sign in sign up
<<
Home , 2007 in rail transport, Chingford Branch Line, City and Brixton Railway, Elmers End, Eltham, Grove Park (Sutton)

February 2012

The Mayor’s Rail Vision Investing in Rail Services in Authority February 2012

Published by City Hall The Queen’s Walk More London London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458

Photographs © TfL

Copies of this report are available from www.london.gov.uk February 2012

The Mayor’s Rail Vision Investing in Rail Services in London

Contents 5 Mayoral foreword 7 Introduction 9 The economic context and demand growth 13 Proven success – as the model for London’s rail future 17 London – making best use of the railway 23 A specific proposal for devolution – Southeastern and West Anglia services 27 regulation and the future of ticketing 29 Future rail infrastructure investment 35 Beyond 2020 37 Next steps for the rail industry 4 The Mayor’s Rail Vision Mayoral foreword 5

Not since the high watermark of the Victorian railway age has there been such a period of optimism for our rail system. Government has given the green light in principle to , a project offering real promise if implemented well. and continue apace and the Tube upgrade is now bringing measurable benefits to . These multi-billion pound projects are vital, but the attention their Brunelian scale generates can be a diversion from more mundane, but no less vital, aspects of our system. Companies (TOCs) under commercial franchises from the Government. Our inner-suburban railways are the workhorse of much of the Capital’s As a result, swathes of London, economy. Investment in these assets especially towns on routes running often generates a high return in the to and through , Enfield and job creation and growth that is , suffer from less frequent crucial to the economic prospects trains and lower levels of customer of London and the UK. Despite the service than their passengers have importance of this network, it is the a right to expect. Worse still, area that is most in need of a plan for proposed changes to franchises may additional capacity. Realising my Rail mean that customer service and off- Vision would deliver an extra 1,700 peak deteriorate. train coaches serving London. The lack of a coherent vision is a The city’s rail network is fractured. barrier to investment, innovation The highest performing, most and full integration with London’s popular and integrated services are Tube, , and Docklands Light operated by ’s Railway (DLR) networks. An already (TfL’s) London Byzantine fares-setting policy is under my democratically accountable likely to get even more complicated. oversight. But other rail services The struggle to get the TOCs to are run by separate Train Operating accept Oyster shows that even 6 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

simple improvements can take Responsibility for London’s inner- years to happen. suburban rail services should be devolved to the Mayoralty. In that There is an alternative. The London way a single coherent vision for the Overground network has been city’s railways can be made real. A transformed in the relatively short single investment strategy, a single time since TfL took over. It is now fares policy, consistently high levels among the most reliable and most of customer service and safety and a popular railways in the UK. The vivid network fully integrated across all of orange lines offer turn-up-and-go London’s communities. train frequencies, safer and more secure stations, and much improved infrastructure. Better still these lines are more efficient. Instead of funding TOC ‘risk premiums’, and tax Boris Johnson payers’ money goes on the things that matter to passengers. Introduction 7

This document sets out the Mayor’s expensive and less efficient than vision for transforming rail services other alternative models that have in London. been tested successfully on TfL’s Overground network. It outlines the city’s transport challenges, proposes a new approach As a result of this fractured approach to the management of rail services, to rail service provision, existing highlights key investment needs and assets are not being exploited to sets out a proposal that offers greater their full capacity and the new value for fare and tax payers’ money. infrastructure being delivered over the next decade may not reach its If this new plan was taken forward, full potential. passengers would benefit from more reliable services, higher customer The money saved through adopting service standards, improved stations a more efficient franchising and higher off-peak frequencies. model could be ploughed back into improved service quality and London’s rail travellers suffer from customer facilities. Gross savings from having two separate the Southeastern and West Anglia networks. An integrated network run franchises alone could amount to by TfL – including , the Tube, £100m over 20 years, and TfL would TfL’s Overground network, DLR and look to improve some 104 stations, – and different TOCs providing bringing them up to superior London services under Overground standards. commercial franchise agreements with central Government. The success of London Overground exemplifies the benefits of This results in a confusing mix of devolution. Customer satisfaction ticket products, fare levels, service has a score of 92 out of 100 and quality standards and information reliability performance is at a UK provision for customers. It is the TOCs record of 96 per cent compared with that typically provide the lower level the TOC average of 91 per cent. of service and greater complexity of Demand has trebled since TfL took fare and ticket products. They also over the network and is forecast to act as a barrier to integrated planning grow by a further 34 per cent and operational management, by 2020. and to innovation. This document also considers The current franchise model is London’s rail investment needs, ill-suited to inner-suburban rail including the capacity required to management. It is both more 8 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

meet growing demand for rail services This document also outlines the rail – crucial to the economy of the investment necessary to support Capital and the wider UK. regeneration, improve interchange opportunities at strategic locations, It recognises that the Mayor and the the provision of step-free access and Government have already made great station congestion relief. progress on improving London and the UK’s railways. Crossrail, the Tube The committed rail schemes since upgrade, Thameslink and a package 2007 will add 54 per cent to London’s of suburban and inner-suburban rail rail capacity, and 40 more National improvements will transform many Rail stations will be made step- passengers’ experiences of rail travel. free. The £1bn investment package It will add much needed capacity recommended here would add a to the system. While an impressive further 10 per cent to capacity and 26 achievement in its own right, it will more step-free stations. A turn-up- not be enough additional capacity, and-go train service would support the and nor does it address problems on regeneration of the upper Lea Valley. all rail corridors. Devolution of responsibility for further rail services in London to the Mayor, with his accountability to the London electorate, would drive up customer service levels. Realising this vision would deliver the benefits shown in Figure 1, and give London a railway fit to meet the challenges of the next decade.

Figure 1: London-wide benefits of the Mayor’s Rail Vision

Extra vehicles (train coaches) serving London, including Crossrail and Thameslink, over 2007 levels 1,700 Total increase in capacity, including Crossrail and Thameslink, over 2007 levels 69% Increase in peak demand over 2007 levels 34% Increase in capacity from TfL’s recommended schemes for (2014 to 2019) 10% Reduction in crowding from TfL’s recommended capacity schemes 5% Number of additional stations made step-free 66 The economic context 9 and demand growth

London’s economy has grown by 20 whole of Sheffield by 2020, per cent over the past 10 years (as and Birmingham, Britain’s second measured by Gross Value Added), city, by 2031. and further huge increases in the The Capital is highly dependent on Capital’s population and employment rail, with the Tube and National Rail are forecast. Rail demand is now at having a combined mode share of 78 unprecedented levels, up 27 per cent per cent for trips to in in a decade, and continues to grow 2010. Londoners make six times as strongly, despite the recession. many rail trips as people in the rest London’s economy will continue of , and 60 per cent of all UK to expand, with a massive rise in rail trips are made either to, from or employment by 2031, much of which within the Capital. is focused in the highly productive central area. This has been likened to London growing by the size of the

Figure 2: London employment from 1971 to 2031

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500 Thousands 4,000

3,500

3,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 10 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Figure 3: Average number of National Rail trips per head per year

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 London England without London

Figure 4: Productivity per head by region relative to England as a whole

North East

Yorkshire and Humber

West Midlands

North West

East Midlands

South West

East

South East

London

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Per cent 11

Figure 5: London’s population from 1971 to 2031

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500 Thousands

7,000

6,500

6,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

As rail is the main means by which South East contributes more than people get to their central London a third of UK GDP, and by 2016 it jobs, the Capital’s economy is crucially is forecast to generate a tax surplus dependent on it. In turn, the UK’s of £27bn. London’s share of the UK economy is crucially dependent on economy is forecast to continue to London’s. As a global and business grow until at least 2020. financial centre, the city’s productivity per head is 60 per cent higher than the UK average. London and the 12 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Figure 6: Rail demand in London and the South East from April 2007

125

120

115

110

105 Index (April 2007 = 100) Rail

100 LU

DfT forecast 95 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rail journey numbers fell during the Overall it is forecast that growth in recession in 2009, but have since trips (by all modes) will increase by recovered strongly with demand 12 per cent by 2020, but because now at an all-time high – above the of rail’s high mode share, rail trips levels forecast before the downturn. are forecast to grow by 33 per cent Figure 6 shows the impacts of the during the same period. recession on rail demand have already dissipated. Proven success – London 13 Overground as the model for London’s rail future

Responsibility for the former TfL has also doubled frequencies Metro franchise was devolved to between Stratford and TfL in 2007. Under Silverlink Metro, , Junction and services were of poor quality with old Willesden Junction, and rolling stock, neglected stations, low and Barking. Together with levels of customer service and high the train lengthening, this has levels of . The operation increased capacity by 150 per cent consistently received dismal customer on those sections. satisfaction results. London Overground routes now Since taking over the network and include: to & establishing the London Overground ; Richmond/Clapham Junction service, TfL has made significant to Stratford; Watford Junction to enhancements to the level and quality Euston and Gospel Oak to Barking. of services. It has introduced new, longer And soon to be included is the new rolling stock; upgraded infrastructure line from to run more frequent services; and Quays to Clapham Junction. TfL has refurbished stations. It also offers integrated the routes into its existing higher standards of customer service. public transport network, standardising 14 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

fares and improving and harmonising in May 2010, and it was further branding, information and customer extended to Highbury & Islington in service. This is providing a consistent February 2011, forming an integrated customer proposition across the Capital, part of the London Overground making public transport easier to use network. The original route length and encouraging modal shift. has been quadrupled. This ambitious project, with a new fleet of trains The Overground has been transformed and refurbished stations, was built from a neglected railway into the successfully ahead of schedule. best performing network in Great Britain, with an outstanding reliability It is a vital new link in the transport performance figure of 96 per cent. network, opening up new journey opportunities, enabling access to The transformation has led to a surge without entering the in customer satisfaction, as measured congested central area, and bringing by independent body Passenger Focus, TfL customer service standards to from 65 out of 100 in spring 2008 south London. to 92 out of 100 in autumn 2011. Its National Passenger Survey1 noted the In 2007, Silverlink Metro carried highest level of overall satisfaction 0.6 million passengers per week. on some routes for a Government That figure has now increased to franchised or concession operation in 1.2 million on the ‘original’ London and the South East. Overground network, and the extended has added Demand on the ‘original’ Overground a further 0.7 million journeys per network has grown by 110 per cent, week, trebling the original demand. while fare evasion is down from 16 per cent to four per cent. These 2012 will see the completion improvements started well before the of the orbital network with a investment was completed. Crime, for further extension of the London example, fell by 19 per cent in the Overground from to first year of TfL’s control. Clapham Junction. This will link the Overground services in the east and TfL has also greatly extended the west, relieve the central area, create original East London line. The new many new journey opportunities, East London line from and improve accessibility to areas of Junction to Crystal Palace, West London currently poorly served by Croydon and opened public transport.

1 Passenger Focus National Passenger Survey, spring 2011 15

Figure 7: The London Overground network by the end of 2012

Watford Junction

ENFIELD Bushey

Carpenders Park

BARNET WALTHAM Hatch End FOREST HARROW Headstone Lane Blackhorse South Road Harrow & HARINGEYTottenham REDBRIDGE Queen’s Road Kenton Crouch Hill Leytonstone South Kenton Green Lanes Gospel Midland Road High Road North Oak Hackney Park IS L ING TONCanonburyHACKNEY BRENT West Central Wembley Central CAMDEN BARKING Stratford Willesden Highbury Dalston AND Stonebridge Park Junction Barking Junction & Islington Queen’s Park W Euston E WhitechapelTOWER NEWHAM GDON S High Street K T HAMLETS H A E M CoL Shadwell A N N IN M D S S Acton Central M Shepherd’sC IN Bush T E E R H G R South Acton F S KensingtonE T Olympia S OUTHW A R K U M L O Surrey Quays L S N H IT E A H WestA Brompton M M A Clapham New Cross Gardens ImperialN Wharf D High Street New Cross Gate Rye Richmond Clapham L A MB E TH Junction BEXLEY Park Forest Hill Sydenham RICHMOND UPON THAMES Crystal Palace BROMLEY CROYDON KINGSTON Norwood Junction UPON Interchange station THAMES Other station SUTTON West Croydon

‘Rail users need longer and more ‘The powerful combination of frequent trains, with more spacious investment in new trains, stations, stations and new lines to relieve visible staff and simple fares is the pressure. The Mayor must use drawing passengers in. This customer his or her powers to bring all our satisfaction score is a great result – local railways up to the standards the challenge is now to maintain this achieved by London Overground.’ or move even closer to 100 per cent.’ Janet Cooke, Chief Executive of Anthony Smith, Chief Executive of London Travelwatch Passenger Focus 16 The Mayor’s Rail Vision London – making best 17 use of the railway

The solution to London’s rail problems experience across the 10 TOCs that is not just investment. How to get the serve London suburban markets. best out of the railways and how they TfL has identified a value for are managed is vital too. money package of customer service The UK rail industry is being standards which can be applied across restructured in response to the the rail franchises serving London: McNulty Review2, which found the Service frequency – a ‘turn-up- UK’s railways are too expensive. and-go’ frequency of at least four Reform of the franchising process can trains per hour throughout the week. help achieve a better railway for less. Station ambience – improved Railway assets are expensive to station ambience by deep cleaning create, maintain and operate. It and refurbishing. is therefore essential to get the maximum possible benefit from Staffing – a visible staff presence them. In London, the whole rail across the network throughout the network has considerably more day, offering proactive assistance potential in terms of service quality, to customers. cost of delivery and ease of use. Passenger security – improved Rail is not just about capacity. passenger security with networked More could be made from these CCTV and Help Points at all expensive assets given relatively stations, plus improved lighting minor investment in customer and more stations gated to reduce service quality. antisocial behaviour. The Mayor’s vision is for one Customer information – visual and integrated transport network in public address systems providing London, offering consistent customer real-time train service information, service standards. At present there are supported by the best and most two distinct transport systems – the comprehensive online and mobile- services run by TfL and the network enabled journey planning system managed by the Department for anywhere in the world. Transport (DfT), which offers lower Cycle parking – high quality cycle levels of customer service. There parking facilities to promote cycling are also differences in customer as a means of accessing stations.

2 Realising the Potential of GB Rail, May 2011 18 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Applying these customer service The increment/decrement process standards to the London Overground does not work satisfactorily in network shows a marked rise in practice. The best and most customer satisfaction, alongside a commercially attractive ideas are 110 per cent increase in demand. taken by the DfT for inclusion in the base specification. There may be no Under current rail industry structures, obligation for the bidders to respond and constraints on national finances, to the TfL options, as has been seen these improvements would be difficult recently with bidders for the short- to achieve through the Mayor’s limited term Greater Anglia franchise. The right to buy increments or decrements options are not part of the bidder to rail franchises. This is the process by assessment process, so the quality which the Mayor has some influence and price ascribed to them is given over franchise specifications. no weight.

Figure 8: Customer satisfaction index on the London Overground network since 2003 (National Passenger Survey)

Before TfL Aer TfL 95

90

85

80

75

70

National Passenger Survey score National Passenger 65

60

55 Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut Spr Aut ‘03 ‘04 ‘04 ‘05 ‘05 ‘06 ‘06 ‘07 ‘07 ‘08 ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 19

Also, the experience of negotiating If the Mayor had control of the acceptance of Oyster pay as you National Rail services in the Capital go ticketing by the TOCs has been (including a devolved budget), they instructive. Reaching consensus could deliver the higher customer across 10 TOCs took four years and satisfaction and safety, and the lower generated much greater expense than level of fare evasion seen on the should be the case for a project of London Overground network. this kind. The Government’s direction of The Mayor’s five point plan travel towards more commercial, less for devolution: prescriptive franchises, if applied in 1. TfL is allocated a rail budget for inner-suburban passenger services the Capital, could adversely affect London’s non-commercial railway. 2. As franchises come up for renewal, inner-suburban services are specified This takes the form of possible to Overground customer service reductions in off-peak frequencies standards, with the same performance and station service and facilities, all of indicators as the Overground which could mean worsening service 3. TfL is given genuine control over quality. The increment to make this contract management, such as good would become ever greater ‘breach’ and ‘default’ financially, and less affordable for TfL. 4. Regulated fares in London would be set by the Mayor The solution to all these problems is 5. Inner-suburban services could then be devolution. This means the Secretary branded ‘London Overground’ of State for Transport transferring control of the inner-suburban parts of the National Rail franchises serving London to the Mayor. 20 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Figure 9: Change in train service performance (Public Performance Measure) since 2007

100

98

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The accountability of the Mayor to However, perhaps the greatest single the London electorate means he or reason for devolution is the better she is answerable on issues such as form of contracting employed by TfL train service performance, quality in the London Overground concession. and fare levels. These are not key TfL uses a ‘gross cost’ contract, in issues in a general election, but they which it absorbs the revenue risk for are in Mayoral elections. A real and the inner-suburban services. This is observable consequence of this is to because train operators have little drive up train service performance control over revenues, which are levels, as shown in Figure 9. driven largely by macroeconomic While each individual case would factors such as London employment be judged on its merits, the TfL-run and fare levels. As a result, normal network also has significantly higher DfT rail franchisees include risk off-peak frequencies. Figure 10 premiums in their bids, which would compares the proportions of TfL- be massively reduced if TfL took the served and National Rail only stations revenue risk instead. receiving a turn-up-and-go frequency in the inter-peak period. This effect is even more pronounced on Sundays. 21

Figure 10: Proportions of TfL-served and National Rail only stations receiving a turn-up-and-go frequency in the inter-peak period

100 100 100 100 100

80 80 80 80 80

60 60 60 60 60

40 40 40 40 40

20 20 20 20 20

0 0 0 0 0 Central North East South West

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central North East South West Central CentralNorth North East East South South West West

100 100 100 100 100

80 80 80 80 80 Proportion of TfL-served 60 60 60 60 60 stations in sub region with four trains per hour during 40 40 40 40 40 the inter-peak

20 20 20 20 20 Proportion of National Rail only stations in sub 0 0 0 0 0 Central North East South West region with four trains per hour during the inter-peak 22 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

For the two specific franchises proposed for devolution, the gross saving from the transfer of revenue risk has been estimated at £100m over 20 years. This could then be invested in improving customer service quality, giving more for less. In the context of the McNulty Review this is the single most overriding objective for UK railways. A specific proposal for 23 devolution – Southeastern and West Anglia services

TfL has targeted the highest the right to make increments or priorities for devolution as being the decrements to National Rail franchises. Southeastern network inner-suburban If devolved to the Mayor these services from , Sevenoaks franchises would replicate the success of and Hayes, and the West Anglia the Overground. There would be higher inner-suburban services from Enfield customer service standards, with greater Town, Hertford East and . train service reliability, and improved These routes are shown in purple in station ambience, staffing, passenger Figures 11 and 13. The proposed security, customer information and routes are wholly within the Mayor’s station facilities. The benefits to the Wider London boundary. This is the West Anglia and Southeastern inner- area within which the Mayor has suburban routes are shown in Figure 12.

Figure 11: Southeast London routes proposed for devolution (in purple)

Charing Cross Victoria Arsenal

Peckham Greenwich Greenwich Rye Slade Green

Nunhead Lewisham Bexley Crayford Dartford Bexley West Bridge Grove Park Lewisham

Merton Bromley North

Elmers End Bromley South

Hayes Bromley Sutton Croydon

Knockholt Devolved stations Other stations Devolved routes London Overground network National Rail network Dunton Green Borough boundary

Mayor's Wider London boundary Sevenoaks 24 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

TfL would increase service stations on the Southeastern network frequencies to a minimum ‘turn- within Greater London, TfL has a up-and-go’ level wherever possible, presence at only one – New Cross. subject to infrastructure requirements TfL believes it can make the greatest and impacts on other operators. difference with these two franchises. For example, TfL would implement They would also act as a stepping a new, off-peak Bromley South to stone and proving ground for the Victoria all-stations service, to model of TfL taking over part of an address gaps in service provision existing larger franchise, on the way identified in previous TfL studies. to full devolution across London. In addition, TfL would be able to Also, local services on Great Eastern make best use of interchange points will be transferred to the Crossrail and fully integrate the services into TOC in 2015. This will be a TfL- other parts of its network. managed concession similar to the The Southeastern and West Anglia London Overground. Like the London networks have been identified Overground route to Watford Junction, because service quality is currently Crossrail, Southeastern and West poor, and TfL has almost no rail Anglia will all share with longer presence in southeast London, other distance services, for which there are than parts of the DLR and established regulatory processes to networks. Of the 68 National Rail ensure scarce capacity is best allocated.

Figure 12: Benefits of the Rail Vision to West Anglia and Southeastern inner-suburban routes

After Rail Now Vision Extra passengers per year benefiting from a TfL rail service - 85 million Customer satisfaction score for overall satisfaction with stations (out of 100) 58-74 >75 Additional train services per week (in both directions) on Southeastern - 500 (9%) Additional train services per week (in both directions) on West Anglia - 1,040 (39%) Number of stations without a four trains per hour turn-up-and-go interpeak service 25 10 Number of stations that meet TfL’s customer service standards for ambience, security 0 104 and customer information Train service performance measure 90% 90-95% Estimated level of fares evasion 10% 5% 25

Figure 13: Northeast London routes proposed for devolution (in purple)

Hertford East

Devolved stations Rye House Other stations Devolved routes London Overground network Broxbourne National Rail network

Borough boundary

Mayor's Wider London boundary

Cheshunt

Turkey Street Enfield Lock

Enfield Enfield Town

Chingford

Edmonton Green Palmers Green Barnet White Waltham Hart Lane Forest Haringey Redbridge Hale Seven Sisters Walthamstow Central

Seven Kings Finsbury Camden Park Gospel Oak Rectory Hackney Road Barking and Barking Dagenham Stratford

Islington Cambridge Heath Euston

Liverpool Newham Street W t i t 26 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Some practical issues associated with Longer distance services have different devolution have been raised. These revenue drivers and higher yields, and are listed in Figure 14, and either have train operators are more incentivised ready solutions or are simply more to innovate and attract customers apparent than real. from competing modes. Freeing the franchises of inner-suburban services So by 2020 the Capital could be seeing would make the residual longer distance the advantages of devolution on parts services more homogenous. It would of Southeastern and West Anglia, be a practical manifestation of the and on the Crossrail concession, in Government’s stated policy that ‘one addition to the established benefits to size does not fit all’. the London Overground network. If Southeastern and West Anglia Separating inner-suburban services inner-suburban services are devolved from longer distance services within to the Mayor, TfL would expect there existing franchises also makes it easier to be an overwhelming case for for the Government to achieve its policy further devolution. of a less prescriptive franchising model.

Figure 14: Solutions to practical issues on devolution

Issue Solution Do users outside The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) would continue to regulate and protect access where London and freight appropriate. Operators with access rights have legally enforceable rights. Freight and longer- operators lose out as distance services have a key role in the London economy and contribute to the objectives of rail capacity in London the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, so TfL would protect these. This has been proven to work on is scarce? the , where passenger and freight services successfully operate side by side. TfL has partly funded line capacity works to the benefit of both passenger and freight services. Is there a deficit in The TfL Board has members whose specific role is to look after the interest of out- democratic accountability boundary users of TfL services. In practical terms, there is no objection to the proposal for rail users living outside from neighbouring transport authorities, and out-boundary services could be specified and London (yet having to be managed jointly with them. It would represent an improvement in democratic accountability. users of the Mayor’s rail The current TOCs are commercial enterprises and have no accountability to local people, services)? except through the national regulatory regime. Is TfL acceptance of TfL not only has much more scope to manage this risk than TOCs, but an independent report revenue risk credible? by NERA Economic Consulting3 shows it also offers the public sector better value for money.

Can improvements be TfL will continue to review the most effective use of staff in the context of new retail afforded, given the technologies, such as ‘wave and pay’ and internet transactions. For tram, National Rail and imperative to cut costs? DLR, TfL regularly market tests operation through competitive procurement processes.

3 The Costs and Benefits of Devolving Responsibility for Rail Services in London, March 2011 Fares regulation and the 27 future of ticketing

The runaway success of Oyster pay as and hard to change. An example of a you go on the National Rail network successful TfL innovation, which the in London shows the appetite of TOCs have not agreed to, is contra- passengers for an improved fares and flow pricing, where off-peak rates are ticketing system. Rail users clearly charged for evening peak trips into value the convenience, simplicity the central area. and integration that pay as you go There are multiple bodies with provides, and this success is despite responsibilities for fares and ticketing limited retailing and support at most within London (the Mayor, the National Rail stations. Secretary of State and the 10 train The current system of fares and operators), which inevitably leads to ticketing, where each of the 10 main conflicts between the train operators’ London TOCs has a veto on fares commercial objectives, the National policy, makes the system unwieldy Rail fare regulation regime and the 28 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

London regime. These are made Simplified fare tariffs would be acute by the high level of ticketing enormously easier for customers and integration in London and the cheaper to administer. They would also dominance in the market of joint enable TfL to innovate further and products, such as the provide more flexible, smartcard-based and pay as you go. alternatives to the traditional rail-only season ticket, eg by offering better Fares regulation has been tending value to people working from home towards greater divergence, just at a one day per week, or with shoulder- time when the new peak discounts. New offers would (and Crossrail in the near future) will be phased in gradually and would be blur the historical distinction between subject to affordability, with existing TfL Rail and National Rail. printed season tickets retained while It is increasingly apparent that there was demand. the current railway fares regime in TfL would also be able to roll out London is outdated, and is no longer innovative new ticketing systems, fit to meet the challenges of the such as ‘wave and pay’ and additional coming years. acceptance of contactless bank cards benefiting those users who are currently deterred or disadvantaged. Future rail infrastructure 29 investment

Jobs and population growth is such Train capacity that, by 2020, there will be crowding Figure 15 shows crowding on on many rail corridors. Although we National Rail inner-suburban services are in a period of unprecedented in 2021 if there are no further rail investment in transport infrastructure, capacity increases beyond existing not all corridors have committed committed schemes. It shows the capacity increases, and of the density of standing passengers, per committed schemes, not all are square metre of standing space, in sufficient to meet future demand. the morning peak hour. Capacity at key stations will also be Purple and black colours represent a problem, along with the ongoing severe crowding, and red shows areas need to provide greater step-free of concern. It reflects the pattern and access and support regeneration.

Figure 15: Crowding on National Rail inner-suburban services in 2021

2021 Reference Case: Inner services Average AM peak hour crowding

Harrow and Wealdstone

Seven Sisters Tottenham Willesden Hale Junction

Euston Farringdon Stratford Victoria Liverpool Street Barking RIVE R THA ME S Ealing Waterloo Broadway Blackfriars

Elephant and Castle Denmark Hill Abbey Richmond Clapham Lewisham Wood Junction

Herne Hill

Wimbledon

Kingston Crystal Palace

Mitcham Bromley Junction South

Number of passengers per m 2 of standing space No passengers standing 0 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 3 3 - 4 4 - 5

Higher directional flow

Crowding on radial routes is shown for the peak direction. On orbital routes, the higher directional flow is shown. 30 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

extent of the committed rail Crowding is also forecast on the capacity investment. Windsor lines into Clapham Junction, services into London Bridge and the The most severe crowding is on Tilbury Loop into Barking. TfL has orbital routes, including much of the also modelled 2021 crowding levels Overground network. The upgrade on outer-suburban services, with the of the Overground has transformed concerns being on Essex Thameside, it and unlocked a huge volume coast, , South of previously suppressed orbital West main line and Great Western journeys. However, in the context main line services. of the forecast growth, the current Overground trains are not long Recommendations for the next enough to cope with the anticipated National Rail investment period high level of demand. (Control Period 5 from 2014 to 2019) are shown in Figure 16.

Figure 16: TfL’s recommended schemes for the next High Level Output Specification (2014 to 2019)

West Anglia Orbital routes Additional Lea Valley tracks and higher Barking to Gospel frequencies to Stratford Oak electrification Higher frequencies between Cheshunt Longer trains and Seven Sisters Higher frequencies

Great Western Longer trains to Oxford and Newbury

Essex Thameside More 12-car trains

South Eastern More 12-car trains

South Western More capacity on Southern Windsor lines Lengthening the Sydenham corridor to 12-car trains All 12-car trains on main line All full length trains on Brighton main line, including Uckfield services 31

They are tempered by the likely Wimbledon and Fenchurch Street, availability of funding, and focus on shown in Figure 18 on page 33. the highest priority needs and best TfL’s plans for the National Rail network value for money solutions. The most support the development of the pressing need is to lengthen trains on strategic interchange concept, as set the London Overground network, and out in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy. run additional services where possible. A 25 per cent increase in capacity is By improving the ease of interchange proposed, with longer trains on the at key stations on orbital routes, North London, East London, South and delivering the maximum London, West London and the Gospel orbital service (such as through Oak to Barking lines. the Overground train lengthening and frequency increases described In the next phase of rail investment, earlier), the network can support the High Level Output Specification the development of Outer London. for 2014 to 2019 or Control Period Passengers can make a short radial 5, TfL proposes an additional 386 journey to an interchange station, a vehicles (train coaches) serving journey on the orbital network, and a London, making 3,800 trips per day. radial journey out to their destination. To benchmark this figure, the last investment phase for 2009 to 2014 This would also remove the need will see the delivery of 590 vehicles to interchange at busy central serving London. This highlights London locations and provide some both the scale of the investment congestion relief to the central area. in Control Period 4 and the scale An example of a scheme to support the of ongoing funding needed. TfL’s strategic interchange network is the recommendations for Control Period 5 proposed direct link between Hackney (2014 to 2019) would add a further Downs and stations. 10 per cent to London’s rail capacity. Figure 17 shows further examples. Station infrastructure There are also works required to Stations also present significant improve links between London challenges for 2020. Jobs and Underground and National Rail population growth will result in stations. At Finsbury Park, the increasing pressure on a number of re-instatement of Tube to National stations. A package of congestion Rail interchange staircases would relief schemes has been identified help meet growing demand. And at 18 key stations for Control Period will play its 5, such as Barking, Finsbury Park, part by bringing forward congestion 32 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Figure 17: The strategic interchange concept in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy

Tottenham Hale Seven Sisters/ Walthamstow Central/Queens Road Finsbury Park Hackney Downs/Central Highbury Stratford Barking Willesden Junction Queen’s & Islington Ealing Broadway Park Woolwich Elephant & Castle Arsenal Richmond Lewisham Clapham Junction Catford/Catford Bridge Balham Wimbledon

West Croydon Bromley South

East Croydon

Key Strategic interchange concept Radial rail routes London Overground orbital routes DLR Tramlink Interchanges between radial rail routes and: London Overground orbital routes Other lines

relief and step-free works at Vauxhall, to double in number. A general complementing those under way at increase in the population also means a the National Rail station. rise in the number of disabled people. Improving transport Rail has a significant role to play in opportunities for all Londoners enabling equality of opportunity for Not only is London’s population people with particular support needs. forecast to increase significantly, but Station refurbishments and upgrades the populations of older and young can help to meet the needs of visually people are expected to increase by or audibly impaired people and physical proportionally greater amounts. The works can assist mobility impaired number of people aged over 65 is people. In addition, making best use forecast to rise by 34 per cent by of available staffing resources can 2031, and the over-90s are expected assist people of all needs. 33

Figure 18: TfL’s recommended station congestion and step-free schemes for the next High Level Output Specification (2014 to 2019)

Stations recommended for future Access for All works

Stations recommended for Edmonton Green congestion relief schemes Palmers Green Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) strategic interchange station Alexandra Palace Blackhorse Road London Overground Network Seven Sisters South National Rail Network Tottenham Finsbury Park West Hampstead Hackney Barking Kensal Rise Queen's Park Central/Downs Fenchurch Street Waterloo Victoria Vauxhall Park Peckham Queen's Road Peckham Barnes Rye Clapham Barnehurst Junction Herne Hill Catford Tulse Hill

Wimbledon Crystal Palace Bromley South

Orpington

Sutton

In conjunction with the MTS including those in the City, West End Accessibility Implementation Plan, TfL and . has identified a package of 26 priority The recommended schemes are stations it would like to see made estimated to increase GDP by around step-free under an extension of the £3bn (present value), helping to DfT’s Access for All programme. maintain London’s status as a global Figure 18 shows TfL’s recommended economic powerhouse into the 2020s. station schemes for the next High The schemes also serve many of the Level Output Specification. Opportunity Areas in the London Regeneration Plan. Figure 19 shows the 1km The recommended package of catchment corridors either side of the schemes for 2014 to 2019 serves rail lines where TfL is recommending some of the Intensification Areas improvements, overlaid on the identified in the , Opportunity Areas. 34 The Mayor’s Rail Vision

Figure 19: Catchment corridors of TfL’s recommended schemes for the next High Level Output Specification (2014 to 2019) overlaid on the London Plan Opportunity Areas and Areas of Intensification

In particular the additional TfL’s recommended package of train infrastructure and turn-up-and- and station capacity schemes would go frequency proposed for Lea have a capital cost in the region of Valley services into Stratford will £220m per annum for the five years significantly aid the regeneration of of Control Period 5. It has a the upper Lea Valley. It will also serve benefit:cost ratio of 4:1 and could the Olympic legacy developments generate up to £3bn (present value) around Stratford. in wider economic benefits. The package of schemes would also remove 2.3 million car journeys per year from London’s roads, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by around 6,000 tonnes per year. Beyond 2020 35

There will remain an ongoing need for in particular. It will also be required investment in rail capacity over the to disperse passengers from the full subsequent decades. High Speed 2 network at Euston. may also have the In the longer term new National potential to address National Rail Rail lines will be required to address capacity issues on the South Western capacity issues into the Capital. High network, and support regeneration Speed 2 will be the first of any new and economic growth in the upper lines, but it is likely that others will Lea Valley, depending on the also be required. option chosen. The 2020s will also see a need for Figure 20 shows a potential Crossrail 2. This will be required to central route and possible options address capacity and connectivity for branches. issues within the Capital, providing congestion relief to the

Figure 20: Potential Crossrail 2 core section, stations and branch options

Hackney Central/Downs Dalston Junction

Euston St. Pancras Essex Road Angel

Tottenham Court Road Piccadilly Circus

Victoria

King’s Road Chelsea

Clapham Junction

Possible Central London Route Possible routes/extension All stations are indicative 36 The Mayor’s Rail Vision Next steps for the 37 rail industry

Realising this vision will depend on If projects are deferred to Control the Government’s policies and agenda Period 6 (2019 to 2024), then the for rail, London and localism. Mayor’s vision for rail in London will not be realised for another five years. There are a number of forthcoming opportunities to change the rail The Government is also due to network in London. In July 2012 respond to the McNulty Review the Government will announce the into the costs and structure of High Level Output Specification for railways in the UK, and to announce 2014 to 2019 (Control Period 5), its policies in relation to franchise and the associated Statement of reform. A Government paper is Funds Available. This is a twice-in- expected in early 2012. a-decade opportunity to provide essential further capacity to London’s rail network. 38 The Mayor’s Rail Vision Other formats and languages For a large print, Braille, disc, sign language video or audio-tape version of this document, please contact us at the address below:

Public Liaison Unit Greater London Authority Telephone 020 7983 4100 City Hall Minicom 020 7983 4458 The Queen’s Walk www.london.gov.uk More London London SE1 2AA

You will need to supply your name, your postal address and state the format and title of the publication you require.

If you would like a summary of this document in your language, please phone the number or contact us at the address above.

Chinese Hindi

Vietnamese Bengali

Greek Urdu

Turkish Arabic

Punjabi Gujarati