Next-Generation Wargaming for the US Marine Corps
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C O R P O R A T I O N YUNA HUH WONG, SEBASTIAN JOON BAE, ELIZABETH M. BARTELS, BENJAMIN SMITH Next-Generation Wargaming for the U.S. Marine Corps Recommended Courses of Action For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2227 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 9781-9774-0311-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Futuristic soldiers wearing virtual reality goggles/Donald Iain Smith/Getty Images. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report gathers information on the tools, approaches, best practices, and other lessons learned from a wide variety of organizations involved in defense or national security wargaming, in order to make recommendations to the U.S. Marine Corps as it seeks to expand its wargaming capability. This research was sponsored by the Marine Corps Operations Analysis Directorate and was conducted within the Navy and Marine Forces Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a feder- ally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence community. For more information on the Navy and Marine Forces Center, see https://www .rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/navy-and-marine-forces.html or contact the director (con- tact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures ................................................................................................. ix Tables .................................................................................................. xi Summary .............................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xix Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xxi Glossary ............................................................................................. xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Research Objectives .................................................................................... 1 Tasks ..................................................................................................... 1 Approach ................................................................................................ 2 The Organization of This Report .................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO Defining Wargaming ................................................................................ 5 What Is a Wargame, and What Is It Used For? .................................................... 5 Categories of Wargames ............................................................................... 6 Wargaming for Concept Development ............................................................ 7 Wargaming to Support Capability Development and Analysis ................................ 8 Science and Technology Wargaming .............................................................. 8 Senior Leader Engagement and Strategic Discussion ............................................ 8 Wargaming to Support Operational Decisions and Plans ...................................... 9 Wargaming for Training and Education .......................................................... 9 Time Orientation of Different Wargame Types .................................................10 Focus for Future Marine Corps Wargaming Capability .......................................10 v vi Next-Generation Wargaming for the U.S. Marine Corps A Brief History of Wargaming ......................................................................11 The Early Days of Wargaming ....................................................................11 Wargaming Before, During, and After World War I ...........................................13 The Aftermath of War and the Rise of Operations Research .................................14 Decline and Resurgence in the Post-Vietnam Era ..............................................15 Post–Cold War Wargaming .......................................................................16 The Utility of Gaming ...............................................................................17 CHAPTER THREE The Current Environment for Wargaming .....................................................19 Senior Leader Emphasis ..............................................................................19 Other Departments Activities ...................................................................... 20 Developments Within the Wargaming Community .............................................21 Defining Communities of Practice ...............................................................21 Wargaming Communities of Practice ........................................................... 22 Wargaming Education ............................................................................ 24 Trends in Commercial Gaming .................................................................... 24 CHAPTER FOUR The Marine Corps’ Vision for Next-Generation Wargaming .............................. 27 Generational Constructs of Wargaming .......................................................... 27 The 2017 Vision for Next-Generation Wargaming .............................................. 30 CHAPTER FIVE Wargaming Centers .................................................................................35 Overview ...............................................................................................35 Selection of Wargaming Centers ..................................................................35 Format for Individual Center Write-Ups ....................................................... 38 Major Themes .........................................................................................39 Assessing the State of the Art in Wargaming ..................................................... 40 CHAPTER SIX The Framework of Wargaming Capabilities....................................................45 Tasks for Wargames to Support Concept Development ......................................... 46 Tasks in Support of Wargames to Support Capabilities Development and Analysis ........ 46 Tasks in Support of Science and Technology Wargaming .......................................47 Tasks in Support of Senior Leader Engagement and Strategic Discussion .................... 48 Tasks for Wargames in Support of Operational Decisions and Plans ..........................49 Tasks for Wargames That Support Training and Education ................................... 50 The Ecosystem of Tools ............................................................................. 50 Contents vii CHAPTER SEVEN Courses of Action ....................................................................................53 Implications for Marine Corps Wargaming .......................................................53 Developing Courses of Action .......................................................................55 Courses of Action .....................................................................................57 The Low-Resourced Course of Action ...........................................................57 The Medium-Resourced Course of Action ......................................................58 The High-Resourced Course of Action ......................................................... 60 Takeaways and Next Steps ...........................................................................61 APPENDIXES A. Wargame Center Write-Ups ..................................................................63 B. Catalog of Wargaming Tools and Approaches .......................................... 133 C. Tables of Wargaming Tasks ................................................................. 207 Bibliography ........................................................................................ 215 Figures 2.1. Wargaming Categories and Their Time Horizons ..................................10 4.1. The Collaborative Gaming Engine ....................................................32