statistical society of australia incorporated newsletter November, 2002 Number 101

Registered by Australia Post Publication No. NBH3503 issn 0314-6820 An interview with Frank Hansford-Miller

To those who regularly attend the some lateral thinking. Indeed, at the As a tribute to Frank the Branch WA Branch of the SSAI meetings, dinners following the meetings, Executive felt that someone from the Frank Hansford-Miller is which Frank cannot attend due to local branch should interview him. As immediately recognizable as the none of the ladies in the executive felt his being located north of the end of person who almost always asks a brave enough, they asked me to question of the speaker. His question the train line in Perth, it is often interview Frank because I have known is usually spiced with some aspect of remarked upon about what form him since he tutored statistics part time his varied life and usually involves Frank was in that night! at Murdoch University in the 80’s. I was happy to oblige. The following are some of the facts gained from my interview with Frank on 23rd August 2002 at his house in Yanchep. Frank Hansford-Miller comes from a working class background. Born in London in 1916, he will turn 86 in November 2002. He was educated at Colfe’s Grammar School. In 1940 he volunteered for the Armed Forces and served six years in the war, seeing service in the Royal Artillery defending London against enemy aircraft. He entered University College London, to read mathematics, in 1946. His studies were interrupted in 1947- 1949 by a hospitalisation due to tuberculosis of the spine where three vertebrae were eaten away. He was not beaten; he fought back and graduated BSc, later entering King’s College in the University of London, at first full time and then part-time doing research for Frank Hansford-Miller his MSc and PhD. Frank met Phyllis, his wife to be, in London during the war. They had a In this issue happy relationship and were married Shaping the Statisticians of the Member Advantage ...... 7 for 48 years. He misses her greatly and Future ...... 4 Branch Reports ...... 8 his house in Yanchep is adorned with her paintings. Frank took up singing 55th Session of ISI ...... 5 Conferences ...... 16 after his wife’s death and two years ago was voted the best karaoke singer gone through a terrible century with in the Burswood International Cabaret Hitler and Stalin and are more aware Lounge. He has produced 3 CD’s and now. There’s no reason why the world 10 singles under his singing name of shouldn’t be a happy and prosperous PO Box 85, “Frisky Frank”. He is obviously proud place. of his activity and mentioned that he Ainslie ACT 2602 The statistician that Frank most admires has produced 50-60 books (on a Phone/Fax (02) 6249 8266 is Maurice Kendall. Indeed, in a recent diverse selection of subjects) not just on Email: [email protected] RSS News he wrote that he would like to statistics and related areas. Frank Society Web Page see a plaque commemorating Kendall, publishes his many works under just as the RSS dedicated a plaque http://www.statsoc.org.au ABCADO publishers, which he commemorating Fisher’s life. Frank also founded in 1966. spoke admiringly of David Cox. 1 Editors Frank proudly boasts that he is /2 1 When Frank turned 65, he and his wife Russian and /2 English since his Alice Richardson, School of Mathematics mother’s father was born in Russia emigrated to Australia where he was and Statistics, University of Canberra, and he believes this mix is what makes gladly accepted, being no burden to the PO Box 1, Canberra ACT 2616 Email: him think differently from others. He state. They came to Perth where his [email protected] has a wide range of interests including wife’s sister and family had settled Fax: (02) 6201 2683 religion, politics, geography, poetry earlier. He was introduced to Terry Eden Brinkley, Australian Bureau of and history. While colleagues found it Speed, Head of Mathematics at the Statistics, Locked Bag 10, Belconnen, better for their careers to concentrate University of Western Australia at the ACT 2616 on one thing, he claimed that was not time, who immediately recognized Email: [email protected] what he was like. Frank’s name from many published Phone: (02) 6252 6068 proceedings of the RSS, in which Frank’s introduction to statistics was at discussions of papers read to the RSS Correspondence University College, and he has always often included Frank’s contributions. Please direct all editorial correspondence been interested in politics. To him Consequently, Frank became a tutor at to Alice Richardson. statistics involves the whole of life and UWA, Murdoch University, and Curtin that’s what he likes about it. He was Disclaimer University. Frank coaxed Terry into elected as a Fellow of the Royal doing a marathon with him, and Frank The views of contributors to this Statistical Society while working in went on to do 7 marathons only retiring Newsletter should not be attributed to London and he is now a life member. the Statistical Society of Australia, Inc. when his wife died. Frank was the During this time in London, meetings World Champion Race Walker at the were held at the School of Hygiene and Subscriptions Brisbane World Masters Games in 1994. Tropical Medicine in Senate House. The Newsletter of the Statistical Society At the age of 69 he published a paper of Australia is supplied free to all Frank says that his interest in statistics on Australian Numbers in the journal members of the society. Any others stems from wanting to do something “Teaching Mathematics and Its wishing to subscribe to the Newsletter for the world and make it a better Applications”, Volume 6, pp8-12. This may do so at an annual cost of A$25.00 place. He feels that we have become for an issue of four numbers. paper is a tribute to his endeavour to too technical and should ask “How is assimilate into his adopted country this piece of research going to help Advertising and in it he notes the number 69 is in humanity?” His advice to young Advertising will be carried in the fact “69-any way up”. But if in fact one statisticians is to try to broaden their inverts the digits individually, 69 Newsletter on any matters which the interests, try to get in touch with the Editors feel are of interest to the members becomes 96. He wrote the article with world and not devote 100% of their of the Society. For details of advertising the idea in mind that Australia is energy to the mathematics side but to rates, etc. contact the Editors at the above known as “Down-Under” and, try to see what really is the end product addresses. jokingly, as being “Upside Down”. He to society of the new things they are aspires to this next milestone which is Printer doing. He says we need to adopt a reaching 96, despite medical setbacks, more unselfish approach and to think National Capital Printing but he may well do it in his own of others if we are to become better 22 Pirie Street, Fyshwick ACT 2609 inimitable way, and I am sure he will individuals in society. We can’t think of accept whatever God has in store. statistics outside of society; we need to DEADLINE FOR put statistics back in and make a When I left, Frank was in good spirits, NEXT ISSUE: bigger contribution of society. and I’d gleaned much more than I can write here. This is just a glimpse into 20 January 2003 Frank denies having any fears for the his long and varied life. current millennium. He trusts in the Lord and is a Christian. He said we’ve Brenton R. Clarke

2 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 Editorial

What did the Australian Science former Questacon exhibit. that if it’s big, if you can play with Festival bring to your area? Here Standing about 6 feet high, the it, then it attracts a crowd. What in Canberra there was a busy idea was to drop a golf ball in the other possibilities are there for programme of events in August top, watch it rattle past the posts statistics to be represented at including ActewAGL’s Amazing (50% chance of left and right at future exhibitions? ANSTO drew World of Science - an exhibition each post) and watch the binomial the crowds in with a display with displays from over 50 proportions settle into place at the entitled “A day in the life …”, organisations ranging from ACT bottom of the device. Every time describing everyday events and Workcover to the University of we walked past, there was a small products along with their reliance Canberra. crowd of children and adults, on radio isotopes. What about “A dropping balls and discussing the day in the life …” with a We strolled around looking for the results with ANU exhibitors on probabilistic or statistical bent? statistical aspects, and almost hand. Any other bright ideas? Think came away empty-handed. But in about it for next year, get in on the one corner the Physics Department This display was the only overtly act and as always, tell us all how it at the Australian National statistical one. But note that if it’s went! University had a quincunx on statistical it need not be boring - display. We were told it was a the quincunx seems to indicate Alice Richardson

Correction Funding formulae for non WIN! government schools Announcing the first in a The final formula in my article in the last newsletter contained an series of statistical error, in the denominator. The corrected formula follows: competitions to be run in the Newsletter. The table suggests a proxy for Pr(studenti in CDj attends schoolk): The Haiku is a well known short poetical form of Japanese origin, consisting of three lines of five, seven and five syllables each. The subject where Proportion non government studentsCD is the number in the is traditionally to do with second column in the table and α is a parameter to be estimated, nature, but you are invited to and possibly dependent on school. The current formula has α=0 and write one on a statistical a uniform value of α=1 would be readily understandable. theme. Here’s one to get you Disclaimers started. Burning midnight oil 1) The original disclaimers apply. Ray Lindsay AStat Monte Carlo Markov chain Estimates revealed. Send your entries to one of the Web site of the month Editors by 20 January. A range of the best entries will be Continuing the theme of the Editorial, this month’s published in the next website belongs to the National Science Week: newsletter. www.scienceweek.info.au. The site links to activities around And the prize? The glory Australia, including the Canberra-based Australian Science associated with seeing your Festival www.sciencefestival.com.au which is the "prototype work in print! andwww centrepiece of National Science Week activities" (quote from the ASF website). The national website contains highlights of this year’s Science Week activities, links to other science-based sites and a reminder of the dates for next year’s Science Week: WIN! Saturday 16 – Sunday 24 August 2003.

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 3 Features SHAPING THE STATISTICIANS OF THE FUTURE

The National Education Services classroom." She has now set about resources. With this aim in mind, the Unit (NESU) of the Australian applying a similarly rigorous NESU maintains a presence at Bureau of Statistics aims to promote approach to updating the Website for National and State teacher knowledge and understanding of, Indigenous Statistics Education conferences, particularly and access to, statistics for teachers, (WISE) pages using output from the Mathematics and Geography librarians and students in Australian 2001 census. conferences, delivering presentations schools. For the last three years, the unit has directly to teachers wherever The work of the unit focusses used the internet as the primary possible; and conducts three direct primarily on enabling teachers to medium for delivery of its work and mail campaigns each year. make better use of statistics across a is currently maintaining around 500 The success of the strategy is evident. range of subject streams in a pages of information on the web Usage statistics for the ABS’s website classroom context. To achieve this including over 150 lesson plans. The indicate increasing use of the goal the unit takes a strategic lesson plans form the basis of Education Services area of the site approach in servicing the schools projects which aim to increase usage with hits peaking at 68,000 in the sector. of particular ABS datasets or month of May 2002 and schools are publications in the education sector. Staff in the unit work with teachers still among the ABS' best customers Each series has its own explanatory on the Teacher Release to Industry for flagship hard copy publications page through which lesson plans can Program (TRIP) to produce such as Year Book Australia and be accessed or teachers can find what curriculum activities and lesson Social Trends. they are looking for by Key Learning plans that support the use of statistics Area. To view the curriculum So where to from here? The NESU in classrooms. The ABS has been materials visit the ABS website on has traditionally targeted teachers as involved in the TRIP program since www.abs.gov.au, click 'Education' on a way of getting students interested its inception in 1991 and since then, the left navigation bar then 'Teaching in statistics, but recently more effort 18 projects have benefited from the Tools and Classroom Activities' has been made to attract students special knowledge and expertise that under the 'For School Teachers' directly. A Tale of Two Worlds teachers bring with them. "The TRIP heading. interactive CD ROM was produced program helps ensure that materials in the lead up to the 2001 Census, a produced in the NESU meet Also available on the internet is a collaboration with a school internet curriculum requirements, reflect mathematics statistics publication software provider, MyInternet Ltd, current teaching practice and entitled 'Statistics - A Powerful Edge' provide useful classroom resources," (ABS catalogue number 1331.0). This has seen the production of four says Soo Kong, head of the unit. publication was specially produced interactive statistical education for use in mathematics and IT study projects and a project is currently One of this year's TRIP teachers, Sue streams in schools covering a range underway to get Census statistics McArthur, a media teacher from of topics related to data collection, used as widely as possible in Newcomb Secondary College in processing and analysis and the uses Australian schools. Geelong, has been working on the of statistical information. It has Australia Now lesson plan series "We'll certainly be looking at doing proven to be a very useful resource which is used in conjunction with more for the students," says Soo for teachers and due to increasing information from Australia Now on Kong. "In the end, it's them that we demand, a second edition was the web. Her focus has been on are here for and if we can get them published in early 1999. A series of enhancing the useability of existing interested in statistics now, then there downloadable lesson plans pages and adding new activities to be will be benefits down the track. Not accompanies this publication which used in previously unexplored just for them, but for the ABS too. We teachers can readily use in the learning areas such as materials will need skilled workers in the classroom. technology. "When I arrived in the future and right now those skilled unit at the beginning of the year", Limited time for searching out new workers are in our schools." says Sue, "there were lots of really material is an ongoing problem for Readers interested to find out more good material already there. But for teachers in Australian schools and about the resource materials teachers searching the web with one which has led the ABS National available or any other information limited time, materials don't just Education Services Unit to should contact the National have to be relevant and of high implement a promotional campaign Education Services Unit on 1800 623 quality, they have to be easy to find aimed at raising awareness among 273. and instantly recognisable as teachers of the availability of ABS something that can be used in the statistics and related education Eden Brinkley

4 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 ISI 2005

55TH SESSION OF THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE (ISI)

5-12 April 2005 Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre

www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005

Dennis Trewin, Australian Statistician, ISI President and Preliminary preparations are well underway for the Chair of the 2005 ISI National Organising Committee, 2005 ISI Session. The venue for the Session, the Sydney has extended an invitation to all those interested in Convention and Exhibition Centre, has been confirmed statistical matters to attend the 55th Session of the ISI to and will provide an ideal location for the Session. be held at the Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre Located on the shores of Darling Harbour, the venue has from 5 to 12 April 2005. The 2005 ISI Session will magnificent views of the city and is only a short walk to provide an arena for the exchange of ideas and the Central Business District and a wide range of hotels knowledge on statistics among participants. and restaurants. Did you know that this is only the second ISI Session to An exciting social program is also being developed be held in Sydney and the first to be held in the which will provide delegates, colleagues and Southern Hemisphere since 1981? accompanying persons the opportunity to relax among friends and experience some of Sydney’s unique and 2005 is also a very important year for Australian varied attractions. statistics as it is the centenary of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ISI Session will be one of the The National Organising Committee (NOC) for the 2005 major events in celebrating the centenary of Australia’s ISI Session, comprising Dennis Trewin (Chair), national statistical agency. members of the ABS and representatives from the Statistical Society of Australia (Nick Fisher and Eden A diverse and cutting edge scientific program is being Brinkley), held their last meeting on 8 November 2002. developed for the Session, which will provide an Items for discussion at the meeting included promotion opportunity for delegates to exchange innovative ideas, plans, scientific and social program proposals and develop new links and discuss current trends and sponsorship and exhibition plans. developments in the statistical world. The Session will also provide special days of interest for those concerned In 2000, Sydney hosted the “best ever” Olympic Games with particular topics, for example population and and the NOC is dedicated to maintaining that tradition demography matters. Details of the program will be for the 2005 Session of the ISI. finalised in collaboration with the Scientific Program Further information on the programs and arrangements Committee and any updated information will be for the Session will be included in future SSAI included on the 2005 ISI Session website: newsletters and updated regularly on the 2005 ISI www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 website.

REGISTER YOUR INTEREST NOW! You can register your interest in attending the conference on the Session website www.tourhosts.com.au/isi2005 or by contacting the Conference Managers, Tour Hosts, GPO Box 128, Sydney 2001. NEWSFLASH Several sponsorship and exhibition opportunities exist in association with the 2005 ISI Session. Please contact the Conference Managers if you are interested in learning about the sponsorship and/or exhibition opportunities available.

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 5 6 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 Meet some recently Member accredited SSAI member members Advantageadvantage Frankie Chan, GStat My background is in actuarial brings a new benefit to studies and I am an Associate of the SSAI members Institute of Actuaries of Australia. My interests lie in modelling the asset price of financial derivatives as Insurance Ð Are you paying too much? well as modelling stochastic Member Advantage Insurance Services Pty Ltd provides SSAI volatility underlying market members with a range of insurance products at competitive variables. I am also interested in prices. research into development of actuarial statistics. Insurance available: ● Home and Contents insurance ● Trauma insurance Wau Man Li, AStat ● Motor Vehicle insurance ● Income Protection I started my statistical analysis career ● Life Insurance ● Professional Indemnity in the Brain Dynamic Centre of ● Travel insurance **Quotes and Policy available On-line** Westmead Hospital. My major work was to use statistical methods to For more information, please call 1300 853 352 or visit compare and identify patient groups www.member-advantage.com/ssai/member_benefits (Schizophrenia, Parkinsons and ADHD) by brain wave and skin conductance variables. Currently Discounted Primus Residential and Business my work in NSW Department of Phone Plan Housing is to deal with database and GREAT SAVINGS ON CALL CONNECTIONS! statistical computing. ● Up to 40% OFF* Local and Fixed to Mobile Calls ● Up to 50% OFF* Long Distance Calls Helen Parker, GStat ● Up to 70% OFF* International Calls I studied mathematics and statistics ● No joining, cancellation or monthly fees at the University of Queensland. I graduated BSc (Hons) Class 1 in To start saving on your residential or business calls, contact 2001, with my Honours thesis on Member Advantage Services on Multiple Imputation. I was a Cadet 1300 853 352 or visit www.member- for ABS during my Honours year advantage.com/ssai/member_benefits to download an and I have been working at ABS application form. since graduating. I will be commencing PhD studies at the * Comparison compiled from publicly available information 8th University of Glasgow on Optimal August 2002 and subject to change. Design in January 2003. Hertz Car Hire Anne F. Young, AStat GREAT SAVINGS on car rental rates for business or leisure. I am currently the Project Statistician for the Australian PLUS forget the queues and paperwork with FREE Longitudinal Study on Women’s membership to Hertz #1 Club Gold. Saving you $50 per Health at the University of year. Newcastle. I completed my PhD in 1999 and won the EJG Pitman prize For more information and to obtain the Customer Discount at the 15th ASC in 2000. My Plan (CDP) number, please call Member Advantage Services research interests include on 1300 853 352 or visit www.member- longitudinal analysis of linked advantage.com/ssai/member_benefits survey and administrative data.

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 7 Branch Reports

NEW SOUTH WALES and training of a critically thinking parametric seasonal Kendall test, clinician." generalised linear models, generalised least squares methods for serially We learned that, in the first year of the NSW Branch news correlated data and generalised additive Network, 175 GPs had belonged, and In March, the NSW Branch held its 54th models, were compared. The second that this had grown to 300 in the second Annual General Meeting. The H.O. example was on the effect of Keepit year. A lower proportion of older GPs Lancaster Lecture was presented by Dam on the temperature regime of the belonged to the Network than existed in Professor Eugene Seneta of the Namoi River and its impact on fish the Australian population. Older University of Sydney, who spoke on "In spawning. Hugh showed that periodic patients seemed to be more common Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry regression could be used to model the than in the general community. Oliver Lancaster AO FAA: 1913 – water temperature over time. The Consequently, information drawn from 2001." A report on this meeting variability in the peaks, due to water the Network may not provide an appeared in the last Newsletter. releases from the dam, was modelled by entirely representative sample of all including the amount and temperature The April Meeting was addressed by Mr possible information. The Network of the water release. Additional analyses Kevin Price, of BHP Steel, Port Kembla. does make anonymous data records also showed that water temperatures Kevin's topic was "Alternative available to some researchers. Hypotheses". In May we heard from Dr changed up to 100 km from the dam Piet de Jong, of Trowbridge Consulting, It was an interesting talk, and I'll be keen and then plateaued. Graphs of the Sydney. Piet spoke on "From Academic to find out if my GP belongs to the water temperature along the river to Practical Statistics". Network. I'm all in favour of GPs overlaid with ranges of temperatures for having decision support. But I do find the different types of fish spawning Come wintry June, members ventured myself wondering how valid will be any clearly showed why there was a forth to hear Geoffrey Sayer (General conclusions drawn from the data from decrease in the number of fish around. Manager – Research, Health this sample of GPs, as it's most definitely The third example was to expose us to Communication Network) speak on a self-selected sample. zero inflated counts, and estimating the "The General Practice Research prevalence of mussels along a stretch of The prize for the longest title of the year Network: A Statistical Check-Up”. Ken the Williams River in the Hunter Valley went to our speaker for July, Hugh Russell takes up the story: was used as the example. Jones. His prize-winning effort was Does your GP use the computer to write "The trials and tribulations of life as a All in all Hugh provided us with a very prescriptions? Mine does, and it's great: biometrician at the Department of Land interesting talk, including some pretty I don't have to remember the dosages of and Water Conservation – applications impressive photographs and, as one all the tablets I take, the pharmacist has of environmental statistics". Caro member of the audience told me later, no problem reading the GP's writing, Badcock reports on that meeting: managed to bridge the gap between and it takes only a few seconds for the academia and industry by including real In July we were exposed to the trials and scripts to be written. life examples of complex data analyses. tribulations of life as a biometrician in We were told that Geoffrey’s the Department of Land and Water Accreditation has been a topic for organisation is believed to be the first Conservation by Hugh Jones, Senior spirited debate within the NSW Branch such network in Australia. Its role is to Biometrician. Hugh started by telling us recently. So we seized on the improve medical records, and it is that the DLWC is responsible for opportunity to let the various points of assumed that demonstrable managing the state’s natural resources view be heard at our August meeting. improvements could be made in health in a ‘sustainable’ manner. His greatest The principal speakers were Dr Philip through better communication, challenge is to provide support across a McCloud and Dr Alun Pope. John Best information use and information large and diverse organisation that and Ken Russell take up the story: transfer. When a GP belonging to the covers areas such as water quality, Network writes a prescription on At the August meeting Phil McCloud hydrology, hydrogeomorphology, his/her computer, the record goes and Alun Pope gave their views on vegetation mapping, landscape immediately to the Network's computer. accreditation. Phil reminded us that the processes and ecology. As well as recording the prescriptions details of how to apply, requirements, written, the plan is (it wasn't clear to me Most projects consist of observational etc were available on the Society's whether this has already been type studies like environmental website. He said that accreditation aided implemented) that the doctor must give monitoring programs that may contain the maintenance of a statistical reasons for the prescriptions and is given vast amounts of spatial and longitudinal profession and gave more credibility to decision support. This can be something data. Hugh shared three examples of public utterances on statistical matters. as simple as the statement "Antibiotics data problems with us. The first Employers could have more confidence are not indicated for the treatment of example, detection of long term trends, in hiring and accepting reports etc from influenza in an otherwise healthy was illustrated using data of salinity in accredited members. Currently there are person". In Geoffrey's words, "Decision the Murray-Darling Basin. The various 152 accredited members. If accredited support does not replace the experience methods of analysis, including non- members become valued this would

8 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 reflect well on the Society. Before The same notice is in the Scandinavian array of national and international accreditation is discarded it should be Journal of Infectious Diseases. Both this and guests to come to Melbourne to given a thorough trial as it has taken the European Journal of Surgery are exchange ideas on this powerful some time to put in place. Phil published by the Stockholm office of method. In the opening address the mentioned that one Government Taylor and Francis. inventor, Professor Ker-Chau Li of Department now has it written into UCLA, illustrated how sliced inverse A Members' Forum was held in legislation that advice must come from regression can, almost magically it September, and accreditation featured an accredited statistician. seems, select variables in a generalised fairly prominently at that. We're grateful non-linear regression setting. Then Alun thought we were doing a public that Nick Fisher (wearing his SSAI Professor Ursula Gather of Dortmund service or performing an altruistic act if President's hat as well as the NSW described a robust version of SIR, the community could be told who was a Branch Member chapeau) was able to called DAME — the choice of name competent statistician. Like Phil he find the time to attend. The Branch will being no surprise to students of thought accreditation was good for the make some suggestions for human longevity. Various speakers Society (helped it to get a higher profile). improvements to the accreditation described theoretical underpinnings, Accreditation seems valued by other process to the Accreditation Committee. professions and so why not statistics? generalisations (e.g. to functional data), Accredited members might be better Many of you will have noticed the rival methods and applications (e.g. to able to arrange indemnity insurance, recent absence of the Statistical Squirrel time series and genetic data). The arrange professional development from these pages. Impending paternity Victorian Branch made a modest courses, use accreditation in self had restricted the time available to him, financial contribution to the workshop. promotion activities and differentiate, and now that it's no longer impending It was disappointing to see how few say, from a computer professional. (we understand that he has a darling Melbourne statisticians took Many would agree that it is good to daughter), we're not sure when he'll be advantage of this opportunity to listen work to an ethical code. Are there few back. to a stellar field of speakers. Bob Staudte and his team are to be G.Stats because this type of accreditation The NSW Branch holds an annual congratulated for organising such a serves the same purpose as a degree? presentation by doctoral students, one stimulating meeting. The number of accredited members is from each University. This is now in its currently too small to have much third year, under the enthusiastic There have been several changes in the impact. direction of Frederick Osman. The Victorian statistical scene recently. The Discussion from the floor raised Branch is delighted to announce that the Department of Statistics at RMIT questions such as does industry want Awards will now be known as the J.B. University has been amalgamated accredited members (were they asked?), Douglas Awards, in recognition of the with the Department of Mathematics, does the Society as a whole need to raise distinguished service to Statistics and and a South African operations its profile, can we interest non- statistical education by Professor Jim researcher, Professor John Hearne, has traditional statisticians such as Douglas. Jim is a past President of the been appointed Head of the new psychological statisticians? The decision Branch and a Life Member of the Society. department. The former Head of to award accreditation seems arbitrary He will make the initial presentations on Statistics, Dr Peter Smith, is now the to some. One speaker stated that he was 27th November. A full report on the Acting Head of the School of Creative in favour of accreditation, but his own Awards, and on the Annual Dinner that Media at RMIT. Peter enjoys a dual experience had been disappointing: had will follow them, will appear in the next career as statistician and artist. he known how critical the 'examining Newsletter. Members who attended ASC 12 at panel' would be, he would have been Monash University in July 1994 would Ken Russell much more careful with his application. have viewed an exhibition of Peter’s Another discussant stated that unique artwork incorporating statisticians needed to make it clear to VICTORIA statistical notation, graphics and the general public that bad data analysis themes. Fima Klebaner, for many years will hurt them. at the University of Melbourne, has Victorian Branch news accepted the Chair of Statistics at After the meeting, Paul Hutchison On October 3 and 4 the Department of Monash University with a mandate to advised in writing (we're sounding Statistical Science at La Trobe develop financial probability and more like an RSS meeting here): University hosted a workshop on statistics. Dr John Taffe, a Victorian In the instructions to authors in the sliced inverse regression (SIR) in the Branch Councillor formerly lecturing European Journal of Surgery, the following tastefully renovated Institute For at Swinburne University, has appears: "If statistical data are provided, Advanced Study in the northern completed his doctorate and has the authors are requested to submit an corner of the Bundoora campus. transferred to the Monash Medical official statement issued by a certified Through sheer force of personality, Centre. He works as a statistician in the statistician (with a proper affiliation) hard work and a go-get-it attitude, Bob Centre for Developmental Psychiatry regarding the validity of methods used.” Staudte persuaded an impressive and Psychology in the Department of

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 9 Optimal Designs for Choice Experiments Associate Professor Deborah Street, of the University of Technology, Sydney, gave a very interesting talk entitled “Optimal Designs for Choice Experiments” to the July Meeting of the Victorian Branch of the Statistical Society. A choice experiment consists of a number of choice sets, each set consisting of a number of choices each described by a set of attributes. Respondents are asked to choose their SIR cast members, from L to R: Brenton Clarke, Louis Ferre, Laurie Davies, preferred option from each set. It is of Lixing Zhu, Claudia Becker, Ursula Gather, Bing Li, Megu Ohtaki, Bob Staudte. interest to determine which attributes Photo courtesy of Megu Ohtaki. are the most important, whether there are joint effects and how the choice sets Psychological Medicine in the School (OECD) initiated a major research should be constructed. of Psychology, Psychiatry and project in the late 1990s, the Program Psychological Medicine in the Faculty for International Assessment (PISA). To begin with Associate Professor Street of Medicine, Nursing and Health This project operates among the talked about the important case where Sciences at Monash University!! Dr OECD's contributing countries, along all attributes have only two levels and Alan Veevers, member and former with a few non-OECD countries, and is each choice set consists of two choices. The multinomial logit model is used in Leader of the Production Process designed to generate high quality which the probability that T is Improvement Group at CSIRO, has indicators of educational outcomes, ij preferred in a choice set T , T , …,T is decided to hang up his computer and and to relate these to various student- i1 i2 im given by an associated parameter p don his boots, because in retirement he level, school-level and system-level ij divided by the sum of all the associated intends to improve his bushwalking factors. A sample of 15-year-olds is parameters πin the choice set. handicap. Alan worked in the areas of tested in the language of instruction in quality and reliability, appropriately so each country, to determine levels of For main effects the D-optimal design because his professional contributions 'reading literacy', 'mathematical when all the π’s are the same consists of exhibited both these characteristics. Dr literacy' and 'scientific literacy' (and a all pairs with all attributes different. Caroline Finch, member of a well- test of generalised 'problem-solving' is On the other hand if we just want to known Victorian statistical family, has to be added). test for the interaction effect then the been appointed Head of the Victorian design should not include the pairs State Trauma Registry. Caroline is a The first results from the PISA 2000 with all attributes different. For the sports injury epidemiologist based in main study will be published in situation where main effects and the Department of Epidemiology and December 2002. Further reports will interaction effects are of interest then Preventive Medicine at Monash be published as more detailed the optimal design has all pairs University, and in January was analysis takes place. PISA is a occurring equally often. appointed Editor-in-Chief of the longitudinal study, with testing Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. planned to occur at three-yearly If there are more than two attributes intervals. The next round of testing then some restrictions need to be The Victorian Branch extends its will occur in 2003. Some of the major imposed. Associate Professor Street sympathies to the family and friends of challenges of the PISA project are: the and her co-workers assume that pairs the two Monash University students, with m attributes different appear William Wu and Steven Chan, logistics involved in coordinating such a complex project across a large equally often and show that for tragically killed whilst attending an estimating main effects the D and A econometrics tutorial on October 21. number of countries; developing comparable test instruments across optimal designs occur for pairs with all Geoff Laslett 40+ countries; sampling, weighting attributes different. For estimating and variance estimation; item main effects and two factor interactions the D- and A- optimal The PISA Project analysis and scaling; quality designs consists of pairs with (k+1)/2 Dr Ross Turner of the Australian monitoring; and scale construction attributes different when k, the number Council for Educational Research and data products. of attributes is odd, and pairs with k/2 addressed the June meeting of the In his presentation, Ross described the and (k/2+1) attributes different when k Victorian Branch. PISA context and some of the results, is even. For example, for 8 attributes The Organisation for Economic and discussed some of the statistical the number of pairs required is 128 and Cooperation and Development challenges. 16,128 pairs respectively.

10 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 for assessing the credit-worthiness of refusing to do business with a bank customers. Originally the idea customer assessed as likely to default was limited to the screening of on a particular type of loan may give applicants for loans, but it is now way to an approach of offering the finding application in a variety of other customer a different product more areas. To a lending institution, the consistent with his or her credit risk event of a customer paying off a loan or profile, ideally to the mutual benefit of credit card debt early is just as much a the bank and the customer. problem to be avoided as is the event of John Taffe a customer defaulting (failing to repay Recent speakers at Victorian Branch a loan). And banks are now interested Meetings: Joanne Kelly and John Taffe. in estimating not only whether, but also Photo courtesy of Brian Phillips. when, such unfortunate events will QUEENSLAND occur. Joanne introduced us to the To reduce the number of pairs a issues involved in credit scoring and to Statistics and History regular fractional factorial design can some of the modelling methods During Joe Gani’s September visit to the be used and the pairs obtained by currently being developed by banks University of Queensland (visiting the pairing each row with its foldover run and financial institutions. Department of Mathematics), the Qld with duplicates discarded. Such a In the situation of deciding whether a branch was fortunate to have Joe as a design has D-efficiency of 100% for customer applying for a loan was guest speaker. estimating main effects and reduces likely to repay it, banks used to rely on the number of pairs required from 128 The main emphasis in Joe’s presentation the expertise of senior employees, who was on highlighting the relationship pairs to 8 pairs. An example was given would take into account and weigh the showing that regularity was essential. between statistics and the course of relative importance of various pieces of history, the most obvious example being For estimating main effects and two information according to what they factor interactions a recursive the use of population censuses to had learned from experience. The use establish taxation norms. Joe reminded construction based on adding a small of statistical models has enabled more number of suitable generators to us of the census conducted by William I people to be more easily trained for the and the collation of the Doomsday designs of resolution V results in assessment of credit risk. designs with high efficiency. For Book. William I endeavored to achieve a relatively high level of accuracy and example with 8 attributes a 1120 pair Regression-based models evolved information was collated in a fair design gives efficiency of 99.97% while naturally out of early ‘scorecard’ amount of detail. Of course the main a 256 pair design gives efficiencies of approaches. An advantage of their use motive was to tax his subjects according 92.96%. is consistency, in that the same range of information is taken into account in all to the information gathered. Associate Professor Street then cases. These models typically take into Joe focused on five main topics: explained how these results could be account information in a 12-month extended to situations where there are ‘sampling window’, a period before a 1) The Accuracy Of Statistics – The more than two choices in the choice set, loan is issued, and a 12-month focus here was on governments to situations where some attributes ‘performance window’, after the loan having accurate records and have more levels than other attributes is issued. Various predictor variables methods of collating relevant data and also described work that explored are assessed for their effects on the that is independent of the actual whether choice consistency depended odds of the outcome event (default, government in office – “prevents the on having more attributes different in early repayment), and logistic government from fiddling the the choices within a choice set and the regression models for different groups records”. Refuting spurious tradeoff between statistical efficiency of customers are developed. demographic statements with ‘the and respondent efficiency. Finally she hard evidence’ was also indicated some directions for further Joanne described several techniques in demonstrated with Joe’s example of research. current use. She observed that models using the country of birth are continually being developed, and information for Australians. Neil Diamond that the main focus of the exercise is 2) Optimal Presentation Of Statistics – gradually changing. The shift is The main message (with no New uses of statistics in the towards more general models of surprises) was visual representation credit lending process profitability, as financial institutions of information can have a dramatic Joanne Kelly works in the area of credit begin to realize that “one can, at least in impact. scoring with the ANZ, and shared principle, make a customer from any some of her experiences at the August type of applicant. It is simply a 3) Modelling And Testing Statistical meeting of the Victorian Branch. Credit question of charging the appropriate Hypotheses – The simulated history scoring involves creating algorithms rate of interest.” So the old approach of of the settlement of the Polynesian

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 11 Branch Reports

islands was a fascinating example Walter and Eliza Hall Institute for Environmental Statisticians: used to illustrate the inference that Medical Research in Melbourne and Missing, Inaction? could be obtained via modelling and more recently as a student with the For the Qld branch’s October meeting, testing statistical hypotheses. Cooperative Research Centre for the Professor David Fox from the Simulated modelling was used to Discovery of Genes for Common Department of Civil and Environmental calculate the probability of extinction Human Diseases and the Centre for Engineering at the University of of the various island groups of Bioinformation Science at the Australian Melbourne spoke about his experiences Polynesians by incorporating National University in Canberra. as an environmental statistician and the information on migration patterns. opportunities and challenges in Firstly, Jess outlined the biological and Environmetrics. 4) Fertility And Survival – This section chemical processes involved in of Joe’s talk focused on how changes microarray technology. Microarray 'Environmetrics' is now an established in fertility rates, the age of child experiments are currently being discipline and sits comfortably bearing and so on, has influenced employed to study gene expression alongside other 'metrified' disciplines and continues to influence levels in diverse areas ranging from such as pedometrics, biometrics, Australia’s (and the world’s) future medical to agricultural applications. For econometrics, and chemometrics. history. instance, scientists may be interested in Curiously, few academic institutions 5) Research And Development In finding those genes with different have incorporated Environmetrics into Economic And Historical Progress – expression levels in healthy and their teaching programs with most Finally, Joe concluded with cancerous cells. Many thousands of 'environmental statistics' being provided highlighting Australia’s Research genes may be studied at once which through generic service units offered by and Development (R & D) results in some challenging statistical Statistics departments or 'in-house' expenditure in a worldwide setting problems. Issues related to image variants of the same. and also how R & D in Australia analysis, quality control, normalisation, David focused on three main topics: is funded via business, measuring differential expression and 1. Why Environmetrics? Commonwealth and State clustering were discussed. government and the private/non- As a society we demand certain things In particular, several of many available profit organisations. Again, our from our environment. We have a pretty image analysis packages were history in the future depends on our long wish list that includes us wanting compared. This revealed considerable investment in R & D. clean air, clean soils, good quality variation between packages with the drinking water, and so the list goes on. Joe’s presentation certainly highlighted result that different biological inferences We are concerned not only about that statistics has much to contribute to may be drawn. Jess also outlined simple human health but ecosystem health, the history. plots to detect artifacts such as intensity management of natural resources and saturation problems and pointed out BIOGRAPHY: the sustainability of human activities on that these image analysis programs Joe Gani is a Fellow of the Australian a global scale. All of these sciences were not all equal when it came to Academy of Science, one of the require quantification/metrification and highlighting these problems. Also, highest scientific accolades in the hence ‘environmetrics’. spatial and problems with estimating country. He is one of the four trustees background levels were noted. Some environmental problems, like of the Applied Probability Trust, and salinity and algal blooms, are proving co-founder and Editor (1964-1989) of Next, Jess outlined methods for finding quite elusive. Why? The complexities of the Journal of Applied Probability. He differentially expressed genes such as t- the systems involved encompass has worked at a number of places tests and the B-statistic. She also briefly multiple cases and multiple effects. They including the University of Sheffield, described clustering techniques, which are characterised by non-linear the CSIRO and the Australian scientists often use to group genes that relationships and numerous feedback National University. behave similarly. loops and time scales vary across the Finally, a number of open research components involved. Statistical Analysis of Microarrays questions, that are currently intriguing 2. Challenges And Opportunities In At our August meeting, Jess Mar statisticians, were posed. These include Environmental Research presented a colourful introduction to the taking into account the huge number of Often, environmental phenomena have statistical analysis of microarrays. Jess is tests by adjusting for multiple testing; unexpected timing and spatial location currently based at the University of finding better ways to cluster genes and Queensland, where she is undertaking but have predictable consequences. tissues to search for biologically an Honours degree in Statistics with Certain environmental incidents are meaningful substructures; and better Prof Geoff McLachlan. Jess's characterised by discontinuities in ways of designing microarray introduction to microarray statistics smooth trends and sometimes we need experiments. began almost 2 years ago, while to deal with unanticipated working as a vacation scholar at the Peter Baker consequences of deliberate actions (eg

12 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 Continued

CFCs, introduced pests). It is these temporal variability, ranked set turned to the real topic of the talk, a pressures of humans interacting with sampling, multi-criteria analysis and a discussion of the growth of the chick the environment that provides big plethora of other techniques should embryo brain. He and his co-author, opportunities for environmental bode well for our profession. Mary E. Desmond of the Biology statistics. Department, also from Villanova, BIOGRAPHY: recently had a paper accepted for Where can statisticians get involved? David Fox is currently on secondment publication. Michael presented his Quantifying risk assessments and from CSIRO Land and Water and is analysis of her data, comparing and integrating the triple bottom line based at Melbourne University where contrasting experimental chicks, whose (social/economic/ecological) into these he is Professorial Fellow in the brains had undergone premature assessments; compliance monitoring for Department of Civil and Environmental cauterization, with control chicks, both human health and ecosystem Engineering. He has held academic and whose brains had developed naturally. health; setting statistically verifiable research positions at Exeter University, His presentation ventured into Hodges- standard or guidelines values for Curtin University, Monash University, Lehmann estimators and, subsequently, particular indicators of ‘health’; University of Colorado, and the into bootstrapping and resampling incorporating uncertainty into all University of Wyoming. He has also techniques. aspects of natural resource operated his own statistical consultancy management. David also emphasised To cap off Michael’s presentation, he in Australia and the United States and the crucial role of statisticians across the noted that while doing a web search on has appeared as an expert witness for four Ms of environmental management: Hodges and Lehmann, he had come the WA Police Department and measurement, monitoring, modeling across the name Daniel Ellsberg of Melbourne Water. He has published in and management. Pentagon Papers and Watergate fame. the statistical, medical, operations He gave a historical review of those research, and natural resources David recommended Bjorn Lomborg’s times for the uninitiated, and soon literature. David is Director of the new book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”, wound up discussing what has become Adelaide Coastal Waters Study. where Lomborg (a statistician) questions known as the Ellsberg Paradox in some of the claims made by Bronwyn Harch decision theory. At that point, he enlisted environmentalists about the state of the the aid of the audience, asking them to world’s environmental health. Basically, play the role of non-statisticians, trying Lomborg questions the data sources and WESTERN to guess what strategies “lay people” how this data was analysed and AUSTRALIA would choose for various gambling interpreted. situations. Using similar paradoxes, the 3. Case Studies If I only had a brain audience, either unwittingly or with expert acting ability, demonstrated how David then went on to highlight some The presentation given at the August cavalierly and disdainfully they case studies of major environmental meeting of the WA Branch of the SSA dispensed with the axioms of projects that he was personally involved was made by Dr. Michael L. Levitan, probability. with and had the environmental currently visiting the Maths and Stats statistician as an integral member of the Department of the University of Finally, after having observed the team. In some cases the statistician was Western Australia. Although Michael’s vagaries of Michael’s thrusts and parries the leader of the project team. Some of permanent position is at Villanova throughout his presentations, there were the studies David has been involved University in Pennsylvania in the some members of the audience who with include research programs in Port States, it can be assumed that he has a suspected that perhaps Michael had Philip Bay, the Gippsland Lakes, the strong affinity for Western Australia chosen the title of his talk for a more North West Shelf and Adelaide Coastal since this has been his fifth academic appropriate reason! Waters. leave to Perth. His talk had the rather curious title, “If I Only Had a Brain.” Counting leaves on a tree and David concluded by outlining that there The title alone had the potential of neurons in the brain is a growing awareness that the exposing Michael to the exuberant What have the following got in assessment of environmental condition utterances and jibes of the audience. common: (i) The Hindu epic the is an imprecise science which invariably However, exercising their usual Mahabharata; (ii) brain cell loss; and (iii) requires the application of robust statisticians’ incredible self-control and tomato salad? If you know the answer, statistical methodology. He emphasised stoicism, they held themselves in check then you were probably a member of that statisticians must be part of the with the exception of one or two the (sizeable) audience who turned up environmental debates occurring stalwarts, who just could not restrain to hear Professor Adrian Baddeley's talk throughout Australia. David also themselves. to the WA Branch in September. suggested that the current interest in Environmental Risk Assessment, power Michael began with a brief foray into the Adrian's presentation was concerned analysis, complex systems science, Wizard of Oz from whence this phrase with stereology (a process for obtaining statistically verifiable limits, spatio- was derived. Immediately thereafter, he information about a 3-dimensional

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 13 Branch Reports

object from a 2-dimensional image). He procedures common to all statistical reference to the use of K0, the "Kerwin explained that stereology can be thought investigations. These elements can be constant" and D, the "Dominik about in terms of classical sampling organized into a five-step process that statistic", included "homework" theory. (This is where the Mahabharata we label PPDAC [Problem, Plan, Data, exercises, and alluded to the depth of a entered proceedings. It contains a very Analysis, Conclusion]. Associated proof by probabilists. early example of sampling, where King with each of these steps are sub-steps The tests are based on two Rtuparna estimates the number of and appropriate language to describe characterisations of the uniform leaves on a tree on the basis of a sample them. distribution on (0,1). The first of a few twigs.) In his talk, based on joint work with his characterisation (at least among An interesting and important colleague R.W. Oldford, Jock discussed continuous distributions) of the U(0,1) 2 application of stereology involves the PPDAC process and some of the distribution is that E[X ] – E[X2:2] + 1/3 th counting the number of cells in the ramifications of describing statistical = 0, where Xk:n is the k order statistic in brain. It had long been accepted that the method in this way. He used the model a sample of size n, in other words X2:2 is brain progressively loses neurons (nerve of a project to reduce variation in the maximum of two observations. cells) with age. However, as Adrian alignment characteristics of trucks, The second characterisation is that 2 pointed out, the arguments in support of describing the thought processes which E[X ]=1/3 and E[X2:2] = 2/3. Kerwin this finding are dubious. Some of the he had followed in attempting to set also defined dual characterisations, problems with these arguments involve new standards for the quality of an based on 1–X which of course is U(0,1) a failure to account for variation in cell automated process. He also described iff X is U(0,1). size when estimating total cell numbers the difficulties he had encountered in He then formulated tests of Ho: U ~ teaching the engineers involved in the from thin slices of brain. In essence, big U(0,1) based on comparing estimates process how to tackle this problem. cells will be overrepresented in of appropriate quantities with their comparison to little cells in section He also briefly contrasted the way that a expected values using these planes. Adrian explained this using a statistician would approach this characterisations, and using large tomato salad analogy. Consider a mixed problem with the more enigmatic sample approximations via asymptotic salad with equal numbers of small green Scientific Method and with process theory. The observations in a random and large red tomatoes. Set this salad in improvement systems such as Six Sigma sample of size n=2N are paired into N jelly and cut a thin slice. This slice is and Statistical Engineering. successive disjoint pairs and the likely to intersect with more red than 1 n ∑ 2i-l 2i quantity –N i=lmax(U ,U ) is used to This was a very interesting talk, and 2 green tomatoes because of the size 1 ∑n estimate E[U2:2], and the mean – i=l Ui is engendered a lively discussion about N difference. 2 how statisticians, particularly in the used to estimate E[U ]. It was noted Adrian concluded his polished consulting area, go about their business. that the test is non-invariant to the presentation with comments on some choice of pairing. Kerwin prefers to outstanding problems (and take the observations in the (random) controversies) in stereology. A lively SOUTH AUSTRALIA order in which they arose. discussion followed. After the meeting, This was then generalised to the cases several members of the audience joined Goodness of fit tests for of testing H1: X~F where F is the speaker and Branch President for continuous distributions completely specified, and H2: X~F = dinner. At the September meeting, Kerwin F(x; λ) where F involves p unknown The restaurant was Vietnamese and the Morris, a fixture of the statistics parameters λ. The first case is easy, food tasty, but they didn't serve tomato department (in its various guises) of using X~F <=> U = F(X) ~ U(0,1), so Ui salad. the University of Adelaide for over 40 is simply replaced by F(Xi). Note that years, and who has taught many max(F(X2i-1),F(X2i)) = F(max(X2i-1,X2i)), What is a statistical method? branch members as undergraduates, since F is an increasing function. The presented an interesting talk on joint maximum likelihood estimates are For our October meeting, the branch work with Dominik Szynal of Lublin, (mostly) asymptotically normal, was fortunate in snaring Dr Jock Poland, on some goodness-of-fit tests although in irregular cases (for Mackay from the Institute for for continuous distributions. The talk example Pareto distributions in which Improvement of Quality and was casual and entertaining in typical the range of the variable depends on a Productivity, University of Waterloo, Kerwin style, as he quipped about the parameter) the asymptotic variance Canada who was visiting the CSIRO S-M test (following the trend of other matrix may be singular. The second quality group. Jock made us all think pairs of initials, from the x2 goodness case involves estimation of the about the basis of our discipline with a of fit test of Pearson and later Fisher, P- unknown parameters, and consequent very practical example of what statistical F, Neyman-Pearson N-P, to modification of the tests. In many cases method really is. Kolmogorov-Smirnov K-S). S-M could it turns out that the "Kerwin constant" He made the proposal that statistical be taken for Szynal-Morris or for K0 does not depend on the true value of method is a set of elements and "simple-minded". He also made λ, and in other cases the maximum

14 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 Continued likelihood estimate can be substituted Towards modelling streamflow in streamflow, uncertainty in estimation without changing the limiting ungauged catchments of catchment attributes and distribution of the test statistic. At the September meeting Barry Croke heterogeneity. Examples were given for each case, of the Integrated Catchment There are also data limitations, in Assessment and Management Centre using the exponential distribution. particular inadequate spatial and (iCAM) and Centre for Resource and temporal coverage. For good spatial Kathy Haskard Environmental Studies (CRES) at the ANU gave a talk titled: “Towards coverage there is a need to have gauges at less than the scale of the event, and CANBERRA modelling streamflow in ungauged catchments”. for good temporal coverage need to be able to record events on the scale of He explained that estimation of flow A brief future of forecasting minutes, so short intense events can be regimes in ungauged catchments is the At the August meeting, the Canberra properly recorded. Data errors reduce major problem facing hydrologists in branch enjoyed a very interesting talk order to be able to reliably estimate the the number of events of peak rainfall, given by Prof Rob Hyndman from the impacts of land use and management and increase the apparent number of Business and Economic Forecasting practices. Account needs to be taken of rainy days. Unit at Monash University, which is the geophysical attributes of a the only general forecasting research Another factor which influences runoff catchment (eg area, slope, soils) as well is the impact of forest cover on group in Australia and the largest in as vegetation cover and land evapotranspiration. Current models the world. He talked about forecasters’ management practices. A variety of typically underestimate variability in inauspicious beginning, dabbling with approaches have been tried in the past, the runoff coefficient as the impact of divination, sheep’s livers and vapour- which include: ridden caves in the mountains of only a few of the possible drivers can Greece; he went through the history of 1 Physics-based – these use be identified. Further, the influence of forecasting and finished forecasting the measured attributes at a fine scale, using daily rainfall data generally future of forecasting. and are then aggregated to results in an underestimate flows in catchment level. These models are very big events. Forecasting developed very rapidly in data intensive and so are sensitive the last 40 to 50 years, from exponential to errors in the data. In summary Barry said that a model smoothing in 1959 and ARIMAmodels suitable for predicting flow in in 1970 to non-parametric forecasting 2 Complex conceptual models. These ungauged catchments should be: in 1994. Credit risk, crime, climate, provide a good fit when calibrated, sensitive to the primary drivers of but have many parameters. clinical information systems, streamflow; able to be used on demography, finance, labour market, However they are impossible to catchments with limited climate and supply chain, telecommunications and regionalize, there being too much geophysical data; be applicable over a tourism are all areas of increasing interaction between parameters. wide range of catchments and application of forecasting. 3 Simple conceptual models. These climates. In forecasting the future of forecasting over simplify catchment response, The current position is far from this Rob said that the forecaster is going to but regionalisation is possible. need methods for large datasets like ideal. In order to achieve this goal, the density forecasting or quantile In the simple models effects on impact of data errors and limitations forecasting, methods for functional streamflow included vegetation cover, must be understood. data like the Lee-Carter method and soil moisture index. These combined with rainfall events He ended his talk with a quote from Sir forecasting functions rather than Josiah Stamp (1929): "The government observations and methods for multiple determined how much water flowed are very keen on amassing statistics. datasets, fast and accurate automatic into streams and when. They collect them, raise them to the nth algorithms for univariate series. He discussed the merits of previous power, take the cube root, and prepare examples of regionalisation of simple Rob said that there are more wonderful diagrams. But you must forecasting problems than forecasters models, IHACRES and SIMHYD. The SIMHYD model has been simplified never forget that every one of these can handle and he invited us to get from 17 to 7 parameters. It has daily figures comes in the first instance from involved in forecasting. He finished his timesteps, but parameters are the village watchman, who just puts presentation with a very nice phrase: optimized monthly. IHACRES has down what he damn well pleases." “A good forecaster is not smarter than been used for modelling stream flow in everyone else, he merely has his Web reference http://incres.anu. Australia, the USA and UK. Some ignorance better organised”. edu.au/icam/ problems in these models included Veronica Rodriquez lack of information in observed Ray Lindsay

SSAI Newsletter – November 2002 15 Australasian Conferences Society Secretaries

Central Council Australasian Genstat Conference 2002 http://www.ctru.suckland.ac.nz/educati President: Dr N.I. Fisher 4 – 6 December, 2002 on/trainwork/biowrksp.html Secretary: Mr R. Robertson Enquiries, Derrick Bennett Email: Abbey Beach Resort, Busselton, [email protected] Western Australia [email protected] or (+64 9) Information: http:/www.agric.wa. 373 7599 x4724. New South Wales President: A/Prof John Rayner gov.au/biometrics/genstat2002 or email Fourth Conference on Statistics in Secretary: Dr Ken Russell [email protected] Email: [email protected] Ecology and Environmental Monitoring Population Dynamics. Canberra Pre-Conference Workshop on Matrix President: Mr Geoff Lee The Interface between Models and Data Population Models Secretary: Ms Anna Poskitt 4 – 6 December 2002, Dunedin, 9 – 13 December, 2002 Email: [email protected] Dunedin, New Zealand New Zealand Victoria Information: For details, see President: Dr N. Diamond http://maths.otago.ac.NZ/SEEM4/or www.maths.otago.ac.nz/SEEM4 Secretary: Mr B. Fraser Email: [email protected] email [email protected] or email [email protected] South Australia Biostatistics Workshop New Zealand Statistical Association President: Dr Gary Glonek Secretary: Ms M. Swincer 5 – 6 December 2002 Conference 2003 Email: [email protected] University of Auckland, 2 – 4 July, 2003 New Zealand Massey University, Palmerston North Western Australia President: Dr Martin Hazelton More details about the workshop website will be at http://www- Secretary: Ms Jodie Thompson plus details of how to register can be ist.massey.ac.nz/stats/nzsa2003/ Email: [email protected] found on the Clinical Trials Research Unit Contact: Duncan Hedderley, website [email protected] Queensland President: Dr Tony Swain Secretary: Dr Peter Baker Overseas Conferences Email: [email protected] Section Chairs 4th Conference of Asian Regional SCRA2002-FIMIX: International Section (ARS) of the International Conference on Statistics, Combinatorics Statistics in the Medical Sciences Association for Statistical Computing and Related Areas and the Ninth Professor Terry Mills (IASC) International Conference of the Forum Email: [email protected] for Interdisciplinary Mathematics Statistics in the Biological Sciences 5-7 December, 2002 Dr Simon Barry Westin Chosun Beach Hotel in Busan, 21-23 December, 2002 Email: [email protected] Korea. Allahabad, India. Survey and Management Conference theme is 'e-Statistics for Information: Dr Robert Clark Information’ http://www.allduniv.edu/scra2002 Email: [email protected] Information: http://ars.ssu.ac.kr Statistical Education 8th Islamic Countries Conference on David Griffiths International Conference on Applied Statistical Sciences (ICCS-V111) Email: [email protected] Statistics, Actuarial Science and 21 – 24 December, 2002 Statistical Computing Financial Mathematics University of Bahrain, Bahrain. Associate Professor Kuldeep Kumar 17 – 19 December, 2002 Conference Theme: “Business, Email: [email protected] University of Hong Kong and The Hong Population, Environment and IT Industrial Statistics Kong Polytechnic University. Strategies of the Islamic World” Dr Aloke Phatak Organised by The Hong Kong Information: Dr Akram M Chaudhry, Email: [email protected] Polytechnic University, The University of email: [email protected] Young Statisticians Hong Kong. The co-organisers are Simon McGregor-MacDonald Hawaii International Conference on Email: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Statistics and Related Fields [email protected] Research Organisation, Peking University and The Chinese Academy of Sciences. 5 – 8 June, 2003, Sheraton Waikiki Hotel, Information: //web.hku.hk/~icaaf/ Honolulu Hawaii USA Further contact details for content.htm Submission Deadline: January 16, 2003 Society Secretaries and Sponsored by: University of Hawaii – West Oahu Section Chairs can be Web address http://www.hicstatistics.org obtained by contacting the Email address: [email protected] Society on (02) 6249 8266

16 SSAI Newsletter – November 2002