Environmental and Social Impact Assessment

Project Number: 52167-001 December 2020

Regional: TAPI Gas Pipeline Project (Phase 1)

Pakistan: Main (Part 6.4)

Prepared by the TAPI Pipeline Company Limited for the Asian Development Bank.

This environmental and social impact assessment is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB's Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature. Your attention is directed to the “terms of use” section on ADB’s website.

In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. 6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL BASELINE

6.4 Physical Environment

6.4.1 Overview

The objective of this section is to define physical environment baseline conditions, identify receptor sensitivities, and inform what is likely to be impacted by the Project activities. The following aspects are discussed:

· Topography and geomorphology; · Soil and sub-surface geology conditions, including seismotectonic setting; · Groundwater and surface water resources; · Erosion and sedimentation dynamics; and · Flood risk.

The physical environment baseline assessment provides a contextual overview of the area likely to be affected by the Project activities, known as the PAI as defined in Chapter 5. Impact Assessment Methodology, and summarizes available information on receptors’ conditions within the PAI.

The extent of the PAI for physical environment receptors has been defined at the scoping stage, as follows:

· Soil: - construction ROW, AGIs, camps, and pipe yards footprint; - rationale: the movement of any contaminants through the soil is assumed to be vertically downward; · Surface water resources: - extent of channels and rivers and downstream from the pipeline ROW at river crossings or AGIs where a dense network of shallow streams is present; - impacts expected up to 5 km in case of major volumes of spills (potentially during construction); - rationale: considering downstream transport of any chemicals and particulates occurring in channels and rivers; · Groundwater resources: - 1 km buffer on either side of the pipeline ROW and around AGIs, camps, and pipe yards; and - rationale: due to potential contaminants movement within groundwater bodies.

ESIA_Pakistan_Chapter_6.4_Physical_Environment Page 6.4-1 6.4.2 Approach to Secondary Baseline Data Collection (Desktop Study)

The physical environment baseline assessment includes a study of regional and local geology, hydrology, and hydrogeology within the PAI. A literature review has been carried out to determine the current conditions, which were used to define the sensitivities of the identified physical environment receptors based on the sensitivity criteria detailed in Chapter 5. Impact Assessment Methodology.

Secondary data collected from the following publicly available sources of information have been used in this baseline assessment:

· Geological Map of Pakistan (Geological Survey of Pakistan, 1964); · Slip Rates of Chaman Fault System, Pakistan (Huang and Khan, 2016); · Soil Survey in Pakistan, History, Achievement and Impact on Agriculture (Khan, 2012); · Groundwater Resource Management in Pakistan (PDMAP, 2017); · Pakistan Environment and Climate Change Outlook (UNEP, 2013); · Booklet on Hydrogeological Map of Pakistan (WAPDA/EUAD, 1989); and · Fault Creep Rates of the Chaman Fault (Afghanistan and Pakistan) (Barnhart, 2016).

6.4.3 Approach to Primary Baseline Data Collection (Field Survey)

In May 2018, NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor carried out a physical environment survey along the pipeline corridor in 23 selected areas, including 7 areas within the Punjab Province and 16 areas within the Balochistan Province. Indicative coordinates of these 23 areas are presented in Table 6.4-1 and shown on Figure 6.4-1. The results of this physical environment survey are discussed in Sections 6.4.7 and 6.4.8.

6.4.3.1 Field Survey Strategy

Primary baseline data on the identified physical environment receptors were collected by NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor by means of a visual survey of the ground surface, soil, topography, and geomorphology, and water sampling in selected areas within the PAI. No geotechnical survey data is available for the pipeline corridor.

The physical environment survey focused on visual observations by means of taking notes, a photographic record, and indicative coordinates to characterize the baseline conditions within the 23 selected areas. The level of detail of the observations collected through the field survey was influenced by limitations summarized in Section 6.4.4.

Limited water sampling and in-situ water quality measurements were undertaken at drinking water sources, including groundwater and surface water sources. In addition, water samples collected in the Punjab Province were also submitted for laboratory analysis of metals. Additional attention was given to AGIs (CSs and OSs) and particularly environmentally sensitive areas that may be impacted by the Project.

ESIA_Pakistan_Chapter_6.4_Physical_Environment Page 6.4-2 Table 6.4-1: Indicative Physical Environment Survey Areas Area ID UTM Start End Zone Easting Northing Easting Northing 1 42N 262161.9 3421044.5 265235.7 3419853.2 2 42N 272830.3 3409728.9 277002.7 3406837.3 3 42N 280713.9 3402339.7 282364.7 3401871.4 4 42N 290809.9 3397196.1 292949.5 3395476.1 5 42N 294738.1 3394207.8 295137.1 3392362.3 6 42N 309481.3 3375840.2 314082.0 3375081.1 7 42N 320129.4 3376122.1 326871.0 3375775.0 8 42N 353209.5 3382819.6 361163.7 3381916.1 9 42N 392097.9 3379172.1 399106.0 3377338.2 10 42N 422881.3 3367925.9 430935.9 3364252.1 11 42N 450844.5 3361138.8 463178.1 3354833.7 12 42N 499897.6 3360076.9 505730.5 3359224.4 13 42N 537456.6 3372457.3 528666.8 3371675.5 14 42N 550070.9 3372176.4 554286.7 3370375.1 15 42N 567768.5 3372762.5 557908.5 3372036.2 16 42N 590888.5 3358931.6 598969.5 3353099.4 17 42N 617336.4 3343883.4 633981.3 3337841.3 18 42N 643941.7 3334381.8 657034.7 3332110.8 19 42N 678946.8 3328868.2 668297.8 3328352.8 20 42N 688133.8 3329461.3 677066.3 3327781.6 21 42N 707899.5 3333728.4 726348.7 3330491.1 22 43N 234061.6 3341450.4 224845.0 3338731.3 23 43N 362328.2 3358894.6 399192.3 3358482.6 Source: NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018

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Figure 6.4-1: Physical Environment Survey Areas

Source: Jacobs, 2020

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6.4.3.2 Field Survey Methodology

6.4.3.2.1 Preliminary Desk-Based Research

Satellite images, with areas of human settlement in particular, were reviewed to identify potentially sensitive receptors, wetlands, steep slopes, flood-prone areas, and possible air emission sources.

6.4.3.2.2 Field Survey Activities

The physical environment survey comprised drive-through surveys (stop and go) along the pipeline corridor, within the PAI in general, and in potentially sensitive areas. The field team carried out data collection as described in Appendix B2. Field Work Action Plan.

6.4.3.2.3 Water Quality Parameters for Analysis

In-situ water quality analyses for any recognized drinking water sources were required at a frequency of at least one hand pump, well, or tap for each physical environment survey area identified on Figure 6.4-1, plus at least one sample per village visited within the 500 m pipeline corridor.

A total of 148 water samples, including 136 from groundwater sources and 12 from surface water bodies, were collected and analyzed along the PAI in May 2018. Coordinates were recorded for each sampling location, supported by groundwater well descriptions and photographs.

Given the Project’s activities, in-situ water quality analyses as required by the NEQS for Drinking Water (Pak-EPA, 2010) and the PEQS for Drinking Water (Government of the Punjab, 2016), supported by visual observations, were considered the minimum requirement for the purpose of the ESIA study. The following water quality parameters were analyzed in-situ in all water samples collected, unless specified otherwise:

· Temperature; · pH; · Odor; · Taste; · Color; · Turbidity; · Total hardness (in Punjab only); · Total dissolved solids (TDS); · Conductivity (in Balochistan only); and · Total and fecal coliforms.

In addition, water samples collected within the Punjab Province were also analyzed for metals concentrations in a laboratory. All analytical results were provided to Jacobs for review.

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6.4.3.3 Permissions

NAFTEC/MAB signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Pak-EPA in April 2018 with the aim of obtaining all necessary approvals for its local subcontractor to proceed with field activities. Moreover, an Introduction Letter was submitted to the Pak-EPA endorsing the appointed NAFTEC/MAB subcontractor (EMC) as the official project representative in Pakistan for undertaking field data collection, authority coordination, and stakeholder engagement. EMC then communicated with the Pak-EPA to issue introduction letters to their respective provincial directorates in Punjab and Balochistan, introducing EMC and asking for their cooperation. Authorities in Punjab and Balochistan responded to the letters, mainly by directly contacting the focal person, offering and ensuring their assistance for the successful execution of field survey wherever required. Prior to going into the field, the survey plan was provided to the provincial and district level security officials.

6.4.3.4 QA/QC

Each field team leader of NAFTEC/MAB’s local subcontractor was responsible for complying with the aims of the physical environment survey, namely to ensure that all samples were taken, and all necessary observations and documentation were made in the 23 selected survey areas.

6.4.3.5 Data Records

NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor shared with Jacobs all data collected during the physical environment survey, including visual observation records, photographs, and results of the in-situ and laboratory water quality analyses.

6.4.4 Limitations in Baseline Data Collection

The limitations occurred during the physical environment survey were due to the security threats and issues, extreme remoteness of some of the survey areas, difficult terrain, accessibility, and time constraints. Security was of major concern for the survey in Balochistan, affecting the comprehensiveness of the survey as compared with the one performed in Punjab. Security issues encompassed tribal conflicts, militant sympathizers, and cautious and apprehensive attitude of the local population, in particular tribal elders. Moreover, security restrictions were present in two border areas, namely, the Pakistan-India border in the Okara district and the Afghanistan- Pakistan border at Chaman in the Killa Abdullah district. The area between the Eastern Sadiqia Canal and the Pakistan-India border was restricted at the time of the field survey. The Chaman border was controlled by military forces, requiring identification and prior communication before access. Some of the survey areas, including Area ID 10, 16, and 17, were challenging due to their remoteness, difficult terrain, and difficult access.

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6.4.5 Topography and Geomorphology

Figure 6.4-2 presents the general topography of Pakistan with the 817 km pipeline route (GinkgoMaps, 2017). The pipeline route enters Pakistan from Afghanistan at about 1,450 masl and runs through the mountainous terrain of the Balochistan Province, reaching its maximum elevation of about 2,500 masl. From the highest point, the route descends, passing the Sulaiman Mountain Range with relatively steep slopes before entering the flat, low-lying Indus Plain (elevation of about 125 masl) in the Punjab Province. The pipeline route enters India at an elevation of about 175 masl.

Figure 6.4-2: Pipeline Route Superposed on the Topography of Pakistan

Source: GinkgoMaps, 2017

The northern mountains include the Karakoram, the Himalayas, and the Hindukush mountain ranges with large glaciers feeding the Indus River and its tributaries (namely, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas), forming the lifeblood of Pakistan's irrigation system. The vast drainage area of the Indus River corresponds roughly to the provinces of Punjab and Sind. The Indus Plain in Punjab consists of fine alluvium

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deposited by the Indus River and its tributaries, varying in thickness from about 150 to 300 m. Southward in Sind, the Indus Plain is lower in altitude as it was formed by the deposit of only the Indus River and the alluvium here is of more recent character. The Indus Plain is bound to the west by highlands, which are lower than the northern mountains and are comparatively more arid. The aridity increases in these highlands from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in the north to the Balochistan Province in the south (UNEP, 2013).

The general character of the Balochistan Province is mountainous, with undulating dissected terrains. This area contains the most challenging topographical sections of the pipeline route within Pakistan, namely:

· KP 827 – 844. Crossing of the Khwaja Amran Mountain Range, Kojak Pass area; · KP 918 – 945. Crossing of the dissected mountainous terrain; and · KP 1204 – 1272. Crossing of the Sulaiman Mountain Range.

A summary of the topographical conditions along the pipeline route, based on the Geohazard Assessment Report conducted by ILF in 2017 (ILF, 2017a; 2017b; 2017c) and the physical environment survey of the PAI undertaken in 2018 (NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018). Only a limited number of landslides and rock fall areas were identified in the mountainous areas, and none of them are located directly on the centerline of the pipeline. Because of the semi-arid to arid climate in the western part of Pakistan and the sparsely or missing vegetation cover, badlands and soil erosion are abundant.

Table 6.4-2: Summary of Topographical Conditions Along the Pipeline Route Spread Chainage Description No. Spread 1 KP816 to Pipeline route crosses the Khwaja Amran mountain range, Toba Plateau, Kojak Pass KP916 area, and Pishin Valley. Ground elevation varies from 1,205 m to 2,675 masl, with a variety of geomorphologies, including: · Pediment: shallow inclined pediment with seasonally dry rivers (Nullah); · Mountain range: long central ridges with numerous spurs, undulating, and dissected terrain with steep slopes (>18%) between KP830 and KP841; · Valley of unconsolidated sediment, braided seasonal streams: relatively flat terrain, slightly undulating with agricultural land; and · Badlands and flooding hazards identified along the corridor. KP916 to Pipeline route crosses dissected mountainous terrain (Gawal to Manna). Ground KP977 elevation increases from 2,200 m to 2,500 masl, with undulating and dissected terrain. Some steep slopes between KP922 and KP932 and badlands hazard identified along the corridor. Spread 2 KP977 to Pipeline route crosses dissected mountainous terrain and valleys (Manna to Loralai), KP1062 descending ground elevation from 3,100 m to 924 masl. Pipeline crosses slightly undulating and dissected terrain, hills of earth, sand and limestone with slightly inclined pediment with seasonal streams and flooding hazard. Badlands hazard identified along the corridor. Slope erosion / gullying hazard identified at KP1024 (steep slopes). KP1062 Around Loralai, ground elevation within the corridor varies from 1,200 m to to 1,500 masl. The flat terrain is bound by a major river to the north and higher KP1170 mountainous terrain to the south. The corridor crosses a dense network of tributaries of various sizes. Between KP1111 and KP1132, the route crosses pediment of southern mountain range with flat to undulating topography and crosses several watercourses, while several ridges with slope erosion / gullying hazards were identified between KP1145 and 1152. Badlands and flooding hazards were also identified.

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Spread Chainage Description No. Spread 3 KP1170 Pipeline route crosses the Sulaiman Mountain Range. Ground elevation varies from to 2,020 m to 125 masl. Mainly badlands with some flooding hazards identified along this KP1299 route section. The corridor crosses flat to slightly undulating terrain up to KP1189. From there onwards the terrain becomes more mountainous and dissected. The route crosses the two main ridges of the Sulaiman Mountain Range reaching elevations of 2,020 masl. Terrain is mountainous and some parts very steep (slopes 20% to >30%). Steep sections identified at KP1209 and at several locations between KP1221 and KP1276, especially at KP1240. At KP1275, the corridor leaves the foothills of the Sulaiman Mountain Range (< 300 masl) and enters the flat, lower terrain of the Indus Foredeep in Punjab. Spread 4 KP1299 Pipeline corridor characterized by the flat topography of the Indus Foredeep in to Punjab. Ground elevation is about 125 masl. Flat terrain with agricultural lands KP1438 crossing major rivers and irrigation canals, such as the Indus River (KP1310), the irrigation channel Muzaffargarh, and the Chenab River (KP1360). Spread 5 KP1438 Pipeline crosses a flat topography of the Indus Plain in Punjab. Ground elevation varies to from 125 to 175 masl of terrace gravel deposits and alluvial fan deposits covered by KP1635 dune sand in some places. This is flat terrain with agricultural lands crossing major rivers and irrigation canals, such as the Sidhnai Mailsi Link Channel (KP1450), the Sutlej River (KP1610), and the Fordwah / Eastern Sadiqia Canal (KP1632). The Chenab River carries larger floods than both the Sutlej and Ravi Rivers. Source: NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018; ILF, 2017a, 2017b, and 2017c

6.4.6 Soil and Sub-Surface Geology

6.4.6.1 Geological Setting

The Balochistan Basin is characterized by Late Cretaceous and Tertiary successions composed of limestone, mudstone, sandstone, and volcanic rocks. Some faults are bound by metamorphosed Jurassic ophiolites. Cherts are overlain by thick successions of Cretaceous basinal muds, pillow lavas, and volcaniclastics. The volcanic successions are overlain by late Cretaceous limestone and a thick succession of Paleogene turbiditic shale, sandstone, and conglomerate of the Rakhshani Formation. This was following a period of uplift and relative tectonic stability in the Eocene recorded by platform carbonates and basinal muds. These sediments are overlain by deep marine muds and distal pro-deltaic turbidites of the Oligocene, which shallow upwards in the east into delta front sands and muds of the Oligocene Nauroze Formation (Shah, 2017). Terrestrial to shallow marine clastic and carbonate sediments of the Amalaf Formation were deposited but interrupted by episodic explosive volcanic activity. The Miocene and Pliocene are dominated by continental conglomeratic facies of the Dalbandin Formation. The Mid-Pleistocene to Recent time was dominated by uplift across the Balochistan Province, which led to the deposition of the Kamerod Formation.

Sediments of the Balochistan Basin are mainly recent wind-blown deposits with some lake sediments, many associated with playas. These often also have surface salt deposits caused by evaporation. Unconsolidated Quaternary deposits also occur.

The geology of the Indus River Basin is dominated by Quaternary sediments that are often hundreds of meters thick. The Indus sediments are mainly alluvial and deltaic deposits, consisting mainly of fine-medium sand, silt, and clay. Coarser sands and gravels occur in parts, and especially on the margins of the plain abutting upland

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areas. Wind-blown sands occur to the east of the Indus Plain (Thar and Cholistan Desert areas). Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks occur in a north-south tract to west on the Indus Plain, stretching from Peshawar to the coast. Older (Paleozoic) sediments and crystalline basement rocks (granites, metamorphic rocks) are mainly restricted to the north (WAPDA/EUAD, 1989). The geological age and lithology of the units along the pipeline route are presented in Table 6.4-3.

Table 6.4-3: Geological Units Along the Pipeline Route

Epoch Geological Units Holocene Indus Plain - Stream deposits: flood-plain deposits; streambed and meander-belt deposits. Deposits of extinct streams: flood-plain deposits. Balochistan Basin - Alluvium and extrusive mud; unconsolidated surficial deposits. Pleistocene Indus Plain - Chung formation: Loess deposits of the upper terrace; loess and flood plain deposits of the middle terrace. Eolian sand deposits, deposits of extinct streams. East Pakistan - Piedmont deposits: detrital material derived from the highlands of India and Burma and deposited on gentle slope to the south and west. Pliocene and Indus River Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: mostly shale, sandstone and Miocene conglomerate. Eocene Indus River Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: mostly limestone, marl, shale. Miocene and Balochistan Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: mostly shale and sandstone, limestone. Oligocene Paleocene Indus River Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: alternating shale, sandstone, limestone. Jurassic Indus River Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: mostly limestone and interbedded shale. Cretaceous Balochistan Basin - Sedimentary rocks formations: sandstones, limestone, marl and shale. it and Jurassic includes interlayered volcanic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks. Source: Geological Survey of Pakistan, 1964

The physical environment survey conducted in May 2018 provided information on the ground conditions along pipeline route (from Spread 1 to Spread 5), as summarized in Table 6.4-4.

Table 6.4-4: Summary of Anticipated Geological Conditions Along the Pipeline Route

Spread Chainage Anticipated Ground Conditions No. Spread 1 KP816 to Khwaja Amran mountain range to Pishin Valley is dominated by Bedrock (Flysch - KP916 sandstone and conglomerate in varying proportions), with unconsolidated colluvium and alluvium deposits of clay, and silt to the valley floor. The NNE-SSW striking, left lateral Chaman strike-slip fault is encountered at KP826. The NNE-SSW striking, left lateral Ghazaband strike-slip fault is encountered at KP890. KP916 to Dominated by bedrock (limestone, shale, sandstone, and conglomerate), with KP977 unconsolidated colluvium and alluvium deposits of clay, and silt to the valley floor. Spread 2 KP977 to Pipeline route crosses mountainous terrain between Manna to Loralai, where bedrock KP1062 (prevailing tilted and folded interbedded limestone and shale) with some outcrops of sandstone and some colluvium up to KP989 are present, while alluvium for the remaining part of the section. KP1062 to Ground conditions are dominated by alluvial deposits. Bedrock (prevailing limestone) KP1170 and colluvium is expected where ridges are crossed. After KP1148, bedrock (limestone) is present and colluvium increases. Spread 3 KP1170 to Pipeline route crosses the Sulaiman Mountain Range. Up to KP1208, ground KP1299 conditions are expected to be dominated by colluvial deposits and bedrock (prevailing interbedded limestone and shale). At KP1202, the pipeline route crosses the Kingri Fault followed by plate boundary (about KP1282). Up to KP1282, ground conditions are dominated by bedrock (limestone, shale, sandstone, conglomerate) and colluvium. Alluvial deposits are confined to sections where river valleys are crossed. After KP1282, only alluvium prevails over bedrock.

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Spread Chainage Anticipated Ground Conditions No. Spread 4 KP1299 to Ground conditions comprised of Quaternary deposits of streambeds, meander belt and KP1635 deposits, and floodplain alluvial deposits of sand, silt, and gravel within the Indus Spread 5 Plain in Punjab. Notes: NNW = north-northeast SSW = south-southwest Source: NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018; ILF, 2017d

6.4.6.2 Seismotectonic Setting and Faults

The western part of the Himalayan collision zone is comprised of a series of NNE– SSW left-lateral strike-slip faults (including the well-known, westernmost Chaman Fault) and a ribbon of fold-thrust belts to the east. This is the most seismically active region of Pakistan. These fold-thrust belts divide Pakistan topographically and tectonically into a mountainous belt running from the Salt Range in the northeast, down to the Sulaiman and Kirthar Mountain Ranges in the southwest, which sits beside the flat lowlands of the Indian Plate.

Pakistan geologically overlaps both the Indian and the Eurasian tectonic plates. The Sindh and Punjab Provinces lie on the north-western corner of the Indian Plate, while the Balochistan Province and most of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province lie within the Eurasian Plate that mainly comprises the Iranian Plateau, some parts of the Middle East, and Central Asia. The northern areas and Azad Kashmir lie mainly in Central Asia along the edge of the Indian Plate and, as a result, are prone to violent earthquakes where the two tectonic plates collide (ILF, 2017d).

The TAPI pipeline crosses active fault zones (thrust faults, active faults and the plate boundary crossing) in Pakistan as shown on Figure 6.4-3. From west to east, the pipeline crosses the major Chaman Fault, adjacent to the border with Afghanistan, followed by the Ghazaband Fault, then enters a region of active seismicity and thrust faulting near Quetta, extending for 30 km along the Kingri Fault and then crosses the plate boundary. Following the Kingri Fault, the TAPI pipeline route enters a low seismicity area at the Indus Plain up to the Pakistan-Indian border.

Route selection in relation to seismic risk is discussed in Section 2.2.2 Route and Project Alternatives and Section 2.2.3 Comparison and Selection of Alternatives.

The Chaman transform boundary of Pakistan and Afghanistan demarks the western boundary of the India Plate with the Eurasia Plate. The north-south striking boundary accommodates left-lateral displacements as the India Plate moves at approximately 36 millimeters per year (mm/yr) relative to the Eurasia Plate (Barnhart, 2016).

The three potentially active faults identified along the pipeline route from west to east, as shown on Figure 6.4-3 and Figure 6.4-4, are (ILF, 2017a):

· The Chaman Fault; · The Ghazaband Fault; and · The Kingri Fault.

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Figure 6.4-3: Major Tectonic Regions of Pakistan

Source: Farah and DeJong, 1984

Figure 6.4-4: Active Faults (Yellow) Along the Pipeline (Red)

Source: ILF, 2017a

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6.4.6.2.1 The Chaman Fault

The Chaman Fault system is one of the longest (approximately 1,000 km) strike-slip faults forming the western boundary of the India Plate with the Eurasia Plate. The Chaman Fault system consists of three major predominantly active left-lateral strike- slip faults, including Ornach Nal Fault, Ghazaband Fault, and Chaman Fault. The Chaman Fault exhibits both creeping and inter-seismically locked segments along strike. Inter-seismically locked faults are expected to generate earthquakes through rapid coseismic slip after a period of elastic strain accrual. Peak-documented creep rates on the fault are 9 to 12 mm/yr, accounting for 25% to 33% of the total motion between the India Plate and the Eurasia Plate.

In the morning of May 31st, 1935, an earthquake estimated at magnitude 7.7 occurred from movement on the Chaman Fault (Pararas-Carayannis, 2018). The epicenter of the earthquake was determined to be 4 km to the southwest of the town of Ali Jaan in Balochistan, some 153 km away from Quetta City. The earthquake caused destruction in almost all the towns close to Quetta, including the city itself, and tremors were felt as far as Agar in India. Widespread liquefaction was observed in the valley to the northwest of Quetta and mud volcanoes erupted in this area.

More recently, on May 13th, 2016, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake was recorded near Qilla Abdullah along the Chaman Fault (Huang and Khan, 2016; Barnhart, 2016).

6.4.6.2.2 The Ghazaband Fault

The Ghazaband Fault strikes subparallel to the Chaman Fault and originates near Quetta, the Ghazaband transitions to a more eastward strike and merges with thrust faults of the Sulaiman Hills (Figure 6.4-5). It has been estimated that the slip rate of the Ghazaband Fault is 14 to 18 mm/yr (Barnhart, 2016).

6.4.6.2.3 The Kingri Fault

The Kingri Fault is an important north-south trending, left-lateral strike-slip fault of the eastern Sulaiman Mountain Range. Evidence along the Kingri Fault, such as stream offsets and the continuation of the fault trace through alluvial materials, indicates Holocene movement. The Kingri Fault seems to be a zone of differential simple shear rather than a tear fault which cut across the pre-existing structural features.

6.4.6.2.4 Other Faults

The geometry of the major faults can be quite complex comprising of several fault strands and splays (Figure 6.4-5). Consequently, a major fault crossing can comprise several fault crossings at a spacing of several meters to some hundreds of meters.

In addition to the above listed major faults, several thrust faults may be crossed by the pipeline alignment. The mountain ranges west of the Indus Lowland are a fault and thrust belt in tectonic terms.

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Figure 6.4-5: Chaman Fault System within Southern Asia

Source: Barnhart, 2016

As shown on Figure 6.4-5, there are several zones with higher seismicity potential, mainly along known active faults. Seismicity within the Chaman transform boundary varies substantially among known faults. The largest earthquakes in the region to date include the 2013 Balochistan earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 on the Hoshab Fault, and the 1931 Mach earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 and the 1935 Quetta earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 on or near the Ghazaband Fault. The Ornach Fault has produced no known major or destructive earthquakes since a 5.9 magnitude earthquake recorded in 1974 (Barnhart, 2016).

Figure 6.4-6 indicates the seismicity along the pipeline route. The color coding on Figure 6.4-6 indicates the range of expected peak ground acceleration in m/s, over a 475-year design event, which is equivalent to an event with a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years. The zone of the highest seismicity occurs around the Chaman and Ghazaband Faults, which are likely to present the greatest challenge along the entire pipeline route. This will require special large displacement accommodating design features.

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Figure 6.4-6: Seismicity Along the Pipeline Route

Source: ILF, 2017a

6.4.6.3 Soils Units

According to the Soil Survey of Pakistan (1962 to 1973), the main soil orders in the country are Alfisols, Aridisols, Entisols, Inceptisols, Molisols, and Vertisols. These are summarized in Table 6.4-5.

Table 6.4-5: Soil Orders Typical of Pakistan Soil Order Description Alfisols Mineral soils relatively low in organic matter with relatively high saturation in base elements (such as calcium and sodium). Many have alluvial clay particles concentrated by water in the soil profile with generally sufficient soil moisture to mature an agricultural crop. Aridisols Mineral soil low in organic matter that can have some developed soil horizons but not enough soil moisture to mature a crop. Entisols Mineral soils with weak or no developed soil horizons and variable moisture content and deep wide cracks in most years. Inceptisols Mineral soils with some developed soil horizons other than of alluvial clays, and moisture is available to mature a crop. Mollisols Mineral soils with thick dark topsoils relatively rich in organic matter and with a high saturation of base elements (commonly calcium-rich). Vertisols Clay-rich soils with deep wide cracks in most years depending upon variable moisture content. Source: Khan, 2012

Shallow heterogeneous soil materials and loamy soils, such as Entisols and Inceptisols, are expected along the pipeline route in the western dry mountains of the Balochistan Basin, which comprises barren hills with steep slopes. The pipeline route is likely to cross soils of the Entisols and Aridisols orders in the Punjab Province, mainly loamy and clayey soils of sub-recent river plains. Hilly sandy soils of aeolian

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deserts to loamy/sandy stratified soils of the recent river plains lie within the Indus Plain. Loamy and clayey saline soils are also expected in the pediment plains within the Sulaiman Piedmont, where irrigation relies on floods of the hill streams.

6.4.6.4 Potential Land Contamination

During the physical environmental survey of the PAI in May 2018, minor soil contamination was observed at the locations of diesel-powered pumps associated with groundwater abstraction wells in the Punjab Province. This was not observed in the Balochistan Province due to the prevalence of solar-powered pumps used to abstract groundwater from the wells instead.

6.4.7 Groundwater Resources

6.4.7.1 Main Aquifers in Pakistan

The most significant aquifer system in the country can be found in the Indus Plain. A hydrogeological divide exists between the Indus Plain and the mountains of the Balochistan region, as in indicated on Figure 6.4-7.

The aquifers of the Indus Plain are generally unconfined and have hydraulic connectivity with the surface. The Indus Plain was formed by sediment deposits from the Indus River and its tributaries, and is underlain by a highly transmissive, moderately thick, unconfined aquifer. Within the Indus Plain aquifers, groundwater tables are typically shallow and groundwater yields are typically between 50 and 300 m3 per hour for wells down to 150 m below ground surface. In the Punjab Province, most groundwater supplies are fresh and groundwater levels are shallow. Exceptions are areas of saline groundwater in the center of the interfluvia (‘doab’).

The Balochistan Province is geologically more complex. The formations consist of limestone, sandstone, and shale formations alternating with sands, silt, and gravel deposits. The aquifers in this region are generally confined, yielding only limited quantities of groundwater. The quality of groundwater in some parts of Balochistan is unsuitable for agriculture. Aquifers with higher discharge potential exist locally, in valleys, alluvial fans, and areas with ample surface water resources.

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Figure 6.4-7: Hydrogeological Map of Pakistan

Source: Steenbergen and Oliemans, 1997

6.4.7.2 Groundwater Use and Recharge

Pakistan has a long tradition of using groundwater for agricultural purposes. As a leading exporter of water-intensive crops, such as rice, Pakistan uses more global groundwater for agricultural exports than any other country. On account of a highly arid climate in the Indus Plain, extensive irrigation uses groundwater resources and a widespread canal system that distributes water from the Indus River and its main tributaries across the adjacent plains.

Farmers in the Indus Plain have been using underground tunnels, known as karezes, to irrigate their land for thousands of years. The existence of karezes in Balochistan was documented by Greek travelers as long as 2,500 years ago. Karezes can be considered as an underground aqueduct, which capture shallow groundwater lenses and aquifers and channel the water by gravity to downstream fields and villages. Vertical maintenance shafts connect each karez to the surface, allowing periodic cleanout of the tunnel. Figure 6.4-8 presents the cross-section of a typical karez.

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Figure 6.4-8: Cross-Section of a Typical Karez

Source: Gouldie, 1977

A dramatic increase in the use of fresh groundwater resources (for example, from 8% to more than 40% in Punjab) took place in the period 1960 to 1985 by private and public pumping schemes, using shallow and deep tube wells. The purpose of the groundwater exploitation was to:

· Control water logging and high groundwater tables in the Indus Plain. Inadequate provision of drainage facilities during the development of the canal irrigation system in the Indus Plain resulted in rising groundwater levels and waterlogging, followed by salinization of the soil due to capillary rise and evaporation. Large tube well drainage schemes were therefore implemented to lower the groundwater table and to augment surface irrigation supplies; and · Promote tube wells for agricultural development in Balochistan and Punjab.

The focus of groundwater policy was on the control of waterlogging and stimulation of private tube well development, with little concern about over-exploitation or deteriorating groundwater quality. In several fresh groundwater areas in the Indus Plain, groundwater levels now have declined due to private tube well development. Salinization through capillary rise is no longer a threat but intense groundwater pumping poses other threats to soil and water quality. Outside the canal areas, the large number of tube wells have resulted in groundwater mining.

The groundwater table is lowering, particularly in Balochistan, due to over-pumping. Groundwater use in Balochistan exceeds the anticipated recharge rate by approximately 22%. In terms of sectoral use, agriculture is, and will remain to be, the predominant user of water in the future. Simultaneously, the requirements for industrial, municipal, and domestic use will continue to increase. Studies suggest that the Quetta sub-basin may exhaust the aquifer storage within 20 years (UNEP, 2013).

As a result of groundwater over-exploitation, land subsidence was reported in Quetta and the Quetta Valley. Groundwater depletion was also observed in Kuchlak of the

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Pishin Lora Basin, which is an intermountain valley. The local shallow alluvial aquifer was over-stressed in time, leading to groundwater depletion. Quetta and Kuchlak are located approximately 30 km and 20 km away from the pipeline, respectively.

The main groundwater policy in Pakistan relates to environmental sustainability and welfare, specifically, how to avoid declining groundwater tables and deteriorating groundwater quality in fresh groundwater areas and how to ensure equal access to this natural resource.

The predominant source of water for the people living along the pipeline corridor in Balochistan and Punjab is groundwater. In Balochistan, the prevailing method for groundwater abstraction is the use of solar-powered tube wells. Perennial rivers and seasonal streams mainly receive water flows during rainfall; therefore, they cannot be solely relied upon as a source of water. Karez systems are present in the Killa Abdullah District. In Punjab, the groundwater is mainly extracted by diesel- powered pumps fitted to tube wells. Groundwater is also abstracted by hand pumps when the groundwater is shallow.

Equally, the source of drinking water for local people is mainly groundwater. Shared taps for villages were identified in the Punjab Province. No established drinking water supply scheme was identified in the villages or communities along the pipeline corridor in Balochistan or Punjab.

6.4.7.3 Groundwater Quality

6.4.7.3.1 General Groundwater Quality

Quality of shallow groundwater is a main issue near urban areas, where industries discharge wastewater directly to the ground (Penspen, 2015). Uncontrolled discharge of industrial effluents has affected surface and groundwater, identifying the presence of lead, chromium, and cyanide in groundwater samples from industrial areas. Wastewater that is discharged into natural streams or used in irrigation ultimately finds its way into groundwater (UNEP, 2013). Microbial contamination exists due to the intermixing of sewer lines with drinking water supply lines. This has largely affected the availability of clean drinking water.

The fifth phase of the National Water Quality Monitoring Program by the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources was completed in 2005-2006. According to this survey, bacterial, arsenic, nitrate, and fluoride contamination are common in the water supply of all major urban areas of Pakistan. In addition, much of the Indus Plain is likely to have elevated arsenic concentrations (higher than 10 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), mainly along the Indus River and its tributaries; however, the lack of resources in Pakistan has apparently prevented the comprehensive evaluation of arsenic in groundwater (Podgorski et al., 2017). Groundwater contamination has been attributed to the presence and direct disposal of untreated industrial wastes (as arsenic is used in insecticides, poisons, wood preservation, and coloring agents) and, more recently, to pH-induced arsenic release and accumulation in unconfined

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aquifers along the Indus River and its tributaries. Very high arsenic concentrations (higher than 200 mg/L) were measured primarily in the southern half of the Indus Plain between 2013 and 2015. Unlike other arsenic-contaminated areas of Asia, the arsenic release process in the arid Indus Plain appears to be dominated by elevated pH dissolution, resulting from alkaline topsoil and extensive irrigation of unconfined aquifers (Podgorski et al., 2017).

Increases in the concentration of nitrogen species in groundwater are likely to be a result of pollution from sewage and agricultural sources. Applications of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers have been increasing in Pakistan over the last few decades. Agricultural inputs are likely to be worse in the Punjab Province, where agricultural productivity is higher.

One of the main problems with groundwater quality, mainly in the Punjab Province, is high salinity resulted from waterlogging of salinized soils due to irrigation, dissolution of salts in the sediments, and evaporation under the arid conditions. This problem affects the groundwater in large parts of the Punjab and Balochistan Provinces.

6.4.7.3.2 Field Survey Results

In May 2018, 136 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed within the pipeline corridor, of which 73 (54%) were collected from the Balochistan Province and 63 (46%) from the Punjab Province.

Water samples from the Balochistan Province were collected from a variety of sources, including a lorry-mounted bowser, private water bottles and kettles, hand- pumped wells, pipes, and surface water bodies. These samples were analyzed in-situ for temperature, pH, odor, taste, color, turbidity, TDS, conductivity, and total and fecal coliforms. In-situ analytical results were compared to the NEQS for Drinking Water (Pak-EPA, 2010).

Water samples from the Punjab Province were collected from hand-pumped wells, taps, and flowing pipes. These samples were analyzed in-situ for temperature, pH, odor, taste, color, turbidity, total hardness, TDS, and total and fecal coliforms. In addition, water samples collected within Punjab were analyzed in a laboratory for a suite of metals. In-suite and laboratory analytical results were compared to the PEQS for Drinking Water (Government of the Punjab, 2016).

All samples were reported as suitable for drinking water use based on the parameters analyzed. Of the 73 Balochistan Province water samples, 33 were recorded to have elevated turbidity and 24 had detectable fecal coliforms in any 100 milliliter (mL) sample, compared to the NEQS for Drinking Water (Pak-EPA, 2010). Of the 63 Punjab Province water samples, 12 were recorded to contain elevated turbidity and 38 had detectable fecal coliforms in any 100 mL sample, compared to the PEQS for Drinking Water (Government of the Punjab, 2016). In addition, 4 Punjab samples were recorded to contain elevated salinity (chloride).

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6.4.7.4 Anticipated Groundwater Conditions Along Pipeline Route

No information was available relating to existing groundwater levels along the pipeline route at the time of writing. A high groundwater table is expected at river crossings in the mountainous pipeline section west of the Indus Lowland in Balochistan, and along the Indus Lowland in Punjab (ILF, 2017a).

An indication of historical groundwater levels and depths in the Punjab Province is available for 1960 from the US Geological Survey hydrogeological map, showing the depth to groundwater and groundwater levels.

The following general summary is given for the anticipated groundwater conditions along the pipeline route:

· The historical groundwater map indicates the main groundwater flow direction in Punjab is from northeast to southwest. The map provides information related to the historical hydraulic head distribution between chainages KP1320 and KP1625; · No information is available from the Balochistan Province; however, it is anticipated that shallow groundwater will only be encountered in valleys and alluvial fans and pediments; · Risks of waterlogging is identified due to high groundwater table at irrigation canals; · Pishin and Quetta areas in the Balochistan Province are facing severe water shortages due to extensive cultivation of fruit; · High groundwater table (waterlogging hazard) is expected throughout the entire pipeline section in the Indus Plain; and · The historical groundwater level identified in 1960 varied between 117 and 168 masl. This corresponds to a depth to groundwater varying from 3 m to 9 m below ground.

6.4.8 Surface Water Resources

6.4.8.1 Water Basins in Pakistan

The major source of surface water in Pakistan is the Indus River and its tributaries. The left bank of the Indus River flows in shallow meandering channels across the vast alluvial plain, gently sloping towards the -south-southwest along rivers with extremely flat gradients of about 0.02% in Punjab (UNEP, 2013). No perennial rivers are present in the Balochistan Province. The flows in the river basins outside the Indus River Basin, the Makran Coast, and the Karan Closed Basin appear during flash floods and do not have a perennial supply. They account for a total flow of less than 5 cubic kilometers (km3) per year (Penspen, 2015).

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Pakistan can be divided into three hydrological units, as follows:

· The transboundary Indus River Basin extends to a total area of 1.12 million square kilometers (km2), which is distributed between the countries of Pakistan (47%), India (39%), China (8%) and Afghanistan (6%), as shown on Figure 6.4-9. Within Pakistan, the Indus River Basin covers an area of more than 520,000 km2, or 65% of the territory, comprising all the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the eastern part of Balochistan. The Indus River has two main tributaries, namely, the Kabul on the right bank and the Panjnad on the left bank. The flow of the Panjnad results from five main rivers (literally Punjab means ‘five waters’), namely, the Jhelum and Chenab (known as the western rivers) and the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej (known as the eastern rivers); · The Karan Desert west of Balochistan in western Pakistan is an endorheic basin covering 18 % of the territory. The Mashkel and Marjen Rivers are the principal source of water in the basin. The Marjen is a minor tributary to the Mashkel. The water is discharged into the Hamun-i-Mashkel Lake in the southwest, on the border with the Islamic Republic of Iran; and · The arid Makran Coast, along the Arabian Sea, covers 17% of the territory in its southwestern part (Balochistan Province). The Hob, Porali, Hingol, and Dasht are the principal rivers in this coastal zone.

All the rivers of the Indus system are perennial. About 60% of the rainfall in the monsoonal climate is received from July to September. Given the seasonal nature of the Himalayan runoff, roughly 85% of the annual flows are in the Kharif season (summer), and only 15% in the Rabi season (winter).

The extreme variability in seasonal rainfall directly affects river flows, which vary considerably during the Rabi and the Kharif seasons. In the northern areas, at altitudes of more than 5,000 masl, snowfall exceeds 5,000 mm/yr and provides the largest resource of water in the glaciated zone. Around 92% of the country’s area is classified as semi-arid to arid, facing extreme shortage of precipitation.

Within the Indus River Basin, there are large hydropower dams and numerous smaller barrages intended to divert water into irrigation canals. Most of the irrigated area is classified as semi-arid to arid (Ali, 2013).

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Figure 6.4-9: Indus River Basin

Source: FAO, 2011

6.4.8.2 Surface Water Bodies Crossings

There are many different rivers and streams scattered along the pipeline route corridor within Pakistan. The most important river crossings are those of the Indus River Basin. The Indus River is characterized by a braided river with multiple active channels and bars or islands in between. The layout of the Indus River defined by its channels and bars or islands can change rapidly during a single flood event. The same characteristics are reported for the Chenab River and Sutlej River crossings

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(ILF, 2017e). In winter (during the November-February period), river flows are much lower, at less than one-tenth of those in the summer monsoon months. Because rainfall is heavily concentrated during monsoon months, there is a notable fluctuation between maximum and minimum discharge rates for each river. The Indus River, which is primarily supplied by glaciers, is subject to the least seasonal variation, though its maximum flow is more than fifty time its minimum (UNEP, 2013).

The pipeline will cross a total of 863 rivers or streams and 345 irrigation canals along its route. Crossings over natural watercourses have been classified into five categories (RVX1 to RVX5) depending on the river width, ranging from mountain torrent/gully that are less than 10 m in width to major rivers that are wider than 100 m (ILF, 2017f). Similarly, canal crossings are classified into four categories (ICX-1 to ICX-4) based on their size and whether they are lined. The area of impact from watercourse crossings is discussed in Section 6.5 Ecology and Biodiversity Baseline. The crossings are listed by category in Table 6.4-6 for natural watercourses and in Table 6.4-7 for canals. The full lists of natural watercourse and canal crossings are presented in Appendix C3.1 and C3.2, respectively.

Table 6.4-6: Number of River and Stream Crossings by Spread and Classification Classification Spread Total 1 2 3 4 5 KP 816 - KP 977 - KP 1,170 KP 1,280 KP 1,438 977 1,170 - 1,280 - 1,438 - 1,635 Major River / Nullah (RVX 1) 3 5 2 2 1 13 Large River / Nullah (RVX 2) 9 20 3 0 0 32 Medium River / Nullah (RVX 3) 78 180 44 0 1 303 Small River / Nullah (RVX 4) 75 280 45 1 0 401 Mountain Torrent / Gully (RVX 5) 46 37 31 0 0 114 Total 211 522 125 3 2 863

Table 6.4-7: Number Canal Crossings by Spread and Classification

Classification Spread Total 1 2 3 4 5 KP 816- KP 977- KP 1,170 KP 1,280 KP 1,438 977 1,170 - 1,280 - 1,438 - 1,635 Major lined or unlined Canal (ICX-1) 0 0 3 14 10 27 Lined Canal (ICX-2) 0 0 0 0 2 2 Large Unlined Canal (ICX-3) 0 0 0 4 1 5 Small Unlined Canal (ICX-4) 6 1 12 82 210 311 Total 6 1 15 100 223 345

Major crossings along the pipeline route in Balochistan and Punjab are shown on Figure 6.4-10 and 6.4-11, respectively. The largest river crossings are planned along the Indus, Chenab, and Sutlej Rivers in the Punjab Province, as indicated on Figure 6.4-11. Each of these crossings will be longer than 1 km. Ground conditions at these crossing locations are expected to comprise stream beds, meander belt deposits, and floodplain deposits of sand and silt, with lenses and layers of gravel and cobbles in between (NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018). An active zone assessment for the major crossings along watercourses is summarized in Table 6.4-8.

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Figure 6.4-10: Major Crossings Along the Pipeline Route in Balochistan

Source: ILF, 2017f

Figure 6.4-11: Major Crossings Along the Pipeline Route in Punjab

Source: ILF, 2017f

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Table 6.4-8: Active Zone Assessment of Major River Crossing in Punjab River Name Minimum Active Width (m) Minimum Active Depth (m) Indus 1,165 Several meters below deepest point of river along crossing Chenab 1,100 alignment Sutlej 1,090

6.4.8.3 Dams and Barrages

The total designed live storage capacity of the three large hydropower dams in the Indus River Basin in 2005 was 22.98 km3 (Tarbela 11.96 km3, Raised Mangla 10.15 km3, which includes raising of 3.58 km3, and Chashma 0.87 km3). The current live storage capacity of these hydropower dams is 17.89 km3, representing an overall loss of storage of 22 % (FAO, 2011).

Barrages are constructed to divert river water into canals and the storage capacity is insignificant. Water in the Indus River Basin system is diverted by barrages and weirs into main canals and subsequently branch canals, distributaries, and minors.

Dams and barrages in the Indus River Basin nearest to the pipeline route are shown on Figure 6.4-12.

Figure 6.4-12: Dams and Barrages in the Indus River Basin

Source: Modified from the FAO, 2011

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6.4.8.4 Surface Water Use

Over the years, various demands on the Indus River, especially for irrigation purposes, has led to substantial pressures on Pakistan’s water resources. Estimated 69% of the inland water in Pakistan is being used for irrigation, while 23% is utilized by industries, and the remaining 8% goes into municipal water supply for domestic consumption.

In addition to problems arising from river water withdrawal, improper irrigation has created several ecological problems. Due to age, overuse, and poor maintenance, canal water delivery is extremely poor and contributes to waterlogging and salinization. Historical data shows that groundwater table has risen due to seepage from reservoirs and irrigation channels at an average rate of 15 to 35 centimeters per year since modern irrigation was introduced. The side effects of irrigation are therefore evident in waterlogging, salinization, alkalization, increased incidence of diseases such as malaria, loss of forest cover, and genetic diversity as well as consequences associated with these (UNEP, 2013). Simultaneously, excessive water withdrawal, according to estimates, has resulted in seawater intrusion.

6.4.8.5 Surface Water Quality

6.4.8.5.1 General Surface Water Quality

Chemical and biological water quality of the upper Indus River and its tributaries is reported to be excellent, although they can carry high sediment loads. However, disposal of effluents (including agricultural drainage water and municipal and industrial wastewater) into rivers, canals, and drains is causing deterioration of water quality in the downstream parts. The polluted water is also being used for drinking in downstream areas, causing numerous water-borne diseases.

Surface water quality has become a problem due to pollution from silt, salt, inadequate sewage treatment infrastructure, and industrial wastewater discharge. When river flow is at its peak, high concentrations of suspended solids are also observed. It is clear that these water bodies are contaminated with fecal matters and in need of proper processing before human use. In Pakistan, four major cities have been using surface water for drinking water, including Islamabad, Karachi, Rawalpindi, and Hyderabad. The increasing number and size of human settlements in the vicinity of water bodies is a major cause of severe stress on the aquatic resources. Only 1% of urban wastewater is treated in Pakistan, while the rest is discharged into ravines, streams, and rivers (UNEP, 2013).

6.4.8.5.2 Field Survey Results

In May 2018, 12 surface water samples were collected and analyzed within the pipeline corridor (refer to Appendix G for further details). Only one of the 12 surface water samples was reported as suitable for drinking water based on the NEQS for Drinking Water (Pak-EPA, 2010) and the PEQS for Drinking Water (Government of

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the Punjab, 2016). 9 surface water samples were reported to contain elevated turbidity and 8 samples contained fecal coliforms.

6.4.9 Erosion and Sedimentation

Erosion occurs when soils are gradually damaged and moved from their original location by natural processes. The most common erosive forces are water and wind. The dynamic processes of freezing and thawing can also increase weathering of areas which can weaken the ground and make it susceptible to erosion.

The main factors affecting erosion rates are as follows:

· Climate, which affects erosion mainly in relation to the rate or volume of rainfall on a region (greater rainfall generally leads to greater erosion); · Vegetative cover, which helps to prevent erosion by reducing the impact force of raindrops on the ground and by providing a level of protection to the ground surface against wind and water flows; · Topography, which topography determines the speed of runoff flows, and the speed of flow is a main contributor to the erosive power of water; and · Human development, which also changes the erosive potential of lands. By clearing natural vegetation to allow for cultivation, the level of protection against wind and water driven erosion is frequently reduced.

Sedimentation occurs when there is a reduction in the flow velocity of a water body which contains particles in suspension. The particles are kept in suspension when the velocity is high due to the turbulent nature of the flow, but once velocities reduce due to shallower slopes or lakes the particles begin to settle out of the water. When the particles fully settle out, they become sediments on the bed of the river or lake. Flood plains also tend to be prone to sedimentation since flows tend to be low away from main river channels.

Sedimentation can have severe consequences, particularly for dams. It was reported by the World Bank in 2005 that the three large dams on the Indus River had lost 22% of their original designed storage due to sedimentation (FAO, 2011). In 2008, because of the raising of the Mangla Dam, the loss resulting from sedimentation was recovered. However, raising existing dams is not usually possible, and removing sediments from reservoirs is very expensive. Given the high silt loads from the young Himalayas, there is a need for the continuous addition of storage just to replace capacity that has been lost because of sedimentation.

Potential scour was investigated as part of the hydrological study for Pakistan (ILF, 2017e). Scour is the removal of material from the bed and banks of a channel and from around structure foundations by the action of water. It may occur as a result of natural changes of flow in the channel, as part of longer-term morphological changes to the river, or as a result of human activities, such as the building of structures in the channel or the dredging of material from the bed. In a river, scour is normally most pronounced when the bed and river banks consist of granular alluvial materials.

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Scour calculations provided by ILF (ILF, 2017e) are based on the regime equation developed by Blench, which was considered appropriate for the pipeline works in the region. The analysis was based on estimated data rather than on hydraulic measurements. Indicative values for them were obtained from Google Earth terrain data. Slope, width, water depth, and scour depth of river beds for larger river and canal crossings as presented in Table 6.4-9. The estimated scour potential found varies from 0.47 m on the Arambi Manda crossing to 6.60 m on the Chenab River crossing.

Table 6.4-9: Indicative Values for Scour Calculation Name of Major Chainage Discharge Slope (%) Width (m) Water Scour Watercourse Rate (m3/s) Depth (m) Depth (m) Crossing Balochistan Province Shargale Man(da) 1,011.5 69.2 2.7 60 0.47 1.25 Machka Nullah 850.4 180.3 1 90 0.89 1.58 Arambi Manda 861.1 44.3 1 125 0.32 0.47 Surkhab Lora 881.5 333.5 1 40 2.15 4.19 Aghbarg Man(da) 1,054.6 51.2 1 35 0.74 1.27 Loralai River -1 1,101.8 332.9 2 80 1.12 2.89 Loralai River-2 1,108.5 400.3 1.5 90 1.27 2.92 Khajuri River 1,187.7 93.9 1 45 0.92 1.62 Kingri River 1,201.6 112.6 1 90 0.67 1.14 Anambar River 1,113.8 2,245.5 0.4 200 3.29 4.43 Punjab Province Indus River 1,316.3 35,000 0.03 960 14.50 4.76 Chenab River 1,365.9 28,000 0.05 800 12.50 6.60 Sutlej River 1,611.9 1,500 0.05 460 11.70 6.19 Dera Ghazi Khan 1,292.2 283 0.05 45 4.65 1.39 Ca(nal) Muzaffargarh Canal 1,325.4 245 0.05 55 3.70 1.11 SMB Link Canal 1,457.6 334 0.05 50 4.75 1.53 100 Wali Canal / 1,593.2 171 0.05 55 2.95 0.84 Upper Pakpattan Source: ILF, 2017e

6.4.10 Flood Risk

In the Indus River Basin, monsoonal rains are the most important flood-causing factor, followed by the size, shape, and land-use of the catchments, and by the conveyance capacity of the corresponding streams as shown on Figure 6.4-13 and Figure 6.4-14. The monsoon weather system originates in the Bay of Bengal, and the resultant depressions often give rise to heavy rains in the Himalayan foothills. The monsoon rains fall from June to September and are generally intense and widespread.

The weather systems from the Arabian Sea (seasonal lows) and the Mediterranean (westerly waves) also occasionally produce destructive floods in the basin.

As discussed in Chapter 7.9. Climate Change Impact Assessment, climate change is a greater driver of change in population exposure to river floods than socioeconomic development, because both the frequency and intensity of river floods is expected to

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increase due to climate change in many areas. This phenomenon would expand flood- prone areas and make floods more likely to occur in those areas more often.

Figure 6.4-13: Pipeline Route Superposed on the Flood Map of Pakistan

Source: World Resources Institute, 2018

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Figure 6.4-14: Pipeline Route Superposed on Flood Zones and Affected Districts

Source: OCHA, 2010

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Twenty-one very large floods occurred between 1950 and 2010 in the Indus River Basin, causing cumulative direct economic losses of about 19 billion US dollars (USD) (in 2010 value), killing 8,887 people, and damaging or destroying a total of 109,822 villages (within an area of around 446,000 km2) (Ali, 2013). The Punjab Province is vulnerable to river floods and hill torrents frequently occurred since 2010. Punjab faces floods in varying intensity almost every year (PDMAP, 2017).

In the Indus Lowland, flooding may be an issue in the vicinity of the rivers of Indus, Chenab, and Sutlej. Along the Indus and Chenab Rivers, guide bunds have been established to control river flow at the crossing sites. According to available information, these bunds are designed for a 1:100 flood event. No guide bunds exist at the proposed crossing on the Sutlej River.

Apart from flooding along rivers and streams, where confined runoff is prevailing, areas where sheet flooding is expected were identified along the pipeline route during the routing selection assessment performed by ILF in 2017 (ILF, 2017d). Such areas are encountered where the surface discharge leaves mountainous areas and enters shallow inclined, flat pediments. These pediments are characterized by the absence of a pronounced river or stream channel and the occurrence of numerous shallow stream channels (ILF, 2017a). This means that some areas of Balochistan, including some proposed AGI locations, are also prone to sheet or flash floods. The main reason for this is the sparse or missing vegetation cover, which causes most of the precipitation to runoff the surface.

According to the World Resources Institute and Global Flood Analyzer (a web-based interactive platform that measures river flood impacts by urban damage, affected global domestic products [GDP], and affected population), for a 100-year return period flood event, Pakistan can expect annual urban damage of USD 66.9 million with annual avoided urban damage of USD 714.4 million, assuming a 100-year country- wide flood protection system is in place. Similarly, annual expected affected GDP and population affected are USD 508.7 million and 209,900 people, respectively.

Satellite images can provide flood outlines of historical events. Based on UNOSAT Flood Assessment, a flood extent was reproduced and analyzed by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Both modelled and historical flood outlines show the flood risk in Punjab Province, especially on major crossings on Indus, Chenab and Sutlej Rivers.

Calculations of peak flows for return periods up to 100 years and average monthly flows for chosen crossings are presented in the ILF Hydrological Report of 2017 (ILF, 2017e).

The pipeline will cross about 580 streams in Balochistan, ranging from very small drains to large rivers. No maintained flow record for these streams is available with any provincial department of Balochistan. However, peak flow calculations at the pipeline crossing of 20 major streams were performed by ILF, considering catchment parameters, rainfall frequency analysis from climatological stations closest to the

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considered catchment, intense-duration-frequency curves generated using the 24- hour rainfall data for the same station, and finally flood computed using a dedicated rainfall-runoff model. Return period of 24-hour rainfall for 100 years were selected to calculate peak discharge at 100-year return period for single basin catchments. The peak discharge calculated for the 20 major streams in Balochistan at 100-year return period varies between 6.1 to 2,245.5 cubic meters per second (m3/s), depending on the catchment.

In Punjab, the discharge data of canals and river flow data at barrages are measured and maintained by the Punjab Irrigation Department. Discharge data of the Indus River at Dadu Moro Gauging Station were collected from the Surface Water Hydrology, Water and Power Development Authority. The discharge data available from a total of five gauging stations in Punjab were reviewed for the flow transformation and estimation of flow at the planned river crossings. The gauging stations and flows exactly at river crossing were not available. Thus, gauging stations available near pipeline crossings were considered. The data types are daily, monthly, annual and maximum discharges.

The pipeline in Punjab will cross several canals, in particular:

· Dera Ghazi Khan Canal, mean monthly flow computed as 120.1 m3/s; · Muzaffargarh Canal, mean monthly flow computed as 101.1 m3/s; · RTP Canal, mean monthly flow computed as 0.5 m3/s; · SMB Link Canal, mean monthly flow computed as 186.6 m3/s; · 100 Wali Canal, mean monthly flow computed as 96.2 m3/s; · Fordwah Canal originated from Suleimanki Barrage on Sutlej River, mean monthly flow computed as 36.3 m3/s; and · Eastern Sadiqia Canal originated from Suleimanki Barrage on Sutlej River, mean monthly flow computed as 120.5 m3/s.

The pipeline will cross the Indus River downstream of the Taunsa Barrage Gauging Station and upstream of the Dadu-Moro Gauging Station. The mean monthly flow at Taunsa Barrage is computed as 2,609.8 m3/s. The mean monthly flow at Dadu-Moro is computed as 1,687.0 m3/s. For the flood study of the Indus River, flood frequency analysis was carried out for Taunsa Barrage and Dadu-Moro flood data. At Taunsa Barrage, the highest and lowest flood years on record were 2010 and 2004, with instantaneous maximum discharge of 27,180 m3/s and 5,163 m3/s, respectively. The mean instantaneous maximum discharge observed at Taunsa Barrage is 12,805 m3/s with a standard deviation of 4,009 m3/s. At Dadu-Moro, the highest and lowest flood years on record were 2010 and 2004, with instantaneous maximum discharge of 27,833 m3/s and 2,036 m3/s, respectively. The mean instantaneous maximum discharge observed at Dadu-Moro is 10,041 m3/s with a standard deviation of 6,992 m3/s.

The pipeline will cross the Chenab River downstream of the confluence of Ravi River with Chenab River, while Trimmu Barrage and Sidhnai Barrage exist upstream of the

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confluence on the Ravi River. The mean monthly flow at Sidhnai Barrage is computed as 120.5 m3/s, while at the Trimmu Gauging Station is computed as 561.5 m3/s. At Trimmu Barrage, the highest and lowest flood years on record were 1928 and 2004, with instantaneous maximum discharge of 26,727.2 m3/s and 1,210.5 m3/s, respectively. The mean instantaneous maximum discharge observed at Trimmu Barrage is 8,624.2 m3/s with a standard deviation of 5,691.2 m3/s. At Sidhnai Barrage, the highest and lowest flood years on record were 1988 and 2009, with instantaneous maximum discharge of 7,221 m3/s and 240 m3/s, respectively. The mean instantaneous maximum discharge observed at Sidhnai Barrage is 1,729 m3/s with a standard deviation of 1,438.8 m3/s.

The pipeline will cross the Sutlej River downstream of Suleimanki Barrage. The mean monthly flow at the Suleimanki Barrage Gauging Station is computed as 108.1 m3/s. The highest and lowest flood years on record were 1955 and 2002, with instantaneous maximum discharge of 16,875 m3/s and 42.6 m3/s, respectively. The mean instantaneous maximum discharge observed at Suleimanki Barrage is 4,121.9 m3/s with a standard deviation of 3,127.5 m3/s.

The calculated flood magnitude of the 100-year return period event is reported to be in Punjab for the main river crossings, as follows:

· 14,651 m3/s – Calculated flood magnitude for Suleimanki Bridge, upstream of the Sutlej River crossing; · 22,132 m3/s – Calculated flood magnitude for Taunsa Barrage, upstream of Indus River crossing; · 32,958 m3/s – Calculated flood magnitude for Dadu-Moro, downstream of Indus River crossing; · 7,186 m3/s – Calculated flood magnitude for Sidhnai Bridge, upstream of Chenab River crossing; and · 28,339 m3/s – Calculated flood magnitude for Trimmu Bridge, upstream of Chenab River crossing.

6.4.11 Conclusion

6.4.11.1 Soil and Sub-Surface Geology

The PAI runs through the Balochistan Plateau in the west of Pakistan, before descending through the east of the Balochistan Region and the agricultural lowlands in the Punjab Region. The Punjab part of the TAPI pipeline corridor is extensively covered by agricultural lands, trees, tree crops, and shrublands. This section of the proposed pipeline route is the most intensively used by the local population, where soil is considered to have high agricultural and economical values. The PAI is also highly vulnerable to floods.

Most of Balochistan is dry, barren, and sparsely vegetated, with some spots of natural vegetation, limited lands used for agriculture, and scattered settlements. The PAI will

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intersect mostly barren land (subject to localized erosion phenomena) and shrublands, where soil is considered to have low agricultural and economical values. However, it is a moderately dissected terrain vulnerable to erosion and subject to seismic events due to the presence of major faults. In particular, the Chaman Fault System is encountered near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, suggesting a high vulnerability to geohazards.

Overall, the sensitivity of soil and sub-surface geology receptors is considered to be high.

6.4.11.2 Groundwater

Drinking water in Pakistan comes from surface water and groundwater aquifers near rivers or canals. About 70% of water for drinking purposes comes from aquifers. In large areas that will be crossed by the TAPI pipeline, there is a significant shortage of drinking water. The areas of Pishin and Quetta in Balochistan are facing severe water shortages due to extensive cultivation of fruit. Moreover, there is a high dependence of the local population on groundwater for drinking water supplies and the Project plans to make use of several existing wells to source drinking water for construction camps and permanent facilities.

Groundwater in Pakistan has traditionally been developed and utilized for irrigation purposes through the use of karezes, springs, and shallow hand-dug open wells. The PAI will likely intersect traditional karezes and shallow wells.

In addition, there is a high risk that shallow, phreatic aquifers may be encountered at locations where the pipeline route crosses river valleys and alluvial fans or pediments, where groundwater level may be very close to the ground level. Risks of waterlogging have been identified, in particular, throughout the entire pipeline section in the Indus Plain.

Uncontrolled discharge of industrial effluent has affected surface and groundwater, identifying the presence of lead, chromium, and cyanide in groundwater samples from industrial areas. Bacterial, arsenic, nitrate, and fluoride contamination are common in the water supply of all major urban areas in Pakistan. Much of the Indus Plain is likely to have elevated arsenic concentrations. High salinity is resulted from waterlogging of salinized soils due to irrigation. As such, access to safe water is reported to be a problem in the country.

The overall sensitivity of groundwater resources is considered to be conservatively high. Local drinking water resources sampled and analyzed during the physical environment survey in May 2018 were predominantly from groundwater sources, many of which are reportedly contaminated with fecal coliforms and high turbidity.

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6.4.11.3 Surface Water

The Indus River Basin covers 65% of Pakistan’s territory and the Indus River, together with its tributaries, is an important water source for the irrigation and agricultural industry.

Pakistan possesses the world’s largest contiguous water basin that encompasses the Indus River and its tributaries, including three large reservoirs (Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma). Within the Indus River Basin, river water is diverted by barrages and weirs into main canals and subsequently branch canals, distributaries, and minors. Recession agriculture (that is, growing crops after receding of floodwater) is also practiced around the rivers and streams during floods.

Flooding is widespread and frequent, and causes loss, hardship, and fatalities.

Indiscriminate and unplanned disposal of effluents (including agricultural drainage water and municipal and industrial wastewater) into rivers, canals, and drains is causing deterioration of surface water quality downstream. The polluted surface water is also being used for drinking in downstream areas, causing numerous water-borne diseases.

Considering all the factors mentioned above, the sensitivity of surface water resources is estimated to be high.

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REFERENCES

Ali, A., 2013. Indus Basin Floods. Asian Development Bank.

Barnhart, W.D., 2016. Fault Creep Rates of the Chaman Fault (Afghanistan and Pakistan) inferred from InSAR. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.

Farah, A., R. Lawrence and K. DeJong, 1984. An Overview of the Tectonics of Pakistan. In, B.U. Haq and J.D. Williams (Eds.), Marine Geology and Oceanography of Arabian Sea and Coastal Pakistan. Van Nostrand Reinhold, Sci. and Ac. Ed., p. 161-176.

Geological Survey of Pakistan, 1964. Geological Map of Pakistan. Direction of N.M. Khan. Director General.

GinkgoMaps, 2017. http://www.ginkgomaps.com. Accessed June 15th.

Government of the Punjab, Law and Parliamentary Affairs Department. 2016. Punjab Environmental Quality Standards for Drinking Water.

Huang, J., and Khan, A.S., 2016. Slip Rates of Chaman Fault System, Pakistan. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309341196_SLIP_RATES_OF_CHAMAN_FAULT_ SYSTEM_PAKISTAN. Accessed June 19th, 2018.

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ILF Consulting Engineers, 2017b. Geohazard Maps – Pakistan.

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ILF Consulting Engineers, 2017d. Route Selection Report – Pakistan.

ILF Consulting Engineers, 2017e. Hydrological Report Pakistan.

ILF Consulting Engineers, 2017f. River Crossing Design Philosophy.

Khan, J. A., 2012. Soil Survey in Pakistan, History, Achievement and Impact on Agriculture.

NAFTEC/MAB’s subcontractor, 2018. Physical Survey along TAPI Pipeline Route through Pakistan and Water Sample Results, including: Analysis Report 143 (1-79) Balochistan Province, Summary of Sampling Activity at Province Balochistan, Analysis Report 143 (1-69) Punjab Province, and Summary of Sampling Activity at Province Punjab.

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Podgorski, J. E., Eqani, S. A. M. A. S., Khanam, T., Ullah, R., Shen, H, and Berg, M, 2017. Extensive Arsenic Contamination in High-pH Unconfined Aquifers in the Indus Valley, Science Advances, 23rd August.

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