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Þÿgermany Sostpolitikincrisis:President Putin View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2015-06 þÿGermany s Ostpolitik in crisis: President Putin and Chancellor Merkel amid the Ukraine crisis Braun, Thomas L. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45819 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS GERMANY’S OSTPOLITIK IN CRISIS: PRESIDENT PUTIN AND CHANCELLOR MERKEL AMID THE UKRAINE CRISIS by Thomas L. Braun June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Michael Tsypkin Co-Advisor: Donald Abenheim Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2015 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS GERMANY’S OSTPOLITIK IN CRISIS: PRESIDENT PUTIN AND CHANCELLOR MERKEL AMID THE UKRAINE CRISIS 6. AUTHOR(S) Thomas L. Braun 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 set off the worst crisis between Russia and the West since the 1980s. In the wake of this event, a reunified Germany has emerged as the key leader to engage Russia on behalf of the West. The Crimean episode shattered the 1975 Helsinki foundation for the peaceful inviolability of Europe’s existing borders. The shock of the Russian intervention in Ukraine and the Crimean annexation destroyed the illusion of the German Ostpolitik since 1969 of perpetual entente with Moscow and challenged the European security order. This study examines historic German-Russian relations and Germany’s foreign policy, with an emphasis on Germany’s Russia Policy and post-1990 Ostpolitik. The evolution of policy from “change through rapprochement” to “change through trade” forms a special focus. Caught between an interest-led Realpolitik and a value-based Moralpolitik, Germany has changed its Russian statecraft since the Crimean annexation. The thesis examines this German policy transformation and presents its implications for Germany’s foreign policy amidst a growing German geopolitical power in Europe. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF international security, international relations, foreign policy, German foreign policy making, history of PAGES German-Russian relations, Ukraine crisis, Germany, Russia, Ostpolitik 197 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited GERMANY’S OSTPOLITIK IN CRISIS: PRESIDENT PUTIN AND CHANCELLOR MERKEL AMID THE UKRAINE CRISIS Thomas L. Braun Lieutenant Colonel, German Air Force Diploma, University of the German Armed Forces, Hamburg, 2000 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (EUROPE AND EURASIA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2015 Author: Thomas L. Braun Approved by: Michael Tsypkin, Ph.D. Thesis Advisor Donald Abenheim, Ph.D. Co-Advisor Mohammed M. Hafez, Ph.D. Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 set off the worst crisis between Russia and the West since the 1980s. In the wake of this event, a reunified Germany has emerged as the key leader to engage Russia on behalf of the West. The Crimean episode shattered the 1975 Helsinki foundation for the peaceful inviolability of Europe’s existing borders. The shock of the Russian intervention in Ukraine and the Crimean annexation destroyed the illusion of the German Ostpolitik since 1969 of perpetual entente with Moscow and challenged the European security order. This study examines historic German-Russian relations and Germany’s foreign policy, with an emphasis on Germany’s Russia Policy and post-1990 Ostpolitik. The evolution of policy from “change through rapprochement” to “change through trade” forms a special focus. Caught between an interest-led Realpolitik and a value-based Moralpolitik, Germany has changed its Russian statecraft since the Crimean annexation. The thesis examines this German policy transformation and presents its implications for Germany’s foreign policy amidst a growing German geopolitical power in Europe. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION................................................................2 B. RELEVANCE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE TOPIC.............................3 C. HYPOTHESIS..................................................................................................5 D. METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH DESIGN .........................................7 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .....................................................................................8 II. HISTORY OF GERMAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ................................................9 A. GERMAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS BEFORE 1945 .................................10 B. THE COLD WAR AND EMERGENCE OF A NEW OSTPOLITIK .......20 C. RUSSIA AND A REUNIFIED GERMANY ................................................38 III. GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY ...............................................................................57 A. UNDERSTANDING FOREIGN POLICY ..................................................59 1. Essentials on Foreign Policy ..............................................................60 2. Stakeholders of Foreign Policy .........................................................63 3. Power, Interests, and Identity ...........................................................65 B. GOVERNMENTAL DECISION-MAKING IN GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY ..........................................................................................................66 1. Role of the Bundeskanzleramt and Ministerial Authority ..............70 2. The Federal Foreign Office and Primacy of Foreign Affairs ........73 3. Parliament: The Role of German Bundestag and Bundesrat in Foreign Policy .....................................................................................75 4. “German Foreign Policy Is Peace Policy”—Norms, Interests, and Parameters ..................................................................................78 5. Germany’s Russia Policy ...................................................................84 C. CIVIL SOCIETY AND FOREIGN POLICY .............................................91 1. German Civil Society after Reunification ........................................92 2. Think Tanks and Mainstream Media on Foreign Affairs ..............96 3. German-Russian Interests Groups and Their Influence ..............100 IV. CASE STUDY: THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA ...........................................103 A. RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY ..................................................................111 1. Major Actors in Russian Foreign Policy: The Dominant Role of the Kremlin and the Siloviki .......................................................112 2. Parameters and Interests of Russian Foreign Policy ....................116 3. Domestic Influence on Foreign Policy in Russia ...........................122 B. EVOLUTION OF EVENTS IN THE UKRAINE CRISIS OF 2014 .......126 C. INTERNATIONAL AND GERMAN REACTIONS TO THE RUSSIAN ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA .................................................135 D. DOES PUTIN’S POWER PLAY PAY OFF? ...........................................142 V. THE END OF GERMANY’S OSTPOLITIK IN 2014? ........................................147 vii A. ROOT CAUSES AND THE EXTENT OF FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE ......................................................................................................151 B. AN END TO “RUSSIA FIRSTER”?..........................................................155 C. DIPLOMACY, SECURITY, AND VALUES ............................................157 VI. RETAINING CREDIBILITY
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