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University Microfilms, Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan an ANALYSIS of the EXPECTED SHIFTS in CROPPING PATTERN OF This dissertation has been „ ~ microfilmed exactly as received 67-16,305 MANN, Kharak Singh, 1922- AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPECTED SHIFTS IN CROPPING PATTERN OF THE PUNJAB (INDIA) RESULTING FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHYIELDING VARIETIES OF CROPS. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1967 Economics, agricultural University Microfilms, Inc., Ann Arbor, Michigan AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPECTED SHIFTS IN CROPPING PATTERN OF THE PUNJAB (INDIA) RESULTING FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHYIELDING VARIETIES OF CROPS DISSERTATION Presented In P artial Fulfillm ent of the Requirements for Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of the Ohio State University By Kharak Singh Mann kL#> n A JU A kl*A kt* The Ohio State University 1967 Approved by Co-Advi ser Department of A gricultural Economics and Rural Sociology ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his deep gratitude to Dr. Charles V. Moore, A gricultural Economics Research Adviser, Ohio State University Team, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, for the constant inspiration, guidance, encouragement and most helpful criticism provided by him throughout the study. The author is grateful to Dr. Mervin G. Smith, Assistant Dean, and Coordinator International Affairs, Ohio State University, whose keen interest ensured the successful conclusion of this research project. A special debt of gratitude is due to Dr. S. S. Johl, Professor of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, for the extremely valuable help and advice provided by him at all stages. The author is highly grateful to Dr. Wilbur B. Wood, Group Leader, Ohio State University Team, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, and Dr. Russell 0. Olson, Chief, Agriculture Division, U.S.A.I.D., New Delhi, but for whose help it would not have been possible to submit this dissertation. Thanks are also due to Assistant Extension Specialists of the Punjab Agricultural University and the District Agricultural Officers for their co-operation in conducting the survey, to Mr. Kartar Singh G ill and Mr. N. R. Mehtani for th e ir assistance in the compilation of data. Financial help provided by the U.S.A.I.D., New Delhi; and the computor facilities provided by the Institute of A gricultural Research S ta tis tic s , New Delhi, are g ra te fu lly acknowledged. The author is p artic u la rly grateful to Mr. D. K. Bahl and Mr. D. L. Ralhan for their assistance in programming of data. VITA November 12, 1922 Born, Rayya, D is tric t Amritsar, Punjab (India) 19^2 B .Sc.(A gri. ) , Punjab University, Lahore. 19^2-47 Research Assistant, Punjab A gricultural College and Research Institute, Lyallpur. 19^-51 Lecturer, Government Agricultural College, Ludhiana. 1951 H .S c.(A gri. ) , Punjab University, Solan. 1951-55 Lecturer, Government Agricultural College, Ludhiana. 1956-57 Agronomist, Extension Training Centre, Batala, Punjab. 1957-60 Agricultural Development Officer, Department of Agriculture, Punjab, Ludhiana. 1961 M.Sc.(Agri.Econ.), Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 1962-63 Superintendent, Junior Staff School, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. 1963-66 Deputy Director of A griculture, Punjab, Chandigarh. 1966-67 Deputy Director of A griculture, Haryana, Chandigarh. i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 The New Strategy Emphasis on Highyielding Varieties The Highyielding Varieties Program in the Punjab State The Cri tic ism The Response from Farmers Possible Effects on Cropping Pattern The Problem The Objectives I I . GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA...................... 9 Area and its Classification Climate and Seasons Place of Agriculture in the Economy of the State Major Farm Enterprises Irrig a tio n Type-of-farming Areas I I I . METHODS AND MATERIALS.......................................................... 17 Hypothesis Procedure Selection of Sample Villages Selection of Sample Holdings The Survey The Synthetic Farm Situations Linear Programming Technique Prices Restraints on Fixed Resources Crop Enterprises Real A c tiv itie s Disposal Activities Input-Output Coefficients Programming Situations Estimation of Aggregate Acreage and Output iv Chapter Page IV. FARMING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAMPLE HOLDINGS........................................................ 32 Number and Size of Operational Holdings Size of Synthetic Holdings Irrig a tio n Permanent Labor at the Synthetic Holdings Live-stock Area Commanded by a Pair of Bullocks Liquid Capital Implements and Machinery V. EXISTING PRODUCTION PLANS ON SYNTHETIC HOLDINGS................................................................................... 43 V I. NORMATIVE CROPPING-PATTERNS UNDER DIFFERENT SITUATIONS......................................................... 56 Situation A Situation B Situation C Situation D Situation E Situation F V II. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS................................................... 113 APPENDIXES............................................................................... 129 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Area to Be Covered under the Highyielding Varieties in the Punjab during the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1966-71).................................. 4 2 C lassification of Land in the Punjab State (1964-65)............. 9 3 Area, Production and Yield per acre of Principal Crops Grown in Punjab (1964-65) ............ 12 4 Net Area under Irrig a tio n in 1964-65............... 14 5 Generalized Type-of-Farming Areas in P u n jab .... 16 6 Crop Activities Included in the Linear Programming Matrices Under Various Situations ........................................ 27 7 Number of Operational Holdings of Different Sizes in Selected Villages in Punjab ( 1966- 67 ) .................................................................... 32 8 Estimated Number of Operational Holdings of D ifferen t Sizes in the Punjab (1966-67) .................................................................................... 33 9 Size of Operational Holdings in Different Regions of the Punjab (1 9 6 6 -6 7 ).. ............... 34 10 Irrigated Area as Percentage of Total Area on D ifferent Holdings in Punjab (1966-67) ..................................................................... 35 11 Permanent Labor at D ifferen t Synthetic Holdings in Punjab (1 9 6 6 -6 7 ).. ..................................... 37 12 Live-stock at the Different Synthetic Holdings in Punjab ( 1966- 67 ) ......................................... 38 13 Area Commanded by a Pair of Bullocks on the D ifferent Holdings in Punjab ( I966- 67 ) .......... 39 vi Table Pa9e ]k Availability of Cash on Operational Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab ( 1966- 67 ) ................................................... ^ 15 Available Cash per acre on Operational Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab ( 1966- 67 ) .................................................................... **2 16 Percentage of Area under D ifferent Crops on Different Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under the Existing Situation (1966-67) .................. ^ 17 Estimated Acreage of Major Crops in the D ifferen t Regions of the Punjab (1966-67) .................................................................................... ^7 18 Percentage of Rabi and Kharif Crops on D ifferen t Holdings in Punjab under Existing Situation ( 1966- 67 ) ................................. ^8 19 Intensity of Cropping on D ifferen t Holdings in D ifferent Regions of Punjab under Existing Situation (1966-67) .................................................................................... ^9 20 Net Returns to Fixed Farm Resources per Acre at the D ifferen t Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under the Existing Situation (1966-67) ......................................... 50 21 Use of F e rtiliz e rs (Calcium-Ammonium- N itra te and Superphosphate) per acre at the Different Holdings in Different Regions of Punjab under the Existing Situation ( 1966- 67 ).. ........................ 51 22 Actual Utilization of Irrigation Facilities (April-July Period) at the Different Synthetic Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under the Existing Situation ( 1966- 67 ) ......................................... 53 23 Utilization of Cash per Cultivated acre on the Different Synthetic Holdings in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under the Existing Situation (1966- 67 ) ................... 5^ vi i Table Pa9e Ik Percentage of Cropped Acreage under Different Crops in Different Regions in the Punjab under Situation A...................................... 58 25 Cropping Intensity, Seasonal Distribution of Crops, Returns to Fixed Farm Resources, and U tiliz a tio n of Irrigation (Apri1-July) and Cash Input per acre, for Different Regions under Situation A........... ................................................. 59 26 Percentage of Cropped Acreage under Different Crops in Different Regions of the Punjab underSituation B . , .......................... 64 27 Intensity of Cropping, Seasonal Distribution, Returns, and Utilization of Irrig atio n and Cash Resources in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under Situation B.............................................................. ............... 65 28 Percentage of Cropped Area under D ifferen t Crops in D ifferen t Regions of Punjab under Situation C............................................ 71“72 29 Area and Production of Principal Crops under D ifferen t Varieties and Levels of Technology in Punjab under Situation C............................................................................... 73 30 Cropping Intensity, Seasonal D istribution of Crops,
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