1 “The rise and continued success of great powers hinges upon the strength of their economic base, of which the defence industrial base is a key, if not the most critical, component.” “[The] historical record suggests that there is a very clear connection in the long run between an individual Great Power’s economic rise and fall and its growth and decline as an important military power… Technological and organizational breakthroughs...bring greater advantage to one society than another.” Paul Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 2 Content Introduction………………………………………………………………..…..4 Security in the 21st century ……………………………………………….…...5 - Making war, Infantry warfare, Logistics, Asymmetric warfare, air warfare, Naval warfare, Information warfare, War politics and ideology Global Military balance………………………………………………………..36 - USA, Russia, China, France, Britain, India, Israel Muslim military balance…………………………………………………….....97 - Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Iran Muslim Military Capability…………………..……………………………......127 Constructing the Khilafah’s Defences…………….…………………………..131 Strategic Issues………………………………………………………...............146 Conclusions…………………………………………………………………....153 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………...155 Notes…………………………………………………………………………..158 3 Introduction The ability of any nation or people to defend its borders from foreign threats has been part of human existence from the very beginning of time. For a nation to be considered independent, protecting its territorial integrity is essential otherwise its very existence comes into question. A nation that is able to secure its territorial integrity can then focus on internal development and prosperity, not having to worry about external interference. This situation is achieved through the development of an industrial base that manufacturers military equipment. This then makes a nation capable of defending its borders and also makes it self-sufficient in this endeavour. This deterrent capability also gives a nation power projection capabilities, this then allows it to play a role in the world well beyond its borders. Throughout history civilisations, nations, tribes and empires constructed armies to defend their lands, they built weapons industries of varying types and harnessed whatever technology was possible in their era to defend their lands and project power. A cursory glance at history shows world powers all possessed armies, advanced weapons and a cutting edge over their competitors. The Roman Empire, the British empire, the USA, Bonaparte’s France, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, the Soviet Union, China as well as the Khilafah, all constructed military industries and armies so they could defend their borders and project power globally. It is not surprising those nations that have advanced military industries are also the world’s powers and have developed an international system that protects their interests. When we look at the Muslim world however we find most nations are not independent with their military requirements and most of them rely on the west for basic security, this is why it is not surprising that none of the Muslim nations influence the global balance of power. Constructing the Khilafah’s defences will be one of the most critical areas on its establishment as defending the Ummah and projecting power will be critical issues. This book is the fifth in a series looking at how the Khilafah would deal with critical areas of a new state. Industry, education, energy and foreign policy have been researched and analysed in previous publications. This book will analyse how a nation in the modern era secures its borders, projects power and create an image of strength. It will analyse the military strength of the world’s powers in order to encapsulate the factors the future Khilafah state will need to consider. It will analyse the state of the defence- industrial base in the Muslim countries assessing where the strengths are and where development is needed. This book also analyses polices the Khilafah will need to pursue in order to defend the homeland and build its defences. The views and opinions expressed in this book are the authors. Adnan Khan 29 Ramadan 1435 27 July 2014 4 21st Century Warfare The starting point for any nation’s security begins with the development of a military-security doctrine. This doctrine shapes the nations posture, laying out clear aims and a nation’s perceived threats. This will then determine the types of weapons systems that should be developed or acquired and how military forces should be structured. A doctrine is a guide to action and not rules or regulations. A doctrine provides a common frame of reference across the military. It is a clear strategy and definable set of threats. It helps standardise operations, facilitating readiness by establishing common ways of accomplishing military tasks. A doctrine links theory, history, experimentation, and practice. Its objective is to foster initiative and creative thinking. A doctrine provides the military with an authoritative body of statements on how military forces conduct operations and provides a common lexicon for use by military planners and leaders. NATO's definition of doctrine, used unaltered by many member nations, is: “Fundamental principles by which the military forces guide their actions in support of objectives. It is authoritative but requires judgment in application.”1 Upon determining a nation’s security doctrine, one can construct an industrial base that will allow for the aims of the doctrine to be achieved. A defence industrial base is the industrial assets that produce the equipment for a country's armed forces. Any nation will need to make a decision on what its industrial capacity is and where it should be, and what, if anything, should be developed or brought in from abroad. Any industrial base will be determined by a nation’s strategic doctrine - this will clearly outline threat perceptions, deployment of forces, procurement priorities and technology systems. An industrial base needs the construction of infrastructure necessary to support nation’s military-defence industries. Alongside this transport systems, power generation and transmission networks as well as mineral processing facilities need to be constructed, maintained and expanded as and when needed. In order to defend any nation’s homeland the land, air and sea needs to be secured. Infantry (ground forces) protect a nation’s borders by securing territory. They will need to be armed individually and in structured units and transported to the battlefield. Mobilising ground forces is through them being mobile, which is achieved through the utilisation of Tanks, Personal Armoured Carriers (APC) and Artillery. The airspace of a nation will also need to be secured from foreign aggressors. Fighter jets are the primary platform used to achieve this along with missiles. The third theatre is the sea. Through a nation’s navy, combat in and on seas, oceans, or any other major bodies take place. Dominating naval warfare requires ships – cruisers, destroyers and frigates. It also needs submarines and aircraft carriers which in the modern era gives a nation significant power projection capability. 5 These are the traditional theatres for warfare and have historically been the battle-space war has taken place in. There are other theatres that are developing such as outer space and information. Weaponising space has long been an aim of the world’s powers. This is placing weapons in space that can target enemy assets on the planet. The development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) is what gave prominence to this theatre. Information warfare includes cyber warfare, sabotage, espionage and hacking. The need for military personnel to communicate in real time and ensure they are working in an integrated way led to rapid developments in communications, especially the internet, this area is now considered the electronic battlefield. CAST STUDY: Russia’s military doctrine: Past, Present and Future Over the decades, Russia’s military doctrine industrial complex during a time when Russia has shifted according to the perceived threats was feeling the looming threat of NATO and and types of war that Moscow believed it facing significant domestic separatist threats. would face. The military doctrine and The military and its industrial complex in the strategy under Josef Stalin following World 1990s were chaotic, top-heavy and lacked any War II was to create large land forces able to political will from the Kremlin to fix its face a protracted, large-scale, years long land problems. The Kremlin’s focus on the war. This military doctrine shifted under Russian military and its doctrine started to Nikita Krushchev because the Soviet Union's take serious shape in 2000 under Vladimir development of nuclear weapons made Putin. His main focus was to reorganise the nuclear war more likely as the Cold war was Russian military, purge the glut and shift to a well underway. Under Leonid Brezhnev, a tighter and smaller military. The 2000 more balanced military doctrine was put in Russian doctrine was meant to be a period of place with broad concepts of war to account transition for the military and industrial for various land and nuclear war scenarios. complex. It set up the Russian military to be The aggressive military doctrines of these defensive in character during this period. By Soviet leaders started to falter in the 1980s, 2006, Russia had started to come up with