Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK) up MP OP a Gas Utilities Laggard to Unleash M&A-Driven Growth Potential
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
15 December 2017 Last Closing: HK$ 5.63 Upside: +42% Target Price: HK$ 8.00 Gas Utilities Sector Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK) UP MP OP A gas utilities laggard to unleash M&A-driven growth potential Initiation of coverage Financial Highlights Y/E 31 Dec 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue (RMB m) 2,252 2,693 3,178 3,714 4,335 NEUTRAL YoY growth (%) 67.6 19.6 18.0 16.8 16.7 Net profit (RMB m) 284 313 390 477 569 EPS (RMB) 0.282 0.317 0.394 0.482 0.575 SELL EPS growth (%) 5.9 12.5 24.4 22.4 19.2 P/E (x) 16.9 15.1 12.1 9.9 8.3 BVPS (RMB) 2.326 2.457 2.760 3.131 3.573 P/B (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 We initiate coverage on Tian Lun Source: Company data, BOCOM Int’l estimates Gas (TLG) with a Buy rating and More than tenfold increases in revenue and retail gas sales in 2010-16. Since its DCF-based TP of HK$8.00. founding in 2002, Tian Lun Gas (TLG) has been growing fast in terms of revenue and gas TLG’s management emphasized acquisition-driven growth ahead sales volume. From 2002 to 2007, TLG laid the foundation for future growth by gaining with prudent project selection. three projects in key cities in Henan Province. After its listing in 2010, TLG started to We forecast TLG’s 3-year earnings expand quickly through a series of acquisitions. Since 2011, TLG has acquired 24 targets CAGR at 22.0%, with free cash flow with capex of ~RMB3.8bn. From 2010 to 2016, revenue, net profit and retail gas sales turning positive in 2019E. volume surged 14x, 6x and 20x, respectively, translating into 48%, 27% and 43% CAGRs YTD share performance of TLG has in the period. By 1H17, TLG had expanded its footprint into 13 provinces with a total of significantly underperformed peers’. We see re-rating potential 54 gas projects, 59 gas refilling stations, two LNG processing plants, and three operating for TLG once the company speeds long-haul pipelines. up acquisitions. Steadfast on M&A strategy with highly-selective approach. TLG’s management has Stock data reaffirmed M&A will not slow and remains the key strategy to drive expansion. Among 52w high (HK$) 7.6 the small- to mid-sized privately-owned gas distribution companies, TLG targets to 52w low (HK$) 3.75 acquire those with limited financial resources for expansion or with earnings levels Market cap (HK$ m) 5,572 insufficient for a listing. We reckon TLG prefers mature projects with good operational Issued shares (m) 990 efficiency and will keep the historical P/E of potential deals lower than its own to Avg daily vol (m) 1.42 1-mth change (%) -1.1 ensure value-accretive acquisitions. TLG is now looking for M&A opportunities in SW YTD change (%) -21.3 and NW regions as projects there are expected to enjoy better gas supply. 50d MA (HK$) 5.69 200d MA (HK$) 5.28 Expect strong earnings CAGR of 22.0% in 2016-19; free cash flow to improve 14d RSI 48.01 continuously. We forecast TLG’s net profit to register a 22.0% CAGR during 2016-19 on Source: Bloomberg the back of a 26% CAGR in retail gas sales volume and slight improvement in dollar 1-year performance chart margin. We have factored in RMB500m capex per year for M&A in 2017-19E. With HSI 1600.HK persistent improvement in operational cash flow, we estimate TLG’s free cash flow to 40% 30% turn positive in 2019E. Net gearing, on the other hand, is estimated to come down from 20% 105% to 90% from 2017 to 2019. 10% 0% -10% Undemanding valuation; initiate coverage with Buy and TP of HK$8.00: We derive our -20% -30% TP of HK$8.00 from our DCF model, based on 8.6% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth. -40% Our TP translates into 14.0x 2018E P/E. TLG has been a laggard amid a strong year for Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 the gas utilities sector. We believe investors have been impatient with TLG’s somewhat Source: Bloomberg slower M&A progress after the Jintang acquisition in 2Q17. Current valuation at 10x Wallace Cheng 2018E P/E is at least ~30% discounted to those of major gas utilities names (ENN, CGH [email protected] and CRG). We expect such a discount to narrow when TLG further expedites its Tel: (852) 3766 1810 acquisitions. We initiate coverage on TLG with a Buy rating. Spencer Luo [email protected] Risk factors: (1) M&A progress may be slower than expected; (2) dollar margin and new Tel: (852) 3766 1853 connections may be lower than expected; and (3) relatively low liquidity of the stock. Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉 Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉 Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK) Gas Utilities Sector 15 December 2017 TABLE OF CONTENT Company Overview – Strong Growth Track since 2002 ............................................................................ 3 Steadfast on Highly-selective Acquisitions .............................................................................................. 5 Operation to Stay on Track during 2017-19E ........................................................................................... 7 Expect 22.0% Earnings CAGR in 2016-19E; Free Cash Flow to Improve Continuously .............................. 10 Risk Factors .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Undemanding Valuation; Initiate Coverage with Buy Rating and TP of HK$8.00 ..................................... 13 TABLE OF CHARTS Figure 1: Summary of TLG’s major acquisitions after listing ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: Revenue and net profit of TLG (2007-16) ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3: Retail gas sales volume of TLG (2007-16) ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 4: Locations of TLG’s 3 projects before listing in 2010 ................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 5: Summary of TLG’s project in 1H17 ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 6: Natural gas consumption volume and growth rate (2007-16) ................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 7: 1H17 operational data highlights ............................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 8: Comparison of retail gas sales breakdown in 2017E .................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 9: Comparison of gas sales volume growth from gas stations (2017-19E) ..................................................................................................... 7 Figure 10: Key assumptions on gas sales volume...................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 11: New connections per year and cumulative connections ......................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 12: Key assumptions on dollar margin of retail gas sales ............................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 13: Revenue, gross profit and GPM forecasts .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 14: Revenue and gross profit forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 15: Weighting of each segment in gross profit ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 16: Net profit and EPS growth forecasts ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 17: Free cash flow and net gearing forecasts ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 18: WACC assumptions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 19: DCF Model .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 20: DCF valuation sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 21: 5- year P/E band of TLG (x) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 22: 5-year P/B band of TLG (x) ....................................................................................................................................................................