Enhancing NWS Extra-Tropical Coastal Hazard and Impact Forecasts

2017

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2017 MERI Conference: SuperSandy Storm Sandy: Five Years Later October 26-27th, 2017 Storm Nelson Vaz NOAA/National Weather Service, New York, NY Super National Weather Service

http://www.weather.gov/nyc

Enhancing NWS Extra-Tropical Coastal Hazard and Impact Forecasts

2017

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Super What’s Changed Since Sandy: Improving our Coastal Flooding Forecasts and Services

• Improve Understanding and Communication of coastal flooding and its impacts 2017 – Develop Inundation and Impact Graphics – Develop Impacts Catalog – Refine Minor, Moderate, and Major Flood Thresholds – Provide Impact Decision Support ServicesConference (IDSS) – Provide Education and Outreach to Public Safety Partners and Decision Makers Sandy • Improve Storm Surge Modeling (NCEP/NOS/Academia) – Probabilistic GuidanceStorm – Introduce Inundation – Incorporate FreshwaterSuper Rainfall and Wave Action

• Bolster real-time tide gauge network (USGS/Academia)

Enhancing NWS Extra-Tropical Coastal Hazard and Impact Forecasts • Enhancing Coastal Flood Forecasts • Improving Communication of Coastal2017 Impacts • Impact Decision Support Services Conference • Partnerships Sandy

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Super Enhancing Coastal Flood Forecasts

• Coastal Flood Watch, Warnings, Advisory and Statements 2017

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Super Extra-tropical Coastal Flooding Products • Coastal Flood Outlook (Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)) issued 2 to 7 days in advance...when there is 30% or greater confidence that expected coastal hazards will pose a serious threat to property and potentially life. 2017 • A Coastal Flood Watch is issued when tidal flooding or storm induced flooding, posing a serious threat to property and potentially life, along coastal areas is possible within the next 12 to 48 hours. (50 percent or higher confidence). Conference

• A Coastal Flood Warning is issuedSandy when tidal flooding or storm induced flooding, posing a serious threat to property and potentially life, is imminent or is expected along the coastal areas within the next 24-36 hours. (80% or higher confidence) Storm

• A Coastal Flood SuperAdvisory is issued when minor tidal flooding or storm induced flooding is occurring or expected within the next 24-36 hours. The minor flooding is more than just localized or marginal.

• Coastal Flood Statement issued in cases where minor coastal flooding is expected to be localized, with tidal benchmarks expected to be reached but not exceeded within the next 12-24 hours.

Coastal Flood Watch/Warning/Advisory Tidal Tables • Point Forecasts • Can be utilized with new tools!

2017

Where Conference

What Sandy When Storm

Super Impacts

Coastal Flooding Thresholds Minor (CF Advisory) Moderate (CF Warning) Major (CF Warning)

Picture

2017

Westport Lindenhurst New Haven • Low threat of property • Elevated threat of propertyConference • Significant threat to life and property. Hazard damage...and no direct threat to damage…with a risk to life if one places • 3-5+ ft of inundation in shoreline and other life. themselves in unneccesary danger. vulnerable areas. • 1 to 2 ft of inundation in • 2 to 3 ft of inundation in shoreline and • Minor to moderate inundation (2 to 3 ft) of shoreline and vulnerable areas. vulnerableSandy areas. surrounding coastal communities that normally • Minor to no inundation of surrounding do not experience coastal flooding. coastal communities. Storm

• A few shoreline and vulnerable • Several shoreline and vulnerable area • Evacuations will be necessary for the most Impact roadways and adjacentSuper home and businesses will experience vulnerable shoreline and coastal areas. properties will experience water inside. • Many coastal communities will experience shallow flooding. • Several low-lying coastal and shoreline damage…with some shoreline and flood prone roads will be closed. homes and businesses being destroyed. • A few cars may take on water or even • Many cars will likely be submerged or washed be destroyed. away. • Several sections of nearshore roads and escape routes will be impassable and a few could be washed out. • Flood waters may extend well inland in low lying areas. Improving Communication of Coastal Impacts • NWS Water level forecasts in MHHW • NWS Coastal Flood Webpage • Visualizing Coastal Impacts • Impacts Database 2017 • NOAA Inundation Viewer • NOAA Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper Conference

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Super MLLW vs MHHW

MLLW • Water level referenced to average of lower low tides. (Downward looking) • Used to chart water depth for maritime MHHW navigation.

MLLW MHHW 2017 • Water level referenced to average of higher high tides (Upward Looking) • Easier to conceptualize inundation • Height of water above high tide Conference• Ties in nicely with NOAA Inundation Viewer

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Super WFO New York NY Coastal Flooding Webpage

Coastal Flood Thresholds Impact Catalogs Impact Visualization Tools

2017

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Super Visualizing Coastal Impacts Impact Catalogs

http://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood#coastalbench

2017

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Minor, Moderate, Major flood thresholds Impacts Catalogs Top 20 Water Levels Exceedance Probabilities *Coordinated with EM’s, NOS, USGS* Visualizing Coastal Impacts NOAA Coastal Inundation Viewer http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

2017 http://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood#climo Conference

Sandy

Storm Use of Mapping

• Provide a general visualizationSuper of inundation from our NWS water level forecasts (tidal tables).

• Map sea level rise on top of mean higher high water (MHHW)

Caveats

• The digital elevation model used to map sea level rise does not incorporate a detailed pipe network analysis, or engineering grade hydrologic analysis (for example, culverts and ditches may not be incorporated resulting in incorrectly mapped areas). Visualizing Coastal Impacts Use NWS Water Level Forecasts… …and Impacts Catalog

2017 …with Inundation Viewer… Impacts at 3 ft MHHW in Jamaica Bay: • Inundation in Hamilton Beach • None for JFK Airport Conference Sandy

Storm When does JFK start flooding? Super

3 ft above MHHW

3 ft above MHHW4 ft above MHHW Forecasting Shoreline Impacts

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Uses parameterized wave run-up models, ingesting • NWPS wave, NOS tide, ESTOFS surge forecasts • USGS Observations of beach slope and topo

https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/twlviewer/ Impact Decision Support Services

2017

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Super Partner Outreach and Education FY2017 • NYNJ Port Authority – Trained LaGuardia and JFK Executives on using and interpreting our coastal flood products • 2017 New Jersey Emergency Preparedness Conference – Presented Enhancing NWS Extra-Tropical Coastal Hazard and Impact Forecasts • 2017 Nassau County Emergency Management - Key Note Presentation on Enhancing NWS Extra-Tropical Coastal Hazard and Impact Forecasts • NYS DHS/OEM - Consultation on inundation mapping project • NWS/USGS/DHS/SCFRES Coastal Services Meeting on Dec 5th • Freeport Floodplain Manager/Mitigation Coordinator and Dept of Public - Consultation2017 on use of NOAA Coastal flood viewer, and downloading of GIS layers. FY2016 • NYC OEM and NYC City Hall - Nor’easters Resilience Presentation • MTA Bridges and Tunnels - Trained on using and interpreting our coastal flood products • Hosted NWS New York Coastal Flood Focus Group to discuss enhancements to coastal flood forecasts and services with partners Conference • Region I Coastal Services Workshop in Fairfield CT - Trained CT EM’s on using and interpreting our coastal flood products FY2015 • NOAA Sea Grant CSAP Conference at NJIT Sandy • Eastern Region Group (ERG) - Interview on Storm Surge Watch/Warning Product.- • Hosted NWS New York and Partners Coastal Flooding Information Sharing Webinar • NYC OEM - Storm Surge Interagency MeetingStorm • Connecticut Congressional Round Table hosted by SeaGrant FY2014 • Nassau County Office of Emergency Management and NWS New York hosted a Coastal Inundation Mapping Course for EM’s on January 7-8th 2014, instructedSuper by the NOAA Coastal Services Center • Contribution to Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise is Flooding Coastal Communities and Reshaping the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts by the Union of Concerned Scientists. • NOS Coastal Inundation Benchmark Project • NART Wave Run Up Workshop at WFO BOX • Collaborative project with UCONN on Enhancing Coastal Resilience in Connecticut • Connecticut and Rhode Island Roundtable on Coastal Inundation hosted by SeaGrant • NY-NJ-CT Regional Transit Security Working Group

Coastal Impact Decision Support Services

2017

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Distributed through E-mail and Powerpoint Briefings for Moderate to Major coastal impact events Partner Outreach and Education

2017

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Ryan Hanrahan, NBC 4 CT Meteorologist Its all about the Partnerships!!

Strengthening Partnerships to Further Coastal Flood Resilience o Local – EM’s, Public Safety Officials, Utilities, Decision Makers o State – NY SEMO, NJ ROIC, CT DEHMS o Federal - FEMA, EPA, USGS, FAA, USCG, USACE, NOAA o Media –NBC, FOX, ABC, CBS, NEWS12, print o Academia - SUNYSB, Stevens Institute, UCONN, UMASS,2017 Sea Grant o Incorporate expertise of other science entities for more well rounded weather support

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SuperEmergency Broadcast Government Academia Private Sector Social Science Management Media

NWS Contacts

• Nelson Vaz, Coastal Services and IDSS Team Leader, Lead Meteorologist2017 [email protected] Conference • Ross Dickman, MeteorologistSandy In Charge [email protected] Super • Gary Conte, Warning Coordination Met. [email protected]