October 31, 2018 Volume 14, Number 42 Farm support for Trump remains strong, despite trade headwinds As farmers and ranchers prepare to head to the polls next week, their overall approval of President Donald Trump remains high, but they want the administration to focus more on exports and ending the trade war with China. “Selling more U.S. farm products overseas” and “protecting the country against terrorism” are two of the highest-rated issues. That’s according to a new nationwide Agri-Pulse poll of 600 farmers and ranchers, conducted by Aimpoint Research from Oct. 12-28. Respondents were representative of commercial farmers with gross farm incomes of at least $50,000. Farm size was evenly distributed; About 28 percent farm 500 acres or less, 23 percent till between 500 and 1,000 acres, 20 percent have 1,000 to 2,000 acres, and 28 percent farm more than 2,000 acres. About 79 percent of the farmers polled either approve or strongly approve of President Trump, compared to 19 percent who disapprove. Broken down by party, 92 percent of the GOP farmers approved of the way Trump is handling the nation’s top job, compared to 33 percent of the Democrats and 65 percent of the independents. Some 67 percent of the Democratic farmers polled – who represented about 12 percent of the total respondents – disapprove of Trump’s performance. Whether or not the president can transfer his high approval rating on the farm to congressional candidates during next week’s midterm elections remains to be seen. Farm country has voted overwhelmingly for Republican presidential candidates in recent years. Eighty www.Agri-Pulse.com 1 percent of the farmers in our sample voted for Trump in 2016, versus only 10 percent who voted for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. When it comes to his own re-election prospects, 70 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2020, 19 percent said they would vote against Trump, and 10 percent were undecided. Support for Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue remains strong, too, with 73 percent of the farmers polled approving of how he’s handled his first year. Much of Trump’s strong standing in rural America could hinge on whether more trade deals are completed, tariffs are lifted on agriculture’s biggest trading partners and commodity prices improve. For now, the majority of farmers said financial conditions were at least the same or better than a year ago, with about one-third saying conditions were worse. But 60 percent also have some concerns with their ability to repay operating and ownership loans at year-end. Little wonder then, that there was strong support (77 percent) for the administration’s trade assistance package. The first half included $6.3 billion in assistance to farmers and commodity purchases. Perdue said USDA will release funds in December for the second part of the department’s aid package, but he also reiterated that there won’t be payments in 2019. Farmers watched commodity prices reach historic highs within the last decade and, in many cases spending on new machinery, inputs and cash rent skyrocketed, too (see Farm Doc Daily charts). Now, with tariffs making U.S. commodities more expensive in major world markets, prices have dropped, and many farmers find it difficult to break even. On the campaign trail, President Trump repeatedly says that farm prices were bad for 15 years before he was elected, ignoring USDA NASS data that proves otherwise. But even though conditions on the farm might not be perceived as favorable right now, farmers seem optimistic that things will get better under Trump. The farmers in the survey sample gave fairly high marks to the administration’s efforts to renegotiate and rename the North American Free Trade Agreement, to renegotiate trade terms with China, and to repeal federal regulations on their farms. www.Agri-Pulse.com 2 And when it comes to passing a new farm bill, they see the need to get it done before the end of 2018. On a scale of 0-10, with 10 being extremely important, 79 percent rated the importance of farm bill passage with a 6 or above. In general, it appears that farmers and ranchers are not convinced the Democratic party is on their side when it comes to agricultural issues – even though “making health care more affordable,” a key campaign issue for Democrats, scored well among several topics listed. When asked which political party relates to you and your farming interests, 65 percent said it was the GOP compared to only 9 percent who selected Democrats. But there may be some growing distaste for both parties. About 18 percent said, “none of the above” and another 6 percent endorsed independents. Plenty of farm country races to watch on election night The farm policy landscape could change dramatically a week from now. In next Tuesday’s elections, control of the House and Senate is at stake as well as a variety of state offices that are important to agriculture policy. The battle for control of Congress will go a long way toward determining the success of the Trump administration heading into the 2020 presidential election. The next farm bill also could be affected by the election outcome should negotiators be unable to reach agreement on a bill by the end of the year. Meanwhile, governors and state agriculture commissioners could have an impact on everything from tax policy to state efforts to address water quality and other challenges. Here is a look at the key national and state races: Unseating farm-state Democrats could save GOP hold on Senate As much as Republicans would like to maintain control of the House, holding onto the Senate is even more critical from the standpoint of confirming nominees to the courts and cabinet positions. Heading into the final week of the campaign, Republicans appear to have a realistic shot at even expanding their GOP majority in the Senate by unseating Democratic incumbents in at least three major agricultural states that Trump carried in 2016: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. www.Agri-Pulse.com 3 Republicans currently hold 51 seats. If they can avoid losing GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and flip the three Democratic seats, they could increase their majority to 54-46, providing some breathing room in nomination battles over the next two years. The Republicans also are holding out hopes of unseating Democrats in Montana and Florida. Democrats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota are hoping attacks on Trump’s trade policy will neutralize any damage from their votes against Brett Kavanaugh for a seat on the Supreme Court. But Trump’s trade deal with Mexico and Canada and his plan to allow year-round sale of E15 may soothe Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (left), Joe Donnelly (center), the anxiety that rural voters feel about and Claire McCaskill (right) all face tough reelection bids. the ongoing trade war with China. Trump, who went to Indianapolis for the FFA convention on Saturday, is expected to make two trips to Indiana and another two to Missouri ahead of the election to give a boost to the Republicans challenging Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., and Claire McCaskill, D-Mo. In North Dakota, polls show Sen. Heidi Heitkamp falling well behind GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer in the aftermath of the Kavanaugh battle, but Heitkamp has kept up her nearly singular focus on trade policy. “He is all in on the president, and I’m all in on North Dakota,” Heitkamp said in their last debate. Heitkamp also has criticized Cramer for supporting the House-passed farm bill, citing a provision allowing some farmers to revise their yield data for the Price Loss Coverage program. The provision would primarily benefit growers in southern Plains states. But Trump remains relatively popular in North Dakota compared to many other areas of the country. In September, 52 percent of North Dakota voters approved of Trump, according to a Morning Consult poll. Trump’s approval numbers in Indiana and Missouri were similar in September, which was before the Kavanaugh vote, but Donnelly and McCaskill are running neck and neck with their challengers, Indiana businessman Mike Braun and Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley. In Indiana, Donnelly would probably be in good shape if not for his vote against Kavanaugh, said Don Villwock, a former Indiana Farm Bureau president. During a debate in October, Donnelly defended his support for farmers and said Braun wouldn't stand up to Trump when he was wrong. Braun said Donnelly has been ineffective in Congress because he “never sticks his neck out." In Missouri, McCaskill has been trying to tie her challenger to Trump’s trade war with China and its impact on soybean growers. "These tariffs have killed commodity prices. There's not a bean www.Agri-Pulse.com 4 farmer in Missouri that's going to come out even this year," McCaskill said in a debate earlier this month with Hawley. But Hawley won the support of the Missouri Farm Bureau, in part because of his litigation challenging the Obama-era “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) rule and California’s animal welfare standards. Trump has also gone after Montana Sen. Jon Tester and may make a fourth trip to the state on Saturday on behalf of Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale. Analysts are sharply divided over the race, with the Cook Political Report calling it a “tossup,” but others rating the contest as “lean” to “likely” Democrat. A Gravis Marketing poll conducted last week had Tester up by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. Separate polls done earlier in October by the University of Montana and Montana State University showed Tester comfortably ahead.