believed Baluchistan region comprises of about 45 % of the that the two neighbours should solve their dispute total Pakistani area but consists of only about 5% of through dialogue and consultations and it has its total population.24 It has borders with Iran and repeatedly emphasized that China respects India’s Afghanistan and is rich in natural resources. The sovereignty concerns. Taking a strong stand on Baloch nationalists exiled in different countries claim territorial issues is important, but it’s hoped India could a Baloch genocide has occurred over the years by adopt an objective and more pragmatic attitude toward the Pakistani army. Therefore, PM Modi has signaled the One Belt, One Road proposal. It’s estimated that a major policy shift towards Pakistan and bound to the CPEC could pave the way for about 1 million have a huge impact on the geo-politics of the entire new jobs and could attract a strong influx of foreign South Asian region. India’s tactics of publicly direct investment (FDI) into the region. India should declaring support to the Baluchistan movement will seize the opportunity to alleviate misunderstandings be a game changer in the dynamics of the region, as with Pakistan through economic cooperation.28 For China will certainly be watching these developments both China and Pakistan, the primary goals of CPEC closely.25 On the other, Pakistan has long accused are economic. Kashgar is nearly three thousand miles India of fueling terrorism in Balochistan, its largest from Shanghai by road. The CPEC provides western province, and of supporting its independence China with quicker access to sea and reduces the movement. PM Modi holds a bargaining chip in all country’s dependence on the Asia-Pacific sea lines future discussions on Kashmir by giving India a role of communication. For Pakistan, the Gwadar port in Balochistan. As India views Kashmir as a domestic reduces its dependence on its two major ports, both issue, just as Pakistan views Balochistan, however, located in the greater Karachi area. It also provides PM Modi has just signaled that any move to a means to develop its most deprived areas and boost internationalize Kashmir’s issues would be economic growth and efficiency in established accompanied by a move to internationalize industrial hubs.29 Balochistan’s issues. Pakistan reacted forcefully,

64 World Focus July 2017 India’s Surgical Strike from significant causalities to the terrorists and their The successful surgical strike conducted by the Indian supporters, the operations have been completed as Army across the Line of Control (LOC) on 29 the goals were met.33 On the other, the government September 2016, mark a definitive shift in India’s of Pakistan has blatantly refused to acknowledge that Pakistan policy. In these circumstances, India’s the terrorists of the Uri attack belong to their longstanding policy of engagement with Pakistan not nationality and that India has undertaken such a strike. only failed but in fact, encouraged it to continue with Rather their Inter Services Public Relations confirmed its involvement with terrorist activities directed against it as cross border fire which has been a routine affair India. PM Modi’s more muscular approach towards between both the countries. However, the security Pakistan constitutes a refreshing break from the past. establishment in India knows that reaction from This shift may be traced to the aftermath of the Islamabad has always been predictable and the January 2016 Pathankot incident, when it became current refusal suits New Delhi. In the meanwhile, crystal clear that Pakistan had no intention to seriously to build credibility to its response to the surgical strike, address India’s concerns in the matter and bring to the Pakistan government has indulged in a huge book the perpetrators of that terrorist action despite campaign in the POK that the strikes never all its assurances that it would do so.30 PM Modi occurred.34 PM Modi’s decision to order army raids followed in the mould of his predecessors, and in across the Line of Control in Kashmir has got mixed particular Prime Minister Vajpayee, by extending the response in India. Many supporters have greeted it hand of friendship to Pakistan as most dramatically as a long overdue step to challenge Pakistan’s support illustrated by his invitation to Nawaz Sharif for his to cross-border terrorism in India. Some people have inauguration and by his surprise goodwill visit to seen the cross-LOC attacks on terror launch pads as Lahore on the occasion of the latter’s birthday on 25 a dangerous move that could intensify the current December 2015. However, once it became apparent conflict with Pakistan. Some have criticised it as yet that Pakistan was not prepared on any account to another of the flip-flops that have characterised PM shut down its infrastructure of terror and would Modi’s Pakistan policy. At the same time, PM Modi’s continue its export of terror to India, the Modi advisers hinted that if Pakistan continues with its government swiftly decided to change its policy and cross-border terrorism, Delhi will let the Indian Army adopt a more robust approach towards Pakistan cross the LOC in retaliation.35 If terrorism continues designed to impose pain upon it in order to compel it in Kashmir, it is possible to imagine that the LOC will to change its ways.31 no longer be a thin military line of separation, but a zone of protracted conflict. Crossing the Line of India actively retaliated the second terrorist Control was one element of Modi’s policy to put attack by Pakistan based Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) pressure on the Pakistan Army to end cross border on the Indian army base at Uri on , terrorism. PM Modi, however, appears to be betting 2016. Since the Uri attack, there was much that in such a game of destabilization he can do more speculation as to India’s reaction. In terms of being damage to Pakistan, and that, this in turn might act as offensive, India chose on September 28, 2016 to a deterrent. The boldest part of PM Modi’s new conduct surgical strikes into POK across the Line of approach has not been horizontal escalation, but in Control. The targets were the launch pads of the the more demanding vertical dimension. Therefore, terrorists. A surgical strike, unlike carpet bombing, is the surgical strikes beyond the Line of Control by the a limited but fast operation in military parlance to take Indian army demonstrated the will to intensify the out a specific target involving limited or no collateral conflict with Pakistan into a full blown military damage.32 The intention of such operations is to confrontation including its nuclear dimension.36 ensure that offensive actions do not escalate to war. These actions may be denied or sorted out The Challenges Ahead diplomatically by the concerned government. The Scholars have raised many questions regarding Modi’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of policy towards POK, and the primary question is that, India who briefed the media after the strike across can the integration of POK with the rest of India will the Line of Control, he also pointed out that apart be a permanent solution to the Kashmir issue? When

Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and PoK: The Challenges Ahead 65 we see the issue in its perspective on economic, social, expect today. Keeping aside our emotions, if we think political or technical lines, it becomes more and more on political, logical and ethical grounds, it becomes clear that the Kashmir issue will not be resolved even apparent that gaining POK will not serve any purpose. if we secure POK. Merely acquiring 13,000 square Those who disagree may say that POK is an integral kilo meters of land will certainly not help to resolve part of India and not regaining it would mean national the cause of Kashmir.37 As the great realist thinker embarrassment.41 SD Muni argues that the real of ancient India, known as Chanakya, said, a family challenge of Modi’s neighbourhood policy has always can be sacrificed for the good of a village; a village been in dealing with China and Pakistan. Both these can be sacrificed for the good of a country. India relationships look as confused, uncertain and daunting today with a population of 1.3 billion has an area of as ever. PM Modi’s foreign policy initiative of 3.287 million sq km. acquiring a patch of land or the ‘neighbourhood first’ seems to have run into troubled size of small districts and embracing all the violent waters. There have been many successes when it after-effects, is likely not to bring a sensible solution. comes to foreign policy in general but when it comes India devotes about 35 per cent of its annual budget to the neighbourhood, the expectations aroused by to its defense and security personal in these areas. the initiative and the energy invested in driving it have One of the main reasons for this is the ongoing conflict faded somewhat.42 His continued engagement with along the Line of Control in Kashmir.38 If we believe Pakistan in the past three years yielded no results. that conquering this nest of militancy and violence The same Modi government heavily criticized by the will solve our inherited problem, then we are living in Congress Party and stated that the BJP government a fool’s paradise. If India does indeed “get back” would have more strength to handle Pakistan POK, we will end up spending 50 per cent of our effectively. Not one inch of feel good factor can be budget on defense alone. Do we need this? And claimed to have been developed with Pakistan under moreover, there are no safeguards to ensure that such the policy of PM Modi’s government. As a rising a move will change into long-lasting peace. There power, India has the strength to deal with any will, of course, be arguments that integrating POK challenges, and therefore has to bear more with Kashmir will lead to the development of the responsibility than Pakistan to keep the region safe. beautiful valley which has not seen much progress. The time has come to demonstrate this strength, and In the last several decades, Pakistan has not shown to fulfill these obligations of peace and security, the any kind of interest in either peace talks with India or Modi government needs new policy directions to deal engaging with separatist movements in POK.39 with Pakistan.43 Furthermore, China and Pakistan Earlier, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee relations are the best example of how greedy they undertook the Samjhauta Bus journey to Lahore. We are for money, power and supremacy can bring even all know the outcome, the Kargil War. The Simla Pact, opposite ideologies together. Pakistan is an Islamic Agra Agreement, and other Republic and China has no love lost for Islam. Still agreements remained just words. Will Pakistan allow China and Pakistan are closest allies and mutual for a quiet passage of POK to India? A permanent benefit involves pure economics. China is earning lots solution to the Kashmir and POK problem, which no of money by exporting arms to Pakistan. Beijing is one desires, can be war. Both India and Pakistan are world’s third largest arm exporter and as China’s nuclear nations. One can imagine the fallout and biggest buyer of arms credit goes to Pakistan. Both collateral damage a full-scale war will bring. We are trying their best to keep each other in good humour cannot afford to have generations of handicapped and eliminating terrorism is not on their agenda. One children, just to possess a piece of barren land. If a is the breeding ground of terrorists and other is using move is made to occupy the disputed land, the flames its international clout to save them.44 Moreover, India’s of terror in the neighbourhood will not only engulf ties with Pakistan and China are as usual and there is POK, but will also come Kashmir.40 In our struggle no sign of hope to improve in near future, because for POK, we may lose Kashmir as well. This will both the countries are deliberately trying to undermine further strengthen the arguments of the separatists. India’s initiative to improve relations with these hostile If the entire Kashmir region demands separation from countries. In this perspective, PM Modi’s magic of India, we will be giving away more than what we India’s foreign policy has failed with these two

66 World Focus July 2017 countries and he needs to be reviewed its foreign well as the foreign policy of India at the regional as policy approach to deal with them.45 well as international level.

Conclusion End Notes: In fine, PM Modi made a big policy mistake in the 1 http://milanmun.it/DATA/bacheca/file/Anno2017/Background%20paper/Political/ Vlad%20Ghionaru_.pdf beginning when he invited to attend Pakistan Prime 2 http://milanmun.it/DATA/bacheca/file/Anno2017/Background%20paper/Political/ Minister Nawaz Sharif in the oath taking ceremony Vlad%20Ghionaru_.pdf 3 http://milanmun.it/DATA/bacheca/file/Anno2017/Background%20paper/Political/ in May 2014, while Nawaz Sharif took it as granted Vlad%20Ghionaru_.pdf and did not reciprocate in the same spirit. PM Modi 4 http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/gilgit-baltistan-province-no-province/ 5 http://www.idsa.in/system/files/book/book_Pakistan OccupiedKashmir.pdf should have learnt from the past mistakes committed 6 http://www.idsa.in/system/files/book/book_Pakistan OccupiedKashmir.pdf 7 http://www.idsa.in/system/files/book/book_Pakistan OccupiedKashmir.pdf by the Congress Party or NDA government led by 8 http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc/20759 83250_AditiMalhotra.pdf Atal Bihari Vajpayi, because, whenever, India tried 9 http://www.claws.in/images/journals_doc/20759 83250_AditiMalhotra.pdf 10 http://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-pakistan-independence-day-balochistan- to improve or restore relations with the hostile nawaz-sharif-kashmir/story/1/12390.html neighbor country, on his part, Pakistan has always 11 http://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-pakistan-independence-day-balochistan- nawaz-sharif-kashmir/story/1/12390.html stabbed in India’s back. Chanakya said rightly, “Learn 12 http://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-pakistan-independence-day-balochistan- from the mistakes of others…You can’t live long nawaz-sharif-kashmir/story/1/12390.html 13 http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-modi-played-the-baloch-card/20160816.htm enough to make them all yourselves!!”. But Pathankot 14 http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-modi-played-the-baloch-card/20160816.htm and Uri terrorist attacks have brought a significant 15 http://www.thehindu.com/news/resources/Modis-speech-at-all-party-meeting-on- Jammu-amp-Kashmir/article14572729.ece shift in Modi’s Pakistan policy and equally opened 16 http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-modi-first-pm-to-talk-pok-balochistan-in- the eyes of foreign policy makers in India to deal i-day-speech-says-pak-inspired-by-terror-343796 17 htt Islamabad in a pragmatic way. Subsequently, PM p://www.daily-sun.com/post/167515/PM-Modi%E2%80%99s-Bold-New-Gambit Modi openly supported the people of Baclochistan, 18 http://hillpost.in/2016/08/modi-shifting-india-focus-a-timely-step/107085/ 19 http://hillpost.in/2016/08/modi-shifting-india-focus-a-timely-step/107085/ which is a domestic affair of Pakistan, to put pressure 20 http://hillpost.in/2016/08/modi-shifting-india-focus-a-timely-step/107085/ on Islamabad to stop support terrorists activities 21 http://hillpost.in/2016/08/modi-shifting-india-focus-a-timely-step/107085/ 22 https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2016/09/04/modi-raises-chinas-pok-corridor- against New Delhi. One can say for Modi with-xi-jingping-slams-pakistans-terror-links Government that better late than never. 23 https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2016/09/04/modi-raises-chinas-pok-corridor- with-xi-jingping-slams-pakistans-terror-links Regarding the policy towards POK by the Modi 24 https://www.youngausint.org.au/single-post/2016/09/06/India%E2%80%99s-Modi-signals- a-major-policy-shift-towards-Pakistan government, there is no doubt that POK is an integral 25 https://www.youngausint.org.au/single-post/2016/09/06/India%E2%80%99s-Modi-signals- part of the state of the Jammu and Kashmir and it is a-major-policy-shift-towards-Pakistan 26 http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/india-pakistan-relations-a-paradigm-shift/ a question of national honour to liberate it from the 27 http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/what-pok-join-china-pak-corridor-for- illegal Pakistani occupation for the Modi government. economic-benefits-chinese-media-to-india/story-lGXYEo6MFV2rht16V soCWP.html 28 http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/what-pok-join-china-pak-corridor-for- The growing China’s presence in POK and the economic-benefits-chinese-media-to-india/story-lGXYEo6MFV2 rht16VsoCWP.html development of the CPEC project is a grave concern 29 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/indias-modi-playing-the-wrong-game-against-china- pakistan-17411?page=show for India. But still Modi government has not prepared 30 http://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/october/05/india-s-pakistan-policy-on-the-right-track a solid plan for POK and what kind of policy India 31 http://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/october/05/india-s-pakistan-policy-on-the-right-track 32 http://www.feps-europe.eu/assets/0e4c7f0b-a1e9-4a6f-8276-939cb7450176/klausvoll- will adopt in future, because, POK is like a “white september-2016pdf.pdf elephant” for India. Annexation of POK will not 33 http://www.feps-europe.eu/assets/0e4c7f0b-a1e9-4a6f-8276-939cb7450176/klausvoll- september-2016pdf.pdf resolve the Kashmir problem, now the time has come 34 http://www.feps-europe.eu/assets/0e4c7f0b-a1e9-4a6f-8276-939cb7450176/klausvoll- to evolve a grand strategy to locate China and september-2016pdf.pdf 35 http://carnegieindia.org/2016/11/11/charting-new-course-modi-s-pakistan-policy-pub- Pakistan in a broad framework. That is why; New 65118 Delhi has not join CPEC and OBOR projects led by 36 http://carnegieindia.org/2016/11/11/charting-new-course-modi-s-pakistan-policy-pub- 65118 the Republic of China and supported by Pakistan. 37 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-pok-4556035/ This is a failure of the Modi government, because 38 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-pok-4556035/ 39 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-pok-4556035/ they have not pondered it seriously, the growing 40 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-pok-4556035/ 41 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-pakistan-pok-4556035/ strategic partnership between China and Pakistan is 42 http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/modi-s-foreign-policy-misses-in-the- a big challenge for Modi government in the coming neighbourhood/story- rrfk6PoeSz5iGpH9xFRoRJ.html years. Over all, we can say that PM Modi’s 43 http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com _k2&view=item&id=1672:the-failure- charismatic style of leadership and powerful of-prime-minister-narendra-modi-s-pakistan-policy&Itemid=867 44 http://postcard.news/the-secret-behind-chinas-love-for-pakistan/ personality cult has raised the credit of New Delhi as 45 See Ahmad, Saleem (2016), “India’s Foreign Policy: Past, Present and Emerging Ties in the World”, World Focus, 443, November 2016, ISSN 2230-8458, Strategic Shift in Modi’s Pakistan Policy and PoK: The Challenges Ahead 67 OBOR through PoK: A Threat to India’s Foreign Policy Snehil Kacker

Introduction How the countries perceive OBOR? In international relations there are no permanent allies, How India is going to tackle the threat of OBOR? there are only permanent interests .This statement Within the framework of OBOR what is the future of the past, holds relevance till date. No country can of South Asia and South East Asia? afford to place international concerns and commitments above its own national interests. India on its part is apprehensive of OBOR and its Realpolitik means business and business requires implementation. The main concern of India is the prudence. At present, the International scenario is passage of OBOR through the POK. undergoing tremendous changes, however what remains constant is the pre eminence of national The paper will try to answer the above interests. The Trump administration has already questions and will also discuss the OBOR Vision and withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on Climate its repercussions for India. It also highlights the effect Change in the name of protection of its national of OBOR on South Asia and assesses the role of interests. ‘Buy American, hire American’ is Trump’s India in this extremely challenging situation. slogan to keep “America first” (Trump reiterated what Bush Sr, said in 1992 that the American Way of life OBOR and China’s Perspective is not for negotiation).This has resulted in a big The concept of OBOR is based on the revival of the opportunity for China, who along with India was ancient Silk route which connected China with Asia constantly pressurised by the developed world to and ultimately with Europe. The two ancient silk routes reduce its GHG emissions and stop benefitting from were the Northern Silk Road and the Southern the status of a “developing country”. China is actively Maritime Silk Road. In 2013, Chinese President Xi trying to dethrone USA as a Super Power and the Jinping made an announcement to revive both of them. withdrawal of USA from Paris Agreement would The new initiative is backed by modern railways and surely work in its favour to take a lead in the Climate pipeline projects. The OBOR initiative has been Change negotiation. This is just an example to show bifurcated into two parts: how China is taking big strides to mould the global 1. The ‘Belt’ refers to the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt order in its own favour. ‘a land based project aimed at connecting China with Central and Western Europe. In Europe, the Big Three in the form of 2. The ‘Road’ refers to the ‘21st Century Maritime Germany, Britain and all also overburdened Silk Road’ a sea based project aimed at connecting with their own problems, the recent crisis for Britain’s China to South-East Asia, Africa and Central Asia. Theresa May’s being the loss of majority in the UK Parliament in the recently conducted snap elections. The OBOR is an attempt on the part of China Undeterred yet mindful of such developments, China to spread development and prosperity beyond its is aggressively moving ahead. It is not irresolute, borders .It is aimed at regional co-operation, faster indecisive and incapable. It has a big geo political economic development and fostering new strategy to lead the world and is efficiently taking the partnerships. Thus, it is a grand initiative to bring big and bold steps. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) together all the countries along the route. Internally, Vision of China is a grand strategy to pursue its it tries to rectify the lopsided development in China. national interests in the name of a Vision for regional The coastal and eastern parts of China are more integration. The questions which arise from the above developed in comparison to the inlands and the discussion are – western parts. The belt initiative tries to put the inlands

68 World Focus July 2017 at the front of development and the Road puts the  The project connects Kashgar in China to Gwadar eastern opening up, so that there can be balanced port in Pakistan, through this port China can control development in China. Another good intention of the Pakistan and come closer to India. OBOR is that it aims at uplifting the economies of  The financial support of China to Pakistan runs in the emerging and developing economies that lie on billions. Apart from this, China also plans to begin, by the route. 1. This is the historic vision of China, if 2020, a hydropower project in Karot and hand it over implemented it is going to be one of the most ambitious to Pakistan. projects of the century.  India has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean Region. The Indian Ocean Region also has the OBOR –A Vision or a Strategy? presence of several powers like US, Australia, Japan China has portrayed OBOR as a win-win situation among others. The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) will for itself as well as the countries in partnership. No give China a major presence in this region as well as wonder, more than 60 countries have already signed in the South China Sea. India is already in collaboration it. Nepal being the latest in South Asia to sign OBOR. with Japan, Australia and USA in this region. It does Morgenthau in his second principle of the theory of not want to diminish this strength by becoming a part realism states that, interest is always defined in terms of the Maritime Silk Road. It wants to maintain its of power. China, like any other country wants to be crucial strength in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).2. powerful. OBOR is not a vision of Xi Jinping to flourish  OBOR can push the countries involved in a financial China and other countries as well but it is a strategic crisis. India fears that the South Asian countries that move to control and assert its power in international are part of OBOR might face a debt crisis which will politics. It is a systematic effort to dwarf India and have a direct bearing on India. During times of conflict, establish its dominance not only in South East Asia the situation will become more complex. but also in South Asia. OBOR challenges Europe  The CPEC passage through POK is an and questions US supremacy. Xi Jinping has already infringement of the sovereignty of India. This project declared OBOR as the most important decision of will bring China as the third party to the Kashmir his foreign policy. It is bereft of any good motive of dispute. It is expected that China might change its the statesman, rather it is a calculated move of China. stand from a silent spectator to an active participant The question which arises is that why India is opposing in the so far bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. OBOR? Pakistan is bound to follow China’s wishes as it is already burdened with huge investments from China. India’s concerns on OBOR It is also apprehended that Pakistan might be used by It is projected that the Silk Road Economic Belt China which is keen to find a reliable regional partner (SREB) will surely benefit India with its extended in South Asia as an answer to the INDO- US policy. rail and road network. India will also benefit from the oil and gas network, pipelines and supportive  India wants OBOR to be based upon universal infrastructure. However India is mainly concerned international norms, good governance, rules of law, with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), transparency, openness and equality. These principles which is a major component of SREB. are not followed by China on OBOR, hence India opposes OBOR. During the recently convened SCO Summit, PM Modi stressed that connectivity projects  The CPEC project passes through POK and in the region should respect Sovereignty, territorial particularly through the Gilgit Baltistan area which is integrity and maintain inclusivity and sustainability. close to India. India considers CPEC as an infringement of its sovereignty as it considers Gilgit India’s response to OBOR Baltistan an integral part of India. This is the main India and theMaritime Silk Road (MSR) concern of India regarding OBOR and CPEC. Thus India has tried to answer MSR through Project India did not participate in the OBOR Summit held in Mausam, Spice route and Cotton route. China in May,2017.

OBOR through PoK: A Threat to India’s Foreign Policy 69 Project ‘Mausam’ The Modi government has been closely supporting It is a project of the Ministry of culture. The nodal the Sirisena Government. agency is Archaeological Survey of India, New Delhi The Sirisena government has turned down the Chinese and the Research Unit is Indira Gandhi Centre for offer to dock its submarine in the Hambantota port the Arts, New Delhi. The project has two levels-at so as not to displease India. It should be noted that the macro level it aims to establish cultural Sri Lanka is heavily indebted to China which has communication between the countries of the Indian heavily invested in its ports especially the Hambantota Ocean Region and at the micro level it focuses on and Colombo in the past few years. Sri-Lanka understanding the national cultures in their regional considers India as its brother and China as its friend. maritime milieu. It also aims for a nomination as a Both the brother and friend want to bring this island transnational inscription on the World Heritage List nation to its own side. of UNESCO.3.It is aimed at revival of cultural relations between the countries of the Indian Ocean and Seychelles were also visited by PM Region. More than 35 countries are expected to be a Modi in 2015 as a move to strengthen India’s position part of this project. in the Indian Ocean Region. In May, 2017 Mauritius PM visited India. This was his first visit abroad since Spice Route he took over as the Prime minister of Mauritius. Such This project aims to revive the ancient spice route of visits and the consequent agreements hold a lot of India which began from Kerala. The Kerala tourism significance to strengthen the position of India in the is vigorously promoting it. The spice route links with Indian Ocean Region and also send a strong signal to Muziris Heritage Project, including the ancient port China. Although Sri Lanka has backed India’s concern town of Kodungalloor in central Kerala which were over OBOR, yet it also has to fulfil its own national the main centre of the spice trade with Europe and interests, therefore it has supported China on OBOR. West Asia. It aims at the 31 countries enroute. UNESCO has also supported the project.4.The project South China Sea and India is more trade oriented than cultural. South China Sea is a very significant area of interest and struggle among the adjacent countries as well as Cotton Route for the second stage actors in South China Sea. It is Revival of the ancient cotton route is also an attempt a storehouse of huge quantities of energy and sea- to counter MSR of China. It should be noted that Silk food. The value and the volume of goods from this was not the only fabric that was exported from the global trade route, Sea Lines of Communication east to the west. There are historical evidences to (SLOC), has been estimated to surpass those of the prove that cotton was also sent to central Asia via SLOC of New York to Rotterdam(which has been the silk road. India not only wants to revive this cotton the most prominent SLOC of the world for a century) route but through it, India wants to revive its relations The primary conflict of interests lie between China, with countries of this ancient route.5. Vietnam, Philippines among others. USA, Australia The revival of the above routes is a strategic move and India have their presence in this area. China has of India to counter the MSR. However, India is not been vigorously spreading its influence in the South swift enough to counter China. Project Mausam has China Sea.6. An economically, politically strong China not been moving at the desired pace because of the is the best answer to the small, divisive countries lack of co-ordination between the agencies involved surrounding the South China Sea. India too, has a in it. The officials have already missed the March, good presence in these waters. It also maintains good 2017 deadline to meet the targets. relations with Vietnam. Sino Vietnam clashes and Sino Indian relations have been the prominent factor for India’s relation with the countries in the Indian the growing relations between Vietnam and India. Ocean Region: India and Vietnam are sceptical of the aggressive India & Sri-Lanka: moves of China in the South China Sea. China is also In May, 2017, PM Modi visited Sri-Lanka and strongly influencing the neighbours of India. Military reiterated the cultural ties between the two countries. hardware is being supplied to Pakistan and Sri Lanka,

70 World Focus July 2017 economic and infrastructure aid has been given to attacked this erstwhile state and under a lot of turmoil, Bangladesh and Military partnerships have been Hari Singh, signed the Instrument of Accession in established with Nepal and . These are no 1947.The Pakistan insurgency started taking the shape normal partnerships; rather they are a part of the of a war. As a result in 1949, with the intervention of strategy to encircle India with China friendly the UNO, a ceasefire line was decided. After 1971 countries-the String of Pearls. As Brahma Chellaney war, with slight changes, it has become the Line of has described Chinese policy towards India as “Salami Control (LOC).Therefore, the portion to the north Slicing”-the policy to make small incremental and west of the LOC is under Pakistan control. This encroachments into the territory of India, which do is called Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK).9. not end up in war but give a strategic advantage to China.7. Moonis Raza tried to bring more clarity to POK. There is a misunderstanding that POK means China has been objecting India’s presence in a part of Kashmir is under the control of Pakistan. the South China Sea because it considers its Pakistan has never occupied even a milimeter of sovereignty over the South China Sea. Therefore Kashmir. The misunderstanding erupts from confusing India is blamed for encroaching sovereignty of China. two different geographical entities, one Kashmir and India has clearly stated that, it is free to explore oil in the other the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. South China Sea, as per the Maritime International The portion of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, law and its intentions are purely commercial. India is illegally occupied by Pakistan is completely outside not a party to the dispute in the South China Sea, also the territory of Kashmir.10 it is not a claimant in the dispute. The Pakistan administration first divided The issue of Sovereignty is totally ignored POK into Azad (Free) Kashmir (AK) and Northern by China, when it comes to the CPEC. The CPEC Areas (NA) The Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and runs through those parts, which are claimed by India Kashmir occupied by Pakistan covers 85,793 sq km. as an integral part of the Indian Territory. Thus China It was further divided in 1970 into two separate is encroaching upon the territory of India, thereby administrative divisions: Mirpur-Muzaffarabad (which hurting the sovereignty of India. In turn, China declares Pakistan calls Azad Jammu and Kashmir, or AJK) this CPEC as purely commercial and aimed at and the Federally Administered Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit- providing livelihood projects to the region. This is just Baltistan was earlier referred to as Northern Areas a tit for tat reply by China. It should be noted that the in Pakistan. Pakistan gave a large piece of land i.e. issue of South China and CPEC are different from Shaksgam valley of 5180 sq km to China during its each other. India is not a party to the dispute there, border agreement of 1963.With this agreement China nor it intends to become a claimant to any island, but has become an important player in this region. It has China has a historical record of claiming territory in come really close to Indian borders. Since mid-1960s, the areas in which it invests.8. CPEC is looked as an China constructed the Karakoram Highway linking aggressive and expansionist attempt of China. Kashghar in Xinjiang with Gilgit and Abbottabad Pakistan will certainly support such an attempt. through the Khunjerab Pass. Though it is a geographically sensitive area, China has continued to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and CPEC upgrade this highway and make it an axis of China’s Jammu and Kashmir has a unique status in the Indian Silk Road Initiative which will link Xinjiang to Gwadar geopolitics. Kashmir, being the main point of tussle port in Balochistan through the highway, a possible between India and Pakistan. It is equally important railroad and oil and gas pipeline. China has invested to know the reality of POK. The integration of the in a number of projects in the Gilgit-Baltistan region princely states in India was a herculean task. There and the Chinese connection is an important element were some states which were creating problem for of the region’s economy. This is the reason India the Indian government. Jammu and Kashmir being objects to the Chinese activity in the POK. It has one of them. Maharaja Hari Singh was initially equally objected to the elections in the Gilgit-Baltistan reluctant to join India. Meanwhile, Pakistani troops

OBOR through PoK: A Threat to India’s Foreign Policy 71 area. India considers the region of Gilgit-Baltistan as 6. India and Pakistan have become members of SCO. an integral part of India.11. This might pressurize India to support some decisions backed by China in this forum. Therefore India has The Way Ahead to tread cautiously before making commitments in China moves quickly, reacts quickly and acts sharply. SCO which might hamper its national interests. It is able to do so because of the financial and political strength. A vast literature is available on the A strong, consistent and fast response to assessment of the rise of China. The Asian century China is the only way to arrest this big dragon of the has long been discussed in the foreign policy circles. 21 century. If India moves in a business as usual speed With OBOR moving so fast and supported by a large it might be overtaken by China. The dragon is moving number of the Asian countries, the questions which at a speed too fast to be ignored. The timely response need to be addressed are where does India stand? of India will guarantee it the status of a Big Power Is there a possibility of an Asian Century? Is the Rise which will no longer require China to chart the course of China the diminution of India? Will India give a of a century. befitting reply to China? If India does so what will be the course of action? References 1. Minghong, Yang ‘Understanding the One Belt One These can be the possible solutions to address the Road Initiative : China’s Perspective’in (Eds)Kundu, threat of OBOR- Nivedita, Sharma,B.K.”China’s One Belt One Road: 1. CPEC passes through POK, which is illegally Initiative, Challenges and Prospects” Vij Books India occupied by Pakistan. It is based on the rationale of Pvt.Ltd,2016. the 1963 boundary agreement between Pakistan and 2. Panda,Jagannath”India China relations:Politics of China. India does not accept the legality of this Resources, Identity and Authority in a Multipolar World agreement. Therefore the construction work of China Order”,Volume 32 of Routeledge Advances in South in POK should be strongly opposed by India. Asian Studies,Francis &Taylor,2016.pp-79-84 2. India should ask China to openly explain its position 3. http://ignca.nic.in/mausam.htm on the CPEC in the disputed territory of POK. If 4. https://www.keralatourism.org/news/unesco- China infringes India’s Sovereignty, India should support-spice-route/1692 increase its commercial ventures in the South China 5. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ Sea, thereby mounting an indirect pressure on the so economy/policy/india-plans-cotton-ancient-maritime- called Sovereignty of China in the South China Sea. routes-to-counter-chinas-ambitions/articleshow/ 3. Gilgit and Baltistan should be cautiously and closely 46952190.cms monitored. Even minor incidents should be taken up 6. (Eds)Fels, Enrico, Vu, Truong-Minh,”Power as warning signals. India should regularly include Politics in Asia’s contested Waters:Territorial disputes discussions on Gilgit-Baltistan and its activities in the in the South China Sea”Springer,2016,pp3-5 International forums. 7. Ibid,pps 404-409 4. It is suggested that India should constantly explore 8. Panda,Jagannath”India China relations:Politics of to expand its road, railways and pipeline networks in Resources, Identity and Authority in a Multipolar World South Asia as well as in Central Asia. The stalled Order”,Volume 32 of Routeledge Advances in South projects should be immediately warmed up. A Asian Studies,Francis &Taylor,2016,pp 87-92 revamping of the procedures for clearances is 9. Jaffrelot,Christopher,”Pakistan: Nationalism required. A better co-ordination between the different without a Nation”Zed books,2002 pp-211 ministries is the need of the hour. 10. (Eds) Kaul ,Shyam&Kachru,Onkar,”Jammu, 5. India has leverage over China in its soft power. Kashmir,Laddakh:Ringside Views”,Atlantic English, Yoga and software among others should be Publishers and Dist.,1998,pp-7 more vigorously spread in the world. India should 11. https://thewire.in/3018/why-india-is-bringing gilgit- attempt to make a strong appeal to the Chinese baltistan-back-into-the-kashmir-equation/ population, youth in particular.

72 World Focus July 2017 Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy Dr. Aparna Banerjee

The State of Jammu and Kashmir had long determination. Democratic development was limited been a seat of political issue because of the conflict in Kashmir until the late 1970s, and by 1988, many of between India and Pakistan since Independence over the democratic reforms introduced by the Indian the claims of territorial limits of Kashmir valley and Government had been reversed. Non-violent channels its adjoining areas, popularly known as the Pak for expressing discontent were thereafter limited and occupied Jammu and Kashmir region. This paper caused a dramatic increase in support for insurgents therefore attempts to analyse the economic advocating violent secession from India. The year performance of the State of Jammu and Kashmir in of 1984 saw a pronounced rise in terrorist violence in terms of the growth of industry, trade, tourism and Kashmir. Post-1987 insurgency occurred in Indian employment generation under such political turmoil administered Kashmir when a catalyst for the in recent globalization period. In doing so, the paper insurgency resulted in formation of armed insurgent also have tried to explain how such cross border wars, groups. In July 1988 a series of demonstrations, mutual conflicts and skirmishes over the years have strikes and attacks on the Indian Government began adversely affected the cross border trade specially, the Kashmir Insurgency with a total death of almost LOC trade and small scale industrial sector (other thousands of people as a result of the turmoil in Jammu traditional specialized industries such as handicrafts, and Kashmir. Protest movements created to voice khadi and village industries, handlooms, horticulture, Kashmir’s disputes and grievances with the Indian floriculture and sericulture etc.), for which once the government, specifically the Indian Military, being state would had been boasted of. active in Jammu and Kashmir since 1989.

Introduction In mid-1999, alleged insurgents and Pakistani A territorial conflict primarily between India and soldiers from Pakistani Kashmir infiltrated Jammu and Pakistan, popularly known as the had Kashmir with the start of 1999 Conflict in Kargil. started just after the partition of India in 1947, with a During the winter season, Indian forces regularly minor role being played by China at times. India and move down to lower altitudes, as severe climatic Pakistan had so far fought three wars over Kashmir, conditions make it almost impossible for them to guard namely, Indo-Pakistani Wars of 1947 and 1965 and the high peaks near the Line of Control. This practice Kargil War of 1999. The two countries have also is followed by both India and Pakistan Army. The been involved in several skirmishes over the control terrain makes it difficult for both sides to maintain a of the Siachen Glacier. India claims the entire state strict border control over Line of Control. The of Jammu and Kashmir, and from 2010, administers insurgents took advantage of this and occupied vacant approximately 43% of the region, controlling Jammu, mountain peaks in the Kargil range overlooking the the Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, and the Siachen Glacier. highway in Indian Kashmir that connects Pakistan administers approximately 37% of Jammu Srinagar and Leh. By blocking the highway, they and Kashmir, namely Azad Kashmir and Gilgit- could cut off the only link between the Kashmir Valley Baltistan. China currently administers Demchok and Ladakh. This resulted in a large-scale conflict district, the Shaksgam Valley, and the Aksai Chin between the Indian and Pakistani armies. The final region which has been disputed by India since China stage involved major battles by Indian and Pakistani took Aksai Chin during the Sino-Indian War of 1962. forces resulting in India recapturing most of the The root of conflict is in Kashmir Valley between the territories held by Pakistani forces. Fears of the Kargil Kashmiri insurgents and the Indian government based War turning into a nuclear war provoked the then- on the demand for a local autonomy and self- United States President Bill Clinton to pressure

Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy 73 Pakistan to retreat. The Pakistan Army withdrew their to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, as per Instrument remaining troops from the area, thus ending the of Accession which specifies that the State must conflict. India regained control of the Kargil peaks, concur in the application of laws by Indian parliament, which they now patrol and monitor all year long. except those that pertain to Communications, Defence and Foreign Affairs. Central Government In 2000s Al-Qaeda and its affiliates seriously could not exercise its power to interfere in any other got involved in scenario in Pakistan-administered areas of governance of the state. Kashmir’s accession Kashmir with tacit approval of Pakistan’s Inter- to India was provisional, and conditional on a Services Intelligence agency (ISI) and organised a plebiscite, and for this reason had a different campaign of terror in Kashmir to provoke conflict constitutional status to other Indian states. In October between India and Pakistan. Al-Qaeda 2015 Jammu and Kashmir High Court said that Article and Taliban operatives in Pakistan-administered 370 is “permanent” and Jammu and Kashmir did not Kashmir also helped terrorists, already being trained merge with India the way other princely states merged in Afghanistan, to infiltrate Indian-administered but retained special status and limited sovereignty Kashmir. under Indian constitution.

2010 Kashmir Unrest July 2016 The 2010 Kashmir unrest was a series of protests in On 8 July 2016, a popular militant leader Burhan the Muslim majority Kashmir Valley in Jammu and Muzaffar Wani was cornered by the security forces Kashmir which started in June 2010 and tensions and killed. Following his death, protests and remained till September 2010. The unrest erupted after demonstrations had taken root, thus, leading to an alleged fake encounter of a local youth with security “amplified instability” in the Kashmir valley. Curfews force. Next, thousands of youths, separatists had been imposed in all 10 districts of Kashmir and and Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group over 40 civilians died and over 2000 injured in clashes pelted security forces with rocks, burned government with the police. More than 600 have pellet injuries, offices and attacked railway stations and official many of them may lose their eyesight. To prevent vehicles in steadily intensifying violence. These volatile rumours, cellphone and internet services had protests involved the ‘Quit Jammu Kashmir been blocked, and newspapers had also been Movement’ launched by the Hurriyat Conference led restricted in many parts of the state. by Syed Ali Shah Geelani and , who had called for the complete demilitarisation of September 2016 Jammu and Kashmir. An attack by four militants on an Indian Army base on 18 September 2016, also known as the 2016 Uri October 2014 attack in Indian-ruled Kashmir, again created cross- In October 2014, Indian and Pakistani troops traded border terrorism which resulted in the death of 19 gunfire over their border in the divided Himalayan soldiers as well as the militants themselves led by the region of Kashmir, killing at least four civilians and militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed. On the Pakistani worsening tensions between the longtime rivals. The side, military alertness was raised and some Pakistan small-arms and mortar exchanges, which Indian International Airlines flights were suspended. officials called the worst violation of a 2003 ceasefire, The political scenario can be shortly depicted under left 18 civilians wounded in India and another three three phases with the nature of political brawl as in Pakistan. Tens of thousands of people fled their discussed below: homes on both sides after the violence erupted on Indian Administered Jammu and Kashmir 5 October. Moreover, it was found that nine civilians (i) Phase of Autonomy & Plebiscite Conundrum in Pakistan and seven in India were killed in (1947–1953) consecutive three nights of fighting. (ii) Phase of integration & Rise of Kashmiri Nationalism (1954–1974) According to Article 370 of Indian (iii) Rise of the separatist movement and Islamism constitution, a special autonomous status was granted (1984-1986)

74 World Focus July 2017 Reasons behind the Dispute Cross-Border Troubles The Kashmir Conflict arose from the Partition of The border and the Line of Control separating Indian British India in 1947 into modern India and Pakistan. and Pakistani Kashmir passes through some Both countries subsequently made claims to Kashmir, exceptionally difficult terrain. The world’s highest based on the history and religious affiliations of the battleground, the Siachen Glacier, is a part of this Kashmiri people. The princely state of Jammu and difficult-to-man boundary. Even with 200,000 military Kashmir, which lies strategically in the north-west of personnel, India maintains that it is infeasible to place the subcontinent bordering Afghanistan and China, enough men to guard all sections of the border was formerly ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh under throughout the various seasons of the year. Pakistan the paramountcy of British India. In geographical and has indirectly acquiesced its role in failing to prevent legal terms, the Maharaja could have joined either of “cross-border terrorism” when it agreed to curb such the two new countries. Although urged by the activities after intense pressure from the Bush Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten of Burma, to determine administration in mid-2002.The Government of the future of his state before the transfer of power Pakistan has repeatedly claimed that by constructing took place, Singh demurred. In October 1947, a fence along the line of control, India is violating incursions by Pakistan took place leading to a war, the Shimla Accord. India claims the construction of as a result of which the state of Jammu and Kashmir the fence has helped decrease armed infiltration into remains divided between India and Pakistan. Two- Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan’s relation with thirds of the former princely state of Jammu and militants India has furnished documentary evidence Kashmir, comprising Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, and to the United Nations that Pakistan supports Kashmiri the sparsely populated Buddhist area of Ladakh are militants, leading to a ban on some terrorist controlled by India while one-third is administered by organisations, which Pakistan has yet to enforce. In Pakistan. The latter includes a narrow strip of land 2009, the President of Pakistan Asif Zardari asserted called Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas, at a conference in Islamabad that Pakistan had indeed comprising the Gilgit Agency, Baltistan, and the former created Islamic militant groups as a strategic tool for kingdoms of Hunza and Nagar. Attempts to resolve use in its geostrategic agenda and “to attack Indian the dispute through political discussions have been forces in Jammu and Kashmir”. It has been found unsuccessful. In September 1965, war again broke that that there is a clear connection between out between Pakistan and India. The United Nations Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and three called for another cease-fire, and peace was restored major militant outfits operating in Jammu and following the Tashkent Declaration in 1966, by which Kashmir, Lashkar-e-Tayiba, Jaish-e- both nations returned to their original positions along Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. The militants the demarcated line. After the 1971 war and the are provided with weapons, training, advice and creation of independent Bangladesh under the terms planning assistance in Punjab and Kashmir by the of the 1972 Simla Agreement between Prime ISI which is coordinating the shipment of arms from Minister Indira Gandhi of India and Zulfiqar Ali the Pakistani side of Kashmir to the Indian side, where Bhutto of Pakistan, it was agreed that neither country Muslim insurgents are waging a protracted war. would seek to alter the cease-fire line in Kashmir, Throughout the 1990s, the ISI maintained its which was renamed as the Line of Control, relationship with extremist networks and militants that “unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and it had established during the Afghan war to utilise in legal interpretations”. Numerous violations of the Line its campaign against Indian forces in Kashmir. Joint of Control have occurred, including incursions by Intelligence/North (JIN) has been accused of insurgents and Pakistani armed forces at Kargil conducting operations in Jammu and Kashmir and leading to the Kargil war. There have also been also Afghanistan. The Joint Signal Intelligence sporadic clashes on the Siachen Glacier, where the Bureau (JSIB) provides communications support to Line of Control is not demarcated and both countries groups in Kashmir. ISI acted as a kind of terrorist maintain forces at altitudes rising to 20,000 ft (6,100 m), conveyor belt radicalising young men in with the Indian forces serving at higher altitudes. the Madrassas of Pakistan and delivering them to training camps affiliated with or run by Al-Qaeda and

Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy 75 from there moving them into Jammu and Kashmir to Scale Industrial units in the state has gone up, there launch attacks. Almost about Rs. 24 million are paid are cases of sickness of units with some of them out per month by the ISI to fund its activities in Jammu having become non-functional and others simply and Kashmir. Pro-Pakistani groups were favoured untraceable due to this constant political unrest. From over other militant groups. Creation of six militant the Census data of Status of Small Scale Industries groups in Kashmir, which included Lashkar-e- (SSI Units), it is observed that almost 22709 units in Taiba (LeT), was aided by the ISI. ISI is still providing the Census year 2001-02 have decreased to 5825 protection and help to LeT. The Pakistan Army and units in the Census year 2006-07 as the rest have ISI also LeT volunteers to surreptitiously penetrate become Closed/ untraceable Units. Moreover, from from Pakistan Administrated Kashmir to Jammu and Table 1, a glance at Year-wise achievement under Kashmir. So, several times it is found that Pakistan Small Scale Industries over the years shows that from has been involved in training and arming underground 2011-12 to 2013-14, there had been a sharp fall in all militant groups to fight Indian forces in Kashmir. the cases i.e. lower number of registered units along with low employment generation and low Investment Economic Performance (Rs. in Crores) during the said period. Thus, Small Growth of State GDP Scale Industrial Sector had suffered a large set back The state of Jammu & Kashmir with its varied and in the globalisation period. diversified geographic, agro-climate and topographic features poses peculiar and unique problems of Small Scale Industries development. Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) Khadi & Village Industries of Jammu & Kashmir state during 2012-13 (at current Jammu and Kashmir Khadi and Village Industries prices) has increased to Rs. 75574.31 crores from Board, established in the year 1962, has played a vital Rs. 65758.52 crores of 2011- 12, thereby, registering role in generating employment for rural poor, a growth of 14.93% during 2012-13, finally with a unemployed youth and down-trodden artisans of the tremendous jump to Rs. 132,307 crores in the year state by providing financial and technical assistance 2016. for setting of micro and small industrial production units under various schemes which come under the Despite the growth of state GDP over the purview of All India Khadi and Village Industries decades in post globalization period, sluggish growth Commission, Government of India. The main of various economic sectors such as horticulture, objective of Jammu and Kashmir Khadi and Village floriculture, sericulture, industrial sector, tourism Industries Board, is to create employment sector, line of control trade, small scale industrial opportunities in rural areas by promoting various Khadi sector (such as handicrafts, handlooms, khadi and and Village Industrial activities and to impart training village industries), employment generation etc. have to the rural artisans in various crafts. We saw an been found. This is mainly because of the continuous overall decreasing trend in production, sale and political turmoil between Pakistan and India over Pak employment in Khadi industry from 2010-11 to 2013- occupied Jammu and Kashmir, which had poorly 14. affected the entire economic condition of the state, thereby adversely affecting its production, industry, Handicrafts volumes and value of exports, imports and trade, Handicraft activities occupy an important position in foreign trade exchange earnings, together with the the economic structure of Jammu and Kashmir State employment generation potential. as they are best suited to the state, because of the following inherent characteristics. They are more Industrial Performance environment friendly, more labour intensive and less Rise of Industrial Sickness is almost a common capital intensive in nature, thereby, having greater phenomenon in the growth of industries, especially, scope for employment generation at a large scale. those in small scale sector in the state of Jammu and The Kashmir handicraft products have earned Kashmir due to the continuous political unrest between worldwide fame for their attractive designs, functional India and Pakistan. Although the number of Small utility and high quality craftsmanship. In absence of

76 World Focus July 2017 other manufacturing industries in the state, handicrafts prominent place in trade of the State and have shown remained a key economic activity from time a decreasing trend over the years during 2010-11 to immemorial. The artistic imagination and 2013-14. craftsmanship of the Artisans reflected through a wide range of products, has delighted the connoisseurs The Government is making all efforts to world over for centuries. Crafts like Woollen Shawls, promote exports from Jammu and Kashmir State. Crewel, Namdha, Chain Stitch, Wood Carving, Papier State’s fruit, especially dry fruits are also exported to Machie, Costume Jewellery, Kani Shawls and the other countries and in turn earns substantial foreign Carpets hold a significant share in the overall exchange. The Quantity of total dry fruits exported production and export of the State. Silken carpets in (in MTs) has decreased from 9796.65 in 2011-12 to particular constitute a specialty having no parallel in 5476.08 in 2012-13 and the foreign exchange earned quality and design at national level and, therefore, (in Rs. in crore) on horticulture produce has occupy an important position in the international consecutively decreased from Rs. 232.86 crores in market. The handicraft sector of the state also has 2011-12 to Rs.204.75 crores in 2012-13. great contribution towards foreign exchange earnings to the state and country in particular. We have seen Line of Control (LOC) Trade also a sharp fall in the Exports of some items of India’s trade links with its neighbouring countries such Handicrafts Goods (Rs. in Crore) such as carpets, as China, Central Asia and East Asian nations are woollen shawls, papier machie and other items. centuries old as India believes in maintaining friendly relations with global world especially with Moreover, the value of production of woollen shawls neighbouring countries including Pakistan.Trade had also declined from 702.20 (Rs. in Crore) in 2011- through Nathula Pass accounted for 80% of total 12 to 656.30 (Rs. in Crore) in 2012-13. cross border trade between India and its neighbouring countries in early 1900s. For maintaining cordial Horticulture Sector relation with Pakistan a number of initiatives have Jammu & Kashmir State is well known for its been taken to initiate peace process that could help horticultural produce both in India and abroad. The resolve and address the political conflict between India state offers good scope for cultivation of horticultural and Pakistan besides normalizing bilateral relations crops, covering a variety of temperate fruits like apple, and economic cooperation between the two nations pear, peach, plum, apricot, almond, cherry and sub for their mutual development and growth. Owing to tropical fruits like mango, guava, citrus litchi, phalsa proximity and socio-cultural and ethnic relations, and Berete. Besides, medicinal and aromatic plants, various socio economic conditions, physical, political floriculture, mushroom, plantation crops and and environmental aspects of the neighbouring vegetables are cultivated in the state. Apart from this, countries or borders, however, govern or decide the well known spices like saffron and black Zeera are intensity, volume and nature of the cross-country or also cultivated in some pockets of the state. cross-border trade to develop the economic linkage Horticulture is gaining momentum in the state as its and dependability automatically of two neighbouring contribution to GSDP remains around 7-8 percent countries or borders for the mutual benefit of the over the past few years. Horticulture development is people of borders. one of the thrust areas in the state which involves directly or indirectly many people associated with it, Since partition of India, the events and policy thereby resulting in the generation of higher incomes trends have led to distances and created differences in the rural areas, thus improving the quality of life in between India and Pakistan. Nevertheless in terms villages. It is found also that the overall production of history, culture, language and religions, both of both dry and fresh fruits has been recorded to be countries have number of common features. Jammu decreasing largely from 2010-11 to 2012-13. and Kashmir being at the terminal end of the country, along with poor connectivity, remoteness and other Also, Export of fruit outside the State, and disadvantages, is one of the sensitive states. Opening Import of fruits and vegetables have occupied a of borders and bringing about economic integration

Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy 77 with various regions of the state was very essential the holy shrines of Vaishno Devi, located in the Trikuta for stability, peace and prosperity. For achieving these Hills, and Amarnath, need special mention as they objectives, India and Pakistan have developed has significant impact on the state’s economy, being mutually agreed Confidence Building Measures the largest foreign exchange earners of lumpsum (CBM) - structures and agreements, undertaken by amount. It was estimated in 2007 that the Vaishno Govt. of India which includes Line of Control (LOC) Devi yatra contributed ¹ 4.75 billion (US$74 million) Trade in Jammu and Kashmir State from the days of to the local economy annually a few years ago. The their independence. The present LOC trade is also contribution should be significantly greater now as the result of a series of CBMs during the past few the numbers of Indian visitors have increased years. The historic decision to start trade across the considerably. But, foreign tourists have been slower LOC in the divided Jammu and Kashmir was the to return. The British government still advises against outcome of a high level meeting between the Prime all travel to Jammu and Kashmir with the exception Minister of India and the President of Pakistan during of the cities of Jammu and Srinagar, travel between April, 2005 to May 2–3, 2006 as a part of Confidence these two cities on the Jammu-Srinagar highway, and Building Measures (CBMs), where it was agreed that the region of Ladakh, while Canada excludes the the Cross LOC trade would be by way of truck entire region excepting Leh. Besides Kashmir, several services; the list of items for trade would be identified; areas in the Jammu region have a lot of tourist and the exchange of delegations between the potential such as Bhau Fort in Jammu city is the major Chambers of Commerce on both sides would be attraction for the tourists and Bage-e-Bahu is another facilitated. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) local aquarium tourist destination, established by the pursued the main recommendations with the State Fisheries Department. The state’s recent Government of Pakistan, whereas the Ministry of increase in violence has adversely affected the Home Affairs (MHA) pursued the issue of creation economy by decreasing the number of tourist arrivals. of the requisite infrastructure at the crossing points in Jammu and Kashmir to develop Land Customs Overview of Employment Scenario in J&K Stations (now Trade Facilitation Centres), for Uri- Unemployment is a social issue of serious concern at Muzaffarabad Trade Route at Salamabad and for the present, both at National as well as State levels. Poonch-Rawalkote Trade Route at Chakkan-da- But the state of Jammu and Kashmir, unlike most of Bagh, after identifying suitable land for the purpose. the states of the country has been facing the problem of disguised unemployment, since the start of conflict The quantity and value of Imports and between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Exports between the two countries in the years 2011- Kashmir. Census 2011 shows that 28.8% of the total 12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 shows a sharp fall in Export workers are cultivators, 12.7% are agricultural and Import data of trade of Jammu and Kashmir to labourers and the remaining 58.5% are workers Pakistan, as LOC trade. engaged in other activities including household industries. Work opportunities, however, have not kept Tourism pace with the increasing population. The problem of Before the insurgency intensified in 1989, tourism unemployment gains more importance because of formed an important part of the Kashmiri economy. higher incidence of unemployment among the The tourism economy in the Kashmir valley was worst educated section of youth in the State. Almost 70% hit due to the constant political unrest between India of the population is directly or indirectly dependent and Pakistan over hold of Pak occupied Kashmir on agriculture and allied activities which continue to region. be a subsistence sector. However, it may be mentioned that near about 70% of the said marginal workers Pilgrimage Tourists are associated with the agricultural and allied sector However, every year, thousands of Hindu pilgrims contributing very marginally to the total production, visit the holy shrines of Jammu and the Buddhist thus, giving rise to the disguised unemployment in monasteries of Ladakh which continues to remain agricultural sector. To avoid this situation, out of the popular pilgrimage and tourism destinations. Of them said 16.79 lakh of marginal workers, half of this

78 World Focus July 2017 working force suffers from disguised unemployment the state of Jammu and Kashmir in northern India, who can contribute positively on being shifted to the together with its consequent adverse impact on both other sectors of economy without affecting the total the entire economy of the state and overall India over agricultural production and yield productivity in the the years, even in post globalisation period. However, State. In the absence of desirable industrial growth recent Eco tourism workshops, under government and limited scope for absorption in the private sector, initiatives first held in April 2011 in Jammu, followed such decline in the disguised unemployment could not by more in Leh and Srinagar to sensitize people may be possible; rather many have been rendered raise our hopes and expectations to increase more unemployed and have been found to have joined the tourism and trade in Kashmir in the near future. ranks of job seekers. References Conclusion 1. Economic Survey, 2013-14, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Jammu & Kashmir, Government of Jammu & Kashmir. It is found that the continuous threats to the outside 2. Economic Survey, 2014-15, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Jammu & Kashmir, Government of Jammu & Kashmir. world as posed by irregular, sudden conflicts, quarrels 3. Directorate of Horticulture (P&M), Jammu & Kashmir. and even wars in the Pak occupied Kashmir region 4. Agriculture Production Department, Jammu & Kashmir. 5. Statistical Abstract of India, 2012, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, has marred the glorious history of India’s trade and New Delhi. tourism route links with its neighbouring countries via 6. Census of India-Various Issues, www.census.gov.in

PM Modi delivers hard message to Pakistan; refers to Gilgit, Balochistan and PoK in Independence Day 2016 speech Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day 2016 speech raked up the issue of PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and Balochistan, thanking people from these regions for their words of praise. By: FE Online | Updated: August 16, 2016 5:12 PM

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day 2016 speech raked up the issue of PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and Balochistan, thanking people from these regions for their words of praise. “In the last few days, there have been talks of Gilgit, PoK and Balochistan. People from these places have expressed their gratitude and have thanked me. I am very grateful and thankful to them. I have never met them, they live far away, but the fact that they are appreciating me is a matter of respect for the people of India,” the Prime Minister said. In his concluding remarks at the all-party meet on Jammu and Kashmir, PM Modi had said, “the time has come when Pakistan shall have to answer to the world for the atrocities committed by it against people in Baluchistan and PoK.” His remarks had been welcomed by people of Balochistan, who had thanked the Prime Minister for his concern. Modi’s comments also come at a time when Gilgit- Baltistan is on fire after massive protests erupted against a crackdown by Pakistan’s security forces. Gilgit-Baltistan is a part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). In his Independence Day speech, PM Modi also spoke strongly against terrorism. “This country will never bend before terrorism. More than 35,000 jawans have lost their lives fighting at the border so that we can stay peacefully here,” he said. “To the youth who have taken up gun, I urge them to return to their parents, shun violence. If we have to strengthen India’s democracy, we must shun violence and embrace humanity,” PM Modi said.

(Courtesy: http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/pm-modi-delivers-hard-message-to- pakistan-refers-to-gilgit-balochistan-and-pok-in-independence-day-2016-speech/347674/)

Impact of Pak Occupied Kashmir on Indian Economy 79 Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns Dr. Prasanta Sahoo

Introduction the operation to dismantle the formation of terror The Septermber 2016 surgical strikes conducted by infrastructure across the LoC in PoK. India in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) have once again highlighted the issue of terrorism in the History of Terrorism in India region. PoK has become the hotbed of terrorism due Being located in the center of South Asia, India has to its massive terror infrastructure and widespread been prone to the attacks of cross-border terrorism. network across the border. Being close to the Line There is no country in the region not under the threat of Control (LoC), PoK has been used by Pakistan as of terrorism. All the political leaders have one voice the launchpad for terrorists intrude into the Indian saying Pakistan is sponsoring and spreading terrorism Territory. India has impinged with Pakistan sponsor in the region. It has claimed more lives in India than terrorism since a long time. The main motive of anywhere else in the region. Pakistan’s main target Pakistan is to destabilize Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). is to disturb Kashmir, unstable it politically and ruin Pakistan’s anger became double after the shameless economically. Kashmir is the main reason for India- defeat by Indian army in 1971. It was the first time Pakistan military hostility, including three major wars under the able leadership of Prime Minster (PM) they fought. During the 25 years of terrorism in the Narendra Modi, India reacted through the surgical Valley, 43,000 people have been killed and over strikes in PoK in the response to the terrorist attack 850,000 have displaced. The aggression against on the Uri army camp in Kashmir on September 2016. Kashmir continues to be followed as a policy by Interestingly, Pakistan has been defeated by India in Pakistan. By 1989, the terrorists started using three wars since the independence in 1947. All of sophisticated Chinese and the USA made weapons the wars were directly or indirectly related to Kashmir. and extensive explosives provided by Pakistan. More In the past fifteen years, the two countries have been than 20,000 Kashmiris have been trained and armed embroiled in four military crises. Furthermore, the by Pakistan. In 1987, a disputed state West Waziristan, Pakistan’s tribal region along the election motivated for the insurgency/terrorism in border areas of Afghanistan is well-known as the Kashmir. India treats it as terrorism, while the “haven for terrorists”. Daniel Byman also wrote that separatists of Kashmir and Pakistan call it as a “Pakistan is probably the most active sponsor of freedom struggle. As per the South Asia Terrorism terrorism” in the 21st century. Pakistan’s former Portal at present, there are more than six deadly ambassador to the U.S., Husain Haqqani, has terrorist groups along with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, active accepted Pakistan sponsors terrorism, which was in the Kashmir region. later confirmed by President Pervez Musharraf. PoK is a very different and unique region altogether. History of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir This is a land that Pakistan forcibly occupied and After the document of accession signed between India Punjabi-Urdu-Sharia domination imposed. It is proved and King Hari Singh, Indian forces landed in Kashmir that Pakistan has built massive terror infrastructure and stalled the intrusion by Pakistanis. However, there creating a serious security problem for India. suddenly PM, Jawaharlal Nehru declared a unilateral These terrorists are always on the move-on mode ceasefire and took the issue to the United Nations into India’s side. The last couple of months, the Indian (UN). The then Indian Army General, KM Cariappa side of Kashmir has been going through violent requested to grant 24 hours of time so that Indian protests and stone pelting by the misleading youth army can take control over the whole Kashmir but instigated and supported by the Pakistan army, ISI was denied by Nehru. Nearly half of the occupied and terror groups. However, India has just started 80 World Focus July 2017 Kashmir was left with the illegal occupation of spent on training, weapons and ammunition for Pakistan. Earlier, Pakistan sent in about 12,000 Kashmir militants. Now there is a sharp rise in the Pathans to loot and plunder Kashmir. After taking recruitment of locals into militancy like Burhan Wani the issue to the UN Security Council, the Indian and Sabzar Bhat. leaders understood the real game of Western countries behind it. Later, the Kashmir controlled by Pakistan Sponsoring Terrorism Against India Pakistan came to known as PoK with Muzaffarabad According to the author Daniel Byman, “Pakistan is its capital and the part with India known as J&K. probably today’s most active sponsor of The territory of Kashmir has been divided as PoK, terrorism.” Despite this Pakistan has never been listed J&K, including ‘Ladakh’ and areas such as Aksai by the US State Department as a terrorist state. The Chin and Shaksam Valley. Three parts are under the former president of Pakistan Pervez control of three nuclear-power countries of the Musharraf confirmed that his forces trained militant subcontinent, i.e. India, Pakistan and China. The groups to fight India in J&K. He also accepted that territory also borders Pakistan’s Punjab and Gilgit- ISI cultivated the Taliban after 2001. India has been Baltistan provinces to the south and Khyber regularly speaking that Pakistan has been involved in Pakhtunkhwa province to the west. The total area of training and arming the local insurgent/militant groups the Kashmir region is 2.22 lakh sq kms, out of which in Kashmir. ISI has been funding all the terrorist approximately 35 percent that is about to 78.000 sq groups. The FBI suggests from the Satellite imagery kms is PoK. the existence of several terrorist camps in Pakistan. Pakistan is said to be a haven for these terrorist Existing Terror Networks and Infrastructure in groups. The Kashmiri terrorists, including Saeed and PoK Lakhvi, are heroes in Pakistan. Taliban, Terror training camps have been thriving in PoK for Haqqani, Osama Bin Laden and Zawahiri are ideals years. There are about 2,500 militants in various for many Pakistani youths. In the 2001, Pakistan camps in PoK and actively supported by ISI and helped evacuation of about 5000 top leadership of Pakistan army. As per the government sources, there the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan encircled exist of 42 militant camps, 25 in PoK and 17 in other by NATO forces. The LeT began carrying out parts of Pakistan. Headquarter of these organizations operations in J&K in the 1990s itself. President Asif is based in Karachi but functions mainly through PoK. Ali Zardari had admitted in July 2010 that the militants There are nearly 29 subversive groups functioning in had been “deliberately created and nurtured” by past J&K with one foot planted in PoK. The Indian Army governments. claims, nearly 20,000 young Kashmiris have been trained and armed by Pakistan. On 3rd January 2012, India’s Security Concerns the army claimed that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) was India is facing many problems on the border security training a group of 21 women terrorists in PoK to measures. According to Prakash Singh, former infiltrate into India. These terrorists are trained by Director General, (BSF), “The Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi at Muzaffarabad camp. level of security arrangements along a particular Following surgical strikes, over 300 terrorists from border would depend upon the political relations, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), LeT and Hizbul economic linkages and the ethno-religious ties Mujahideen flees from PoK camps. The recruitment between people across the borders.” Pakistan and camps in PoK exist between Muzaffarabad and India have fought almost four wars, directly or Lahore. From here, the terrorists are sent to other indirectly linked to J&K. Direct accessibility and the camps to learn about arms, navigation and radio porous nature of the borders allow insurgents groups’ telephony. The recent surgical strikes wiped out eight tactical flexibility. Technological developments, quick terror launchpads. Sources say Pakistan pumped in passage of information and transfer of funds to around Rs. 100 crore to fuel terror in J&K. According terrorist groups have changed the perspective of to reports, the ISI has been sending the funds through border security. The militants giving military training Hizbul Mujahedeen chief Syed Salahuddin and Jamat- to young Kashmiri Muslims and providing ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed. The money is sophisticated weapons. The training is given by the

Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns 81 ISI, either directly or through religious fundamentalists militant group JeM was involved in the planning and and Jihad organizations located in PoK. The terrorist execution. That time the Kashmir Valley was at the groups have also been trying to bitter the Hindu- center of unrest, which had already claimed 85 Muslims cordial relationship within India. The JuD is civilians killed and thousands injured in clashes with an adherent to the principles of Sunni Wahhabism security forces. The reason for Kashmir unrest is and seeks primarily to establish a Universal Islamic the killing of Burhan Wani, a Kashmir militant Caliphate in the lands that were once under Muslim leader. On 29th September 2016, the Indian Army rule. In an interview in 1999, Hafiz Saeed declared conducted its first ever “surgical strikes” against jihad and announced to break-up and completely suspected militants in PoK. Indian Director General dissolve India into Pakistan. of Military Operations (DGMO), Ranbir Singh said that the army has completely destroyed seven terrorist India’s Strategy to Dismantle Terror launchpads and killed more than 40 deadliest Infrastructure terrorists. Earlier, it was observed that a large number Top military officers believe short-term actions will of terrorists gathering along the LoC with the objective not damage terrorists’ capabilities much. A determined of crossing the border. In such a scenario surgical and constant campaign is needed. As per India’s strikes were considered the best option. Furthermore, military and intelligence assessment, PoK hosts over by limiting the strike to terrorist launchpads, India 40 terror training camps in PoK. There are also maintained the requisite balance between resolving around 50 launchpads having the capability of hosting to punish the terrorists and keeping a low military 2000 terrorists. Interestingly, these sites are fully threshold as a responsible state. The strike achieved protected by the Pakistan Army. The Army predicts, the intended impact within a short time frame as now Pakistan will attempt to push more terrorists to planned. seek ‘revenge’ of the surgical strikes. The surgical strike was a perfect blow to the terrorists. PM, Modi’s 1. Political Challenges for India statement on the Balochistan turmoil was the best i). Internal Difficulties strategy to curtail Pakistan’s Kashmir rant. This has (a) Hypocrisy of Left-Liberals worked as an antidote which impact is already visible Burhan Wani’s death in Kashmir by the security in Pakistan. G Parthasarathy strongly believes that forces has once again opened up a huge debate India should exploit the Balochistan turmoil as much between left-liberals and nationalists in the as possible. Scholars argue India should now country. As per left-liberals Kashmir is a dispute and ‘internationalize’ the issue of PoK and Balochistan. the plebiscite can effectively resolve it. Now, all the India should convince the world body to force “Kashmiri militants” who are sponsored by Pakistan Pakistan over terrorism. After the 2016 Uri attack, and their Jehadi outfits are freedom fighters for them. India adopted a hard-soft cocktail strategy in dealing Nobody should forget the anti-India, slogan rose in with Pakistan and terrorism. First, Delhi successfully JNU campus and in support of freedom for used the diplomatic channel to isolate Pakistan and Kashmir. They also put forth a bizarre argument of second, it used hard/military action to destroy the victimization by the state through suppression of the terror structures. India has announced: either Pakistan peoples’ voice. And to get freedom from it, they have destroys the terror structures or Delhi will do it in its taken up the guns. They also argue the security forces own way. Now Indian military requests a free hand violating the human rights of Kashmir people including to deal with the terror and Kashmir situation. Rajesh of terrorists. They support terrorists and oppose the Rajagopalan observes that India needs an effective state action on them. They condemned the death of counterinsurgency strategy focusing on small-unit terrorists like Burhan Wani, Afzal Guru, Yakub operations. Memon, Ishrat Jahan and much more. They leveled it as the mockery of Indian democracy and judicial Uri Attack and Surgical Strikes system. They have also blamed PM, Modi, the Indian On 18th September 2016, four heavily armed terrorists army and the Army Chief Bipin Rawat. They call attacked an army camp in Uri in J&K. The attack Modi as Adolf Hitler, Indian Army as German Army killed 19 soldiers and left 19 seriously injured. The and Rawat as General Dyer of British India.

82 World Focus July 2017 Unfortunately, the same groups don’t argue in the Washington-based think-tank. According to the support of the atrocity against Kashmir Pandits. They Hurriyat Conference, Kashmir is an “unfinished keep complete silence over the atrocities committed agenda of Partition”. The Hurriyat Conference by the Pakistan army with people of PoK, Gilgit and perceives itself as the sole representative of the Balochistan. They also pressurize the Indian Kashmiri people. Pakistan has been openly supporting government for peace-talk even when Pakistan Hurriyats. A three-member delegation from openly admits it supports terrorists in Kashmir. the Pakistan High Commission led by Abdul Basit met Hurriyat leader Syed Shah Geelani at his Malviya (b) Trap by the Opposition Parties Nagar, New Delhi, residence in March 2015 and It seems the Opposition parties in India have made a assured Geelani of full support. Recently, an India trap for the Modi government on Kashmir problem. Today special investigation team caught top Kashmiri In India, Kashmir issue figures prominently on the separatists on camera admitting received funds from agenda of foreign policy and national politics. The Pakistan. Congress Party views it has to be sorted out by a dialogue with involving Kashmiri separatists. The ii). External Conspiracy Congress party once believed that the problem must (a) Too Smart America be solved by the UNSC. The BJP is of the opinion Since the independence, America stood oppose to that the Kashmir issue should not be politicized. The India for its leading role in the Non-Alignment party opines that due to the faulty policy formulation Movement (NAM). Simultaneously, it supported by previous governments, the Kashmir problem Pakistan for becoming its Cold War ally. When the amplified. The CPI(M) has also criticized the Kashmir issue came up in the UNSC, US immediately Congress government for not taking adequate political favoured Pakistan. Even there was a period when initiatives to resolve Kashmir issue. However, political America was directly involved in the Kashmir matter. parties have expressed unanimity on the issue of While for US and Pakistan, Kashmir is an unfinished terrorism. Sheikh Abdullah also called a few matter product of partition politics, for India, it arose Opposition leaders at his Delhi residence. Though, because of Islamabad’s aggression. As a result, Opposition parties have assured cooperation for the Kashmir issue continued to vitiate the relations government’s efforts to restore peace. Sitaram between India and the US. The US continues to seek Yechury, of CPI(M) said: “The government must start a role in the Kashmir issue directly or indirectly. In the dialogue process with all stakeholders in the 1953, Sheikh Abdullah meeting with a former US Kashmir Valley.” Arvind Kejriwal, Sanjay Nirupam, presidential candidate sparked tension between India Sitaram Yechuri, P Chidambaram, Digvijay Singh and and the US. It was believed that Abdullah was many other opposition leaders claimed for the conspiring with the Americans for their support for authenticity of the Surgical Strike. the independence of Kashmir in exchange for military base facilities in the state. In the 1965 India-Pakistan (c) Hurriyat and Pakistan Sympathizers war the US attitude was clearly pro-Pakistan. The It is said that there are more Hurriyat supporters in same was seen during the Bangladesh liberation war India than in Pakistan. It has been seen most opposition in 1971. In 1993 President Bill Clinton supported leaders, noted writers, actors and many academicians Pakistan’s allegation over the “human rights violation” have been advocating for inclusion of Hurriyat in the in Kashmir. However, the 9/11 terrorist attacks on peace talks on Kashmir problem. In reality, the All America have changed the US policy in favour of Parties Hurriyat Conference is a platform of the Delhi forever. separatists and insurgents in Kashmir. The Hurriyat was formed on 31st July 1993 by the replacement of (b) Chinese Cunningness Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) pro- During the UNGA meeting, on 22nd September 2016, independence ideology by pro-Pakistan, ISI- Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said his country would supported, imported terrorist outfits. There are other stand with Pakistan and will speak for it at every beliefs that the Hurriyat is a creation of the US forum. He said the international community should strategic interests in Kashmir and sponsored by a have a better understanding of Pakistan’s position on

Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns 83 Kashmir. He called Pakistan and China are “iron (a) Weak and Fragile but Nuclear Country brothers”. On 17th March 2017, Chinese Foreign Pakistan is one of the world’s fragile and economically Ministry said that development of CPEC will not deprived countries of the world. It does not have parity change China’s stance on Kashmir issue. China with the fast-growing India. However, it has been believes Kashmir is a leftover issue from history constantly trying to make parity with India, through between India and Pakistan. However, on 18th April allying with China and having nuclear weapons. It 2017, China invited India to participate in the Belt seems Pakistan has made the nuclear weapon as a and Road connectivity initiative. However, on 8th well-thought blackmail strategy against India. The February 2017, China blocked a US-India proposed threat of use of nuclear weapons by Jihadis has been ban on JeM chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist another concern for the international community. In in the UNSC. In 2004, China denied a member of the February 2016, Hillary Clinton, while talking to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) but , stated: “Pakistan is running full same year gained NSG membership. Recently, China speed to develop tactical nukes in their continuing opposed to the US backed India’s membership to the hostility with India.” Furthermore, the irresponsible 48-member NSG club. Surprisingly, China and Russia statement given by the Pakistan Defence Minister have supported India’s life membership in the on the use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in the time Shanghai Cooperation (2017). In recent years, China of need has ringed the alarm bell for the international and India have extended their relations through community. India had been blackmailed into accepting bilateral economic ties. Pakistan’s threat of use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons. Historically, Pakistan has successfully manipulated (c) Silent Mission of Russia its nuclear weapons status to thwart India from taking Nowadays, Russia’s growing closeness to Pakistan tough actions. Now the PM, Modi is seeking a has made India confused and worry. Immediately, diplomatic-military mixed retaliation. after the Uri attack, Russia announced its first ever joint military exercise with Pakistan army shocked (b) Non-NATO Strategic Ally India. The Russian Army confirmed that “The opening Pakistan joined the Western military alliance system ceremony of the Friendship 2016 drills will take place during the Cold War. In 2004, Pakistan had given the in Gilgit-Baltistan.” This wasn’t good news for India status of a major non-NATO ally of the United States. because Gilgit-Baltistan was part of the erstwhile J&K This special status had given for its cooperation state. For Pakistan, it was a big diplomatic towards the US initiated “War on Terror.” The parties win. Furthermore, over the last couple of years, to NATO believe an attack on any one of them as an Russia has attempted to expand its relationship with attack against all and together assist those attacked Pakistan. Pakistan and Russia are in the process of by taking actions. The US took advantage of the finalizing a huge military deal. Recently, both the situation Pakistan was going through; its economic countries signed an agreement for the construction difficulties and enmity with India. The first Pakistan- of a 1,100-kilometer gas pipeline from Lahore to US military Pact was concluded in 1954. This incident Karachi. Possibly, the new geostrategic environment which changed the face of global politics turned out in South Asia demands Russia to extend its diplomatic, to be a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. Pakistan is security and economic outreach. Russia is trying to one of the major recipients of US aid programmes. find new markets for its arms industry. Interestingly, The status also provides the benefit of close military Russia is now taking a new approach toward South proximity between their defence forces. India’s first Asia. reaction to the announcement was of surprise and condemnation. 2. Security Challenges India has to keep in mind some security and military (c) Closeness to China implications out of any adventure against Pakistan China-Pakistan relations are very old going on since without having calculated properly and strategically. 1948. Pakistan’s closeness to China has so much security and economic implications for India, which Delhi must not undermine. India defeated Pakistan

84 World Focus July 2017 in three wars but badly lost to China in 1962. China the atrocity at the hands of Pakistani security forces. sees India as its rival in South Asia as well as in Asia Exiled Baloch leaders and activists are taking part in in the near future. Beijing has taken advantage of the protest rallies against Pakistan and China for India-Pakistan traditional enmity. In the present constructing the CPEC. The protest rallies organized situation particularly after US-India strategic by Free Balochistan Movement (FBM) and led by partnership, China has shown extra closeness to exiled Baloch leaders. They organized weeklong Pakistan. Meanwhile, India is facing a massive protests outside the Chinese Embassy in . The security threat from the growing China-Pakistan Baloch are determined to resist the China and nexus. In the 1960s and 1970s, China supported the Pakistan nexus. Protesters alleged that Pakistan is Northeastern insurgents and this can happen once perpetrating massive human rights abuses to crush again. Likewise, China has taken a relatively even- the political aspirations of the people of Gilgit. handed approach on Kashmir by recognizing it to be Recently, a dozen of exiled Baloch activists in a ‘bilateral dispute’. More alarmingly, the Chinese Germany came out to chant anti-Pakistan protests are proposing building roads and pipeline projects in and loud Indian PM, Modi. Many of the Baloch Gilgit and PoK. In addition, China’s road belt initiative activists were flying the Indian flag and shouting pro- “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative is surely Modi slogans. Baloch leaders have warned Islamabad going to be threat India’s interests in the region. of serious repercussions if they declare Gilgit- Baltistan as their fifth province. (d) Late Move by Russia Nowadays, Russia, well-known for India’s best friend, (b) USA-India Strategic Partners is trying to play a strategic game allying with Now, United States declare its commitments to assist Pakistan. The Indian thinkers are in great difficulty India in emerging as a new major power. The current to understand Russia’s this sudden and suspicious India-US rapprochement has been termed as move. Russia is simultaneously appreciating India for ‘irreversible’ and is known as “Strategic Partnership”. its stance on terrorism, while conducting a joint-military India has now adapted to new global realities and exercise with Pakistan. Definitely, Russia has started changed its policies, alliances and roles in international a late but very powerful game, looking at the growing politics. India-US relations were further strengthened US-India strategic partnership. As the US-India by a meeting between Indian PM, Atal Bihari embrace tightens, Pakistan and Russia are bolstering Vajpayee and US President Georg Bush in November ties with one another. This cooperation goes beyond 2001. The India-US Strategic Partnership advanced military sales. Very soon the two countries will also more in 2006-08 and the United States declared India boost economic and energy cooperation. Now it is as a key player in enhancing US role as a major power. clear, not all is going to be well between India and The surprise move by Barack Obama supporting Russia. Possibly, Russia may have also colluded with India’s bid for a permanent seat in UNSC has further China to obstruct India’s path to permanent strengthened the partnership. Other initiatives include membership in the UNSC. Scholars now predict of a Next Step in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) of 2004, possible China-Pakistan-Russia strategic Defence Framework Agreement of 2005 and the alliance. Now India is compelled to accept Russia 2008 Civil Nuclear Cooperation. President Donald has changed strategy in its neighbourhood. In a rare Trump’s phone call on 25th January 2017 to PM, Modi situation, there would be two opposing strategic simply confirmed the perception that the India-US partnerships in making — Russia-Pakistan-China and relationship has reached a higher stage. USA-India. (c) Russia-India Always Friends Positive Factors for India India has fought a lot of wars in just 70 years of its (a) Anti-Pakistan Protest in PoK, Gilgit and independence, mostly with Pakistan. In all the wars, Balochistan Pakistan was helped by the USA, China, Saudi Arabia The last couple of years, strong anti-Pakistan and other Muslim countries. Except Russia, no nationalist protests have been growing in PoK, Gilgit- country has ever come forward to help India. At the Baltistan and Balochistan. They have been opposing time of the Cold War, the Soviet Block included

Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns 85 Eastern European countries and to a high degree mobilization of troops on both sides of the border. In India. India, officially remained neutral. Russia finds late December 2001, both countries moved ballistic in India an ally with a population of 1.2 billion people, missiles closer to their border and mortar and artillery which gives it a strong standing in front of Western fire was reported in Kashmir. By January 2002, India Countries and a huge export market. India also has had mobilized around 500,000 troops and three benefited from Russia’s sharing of weapons, armoured divisions on the Pakistan’s border, which technology training of intelligence personnel and was equally responded by Pakistan with 300,000 support in covert operations. During the recent troops. The standoff caused several casualties with sanctions against Russia by the West, India has again 789 to 1,874 Indian soldiers died. There is always a come to aid the country in need. It was Russia, which fear of nuclear war between the two. According in the aftermath of 1998 nuclear tests, stood by to Global Firepower Index, Pakistan ranks as the 13th India. These remarks have been followed by a high most powerful military in the world while India at amount of technology transfer from Russia to India. fourth. India has 1.3 million active military personnel, Modi also reiterated strong support for India’s NSG while Pakistan has only 620,000. But Islamabad has membership and for Delhi’s entry as a life member ties with China. in SCO summit in 2017. Diplomatic Isolation of Pakistan (d) Growing India-China Rapprochement When most of the powerful countries were shy to Though India and China are rivals since 1962 and support India’s action against Pakistan, the neighbours New Delhi was badly defeated by Beijing, still the came forward in solidarity. This was again seen at last couple of years, both have tried their best to come the time of the recent Islamabad SAARC Summit, closer. Both have shown to forget their past enmity which was cancelled due to India’s diplomacy. Every and become good neighbours. China and India have member states followed India and pulled out of the seriously increased their bilateral relations through summit opposing Pakistan supporting of cross-border economic and security cooperations. Recently (June terrorism. The PM announced that India has 2017) PM, Modi in the occasion of India’s becoming completely isolated Pakistan in the neighbourhood. the life member of the SCO had appreciated China Every nation of South Asia has condemned the for its support. He said in spite of a long-time border barbaric attacks on the Indian army by Pakistani dispute between two countries, China and India never terrorists. Furthermore, the Bollywood banned fire at each other. The current India-China bilateral Pakistani actors; BCCI stopped playing bilateral trade is more than $65 billion. China has categorically cricket series and requested ICC not to group Indian- said its CPEC project has nothing to do with the Pakistan cricket teams together. Badminton Kashmir Dispute. China had invited India to join Association of India decided to boycott the Pakistan OBOR initiative. Today, both the countries realizes International Series. India had also summoned to grow bilateral relations and friendship rather than Pakistan high commissioner Abdul Basit and handed a rival with each other. Though there is some rivalry over evidence of Uri attack. going on between the two countries relating to South Asia and also the South China Sea. Relating to New Approaches Required Kashmir, Beijing has already said it has no intention There are brainstorms going on to find out some new to mediate, leaves Pakistan completely shocked and approaches to solving the Kashmir problem. In 1998, lonely. the government changed its strategy from strictly military operations to humanitarian like Operations. India-Pakistan Military Standoffs But Rajesh Rajagopalan observes that New Delhi Since the independence, India and Pakistan have had must reevaluate its counterinsurgency strategy in military standoffs many occasions. The most recent Kashmir. The approach demands a combination of are at the time of the Kargil conflict in 1999, the military and political measures. The political approach Parliament attack in 2001, the J&K Legislative means creating an atmosphere so that the common Assembly attack in 2002 and the Uri attack in 2016. people of Kashmir can fully participate in the These military standoffs resulted in the mass developmental and decision-making process in the

86 World Focus July 2017 state. Democracy must be the guiding principle and terrorist networks existing in Pakistan and supported people must respect the Indian Union. This perceived by its Army. In the pursuance of the major power alienation between people and the state provides fertile status, India should habituate to become self-reliant ground for terrorists. The state government should and self-confident. No countries actually want to mess regularly engage with local people, make larger around the issue of terrorism, unless and until it hits investments in education, provide jobs, and increase them. Even America talks on terrorism only from its employment. New Delhi should heavily invest in the own perspective. The surgical strike has the greatest power sector, fruit processing and timber industries. ever impact on the Pakistani establishment, both New Delhi must fight the terrorist groups with the government and army. India needs to conduct such strongest force. On 15th August 2016, PM, Modi strikes on a regular basis and keep convincing the rightly highlighted Pakistan’s barbaric acts in PoK, international community simultaneously. India’s Gilgit and Balochistan. Also, the issues of Article- strategy of isolating Pakistan has worked successfully. 370 and the AFSPA should be revised thoroughly. India needs to keep exposing Pakistan regionally and Stating PoK as an integral part of India, Modi said to globally. The message on PoK underscores that the include the people of PoK in the future peace-talks. Modi government will not compromise with the national security. The Indian army needs a mixed Conclusion humanitarian and military action approach to stop India’s military action against terrorists in PoK in the terrorism and establish peace J&K. The ongoing aftermath of the Uri Terror attack has been violence has already destroyed property and livelihood “commended” and supported by the international worth millions in the valley. It is also becoming difficult community. A top European Parliament official has to stop the Kashmir youths from becoming radicals. said on October 2016, New Delhi deserves global The religious fundamentalists are becoming stronger support in its fight against terror. The surgical strike every day. The only way to make everything all right was probably a first military retaliation by India. is to destroy the terror infrastructure and network The United States has for the first time publicly existing in the PoK region with wasting no time. warned Pakistan that it will not hesitate to destroy

‘Entire Kashmir, including PoK, is part of India, says Mohan Bhagwat on RSS foundation day ABP News Bureau | Last Updated: 11 Oct 2016 10:06 AM New Delhi: Entire Kashmir, including PoK, is part of India and enemies of the country will face the heat said Mohan Bhagwat on Tuesday while addressing a rally on the occasion of Vijayadashami and the ‘Sthapana Diwas’ (foundation day) of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

“Entire Kashmir, including PoK, is part of India,” Bhagwat said in Nashik and added, “Enemies of the country will face the heat.” “This time Vijayadashami is special. Country is progressing gradually,” he said while indirectly praising PM Narendra Modi led BJP government. Meanwhile, Modi on Tuesday also complimented the works of the Rashtriya Swayamsewaka Sangh (RSS) on its 91st foundation day. “On the ‘Sthapana Diwas’ of the RSS, my greetings to all swayamsevaks and best wishes in their endeavours to serve our nation,” Modi tweeted. Mohan Bhagwat also raised the issue of Kashmiri Pandits and said they ”must be given justice”. He also stressed that, “There must not be atrocities in the name of caste, religion”. In early morning, RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat took part in the route march by RSS cadres on the occasion of Vijayadashami. However, this time, the traditional Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Vijayadashami rally had some changes. The new RSS uniform, white shirt and dark brown full-pants, debuted at the event. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis also took part in the function. In September 1925, the RSS was launched by Keshav Baliram Hedgewar and its foundation day is celebrated annually on Dussehra day.

(Courtesy: http://www.abplive.in/india-news/entire-kashmir-including-pok-is-part-of-india-says-mohan-bhagwat-on-rss-foundation-day-429584)

Terror Infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: India’s Security Concerns 87 Pak-Occupied Kashmir and India: Can China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) resolve this problem? Dr. Pitam Ghosh

A brief historical background of PoK: legitimate, and regarded the UN resolutions (related Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) consists of the so to troops pull out and holding of plebiscite) irrelevant called ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK)’ and ‘Gilgit- and inoperative in view of the prolonged Pakistani Baltistan’ (referred to as the ‘Northern Areas’ till non-compliance of the UN resolutions. In sum, one August 2009). PoK is part of the state of Jammu and part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir continues to Kashmir (J&K), and hence an integral part of India. be under illegal occupation of Pakistan while the other It has been under the illegitimate control of Pakistan part remains with India after accession. India has since October 22, 1947 when tribal lashkars supported continued to maintain that PoK is a legitimate part of by Pakistan invaded the princely state of J&K and the Indian Union. soon afterwards the ruler of the state acceded to India. India succeeded in repulsing the invaders from Present Scenario: the valley; but, when the Indian army sought to clear The euphoric sense of vindication, especially as the state of these lashkars, it was confronted with India had managed to secure primacy for terrorism regulars from the Pakistan army. The matter was over Kashmir in the Ufa statement, i.e., no talks referred by India to the United Nations in the hope without action on terror by Pakistan, stands of a fair and legitimate solution, which would put an somewhat diluted. India-Pakistan ties witnessed end to external aggression and armed confrontation significant momentum at the cusp of 2015-16. The between the two states. In the subsequent period, intense political elation generated by Prime Minister Indian hopes of fair play were shattered when some Modi’s visit to Lahore got quickly dissipated by the of the major powers in the UN Security Council Pathankot attack. Despite the visit of the Pakistan sought to equate an aggressor state (Pakistan) with JIT (Joint Investigation Team), India has raised the the victim of aggression (India). The UN proposals ante against Jaish-e-Mohammed and its chief, of April 21, 1948 and August 13, 1948 were diluted Masood Azhar. The subsequent arrest of an alleged considerably by March 14, 1949, clearly disregarding Indian RAW agent by Pakistan, which has accused the Indian viewpoint. From this time onward, India him of brewing trouble in restive Balochistan, is took exception to the approach taken by the Security perceived as an attempt to neutralize India’s Council on the Kashmir issue. It felt that it could growing demand for tangible action against terror. never expect justice from the UN body in the Coinciding with that, Pakistan raising the Kashmir prevailing climate of Cold War rivalry. India went bogey once again has pushed negotiations back to ahead with its policy of ascertaining the will of the square one. Pakistan’s Kashmir gambit is neither people of Jammu and Kashmir through democratic new nor surprising. Un-substantive as it is, it means. In September 1951, the people of Jammu and nevertheless adds some energy to the mostly Kashmir elected a Constituent Assembly bound-to-fizzle media frenzy in both countries, (interestingly, all the members were elected resulting in exchange of statements and counters unopposed) which went on to ratify accession of the from both sides. Pakistan’s core strategy each time state to India on February 15, 1954. Finally, the it brings up the Kashmir issue has been to put India assembly drafted a constitution for the state which on the defensive. Perceptibly, India has been was adopted on November 17, 1956 and came into portrayed as looking edgy each time the Kashmir force subsequently on January 26, 1957. Contrary to card is played by Pakistan. But the fact remains the adverse position taken by the UN Security Council that the basic contention between the two countries on this process, vide its resolutions of January 24, lies in the order of priority in which negotiations 1957 , India held it as free, fair, democratic and are carried out — India wants terrorism to be 88 World Focus July 2017 discussed in a substantive manner ahead of other near future. Two Asian economies have joined hands issues, while Pakistan unfailingly raises Kashmir to form an Economic Corridor which is known as as the core issue. In this context, certain concrete China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to and viable options need to be explored and tested achieve their shared objective of mutual growth. China by India to blunt Pakistan’s propaganda, vital has decided to undertake a large scale foreign among which could be raising the issue of Pakistan- investment undertaking which will ensure that China occupied Kashmir (PoK) in an assertive manner.. stays at the forefront of globalization, international By doing so, India will be adhering to its official trade and economic growth. The Chinese President stance on PoK governed by the Parliamentary pledged an additional $113 billion to the entire resolution of 1994. Whether India likes it not, OBOR(One Belt One Road) initiative. The proposed Pakistan will never forgo an opportunity to rake corridor impacts relations between India and Pakistan, up the Kashmir issue, bilaterally or otherwise. as it passes through the Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu Hence, parallel to supporting the dialogue and and Kashmir. No doubt that there are conflicts peace process, it is imperative that that India thinks between India and Pakistan, but when the people of in terms of formulating an alternate strategy— a both sides will be engaged in economic activities and plan B. progress, this could completely minimize the conflict and stakeholders some time may think over the peace Cartography might lie, but topography and of both the regions. This would be rather a step cultural geography does not. Kashmir is not India. towards the commercialization of LOC Trade.(1) Kashmir is not Pakistan. Kashmir is not China. Kashmir is the boundary zone of India-China- Significance and Implications of CPEC: Pakistan. But it is distinctively Kashmir. And its people India needs to grasp the motivation, significance and – whatever their religion or national identity – are implications of this new China-Pakistan nexus. First, Kashmiris. In the guise of crude nationalist narratives CPEC implies a further deepening of the Sino-Pak peddled by the surrounding post-colonial states for alignment which began to intensify after the Osama internal politicking and international leverage, their Bin Laden episode. Moving from “all-weather history is being stolen from the Kashmiri people. friendship” to “iron brother” status, China began to Wherever in Kashmir they are, their options boil down liken its ties with Pakistan to the US links with Israel. to bullets or ballots – bullets if they protest being co- Xi Jinping considers Pakistan as a frontline state in opted into the big country which is not their homeland, the war against terror and is of the view that “its and ballots if they agree to being co-opted into the sacrifices can’t be forgotten” by China. China expects big country which is not their homeland. How can a the CPEC to yield far-reaching economic benefits, Kashmiri live under this perpetual erasure of his or and regional security is instrumental for this purpose. her identity? The same way that every colonised people has survived through the ages: by interpretation Secondly, and related to this, is the strategic intent of and by insurrection. Interpretations enable a re- besieging India. The alignment of Karakoram (land) understanding of the identity choices available to a with Gwadar (sea), both having commercial and person, and insurrections allow a collectivity to military utility, could serve as strategic chokepoints challenge unjust dominance by force. vis-à-vis India. As Andrew Small notes in his book The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: “Pakistan is both a Chinese pawn (against India) and An economic corridor is the ‘Big-bang Shock- platform for power projection…..a long history of therapy’ which involves the availability of economic secret deals between their two armies – overrides resources for creating the new economic opportunities the problems with Islamic extremism.” for the people of the connected and surrounding countries rather links them into one transnational Thirdly, China is mindful of Pakistan’s vulnerabilities entity and their mutual relevance increases. A strong and the latter’s links with terror that could result in economic and human interaction among the countries unpredicted consequences. The possibility of the Af- is going to be a major strength for any country in the Pak belt becoming a safe haven for Uighur militants

Pak-Occupied Kashmir and India: Can China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) resolve this problem? 89 once the US troops leave is very much on Chinese pipeline to fulfill the energy needs of India. So India minds. Beijing’s eagerness for Afghan reconciliation should live with the game otherwise India’s role would talks explains that. Yet, Beijing will shield Pakistan be vanished in future decisions of any economic while trading on terrorism with terrorists (jihadists, activity. After knowing about the Strategic Implications the Taliban and al-Qaeda), all of whom receive arms of CPEC on India, we can now comfortably move in exchange for refraining from exporting terror into towards the ‘Dilemma’. Actually, many Indian Xinjiang. Analysts view CPEC as a curse. A majority of Indian thinkers want New Delhi to escalate ‘some firework’ Fourthly, some analysts view the CPEC in the context over the region, in order to disrupt the CPEC Plan... of offsetting the growing US-India intimacy as well Indian Government has not taken any official stance as China’s quid pro quo to counter India’s “Act or has not published any comprehensive doctrine East” policy. Although such a comparison is nothing against CPEC. India is immediately concerned with but hyperbole, Pakistan does have utility to China for the ‘Via POK’ status of CPEC. Indian Prime Minister, keeping India always edgy. This is a China’s nuanced Shri. Narendra Modi has officially raised concern strategy to deter any possible India-US direct prying about this thing. But as the POK is a historic and in Tibetan and Uighur issues. In reality, China would lengthy, pending dispute; China will not be bothered prefer not to bail out Pakistan in moments of its peril. that much due to such objection from Indian side. Apart from this ‘Via POK’ thing, New Delhi does Fifthly, Although, the ‘Kashmir Valley’ is a landlocked not have any declared plan vis-a-vis the overall CPEC region has no access to the rest of the world except development. the one link route (which connects Srinagar to Jammu), but will have an absolute and comparative So, the prevalent question is how should India advantage if India participates in this corridor (CPEC). react to CPEC? Positive or Negative are the Kashmir, in recent past was connected to ‘Old Silk alternatives. India will face it hard to ‘Morally Justify’ Route’ through () and Ladakh. In to put obstacles in CPEC. Because the POK issue is doing so, CPEC can provide an opportunity to improve minor and China will not be bothered any more due its (Kashmir) interaction with Central Asia, West Asia, to the ‘PENDING’ label of the age-old Kashmir the Middle East and Europe and are expected to gain problem. So, how India can morally oppose the CPEC from this connectivity through highways, railways, in whole ? So, if India decides to oppose it, it will be sea-lanes, energy pipelines and electricity through Proxy War and secret tactics. transmission lines through economic activities, increased trade linkages, enhanced technical There is a possibility of Chinese Colonisation cooperation, generate new financial opportunities, and of Pakistan. Even Pakistani Analysts predict this amplify socio-cultural connectivity among people outcome. Pakistan is actually a fragile state. With no which can equally contribute to the socio-economic co-operation between the Civilian Executive and indicators of the valley this way Kashmir economy Military Warlords, Pakistan can be an easy ‘Prey’ will get connected with the rest of the world and at for a ‘Predator’ like China in long term. So, this will the same time could get big market for its various be ‘Game Changer’ for India too. Because, it is commodities and would become a large transit zone. reasonable to feel safer with China having grip over The execution of this inclusive project would bring Pakistan rather than some irresponsible Jihadi cult economic revolution that can transform the fate of having the access to nukes... China is a rival of India, the valley. but an economic partner too of trade and business. Actually, the threat from China to India is largely Sixthly, If both countries harmonize with the idea, economic and hardly in terms of a military attack. then CPEC can be extended to India through Because both of countries are the rising superpowers supplementary links from Punjab and Kashmir thus, of world, they will hardly prefer any military turning the mutual security threat suspicion to confrontation on large scale. But present Pakistan is benefits. Moreover, CPEC has the capacity to not like that . India has a ‘Real Permanent Threat’ of materialize a faster culmination of Iran-Pak-India gas Military Violence from irresponsible leadership

90 World Focus July 2017 Pakistan. So, CPEC and consequent Chinese interwoven strategy that had been earlier tested in domination of Pakistan can be viewed as a positive the Xinjiang-Central Asia frontier to fix problems at factor’ for India from this point of view. CPEC is home and abroad. Therefore, CPEC is a perfect emerging as a potential pivot in the geo-strategic counter-offensive defence strategy for dealing with calculus between India-Pakistan and China, and it threats emanating from the Af-Pak region. has, for a while, been rearranging conventional parameters of the trilateral equations. From blatant The focus intensified on CPEC and when indifference towards India’s territorial concerns, to Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti advocated why cajoling New Delhi to participate in CPEC and now Kashmir can’t be part of it and benefit from it, it has possibly progressing towards a rather accommodative stayed in both the political and popular discourse. mode — the triangular dynamics between the three Jammu and Kashmir could become a corridor of countries are unfolding at a fast pace. economic activity in the region and the country could take huge benefit of the economic activities going on Seventhly, Connecting Kashgar region of China with across the Line of Control. “Let us move beyond Gwadar port of Pakistan, China Pakistan Economic skirmishes,” she said at a seminar in Delhi. Not only Corridor(CPEC) is an extension of China’s OBOR did she invoke CPEC as key to economic prosperity initiative. China via CPEC wants easier access to but a seminar organised by Kashmir Institute in Middle East; and Pakistan in turn apart from the trade Srinagar in the recent past evoked serious interest in benefits, is excited at the huge Chinese investment in the subject where experts discussed how CPEC Pakistan that the development of CPEC will follow. would bear upon Kashmir as a political issue and its Although mostly driven by economic motive, CPEC resolution. is of strategic concern to India as it passes through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan or PoK region. Also The collective expectation from CPEC for a CPEC could pose security threats to India and worsen prosperous Asia is sure to internationalize the core the Indo-Pak relations as Chinese investment could issue of Kashmir and hence force India to resolve it. possibly strengthen Pakistani militants. However in Policy makers in India need to understand this fact long term, it is also possible that an economically and act accordingly. Merely, closing eyes like a pigeon developed Pakistan (expected resultant of CPEC) will not solve the problems but rather will aggravate would find the opportunity cost of pursuing anti-India the situation. Top leadership in Pakistan and China policy high and thereby would prioritise economic has been offering India to become part of CPEC. cooperation with India over state sponsored cross But India must first step forward and resolve the border terrorism. If this scenario materialises then Kashmir issue. China’s policy until recently has been India would also benefit from the CPEC physical of restraint and non-interference in the internal affairs infrastructure to get cheaper connectivity with of other countries while focusing on its economic Central and West Asia. Hence although CPEC has growth. Now having achieved its target and already been insensitive to India’s sovereign concern posing the second largest economy in the world and projected security threats, in long term Indian soft power could to become the largest by 2030 or maybe well before dictate businessmen in an economically developed then, China has started to roll out its plan for “new Pakistan to compel its government to rectify its world order”. China’s recent mediation between relationship with India. Therefore we need to worry Myanmar and Bangladesh over Rohingya issue about the short term implications of CPEC and hence shows her willingness to play her role in resolving convene international consensus to pressurise China conflicts beyond its borders. This is a sure sign that to ensure that the investments are not misused by China will be ready to mediate between Pakistan and Pakistani militants and sovereignty of India is India for resolving long outstanding Kashmir issue respected. But in long term it could possibly be a peacefully. Moreover Pakistan hobnobbing with win-win situation for India. Russia to join CPEC alongside their recent proactive military diplomacy also indicates new political Finally, against this backdrop, Beijing is keen to convergences in transformational shifts in regional employ its prêt-à-porter domestic-external political flux. (2)

Pak-Occupied Kashmir and India: Can China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) resolve this problem? 91 Snubbing Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism in Tibet, Xinjiang and across Central Asia. Beijing and calling upon Pakistan to vacate the portion of would be seeking a historic opportunity to fill up gaps Kashmir that remains under its illegal occupation is where India has largely failed. Considering PoK’s not new to the Indian policy approach. What is new strategic location as a connecting point of South, West, is the assertion by the Narendra Modi Government Central and East Asia, China’s move has implications on the need to reverse the game by shifting the for limiting India’s outreach to the critical Eurasian discourse on Kashmir. New Delhi’s new move is region. accompanied by the sudden sprouting of videos For Islamabad, Gilgit-Baltistan’s assimilation showing Pakistani atrocities in Gilgit and Baltistan would mean quelling popular sentiment while also (GB).While Pakistan has effectively sustained its deflating India’s objections to Chinese activities. But Kashmir agenda for seven decades, India has been this has not gone well with the Kashmiri separatists defensive and sporadic in its claim over Pakistan- including the Hurriyat who are against GB’s occupied Kashmir (PoK). Hopefully, the rhetoric this incorporation into the Pakistani constitution. time is not a propaganda stunt and the policy shift will gain traction. As a step to wreck Pakistan’s Meanwhile, Chinese activities in Gilgit- agenda, India has correctly proscribed the Hurriyat Baltistan are in full swing including the building of factor from the NSA-level talk – denying Pakistan hydropower projects at Neelam-Jhelum, Kohala and any leeway on both terror and political dialogue. Chakothi-Hattian that will generate 2,569 MW of power by 2020. The China Road and Bridge While changing the Kashmir narrative is Corporation (CRBC) recently completed five tunnels important, India needs to pay serious attention to the over the Attabad Lake in Hunza Valley. Widening of changing nature of power play that has brought PoK the Jaglot-Skardu Road is in progress. At the other to the forefront of China’s geopolitical calculations. end, China has taken 923 hectares on lease in Gwadar The region came under spotlight after Xi Jinping for developing a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). announced plans for developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and pledged USD 46 None of these developments stirred up an billion for building transport and energy connectivity adequate Indian response. In fact, Beijing justified to link Pakistan with China’s ambitious flagship project the CPEC as a “livelihood project” when concerns ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR). The August 2015 were raised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during “Karamay Declaration” detailed Pakistan’s role in his May 2015 visit to China. China’s global scheme. Lately, even Russia has indicated its interest in joining the bandwagon to prop Clearly, India’s unhurried stance on Pakistan up Pakistan’s strategic significance for Eurasian occupied Kashmir explains its unwillingness for integration. changing the status quo. New Delhi has been making sporadic and pro forma protests on the PoK issue While the Sino-Pak axis in PoK is nothing only for the purpose of countering Pakistan’s raising new, the sheer magnitude of the CPEC plan makes it of the K word at the UN. And while Pakistan used clear that it is not confined to the single limited global forums as the stick to beat India with on objective of boosting Pakistan’s prosperity. On the Kashmir, India remains loath to play the United face of it, CPEC signifies the laying of a crucial bridge Nations Security Council Resolution 47 of August 1948 for China to access the Indian Ocean and conversely that implicitly recognised Indian “sovereignty” over for Pakistan to access Eurasia. While the need to Jammu&Kashmir and urged Pakistan to vacate capitalise on their political and geographical proximities territories under its “illegal occupation”. The nature explain this logic, this is not the entire truth. There is of developments taking place around PoK is too far more to China contemplating heavy investments serious for India to ignore. With CPEC coming into in a country as perilously poised as Pakistan is.(3) effect, Pakistan has gone on a diplomatic spree Concerns for India. India needs to be concerned about offering to shape a “New Central Asia” through China attempting to replicate in Pakistan occupied CPEC, asking the landlocked Shanghai Cooperation Kashmir the well-perfected policy it has applied earlier Organisation (SCO) members to use Pakistani ports.

92 World Focus July 2017 Pakistan is gaining greater credence in Eurasia as a investment and only China seems to have the surplus possible partner. Kazakhstan has already expressed capital. Without partnering with China, India’s its desire to join the corridor. Renewed efforts are integration in Asian regionalisation would be less than being made to reboot the Quadrilateral Traffic in smooth. Chinese companies are building infrastructure Transit Agreement (QTTA) with Central Asian in India and there is little difference whether one gains states. Pakistan joined the Central Asia Regional by helping or limiting China’s influence. It cannot be Economic Cooperation (CAREC) in 2010 and it in India’s interest to support the project and not reap separately seeks Transit Trade Agreement (TTA) all the economic benefits of those projects. It is with Afghanistan for access to Central Asia. To important to establish a fine balance between further boost intra-regional connectivity, Pakistan has economics with security. recently acceded to the TIR Convention. Involving Iran in the corridor is another ambition. With the India also cannot ignore the significance of current financial down turn in China, it is hard to the symbolism of history. After all, it was the Silk predict whether CPEC will actually come to fruition. Route on which Indian trade and philosophy However, the trajectory and even a partial success (Buddhism) travelled to the rest of Asia. Modi himself would be consequential for limiting Indian influence showed an inclination towards and confidence in in BRICS and SCO.(4) dealing with China for building an Asian century. At Ufa, Modi displayed pragmatism by seeking Options for India convergence with China and Russia. As China is fast India should stop making intermittent and tentative transforming internally, the imperatives of cultural overtures and instead adopt a robust policy on Pakistan affinity will demand closer propinquity between India Occupied Kashmir. A counter strategy should go and China.(5) beyond building partnerships with the US in the Asia- Pacific. Quite clearly, India’s non-endorsement or Thus, staying outside cannot be to India’s indifference to China’s Silk Road proposal appears advantage. New Delhi needs to re-conceptualise and to be short-sighted thinking, perhaps stemming from seek new realities on the ground. China has called suspicion and insecurity. In any case, India’s options upon India to join the Silk Route and India should are limited. In contrast to the Asia-Pacific, the US is respond positively while accepting a trade-off here not alarmed at Beijing’s push; instead it has been and there. seeking convergence with China perhaps necessitated by the need to share the burden of containing terrorism A wise approach would be to join the regional in Afghanistan. In fact, Washington’s own New Silk networking process just as India joined the Asian Route initiative has fallen short perhaps due to shifting Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). There is priorities and its inability to commit adequate funds. nothing wrong in exploring OBOR as an alternative Geopolitically, China too is not risking a zero-sum as long as India’s security interests are not game with the US in Eurasia. To be also sure, China compromised. Remaining disconnected would only also knows that the current priority of the West is to instill greater insecurity and fears of Chinese break Russia’s ambitions in Eurasia rather than to encirclement. What Modi requires is a policy that counter China’s move. would help to overcome predicaments that have thus far stymied India’s role in Asia. Also, India can do little to stop OBOR or scuttle the CPEC. Almost all the countries in the A Counter Strategy subcontinent are excited about the project. India’s India needs to work on its own counter strategy by non-participation would lead to isolation and loss of offering a plan for a direct India-China Silk Route clout at the regional level.Being the world’s second Corridor (ICSRC) that could run along the traditional largest economy and India’s largest trading partner, Ladakh-Xinjiang axis. A shift in thinking can no longer New Delhi is unable to ignore China anyway. To be be put off, for it would mean not just about breaking sure, OBOR may be carrying security undertones the connectivity bottlenecks but about finding but India also requires massive infrastructure

Pak-Occupied Kashmir and India: Can China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) resolve this problem? 93 interlocking economic interests between its northern Conclusion states and the Eurasian growth story. The strategic significance of PoK for India lies in the fact that it has long been a territory of armed conflict The ICSRC could provide an alternate transport, between India and Pakistan whether it is with regards energy, trade, fibre optics and communication to the LC situation, terrorist infiltration into India from highway that could originate from a port in Gujarat Pakistan, the 1965 war ( and run across northern India to connect with Kashgar in ) or as the militarized part of western China through the Indus Valley in Ladakh. Jammu and Kashmir. The piece of territory has seen The initiative would have multiple advantages for both a temporary rise in stock with talk of CPEC but forms India and China without compromising on their a small part of the mega project. Ever since the respective security concerns. These include: granting of constitutional status to G-B, the region a. The corridor could bring massive Chinese has sparked an important debate in its utility to China investments for building infrastructure in India that and whether it dilutes the broader Kashmir agenda would boost the economy and generate greater of Pakistan. Previous Indian governments on their employment opportunities. part had speculated on the need to match Chinese b. India could earn billions as fee from pipeline transit. investments in PoK with Investments in Jammu and An energy corridor would help India gain a durable Kashmir. But China has not gone into ‘a more guarantee against any Chinese misadventure across meaningful dialogue’ with India on possible ways of the border. mutual benefit from OBOR without compromising c. There could be a trade-off here in terms of India on the disputed nature of PoK. The substantive possibly getting long-distance transport and energy meaning of the phrase from the point of view of India pipelines from Russia through western China. meant that any Chinese investment in the region of d. ICSRC would blunt the impact of the CPEC. Kashmir would require rigorous political discussion e. For China, ICSRC would be more reliable and less on the naming, nature, mechanism, implementation, hazardous than risking investments in terrorism- joint management and mutual benefit between India plagued Pakistan. and China. China chose to circumvent this important f. ICSRC would open a historic opportunity for India part of the process by getting into an agreement with to physically connect with markets in China, Eurasia, Pakistan about CPEC in PoK. Thus, India was left Europe, and beyond. And, India could offer several with little choice but to invoke territorial disputes and other alternate outlets for China through the Northeast unsustainable debt in order to opt out of OBOR. or Sikkim that are nearer to Chinese growth centres. Notes And References If the idea were to be pushed forward, it (1) Sumit Walia:”CPEC, its economic viability and options could become a grand announcement indicating for India”, Indian Defence Review,October11,2016, p44. India’s willingness to deepen economic engagement with China and would be something akin to how Russia (2) Nirupama Rao:” The Neighbour’s Concern”, The and China started two decades ago. ICSRC could Kashmir Monitor, August 31,2016. help revive the shared legacy of a common history (3) The Nation, October6, 2015. and culture enriched by the trade in silk and spices. The development could pave the way for (4) , May 18, 2017. strengthening trust between the two countries and (5) Prateek kapil: “The Case of PoK-CPEC: What is a eventually contribute to the solution of the boundary meaningful dialogue?” CLAWS, No.1746, Vol-476, problem.ICSRC could prove to be a masterstroke of a counter-strategy in India’s long-term domestic and October06,2015, pp.77,78 foreign policies. It would be a coup de maître for (6)P.Stobdan:” The Need for Haste on Pakistan-occupied India in dealing with multiple challenges of countering Kashmir: China Pakistan Economic Corridor Needs a an expansive Chinese foreign policy, aggressive Pakistani designs, the growing threat of extremism, Counter Strategy”, IDSA, October 07, 2015. and addressing the connectivity issues.(6)

94 World Focus July 2017 The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity Pankaj Lakhera

The Kashmir issue has been a bone of contention It is upto the policy makers to decide the policies about between two major powers of South Asia that is various issues including that of Pakistan occupied India and Pakistan. On one hand, India claims Kashmir. But, being the student of international the entire territory of Kashmir and wishes to take relations, we may examine the existing policies and back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir from Pakistan. acts of governments and explore all types of future On the other hand, Pakistan wants separation of possibilities. Kashmir from India. Apart from three major wars over the Kashmir issue between the two countries, Genesis of the problem there has always been tension between the two The root cause of Kashmir problem lies in its history. neighbors which is reflected in the form of spread At the time of independence, 562 princely states which of terrorism, proxy war and day to day violation were not in direct control of the British were given of cease fire on the borders. The present paper options of either join India or Pakistan remain wishes to analyze the whole issue objectively. How independent. One of these princely states was the far India is justified in claiming Pakistan occupied state of Kashmir, ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh. The Kashmir? Is it really possible to take back the problem with the maharaja of Kashmir was that he same from Pakistan’s occupation? What are the was a Hindu ruler of a Muslim state. He might have ways to establish peace and prosperity in South chosen to join India but decided to remain independent Asian region? due to the instance of his prime minister, sheikh Abdullah. After the annexation of Junagarh, Sardar Kashmir issue has been the most Patel wanted to annex Kashmir also but it could not controversial issue between two major countries of be materialized as Kashmir was invaded by 12000 South Asia that is India and Pakistan. It appears from Pathan tribesmen. They entered the Kashmir state present scenario that this problem is unsolvable in on 22 October 1947 and started plundering and killing future. Neither India nor Pakistan is ready to give up the people. The invasion was carried out on plea of their claim in this region. Presently, the entire territory jihad against the oppressors of Muslims in Kashmir. of Kashmir is divided into three parts. Almost two As the invaders were about to reach Sri Nagar and third part of Kashmir is with India, about one third hari singh was not able to resist them, he wrote a part is in Pakistan and a small portion of it has been letter to lord mount baton for Indian military gifted to China by Pakistan government. intervention. At this juncture, hari singh was given two choices by India, either join the union of India or Here, we are more concerned about fight with the invaders on his own. Hari singh signed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). The area of the treaty of accession to union of India without any POK is about 13297 kms. Its capital is at ifs and buts. From then onwards, Kashmir legally Muzaffarabad. The POK is called Azad Kashmir by became an integral part of India. India send her troops Pakistan authorities. It is referred to as Pakistan in the valley and freed sri nagar and punch but by administered Kashmir by the UN and other that time Pakistan government , had already international organizations. India calls it Pakistan established a public government, called azad Kashmir, occupied Kashmir (POK). It shares its borders with in the area beyond Muzaffarabad which was totally china and Afghanistan in the north, Pakistan in the controlled by the Pakistan government. They also west and India in the east. It was never ruled by the supported the rebels in this region. Nehru as an idealist British but always by a hereditary monarch. In 1963, went to the United Nations Organization (UNO). The Pakistan gifted the northern most part of POK to UN order ceases fire in the region. Consequently, china. 1 Nehru ordered his troops to stop proceeding The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity 95 immediately. Indian troops thus could not conquer the passes through the territory of POK on the same entire territory of Kashmir. One third part of the state ground. 5 remained with Pakistan which was named as Pakistan occupied Kashmir. In 1972, the then existing border Legally speaking, whole area of Kashmir between India and Pakistan in Kashmir was including the POK should belong to India. Kashmir designated as the line of control 2 became an integral part of India when Maharaja Hari Singh signed instrument of accession to India although It must be kept in mind that the accession whole territory of Kashmir could not come under day, 26th of October is celebrated as state holiday in India’s control. The instrument called for a j and k. in 1947; it was celebrated by bursting referendum in the state of Kashmir regarding the crackers, singing Indian national anthem and by choice of people whether they want to join India, hoisting Indian flag. So, the people of Kashmir state Pakistan or remain independent after tribesmen would at that time were fully in favor of India. On the other be driven out. Often, India is blamed for not holding hand, the separatists celebrate it as black day. 3 that referendum in Kashmir. But, this charge is baseless as it was Pakistan which had to withdraw Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: the Indian first from Kashmir if the referendum is to take place. perspective So, India cannot be blamed if referendum did not take Recently, it has been reported by several news papers place. It must be noted that the Instrument of that Modi charisma and style of governance has Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh on the 26th encouraged residents of POK to demand that they October, 1947, was in the same form1 as was want to become a part of India. They are very much executed by the Rulers of the numerous other States impressed by India’s positive action during the 2014 which had acceded to India following the enactment floods and 2015 earth quake in Kashmir. Chairman of Indian Independence Act, 1947. 6 of the Anjuman Minhaj-e-Rasool, Moulana Syed Athar Hussain Dehlavi, who recently toured POK, Keeping in mind the spirit of instrument of said that people residing in the region want to be a accession of Kashmir to India, The constitution of part of India. According to Dehlavi, the people of the India ensures enough autonomy of state of Jammu region are distressed with growing extremism in and Kashmir. According to article 1 of Indian Pakistan and want to lead a peaceful life. Given the constitution, entire Kashmir including POK forms a opportunity, they would want a referendum so that part of territory of India. It has been mentioned as they can vote to join back India. They are very much the 15th state of the union of India in first schedule of impressed by modi’s good governance. They are the constitution. In present legislative assembly of openly demanding freedom from Pakistan as reported Jammu and Kashmir, there are 100 seats in total widely by Pakistan media. On 7th of September 2014, out of which 24 are remain vacant as they are meant when Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz sharif visited for the people of POK. The instrument of accession, the flood affected areas in POK, it was boycotted by signed by Maharaja Hari singh, gave jurisdiction to the slogans “go nawaz go”. Conscious of the government of India over the subjects of defense, deteriorating situation in POK, PM Modi made an external affairs and communication of state of offer of all possible help to the people there, when he Kashmir. Although, the state became a part of India, visited flood affected area of the Kashmir Valley last the provisions of the Constitution applicable to other year. 4 States were not extended to Jammu & Kashmir. This peculiar position was due to the fact that having Similarly, external affairs minister sushma regard to circumstances in which the State acceded swaraj also condemned Pakistan when it declared to India; the Government of India had declared that it Gilgit baltitstan as its fifth province because legally was the people of the State of Jammu & Kashmir, the whole area of Kashmir belongs to India. India acting through their Constituent Assembly, who were also criticized the construction of China Pakistan to finally determine the Constitution of State and Economic Corridor (CPEC) corridor by china which jurisdiction of the Union of India. 7

96 World Focus July 2017 With this object in view, the people of State Muslims of India may find themselves closer to Hindus elected a sovereign Constituent Assembly which met of this country in comparison to the Muslims of west for the first time on October 31, 1951. Asia or any other part of the world. Following this argument, we may say that if POK becomes a part The constituent assembly prepared the state of India, there won’t be any problem in terms of their constitution of Kashmir which is there in the Indian assimilation in Indian society. constitution under article 370. In February, 1954, the Constituent Assembly of Jammu & Kashmir ratified We may also find justification of Indian claim the State’s Accession to India. This act of Constituent to POK if we compare POK with Indian Jammu and Assembly was followed up by the promulgation by Kashmir In terms of economic prosperity, individual the President of India of the Constitution (Application freedom and protection of human rights. to Jammu & Kashmir) Order, 1954. The order ensured the applicability of provisions of Constitution It has been reported by Pakistan media that of India governing the relationship between the Union people of POK are now fed up with the atrocities and the State. According to this Order, the jurisdiction committed on them by Pakistan army. For last several of the Union extended to all Union subjects under the decades, they have been neglected by Islamabad. Constitution of India (subject to certain slight Instead of doing development activities, Pakistan alterations) instead of only the three subjects of government is just nurturing terrorist camps there. 9 Defense, Foreign Affairs and Communications with On the other hand, the province of Jammu and respect to which the State had acceded to India in Kashmir is given special status under article 370 of 1947. Thus, government of India tried to fulfill Indian constitution. It is enjoying maximum autonomy maximum conditions as mentioned in the instrument which has not been assigned to any other state of of accession of Kashmir to India. 8 country. Article 370 also protects the demographic profile of Kashmir as the people of other states cannot Another argument supporting India’s point stay there permanently. They cannot get any job in of view about POK may be India’s secular polity, Kashmir. Government of India has spent enormous democracy and composite culture. The Indian amount of money for development of the state. Ever constitution cherishes the values of democracy and since its incorporation in the union of India, all secularism. The preamble of the constitution, calls governments at the centre, irrespective of their party India a democratic, secular, socialist republic. The lines, have given thousands of crores of Rupees in fundamental rights under the third part of constitution the form of special package to the state. In recent mentions the rights of equality, liberty and other years, vast rail and road network has been constructed fundamental rights including the freedom of religion in the state which has incurred huge cost due to the for setting up an equal and secular society. topography of area

Our freedom fighters and makers of As per the Economic survey of India 2014- constitution believed in the ideal of secularism. They 15, The Life Expectancy of males and females at rejected the idea of two nation theory which was national level stands at 63.95 & 67.08 years, propounded by Muslim League. That is why Millions respectively. As far as, the J&K State is concerned, of Muslims are staying in India without any major the life expectancy of males & females stands at problem. We are proud to have Muslim population in 66.5 and 69.3 years, respectively; which is more than India which is much larger than the whole population the national average. of Indonesia or Pakistan. For centuries, the Indian culture has been a composite culture. We are having The education is on the rise in the state. the tendency of assimilation. People of different During the decade 2001-2011, literacy rate increased communities have been living peacefully in India for from 55.50% to 68.74% in the State as against centuries. It is an example, which is rare in the world. 64.84% to 74.04% at the national level. Over the There may be difference in terms of religion or years, J&K has achieved many milestones in higher language, but, our culture is same. That is why; the education. By the year 2013-14, the number of

The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity 97 colleges has increased to 95 including 12 women and wanted to join Pakistan. During operation Polo degree colleges. Two Central Universities, one each in 1948, Indian army captured entire territory of at Jammu and Srinagar, are functional in the State. Hyderabad. The nawab was forced the sign the Five universities, i.e. two State universities, two Govt. standstill agreement so that he could not join Pakistan. aided universities and one Private University with Thus, the Indians diplomatically took over the princely intake capacity of 11,400 students, are also functioning states where there was Hindu majority but which in the State. 10 were being ruled by Muslim rulers and which were surrounded by Indian Territory. 12 Kashmir is one of the prosperous states of India. Tourism is the back bone of state economy. Now, the case of Kashmir was very Kashmir is known internationally for its tourism spots. complicated. It was a state with Muslim majority For the last few years, the government has identified having a Hindu ruler. In Kashmir, the ruler wanted to 20 spots against 5 traditional spots for enlarging the make standstill agreement with India and Pakistan. scope of tourism. 11 Pakistan accepted it but India did not give its assent before ensuring that sheikh Abdullah becomes the There is no doubt that had POK been a part prime minister of state. Nehru believed that of India, it would have enjoyed same facilities which establishment of sheikh would facilitate the merger are being enjoyed by the people of Indian side of of Kashmir into Indian union as Abdullah was close Kashmir. to him during the quit India movement and also launched the same type of stir in the Kashmir valley Practical problems in getting back POK from against the king. He could not understand that the Pakistan king actually wanted to join India after independence The Indians may have sound arguments regarding but needed time and so asking for standstill agreement. the legal ownership of entire Kashmir state but those On the other hand, Pakistan signed the same. Pakistan arguments have not been endorsed by Pakistan and also could not wait for a long time and send 12000 many other countries of the world. There are certain tribesmen in the valley. This incident was followed lacunas in India’s claim over Kashmir. by signing of instrument of accession to India by maharaja hari singh and subsequent entry of Indian Before analyzing the issue of legal ownership army in Kashmir. Indian army was forcing tribesmen of entire Jammu and Kashmir region including the back and conquering the area. At this juncture, Indian POK, we must consider the political situation which Prime Minister Nehru made a strategic mistake. In was prevailing at the time of partition. The British 1948 he prematurely went to the UN for solving the left India by partitioning it into two parts that is India Kashmir issue. The UN immediately ordered the and Pakistan. Apart from this, there were 562 princely cease fire and India could not conquer the entire states which were not in direct control of the British. territory of Kashmir. 13 They were given option to either join India or Pakistan or remain independent. Both India and Pakistan were The cease fire was formally declared on the busy in winning over these states either by hook or night of 1 January 1949. The net result of cease fire by crook. was that two third part of Kashmir remained with India while one third of it went in Pakistan control. For instance, the state of Junagarh was a Had Nehru not gone to the UN and the cease fire Hindu majority state with a Muslim ruler who signed had not been declared, the Kashmir issue would have the instrument of accession to Pakistan. But, India been resolved forever. The issue became more cut off all the supplies to Junagarh from her territory complicated when in 1963, Pakistan gifted northern and compelled nawab to surrender. While Pakistan most part of POK to china. In 1972, the then existing was busy with Kashmir, sardar Patel send troops to border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir was Junagarh and annexed it. So, the instrument of designated as the line of control. accession to Pakistan could not be put into practice. Similarly, Hyderabad was also in the same situation

98 World Focus July 2017 Apart from historical facts which are a the valley has practically no economic value for both hinderence in the resolution of Kashmir issue, there the countries. But, it is a matter of pride. It would be are certain other contemporary problems. The POK a political suicide if any government on either side and Gilgit baltitstan is entirely Muslim populated area would become soft on the issue.16 from where the minority Hindus have already been driven out in 1947. Real problem is not the religion During 1970s both the countries developed but fundamentalist and extremist ideology which has nuclear weapons. So, if Kashmir war takes place to been inculcated among the people there for decades. get back the POK, Pakistan may resort to nuclear So, India may find it difficult to win support of the attack. Hence, the POK cannot be taken from local people (what). On the other hand, Pakistan Pakistan due to the nuclear deterrent. 17 government is giving impression that they are totally What is main reason? just and want to make Kashmir an independent state. They are there for the wellbeing of POK people. The POK is a very high mountainous region The POK is governed by a self governing legislative which is very tough to capture and to control. assembly. The government of POK is based upon Topographic map of POK shows it has high the west minister system with president as the head concentration of world’s highest mountains. Kashmir of state while the prime minister is the head of as a whole has very limited approach from India but government. They also have the Supreme Court and has better approaches from Pakistan. (That’s why a high court. In other words, the Pakistanis pretending we could not take its total control during first war to keep its promise to make Kashmir an independent and thus POK was formed.)The POK has major anti state.14 India and pro Pakistan sentiments, so, even if we capture it, it would be very difficult to retain it. The But, practically speaking, the government in people of that area will be a security risk for rest of POK is totally controlled by Pakistan government. India. 18 (Post) The ministry of azad Kashmir affairs under the Pakistan government is the link between Pakistan Another problem in getting POK back from government and the self governing unicameral Pakistan is the involvement of China. China is major legislative assembly of POK. Neither POK nor Gilgit ally of Pakistan and the biggest arm supplier to it. baltitstan elect the members for Pakistan national Chinese are constructing the China Pakistan assembly. The POK is a self governing state under Economic Corridor (CPEC) which connects the North Pakistan control. According to Pakistan constitution, West part of China with the port of Karachi. The it is not formally a part of the country as the dispute corridor passes through the POK area. The CPEC related to it has not been resolved yet. Pakistan is made by china passes through POK. China has also administering it as a self governing territory as the heavily invested in various projects in Pakistan. So, if UN resolution calls for a referendum. However, the POK is attacked, china would immediately come into Pakistan government has not allowed POK to issue picture and it would be very difficult for India to face their own postage stamps. The residents of POK are two nuclear power simultaneously, 19 not given basic freedoms and the Pakistan government exercises strict control over the people. 15 Apart from this, there are certain international compulsions also. We are bound by UN resolution It is also not wise to win over POK from over Kashmir issue. We cannot afford to violate it Pakistan as it is not economic to do so. Maximum openly. The crossing of line of control in Kashmir arable land of Kashmir falls in India. The POK is region would be considered violation of international scarcely populated area as it is less arable and has law. It might be followed by international sanctions rugged mountains. Even the china controlled territory against India. The war efforts of India may be crippled of shag is and aksai chin are filled with soda lakes. as she imports most of arms and fuel from abroad. So, it is not economic to hold such territory. (What) Pakistan would be diplomatically victorious as it wants 87 percent households are involved in agriculture? to internationalize the Kashmir issue from the very Tourism is another source of making livelihood. (Post) beginning.20

The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity 99 Not only this, this move may also badly affect our the policy of spreading terrorism and proxy war in development efforts. Today, India is one of the that state. Enormous resources have been spent on emerging economies of the world. In terms of the purchase of arms, wars and spreading insurgency. size of economy, it stands third in the world. We need Had these resources been spent for eradicating a lot of direct foreign investment for infra structure poverty and for bringing development, these countries development. We are signing a number of agreements would have joined the group of developed nations. with different countries in the world for energy security, defense procurement and other technological If we consider whole issue of indo Pakistan requirements. All these development efforts would relations in a broader framework of south Asian be sabotaged if we try to capture the POK. Because region, we would find that it is in interest of two most of our resources would be diverted to take over nations to solve all the contentious issues including POK and defend it in future. 21 the issue of Kashmir amicably. In terms of human development index, South Asia ranks at very low Taking over POK means that we would also position. Only 62 percent of young women and 77 be sharing borders with areas in Afghanistan which percent of young men are able to read and write in are full of most dangerous terrorist organizations in South Asia. This is also a region where almost half of the world like Taliban. India already spends 10% of the unemployed people are young adults, in the area its Budget on Jammu-Kashmir that has just 1% of of gender index South Asia is the third lowest Indian population. Adding POK to that means performing regions of the world. If the global hunger spending more amount of money, sending more troops index of South Asia is taken, then it figures as the and using more weapons etc to protect the territory. second worst performing regions of the world. In 2 2 the list of despairs or failures, South Asia also has 399 million poor people of the world (that is 40 percent In the eyes of international community, India of the world’s poor) who are living on less than $1.25 is a responsible state. Although, it is a nuclear power, a day. 24 but has declared no first use of nuclear weapons. We are against all types of imperialism, racism and The question of the hour is How to increase colonialism. We are one of the founding members of regional cooperation. How to bring a shared prosperity. United Nations Organization. We are the leader of We have to fight with poverty, hunger and Non Alignment movement. India, the country which unemployment rather than fighting with each other. provides highest number of volunteers to the United If we support terrorism and violation of human rights, Nations Peace Keeping Force, a country that wants we leave behind all the crucial problems of the region. permanent membership in United Nations Security Council, cannot afford to violate any international law. We should not forget the fact that South Asia Such an aggressive step would spoil the future is one of the fastest growing regions of the world. prospects of India to get key position in international Henry Kissinger, in one of his articles, says that global organizations.23 balance of power is shifting from Pacific to the Indian Ocean. It means that in future, it is south Asia and Making peace and prosperity in the region China which are going to be the centre of power in through mutual cooperation the world. We must not miss this opportunity by One must keep in mind that India and Pakistan. the fighting over meaningless issues. According to a World two poor nations, are the biggest buyers of arms in Bank report the economic growth in South Asia the world. This is due to lack of trust on each other. averages 6 percent a year for over the last 20 years. For the last 70 years, we have been pursuing policy This growth rate is projected to touch 7.6 percent by of enmity towards each other. This is due to narrow 2017 according to the continuing trends, which mindedness on the part of our policy makers and reflects some strong consumption and investments. common man. In present era of weapons of mass Interestingly this economic growth does not get destruction, the open fully fledged war is a remote reflected in the intra-regional trade of South Asia, possibility. The only way to disturb the enemy state is which was around 5.31 percent in 2014. Even though

100 World Focus July 2017 South Asian economies opted for global integration suspicion and mistrust prevails between India and but they never showed similar concerns for their Pakistan regarding the free movement of people and regional economic integration. We have to fully realize goods within the region. Greater amount of travel by this potential of the SAARC region. 25 citizens of both countries would develop a common South Asian identity which is so important for any Future economic growth of South Asian regional integration. An expansion in tourism will countries is largely dependent on regional integration. encourage trade and investment. 26 Their improved regional infrastructure, cooperation in energy sectors, regional common markets, and ‘People to people’ contact can influence product standardization. The conflict over contentious political will and boost political commitment for issues like Kashmir will increase regional imbalance. regional cooperation. Whenever there has been It cannot be solved if viewed from a political angle. ‘people to people’ contact between Indians and We have to find out the ways which are amicable Pakistanis, there have been expressions of solidarity and serve mutual interests. with one another. 27

India has taken some positive steps for There can be cooperation in non conventional increasing regional cooperation in south Asian region. sources of energy and finding alternative to fossil In 2015, a breakthrough in indo Bangladesh relation fuels. Possibilities of energy cooperation are likely to came when both the countries sign the agreement go forward in the future. Already energy deals for the exchange of enclaves which fall in each between India and Bangladesh have been signed in other’s territory. Similarly, there is talk about road energy and also with India and Nepal. India signed a connectivity among India, Nepal, Bhutan and deal to build 960 megawatts Arun III dam in Eastern Bangladesh. Similar achievements can be there in Nepal. Most of the electricity generated will be indo Pakistan relations if both the major power of exported to India. India has agreed to supply 600 MW this region tries to resolve the Kashmir issue through of electric power from the grid at Palatana (Tripura) mutual consent, there is big scope of cooperation in to Bangladesh. The region is one of the most energy the field of trade and commerce. India has given Most deficient regions in the world. In Bangladesh only 47 Favored Nation status to Pakistan which has not been per cent have access to electricity. Alternate sources reciprocated by Pakistan. If there is peace between of energy would give power to the region such as the two major countries of south Asia, it would lead wind, water, and nuclear and further industrialization. to mutual trust which would be in turn allow all other 26 28 things happen in a smooth manner. Connectivity is extremely important for the If there is peace and stability in the region, it region’s prosperity and getting linked with ASEAN, would help in bringing energy security. For the last Central Asia and Europe. The revival of the Silk Route few years, there is discussion about Iran, Pakistan, is an important development which India and its and India gas pipeline. Similarly, one more proposal neighbours cannot miss. Recently, Pakistan’s is “TAPI” gas pipeline, which would be bringing gas reluctance to come on board on the connectivity from Turkmenistan to India through Afghanistan and agreement seems to be in response to India breaking Pakistan. But, due to lack of trust and disturbances away from its promised bilateral talks over Kashmir in Kashmir region, no breakthrough has been achieved after Pakistan refused to stop talking to Kashmiri in this respect. separatists. It has also shown resistance in India’s request for transit for goods and passenger by road The ‘people to people’ contact is essential through Pakistan territory to Afghanistan. Clearly this for building greater trust among the countries of the move is not going to increase connectivity in the region. There are visa restrictions and foreign region. 29 exchange issues that hamper tourism. There are major problems in travelling from one country to All the above said objectives may be realized another through road and rail. An atmosphere of if there is mutual trust between the two big powers

The Contested Notion of PoK and Concerns for Regional Prosperity 101 that is India and Pakistan. On the other hand, if they 21IBID keep on disturbing each other through wrongful 22IBID means, all the possibilities would be lost. 23IBID 24Dhananjay Tripathy, “A region of hope and despair”,. Conclusion 25 IBID There is no doubt that ideally speaking; entire territory 26Jayshree Sengupta, “SAARC and its future”, 27 IBID of Kashmir including POK should come under India’s 28IBID control. But, ideal situation cannot be realized easily. 29IBID We have to bear with the realities of international politics. Mutual cooperation between India and Sources Pakistan and excepting the line of control in Kashmir 1)Basu Durga das, “Introduction to the constitution of as international border is the solution. Both the India”, Vadhwa and company, Law publishers, New Delhi countries should leave possession for each other’s 2001 territory. If they live peacefully, there is great potential 2)Bhushan Bharat, “what is the Real meaning of Pakistan for greater connectivity, trade and commerce, energy Occupied Kashmir”, retrieved from https://www.quora.com security and regional integration and they may prosper on 17th may 2017 at 9:00pm. at a much faster pace. 3)Economic Survey 2014-15, “a general review of Kashmir Life”, retrieved from http://www.kashmirlife.net on 17th May Endnotes 2017 at 9:00 pm. 4)Indian Defense Update, “with OBOR, China becomes 1Farida Rizwan, “17 lesser known factors about POK”, real third party in Kashmir” retrieved from http:// 2Navneet Singh, “What is the story behind Pakistan defenceupdate.in/ on 17th may 2017 at 9:00pm. occupied Kashmir”, 5)Postoast Staff, - “21 lesser known facts about Pakistan 3 Postoast Staff, - “21 lesser known facts about Pakistan occupied Kashmir every Indian should know” retrieved occupied Kashmir every Indian should know” from http://postoast.com/ on 17th may 2017 at 9:00pm. 4Zee News, “Modi affect: Pakistan occupied Kashmir wants 6)Rizwan Farida, “17 lesser known factors about POK”, to be a part of India” retrieved from http://topyaps.com/ on 17th may 2017 at 5The Hitavada, ”Sushma, POK belongs to India” 9:00pm. 6Durga Das Basu, “introduction to the constitution of 7)Saurav, “Why cannot India occupy Pakistan occupied India”, Vadhwa and company, Law publishers, New Delhi Kashmir” retrieved from https://www.quora.com on 17th 2001. may 2017 at 9:00pm. 7IBID 8)Sengupta Jayshree, “SAARC and its future”, retrieved 8IBID from http://www.jayshreesengupta.org/ on 17th may 2017 9Zee News, “Modi affect: Pakistan occupied Kashmir wants at 9:00 pm. to be a part of India 9)Singh Navneet, “What is the story behind Pakistan 10Economic Survey 2014-15, “a general review of Kashmir occupied Kashmir”, retrieved from https://www.quora.com Life”. on 17th may 2017 at 9:00pm. 11IBID 10)The Hitavada, ”POK belongs to India: Sushma” 12Navneet Singh, “What is the story behind Pakistan retrieved from http://thehitavada.com on 17th may 2017 at occupied Kashmir”, 9:00pm. 13IBID 11)Tripathy Dhananjay, “A region of hope and despair”, 14Bharat Bhushan, “what is the Real meaning of Pakistan retrieved from http://southasiamonitor.org/ on 17th may Occupied Kashmir”, 2017 at 9:00 pm. 15Postoast Staff, “21 lesser known facts about Pakistan 12)Vishwanathan Balaji, “What is main reason India does occupied Kashmir every Indian should know” not try to annex the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan” 16IBID retrieved from https://www.quora.com on 17th may 2017 at 17Balaji Vishwanathan, “What is main reason India does 9:00pm. not try to annex the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan” 13)Zee News, “Modi affect: Pakistan occupied Kashmir 18IBID wants to be a part of India” retrieved from http:// 19Indian Defense Update, “with OBOR, China becomes zeenews.india.com on 17th may 2017 at 9:00pm. real third party in Kashmir” 20Saurav, “Why cannot india occupy Pakistan occupied Kashmir” 102 World Focus July 2017 Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Shivani Sharma

Introduction cordial relations between Kashmir and Pakistan as The British decision to quit India brought forth an Pakistan in an effort to coerce the state to accede, essential question on the status of the princely states decided to cut off the supply of essential commodities, and their relationship with India and Pakistan. The and mounted military pressure in the form of hit- and British Cabinet Mission in 1946 however had declared run border raids. that Britain’s paramountcy over the princely states would not be transferred to the successor The all-out invasion of Kashmir started on government(s) but would simply lapse, meaning, rights October 22, 1947, when the few tribal raiders aided that had been surrendered by Indian princes to the and abetted by Pakistani army marched into the paramount power “will return to the states” ( Menon princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. The objective 1955:47)1 .The stand on the status of princely states of the operation was to either throw away Maharaja in the Cabinet Mission memorandum was further Hari Singh; the then ruler of the sovereign state of reiterated and acknowledged in the partition plan of Jammu and Kashmir and annex the state, or force June 3, 1947, which specifically declared that the him to accede to Pakistan. The areas of envisaged partition and transfer of power will not Muzaffarabad, Uri and Baramullah were almost extend to the princely states. Therefore, it left the taken by the fourth day of the invasion. The raiders question on the status and future of princely states had captured the Mathura Power house, a major unclear. supplier house of electricity to Srinagar and announced to capture Srinagar on October 26, 1947. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir The invasion however left the Maharaja alarmed with was India’s largest princely state in 1947 with an area no choice but to seek help from the Indian State. A of 84,471 sq.miles and falls naturally into four regions. team led by V.P. Menon and other army and air force In the South lies Jammu; in the centre is the Kashmir officers was sent to Srinagar to assess the situation. Valley with Srinagar as its capital; to the North is However, Lord Mountbatten was apprehensive to Gilgit and between the Kashmir Valley and Tibet is move the Indian troops into what was at the moment the province of Ladakh. At the time of the partition, an independent country, as the state of Jammu and the state had important international boundaries such Kashmir had not yet decided to accede to either India as to the East was Tibet, to the North-east lay the or Pakistan. Maharaja therefore, agreed to sign the Sinkiang province of China and to the North-West instrument of accession with India. The Defence was Afghanistan. Therefore, it was difficult to committee in New Delhi thus reviewed the instrument determine the future of such a diverse, disparate and and decided to accept the accession and agreed to disunited princely state. send the battalion forces to combat the raiders (Menon 1955 : 273-274). Indian troops were flown into Though, shortly before the transfer of power, Srinagar on the morning of October 27, 1947, and the government of Jammu and Kashmir under Major reoccupied Uri on November 14. Though, Indian General Janak Singh intended to show his interest troops did make progress, they could not completely negotiating the standstill agreement with the drive out the raiders and the Pakistani army, thus respective governments of India and Pakistan. While resulting the division of the Dogra Kingdom into the Pakistan signed the Standstill agreement, India took Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan time to examine its implications. However, the Occupied Kashmir (POK) ( Kalyanaraman 2007:77- execution of the standstill agreement did not result in 78).2

Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 103 Pakistan occupies 78, 114 sq. kilometres out of the However, with the lapse of paramountcy, and total area of 222,236 sq. kilometres comprising the according to the Cabinet mission memorandum, the state of Jammu and Kashmir. POK is the total area political department retroceded the Gigit agency back under Pakistani occupation, which has been further to the Maharaja on August 1, 1947. The administrative divided by Pakistan into the so called “Azad Jammu control of all areas of the Gilgit Agency, including and Kashmir (AJK)” comprising Mirpur district of Hunza were handed over to the Kashmir State Jammu, and a portion of the North Western Kashmir government under Brigadier Ghansar Singh who was province, which constitutes less than 15 per cent of then appointed as the Governor by the Maharaja on the territory under Pakistani occupation; and the July 19, 1947. sparsely populated ‘Northern Areas’, now known as “Gilgit-Baltistan”, an amorphous entity governed Though, as a condition to serve the state, the directly by Islamabad, which constitutes more than Commandant of Gilgit Scouts, Major Brown and other 85 per cent of POK. officers demanded an improvement in the service conditions of the troops along with a salary hike. Geographically, the area of Gilgit-Baltistan Moreover, the administration in the agency paralysed is of paramount importance to both India and Pakistan. as some of the British officers had opted to side with Strategically located, sharing international borders and Pakistan. Thus, the Gilgit Scouts and the local as well rich in mineral resources, the area has great attraction as non-locals refused to cooperate with the new and potential in serving both commercial and security governor to run the administration of the state. Despite interests and therefore has become a major cause of repeated attempts, the Maharaja administration did conflict between India and Pakistan. The conflict over not pay much heed to the growing developments in the political status of the area and the growing the Gilgit agency. Soon after the ostensible surrender development and infrastructural programs in the of the Governor, a provisional government of region; especially with the increased presence of the “People’s Republic of Gilgit and Baltistan” was Chinese troops under CPEC has further intensified announced and an invite was sent to the Pakistan the tensions between India and Pakistan.Though, government to ‘help administer’ the region. On before deliberating upon the concerns and claims of November 4, 1947, the Pakistani flag was hoisted at both the states, it is imperative to comprehend the the Gigit Scouts lines by Major Brown as he conceded history and the political status of the area. to the accession of Gilgit to Pakistan. Subsequently, the rulers of the enclaves of Hunza and Nagar within Gilgit-Baltistan: In a State of “Constitutional the Gilgit agency, which were vassals of the Maharaja Limbo” ? of Kashmir also declared their accession to Pakistan The British government recognised Maharaja Gulab (Bansal 2007: 87).5 Singh’s full “independence” over Kashmir as per the 1846 Treaty of Amritsar. With the signing of the Treaty Since then Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan), of Amritsar, the British encouraged Gulab Singh to a cold desert covered around in the area of 72,495 sq spread his political influence in Gilgit-Baltistan in order km is administered directly by the federal government to establish a safe buffer state between Russia and of Pakistan. The fate of Gilgit was decided on April British India (Stobdan 2007:33).3 By 1870, the Dogras 28,1949 when officials of Pakistan government met were in entire control of the region and signed treaties with those of Azad Jammu and Kashmir government with rulers of Hunza and Nagar making them vassals and inked the Karachi agreement. Under the accord, of Kashmir. Though, fearing Soviet’s expansionist the leadership of ‘AJK’ conceded administration of moves in the region, the British in 1935 took Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan) to Pakistan. It was possession of what is known as the “Gilgit-Leased decided that the affairs of Gilgit will be run by the Area”, the area surrounding the right bank of River Pakistan government rather than the AJK Indus from Maharaja Hari Singh for 60 years. government. The decision however was taken Though, the area south of the River Indus in Dardistan without the presence or consent of any leader and and the entire Baltistan remained under the direct people from Gilgit. control of the Maharaja (Snedden 2015:92). 4

104 World Focus July 2017 Pakistan government therefore introduced a and altering with its status would make Pakistan’s separate ministry in the name of Federal ministry of claim over it attenuated. Hence, the area has been Kashmir affairs and Northern areas to run matters left clutching for an identity beset in regard to its of state affairs in Gilgit and adjoining areas .6 constitutional inclusion in Pakistan as the fifth province Subsequently, while ‘AJK’ has its own constitution or its integration with the state of Jammu and Kashmir governed under the Interim Constitution Act, 1974, as one of the unit of probable plebiscite. Pakistan did not let “Northern Areas” to be part of Azad Kashmir. Gilgit-Baltistan therefore remains in The Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self a state of political limbo for over half a century. Governance Order 2009 was one of the first major move by the PPP government towards full internal However, many cosmetic changes were autonomy of the area. The order intended to provide introduced in the area by different governments in greater political empowerment and better governance Pakistan, yet none of them guaranteed constitutional to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. Reform introduced rights to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. The area was through a Presidential order and approved by the given an advisory council in 1975 during the Prime federal cabinet, provided the area a status similar to ministership of Z.A. Bhutto. Whereas, in March that of a province and brought it at par with the other 1999, Pakistan Supreme court in its order declared provinces of Pakistan but however not a province. that the Northern areas be given the same political, Under the order, the name of the area was changed economic and administrative rights as given to other from “Northern areas” to “Gilgit-Baltistan”. It provinces of Pakistan.7. The verdict resulted in a approved the office of an elected Chief Minister by cosmetic change as the Northern Areas Advisory an elected legislative assembly and the Governor to council was upgraded to the Northern Areas be appointed by the President of Pakistan on the Legislative Council ( NALC), following the Northern advice of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. On similar Areas Council legal framework order 1994. Although, pattern of AJK council, a GB council, headed by the there was no real authority gained as the chief Prime Minister was also introduced. 10 executive of the council was the federal minister for Kashmir affairs and Northern areas, an appointee of Under the order, the Gilgit-Baltistan the federal government. The NALC was therefore Assembly was delegated with the powers of practically controlled by the Ministry of Kashmir approving the budget. Moreover, the concept of affairs and Northern areas (KANA) and had limited consolidated fund was introduced and the legislative scope of voicing out its grievances against Islamabad powers of the Assembly were increased from 49 to ( Sridhar 2008: 100).8 61 subjects along with the power to legislate on all other subjects not in the domain of the Gilgit-Baltistan With the increased demand for greater Council.11 autonomy, a new power sharing formula was devised by the federal government in 2002 wherein the However, the order still did not guarantee a Northern areas affairs were delinked from the provincial status as the people of Gilgit-Baltistan have Kashmir affairs division. The new formula provided been living with an indeterminate constitutional status the local level administrators the decision making for over 60 years; and are denied any representation authority on financial, administrative and development in the Parliament and the senate of Pakistan. matters. Though, the matters on prisons, law and home Whereas, the Azad Jammu and Kashmir have an affairs remained with the chief executive. 9 However, elaborate governance structure operating under an any demand for a politically empowered elected body interim constitution enacted by the legislative was repeatedly stuck down by the Pakistan ruling assembly in 1974. Pakistan thus is confronted with establishment on the ground that any attempt to three major obstacles in the act of incorporation. change the status of the northern areas would weaken Firstly, in order to create a province of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan’s case over Jammu and Kashmir. The it would require consent of other provinces and would government always maintained that the Northern require to create national assembly seats and areas are a part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir senators. Secondly, Islamabad is faced with the

Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 105 problem created by its own stand on Kashmir as provided a direct land link between these two absorption of Gilgit-Baltistan would imply Pakistan’s countries, but also gave China access to the Indian acknowledgement to India’s right to hold the territories Ocean region via a short land route. The highway of Jammu and Kashmir. Thirdly, repeated demands passes via Gilgit, and goes to Nagar and Hunza, along are raised by the people of Gilgit-Baltistan to have a the Hunza river ( Karim 2014:148).15 It is popularly separate entity to themselves ( Stobdan 2007:51). known as the “Friendship Highway”, and helps China achieve its strategic and economic goals in Indian government has repeatedly raised Afghanistan, Central Asia, Indian Ocean Region, the concerns over the obscure status of Gilgit-Baltistan Persian Gulf, Middle East and Africa (Sering since 1947. It opposed and criticised Pakistan’s illegal 2012:9).16 cession of part of territory occupied in Kashmir. The China-Pakistan ‘Boundary Agreement’ of 1963 Despite being termed as an “economic” became a major bone of contention for India and its project, the highway is far more than just a means of relations with its neighbours, Pakistan and China. expanding commercial trade ties. It is believed that Under the agreement, Pakistan ceded 5,180 kms of even the increased volume of trade does not make Indian territory in POK to China. India thereby the project economically viable and therefore, the objected the cessation and called the agreement politico-strategic significance of the highway “illegal” and “invalid”. 12 On July 15, 2009 in response outweighs its economic and commercial to India’s take on the loss of territory, India’s then considerations. Minister of State for External Affairs, Preneet Kaur maintained that, “ Pakistan had no legitimacy of her The Morkhun-Khunjerab Pass-Qila Nabi contiguous areas with Chinese Sinkiang and had road is perceived with great apprehension by the surrendered a large area of Indian territory to Indian State. The apprehension was expressed by China”.13 Dinesh Singh, the then Minister for External Affairs of India in the Lok Sabha. He asserted: India also lodged its protests against the “This road will help to extend the Chinese road “Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance network in the Tibet -Sinkiang area into Northern Order- 2009”. It maintained that Pakistan has for the Kashmir. It will give easier access to Chinese troops past six decades denied the basic democratic rights from the areas under the illegal occupation of China to the people in those parts of the state of Jammu in North East Kashmir and from Tibet into the Gilgit and Kashmir under its illegal occupation. The Indian area in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which lies to the government noted, “the so called order is yet another north of the ceasefire line. The military significance cosmetic exercise intended to camouflage Pakistan’s of this road is, therefore, self evident.” (Singh illegal occupation.”.14 1981:20)17

India’s Concern on rising Sino-Pakistan Therefore, it was believed that this Engagement in Gilgit-Baltistan encirclement will seriously damper India’s security The infrastructural and development projects interest in the region as in the event of any future undertaken jointly by the Pakistan and Chinese Sino-Indian conflict, the Chinese forces can quickly government in the Pakistan occupied Kashmir region be manoeuvred around from western-Tibet to have raised significant security concerns to the Indian northern Kashmir, thereby leaving the areas north of State. The Karakoram highway, a 1300 kms long Srinagar highly vulnerable. stretch of road connecting the strategic post of Kashgar in Xinjiang to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad Presently, the two countries are expanding have raised alarm in the Indian policy circle. Built their strategic relations. Huge investments are made through the formidable Karakoram- Himalayan by the Chinese government in the Gilgit-Baltistan mountain range, the highway brought about a major areas to expand the Karakoram corridor and build an change in the strategic landscape of the region in expressway, railway line and oil and gas pipeline favour of China and Pakistan. The highway not only through it. The Karakoram highway expansion project

106 World Focus July 2017 is China’s brainchild and is popularly known as the Maritime Silk Road. The initiative concerns 65 “All weather expressway”.The corridor development countries and 4.4 billion people. Perceived as the most project costs $6 billion and links Central Asia and important economic and strategic initiative, it aims at China to the Asian highway network, passing through promoting the development of three regions together; Afghanistan and Iran. Furthermore, a 1,100 km long Asia, Europe, Middle east and North Africa.18 China rail-link worth costing $10.237 billion is suggested to maintains that the project is an innovative method of be laid which will cut the distance between Pakistan cooperation in global governance in the face of a capital Islamabad and China’s trade centre Kashgar worsening economic climate and simmering to a mere 17 hours. In addition, oil and gas pipelines geopolitical problems worldwide. Founded on the idea will run across the corridor linking the existing fuel- of building a new network of global partnerships, lanes of Central Asia and China to refineries on OBOR claims to provide a fresh way of thinking Pakistani ports, and the middle east. The project also about regional and global cooperation, by including proposes to expand the network of feeder roads and both bilateral and multilateral cooperation in political, bridges, widening the road to thrice its present economic, cultural and other fields. It envisions the specifications and enhancing the load carrying creation of multiple economic corridors encompassing capacity by three times. more than 60 countries linking the most dynamic East Asia Economic Zone with the advanced European The Indian State from the very outset has Economic Zone. China propagates that the project is questioned the legitimacy of the projects undertaken not for unilateral advantage but for the common in the disputed territory of Gilgit-Baltistan. India claims prosperity and stability of the world. Chinese President that the area occupied by Pakistan and ceded to China Xi describes OBOR as a “chorus”, not a “soloist for the highway project is constitutionally a part of singing”.19 the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir. Strategically critical, India raised objections to the construction of One of the major project of the program in Karakoram highway in a disputed territory and Asia has been the building of the China-Pakistan objected to an increased presence of Chinese workers Economic Corridor. By April 2015, China and Pakistan and troops in the region. Since most of the expansion had signed accords worth $ 46 billion to build the projects in the area are carried out by Chinese China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Gilgit companies and corporate houses, India fears the Baltistan. The development project aims at increased stronghold of China in the area and establishing a network of highways, railways, oil perceives it as its larger geo-strategic agenda of pipelines, fibre optic cables and special economic counter-balancing India in the South Asian region. zones, linking the Chinese trading hub of Kashgar in Major concerns were raised by New Delhi as the Xinjiang province with the Pakistan port city of multifarious projects carried in the POK area would Gwadar in the Balochistan province, located near the strengthen Pakistan’s position economically and strategic Straits of Hormuz. strategically and would help it exert physical presence to counter India’s claim over Gilgit-Baltistan. The area of Gilgit-Baltistan is paramount in the successful implementation of CPEC as it is the Moreover, the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan is only land connection between Pakistan and China an essential part of the China-Pakistan Economic and all the roads and pipelines and most of the Corridor, a multi-million dollar development project communication networks runs through this under China’s larger One Belt One Road Initiative. mountainous area. It will help the corridor extend till The Belt and Road initiative is one of China’s single Gwadar port in Pakistan which will give China access most ambitious foreign policy initiative introduced in to the Indian ocean and beyond.Thus, both September-October 2013. It is perceived as a long strategically and commercially, the access to Gwadar term infrastructural development program with the will enable China to gain immensely as the port on objective of regional economic integration. The BRI the Arabian sea shares a strategic location between has two major components: the land based Silk Road South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia at the mouth Economic Belt and the sea- based 21st Century of the Persian Gulf, just outside the Straits of Hormuz.

Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 107 Proximity of China’s Xinjiang to Gwadar will make to relocate families whose houses come in the path trade for China cost-effective as the port is close to of the dam or pay compensation for the loss of their the Gulf, Central Asia, Europe and Africa. land. 25However, battling the opposition from the locals, CM Gilgit-Baltistan, Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman The port will also enable China to monitor recently announced that a 180 MW power generation the sea-lanes from the Persian Gulf as about 60% of project is approved under CPEC for Gilgit Baltistan.26 Chinese energy requirements come from the Persian The fate of GB is intertwined with the Kashmir issue Gulf. Moreover, strategically the port can provide in respect to the provision of constitutional rights and China the access to observe the Indian naval activities provincial autonomy. Though, with the coming of around the Persian Gulf and check the India-US CPEC, other concerns such as the compensation for domination of Indian Ocean. Whereas, on the other the acquisition of land too have loomed large. For hand, the port will help Pakistan to monitor the Sea example: under CPEC, one special economic zone is Lines of Communications (SLOCs) originating from approved to be constructed in Gilgit-Baltistan over the Persian Gulf (Malik:2012: 58).20 250 acres land in Maqpoondaas where agro-based, minerals, livestock, handicrafts and wood related However despite being strategically trades have been marked as potential industries. It is important to the CPEC, the region of Gilgit-Baltistan believed that CPEC can serve as a catalyst for the has been largely neglected and discriminated. In the much needed institutional development in the region recent visit to China for the One Belt One Road as the infrastructure development along with the Forum (OBOR), the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan institutional arrangements will bring the region in a was not rendered any invitation; while the Chief better position to address the economic woes of the Minister of all four provinces of Pakistan had communities (Nigar 2017)27 Though, apprehensions accompanied PM Sharif to the summit. A large are that the area will be treated as a colony and the number of protesters gathered in Skardu raised trade might be beneficial to the outsiders than to the concerns against the exploitative and discriminatory locals. policies adopted by the Pakistan government in the area.21 India and CPEC Indian government’s stance on CPEC has been People are also disgruntled with some of the outright. It has publicly expressed its resolute infrastructural and development projects undertaken disapproval on various occasions. Recently being in the area under CPEC. The construction of the formally invited by China to participate in the six Diamer-Bhasha dam in Gilgit-Baltistan has raised separate forums as part of the Belt and Road project concerns amongst the local people. With storage held in Beijing from May 14-16, 2017, India refused capacity of about 8 million acre-feet (MAF) and to send any representation. India maintains its long projected electricity generation of 4,400 MW, the standing stance on opposing the projects undertaken government had acquired land for the dam to meet by Pakistan and Chinese government in the disputed the energy crisis in the country.22 In the recent visit, POK region. While refusing its participation, the Chinese government has agreed to support Pakistan Ministry of External Affairs official spokesperson, on its biggest dam project in Gilgit-Baltistan and back Gopal Baglay remarked, “Connectivity projects must its energy investments.23 be pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity.” He further stated, “connectivity Though, despite acute electricity shortages, initiatives must be based on universally recognised the dam is being opposed by people in Gilgit on the international norms, good governance, rule of law, pretext that it would affect the social, economic and opens transparency and equality.”28 Indian Ministers ecological balance in the region and would inundate and officials at various platforms have repeatedly 32 villages of the Diamer district in North areas, shown their discontent over the project. In his implicit rendering thousands of people homeless. 24Moreover, remark on the CPEC, PM. Modi in his inaugural the residents of Kohistan district recently staged a speech at the second Raisina Dialogue held in New protest complaining that the Gilani government is yet Delhi postulated, “ Connectivity in itself cannot

108 World Focus July 2017 override or undermine the sovereignty of other secondly, it holds doubts about CPEC’s economic nations. Only be respecting the sovereignty of viability and subsequent anxiety about it being a countries involved, can regional connectivity corridors geopolitical ploy; and thirdly China’s overall stance fulfil their promise and avoid differences and regarding India on the Road Belt Initiative to date. It discord.”29 assessed that CPEC has security implications for India as it runs through territories that it disputes with Whereas, Indian Foreign Secretary, S Pakistan and China. India further claims that China Jaishankar expressed his displeasure over the project is not respecting international law by allowing CPEC by stating, “China is very sensitive about its to run through disputed territory and therefore has a sovereignty. The economic corridor passes through fundamental objection to it. The assertiveness and an illegal territory, an area that we call Pakistan swiftness of Chinese actions in the South China Sea occupied Kashmir. You can imagine India’s reaction have implanted a preoccupation among China’s critics at the fact that such a project has been initiated in India that if China gains a foothold in the Arabian without consulting us” 30 sea, and as an extension, in the Indian ocean through Gwadar, it might make national interest claims in China however discredits India’s concerns India’s maritime sphere too.34 Hence, CPEC and and noted, “ China has no intention of interfering in greater involvement of China in the region has further the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. intensified the already sour relations between India China has long believed that the two neighbours should and Pakistan. solve their dispute through dialogue and consultations, and it has repeatedly emphasised that the construction Endnotes of the CPEC would not affect its stance on the issue.” 1 Menon, V.P. (1955), “The story of the Integration of the It therefore considers India’s concerns as Indian States“, Longmans, Green and Co: London. 2 “unwarranted” and proposed it to adopt an “objective” Kalyanaraman, S. (2007), “Dawn of Independence and and more “pragmatic” attitude towards the One Belt, the Tribal Raid“, in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir:The Untold Story ed. Virendra Gupta and Alok Bansal, Manas One Road proposal and see it as an open and inclusive Publications, New Delhi. 31 regional integration program. 3 Stobdan, P (2007), “ Gilgit and Baltistan: The Historical Dimension“, in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir:The Untold Reiterating along the same lines, Pakistan Story ed. Virendra Gupta and Alok Bansal, Manas Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif remarked, “ the China- Publications, New Delhi. Pakistan Economic Corridor was open to all countries 4 Snedden, Christopher (2015), “Understanding Kashmir in the region and it ‘must not be politicised’”. While and Kashmiris“, Hurst and Company, London. 5 Bansal, Alok (2007), “ Annexation of Gilgit-Baltistan: directing his remark on growing India’s apprehension, Tumultuous events of 1947-48“ in Pakistan Occupied he emphasised that, “One Belt One Road project Kashmir:The Untold Story ed. Virendra Gupta and Alok negated the logic of polarisation and rejected the Bansal, Manas Publications, New Delhi. encirclement of any country.” 32 6 Zulfiqar Ali, Tariq Naqash, Jamil Nagri, “ ‘ Almost’ Pakistan: Gilgit-Baltistan in a constitutional limbo“, Dawn, In regard to the construction of the Diamer- January 19, 2017, [Online: Web] Accessed February 16, Bhasha dam, India lodged protests with Pakistan as 2017 URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/1198967 7 well as China to stop funding infrastructure project “Northern Areas of Pakistan-Facts, Problems and Recommendations“ (2004), Institute of Policy Studies, Vol on a territory “illegally” occupied. MEA spokesperson, 1 (1), p.121. Vikas Swarup further noted, “New Delhi opposes 8 Sridhar, Seema (2008), “Diamer-Basha and Mangla Dams: any development projects in POK, which is under The Emerging water conflict in POK“ in The “forcible and illegal” occupation”. 33 Last Colony: Muzaffarabad- Gilgit and Baltistan ed. P.Stobdan and D.Suba Chandran,India Research Press, A report published by the Stockholm New Delhi. 9 International Peace Research Institute observed that “N.Areas, Kashmir division delinked: New power sharing India’s stance on CPEC is governed by three main formula“, Dawn, October 24, 2002, [Online:Web] Accessed January 22, 2016 URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/63217 drivers. Firstly,it runs through disputed territory;

Geo-Politics of Gilgit-Baltistan: India and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 109 10 “Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance 2017/pakistan-china-likely-to-sign-mou-on-diamer- Order 2009“, Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly , bhasha-dam [Online:Web] Accessed March 5, 2015 URL: http:// 23 “China backs Pakistan on POK dam ahead of Belt and gbla.gov.pk/page/governance-order Road Forum“, India Today, May 13, 2017 [Online :Web] 11 “Autonomy order for Gilgit-Baltistan signed“, Dawn, Accessed May 14, 2017 URL: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/ September 08, 2009, [Online:Web] Accessed March 4, 2016 story/china-pakistan-pok-belt-and-road-forum-summit- URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/856300 diamer-bhasha-dam-gilgit-baltistan-india/1/953158.html 12 “China-Pak ‘Boundary Agreement’ illegal: India“, The 24 “Diamer- Bhasha dam: Risks and Controversies“, Dawn, Indian Express, July 15, 2009, [ Online: Web] Accessed November 17, 2008 [Online:Web] Accessed April 10, 2017 April 15, 2016 URL: http://archive.indianexpress.com/ URL: https://www.dawn.com/news/968061 news/chinapak-boundary-agreement-illegal-india/489775/ 25 Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, “Pakistan rebuffs India with 13 Noorani, A.G., “Global Imbalances, Recovery and the Diamer-Bhasha Dam in POK“, India Today, October 20, East Asian Response: What we Know and What we do 2011 [Online:Web] Accessed April 10, 2017 URL: http:// not know, The Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement“, indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pakistan-rebuffs-india-with- Pakistan Defence, April 25, 2014 [ Online: Web] Accessed diamer-bhasha-dam-in-pok/1/156857.html February 10, 2017 URL: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ 26 Fawad, Masood, “180 MW power generation project what-we-know-and What-we-do-not-know-the-sino-pak- approved under CPEC for GB: CM“, Business Recorder, boundary-agreement.310842/ January 17, 2017 [Online:Web] Accessed April 10, 2017 14 “Government of India protests to Pakistan against the URL: http:/www.brecorder.com/2017/01/16/334849/ “Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order- 27 Nigar, Neelum (2017), “Establishing Special Economic 2009“, Ministry of External Affairs, September 11, 2009 Zones in Gilgit-Baltistan under CPEC“, Institute of Strategic [Online: Web] Accessed August 10, 2015 URL: http:// Studies. www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/1329/ 28 Apurva, Shubhajit Roy, “One Belt One Road: China- GOI_protests_to Pakistan_against_the_GilgitBaltistan Pakistan warmth, India skips summit“, The Indian Express, Empowerment_ and_Self_Governance Order_2009 May 14, 2017 [Online:Web] Accessed May 14, 2017 URL: 15 Karim, Afsir (2014), “The Karakoram Himalayan Region: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/one-belt-one-road- Geopolitical Perspective“ in The Other Kashmir: Society, summit-china-india-pakistan-cpec-4654401/ Culture and Politics in the Karakoram Himalayas ed. K. 29 “Inaugural Address by Prime Minister at Second Raisina Warikoo, Pentagon Press, New Delhi. Dialogue, New Delhi“, Ministry of External Affairs, January 16 Sering, Senge (2012), “ Expansion of the Karakoram 17, 2017 [ Online:Web] Accessed February 14, 2017 URL: Corridor: Implications and Prospects“, Lancers Books, http://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/27948/ New Delhi. Inaugural_Address_by_Prime_Minister_at_Second_Raisina_Dialogue 17 Singh, Gurnam (1981), The Karakoram Highway and its _New_Delhi_January_17_2017 strategic implications for India, The Indian Journal of 30 Kallol, Bhattacherjee, “Respect territorial sovereignty, Political Science, Vol 42(1), pp.18-26. 18 Jianmin, WU, “One India tells China“, The Hindu, January 18, 2017 [Online: Belt and One Road“, Far reaching Initiative, China-US Web] Accessed March 16, 2017 URL:http:// Focus, March 26, 2015, [Online: Web] Accessed January www.thehindu.com/news/national/Respect-territorial- 10, 2017 URL: http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance- sovereignty India tells China/article17054467.ece economy/one-belt-and-one-road-far-reaching-initiative/ 31 Yu Ning, “ India should have an open mind toward 19 Yafei, He, “Connecting the world through “Belt and CPEC“, Global Times, February 23, 2017 [Online:Web] Road“, China-US Focus, October 13, 2015, [Online:Web] Accessed May 10, 2017 URL: http://www.globaltimes.cn/ Accessed January 11, 2017 URL: http:// content/1034606.shtml www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-belt-road- 32 “ CPEC must not be politicised, says Sharif“, Dawn, initiative-offers-new-model-of-cooperation-in-global- May 15, 2017 [Online:Web] Accessed May 17, 2017 URL: governance http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailImage.php?StoryImage 20 Malik, Hasan Yaser (2012), “Strategic Importance of =15_05_2017_001_006 Gwadar Port“, Journal of Political Studies, Vol 19 (2), 33 “India against infrastructure projects in POK:MEA“, pp.57-69. The Indian Express, October 24, 2015 [Online:Web] 21 Imtiaz Ali, “ ‘Thousands’ protest government’s Accessed May 10, 2017 URL: http://indianexpress.com/ negligence of Gilgit Baltistan under CPEC“, Dawn, May article/india/india-news-india/india-against-infrastructure- 15, 2017 [Online:Web] Accessed May 15, 2017 URL: https:/ projects-in-pok-mea/ /www.dawn.com/news/1333298 34 Ghiasy, Richard and Jiayi Zhou (2017), “The Silk Road 22 “Pakistan, China likely to sign MoU on Diamer-Bhasha Economic Belt: Considering security implications and EU- dam“, The Nation, May 08, 2017 [Online: Web] Accessed China cooperation prospects“, Stockholm International May 09, 2017 URL: http://nation.com.pk/business/08-May- Peace Research Institute.

110 World Focus July 2017 State Sponsored Terrorism in India: Why India’s Conducted Surgical Strikes in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir? Afroz Ahmad & Jahangir Ahmad Khan

Introduction attacks were launched mainly against the Indian India’s experiences with state sponsor terrorism, like security forces.5 India faced its first state sponsor other countries in the South Asian region, can also be terrorism in Punjab. The terrorism in Punjab was broadly divided into external and internal terrorism. active for over a decade broadly, from 1980-1990. A External largely covers state sponsor terrorism, segment of Sikhs here demanded Khalistan concerns with “cross-border terrorism” perpetrated independent state. Terrorism was used as the main by Indian neighbouring countries especially terrorist instrument to challenge the government and coerce groups based in Pakistan with connections to Al- the local population including the sizeable number of Qaeda. More recently, the appearance of support Hindu. The movement was assisted by Pakistan, groups based in Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri which provided its arm logistic support and safe Lanka has resulted in the spread of terrorism from havens. The Sikh diaspora based in Canada and other specific locale to urban centres in India.1 India has countries were also a source of found and moral faced state sponsor terrorism since gaining its support. Sikh militants based in Canada blew up the independence from the British. Pakistan’s propensity Indian passenger plane Kanishka, claiming the lives for using non-state actors as proxies to fight its war of 329 people the largest number of people killed in a goes back to 1947 and the founding of the Pakistani single attack in India so far. The terrorist violence state, and has continued to the present.2 supported by external countries here posed multiple long term threats to India’s territorial integrity, national Terrorism across the border has provided the unity and secular culture. The new kind of violence conventional and nuclear balance between India and was a potent mix of unconventional warfare state Pakistan irrelevant. The US government believes that sponsor terrorism. Several terrorist groups called Pakistan also funds, trains and equips militant groups Jihadi operating against India are based in Pakistan and supports their asymmetric strategies. Apart from and Bangladesh, with their planning cells and modules an ongoing covert war in Kashmir, Pakistan’s Inter- located in other neighbouring countries too. In Services Intelligence (ISI) also supported insurgent demographic and religious mosaic that is South Asian groups in Punjab seeking an independent Khalistan ethnic and religious groups are able to move freely state from 1984-1995.3 There exists a strong link across international border and merge with the local between the growing spread of militancy and population.6 Jammu and Kashmir problem can be terrorism in South Asia to the Afghan war in the 1980s, traced to the partition of the country science which saw a corresponding upsurge in US aid and independence 1947. The partition of the country in Saudi funneling of arms to the anti-Soviet guerrillas 1947 may be the origin of the Kashmir crisis, but it is through Pakistan’s ISI agency. During the not the only cause of the continuing conflict in the Afghanistan war the ISI “created a string of training Jammu and Kashmir, rather it is the failure of camps along the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir mainly democratic institutions that has alienated the people with Saudi funding, to turn out religiously motivated in the state and perpetuated the conflict.7 The decade students, in what later became characterized as an of 1980s marked the beginning of an anti-India 4 ‘assembly line of gun-fodder’ for the mujahidin”. insurgency and separatist movement with a deeply flawed unemployment amongst educated youth, Terrorism in India till the 1980s was confined rampant corruption, and rigging of the 1987 election to the Northeast tribal region where separatists had to the State Assembly resulted in deterioration of the raised flags of revolt against the Indian Union. The law and order situation.8 insurgencies in the north east were localized and State Sponsored Terrorism in India: 111 Why India’s Conducted Surgical Strikes in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir? India’s neighbor took advantage of the situation, and Home Ministry records, security forces suffered most began to arm and train Kashmiri youths who crossed in 2001 when 536 of them were killed, followed by over the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir Line of Control 453 in 2002. But the damage suffered by forces has for training in insurgency operations against India. been significantly reduced since 2012 when only 15 The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), a security forces lost their lives. militant separatist movement, was initially responsible for all political violence and insurgency in Kashmir. In this concern most of the security analysts There is a common belief among terrorist groups that and academicians uttered that after the cessation of India is harming Muslims and Muslim interests. US aid to the Mujahideen fighters following the Terrorists have used “an essentially nationalistic withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan, huge conflict and morphed it into a pan-Islamic jihad, a caches of arms remained with the Northern Alliance religious war with global implications”.9 With this and the ubiquitous Pakistani ISI Agency, which were dimension terrorism has become a way of life in South subsequently used to arm the jihad.11 Such analysts Asia, inflicting destruction on the civilian population asserted that jihadist organizations affiliated to the and property, and bringing about unprecedented International Islamic Front (IIF) had been active in misery. Being wedged between authoritarian states Jammu and Kashmir since 1993. Since 1998 Al- or fledgling democracies engaged in breach of Qaeda imprint was felt in India in the form of jihadist international law by exporting terrorism, narcotics and suicide terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Al-Qaeda’s fake currency, India since the 1980s has been fighting modus operandi in terms of use of improvised a proxy war in the Indian part of Kashmir with Islamic explosive devices (IEDs), fidayeen suicide attacks, militants and groups committed to the cause of self-fabricated explosives, use of the internet (for liberating Kashmir.10 communication, propaganda and other operational purposes), and use of mobile phones as trigger devices, The Jammu and Kashmir has been affected all became visible in India. Also the selection of soft by terrorist and secessionist violence, sponsored and targets, civilians, economic and strategic supported from across the border, for more than two infrastructure, was seen as being akin to the Al-Qaeda and half decades. Since the advent of terrorism in mode of operation. The indigenous insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir in 1990, 13928 Civilians and Jammu and Kashmir that was initially spearheaded 4,946 Security Force personnel have lost their lives by the JKLF and the Hizbul Mujahideen losing steam up to December 2015. State sponsored terrorism in the mid 1990s, the ISI seized the opportunity to continues to bleed Jammu and Kashmir. This state prop up Pakistan-based groups like Harkat-ul-Ansar, has witnessed an average of eight terror-related LeT, and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in an attempt to incidents per day during the past 25 years. As many escalate the ‘‘proxy war’’ in Jammu and Kashmir.12 as 18,938 civilians and security forces have been killed By doing so, the ISI also took control of the insurgency in over 69,395 terrorism-related incidents across the in Jammu and Kashmir. Well-trained terrorist training state since 1990-2015 while around 21,800 terrorists camps run by the ISI and located in Pakistan have been gunned down in encounters with security Occupied Kashmir, in Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Chinari, forces during this period of turmoil and bloodshed. Mirpur, Gilgit, Diamer and various parts of the Neelum Valley operatives from these groups had no particular The highest number of terrorism related affinity for Jammu and Kashmir. They switched roles incidents was recorded in year 1995 when the state effortlessly between insurgent actions while infiltrating saw 5,938 such incidents, followed closely by 5,829 into Jammu and Kashmir through tough Indian terror incidents in 1994. However, the number of terror defences along the Line of Control (LOC), melting incidents has and civilian casualties have recorded a away into the semi-urban landscape of the Kashmir declining trend since 2006 and 2007 respectively. Only Valley and waiting for an opportunity to perpetrate 170 incidents, the lowest-ever in past 25 years, were acts of terrorism.13 In the post 9/11 period, while the witnessed in 2013. A total of 4,946 security forces main focus of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda was to take have lost their lives in counter-terrorism operation on the might of the US. The ISI managed to exploit during the past 25 years. According to the Indian the situation and the period between 2001 to 2005

112 World Focus July 2017 saw a massive induction of what the Indian Army to elements within the Pakistani government”. called Foreign Terrorists (FT) into Jammu and Regarding India’s Army Northern Command and Kashmir, with many of them managing to move out several statements of civilian authorities, the “evidence of Jammu and Kashmir and into the Indian collected at the scene indicated the attackers were hinterland.14The two deadliest terrorist groups in 2015 foreign and their equipment fool Pakistani markings. in India were LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen, which are This proves that the entire operation was planned also were operating in Pakistan, Afghanistan and and executed by Pakistan and shows that, once again, Bangladesh. LeT mainly operates in Pakistan and Pakistan has not stopped using terrorism as a tool of was responsible for 22 deaths in 2015. Hizbul foreign policy.Moreover The Uri attack was not the Mujahideen, an allegedly based in Pakistan, has been first Pakistani sponsored terrorism, India has victims responsible for fewer deaths since its peak in 2013. several time Pakistani sponsored terrorism especially The group was responsible for 30 deaths in 2013, ISI sported terrorist group.18 which fell to 11 the following year and to seven deaths in 2015. Thus, the Uri attack was not the first terrorist attack under the BJP led- Narendra Modi Trained militants belonging to the Lashkar- government. There have been two other major e-Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, Harkat ul Mujahideen, terrorist attacks on Indian soil since the government Jeish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and others are given cameinto power in May 2014. The first attack was in protection and logistical support by the Pakistani army Punjab where three civilians and fourpolicemen were until they are sent across the LoC in batches of five killed in the Gurdaspur district. A more disturbing one to ten. The Pakistani army also maintains many took place inJanuary 2016 when terrorists targeted terrorist camps across the border in Pakistan and has one of India’s most important air force bases in launching pads available in the Pakistan-Occupied Pathankot in Punjab.19 Here, the core question that Kashmir that keeps small groups of terrorist waiting needs to be answered is: why did the Indi Conducted for infiltration into Indian controlled Jammu and Surgical Strikes in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir after Kashmir.15 Pakistan-assisted infiltration across the the Uri attacks? What made the governmentof India LoC tends to succeed in effecting penetration into so complacent that it did not take any action in the India. The terrorists, trained in guerrilla warfare, wake of the previous attacks? This factor of different manage to hide in the dense vegetation and when responses to the similar kinds of attacks needs to be detected and engaged they often manage to escape answered.Important think history shows that for the into the hinterland after hours and days of exchange last ten years all the terrorist attacks that have taken of gunfire with the security forces.16 place havetargeted civilians and non-military areas. However, the last three recent terrorist attackshave Uri Attack focussed on military areas and presumably show a On the 18 September 2016, in the early morning, four new area of focus. The attack in Uri cannot be just terrorists entered an Indian Army Camp in the town passed off as any other terrorist attack, as it has larger of Uriof Uri in Jammu and Kashmir. The terrorists - ramifications and canbe seen as a threat to the also known as Fedayeen- appeared to be well trained sovereignty to India. Destruction of military assets is and heavily armed. They had automatic weapons, a directthreat to the military prowess of India. grenade launcher attachments and other equipment. In the several hours of exchange of fire between the Surgical strikes security forces and the terrorists, 18 Indian soldiers Uri attack following the death of 18 solders, national were killed, 30 injured and all four terrorists were and international community, keenly watch how killed in action. However, despite the fact that no Narendra Modi’s government response for this attack. group has claimed responsibility for the attack, there The India’s quick response to the Uri attack has are several indications that the terrorists belong to followed privies pattern anger against the enemy, and Pakistan-based armed group JeM.17 There are the condom of the state sponsored terrorist the “deep allegations, that JeM, a militant group that has been state” represented by the Pakistan based terrorist active in Kashmir for more than 15 years, “have links group. The first response, home minister Rajnath

State Sponsored Terrorism in India: 113 Why India’s Conducted Surgical Strikes in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir? Singh, has criticized Pakistan, called it a “terrorist surgical strikes in the would not only boost Modi’s state” and immediately cancelled his visit to the US image as a leader, who walked the talk and punished and Russia, then PM Modi has assured the nation the perpetrators of Uri attack, he also help the BJP that the perpetrators of this “despicable attack” will gain an upper hand in the upcoming state elections, be punished.20But other side the death of solders the especially in Uttar Pradesh. Some of BJP leaders in righteous national anger and public opinion was against Uttar Pradesh made government action a campaigning to government palpable. The pressure of the Modi tool and praised India’s “surgical strike” in several government to take action agents the perpetrators of banners and hoardings. The State is expected to go Uri attack. In response to Modi Government to the Assembly polls in less than four months; in launched “surgical strikes” on terrorist bases along Uttar Pradesh, hoardings state: “We will kill you and the LoC, Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir after 11 days kill you for sure but with our gun, our bullet, at our of Uri attack have brought about a sigh of relief for time of convenience but at your place.” Photos of the Modi government.21 Consequently, the the hoardings were showing PM Narendra Modi, BJP government’s response to the Uri attack is grounded Chief Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh BJP Keshav Prasad in real politics and provides the government with Maurya and others. The posters then congratulate realistic options and leverage. the government and the army for the offensive.Above discussion clearly indicates that state sponsored Other pressure of the Modi Government is terrorism is very active in India. Especially the also to punish the perpetrators of Uri attack. Actually Pakistan sponsored terrorist groups like: Harkat-ul- the pressure of Modi Government upcoming UP and Mujahideen (HuM) Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Punjab state elections, before election (especially Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT), and Jaish-e-Mohammed, Uttar Pradesh elections as the BJP was already on are supported by Pakistan’s ISI and these groups have the back foot) because the death of soldiers in Uri established training campus in Pakistan occupied attack most of the Hindi regions especially the Kashmir (PoK). According Indian Government UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Punjab. The official reports more than 55 terrorist camps are anger and unrest were coming out against Modi active in PoK . Government officials said that at government from entire India. According to Samita least 20 new terrorist camps have come up in the Gupta (Deputy Editor at The Hindu in Delhi), she last four months. witnessed a discussion where a man named Ganesh Shankar Yadav said that “diplomatic measures and Endnote 1 B. Raman, (2006) “Global Terrorism: India’s Concerns”, Papers South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG), tough speeches in the United Nation (UN). won’t No. 2021, 12 November 2006. 2 Chellaney, B. (2001) “Terrorism in Southern Asia: Lessons of History”, International Security. 26: help Pakistan reform”, adding, “Modi ji should show (3) 94-116. 3 Asthana, Vandana (2010) “Cross-Border Terrorism in India: Counterterrorism Strategies and Challenges”, us that he really has a 56 inch chest. If the United ACDIS Occasional Paper, Department of Government and International Affairs Eastern Washington University State can enter into other countries’ territories and 4 Gregory, S. (2007) “The ISI and the War on Terrorism”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. 30: (12) 1013-1031. 5 Afsir Karim (2009) “Terrorism: the Indian experience” Edited by Maroof Raza confronting terrorism; shoot down terrorists, why can’t we? Otherwise, he Londan: Penguin group. 6 Ibid is taking a risk in these elections.” These states were 7 Marwah, Ved (2003) India’s internal security challenges , Strategic Analysis, 27:(4), 503-515, 8 Jamwal, N.S. (2003) “Counter terrorism strategy”, Strategic Analysis, 27: (1), 56-78. play to very important role come to power of the 9 Weaver, M. A. (2002) “Pakistan: In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan“, New York: Farrar, Staus and Giroux. Modi Government in 2014 parliament election. But 10 Asthana, Vandana (2010) “Cross-Border Terrorism in India: Counterterrorism Strategies and Challenges”, ACDIS Occasional Paper, Department of Government and International Affairs Eastern last one year government loses the public faith Washington University 11 Mennessier, Claire (2015) “Financing Terror, Part II: Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism”, STRIFE especially Dalit and minority community. So, the Accessed at https://strifeblogdotorg2.wordpress.com/2015/01/19/financing-terror-part-ii-pakistan-as- a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/ 12 Subramaniam, Arjun (2012) “Challenges of Protecting India From Terrorism”, Terrorism and anguish of the people and criticism of Modi’s policy Political Violence, 24: (3) 396-414. 13 Ibid towards Pakistan put the incumbent Modi government 14 B. Raman, (2002) ‘‘Al Qaeda Empire in Pakistan and Spurt in Terrorism in Kashmir’’ South Asia Analysis Group. 29 November 2002. http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/paper554 on the spot and consequently, action had to be taken 15 The Hindu (2015), “Pakistan supported, trained terror groups: Musharraf”, http://www.thehindu.com/ news/international/south-asia/pakistan-supported-trained-terror-groups-like-lashkaretaiba-pervez- to satiate the public demand for revenge. This has musharraf/article7813284.ece 16 SADF (2016) “Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism The Pathankot attack”, Policy Brief paper, South also led to a sense of satisfaction among the voters, Asia Democratic Forum. 17 Ahmad, afroz and Sunil Kaumar (2016) “Surgical strikes seem to Kill two birds with one stone for many of whom would be voting in Uttar Pradesh. Modi Government”, South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), Comment at http://sadf.eu/new/wp-content/ uploads/2016/10/Comment.N.43.Kumar_.pdf 18 Ibid However pressure to the Modi government re- 19 Inid 20 C. Uday Bhaskar (2016) “Uri attack: Pressure on Modi govt to act decisively ‘now’ is visible, but performance again archived to vote bank in UP. BJP must be well thought through”, The Indian Express, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ uri-uri-attack-jawans-killed-kashmir1-attack-pm-narendra-modi-india-pakistan-relation-3037925 leader, on the ground, the party assesses that the 21 Harsh V Pant (2016) “Why Modi took 11 days to order surgical strikes against Pakistan”, Daily open, http://www.dailyo.in/politics/indian-army-surgical-strikes-pok-uri-kashmir-narendra-modi/story/ 1/13171.html 114 World Focus July 2017 Contrasting Development: A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Parul Khatri & Charu Khatri

Introduction Minister Benazir Bhutto, during Pakistan’s Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) has been a major Independence Day celebrations, had termed Kashmir issue of incongruity between India and Pakistan since the unfinished task of partition. In response, on the partition. PoK is commonly known in Pakistan as following day, during India’s Independence Day Azad Kashmir (which lies to the west of the India’s celebrations, the-then Indian Prime Minister PV state of Jammu and Kashmir) and Gilgit-Baltistan. Narsimha Rao had rightly pointed out that the only While India refers these areas as”Pakistan occupied unfinished task of partition was Pakistan-Occupied- Kashmir”, United Nations and other international Kashmir. organisations refer to these areas as “Pakistan administered Kashmir”. The Line of Control (LoC) The August of 1947 witnessed a gory partition, refers to the military control line which separates India but what it also brought along was a partition perhaps and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). one of the most haphazardly done in the history of mankind. Largely drawn as an imaginary line by Cyril There have been numerous unresolved Radcliffe, who by profession was neither an conflicts between India and Pakistan over Pakistan administrator nor a cartographer, the Radcliffe Line occupied Kashmir (PoK) since the first Kashmir war divided not only land but also people, while sowing as it is called, was fought in 1947-48 between these seeds of further division in the hearts and minds of two newly built nations over the princely state of people on both sides. The-then ruler of Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir. Both, India and Pakistan were Maharaja Hari Singh, though initially choosing to at war with each other in the years 1965, 1971 and remain independent, was later driven towards 1999. The hostile relationship between India and integrating the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan due to Pakistan occupied Kashmir has grown with the Union of India. Unable to defend his kingdom sour over the years and has resulted in immense loss against several thousand Pashtun raiders aiming to of life and resources on both sides. overthrow his rule, Maharaja Hari Singh signed an Instrument of Accession on October 24, 1947, handing This paper discusses the economic realities over control of defence, external affairs and of India and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (Pok) in the communications to the Government of India in return continuous environment of heightened tension which for military aid. hampers growth and development of both these area. India has come a long way since independence and Even as the armies of India and Pakistan has become one of the major economies in the world fought each other, the two areas of control stabilised today whereas on the other hand, the development around what is now known as the Line of Control. path of Pakistan occupied Kashmir has not been so As the chain of events unfolded post the uprising impressive. against Maharaja Hari Singh in the spring of 1947, India approached the United Nations for resolving India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK): A the Kashmir dispute. The military representatives of Historical Perspective India and Pakistan met together in Karachi from 18 On the sidelines of the recently held World Economic July to 27 July 1949 under the auspices of the Truce Forum 2017 at Davos, Pakistan’s ex-Army Chief Sub-committee of the United Nations Commission General termed Kashmir as the for India and Pakistan. While the UN resolution did unfinished agenda of Pakistan. This is reminiscent of pass in favour of holding a plebiscite in Kashmir, the the August of 1994 when former Pakistan Prime plebiscite hasn’t been held till date because of non- Contrasting Development: 115 A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) fulfilment of precondition requiring withdrawal of the become the most populous country in the world. Pakistani army along with the non-state elements. India’s population was recorded as 1.311 billion in 2015 which shows the increasing rate at which Originally known as the Cease Fire Line, it population is growing in the country. The population was redesignated as the Line of Control (LoC) post of Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) in the historic Shimla Agreement of 1972. As part of 2015 was recorded at 4.466 million and that for Shimla Agreement, both the Governments agreed that Pakistan was 191.71 million. the Line of Control (LoC) resulting from cease fire on 17th December, 1971 shall be respected by both The population growth rate for India was sides without prejudice to the recognised position of 1.2% in 2015 while it was 2.41 % for Azad Kashmir either side. While the Line of Control (LoC) is not a (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). According to the World legally recognised international boundary, it continues Bank data, Population density (people per sq. km of to be the defacto border between India and Pakistan, land area) in India was 441 in 2015 whereas it was dividing the erstwhile princely State of Jammu and 336 for Azad Kashmir ( Pakistan occupied Kashmir) Kashmir into what today forms part of the Indian as reported by Planning and Development state of Jammu & Kashmir and the Pakistan-occupied Department, Azad Govt. of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. The problem of Kashmir has long moved Kashmir. beyond traditional geostrategy, transcending into the realms of history, economy and sociology among Per Capita Income others. Per capita income or average income measures the average income earned per person in a given area A comparison of Economic Development in (city, region, country, etc.) in a specified year. It is India and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) on calculated by dividing the area’s total income by its various aspects: total population. The per capita income of India in Total Geographical Area the year 2015 was 1,593.3 US dollars compared to India is the seventh largest country in the world, with the per capita income of Azad Kashmir ( Pakistan a total area of 3,287,263 square kilometres (1,269,219 occupied Kashmir) which was recorded as 1512 US sq. miles) divided into 29 states and 7 union territories. dollars while for Pakistan it was 1,434.7 US dollars The total area under Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied in the same year. Kashmir) is 13,297 square kilometres (5,134 sq. Miles). Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) Education is divided into three divisions (Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Literacy and education level attained in a society Poonch) which are further divided into ten districts. reflect its economic as well as social development. These districts include Mirpur, Kotli, Bhimber, The literacy rate as defined by the Census of India Muzaffarabad, Jhelum valley, Neelam, Poonch,Haveli, 1991, is the total percentage of the population of an Bagh and Sudhanoti.Gilgit-Baltistan covers an area area at a particular time aged seven years or above of over 72,971 square kilometers (28,174 sq miles) who can read and write with understanding. Literacy and is highly mountainous. In 2015, the estimated rate for India has increased from 18.33% in 1951 to population of the area was 1,800,000. 74.04% in 2011. The literacy rate in India administered Jammu and Kashmir was recorded as 68.74% in the Population Census of 2011.This shows the tremendous socio- Population of an area can be an asset or a liability for economic growth in India despite a high increase in the area depending upon the quality of population and its population and other hindrances in its development development of other basic facilities and its distribution process. amongst the population. Human resource is one of the most important resource which helps in the On the other hand, Education has been a development of an area. India is a vast country with priority of the Govt. of the state of Azad Jammu & second highest population in the world after China, Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) as about 30% though it is projected to surpass China by 2022 and of its total recurring budget, besides, 7% of the total

116 World Focus July 2017 development budget is allocated to this sector. As a Development Department, Azad Govt. of the State result of this substantial investment, literacy rate is of Jammu and Kashmir,( Pakistan occupied Kashmir) has increased over the years, from 62% in 20014 to in 2015,the area under cultivation is around 1,940,82 77% in 2015, which was apparently higher than in hectares, which accounts for 13% of the total any other region in Pakistan (60%). The gross Geographical area. Out of this area, 92% of the enrolment rate at primary level among boys was cultivable area is rain-fed. About 87% households 115% while for girls it was 105% in 2015. The gross have very small land holdings which ranges between enrolment rate at primary level in India administered one to two acres. The major crops are Maize, Wheat Jammu and Kashmir was 119.44% in 2015. The gross & Rice whereas minor crops are Grams, Pulses (Red enrolment rate for boys was 98.9% and for girls Kidney Beans), Vegetables and Oil-seeds. Major 101.4% in 2014-15 in India. fruits produced in Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) are Apple, Pears, Apricot and Walnuts. According to the Ministry of Human Agriculture and livestock income ranges between 30- Resource Development, Government of India, for 40% of household earnings. Higher Education, there were 43 Central universities, 316 State Public universities,122 Deemed universities, Industry 181 State Private universities,1 Central Open In 1947, after India achieved independence from university and 13 State Open universities till 2015 in Britain, the industrial base was weak and under India. In Pakistan occupied Kashmir (Pok) or Azad developed. Development of the industrial sector was Kashmir, Mirpur University of Science and thus crucial for India’s overall growth and Technology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, development. Hence, with the introduction of 2nd five Al-Khair University, University of Poonch, Women year plan, which was based on Mahalanobis Model, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, University this sector was accorded the top priority. Since then of Management Sciences and Information Technology the industrial sector has seen tremendous growth in are among a few universities which are recognised India. Iron and steel industry was the most important by Higher Education Commission of Pakistan. industry which received top priority. Jute industry is one of the oldest in the country. Agriculture Historically, the economy of both, India and Pakistan India is the largest producer of jute products occupied Kashmir (POK) have been predominantly in the world. Cotton and Synthetic textile industries, agricultural economies. In India, agriculture still food processing industry, sugar industry, cement continues to be the most important source of industry, petrochemical industry, fertilizer industry, etc. employment. The agriculture and allied sector are have been established in India. So far, the Indian one of the largest contributors to the Gross Domestic Government has formulated five industrial policies Product (GDP) of India. They continue to be pivotal (Industrial Policy 1948,1956,1977,1980 and 1991) to to the sustainable growth and development of the develop the industrial sector. New Economic Policy Indian economy. India is the largest producer, of 1991 which was based on Liberalisation, consumer and exporter of spices and spice products. Privatisation and Globalisation has helped India in India is the largest producer of milk and dairy achieving high industrial growth. Make in India products, mangoes, coconuts, bananas, pulses, campaign aims at boosting up the manufacturing sector turmeric, ginger, black pepper and cashew nuts. and taking India on a sustainable growth path. India’s fruit production has grown faster than vegetables, making it the second largest fruit producer The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in the world. (MSMEs) have also contributed significantly in the growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The agricultural sector covers around 43% and have also generated employment opportunities of India’s total geographical area. About 58% of the for the people. The small scale sector accounts for rural households depend on agriculture for their over 80% of the manufacturing sector’s employment livelihood. According to the report of Planning and

Contrasting Development: 117 A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) level. It contributes around 39% of the total industrial 5%. The unemployment rate among females was production. significantly higher than their male counterparts. In India administered state of Jammu and Kashmir, the The Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied unemployment rate was 7.2%. Kashmir) Government had adopted the Industrial policy of Federal Govt. according to which all types The unemployment rate for Azad Kashmir of industries were allowed to be established in the (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) was 14.4% in 2015, as territory of Azad Kashmir except arms & per the data of Planning and Development ammunition, security printing, explosive material and Department, Azad Govt. of the State of Jammu and radioactive material. A total of 6 industrial estates Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). The have been set up in various districts of Azad Kashmir unemployment rate in Pakistan in 2015 was 6%. (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) in order to increase the pace of growth and development in the region. They Health have been provided with the basic infrastructure like Health services have improved in India which is roads, electricity, water supply and sewerage system. reflected by various indicators including life A total number of 1970 medium and large scale expectancy, infant mortality rate, etc. According to industries have already been established in the region. World Health Organisation (WHO), life expectancy Industries established in Azad Kashmir (Pakistan which refers to the average life of the people of the occupied Kashmir) include wood and furniture, tyre country, is 67 years for males and 70 years for females and rubber factory, textile mills, steel works, plastic in 2015. Although there has been improvement in life industries, etc. There is huge potential for Industries expectancy since independence, India is still behind like Food, Hydro power generation equipments, many countries like USA, Canada, Australia, Sweden, readymade garments, furniture and plastic products etc. which have high life expectancy. According to in the area. the data published by Ministry of Health and Family welfare, Department of AYUSH, total number of The traditional handicraft industry of Kashmir hospitals under AYUSH system in 2013 were 3167 also has huge potential for growth and development. with a total of 57,056 hospital beds. In 1992, an official body, Azad Kashmir Small Industries Corporation (AKSIC) was established to The health facilities available in Pakistan promote the development of handicrafts in the region. occupied Kashmir (POK) are still considered Azad Kashmir (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) is god inadequate in comparison to the requirements of the gifted in terms of resources and hence the people. . At the time of independence, only 30 hospital development of handicrafts industry is of huge beds and 11 dispensaries were available in the area. importance for this region. In 2015, approximately 3855 hospital beds were available in the area averaging one bed per 1158 Unemployment people.The total number of Doctors, including Unemployment is a phenomenon that occurs when a administrative doctors, health managers and dentists person who is actively searching for employment is were 1078 out of which there are 57 health unable to find work at current wage rate. managers,76 dental surgeons and 826 medical Unemployment is measured using the the officers/specialists, giving an average 0.18 per 1000 unemployment rate, which is the number of population in respect of medical officers/specialists, unemployed people divided by the total labour force. 0.017 per 1000 Population in respect of dentists and Unemployment rate reflects the economic health of 0.012 per 1000 population, in respect of health the nation and is thus an important indicator of Managers. Primary health services are available to development. In a growing economy, the level of 57% of the population. This data shows that since employment and unemployment both become independence, there has been development in the important. According to the data of Ministry of Labour health sector but it still lacks the level which is required and Employment, Government of India, the to fulfil the basic requirements of the people of the unemployment rate at all India level in 2015-16 was area.

118 World Focus July 2017 Foreign Assistance in India and Pakistan total project cost of US $ 250 million. The closing occupied Kashmir (PoK) date is June 30, 2023. After independence, both India and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) were underdeveloped areas suffering National Hydrology Project from huge capital shortage which was needed to This is an active project which aims to improve the develop their respective areas. The level of income extent, quality and accessibility of water resources as well as level of capital accumulation was low. information and also to strengthen the capacity of Foreign assistance and aid was thus needed to bridge targeted water resources management institutions in this gap. The World Bank, International Monetary India. The project was approved on March 15, 2017 Fund (IMF), Asian Development Bank are among with the commitment amount of US $ 175 million out the various international organisations which have of the total project cost of US $ 350 million. The provided funds to the under developed regions to help closing date is March 31, 2025. them in their development process. Additional Financing for Second Elementary Foreign capital inflow to the country can be Education Project either in the form of concessional assistance or non- This project was approved on March 18, 2010 with concessional assistance. Concessional assistance the commitment amount of US $ 750 million out of includes the grants and loans which can be obtained the total project cost of US $ 8400 million. There are for long term duration at very low rate of interest. various other projects which are assisted by World Non-concessional assistance includes External Bank Group in India. Some of these include Commercial borrowings (ECBs), Non Resident Indian Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate (NRI) deposits, loans on market terms and foreign Change, India Development Marketplace 2014, Skills investment. Foreign investment is generally in the form Strengthening for Industrial Value Enhancement of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) or Foreign Operation, North Eastern Region Power System Institutional Investment (FII) which shows private Improvement Project, Technical Education Quality foreign participation in different sectors of the Improvement Project III, Tejaswini: Socioeconomic economy. India has received assistance from all the Empowerment of Adolescent Girls & Young major organisations including the World Bank, Women,etc. International Monetary Fund (IMF), etc. India joined the International Monetary Fund The World Bank Group’s Partnership (IMF) on December 27, 1945 as one of its original Strategy for India (2013-2017) will help India in laying members. India has not been a frequent user of IMF the foundations of sustainable and inclusive growth funding but the assistance from IMF has been in the country. The World Bank Group will assist India instrumental in helping India in solving its Balance of through an integrated package which includes Payment (BOP) on two occasions (1981-82 and 1991- financing, advisory services and knowledge. During 93). In recent years, the IMF has provided technical the World Bank financial year (July 2013-June 2014), assistance to India in a number of areas which include funding assigned for India was $5.2 billion ($2.0 billion the development of the government securities market, in International Bank for Reconstruction and foreign exchange market reform, public expenditure Development (IBRD), $3.1 billion in International management, tax and customs administration, and Development Association and $0.1 billion in CTF or strengthening statistical systems in connection with Clean Technology Fund) across 16 projects. Some the Special Data Dissemination Standards. of the ongoing projects include: Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also Innovate in India for Inclusiveness assisted India in various projects. These include India: This is an active project which was approved by the Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program - World Bank Group on May 31, 2017 with the Tranche 1, Solar Transmission Sector Project, commitment amount of US$ 125 million out of the Strengthening Climate Change Resilience in Urban India - Supporting Climate Change-Resilient Smart

Contrasting Development: 119 A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) Cities Mission Projects (Subproject 2), Madhya Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD) was Pradesh Skills Development Project, Expanding formed. DFATD had assisted the area of Azad Jammu Micro and SME Lending in Semi-Urban and Rural and Kashmir with the total budget of CDN $ 20 million. Areas Project, Low-Cost Affordable Housing Finance, etc. Germany Pakistan was one of Germany’s first partner countries Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) has in the development cooperation. Individual measures received foreign assistance and aid from various are also carried out by Germany in Pakistan occupied international organisations as well as individual Kashmir (POK) areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir countries. Some of them are mentioned below: and Gilgit-Baltistan. The areas of cooperation between Germany and Pakistan include Governance, Energy, Asian Development Bank Education and Health. Azad Jammu and Kashmir, commonly known as Azad Kashmir forms a major part of Pakistan occupied In recent years, the Diamer-Bhasha Dam Kashmir (POK) along with the region of Gilgit- Project with the budget of US $ 14 billion has become Baltistan. The area of Azad Kashmir received a major prestige project for Pakistan in the Giligit- assistance of US$ 57.00 million from Asian Baltistan area of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Development Bank (ADB) under the Project “Multi This project was conceived in 2009-10 and since then, Sector Rehabilitation Project for Azad Jammu and India has been continuously protesting against Kashmir. The agenda was inclusive economic growth Pakistan. In 2014, The World Bank had refused to of this region. This project provided funds for be the co-financer for this project after India’s refusal development in various sectors including Education, to give No Objection Certificate (NOC) to Pakistan Health, Transport, etc. for this Hydel Power Project. As a major setback to Pakistan, in 2016, The Asian Development Bank US Agency for International Development (ADB) denied funds to Pakistan for this project. (USAID) US Agency for International Development (USAID) India has been constantly opposing to funding aims at ending extreme poverty and promoting the of any project for the development of infrastructure development of resilient, democratic societies. They in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) comprising the provide funds to countries to help them realise their areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit- potential. USAID had assisted in the development of Baltistan. India has argued that Pakistan occupied the area of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) with Kashmir (PoK) is the territory of India which was the total amount of US $ 3,827.30.USAID programs illegally occupied by Pakistan. The decision of ADB are implemented in the areas of Pakistan, with major may strengthen India’s case against multilateral as focus on under-represented geographic areas which well as bilateral funding of Infrastructure Projects in include Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit- Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Baltistan. Conclusion Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and The relationship between the South Asian neighbouring Development (DFATD), Canada countries of India and Pakistan since independence Canada’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan focuses and partition in 1947 has been hostile over the State on Education, women empowerment, improved of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan calls the Indian governance among other focus areas. Canada works government administered State of Jammu and in all geographical areas of Pakistan as well as Kashmir as “India occupied Kashmir” whereas India Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK). In June 2013, calls the Pakistan administered State of Jammu and the Canadian International Development Agency Kashmir as “Pakistan occupied Kashmir”. Almost (CIDA) and the Department of Foreign Affairs and 70 years have passed since independence but this International Trade (DFAIT) were merged together issue still remains unresolved. Even in the near future, and a new organisation named Department of Foreign

120 World Focus July 2017 there seems to be no hope for this issue getting Knight, Edward Frederick, Where Three Empires Meet: A resolved. Narrative of Recent Travel in Kashmir, Western Tibet, Gilgit Paperback 2010. Amidst all the bloodshed and tension, both the areas of Jammu and Kashmir (one with India Knight, Edward, Frederick & Shafto Adair, The Big Game and the other with Pakistan), which are blessed with of Baltistan and Ladakh: A Summer in High Asia, Being natural beauty and resources, have shown signs of a Record of Sport and Travel Paperback 2008. development in almost all sectors including agriculture, Muhammad, Ghulam, Festivals and Folklore of Gilgit industry, health, etc. Tourism Industry has provided Paperback 2010. livelihood to many households in both the regions Shekhawat Seema & Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, despite continuous cross border terrorism and a gruesome history. Kashmir Across LoC, Gyan Publication, 2008. Singh, Jasjit, Pakistan occupied Kashmir: Under the Terrorist activities in the state of Jammu and Jackboot, Cosmo Publications, New Delhi, 1995. Kashmir have increased over the years which has Yusuf, Moeed, Exploring the Potential for Economic proved to be a major hindrance in the growth process. Development and Cross LoC Collaboration in Jammu It has huge devastating impact on the infrastructure Kashmir, Pugwash, Issue Brief, Volume 5, Number 1, July of the area, besides disturbing the normal way of life in the region. India has always claimed that Pakistan 2007. has continuously supported and carried out terrorist http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/ activities in the State of Jammu and Kashmir by data_files/india/Rural_Urban_2011.pdf funding terrorist groups and providing them training http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/ and resources. On the other hand, Pakistan has denied data_files/india/Rural_Urban_2011.pdf all these allegations and in turn has blamed India for http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4fba0d042.pdf cross border terrorism. The blame game between the neighbouring nations of India and Pakistan has http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST continued for decades and disturbed the normal way http://www.pndajk.gov.pk/socioeconomicindicators.php of life in the state of Jammu and Kashmir including http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/PDF/ Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Had there been State_of_Indian_Agriculture,2015-16.pdf no partition of India in 1947, the economic situation http://labourbureaunew.gov.in/UserContent/ of the State of Jammu and Kashmir would have EUS_5th_1.pdf entirely remained. The breath taking beauty of Kashmir valley, the other areas of Jammu and http://www.who.int/countries/ind/en/ Kashmir and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) is http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and- no less than paradise on earth which has lost its shine nation/adb-declines-to-fund-pakistans-big-dam-project- due to continuous conflict between India and Pakistan. in-pok/articleshow/55092372.cms http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/projects References https://www.imf.org/external/country/ind/rr/glance.htm Behera, Navneeta Chaddha, Demystifying Kashmir, http://mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?19004/ Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 2006. Clarifications+on+LoC Dewan, Pervez, A , Manas, 2006. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/kashmir-an- George, Algernon & Arnold Durand, The Making of a unfinished-agenda-of-partition-raheel-sharif-4482441/ Frontier: Five Years’ Experiences and Adventures in http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/radcliffe-line- Gilgit, Hunza, Nagar, Chitral Paperback 2010. has-a-colour-green/article7536204.ece Gupta, Sisir, Kashmir: A Study in Indo Pak Relations, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/india-raises- Bombay, Asia Publisher, 1966. the-stakes-in-row-over-kashmir-1383849.html Gupta, Virendra & Alok Bansal, Pakistan occupied Kashmir: The Untold Story Manas New Delhi 2007. Contrasting Development: 121 A Study of Economic Realities of India and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) The China led One Belt One Road in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications for India Manisha Chaurasiya

The strategic scenario for India in the region is McMahon line in various sectors has been taken by altering like never before with the One Belt One Line of Control (LoC) and Line of Actual Control Road (OBOR) project running through Pakistan (LAC) respectively by Pakistan and China. The occupied Kashmir (PoK) in form of China overall Kashmir region on ground possession of India Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Without has been reduced drastically. India has remained a India even geographically moving an inch in the recipient of unsubstantiated claims on its territories Kashmir region, the circumstances of geo-politics in Kashmir, illegal occupation of some strategic border around it have seriously modified in the negative. areas, use of sub-conventional tactics like infiltration These developments for a number of reasons are and cross border terrorism against it and conventional alarming as they are against the Indian strategic clashes, uninvited wars and cease fire violations on and core interests. The recently carved out One the LoC as part of the opportunist moves by Pakistan. Belt One Road, also known as Belt and Road China on the other side has proved itself instrumental initiative by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in these years by illegal transfers of nuclear arsenal, has received much expected hype globally. On both technology and delivery mechanism to Pakistan paper the plan spans across three continents of to further its quest for nuclear bomb. Adding to that Asia, Africa and Europe, enveloping China has been also involved in an infamous barter approximately some 65 countries. From an Indian of strategic territories in Kashmir which has made position there lies a serious inherent challenge security situation at the Siachen Glacier even worse inside the OBOR as its CPEC leg passes through for India. In such a pessimistic historical backdrop Pakistan occupied territories. This has happened the recently introduced OBOR initiative of China without any prior consultation, permission and proves the Indian worst fears true. The CPEC leg of negotiation involving India. India restrained from the OBOR has once again not just brought Pakistan joining the initiative’s forum meet last month. and China in close proximity in Kashmir but also is a Although, the proximity between China and case of sheer violation of the Indian territorial Pakistan in Indian neighbourhood is nothing new sovereignty in PoK. The implications of the OBOR’s yet the presence of the initiative, its growing scope CPEC leg in PoK would be long lasting and negative and pace in PoK is alarming to India and indeed for India due to a number of reasons. Firstly, the contrary to the Indian interests. The paper possible uses of CPEC remains yet unknown and after explores the implications of (a) China-Pakistan the lesson from the Chinese in Djibouti there are high axis in PoK and (b) the CPEC leg of the OBOR, chances that China would use Pakistan and PoK for on various national security and national interest military uses. Secondly, this would led to not decrease factors of India. but an increase in terrorism and anti-India operations by non-states, thirdly, the Pakistani Defence forces Introduction and establishment would get a renewed vigour with The conflict in Kashmir has been on-going since last the support of China to attempt to counter India 70 years. These years witnessed several changes in conventionally. Fourthly, the result of a third party in the de jure demarcations between India, Pakistan PoK would be overall negative for the security and China in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. There situation of South Asia. Like other small countries in have been alterations leading to various kinds of de the region, Pakistan too is getting inside the debt trap facto boundary of Pakistan and China with India. In of China. These are enormous amounts of all these years the geo-politics has altered in the infrastructural loans taken from China which are negative for India as the place of the Radcliffe and beyond easy and early repayment. 122 World Focus July 2017 The Indian situation at Kashmir, given the states’ out of the United Nations Security Council increased complexities of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (UNSC)2. However, due to a number of political and time and again proves one of the ancient realist technical factors the UNSC was not able to provide theories of Kautilya true and applicable. Both China justice in this matter and the case remains hanging in and Pakistan coming together presently through the mid-air since resulting into a Pakistan’s illegal infrastructure building and connectivity enhancement occupation on major parts of the state of Jammu and project OBOR can be equated to two Ari (enemy) Kashmir. of Vijigishu (king/oneself) coming closer. This was warned by Kautilya, as leading to negative strategic Indian sovereignty is at stake when CPEC consequences for the mighty king in the near future. passes through its territories in Kashmir without any The China-Pakistan axis in the PoK has become consultation and permission taken by China and stronger over time and is rapidly materializing Pakistan from India. These are the same territories infrastructure and strategic capabilities that could which were captured by Pakistan and due to a UN undermine India in the long run. The paper explores mandated cease fire 70 years ago has been retained the implications both long and short term of such a by its army. The de jure international border has development. At such a juncture India faces a given way to a de facto Line of Control in Kashmir. challenging task to counter these pressures and also In close coordination with China, Pakistan has illegally devise a strategy which is not simply defensive in claimed these territories as purely under its sovereign nature but goes beyond it in the realm of strengthening jurisdiction and started with infrastructure projects in oneself and prevent such alarming developments. it. Apart from the illegality aspect of the CPEC there are heavy strategic and military interests of both Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: What is at Stake? Pakistan and China against India, veiled with the Kashmir is a part of India. This dates back to not just economic and infrastructure development. the British partition of the Indian subcontinent but the Vedic times. The civilizational attributes and Pakistan Self-defeating its Position designated boundaries were largely discounted when Internationally on Kashmir the very year of the creation of Pakistan it invaded The position of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue has Kashmir. The British delineation of India and Pakistan been internationally weakened by its nod to the CPEC. did not marked Kashmir in Pakistan. As a princely On one side it has stick to 70 years old demands in state, thus free to decide its future, it decided to enter the Kashmir land dispute. It has largely claimed into instrument of accession with the Union of India territories and claimed historical injustice. But on the on 26 October, 1947. Four days before the accession, other side, motivated by economic gains its enthusiastic Pakistan tried its luck and invaded the province of deals with China in the disputed land suggests its Kashmir. The tribal lashkars who were at fore front eagerness to decide the matter unilaterally instead of were supported actively by the Pakistani government bilaterally or multilaterally in Kashmir. It has long stick and capabilities and arsenal of the army. to a position where it has been for multilateral answer Geographically the ‘Pakistan occupied Kashmir to the bilateral dispute of Kashmir. It also reinforces (PoK) consists of the so called ‘Azad Jammu and the belief that nothing for Pakistan now remains Kashmir (AJK)’ and ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’ (referred to contested in Kashmir as it has claimed the right to as the ‘Northern Areas’ till August 2009). PoK is rent, bartered or sell the occupied territories to a third part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and party as it was under its sovereign jurisdiction. hence an integral part of India’1. These areas have been under the illegitimate control of Pakistan since. Calling the Pakistani Bluff on Independent At that time India did succeeded in repulsing the Kashmir or ‘Azad Kashmir’ invaders from the valley with great valour of the Indian China on the other side has formally acknowledged defence forces but the matter was referred to the the Pakistan led story in Kashmir. They have United Nations (UN) by India. India was hopeful of recognized PoK, which Pakistan has had terms as a ‘fair and legitimate solution to put an end to external ‘Azad Kashmir’ as an integral part of sovereignty of aggression and armed confrontation between the two Pakistan. The future remains uncertain as not many

The China led One Belt One Road in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications for India 123 countries in the world and multilateral forums are One of a pressing challenge India has faced ready to alter their position on Kashmir. This particular in the recent is the attempts of Pakistan to get greater informal merger of PoK with Pakistan in most maps involved in the PoK and to portray it as a part of and demarcations also prove Pakistani position Pakistan undoubtedly one of the most pressing hypocritical as it has had claimed that it recognizes challenge the country is facing in the contemporary the sovereignty of the PoK as a separate entity or as times. The CPEC emerges as hallmark of this attempt independent Kashmir. On the contrary of recognizing which passes through the heart of the Indian interests the decision making on the future of these territories in Kashmir. The Chinese strategic interests are in has largely been taken by the government sitting in guise of an economic initiative. Islamabad with no consultation from the locals and sometimes tribal populations therein. A mockery of Future Implications of OBOR in PoK for India the term ‘Azad Kashmir’ has been made in the hands 1.Military Uses of PoK of Pakistan when it compromised the sovereignty of Ambiguity has long remained a key word that this entity to a third actor, China. From the beginning encompasses the Chinese strategic moves. Regarding ‘the administration of Azad Jammu and Kashmir was the Belt and Road or the OBOR initiative too China nominally under an elected government while the real has been least vocal in sharing with the world the power rested with the government of Pakistan’3. future course of action and also the details of the proposed project. Apart from the controversies on The OBOR, CPEC and Kashmir legality of the CPEC there is a great deal of scepticism The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative on paper on the probable uses of the corridor by China. This passes through around 65 countries, although the uncertainty is largely shared equally among all future holds some necessary alterations in the ‘partner’ countries of the China led OBOR. In the Chinese drawn belts and roads over three continents deal involving PoK too there remains a large veil on on the basis of the sovereign governments, territories its ambitions and the future course of action and and their decision making. India has not been a part utilization of the corridor. C. Raja Mohan believes of the OBOR forum meet due to its infringement on that the unanswered question- ‘whether these projects the Indian sovereignty in Kashmir. The China-Pakistan are purely civilian, or have strategic and security Economic Corridor is a major sub section of the mega implications, further complicates the situation’5. The project which connects China’s Kashgar with political memory and repercussions of the infamous Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. The barter of strategic territories or the 1963 agreement CPEC is a combination of highway network, railway in the Kashmir region between Pakistan and China network and fibre optic project enveloping the whole are still fresh. India remains equally clueless regarding country plus the territories of India in the North the possible uses of the CPEC as it was from the Kashmir. From a legal as well as strategic perspective, Karakoram highway. China’s display of a high degree the CPEC leg of the OBOR is especially problematic of unilateralism and disinterest in negotiating any such for the Indian interests as well as for Pakistani project in the PoK with India worsens the situation sovereignty in future. China Pakistan Economic for India. According to Jayadeva Ranade, the CPEC Corridor is thus emerging as a controversial is that part of OBOR which ‘combines financial development. The project is a Pakistan-China bilateral assistance with diplomatic support reinforced by which passes through areas of Pakistan occupied military muscle’6. In a recent report the United States Kashmir (PoK) which belongs to India. Territorial Department of Defense, Pentagon stated that China sovereignty is a sensitive issue altogether for any is likely to establish additional military bases in state. China has been seen defending its territorial Pakistan and other countries with which it has sovereignty and strategic interest in South China Sea longstanding friendly ties and similar strategic and elsewhere. The Indian stakes in Kashmir are interests7. On the above definition, no other country historical and real. The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ has fits as Pakistan does for China, where both share come in contrast with the ‘core’ strategic objectives ‘similar strategic interests’ viz a viz India in South of India4. Asia. Srikanth Kondapalli adds that in order to secure the Chinese infrastructure projects it has actively

124 World Focus July 2017 deployed its “security personnel” into Pakistan and Pakistan has led to it coming forward with a economic also the Pakistan occupied territories of Kashmir8. corridor from the region.

Siegfried O. Wolf argues that, China has 2.Increase in Terrorism and Anti-India identified strategic and economic benefits of Operations by Non-States cooperation with Pakistan but they are at a risk Apart from the enhanced Chinese presence, PoK perceptions. ‘Since the start of the CPEC planning has long been a hub of Islamic radicalization and anti- and related first engagements in infrastructure and India elements. The region has increasingly been under energy sectors, Pakistan witnesses’ severe debates, the influence of the jihadi ideology13 The ISIS, Afghan critics and protests with crucial impacts on domestic Taliban and a number of registered international terror political dynamics’9, these were a result of the widely networks have found safe haven in Pakistan. China expected healthy chances of direct China influence has been an active and vocal advocate of countering in the daily chores of Pakistan and its future international terrorism. Through several multilateral sovereignty. The military uses of the Gwadar Port forums like the United Nations (UN) and Shanghai have also been under the scanner as developed with Cooperation Organization (SCO) it has raised the issue the Chinese money. The trade and commercial uses globally but the presence of the Chinese in no way is of this strategically located port on the Arabian Sea expected to discourage these terror elements in the are less likely than it being utilized as a military base PoK. To be precise China while concentrating on its by China in the near future. ‘What leads credence to economic and strategic objectives has never paid the doubts about China’s military build-up in the region attention to or criticised the terror funding and the is the construction of a Chinese military base in international terror networks in which its new Djibouti’. China claims that this ‘facility is designed ‘partner’ state Pakistan is neck deep and has faced to help the navy and army further participate in UN international condemnation a number of times. After peacekeeping operations, carry out escort missions China’s well rooted presence in Pakistan occupied in the waters near Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, and Kashmir these groups would be strengthened instead provide humanitarian assistance’10. China of weakened due to China’s deliberate overlook and distinguishes between a military base and a military strategy of avoidance at their activities contributing supply base. It calls Djibouti a latter but the overall to not just anti-India terrorist activities but also them strategic scenario hints towards the military uses of furthering international terrorism. Pakistan by China soon. 3. Renewed Vigour of Pakistani Defence Forces A report titled, ‘Kashmir: Present Situation against India and Future Prospects’ by Baroness Emma Nicholson This would not be the first time that the Pakistani in 2007 hinted towards early Chinese presence in defence forces would get comfort and support from PoK. The report was adopted by the their Chinese counterparts. But certainly, the active acquaints to some realities of the state and society in presence of the Chinese alongside them in PoK in the PoK which has largely remain untouched by the guise of economic mega project’s security would outside world for past almost 70 years. According to work in the negative for India. In the time to come the report, in PoK ‘the local administration is the Pakistan would gain more confidence on its dysfunctional and the Pakistani state and military have capabilities, thus more likely to commit adventurism total control over the region...the so called ‘AJK’ is and cease fire violations on the LoC and border not a sovereign entity and its prime minister and against India. Pakistan has described its friendship president have to owe allegiance to the federal with China as, ‘higher than the mountains, deeper government of Pakistan to survive in office’11, the than the oceans, sweeter than honey’14. According report also highlights that the Trans Karakoram Tract, to Siegfried O Woolf, the ‘CPEC based, new and formerly a part of the princely state of Jammu and far-reaching social, economic trajectories and Kashmir was under the Chinese control’12. Almost a determinants for decision making in Pakistan will not decade of Chinese direct and indirect involvement in bring out a fundamental change in the reactionary die-hard, security-dominated mindset of the country’s

The China led One Belt One Road in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications for India 125 leadership featured by repressive domestic politics trap. Historically, debt crisis or the debt trap being and state-sponsorship of cross-border terrorism’15. one that brings and harbours worst forms of He adds that on the contrary the CPEC project in the dependencies between the borrower and the lender. long-run will have serious consequences for domestic These are some of the implications of the OBOR security, stability, and national harmony, as well as and its CPEC leg on India. Many geo-strategic constructive relations and cooperation with Pakistan’s realities around India are altering at a rapid pace. neighbors16. Instead of getting greater involved in The Chinese rise is evident and its intensions are underdeveloped country’s growth the Pakistani largely under wraps. However, the Chinese official defence forces are communicating signals of their position shared by most and Chinese academicians renewed interest in countering India. The instances stress on the OBOR having solely economic of ceasefire violations have dramatically increased objectives. However, the implementation of OBOR in the recent months. May, 2017 witnessed heavy especially in disputed and highly disturbed territories shelling along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir. The like the PoK would not be without repercussions. Pakistani Army violated ceasefire in Balakote sector and Nowshera sector targeting forward posts Conclusion and civilian areas along the LoC17. The mega infrastructure and development project in Pakistan occupied Kashmir without keeping India in 4.Deteriorating Overall Security Situation of negotiations and decision making is illegal. Adding to South Asia that the high level of dependency and freebees for it China is gaining a strong foothold in Pakistan and coming from China, a third party apart from the PoK through pouring in heavy economic assistance. disputants India and Pakistan hints towards vested This leads to Pakistan entering into a debt trap from interest of this party. The geographical location of which it is hard for it to come out in the near future. Pakistan has remained geostrategic for the US during Repaying these loans would be nearly impossible for the Cold War and the PRC for its OBOR ambitions. Pakistan leading to a debt crisis. The debt crisis could At such a juncture the OBOR in PoK is one of the lead to China suggesting a formula to Pakistan which greatest challenges India and the South Asian region it did to Sri Lanka recently. In a similar unequal is facing in the contemporary times. The implications relationship between China and Sri Lanka, when the of it, as discussed above are all negative from a former faced incapability in repayment of loans, the strategic perspective for India. latter floated the idea of selling away of Sri Lankan territory to it in order to wave off its loan. Similar to Endnotes the situation of Sri Lanka, a small island country that 1Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, IDSA has borrowed billions of dollars from China which in (2011),”Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: The Changing the present has attempted impinging on its sovereignty, Discourse”, IDSA PoK Project Report, accessed on 9 is the future of Pakistan. The overall security situation June, 2017, available at: http://www.idsa.in/system/ of South Asia is under threat and the future looks files/book/book_PakistanOccupiedKashmir.pdf 2 bleak. The history of the Cold War suggests that Ibid 3 Pakistan is indeed located at a strategic geo-political Ibid 4Mohan, C. Raja (2017), “How do China and India space. Sale and purchase of its territories to any ‘new’ Manage Ties for the Good of South Asian Security?”, actor welcomes uncertainties not just for India but 2 April, 2017, accessed on 27 May, 2017, available at: for other South Asian countries around it like, http://carnegieindia.org/2017/04/02/how-do-china-and- Afghanistan. The stability in the West Asian region india-manage-ties-for-good-of-south-asian-security- has remained contested since the previous century. pub-68618 Afghanistan has witnessed the Soviet invasion, the 5Ibid great power politics of the United States and Soviet 6 Ranade, Jayadeva (2017), “China anxious for India Union, the emergence of worst forms of non states to endorse the OBOR initiative”, the Hindustan Times, and authoritarianism from the Taliban etc. At such a 14 May, 2017. Accessed on 27 May, 2017, available juncture for the security and stability of the region it at: http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/china- is prerequisite that the states do not fall into another anxious-for-india-to-endorse-the-obor-initiative/story- Z3llATMtkugukl48mcUbdI.html 126 World Focus July 2017 7 Zee News, “After CPEC, China likely to build military 10Zee News, 2017. base in Pakistan: Pentagon“, accessed on 9 June,2017, 11IDSA, 2011. available at: http://zeenews.india.com/asia/after-cpec- 12Ibid. china-likely-to-build-military-base-in-pakistan- 13Ibid pentagon-2012751.html 14Subramanian, Nirupama (2017), “ A Short History of 8Kondapalli, Srikanth (2017), “Why India is Not Part the Relationship: China-Pakistan, Bhai-Bhai”, accessed of the Belt and Road Initiative summit”, accessed on on 27 May, 2017, available at: http://indianexpress.com/ 16th May, 2017, available at: http://indianexpress.com/ article/explained/a-short-history-of-the-relationship- article/opinion/why-india-is-not-part-of-the-belt-and- china-pakistan-bhai-bhai-belt-and-road-initiative- road-initiative-summit-4656150/9Woolf, Siegfried O. 4668864/ (2017), “OPINION- An Unequal Equation? CPEC 15Woolf, 2017 Development and Pakistan’s Political Mindset”, 16 Ibid accessed on 9 June, 2017, available at: http:// 17Times of India (2017), “Pakistan Violates Ceasefire www.ssoar.info/ssoar/bitstream/handle/document/ in J&K’s Balakote Sector“, accessed on 27 May, 2017, 48611/ssoar-indrastraglobal-2016-9-wolf- available at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ An_unequal_equation_CPEC_development.pdf? pakistan-violates-ceasefire-in-jks-balakote-sector/ sequence=1 articleshow/58710654.cms

PoK will soon be part of India: Yogi Adityanath By: PTI | Ballia (up) | Published:August 19, 2016 3:04 pm

The BJP lawmaker from Gorakhpur, who was in Ballia to attend a function in Rasra area, said Thursday night that India should take a stand on the issue of Balochistan. Lashing out at Pakistan, BJP MP Yogi Adityanath has said if the neighbouring country dares to fight with India, its existence would be in danger and that Pak-occupied Kashmir (PoK) would soon be a part of India. The BJP lawmaker from Gorakhpur, who was in Ballia to attend a function in Rasra area, said Thursday night that India should take a stand on the issue of Balochistan. On senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh’s comments referring to Kashmir as “India-occupied Kashmir”, Yogi said Singh’s reaction reflected the values of his party. Holding the Congress responsible for Kashmir problem, he said if Sardar Patel would have got the responsibility in place of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, the issue would have not arisen. He said time has come for freedom of PoK and it would be part of India soon. On Mumbai attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed’s appeal to Pakistan Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif, to send troops to Kashmir to “obey” the pending order of M A Jinnah, Yogi said the neighbouring country has suffered four crushing defeats.

Addressing a rally held under the banner of ‘Defence Council of Pakistan’ in Karachi on Sunday, Saeed had claimed, “Kashmiris had announced before the partition that they wanted to remain with Pakistan. But after the partition, India forcibly sent Army to Jammu and Kashmir. “On this, Quaid-e- Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah ordered his commander-in-chief to respond by sending troops but he refused (to obey his orders). Now, I ask Gen Raheel Sharif to send troops in Jammu and Kashmir as Quaid-e-Azam’s order is pending,” Saeed had said.

(Courtesy: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pok-will-soon-be-part-of-india-yogi-adityanath-pakistan-kashmir-2985227/)

The China led One Belt One Road in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: Implications for India 127 Rehabilitation Policy: A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants Arif Hussain Malik & Toseef Ahmad Bhat

Introduction designated points mainly to evade possible arrest by The state of Jammu and Kashmir was the largest of the Indian security forces and the cumbersome the 562 princely states of India, covering over 85,806 documentation process. Therefore, the Government miles or 222,236 square kilometers. Situated in the of J&K does not recognize them as beneûciaries of northernmost and north-western region of India and the rehabilitation policy. So far, two rehabilitation passing through the Karakoram and the associated policies for ex-militants have been announced by the ranges of mountains, it reaches Tibet in the east and J&K government. While the ûrst rehabilitation policy Sinkiang in the north, both provinces of China. In the (2004) is meant for the ex-militants residing in J&K, north-west, it is bound by the snow-capped mountains the second one (2010) focuses on the ex-militants in Gilgit and Hunza, coterminous with Afghanistan from Kashmir living in PoK and Pakistan who desire on the western side and almost touching the then to return to the Valley. This article will focus on the USSR territory known as Soviet Tajikstan through 2010 policy, which is meant for those who had crossed the Pamirs. In 1941, there were three provinces in the LOC for arms training between January 1989 the state of Jammu and Kashmir; The Jammu and December 2009, but had shunned violence later. province comprised the districts of Jammu, Kathua, Further, this article argues that the 2010 rehabilitation Udhampur, Mirpur, and along with the Jagirs policy has failed to attract ex-militants, and those who of Chenani and Poonch. The Kashmir province returned through other points were not entitled to the consisted of the districts of Baramula, , and benefits of the rehabilitation policy. A field study was Muzaffarabad. The frontier districts consisted of conducted by the researchers in order to understand Ladakh, Baltistan, and the Gilgit Agency. Following and get in the various issues and concerns of those the partition of India and Pakistan, and the latter’s who had returned under the banner of this policy. attempt to capture the valley, Kashmir was split into Jammu and Kashmir, a Pakistan-administered Understanding Rehabilitation Kashmir and, later, a Chinese territory, which is The conflicts worldwide are different and ambiguous mostly uninhabited. Ever since, India and Pakistan because they are based on multifarious layers. There have used the territory to exercise bitter foreign policy are conflicts between states and eventually conflicts towards each other, culminating in three wars. While do exist between state and its subjects (people). Here self-determination has always been a project in we refer to a conflict which is both between two Jammu and Kashmir, it took a rigged election in 1987 states and a state and its people. Conflicts constitute to prompt a call to arms against the Indian players who either support the declared structure or government’s rule of the region; young men ventured resist it, with rebellious apprehensions, using arms and into Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) for training in ideas. Conflicts don’t stop to exist but pertinently guerrilla warfare. Thousands of Kashmiri men undergo a change in intensity and velocity. Conflicts travelled secretively to PoK for arms training, with a all over the world were resisted using different set goal to ûght the Indian state. However, many of methods based on physical operations ranging from those who travelled to PoK soon became disillusioned direct assault to proxy warfare resulting in death of and looked at the possibilities of return. In 2010, the anti-state elements and setback to ideology which Government of Jammu and Kashmir announced a tickets them to fight. However, killings and an attempt rehabilitation policy for them. When the policy came to uproot the party of conflict or militants never helped into effect, many ex-militants (along with their PoK the state to prevent and eradicate conflicts. For wives and children) started returning home, but not instance, Sri Lankan offensive against LTTE in 2009 through the ofûcial channel, as the government would has helped in disorganization and dismantle of this have expected. The ex-militants generally avoid the 128 World Focus July 2017 group, but it has not proved effective to pull out the eve of 1990s to other part of State, internationally feelings of alienation among minorities in general and known as “Pakistan Administered Kashmir” or Tamils in particular. Same is the fate of state actions “Pakistan Occupied Kashmir”. The intension behind all over the world. Given the complex nature of the move was not to settle there but to get trained in conflicts, new techniques were experimented to the training camps for initiating a war against Indian address them in tune with the contemporary scenario. forces deployed in Jammu and Kashmir. The training Rehabilitation is the most celebrated practice in camps were embodiment of ideological and material modern vocabulary of conflicts based on ammunition run by Pakistan to start a guerilla reconciliation, accommodation and post conflict “Jung”4. Massive human flow from this part of reconstruction. Kashmir was an indicator of stern alienation of people from the Indian union and Pakistan was calculating it Rehabilitation is akin to words like their way.5The people associated with the militancy reintegration, resettlement and re-entry which share were bereft of strategy and cooperation. Due to rift, a common prefix implying return to a previous they couldn’t continue the fight under a single banner. condition.1 Literally rehabilitation means to reinstate The rift was moving towards a different end and made a human being which he/she had left behind after fighters to think on different lines. There emerged resorting to an act which he/she chooses concept of iconography and the icons were Pakistan, alternatively.2Those who choose an act contrary to Independence and universal Islamic Shariya to work normal structure of society and system are termed accordingly. After smelling the ambiguity in as rebels, deviants, reactionaries and beyond these movement, some of the young fighters began to feel come terrorists and militants. Globally, rehabilitation disillusioned and a piecemeal pause in militancy was and community engagement is a new devised seen after 1993.6 technique in the fight against extremism and its violent manifestations- terrorism and insurgency.3 Earlier State structures were very much involved in counter-insurgency and anti-militancy measures were examining the situation. The situation was disturbed revolving round shoot, kill and proxy dictums. By by militancy, internal and external stakeholders. Every killing militants and persecution of families, minds get day was marked by an occurrence with a militant over radicalized and indoctrination continues and violent outcome. Indian forces bereft of proper unabatedly. Humans have a deep feeling of being mechanism made experiments blend of warfare and relative such as being some ones son; daughter, proxy game. The state practices taken as measures mother and father so on and so forth. Indeed engraved the resentment, ironically augmented the rehabilitation has a great connectivity with de- debacle. After observing the worst results, and in order radicalization and behavioral alteration to meet the to curb militancy in a new way government moved set requirements of the niche he/she has left in forward. For the first time a policy called “Surrender persuasion of wrong path. Without fulfilling the Policy” for militants in 1995 by Govrnor V.K.Krishna qualifications for rehabilitation such as change in Rao was started, which promised them 1.5 lakh fixed offender’s heart, mind and precariously entire deposits and a monthly 2000 rupees stipend and behavior threatening the state establishment, the word separate reward to the arms handed over to army or rehabilitation doesn’t apply. Government of a state security agencies.7 Numerous militants surrendered after calling offenders for rehabilitation has to fill the under this policy devised for rehabilitation and were requirements of the move. An important support recruited as special police officers (SPO’s), or in which the government has to guarantee is that Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Border whereby an individual is allowed to enjoy the same Security Force (BSF), and mostly were given status as others are by shedding away the negative opportunities to take recourse to self- label of offender. employment.8This policy consistently attracted the chunk of fighters to get benefitted but could not Rehabilitation and Militancy mobilize their plight vertically. The administrative The war torn state of Jammu and Kashmir has illness and indirect beneficiary of conflict called as witnessed a massive migration of young breed on the top and down bureaucracy made mess of the policies

Rehabilitation Policy:A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants 129 meant for the militants. Besides not standing by the government to mainstream them. Rehabilitation of promises encrypted in the documents, security these “third class militants”14got failed because of agencies made the situation for them more difficult institutional and administrative negligence.15. The by calling them to camps, garrisons, and police policy has failed to meet all the challenges and goals stations. This act of regular visits to army cantonments it was devised in connection with. paved way to dilute the social image already dotted with colors of unacceptability on the side of society. Rehabilitation Policy 2010 The promises made by government proved as just The footprints set by the previous government (PDP- hoax.9 Congress) for options beyond violent state craft. The promotion of reconciliation, dialogue and governance The internationally recognized acronym called was seen with a lot of scope to move forward. While 9/11 pushed change in the policies of states examining the inclination of people towards the change encompassing through militancy, civil wars and in mode of thinking the NC government headed by specifically the countries which equip the combatants began to bargain on the lines inside the blood games. Progressively, pressure was transgressing his father’s legacy. New Delhi thought mounting on Pakistan for halting the support to to move beyond from buying reconciliation through militants and fighters in the battle of Kashmir against financial and other means to human understanding. Indian state. Pakistan had undergone a noticeable The internet and open access to media disseminated change in its approach towards neighboring countries information about the growing and peace generating especially India and castigated extremism as environment between the two countries. Militants something contrary to its image at international level. living in PoK and other parts of Pakistan turned lunatic General Musharraf extended his words and declared while observing the restoration of good life in Jammu that no organization will be allowed to indulge in and Kashmir. The human flow across border since terrorism in the name of Kashmir. 10 “He had assumed the road connectivity between segregated parts of that only peaceful measures will work in addressing Kashmir generated once again love of land amongst the Kashmir problem and the steps were heading the breed which was living across LOC in PoK.16 towards good end and way forward was With every passing day militants were communicating tantamount.”11 Kashmir had its election in 2002 which their families and relatives to configure grounds for symbolically challenged the decade’s long voice of their return. Pakistan government though caught in National Conference. New name with a different its own maladies didn’t hesitate in managing the return caliber was at top to deliver and having vigils eye on of willing Kashmiri settlers there. The willingness of across border equations. After gauging the mind at both nations towards a constructive reconciliation and work in Pakistan the state government came up with state governments desperate urge is worth an initiative though along the lines of its predecessor acknowledging. The government entered into a “Surrender Policy” format known as “Rehabilitation dialogue with center focusing on “Return and Policy” of 2004.12 It was for militants residing in Rehabilitation” of militants of Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir. The government of Jammu and Militants were returning from PoK before the policy Kashmir admitted that 432 militants were benefitted as well.17 But an agreed pact was concluded between under this policy and an amount of 9.59 crores was the governments in 2010. The move drew meticulous spent on surrendered militants. It includes 6.48 crore enthusiasm not only here among the families who did as fixed deposit and 3.11 crore based on 2000 per live without their wards for decades but also among month to every militant.13 While examining the status the departed and weary men in exile. The policy of the policy there comes out a filtration mode in its which national and international media has pronounced execution. The militants who had surrendered under as a guide to reconciliation was much weighty than this policy were classified as, 1) top militants having any other human endeavor and new language to access to administration, occupying the say in system address the complicated nature of conflict. and state apparatus, 2) the next class comprises of Jammu and Kashmir government came up with such militants who had surrendered but are poor in getting a step and designed out a policy in November 2010.18 the stipends and other measures taken by the The document of the policy, titled, “Policy and

130 World Focus July 2017 Procedure for Return of Ex-Militants to Jammu and in order to arrive at certain amicable solution. Kashmir State,” generally referred to as the amnesty Rehabilitation policy deduced by Indian government policy, outlines an elaborate process that includes, in association with Jammu and Kashmir was “identiûcation, monitoring, debrieûng, rehabilitation and something which returnees (ex-militants) misquote reintegration of former militants and their dependents. and mispronounce as “”21. The policy reads that all those who have gone to Pakistan for training to be part of insurgent groups, Any movement which is not inclusive and are eligible to return back to state which they actually localized obviously becomes weak and ultimately falls belong to. Additionally, the returnees have to guarantee short of achieving the set goals. Due to internal the change of heart and segregation from militant confusion thousands of militants didn’t return to outfits. The returnees are subject to law and if Jammu and Kashmir after getting trained and stayed criminal charges of heinous involvement are to be there for survival.22 This policy rejuvenated the feeling found and in connection to that law has to go beyond of belongingness amongst the departed and politically mere interpretation. Security agencies were authorized convicted ones. Means of communication are varied to address the cases and issues covering the and taking advantage of these means militants began returnees. One of the Paramount features of the to think in proportion to the lines mentioned in the policy was the “Routes” mentioned for the return of policy.23 Change of heart and mind is prerequisite to youth. Such routes are: Attari-Wagah, Chakan Da- return which they have undergone decades ago after Bagh, Kaman Post, and Indira Gandhi International saying goodbye to violence. The language to convince Airport.19 These routes were meant for returnees to them at the initial stage of the policy was something take advantage of. Suspicion and misunderstanding which caught wild fire. There was an emancipating being the guiding principle between the two nations response from the militants and families they belong made the policy to enlist a formality which has brought to. The announcements on newspapers, TV channels it under a pessimistic circle. Submission of application and internet news portals were reading that a place forms in Jammu and Kashmir and across LOC was of birth is calling its children back with many included and the strict scrutiny paved way for its poor opportunities apart from shelter and natural settings.24 response from the ex-militants living in PoK/ Pakistan. The rational conditions do die the moment question The Indian embassy in Pakistan and security forces of betrayal and love comes in. Without caring about on selected check posts of designed routes were repercussions the wronged ones and victims of ever authorized to manage the human flow. proxy did apply and signaled the initiative the way they did during their migration to PoK for training.25 The Policy and Rehabilitees The culture of profit in terms of political, economic The concept of theorizing peace on the basis of and social look even at the cost of survival of others suspicion, proxy and manipulation has been guiding is an ever practiced practice. Without including the principle between the nations for decades. However, estimates on original papers the verbal promises of India and Pakistan are still to come out of it. Taking accommodation, reintegration and wellbeing were initiatives and measures is a daily business in political made.26 Pakistan already fraught with national circles of both the nations. The anticipation and infection didn’t hesitate them to visit back and issued configuration required for measures to address crisis all the documents and papers for return. is missing as for as Indo-Pak relations are concerned20. They jump to policies and measures The policy being new in terminology couldn’t without looking at ground reality. People are hesitate in continuing the manipulative nature of state guaranteed rights by international charters and and its administrators. The legacy of initiating constitution of nations to live in an unambiguous way. programs and policies on the name of peace continues. A culture of accommodation, reconciliation and Instead of clubbing the gap, policy out lays talk of theories of acculturation are prevalent in the enlargement. The routes mentioned in the policy were contemporary territorial structures, an offshoot of devised to make the return of these militants less nation-state concept. Here, it refers to the modals economic, friendly and easily accessible. The greatest which these two nations in particular do not employ casualty which this policy is encompassing through is

Rehabilitation Policy:A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants 131 the non-seriousness of the officials deployed on Aspirants couldn’t resist and stood by every scrutiny Jammu and Kashmir and across LOC to meet the state wanted them to go through. 32 All returnees and security challenges. Returnees on papers were their dependents were imprisoned for some time. directed to visit the concerned embassy. The officials Imprisonment of militants and these returnees which there would behave in a way which shows their according to the police is required needs proper focus. unwillingness to continue the policy27. The negligence Instead of fostering a sense of security in these and ill seriousness of deployed people, made these returnees, insecurity has an upper hand in their daily returnees to opt for third option. Without examining business.33 These returnees grieve that they were the impact of an illegal option the militants would imprisoned for more time than needed. A handful of believe that this is directed by Indian people add that their families including women and government.28Border trade if not a success in South children were harassed. Invariable outputs show the Asia, but, those who believe in sellout leave no stone unacceptability of state and administration to unturned to make Nepal another option for these reintegrate them to their lost environment, such as people to come. The hobnobbing culture of loot, a cases in different courts and police stations beyond blend of security and civil apparatus is what state the reach of ex-militants. A resident of one district or authorizes them. To extend message of wrong region has to visit the courts situated in other district approach of returnees to authorities led these men or region. These returnees are patched with charges taking salary at the name of security to publicly of which they do not have knowledge of. This fraud defame this policy.29 The routes designated to make on part of state provokes these returnees and the return of ex-militants possible didn’t fit the mind- associated people to think of a wrong path, more game of officials which they believe in for last decades originally posing threat to state.34 and being beneficiaries of it.30 Majority of the (ex- militants, their Pakistani wives and children) are Human Relations and Return disillusioned with the rehabilitation policy, since there Rehabilitation if put to table of discussion is something are only few designated points of return, among which which narrates story of retrieval to a situation, place Nepal is not recognized. Therefore, the Government and partly addition in these things, exception is of of J&K does not recognize them as beneûciaries of time only. For survival being in relation and contact is the rehabilitation policy. According to the J&K something which adds flavor to human life. The policy government, by the end of April 2015 not even a single reads arrangements to be made for the dependents Kashmiri militant had returned under the rehabilitation of those returnees who have married in PoK/Pakistan policy. The state government notes that up to April for entry into the country as per the existing laws of 2015, 453 former militants, along with 197 wives and the land. The wives and children without any 603 children had returned, but illegally, via Nepal and accusation of being involved in militant acts and being other routes, along with their families.31 Therefore, offshoots of circumstances are calling it a cold cage these ex-militants and their families are denied the where a man dies of freeze.35They claim themselves beneûts of the rehabilitation policy. Following are as men who have joined mainstream. They are indeed some of the issues and concerns related to brought in connection to mainstream, is what they reintegration and rehabilitation policy that confronts want to relate with those who fly from Kashmir and with these ex-militants. land relentlessly in Pakistan. The statement is recorded as “if Mushaal Malik”36 can visit Kashmir Security and back to Pakistan why not those who were brought Due to recent birth of twin nations (Indian and under an agreement”.37The dependents were Pakistan), security is still defined as something based reluctant to come because of the repercussions but on stereotype paradigms. Indian’s look at Pakistan authorities manipulated it beyond reference to the nationals with suspicion and vice-versa. These policy. “Death of mother and other family members stranded youth were also part of PoK establishment is a universal occurrence and synchronically for decades. In order to meet all the challenges of visiting the funeral rites is also a thing carrying security to avoid any bad occurrence, security importance”.38 The returned families are now in agencies incorporated all the formalities in policy.

132 World Focus July 2017 Jammu and Kashmir and despite expedient reasons is energy driven result, which indeed is part of the are not allowed once to see their relatives. latter as well, but the economic guarantee is broader concept which is confined till moral, social and Policy document shows the very imprudent collective sense is at top to direct the course of society nature of men at the helm of affairs which signifies and system.45 Economic guarantee is very much issuance of documents just to enter the territory and subject to identity which the returnees are short of. without caring about the future plight, ex-militants Global connotations of life and system are making misinterpreted it. These initiatives are futile unless demands of qualification wider of which identity and don’t have human ground and overshadowing the documents to recognition are essential.46 maxims of politics.39 Rehabilitation falls short of Radicalization is subject to feelings against state meaning when rehabilitee is denied the opportunity which comes from its ill practices and finally a spark even to think about the habitation which habituated neglected changes into unending fire.47 There seems him/her alternatively. Here connection is with wards to be no need to teach someone how to be a militant and wives who happened to be the residents of other except to equip him with arms. part of state or Pakistan and denial of documents to visit their birth places legally.40 Social Language A social animal is an accumulation of characters Economic Issues besides being physical structure and rehabilitation is Re-integration occupies importance in the policy which a step which demands social structures, characters was promised through training in trade and other skill and language to be accommodative.48 The returnees oriented courses. Being part of PoK and other parts received a warm welcome from villages and Mohallas of Pakistan these people are less aware about the they had born in. The wives of these returnees were changes undergone in social and economic fabric. given bridal treatment in the initial days and children Now they need economic means to continue the life accordingly got good responds from families they and for them to start a job directly is tough. Their returned to. Initial days were indicating optimum survival is subject to many conditions which results and these returnees and associated people government and society is yet to recognize. This ever recorded content. The short period temperament and first humanly step taken by government gets dead being result of suspicion and less avenues to when it passes through an unclean way. These overcome could not let the environment of returnees do not demand jobs and philanthropist compromise to continue. With the passage of time bounties but at the same time to deny them basic things begin to change. The militants who did live in avenues to work and live is that state is not looking Jammu and Kashmir in nineties as “peace citizens” into.41 This deprivation reminds them of the were in obsession that their act of joining militancy reservations and financial assistance which they were would be rewarded with social and economic receiving from Pakistan government.42 Poor bounties.49Their flimsy act of joining militancy and economic conditions badly hit the much needed concept of heroism situated on the postulates of gun education to their children. and grenade was socially deplorable those days. The disconnected and scattered society resultant of Acknowledging the fact that all spheres have modern technology and global definitions was ready undergone changes and eventual shift has marked to offer many things apart from their inclination they the state managements from mere structures to bodies came in connection with. They began to experience of deliverance. Despite these changes, the awry things against their preoccupied thinking.50 governments at center and state are still weighing the policy as threat.43 Economic assistance doesn’t The only remnant thing which reminds them mean big jobs and employment in government offices of their hey-days is that they are being called by to ex-militants but it means economic future of wards government as ex-militants and in general people call who are termed by this policy as them as capitulators to Indian forces.51 The general “dependents”.44Additionally, differentiating between perception about militancy was once you join the earning to feed and economic guarantee, the former wrong path, it becomes evident to die at the hands of

Rehabilitation Policy:A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants 133 security forces but the policy changed the narrative. had come back to accept the national integration and The families which they belong had all formalities requirements of normalcy.57 Separate colonies and done to legally transfer the possessions which they employment guarantee to Pandits and denial of basic have to surrender after their return now. This widened rights to ex-militants and family’s needs complete the gap between the families which gave birth to biopsy. Capacity building and training in skill militants and now families the militants own. The development are measuring rods to assuage the families of returnees living in Jammu and Kashmir conflict. Politics on human conduct and rights being are repenting decade’s long protection of properties. reminiscent of the British colonial legacy is prevalent The property which actually doesn’t belong to them to add flavor to the conflict. made these people to take U-turn.52 The social unacceptability has made scars very grave for the Data Interpretation returnees, which has led to an insane occurrence in The data interpretation is based on the interviews Naidkha, Bandipora district of Kashmir province conducted by the researchers during the course of where a woman from Pakistan set herself ablaze and the study. The interview method was used in this study. died of burns in protest to social and administrative A total of sixty (60) interviewees could be contacted animosity.53 through. A total of nine questions were asked to all interviewees. Based on their answers, it was found Kashmir known for hospitality falls short of that their views varied in regard to the type of questions essence it had earned in the foreign eyes. The asked. Firstly, regarding the know-how of the returnees are denied shelter and human treatment rehabilitation policy for them (militants who crossed and are considered as what they call as “Dalits”.54 over to PoK), 45 interviewees out of 60 are of the The social language persecutes the children view that they came to know of this policy through psychologically dubbing them as children of those who print and electronic media only. At the same time, deceived freedom. In social dictionary of Kashmir they were not aware of the proper procedure and Gujjars55 and tribal’s are termed as downtrodden guidelines through which they could have easily came people. The PoK is a hilly part of Jammu and Kashmir back to their home state without any problems and and in Kashmir they are seen as Gujjars though rich danger. 15 interviewees would assert that we were and wealthy. The children who took birth from the informed by our families living in Jammu and Kashmir wives of these militants originally the residents of PoK and they also had not proper knowledge of the policy. are termed as Gujjars.56 This visits the spine of these children as a social harassment. Policy is made up of Secondly, on answering the question about non-living things like ink, paper and words and its the awareness of the routes they could use under the appropriation to human affair is a sorry state affair. guidelines of this policy, it was found that 57 of the Policy if put to academic and human test is something total interviewees came through the routes that were which falls short of law backing, implementation and not mentioned in the policy like Nepal. Also, the enforcement through a legal order. If law denies them interviewees were not allowed to take the routes guarantee to live and work at the same time is pushing mentioned in the policy like the Wagah and Attari them to cry. Policies are subject to anticipatory crossing points and instead were directed to the Nepal configuration, whereby policy seems to be moving route. 3 of the 60 interviewees held that they took ahead with fruition. Without taking repercussions into advantage of legal routes mentioned in the policy. consideration the policy was initiated to fit the drama Thirdly, regarding the problems faced by them while out of colonial legacy. It created another class to coming back to their birthplaces, 40 interviewees are demonstrate and to disturb the already disturbed daily of the opinion that they were investigated by the business. Exodus of Pandits undoubtedly was offshoot security forces after crossing the International border of militancy and militancy was itself product of between Nepal and India and then sent to jails for political and economic misunderstandings. In both required time without any reason and justification. cases, the word rehabilitation was devised to throw Also, 20 interviewees had a very bad experience out confusion. Pandits are yet to come in valley and throughout the entire process. These respondents and the ex-militants who were living in PoK or Pakistan their families were being harassed un-necessarily by

134 World Focus July 2017 the security forces and money was demanded from status. In addition to it, 50 interviewees are willing to them as well. go back to PoK or Pakistan in connection to the treatment such as reservations in all fields of life and Fourthly, when asked how much they are social behavior of people available there. satisfied with the initiative taken by the government, a total of 55 interviewees had a negative view of this Eighthly, on the question of chances to rejoin policy. They are of the belief that they were bluffed militancy themselves or their children, 25 interviewees in the name of the facilities being provided to the are of the view that their children if meted with the returnee’s. They do not consider themselves as full same treatment by the government continuously, may citizens after their return. They do not consider join militancy sooner or later. There are chances for themselves at par with other citizens when it comes the returnee’s as well to join the ranks of militants if to privileges enjoyed by the common masses. Their their family members receive such kinds of family members are not allowed to meet their spouses discriminatory response from the government and the back in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and in various society at the same time. However, 35 interviewees other parts of Pakistan. Five interviewees had a are of the opinion that if they would not recourse to favorable view of this policy. However, these five the militancy in the future, still they will continue their interviewees belong to the well-off families here and fight for their rights as dignified citizen till their breath hence do not need governmental assistance/support for their survival. Lastly, regarding the return of other people still living in PoK or Pakistan, 53 interviewees are of Fifthly, about the treatment and social relations the view that they should not come back at any cost. in the Jammu and Kashmir, 45 interviewees believe Government and society in Jammu and Kashmir is that their society and family is not treating them well. not accommodative and reconciliatory. They do not Further, they also complain of property embezzlement want to rehabilitate any returnee, so they are at good by the family members. Even they could not get a in Pakistan and PoK. 7 of the 60 interviewees believe share in the homes they once left. 15 interviewees that people stranded across LOC should come back believe that they are very well accommodated in the to unanimously fight the atrocities of government society and the family as well. rather to pressure it for fulfillment of their grievances.

Sixthly, regarding the social exclusion of their Conclusions children, 50 interviewees are of the opinion that their Effective reintegration of ex-militants into society at children face lots of problems in getting admission to the economic, political and psycho-social levels is various schools in the state. However, 10 interviewees absolutely critical. This would enable them to resume are very much positive regarding this issue. Such normal and productive lives. However, prior to the interviewees are of the opinion that our brethren rehabilitation and reintegration process, the ûrst step support us in all possible ways. For them, there are is the recognition as “ex-militants” of those formerly some private schools which do not differentiate involved in combat. It is only after the former have between our children and those of the common been identiûed and recognized as “ex-militants,” and people. subsequently, as beneûciaries of the reintegration and rehabilitation policy, can their reintegration process Seventhly, the question asked to the under the policy begin. In the case of Kashmir, the interviewees was about the comparison of their life ûrst and the foremost issue is recognition as “ex- in the PoK and that of Jammu and Kashmir. 55 militants” of those Kashmiris who have returned or interviewees praise the government of PoK and the desire to return to the Valley from across the LoC in people there for their support and cooperation in each PoK and Pakistan, after shunning the path of violence. and every respect. Their children get the benefit of In 2010, in an appreciable move, while the reservation in admission and jobs in every fields Government of J&K announced a policy of provided by the Government of Pakistan. 5 rehabilitation for the Kashmiri ex-militants who interviewees however, are satisfied with their current wanted to return from across the LoC in PoK and

Rehabilitation Policy:A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants 135 Pakistan, the designation of just ûve Points of Return 7 Promise of Paradise that didn’t come true, The Hindu, 16 (Atari, Wagah, Salamabad, Chakan-Da-Bagh, and April, 2016. Indira Gandhi International Airport), has been a major 8 The Times of India ,15 August,2003 9 bottleneck in attracting the ex-militants, who mostly Personal Interview with, the ex-militant of Hizb-ul- Mujahideen (name withheld), 14 January 2016, Sofipora, take an arduous journey from PoK or Pakistan to . Nepal to return to the Valley to avoid harassment by 10 Musharraf ’s speech, 12 January, 2002, The Dawn. both Pakistani and Indian security forces. Since most 11 The Nation, 18 January, 2oo4. ex-militants have not entered the Valley “ofûcially,” 12 Dna, 11 April, 2010. they are not entitled to the beneûts of the rehabilitation 13 The Pioneer, 8 April, 2015. policy. The ex-militants are viewed with suspicion by 14 In Kashmir a militant who once joins militancy and if he both the state and the society, thereby hampering their surrenders is termed by society as third class militant. 15 effective reintegration and rehabilitation. The ex- Personal Interview with an ex-militant, (name withheld), 19 December 2015, Gulzapora, . militants lamented that while the state and the security 16 Personal Interview with an ex-militant (name withheld), of forces do not recognise them as “ex-militants” (to be Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, 7 March 2016, , . rehabilitated) or as civilians, the communities mostly 17 The Global World Post, 22 June, 2013. view them as traitors who betrayed the cause of 18 JK Government Order No. Home 1376 (ISA) of 2010, Dated: azaadi. These ex-militants in Kashmir inhabit a 23 November2010. nebulous space between being civilians and yet being 19 The Hindu, 16 April, 2013. 20 viewed as militants by the state. Deep crevices mark Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 12 April, 2016, Katroso, Kulgam. their uncertain lives, which are an upshot of their past 21 Most of the militants don’t know about rehabilitation policy association with militancy. Their prospects of and would misconceive it as Aman Ki Aasha economic, political and psycho-social reintegration are which differs from it but has many things in common such as deterred by the lack of recognition of their status by reconciliation and peace. the state and the apathy and insensitivity of the 22 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 2 community. Hardly any non-governmental February, 2016, Kansa Sangdi, Bandipora. organisation or community-based organisations are 23 Returnees got impressed by this initiative, which as per paper working towards alleviating their deplorable invites them to reintegrate with their families they left during 1990’s militancy movement. They happened to be believers of conditions. The identity of their Pakistani wives and talks between India and Pakistan to end the conflict. children remains in a state of delirium since they are 24 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 9 March, treated as outsiders by the state and also by some 2016, Batmaloo, Srinagar. locals or community members. The ex-militants and 25Personal Interview with a lady from Pakistan Occupied their families are consigned to a life that hangs before Kashmir, (name withheld), she lost her mother 9 months ago, them like an unfading malaise, devoid of economic 11 January, 2016, Barzullha, Srinagar. 26 security, and political and social inclusion. Personal Interview with a victim,( name withheld), who would state how he has sold his all possessions in Pakistan after listening about the wrongly conveyed message of the financial Endnotes and other assistance related things included in the policy, 11 1 Gwen Robinson and Iain Crow, “Offender January, 2016, Barzullha, Srinagar. Rehabilitation;Theory Research and Practice, sage publication, 27 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), he held London, 2009, p2 that I and other three families visited Indian embassy and other 2 Merriam Webster Dictionary, G&C Merriam CO.(United Sates offices meant for it. The officials there guided us that go anywhere of America: 2016), else to seek help and we can do nothing, 22 February, 2016, 3 Malknthi Hettiarachchi, Sri Lanka ’s rehabilitation program: Batmaloo, Srinagar. the humanitarian mission two, Prism Journal for complex 28 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), who operations, NDU, Vol4, Issue2, Messey University, North brutally castigated the security forces for their corrupt outlook. Newzeland, 2014, p11. He adds that I had no money to reach home after getting looted 4 A term in Urdu language, used to define a war like situation in by the men in uniform, 10 January, 2016, Narbal, . which people are involved in abundance. 29 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 18 5 Personal Interview with an ex-militant (name withheld) affiliated November, 2015, Batergam, Kupwara. with Aljahad, 11 March 2016, Hydergund, Shopian. 30 Personal Interview with an ex-militant, (name withheld), 14 6 Personal Interview with an ex-militant turned Ikhwani (name December, 2015, Zainpora, Shopian. withheld), 18 March, 2016, Zainapora, Shopian.

136 World Focus July 2017 31 Sameer Yasir and Meha Dixit, Rehabilitation Policy: A Field peace, reconciliation and resolution. The same thing is employed Study of Ex- Militants, EPW, Vol. LI No 53, December, 2016. to this policy leaving hundreds of families stranded. 32 Personal Interview with a returnee returned under this policy 44 Personal Interview with daughter of Returnee, (name (name withheld), decoding how security forces have a larger withheld), 22 November, 2015, Turkwangem, Shopian share in decision making. The policies are less mixture of civil 45 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld). He talks government suggestions and more of military involvement, 14 of old traditions when Jammu and Kashmir was symbol March, 2016, Batmaloo, Srinagar. hospitality and now everything has undergone change. 33 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 13 Collectivism and hospitality are no more realities in Kashmir, 8 February, 2016, Arwani, Anantnag. March, 2016, , Anantnag. 34 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), who is 46 Personal Interview with a son of returnee, (name withheld), subject to cases pending and trials are being held in Jammu who talks in a much needed style as for as the new conflicts are which costs him huge expenses and energy. He is a daily wager concerned. He would say that threats are more and security is and every trail costs him 2000 rupees, 13 February, 2016, less and we as a community are more insecure and sleepless. We Durpora, Shopian. are a generation who sees its course of life moving nowhere, 15 35 The wife of a returnee (name withheld) calls Kashmir a cold April, 2016, Soura, Srinagar. hell where she calls herself victim of it. While criticizing political 47 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), who environment, she adds that people cast votes and in turn getting feels there is no need of radicalization. If our children are deceived to the bad extent. She adds people are worse than continuously underestimated, they will get radicalize voluntarily, government as for as their behavior is concerned towards us. She 19 March 2016, Khanda, Budgam. is a mother of three daughters and a son. All three daughters are 48 Personal Interview with a wife of a returnee, (name withheld), brutally efficient in studies, continuing their studies on the who blatantly criticized the language of natives, 9 February, compromised certificates. In 2015 year two of her three daugh 2016, Beerwah, Budgam. ters scored 95% and 94% marks in 10 class exam, 18 January 49 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), who 2015, Molchitrgam, Shopian. crossed LOC three times narrates the then treatment of those 36 Mushaal Malik (Pakistani born) is wife of chairman JKLF, who stood against state and now the ill treatment they are Mr. Yasin Malik receiving, 29 April, 2016, , Anantnag. 37 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 50 A 55 year old returnees wife, (name withheld) from Pakistan denouncing government and separatists for their ill behavior to Administered Kashmir narrates the story of change which has end their plight. He held Yaseen Malik was caught along with swayed the concept of respecting militants and hazardously ill weapons and I am the one who came as a normal citizen, if his treatment of government. She adds when my husband first time wife can come to Kashmir and then back to Pakistan what is came from here to other part of Kashmir, there he held that we wrong with my wife and children, 4 February, 2016, Akhran , are heroes of Kashmir, 18 March, 2016, Barzullha, Srinagar. Kulgam. 51 In Kashmir, the youngsters who did join militancy never lose 38 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), 18 the name militant and if they surrender are subject to stern November, 2015, Batergam Kupwara. He considers himself public criticism. guilty of plight his family is suffering from. The wives and 52 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld), he is children didn victim of atrocities at the hands of family and society. After ’t want to come back but we and religious obligation forced coming back his family denies him the share of property, 22 them. March, 2016, Alam Gunj, Shopian. 39 Personal Interview with a returnee (name withheld) on, 13 53 Personal Interview with the family of returnee, (name May, 2016, . withheld), Main Town Sopore, Baramulla, 24 March, 2016. 40 Personal Interview with Chairman “Haqeeqi Movement”, 54 Downtrodden section in Indian society, who are not allowed Ahsan-ul-Haq. This is an organization constituted by all these to mingle with other castes in their daily business. It is a social families to fight their war of rights and duties, 15 April, 2016, practice not backed by law. Soura, Srinagar. 55 A group of people who do not or do own home and are 41 Personal Interview with a returnee, ( name withheld), who associated with profession of sheep, goat, ass and horses. They desperately represents those colleagues who want job and asks have their own language to communicate. They wear long beard a question to government of India and Jammu and Kashmir don and cover heads with cloths. These people mainly live in hilly ’t deprive them of documents to join any job. He adds that our areas. children and we can ’t even work in private sectors, 10 April, 56 Personal Interview with children of a returnee, (name withheld), 2016, Khrew, Pulwama. 1 May, 2016, Keeri, Baramula. 42 As per their interview every head of a family was receiving 57 Personal Interview with a returnee, (name withheld) who 2500 per month. Their children were given reservation in explains how arrangements are made for Pandits and how professional and other institutions followed by employment. returnees from PoK are neglected despite knowing their 43 Trust deficit which is the result of threat between people and acceptance of Indian constitution and integration, 4 March, 2016, state was and is bone of contention killing all steps towards Kader, Shopian. Rehabilitation Policy:A Field Study of PoK Returnee Militants 137 Growing Presence of China in Pak Occupied Kashmir and India’s Concerns Shobhit Kumar Jain

Introduction objection over environment degradation due to China and Pakistan have very long all weather economic activities. Land has been forcefully acquired friendship. The strategic cooperation between china and the people are forced to migrate. People are and Pakistan is continuing to be stronger. Balancing agitating such forceful displacement. Another issue India in South Asian region is the major fact making of concern is that the major beneficiary of their bond stronger.1 China has been providing various development project will be either Pakistan or China. types of economic and military cooperation to PoK will not get proper benefit according to its Pakistan. Many development projects have been participation in the projects. No consultation has been provided in the disputed territory of Pakistan occupied made with local leaders prior to give permission to Kashmir (PoK). PoK constitutes Pakistan occupied China to establish projects in PoK. Agitations and part of Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit- Baltistan allegations show that the real intention behind the region. A part of PoK has been handed over to China development projects is diplomatic and not in the by Pakistan. India claims PoK to be a part of Jammu favour of local people of PoK. Therefore, and Kashmir state of India and illegally occupied by development projects by China are not altruistic in Pakistan. Activities by Pakistan and China in PoK nature but strategically and commercially motivated. are strategically motivated.2 China is expecting to fulfil China has been projecting development aid as a tool its economic and diplomatic interests. The geo- to expand its influence in South Asia and Central Asia. political location of PoK is important for China to get Also China is willing to expand its access to raw connected with the rest part of Asia. PoK has vast materials and consumer markets. opportunities to mining industries and hydropower. China wants to explore natural resources of PoK. Development Projects by China Therefore, Gilgil Baltistan region of PoK has been China has been investing in various sectors in PoK. included in the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor The major sectors to get benefit from Chinese are (CPEC) project. Although, growing development transport power and mining sectors. Chinese company projects of China in PoK have raised many concerns China Road and Bridge Corporation is upgrading of India. India relates it with the sovereignty of India. Karakoram highway increasing width from 10 metre Presence of China can be a threat to the security of to 30 metre. Road from Jaglot to Skardu having 165 India. China’s interests can confront Indian interests km distance has been built by china. In Gilgit- in South Asia. China’s presence has made bilateral Baltistan region 135 km Thakot- Sazin road is being dispute between India and Pakistan a trilateral issue developed by china4. China and Pakistan are jointly between India, Pakistan and China.3 developing a highway connecting Keil to Bhimbher. A rail link is being established between Havelian to Recently, a massive protest has been Khunjareb further it will be linked to the Kashgar of demonstrated against Chinese development projects Pakistan. A joint venture named Pakistan China Sust in Gilgit Baltistan. Residents of Gilgit Baltistan have Port Company is managing the Sust dry port, some raised many objections on growing activities of China 200 km from Gilgit on Karakoram highway along in PoK. China has been exploiting natural resources China border.5 China has constructed 16 airstrips on like minerals. A large number of Chinese labour are the Karakoram Highway, primarily for military working in development projects which led to the purposes. This would be important for enhancing reduction of employment opportunities of the local Pakistan and China’s strategic airlift capabilities and people. Many civil society groups have raised ensure smoother logistical support. China is also involved in telecommunication sector. A 820 km long 138 World Focus July 2017 Optical Fibre Cable is being laid along the Karakoram strategic location between three nuclear power Highway by China. countries China, India and Pakistan. PoK’s strategic location shows that any country can easily access to China has established many hydropower the three major regions of Asia through PoK which plants in PoK. Neelum- Jhelum Hydropower plant are South Asia, East Asia and Central Asia. China and Kohala hydropower plant are set up in can easily control terrorist activities happening in the Muzaffarabad. korrak hydropower plant is located western parts. Major terrorist groups have links with at the border of Punjab and PoK. Bunji hydropower PoK. China can tighten its security and can control plant is established on Indus river near Gilgit. Some illegal infiltration. China is willing to expand its access dams like Diamer- Bhasha dam on Indus river, to Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Development of Mangla dam and Satpara dam have also been Karakoram highway will allow china to enter into established. Pakistan more easily as the time of travelling will be reduced. Through Pakistan, china can make its China has been developing a $ 62 billion presence in the Arabian sea and in the Indian ocean CPEC project. CPEC will have a vast transit system as well. China’s has promoted its policy of “string of including highways and railways spanning length and pearls” to encircle India. To encircle India china needs breadth of Pakistan. In the corridor, many power to increase its presence in north and west of India. plants and Special Economic Zones will be By renovating Gwadar port of Pakistan in Arabian constructed.6 Corridor will connect Kashgar city of Sea China has already encompassed India in the west. China to Gwadar port of Pakistan. Corridor is intended Karakoram highway will let China to complete its to boost the economy of Pakistan by modernising string. infrastructure and transit systems. CPEC is known as “corridor of opportunities” in Pakistan.7 For China along with Pakistan can easily patrol on the Pakistan corridor would be a “game changer.”8 CPEC border with India through Karakoram highway and is a part of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) railway line. Heavy army vehicles, tanks and weapons initiative. OBOR is an ambitious trade route initiative can be easily transformed to Pakistan if the conflict of China which will connect China with Europe between India and Pakistan rises. China is also passing through Central Asia and West Asia. OBOR increasing number of its military personals in PoK. is known as silk route. China is willing to connect it China is also trying to balance India in the South Asian with maritime silk route. Through CPEC, China can region by expanding its access to PoK. For China, connect OBOR with maritime silk route at Gwadar India is a rival country to its interests in the region. port.9 India has great political, economic and cultural influences in the region. China is willing to support In PoK, Gilgit- Baltistan region has a large Pakistan to balance India. Therefore, china needs to stock of metallic and non- metallic minerals. Chinese increase its military, diplomatic and economic support companies have invested in this region to explore to Pakistan. minerals. Hunza- Nagar district has many Chinese uranium mines. Chapusaran region has molybdenum Economic Interests of China mines while Astore district has copper mines. Many China’s economy is growing rapidly. A large amount gold mines have also been set up by Chinese of investment has been made in infrastructure, energy companies. and manufacturing sectors. China has a big population. China is transforming into an urbanised, Strategic Interests of China industrial economy. Fastest growing economy results China has been developing projects keeping its own into a rising demand for energy, raw materials and strategic motivations in its mind. Development projects foreign markets for exporting finished goods. China have been selected as they will ultimately fulfil requires a dense connectivity with the rest part of strategic interests of china. China is interested in the the world for investing surplus money and consumer geo political location of PoK. PoK has borders with markets. China is willing to take advantage of the Pakistan, India, china and Afghanistan. PoK has geo strategic location of PoK. Through PoK, china

Growing Presence of China in Pak Occupied Kashmir and India’s Concerns 139 can enter into the markets of South Asia and Central Another issue of concern of India is that china is Asia. increasing its military presence in PoK. Pakistan and China are jointly patrolling on the border. Through PoK has natural prosperity. Natural Karakoram highway China is transferring military resources mountaineer and remote areas are yet to vehicles and weapons to Pakistan. China has also be explored. A huge amount of minerals and water is deployed military to insure the security of the ongoing available in PoK. PoK has lack of industrialisation development projects and power plants.11 Presence and urbanisation. As a result natural resources are of Chinese military in PoK is a big threat to the yet to exploit. China is expecting to exploit minerals security of India. and water reservoirs of PoK. China’s development Himalayan region has been working as a security projects are motivated to fulfil china’s demand for wall between India and China. Economic activities raw material for industrial sector. Apart from the like hydropower plants, roads, railway line will make minerals PoK has the vast capacity to produce Himalayan region no longer as security wall. hydropower. Many rivers originate from Himalayas Increasing activities will also make PoK more suitable are flowing through PoK. Mountainair region is to trespass by terrorists. Terrorist activities will be suitable for producing hydropower. China is expecting motivated and will grow more easily. India has always to use surplus energy to fulfil its future demand for been target for the terrorist groups supported by energy. Therefore, China is sponsoring hydropower Pakistan. Illegal infiltration to India will rise. projects in PoK. India is also worrying about China’s policy Through PoK China can connect itself with to encircle India. China is increasing its presence in Central Asian countries. Central Asia is known for the neighbouring countries surrounding India. China huge natural resources and large consumer market. has developed Chittagong port in Bangladesh, A huge amount of natural oil, gas and minerals are Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and Gwadar port in found in Central Asian countries. Through Central Pakistan surrounding India’s sea coast. China is Asia, china can connect itself with gulf countries and establishing railway lines and roads passing through Europe. China can get cheap raw material for rising PoK under the policy of “string of pearls.” China is Chinese industries. A long trade route to Europe will willing to encircle India from the north. make China able to easy access to the markets of Europe. It will increase foreign trade of china. CPEC China is intended to get connected with is a way of China to get connected to Gwadar port. Gwadar port of Pakistan by highways passing through Through Gwadar port China can easily trade with PoK under CPEC project. Gwadar port will allow Arabian countries and African countries. china to be present in Arabian Sea. China is willing to increase its influence in the Arabian Sea. China can India’s Concerns watch out trade and other economic activities in the India has many objections on Chinese activities in Arabian Sea as the major sea route from Europe to PoK. PoK is a disputed territory between India and East Asia passes through Arabian Sea. Arabian Sea Pakistan. PoK was integral part of erstwhile princely has many mineral like oil, petroleum and natural gases. state of Jammu and Kashmir which was merged into China will have easily access to exploit minerals in India. PoK is a part of Jammu and Kashmir state of the Arabian Sea. India has a long coastline along with India illegally occupied by Pakistan. Pakistan has the Arabian Sea. Many Islands of Lakshadweep are transferred a part of PoK to the China ignoring the located in the Arabian Sea. India has been actively United Nations resolution. Growing economic conducting many economic zones, exclusive export activities by Pakistan and China without resolving zones and naval bases in the Arabian Sea. China may disputes is objectionable to India. According to India, confront Indian interests in the Arabian Sea. Chinese and Pakistani interfere is the attack on the Therefore, India will have major security threats if sovereignty of India.10 India has expressed objections china’s increases its strategic projects. over CPEC project because it includes Gilgit- Baltistan region of PoK.

140 World Focus July 2017 Summary idsacomments/IndiaandthePakistanChinaNexusin China has been emerging as a leading economy as it GilgitBaltistan_archaudhuri_160311 (Accessed on 28- has become second largest economy after United 05-2017). States. Chinese economy needs to be more connected 4 Malhotra, A. 2011. “The Red Shadow in Pakistan with the various parts of the world. A good connectivity Occupied Kashmir”, Scholar Warrior. can led to increase foreign trade and economic 5 Kasturi, B. 2017. “Facts About Chinese Presence in influences. Therefore, China is eager to explore new POK”, Available at http:// markets for its industrial products. Growing demand www.indiandefencereview.com/interviews/ for energy, oil and petroleum and minerals has forced factsaboutchinesepresenceinpok/ (Accessed on 06-06- China to search new areas with affluent natural 2017) resources. South Asia is the region which can connect 6 Malik, A. 2016. “Why is the China Pakistan Economic china with central Asia, Gulf Countries and Africa Corridor such a challenge to India?” The Economic either through land or sea ways. PoK has natural Times, Publshed on 16-11-2016. resources yet to exploit because of lack of 7 Ibid. industrialisation. China required to be connected PoK 8 with China on the one side and with Pakistan on the Shah, F. 2017. “Does the China-Pakistan economic other side. Through Pakistan China can use Arabian corridor worry India?”. Aljazeera. Available at Sea to get connect with Gulf Countries and Africa. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/02/ But China’s presence in PoK is disputed as PoK is chinapakistaneconomiccorridorworryindia1 illegally occupied by Pakistan. There is a need for 70208063418124.html resolving PoK dispute first. Residents of PoK must (accessed on 28-05-2017). be consulted before any kind of offer to China. India 9 Jaiswal,P. And Paul, A. 2016. “China-Pakistan has raised concerns over CPEC project because of Economic Corridor: Should India Worry? – Analysis “, sovereignty issue. China’s military deployment in PoK Eurasia Review, Available at http:// can produce security threat to South Asia region. A www.eurasiareview.com/28052016 peaceful environment can be established in South Asia chinapakistaneconomiccorridor shouldindia only after resolving PoK dispute.12 worryanalysis/ (Accessed on 07-06-2017). 10 Sahoo, P. 2017. “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor References: Unacceptable to India: Shivshankar Menon”, The 1 Malhotra, A. 2011. The Red Shadow in Pakistan Indian Express, Available at http://indianexpress.com/ Occupied Kashmir, Scholar Warrior. article/india/china-pakistan-economic-corridor- 2 Chansoria, M. 2017. “China Makes Its Presence unacceptable-to-india-shivshankar-menon-4623185/ Felt in Pak occupied Kashmir”, Sunday Guardian, (Accessed on 06-06-2017) Available at http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/ 11 Choudhury, R. A. 2011. India and the Pakistan- China china-makes-its-presence-felt-in-pak-occupied- Nexus in Gilgit- Baltistan, Institute for Defence Studies kashmir (Accessed on 07-06-2017). and Analyses Available at http://www.idsa.in/ 3 Choudhury, R. A. 2011. India and the Pakistan- China idsacomments/IndiaandthePakistanChinaNexusin Nexus in Gilgit- Baltistan, Institute for Defence Studies GilgitBaltistan_ and Analyses Available at http://www.idsa.in/ archaudhuri_160311 (Accessed on 28- 05- 2017).

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Growing Presence of China in Pak Occupied Kashmir and India’s Concerns 141 Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: A Case of Prolonged Negligence Vijay Kumar Yadav

The story of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) PoK is part of the greater Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) displays a tale of a territory which formally region consists of the so called ‘Azad Jammu and belongs to India, both legally and historically but Kashmir (AJK)’ and ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’. Hence institute has been under a continuous occupation by an integral part of India and therefore It has been Pakistan for around last 70 years. The Indian under the illegitimate control of Pakistan since state has largely remained nonchalance on the October 22, 1947. To this day one part of the state matter and as a result the axis of Pakistan and of Jammu and Kashmir continues to be under illegal China in this region has challenged the Indian occupation of Pakistan while the other part remains territorial sovereignty over PoK. The aim of this with India after accession. India has continued to paper is to analyse the Indian stance and response maintain that PoK is a legitimate part of the Indian on PoK since its occupation by Pakistan. It also Union. examines the contemporary geo strategic importance of PoK in the wake of the initiation Why Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is Crucial for of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) India? mega project. Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) as the name suggests is the territory which was occupied seventy Introduction years ago and since then maintained by Pakistan. It Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) was previously is important for India because sovereignty is one of part of the former princely state of Jammu and the most important virtues of a modern nation state Kashmir, which ceased to exist as a result of the Indo- and PoK is the sovereign territory of India. Pakistan Pakistani War of 1947–1948 also known as first maintains its dominance over the vast area, including Kashmir war. Pakistan launched tribal militias and the so called ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK)’ and Pakistani irregular forces to invade the princely state ‘Gilgit-Baltistan’ (referred to as the ‘Northern Areas’ of Jammu and Kashmir in order to occupy it. Later till August 2009)1. Presently approximately one third the regular Pakistani forces also joined militia groups. of the territories of the state of Jammu and Kashmir The ruler of the state subsequently acceded the state are in de facto control of Pakistan. These are not the to the union of India. Afterwards India sent its troops territories received by Pakistan by the partition of to evict the intruders from the state of J&K. the Indian subcontinent but was captured by it illegally. However Indian troops had neutralized almost two In the year 1947, soon after the partition of the British third of the state territory, India went to the United India the options ahead of the princely state of Jammu Nations in the hope of a fair and legitimate solution, and Kashmir were, to merge with India, to merge which would resolve the armed confrontation between with Pakistan or to stay independent. Before it could the two countries. Soon India realized that in the have decided for its future it witnessed an invasion prevailing scenario of cold war politics, it would never from Pakistan. get fair justice. India went ahead with its own policy of ascertaining the will of the people of J&K through By occupying the Northern territories of the democratic means. A constituent assembly was Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan has elected by the people of Jammu and Kashmir which gained a strategic lead for itself. The region shares drafted a constitution for the state and ratified the borders firstly with the state of Pakistan, which makes accession of the state to the Union of India on governance simpler for Islamabad. Then it shares February 15, 1954. border with the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan,

142 World Focus July 2017 after the capture of PoK Pakistan disconnected the consultation by the central government of Pakistan. only existing land linkage between India and The Karachi agreement thus was alien to the people Afghanistan. To the West, PoK shares boundaries of Gilgit-Balitistan who were mistreated by Pakistan with Tajikistan which forms the source of historical and was thus highly unpopular. From then until 1990s, linkage between India and Central Asia. Lastly, to Gilgit-Baltistan was governed through the colonial- the North are the territories of the Xinjiang province era Frontier Crimes Regulations. of the People’s Republic of China. The strategic location of the Pakistan occupied territories answer 2.The Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement the question why PoK is important for India? Apart The Sino-Pakistan boundary Agreement of 1963 from these reasons Pakistan is also interested in between the governments of Pakistan and China was sticking to its position in PoK as China is seeking one of the critical event in the discourse of resolving ‘strategic depth in the region’2 to extend its overall the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan illegally ceded 5,180 influence in the region, adding to that PoK is rich in square kilometers of Indian territory in Pakistan natural resources which Pakistan has been exploiting occupied Kashmir to China3. The agreement is since the occupation. In the present scenario too, controversial and therefore not recognized as legal Pakistan has been taking full advantage of the PoK by India. Since 1947 India claimed sovereignty over by bartering it with China, developing infrastructural the entire area of the pre-1947 princely state of Jammu project, highways and railways in it. These and Kashmir, and therefore maintained that Pakistan developments have been totally without negotiating and China did not share a legal common border. Time with New Delhi thus mounting the illegality committed reporting on the matter in 1963, expressed the opinion by the state of Pakistan on these disputed territories that by signing the agreement Pakistan had further “dimmed hopes of settlement” of the Kashmir Pakistan Occupied Kashmir since 1947: dispute between Pakistan and India4. Changing Dynamics and Critical Developments On 1 January 1948, India took the issue of Jammu 3.The Karakoram Highway Project and Kashmir to the United Nations Security Council. The Karakoram Highway (KKH) connects Pakistan And on 21 April 1948, the Council passed a resolution with China. It was built in 1978 with the Chinese calling for Pakistan to withdraw all its regular and assistance. It runs through Abbotabad in the Khyber- irregular forces from all of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan passes through India to progressively reduce its forces to the minimum the capital of Gilgit–Baltistan, Gilgit, and continues level required for law and order. Following which a through the valleys of Nagar and Hunza, along plebiscite was planned to ascertain the will of the the Hunza River. It leads to Kashgar, in the Xinjiang citizen of Jammu and Kashmir. However, no region of China. The KKH is about 1280 kms long withdrawal was ever carried out by Pakistan and the and Pakistani section of the KKH is about 800 kms whole process of UN recommendations stagnated. long and much of it (about 580 kms) runs through the Since then Gilgit-Baltistan and a western portion of Gilgit-Baltistan region of the PoK. This project has the state called AJK have remained under the illegal multiple strategic implications for regional security, control of Pakistan. especially that of India. As part of the recent China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China pumped 1The Karachi Agreement in an additional $46 billion for the renovation and On 29 April 1949, Azad Kashmir was made to sign reconstruction on the Pakistani portion of the the Karachi Agreement, which was apparently kept Karakoram Highway (KKH). as a secret by the Pakistani Government upto 1990s. Through this agreement Pakistan ceded all control 4.Altering the Status Quo of PoK by Pakistan over Gilgit-Baltistan. This is seen as an effort by The territory of present-day Gilgit-Baltistan was Pakistan to legitimize its rule over Gilgit-Baltistan and transformed into a separate administrative unit of to integrate these territories permanently into Pakistan in 1970. It was formed by the merger of the Pakistan. India was largely silent on the matter even former Gilgit Agency the Baltistan District of the when the fate of the people was sealed without their Ladakh Wazarat and the hill states of Hunza and

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: A Case of Prolonged Negligence 143 Nagar. This move was much more than a simple government of PoK which Pakistan refers as ‘Azad administrative division for convenience but was a Kashmir’ was consulted. strategic decision to incorporate the territories of Gilgit-Baltistan permanently into Pakistan. In 1974 Pakistan has ignored the resentment of the the Government of Pakistan under the leadership of people of Gilgit-Baltistan against increasing Chinese Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto abolished the State penetration into their area. The people of PoK had Subject Rule in Gilgit-Baltistan which meant serious registered their protest when Pakistan ceded the Trans demographic changes inside the territory. Pakistani Karakoram Tract to China in 1963. The people of Government encouraged Sunnis from other parts of the region fear that if the current pace of Chinese the country to acquire land and settle in Gilgit- penetration is sustained then China may completely Baltistan5. Later in the year 2009 the Pakistani cabinet take over Gilgit-Baltistan. In a New York Times passed the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self- article written by Selig Harrison, he states that at Governance Order which was signed by the least 7000-11000 Chinese troops have been stationed then President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari. Gilgit- in the Gilgit-Baltistan region of the PoK8. Baltistan thus gained a de facto province-like status without constitutionally becoming part of Pakistan. Conclusion The socio-political and economical circumstances in The Growing Chinese Presence PoK highlight the harsh realities of misrule and neglect The involvement of China in PoK is not new. China of the region. The popular resentment against has yet again got involved in the PoK through a recent, Pakistan is increasing day by day. The demographic controversial project of One Belt One Road and its equation of PoK has changed significantly since its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The occupation by Pakistan. Moreover, Chinese and jihadi CPEC is based in territories which belong to India footprint adds another strategic dimension to the and had been consecutively captured by Pakistan. discourse on PoK. The Sino-Pakistan boundary The sovereignty of India is breached with the project agreement was an illegal land deal which diluted running through PoK. India also did not attended the India’s long-term security and economic interests. forum meet of OBOR in May, 2017 due to this reason. Against this backdrop, India’s response to these However, surprisingly this is not the first development events has been rather lukewarm. and infrastructure project China has had in the PoK territories of Kashmir. The Karakoram Highway is Therefore it is absolutely essential and ‘about 1280kms. long highway project that connects prerequisite for Indian policy makers to adopt a Abbotabad in the Kyber-Pakhtunwa province of proactive approach towards PoK which is an integral Pakistan with Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of part of India. It should also try to reshape and mobilise China.6 international opinion against the non-democratic and unlawful occupation of PoK by Pakistan since The Chinese companies have been involved 1947.So far there has been little effort from India to in PoK on a number of small and big projects. Both clearly define its objectives on PoK which it regards the countries signed MoUs on cooperation for as an integral part of its territory. India needs to development of hydel, thermal and solar energy reassert its claim on PoK as per the 1994 projects, and for promotion of river fisheries. In Parliamentary Resolution9. There is a greater need September 2009, Pakistan signed an agreement with for India to clearly define its strategic objectives with the People’s Republic of China for a major energy regard to PoK. India also needs to take note of the project in Gilgit-Baltistan which includes the changing dynamics of PoK and make a serious construction of a 7,000-megawatt dam at Bunji in synergetic effort to shape and orient the debate on the Astore District7. These developments in Pakistan Kashmir in its favor. occupied Kashmir has remained totally bilateral in nature between Pakistan and China. What is worth Endnotes noting is that neither India nor the people and 1 Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, IDSA (2011),”Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: The Changing

144 World Focus July 2017 Discourse”, IDSA PoK Project Report, accessed on 9 7 Khan, M. Ishmail (2009), “Gilgit-Baltistan autonomy“, June, 2017, available at: http://www.idsa.in/system/ accessed on 9 June, 2017, available at: https:// files/book/book_PakistanOccupiedKashmir.pdf web.archive.org/web/20090912040340/http:// 2 Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, IDSA www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content- (2011),”Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: The Changing library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-gilgit-baltistan- Discourse”, IDSA PoK Project Report, accessed on 9 autonomy-qs-01 June, 2017, available at: http://www.idsa.in/system/ 8 Harrison, Selig S. (2010), “China’s Discreet Hold on files/book/book_PakistanOccupiedKashmir.pdf Pakistan’s Northern Borderlands“, accessed on 9 June, 3 Press Trust of India (2006), ”China illegally 2017, available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/ occupying land”. accessed on 9 June, 2017, available 27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html at: http://expressindia.indianexpress.com/news/ 9 Parliament Resolution on Jammu and Kashmir dated fullstory.php? newsid=78171 22 Feb 1994 communicated the following points: The 4 Time (1963), “Pakistan: Signing with the Red State of Jammu & Kashmir has been, is and shall be an Chinese”, accessed on 9 June, 2017, available at: http:/ integral part of India and any attempts to separate it /content.time.com/time/magazine/article/ from the rest of the country will be resisted by all 0,9171,870184,00.html necessary means; India has the will and capacity to 5 Singh, Sushant (2015), “Those troubled Peaks”, firmly counter all designs against its unity, sovereignty accessed on 9 June, 2017, available at: http:// and territorial integrity; and demands that - Pakistan indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/those- must vacate the areas of the Indian State of Jammu troubled-peaks/ and Kashmir, which they have occupied through 6 Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, IDSA aggression; and resolves that - All attempts to interfere (2011),”Pakistan Occupied Kashmir: The Changing in the internal affairs of India will be met resolutely”. Discourse”, IDSA PoK Project Report, accessed on 9 Accessed on 10 June 2017, available at: June, 2017, available at: http://www.idsa.in/system/ http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/ files/book/book_PakistanOccupiedKashmir.pdf document/papers/ parliament_resolution_on_Jammu_and _Kashmir.htm

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Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and India: A Case of Prolonged Negligence 145 Contributor’s Profile Anil Kamboj I.G.(Retd.) Former Senior Fellow, IDSA & Professor at NDIM, New Delhi Prof. Snehalata Panda Former Emeritus Professor, Deptt. of Political Science, Berhampur University, Berhampur, Odisha Dr. SudhanshuTripathi Professor in Political Science, UP Rajarshi Tandon Open University Allahabad (UP) Dr. B. Srinivas, IPS Executive Director, Security & Co-ordination, NTPC, New Delhi G. Kishore Babu Editor, World Focus & Director, Foundation for Contemporary Studies, New Delhi Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Central University of South Bihar, Gaya (Bihar) Dr. Gouri Sankar Nag Associate Professor and Head of the Political Science Department of Sidho Kanho Birsha University, Purulia, West Bengal Dr. Sajal Basu Senior Research Fellow of I.C.S.S.R, New Delhi, and Formerly, Fellow of Indian Institute of Advanced Study, Shimla Dr. Netajee Abhinandan Assistant Professor, Political Science, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack (Odisha) Dr. Mohor Chakraborty Assistant Professor in Political Science, South Calcutta Girls’ College (aff. to University of Calcutta), Kolkata, West Bengal Dr. Saleem Ahmad Assistant Professor , Department of Political Science, School of Humanities & Social Sciences (SHSS), Galgotias University, Greater Noida, U.P. Dr. Khushbu Gupta Assistant Professor, Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi, New Delhi Snehil Kacker Assistant Professor, Lady Shri Ram College for Women, University of Delhi Dr. Aparna Banerjee Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Serampore College, Kolkata Dr. Prasanta Sahoo Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Bharati College, University of Delhi Dr. Pitam Ghosh Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Bangabasi Evening College, University of Calcutta Pankaj Lakhera Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Swami Shraddhanand College, University of Delhi Shivani Sharma PhD Research Scholar, South Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Afroz Ahmad Phd Research Scholar, Centre For Research And Security Studies, School of International Studies, Central University of Gujarat, Gandhi Nagar Jahangir Ahmad Khan Phd Research Scholar School of International Studies, Central University of Gujarat, Gandhi Nagar Parul Khatri Assistant Professor, School Of Data Science, Maharishi University of Information Technology (MUIT), Noida, U.P. Charu Khatri PhD Research Scholar, Faculty of Education, Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi Manisha Chaurasiya PhD Scholar, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Arif Hussain Malik Research Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Kashmir, Srinagar , J& K Toseef Ahmad Bhat Research Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Kashmir, J& K Shobhit Kumar Jain Ph.D. Candidate, Centre for International Politics, Central University of Gujarat, Gandhi Nagar, Gujarat Vijay Kumar Yadav PhD Scholar, Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

146 World Focus July 2017 World Focus: 2009-2017

· January 2009 Japan in World Affairs* · February 2009 Chile : Democracy & Development* · March 2009 China* · April 2009 Pakistan · May 2009 India and West Asia: Development Perspectives · June 2009 NAM: India & Egypt* · July 2009 Developments in Sri Lanka* · August 2009 Central Asia: The Global Flashpoint* · September 2009 Environment & Sustainable Development* · October 2009 India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) ·Nov-Dec. 2009 (Annual Number) Dynamics of India’s Foreign Policy ·January 2010 Af-Pak: Anti-Terror Strategies ·February 2010 Changing Bangladesh: New Leap Forward* ·March 2010 Climate Change: Beyond Copenhagen* ·April 2010 US & South Asia* ·May 2010 India: An Economic Power ·June 2010 Why is Gandhi relevant even today ? ·July 2010 Revisioning SAARC* ·August 2010 Russia in the changing World* ·September 2010 China Today* ·October 2010 Re-whetting India’s Look East Policy* ·Nov.-Dec. 2010 (Annual Number) Emerging India’s Foreign Policy* ·January 2011 Rabindranath Tagore* ·February 2011 Buddhism in the Contemporary World* ·March 2011 Disaster Management in India* ·April 2011 South China Sea Dispute: Emerging Developments* ·May 2011 India & Neighbours (Series One) ·June 2011 India’s Neighbourhood Policy: Harmony & Development (SeriesTwo) ·July 2011 US Policy Responses to Developments in the Arab World* ·August 2011 Mahatma Gandhi & Gandhism* ·September 2011 Contemporary China* ·October 2011 Re-emergence of Russia in the horizon?* ·Nov-Dec.2011 (Annual Number) India’s foreign Policy: Perspectives & Prospects* ·January 2012 Pakistan at Crossroads* ·February 2012 Growing Indo-Bangladesh Relations* ·March 2012 SAARC & India* ·April 2012 Re-energizing India - Nepal Relations* (Series I) ·May 2012 Nepal in Transition* (Series II) ·June 2012 Changing Equations in Asia-Pacific & ASEAN Region ·July 2012 Contemporary Korean Peninsula ·August 2012 Swami Vivekananda’s Vision: Lessons for the 21st Century* ·September 2012 China Today ·October 2012 A Glance at India’s Economic Growth* ·November 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & India’s Foreign Policy (Series-1)* ·December 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & India’s Foreign Policy (Series-2)* ·January 2013 Asian Maritime Diplomacy* ·February 2013 India & European Union* ·March 2013 Energy Security: Indian Perspectives* ·April 2013 Dr. B.R. Ambedkar & Social Justice: A National & Global Perspective* ·May 2013 Environment and Sustainable Development* ·June 2013 India & West Asia* ·July 2013 India & Neighbours* ·August 2013 M.N. Roy: The Veteran Indian Internationalist* ·September 2013 India and Afghanistan * ·October 2013 India & Myanmar Relations* ·November 2013 Global Governance & Decentralization* ·December 2013 (Annual Number) India’s Foreign Policy* ·January 2014 Indian Diaspora* ·February 2014 Climate Change* ·March 2014 China in a changing * ·April 2014 Philosophical Thoughts of Buddha, Gandhi & Dr. Ambedkar: Contemporary Relevance* ·May 2014 Ethics & Indian Civilizational Thought: Global Implication* ·June 2014 India & ASEAN* ·July 2014 Disaster Management in India* ·August 2014 India’s Economic Growth* ·September 2014 India & Neighbours * ·October 2014 India’s Quest for Energy Security* ·November 2014 (Annual Number) India’s New Foreign Policy (Series-1)* ·December 2014 (Annual Number) India’s New Foreign Policy (Series-2)* ·January 2015 Oil Diplomacy in Central Asia & West Asia* ·February 2015 Environmental Diplomacy and Sustainable Development* ·March 2015 Makers of Modern India* ·April 2015 India’s Economic Diplomacy* ·May 2015 Energy Security Needs of Rising India* ·June 2015 India & China Relations* ·July 2015 Conflict Zones of the World* ·August 2015 India & Neighbours* ·September 2015 Regional Diplomacy: SAARC, ASEAN & BRICS* ·October 2015 Climate Change* ·November 2015 India’s Foreign Policy - Series 1* ·December 2015 India’s Foreign Policy - Series 2* ·January 2016 Global Politics of Oil in West & Central Asia* ·February 2016 Terrorism and Geopolitics* ·March 2016 India and East Asia* ·April 2016 India’s Economic Diplomacy * ·May 2016 Disaster Management & Mitigation* ·June 2016 Global Turmoils: Peace & Conflict Management* ·July 2016 Ethics in the Contemporary World* ·August 2016 India & Neighbours* ·September 2016 India’s Maritime Diplomacy and China Silk Road* ·October 2016 Climate Change* ·November 2016 India’s Foreign Policy: Series -1* ·December 2016 India’s Foreign Policy: Series -2* ·January 2017 Russia and the World* ·February 2017 Redical Islam & Terrorism* ·March 2017 From Pacific Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Region: Shifts in Global Politics* ·April 2017 One China Principle and Trump’s U.S. Strategy* ·May 2017 Gandhi, Bose & Dr. Ambedkar* ·June 2017 Environment & Sustainable Development* RNI No. RN34710/80 No. RNI

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Edited/ Owned/ Published and Printed by G. Kishore Babu from B-49 (Ground Floor), Joshi Colony, I.P. Extn., Delhi-110092 and Printed at Meenakshi Press 4857/24, Ansari Road, Dariya Ganj, New Delhi - 110002