LIBERALISATION of the ESTONIAN GAS MARKET a Report to Elering AS

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LIBERALISATION of the ESTONIAN GAS MARKET a Report to Elering AS LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET A report to Elering AS October 2011 T E ESTONIAN GAS MARKE LIBERALISATION OF TH LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET Contact details Name Email Telephone Richard Sarsfield-Hall [email protected] +44 1865 812266 Annette Berkhahn [email protected] +46 8 5280 1215 John Williams [email protected] +44 1865 812262 Pöyry is a global consulting and engineering firm. Our in-depth expertise extends across the fields of energy, industry, urban & mobility and water & environment. Pöyry plc has 7000 experts operating in 50 countries and net sales of EUR 682 million (2010). The company’s shares are quoted on NASDAQ OMX Helsinki (Pöyry PLC: POY1V). Pöyry Management Consulting provides leading-edge consulting and advisory services covering the whole value chain in energy, forest and other process industries. Our energy practice is the leading provider of strategic, commercial, regulatory and policy advice to Europe's energy markets. Our energy team of 200 specialists, located across 14 European offices in 12 countries, offers unparalleled expertise in the rapidly changing energy sector. Copyright © 2011 Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd (“Pöyry”). Important This document contains confidential and commercially sensitive information. Should any requests for disclosure of information contained in this document be received (whether pursuant to; the Freedom of Information Act 2000, the Freedom of Information Act 2003 (Ireland), the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (Northern Ireland), or otherwise), we request that we be notified in writing of the details of such request and that we be consulted and our comments taken into account before any action is taken. Disclaimer While Pöyry considers that the information and opinions given in this work are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. Pöyry does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Pöyry will not assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this report. The report contains projections that are based on assumptions that are subject to uncertainties and contingencies. Because of the subjective judgements and inherent uncertainties of projections, and because events frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no assurance that the projections contained herein will be realised and actual results may be different from projected results. Hence the projections supplied are not to be regarded as firm predictions of the future, but rather as illustrations of what might happen. Parties are advised to base their actions on an awareness of the range of such projections, and to note that the range necessarily broadens in the latter years of the projections. PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING October 2011 573_Estonian_Liberalisation_v1_0.docx LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 13 1.1 The gas market chain 13 1.2 Structure of this report 14 1.3 Conventions 15 2. THE ESTONIAN ENERGY MARKET 17 2.1 Overview of Estonia 17 2.2 Overview of the East Baltic energy markets 17 2.3 Estonian energy markets 21 2.4 Estonian gas market 22 2.5 Gas security of supply 25 2.6 Estonian electricity market 30 2.7 Summary 33 3. GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS 35 3.1 Overview 35 3.2 Liquefied natural gas 36 3.3 Unconventional gas 39 3.4 EU conventional gas production 40 3.5 Gas imports to EU 41 3.6 Interconnection within Europe 44 3.7 Gas trading in the EU 45 3.8 The potential of gas in a low-carbon Europe 49 3.9 Summary 52 4. ESTONIAN LIBERALISATION OPTIONS 53 4.1 Liberalisation analysis 53 4.2 Estonian model for gas transmission unbundling 54 4.3 Potential of small scale LNG 57 4.4 Replacement of oil shale generation capacity 60 4.5 Summary 61 5. REGIONAL APPROACH 63 5.1 Baltic energy markets interconnection plan 63 5.2 Interconnectors 64 5.3 Baltic LNG terminal 69 5.4 Entry–Exit regulation 72 5.5 Financing/ownership model 72 5.6 Economic analysis of Baltic infrastructure projects 73 PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING October 2011 573_Estonian_Liberalisation_v1_0.docx LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET 5.7 Advantages of regional approach 75 5.8 Barriers to regional approach 76 5.9 Summary 78 6. IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS 79 6.1 Pipeline and LNG price projections 79 6.2 Key issues and stakeholders’ views 80 6.3 Implementation scenarios 83 6.4 Implementation recommendations 87 6.5 Next Steps 87 6.6 Key dates 88 ANNEX A – THE LIBERALISATION PROCESS 89 A.1 Market conditions 89 A.2 Benefits of liberalisation 93 A.3 Costs of liberalisation 95 A.4 Liberalisation in EU gas markets 96 ANNEX B – MARKET DESIGN 107 B.1 Market roles and stakeholders 107 B.2 Network access, capacity allocation and pricing 108 B.3 Transmission balancing 114 B.4 Consumption estimation, metering rules 117 B.5 Wholesale and retail gas markets 118 B.6 Customer switching process 121 B.7 Consumer price differentiation 123 ANNEX C – REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS 127 C.1 The role of a regulator 127 C.2 Tariff setting 129 C.3 Principles for valuing transmission assets 130 C.4 Best practice for consulting with stakeholders 132 C.5 Liberalisation checklist 133 ANNEX D – GLOSSARY 135 D.1 Conversion units 135 D.2 Names, definitions and acronyms 135 D.3 Exchange rates 139 ANNEX E – ABOUT PÖYRY 141 E.1 Corporate Structure, history and services 141 E.2 ILEX energy reports 142 E.3 Pöyry’s modelling capability 143 PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING October 2011 573_Estonian_Liberalisation_v1_0.docx LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Estonian gas market Pöyry has been commissioned by Elering to assess the potential for gas market liberalisation in Estonia. This report presents the work that Pöyry has undertaken over a number of months since May 2011. In the course of this work we have interviewed a large number of industry stakeholders in order that we are able to understand the views of market participants and to develop a practical approach to liberalisation in Estonia. The Estonian gas market is, by international standards, small in terms of its annual consumption and peak day gas requirements. There is currently very little gas used in power generation in Estonia, although gas does have a reasonable share in CHP and district heating schemes. The Estonian gas transmission network is connected to Russia at Narva and Värska and to Latvia at Karksi. Even though connection at Narva has had periods out of operation due to its poor condition, and currently has limited availability, there is currently sufficient capacity in the transmission network to meet all annual and peak gas demands. The major player in the Estonian gas market is Eesti Gaas, which owns the transmission system assets, the majority of the distribution assets and is currently the sole wholesaler of gas. It is owned by Gazprom (37%), E.On (33.66%), Fortum (17.7%), Itera (9.9%) and various smaller shareholders. Eesti Gaas supplies gas to over 90% of the retail market. The sole importer of gas into Estonia is Gazprom. Flexibility is also provided to the Estonian gas market via the Incukalns underground storage facility in Latvia, which is currently contracted solely to Gazprom. In order to progress towards a liberalised market, Estonian legislation has led to the establishment of a separate system operator, EG Võrguteenus, in January 2006, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eesti Gaas. Since July 2007, the Estonian gas market has been open to competition, with all end users, in theory, being able to choose their gas supplier. Despite these efforts, however, little or no competition has developed in the gas market. We consider that this has been due to a number of reasons: The overall size of the gas market is small and therefore not attractive to new entrants that would incur high start-up costs in relation to any possible benefits. There is no alternative to Russian gas supplies and therefore no gas-on-gas competition at the wholesale level. There is no surplus of gas available to the wholesale market to provide new entrants with competitive prices. End user prices have been relatively low, in comparison to other EU countries, and therefore there has been little incentive for end users to question the status quo. Competition in the electricity sector is not yet established at the retail level and this has meant that it is not possible for either the gas or electricity incumbents to offer dual fuel offers. In other markets this has led to at least the gas and electricity incumbents competing with each other. Retail customers have little choice of their gas supplier if they are tied into district heating schemes. Furthermore, the limits that are imposed on the use of a single fuel source in district heating schemes may incentivise a move away from gas and into biomass. PÖYRY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING October 2011 573_Estonian_Liberalisation_v1_0.docx 1 LIBERALISATION OF THE ESTONIAN GAS MARKET Currently, there is little gas fired power generation in Estonia, and a vibrant gas fired power sector is normally key to attracting new market entrants. This report addresses the issues detailed above and presents a number of conclusions and recommendations on the future development of the Estonian gas market.
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