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The Eastern Baltic LNG Terminal As a Prospect to Improve Security of Regional Gas Supply

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The Eastern Baltic LNG Terminal As a Prospect to Improve Security of Regional Gas Supply INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS, ENGINEERING & DEVELOPMENT DOI: 10.46300/91015.2021.15.6 Volume 15, 2021 The Eastern Baltic LNG terminal as a prospect to improve security of regional gas supply Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel, Ando Leppiman Department of Logistics and Transport Tallinn University of Technology 19086 Tallinn, Estonia E-mail: {kati.korbe, ott.koppel, ando.leppiman}@ttu.ee Received: March 4, 2021. Revised: March 22, 2021. Accepted: March 26, 2021. Published: March 29, 2021. Abstract—One of the crucial issues in Europe at the moment the ultimate goal of the third energy package of EU, to promote is securing reliable gas supply. Achieving security of gas supply competition and create single European energy market. In implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, parallel with infrastructure planning Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and and Finland are evolving market liberalization with intention to supply interruptions. In 2013, the Baltic States still remain introduce market-based trading systems. disintegrated from the rest of Europe in one crucial way: their natural gas infrastructure isolates them into “energy islands”. EU energy policy now aims to couple Baltic natural gas The Eastern Baltic Sea European Union (EU) member states of networks with those of their EU allies in pursuit of two key Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the only ones which strategic goals: creation of a single unified energy market in remain isolated from the present integrated EU natural gas Europe; and completion of a post-Cold War Europe that is transmission system. The gas demand in these isolated member whole and free [1]. Cooperation in the framework of Baltic 3 states is approximately ten billion cubic meters (bm ) of natural Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) between eight gas per year. The third energy package of EU proposes a new Baltic Sea EU Member States is being carried out and a series of measures to promote competition and create a single Memorandum of Understanding with an Action Plan was European energy market. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland signed on 17 June 2009 and is going to be fulfilled. now for the first time have a chance to secure their energy independence by connecting their natural gas systems with those In order to link the isolated East-Baltic region to the of their European allies and evolving them into market-based European natural gas market, thus enhancing security of trading systems. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is an important supply, ending single supplier dependency and increasing energy source that contributes to energy security and diversity, diversification, BEMIP identified key gas infrastructure therefore a concept of a regional LNG terminal has been investments, including a regional LNG terminal for Estonian, proposed. In this paper the authors give an overview of the Latvian, Lithuanian and Finland’s needs [2]. current situation and present possible future scenarios with the development of Eastern Baltic regional LNG terminal. 2013 is a The European Commission (EC) has considered two crucial time as in September the decision will be made regarding options for connecting the Baltic States to the European natural weather the regional LNG terminal will be chosen as a project of gas network either by interconnector and/or by an LNG import common interest in the trans-European energy networks. terminal. Numerous LNG projects have been proposed in recent years for the Eastern Baltic region [2]. In September Keywords—LNG; security of supply; regional terminals 2013 according to the Action Plan concrete measures in infrastructure development are going to be agreed upon and I. INTRODUCTION selection into the list of Projects on Common Interest (PCI) in accordance with Trans-European Energy Networks (TEN-E) More than two decades after the end of the Soviet delegated acts are going to be made. occupation and eight years after the Baltic States joined NATO and the EU, they remain disintegrated from the rest of Europe This paper focuses on comparing of the final three projects in one crucial way: their natural gas infrastructure isolates them proposed to develop the Eastern Baltic regional LNG terminal into “energy islands”. As a Soviet-era legacy, the natural gas and their role in improving the security of gas supply of the networks of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland are supplied mentioned region. only by Gazprom through links to the grids of Belarus, Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast, and mainland Russia. II. BACKGROUND The isolation of those states from the EU’s natural gas European experts have predicted European gas demand to networks is incompatible both with these states’ individual stay largely flat over the next twenty years due to heavy economic needs and with the EU’s collective vision of a emphasis on renewable energy. Europe is expected to become unified European energy market. In 2013 Estonia, Latvia, an increasingly significant importer of gas as at the same time Lithuania and Finland in are closer than ever to make concrete gas production in Europe itself is to fall because depletion of steps securing their energy independence by connecting their the United Kingdom and Dutch reserves. Through rising natural gas systems with those of their European allies. This is imports the gas prices are expected to act same way and E-ISSN: 2074-1308 34 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS, ENGINEERING & DEVELOPMENT DOI: 10.46300/91015.2021.15.6 Volume 15, 2021 according to experts Asian price levels will be reached from With the assumption that each Baltic country would have to 2025 onwards [3]. achieve the same diversification target and equally comply with N-1 rule (see below), the location that minimizes further One of the crucial issues in Europe at the moment is network upgrades and optimizes gas grid flows is Estonia [3]. reliable gas supply. This subject became even more important after gas supply interruptions and limitations took place in Numerous LNG projects have been proposed in recent January of 2009 in some EU countries. At present security of years for the Eastern Baltic region. Different port locations supply is on top of the agenda of the EC [4]. might be eligible for the realization of the LNG terminal ( Muuga, Paldiski and Sillamäe in Estonia, Riga and Ventspils in The Eastern Baltic gas market (Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Latvia, Klaipeda in Lithuania) [3]. Lithuania) currently has an aggregated demand of about 10 bcm3 per year (Table I), which is expected to remain flat Klaipeda LNG terminal is the only project in the early (compound annual growth rate 0.3%) unless major stages of implementation, potentially allowing for a detailed discontinuities will take place. If gas supply diversification was assessment of the project cost. The adopted technical solution enhanced and the required infrastructures were developed for Klaipeda terminal is a Floating Storage Regasification accordingly, market could grow up to 16 bm3, with the Units (FSRU) facility leased for ten years; the lease fee of 43 additional upside of 1.5 bm3 for LNG bunkering [3]. million euros per year covers for rent, financing cost and overheads. The total cash-out over the lease period would be 3 430 million euros. Project promoter Klaipedos Nafta reports TABLE I. NATURAL GAS ANNUAL CONSUMPTION (MILLION M ) [5], [6] the overall investment (discounted lease fees and buy-back Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 option) to be 250 million euros [3]. Estonia 1,003 962 653 701 632 The combined market of Estonia, Latvia and Finland 3 Latvia 1,645 1,665 1,528 1,821 1,604 amounts to approximately 6 bm per year until 2020. The market opening in Estonia combined with the expiry of the Lithuania 3,720 3,245 2,727 3,115 3,398 Gazprom contracts implies an increasing need and opportunity Finland 4,587 4,728 4,446 4,701 4,105 for shippers to diversify their sourcing portfolio. It will further enable easier access to new entrants as new supply options Total 10,955 10,183 9,585 10,338 9,739 become available [2]. Russian imports will, however, still play an important role Currently, as the Great Baltic area relies entirely on Russian in Estonian gas supply and the gas supplies from LNG terminal gas supplies and only Latvia and Finland are compliant with N- will supplement the existing import source [2]. 1 rule, which refers to the security of supply. Several projects have been proposed to end isolation of the Eastern Baltic market, and some of them are included in BEMIP. III. SECURITY OF SUPPLY These projects can be clustered in three groups [3]: The security of energy supply (SOS) is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy [7]. Energy security is defined upgrades of the existing interconnections “Intra-Baltic as the availability of regular supply of energy at an affordable connections”; price there are availability, accessibility, affordability and social acceptability. Energy security comes at a cost and it is new pipeline connections as Balticconnector and Gas not a question of achieving it at any cost [8]. From a European Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL); perspective, energy security is most often discussed in terms of new LNG terminal (six projects proposed in different SOS, in other words with reference to the avoidance of sudden port locations). changes in the physical availability of energy relative to demand [9]. A joint implementation of Intra-Baltic connections, Balticconnector and GIPL would help the area to achieve some The definition has physical, economic, social and degree of supply diversification (about 33% of “diversified” environmental dimensions. A physical disruption can occur gas, mainly in Latvia and Lithuania), but the security of supply when an energy source is exhausted or production is stopped, in Lithuania would only marginally improve [3].
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