SIPRI CHINA–RUSSIA Policy Paper RELATIONS AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS From Pivots to Peripheral Diplomacy edited by lora saalman March 2017 STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Sven-Olof Petersson, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Espen Barth Eide Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) Dr Radha Kumar (India) The Director DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: + 46 8 655 9700 Email:
[email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org China–Russia Relations and Regional Dynamics From Pivots to Peripheral Diplomacy edited by lora saalman March 2017 Contents Preface v Acknowledgements vii Abbreviations ix Executive summary xi 1. Introduction 1 2. Redefining Russia’s Pivot and China’s Peripheral Diplomacy 3 2.1. Sergey Lukonin 3 2.2. Yang Cheng 7 2.3. Niklas Swanström 10 3. The Belt and Road Initiatives and new geopolitical realities 15 3.1. Christer Ljungwall and Viking Bohman 15 3.2. Ma Bin 20 Figure 3.1.1. Mapping assertiveness and strategic resilience 18 Table 3.1.2. Factors in economic and political strategic resilience 19 4. Eurasian Economic Union Policies and Practice in Kyrgyzstan 25 4.1. Richard Ghiasy 25 4.2.