The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of December 23 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 Who will be the governor-elect at this time next year? • "Abbott will surely beat media • "I know, I know, but the some one darling, Davis but he will have to else category is the probable winner, move beyond Rick Perry's Fed Up! and should read 'Koch Brothers'" Talking points to govern past one term." • "Is Wendy still running? Other than e mails you really don't see her." • "Don't kid yourselves, Greg Abbott is governor-elect right now." • "Abbott will make liberals wish they had Rick Perry back." • "Texas is still strongly Red and everybody knows that." • "Not even close." • "It is going to be Abbott, but every • "He will have so much money from politico will be evaluating whether or the evil Koch brothers that even Jesus not the DeMostyncrat machine was couldn't beat him, much less a able to move the state closer to Democrat." purple." • "Too much money, too much • "Making predictions in the form of momentum and too many absolutes and not probabilities is the Republicans." surest way to get them wrong. This business of soliciting predictions from • "Abbott will win, but Republicans pundits misinforms the public and will lose rural areas and suburban discourages them from participating ticket-splitters." and thus runs counter to the Texas Tribune's mission. However, there is • "Republicans are going to push no 'This question is antithetical to themselves so far to the right they will democracy' option in your question, scare every normal person away!" so I'll go pout over in the corner now." • "Abbott is respected by most all • "This is a lot closer than most people Texans." think. A slip by Abbott can easily turn it. e.g. lay back and enjoy it, or there • "But it's not a slam dunk." isn't a housewife qualified to be on the PUC, or a john hill over confidence • "Abbott is going to run a bad and entitlement" campaign. His rush to the right is too extreme for suburban moms, who I • "And suddenly it feels a lot like think will play a part in this election. I 1990...everyone remembers the also think you can count on a few Clayton Williams inauguration gaffes from his staff ... a la 'she's too right!!!!!" stupid to be governor' and 'retard barbie' ... I feel that the Abbott • "A guy can hope, can't he??" campaign is not taking her seriously." • "Anyone who seriously thinks Senator Davis can overcome the built- INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 in Republican advantage is either a • "DUH!!!" fool or smoking crack." • "Why not?" • "It will be much closer that past elections, but straight party pulls will • "Wendy can't get above 45 or 46 give Abbott the win." percent and every rational adult in Texas knows it." Who’ll be the lieutenant governor-elect? • "Patterson is the underdog who Leticia's run, notwithstanding the always wins because he's genuine. gender-centric opportunity and good Staples is the 'new' establishment intentions, I think he deserves to be Lt candidate who will take votes from Gov if for no other reason than the Dewhurst of the 'old' establishment. civilized magnanimity he showed his Patrick has yet to mend fences with ostensible rival last time, Hector the TEA Party over Cruz." Uribe. He was an approachable if at times intractable Senator, and as a • "The big I is strong to overcome." lobbyist aggressive while utterly professional, unlike many of his peers. • "It's going to be Patrick, but boy am . If there are enough R primary voters I wishing I am wrong." who can read w/out moving their lips and understand we didn't coexist • "First time there has been a w/dinosaurs, there may be enough to conservative that the Tea party faction recognize his independence and is ok with, and that can appeal to real decency even if they can't sign off on voters who are tired of rhetoric his ideology." politics." • "…Unfortunately. However, his • "Money conquers ALL!!!!" power could be short lived." • "All those women who just can't • "I can't believe the guy who pissed bring themselves to vote for Wendy everybody in the Senate off within Davis will feel redeemed by their vote two minutes of stepping foot in the for Van de Putte. THIS is the race to Chamber is likely to be its next watch." president..." • "Like Beyoncé sez, 'ladies rule the • "Who knows, maybe knowledge of world!'" Civil War history will be the deciding factor in this race." • "More of a wish list choice to go w/Jerry, who as an ex marine jet • "Dan Patrick wins; the Senate strips pilot/former artillery officer has only him of his powers." two speeds, strafe and stand down, which voters will either love or • "In a cakewalk." disregard. Given the futility of INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 • "The lack of outside money makes • "Dan Patrick will emerge from a this a different race from Dewhurst v. primary against Dewhurst and the Cruz. Dewhurst is running his second business community will revolt. LVP incompetent campaign in a row so he has a lot of allies...” may get forced into a runoff, but his money advantage will ultimately win • "If Dan Patrick wins the R the day." nomination, van de Putte has a chance" • "Ticket-splitter populists turned off by the Republican nominee will vote • "Too early to call the Republican for divided government and buy a Primary election." Van de Putte insurance policy." • "Double Duh!!!" • "Van De Putte has a better chance than Davis of winning statewide -- not • "I know only one thing about this because she is a Latina, but because race. At this time David Dewhurst the boys running for Lite Gov have will still be the Lt. Gov." behaved like such dolts and even conservative Texans can only take so • "He's taller" much hooey. Still Van De Putte and none of the guys on the GOP ticket are • "The Republican nominee. As of Ted Cruz -- ultimately Dewhurst will now, I'd say that person will be: 35% return." David Dewhurst... 35% Dan Patrick... 20% Todd Staples... 10% Jerry • "LVP will upset DP." Patterson" • "If it isn't broken, don't fix it." Who’ll be the attorney general-elect? • "Does Branch's Dallas money and • "Even the media is catching on to network of state legislators win the Branch's phony conservative act. day, or does the Austin crowd get When the Houston Chronicle mocks Smitherman across the finish line? your campaign on their editorial Stay tuned..." pages, you know people aren’t buying what you're selling" • "Houston will carry Barry over the top." • "Branch wins!!!!! The 'establishment' reassertion itself again!!!" • "Dan Branch will have the money to compete state wide and he has been • "I'm hoping for a really good write- doing all the right things. His machine in candidate to cast a ballot." - and hair - is well-oiled." • "No idea but a lot of the • "Barry Smitherman is an conventional wisdom crowd is betting entertaining, unkempt version of Greg the farm that the lunatic fringe won't Abbott. Gimme." dominate the primaries. Jump ball, INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 that. Branch will likely have the most • "Branch, if he doesn't talk himself professionally run operation." out of it." • "Every conservative group in Texas • "Texans want a proven conservative has endorsed him. He has surprised and Paxton's perfect conservative everyone." voting record in the House and Senate is most convincing." • "I'm hoping..." • "We can hope the other two don't • "Anyone’s guess." get elected" • "Thankfully, the State of Texas is not • "Barry beats Dan in runoff." Collin County writ large. Ken Paxton is about to learn that lesson." Who’ll be the comptroller-elect? • "Hegar is the most organized, most • "He's the serious grown-up in the polished, and most visible candidate." race." • "In a very close race." • "I didn't realize anyone but Hegar is running!" • "I am just saying Glenn because all the insiders are telling me his going to • "Hegar wins this but probably in a win. But, really, no one knows on this runoff. Why did Harvey build up a one." $1M+ war chest to blow it on this race, again?" • "This is going to be one interesting primary. Tea Party versus anti- • "Medina puts Hilderbran and Hegar abortion jihadists versus Brint Ryan's in a run-off, but she doesn't win it, or guy versus a Hispanic." make the run-off herself. Hilderbran and Hegar are the only folks who • "Whoever isn't on the establishment have the money to win it. It's a toss-up party ticket." between them." • "Ugh" • "The one with the whole brain...." • "Can any of these candidates do • "Glenn Hegar has lots and lots of advanced accounting without a problems and Harvey will have the calculator or using their fingers and money to expose them." toes?" Who’ll be the land commissioner-elect? INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 23 December 2013 • "Didn't we already have this • "John who??" election?" • "Wow this is tough to call.