2019 Elections: Again for the Last Time... NEWSLETTER

Foreign Policy Association together with Friedrich- Ebert-Stiftung offer you a newsletter on foreign policy and European integration issues of the Republic of Moldova. The newsletter is part of the “Foreign Policy Dialogue” joint Project. NEWSLETTER MONTHLY BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2019 NR.2 (156) Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates The newsletter is developed by Sorina Ştefârţă, editor-coordinator TOPICS OF THE EDITION: 1. Igor Boțan, political analyst, director of ADEPT:”An impoverished society from which the quality people run away cannot give optimistic results in the elections” 2. Editorial by Viorica Zaharia, chair of the Press Council, editor-in-chief of the Moldovacurata.md portal: ”Integrity as an empty electoral promise” 3. Pavel Postică, programme director at Promo-Lex Moldova:“We can talk about an honest campaign when the conditions are equal for everyone” 4. Expert opinion- Nicu Popescu: “These elections are the most unpredictable of all that the Republic of Moldova has ever had”

News in Brief Once again US officials have univocally declared their support for the independence and territorial integrity of the Republic of 2019 Elections: Moldova. It happened in Washington on the occasion of the recent visit to the USA of the Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Tudor Ulianovschi. During his meetings with senior officials from the National Security Council, the State Department and the US Congress, emphasis was placed on the again for the last time... perspectives of the Moldovan-American collaboration, the consolidation of the Strategic Dialogue and the development of cooperation in the field of the information space protection. The meeting also examined the dynamics of regional and global developments in the context of the efforts directed at consolidating the democracy and economic development. Also, the head of the Moldovan diplomacy participated as main guest in a discussion organized by the Atlantic Council. Representatives of the US Administration and opinion-makers from Washington D.C. have reconfirmed the importance of maintaining our country on the US foreign policy priorities agenda. With reference to the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, the US dignitaries have encouraged organization of free and fair elections according to the OSCE standards.

“Moldovan-Serbian relations are excellent, but the level of economic cooperation does not correspond to the possibilities,” said Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Iurie Leanca, after the recent work visit to Belgrade. During the meetings of the Moldovan official with the Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic, Prime Minister Ana Brnabic and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, the parties agreed that today there is a need to strengthen trade and investment, but also to encourage businessmen to establish new ways of cooperation within the Free Trade Area with the EU that the Republic of Moldova is benefitting of. The officials agreed that the two states will continue to support each other within the international organizations in finding lasting solutions to the Transnistrian and Kosovo-Metohia conflicts. The Moldovan deputy prime minister expressed the interest of Chisinau, whose foreign policy priority is to join the EU, in the Serbian experience in the Euro-integration process. Similarly, Iurie Leanca stressed the importance of regional cooperation and the country’s interest in being part of the cooperation mechanisms in the Western Balkans.

The Swiss Government will provide approximately six million euros to our country for the implementation of the second phase Sorina Ștefârță complex democratic saints that she will never of the Programme “Capitalising on the Potential of Migration in the Republic of Moldova” within process - seem to be venture again into this a Memorandum of Understanding between the State Chancellery and the Swiss Agency for Development and The electoral campaigns more and more like painful experience, I Cooperation. Thus, the Diaspora Bureau will implement - as long as they have bringing a child into the don’t think we can find two projects that will help to improve the institutional framework, fight against poverty and strengthen the existed and as much world. For, like probably a party or a politician diaspora’s capacity to actively engage in the country’s social and economic development. The National as the post-totalitarian there is no woman who, who haven’t sworn on Employment Agency will receive support to improve the reintegration through employment services by recruiting societies like we are after giving birth, has Saturday before the migrants returning home and to provide people with more have learned about this not sworn by all the ballot that it’s for “the chances for legal and temporary migration for work. At the same time, innovation and training projects will be carried Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 2 (156), february 2019 out, as well as projects disseminating the best practices at 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 the national and district level. Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] FEBRUARY 2019 2 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates

last time” that they used unorthodox methods in order to occupy the An impoverished society from which much-coveted armchair of mayor, local councillor, deputy, or country president... the quality people run away cannot

In both cases forgetting is taking its give optimistic results in the elections toll as it “is written in the human laws” as the poet used to say. Forgetting is Igor Boțan, political analyst, director of ADEPT especially part of the ‘political laws’, we would add, giving as an example the last parliamentary election campaign There are many signs that the in Moldova. It’s another campaign citizens are frightened out of which, irrespectively of the vote expressed on Sunday, February Mr. Boţan, there haven’t been 24th, the Republic of Moldova is days, but counted hours left until the coming out tired, harassed, divided parliamentary election campaign is and disappointed by the multitude over. What is your forecast for Sunday, th of politicians and their promises for February 24 ? And to what extent does something “better” they have had in it coincide with the results of the latest recent months: from asphalted roads opinion polls? to doubled salaries; from doctors for everybody to cannabis for medical My mission is to try to analyse purposes (where perhaps these political and electoral processes. And doctors don’t reach the patients ...); here, of course, I also rely on the from Monaco brought to Orhei, to Jora opinion polls. Only I’m very careful de Mijloc extrapolated to the whole when I work with them, because the situation in the country has changed. country. And why not if the mixed n order to take the pulse of the voting system and the money “saved” Everything has become somewhat more Icompetition for the Parliament difficult, there are many signs that the from “where is the stolen billion?” allow more accurately, the current for any fantasies and any candidates? citizens are frightened and that means edition of the Newsletter was people are not really sincere when developed at the last minute of What is de facto going to happen answering the sociologists’ questions. the electoral campaign. And even after 24 February 2019 and what is They fit their answers to the ears of the exactly the Parliament going to look if we all live in the Republic of questioners, rather than express their like nobody ventures to say. The Moldova, where “surprises” can attitude. This means that when we work with the polls’ results, we can expect, Moldavian voters are unpredictable. occur even in the night before what is called, the “spiral of silence,” Perhaps only the opinion pollsters could the vote, the basic trends are in which many experience a sort of tell us, but their results, the closer to evident and some conclusions can fear or, let’s say, caution. I mean, they the election day, the more ping-pong be made. What are they; how would vote for an opposition party, but balls flying in every direction – so also did the society live with a new they don’t want to say it openly. Hence, here the situation is as usual... What electoral race; and to what extent perhaps, the embarrassing situation distinguishes the current election have the citizens been involved when, on the same day of February campaign from the previous ones and and consulted in this process? 18th, one poll credited PSRM with 26 what we didn’t or should have so that We talked about this with Igor percent and another one -with 49 we manage to finally do it differently, Boțan, executive director of the percent. By the way, I noticed that in the learn from the new edition of the measurements made by the Association Newsletter. Association for Participatory Democracy (ADEPT). of Sociologists and Demographers, the

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 2 (156), february 2019 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] FEBRUARY 2019 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 3

socialists, usually, always appear much this context, to what extent have the be recognized by the international better than their counter-candidates, warnings coming from the EU, the USA, community? For not only us see just as the Euro-Asian direction is much etc regarding the election test, which these anomalies but also the many more acceptable for our fellow citizens. our country must pass – fair elections observers who are already in Chisinau. This is a rather strange situation, since with equal conditions for all- been in all the other polls this ratio is already taken into account? Everyone sees what kind of elections different for one and a half years, with we are having. Administrative the European integration being much We had enough time to study our resources are being openly used. The more widely accepted by people. governors. It is the power and the state secretaries, a priori apolitical, ability to manifest themselves as a living are campaigning with the already These results may simply be political force that is important for them. famous blue bus. All sorts of post- the reflection of the sometimes And when you have such a challenge factum holidays and reliefs are being contradictory nature of Moldovans, in front of you, can you think about a invented ... Although the entire state who don’t see a problem travelling “fair campaign?!” Here is one example: administration, the ministers are busy with the Romanian passport all over the social shops. The authorities have with the campaign, the Government is Europe and, at the same time, voting ignored any attempt to shed more assuming responsibility to Parliament for the socialists? light on them - what are these social for various laws. These are unthinkable shops, and since when political parties things for a rule of law. In parallel, we We can admit such behaviour, can deal with commercial or charitable are witnessing an avalanche of all sorts because what is lacking in our society activity? Trade is not the prerogative of of electoral gifts- from cheap knick- - and that is what all citizens feel - political parties, their mission is to have knacks to wage increases. Mr Candu is the notion of justice. And when visions... PSRM has opened its mouth says that the Plahotniuc Foundation people feel that there is no justice, or a little bit to say that the “Shor Party” has provided various services to almost the potentates of the day do justice is stealing from us, but shut it quickly one million citizens of the Republic according to the rule “everybody is down because, in principle, it is doing of Moldova. Mr. Shor declares that stealing, but we also give others from the same thing through the “Solution” he “blessed” 300 thousand people in what we have stolen”, there might exist or the First Lady’s “From the Heart” the country with cards for his social a similar paradigm for a fairly wide Foundations. De facto, we see that three shops. Mr Dodon firmly claims that half segment of the population. Respectively, parties – all, surprisingly, socialist and a million people benefited from the they can say one thing, because that’s social-democratic – apart from politics, services of the foundation led by his “good”, but vote for another thing. We are doing also charity work, and other wife. There’s never been anything like cannot ignore this and we have seen things that do not really fit into the that! Where else, in which countries it very clearly in the 2016 presidential political activity. From this point of view, are the political parties affiliated with election. That’s why I don’t venture to surely you are right. The citizens also see charity foundations? And how can the make predictions. I can only talk about this - who the master is; who penalizes Opposition, in such a situation, say the my expectations, which are rather everyone; how much the government elections are free and fair? These are pessimistic, because an impoverished attacks the opposition and accuses it unimaginable things. society, a society out of which the of treason against the state, as it was quality people run away, cannot give in the case of the “Open Dialogue” In this situation, what is going optimistic results in the elections. - and naturally they prefer to be less to happen next Monday? They are honest and open. That is why, in 2014, talking again about protests... An avalanche of “charity” from when the people felt freer, the opinion charity party foundations polls reflected, though at the limit, I believe, next Monday, there will be more accurately the citizens’ voting press conferences, where everyone will You have mentioned about fear, preferences. But now we have 20% gap- be highlighting the shortcomings of the when people are afraid to answer anomalies, which is not normal. campaign, will be making conclusions honestly even in polls where they about “the level of democracy in the remain anonymous. Isn’t this fear an Given this indictment, how high Republic of Moldova”, but all are going effect of an unfair campaign? And, in is the risk that the elections will not to be polite and avoid calling things

their name, limiting themselves to implementation of the Association could win the overwhelming majority. recommendations on improving the Agreement. They will develop a new Would that be a catastrophe? legal framework. As for the protests, formula to help Moldova, including I’m not convinced they are of any use. new conditionalities. Unfortunately, Also in 2001, when Mr Voronin We protested when the billion was I think this is the scenario, but we won the legislative constitutional stolen and exactly at that time, in the cannot get annoyed with the situation majority, they were discussing about heart of Moldova, in the Orhei Codrii, as we cannot always demand from the a catastrophe. But, one year and a Mr Ilan Shor won the mayoralty in whole world to solve our problems. half later, he signed the decree on the Orhei in the first round. What is the European integration of the country point of protesting if those who have Is the European money going to and in May 2008 asked the EU to accumulated capital by unorthodox come or come back? give us a chance to integrate with the methods can buy the citizens, and the Western Balkans... Mr Dodon seems latter accept that? Also Mr Dodon has I think there will be new to know this history very well and I promised he’ll protest if... he doesn’t conditionalities. And the money will would say he can anticipate things. know what. But I have seen it very not come as it once did, especially He was in Munich and didn’t attack well how Mr Dodon protests – with that the governors have shown they the Association Agreement, on the permission from the police and ... not don’t really need such funding. And if contrary...; last summer at the Crans- just that. so - because they found resources for Montana Forum, he announced he gifts for the New Year’s Eve and Easter, was working on a plan to join the Europeans should demand and also 200 MDL to pay for every European Union... And his socialists from us to open all cupboards... child since birth until the age of 18, are not even revolting against it, which the Europeans and other development raises a big question mark. For Mrs It seems the risk of total partners could ask a question as natural Greceanii remains the president of the deterioration of relations with as legitimate: “Gentlemen, you are Party of Socialists, whose programme external partners in the case of not lacking resources! It turns out the says: “Cancellation of the Association fraudulent elections is not going to country has been stolen, also by the Agreement and adhesion to the work, being just a scarecrow? political elite, and now, when we closed Customs Union”. They should at least your tap, you showed that you can find call a congress to adjust their political I think, on Sunday, somehow money for the elections! Let us count programme to the new “realities”, traditionally, the appearances of free these resources and show everything demonstrating that they are serious elections will be kept up. As a result, you have in the cupboards! Perhaps, and don’t play at both ends of the our foreign partners will also say that without our money, you will do better, table. “it is the choice of the citizens of the using your brains and destroying the Republic of Moldova”. And they’ll be corruption nests - because you know So, the sky is not going to fall on the right. Yeah, the conditions were harsh, where they are!” By the way, this Earth if the socialists win, eventually. but nobody put guns to people’s heads. would be an idea: before opening On the contrary, in order to maintain Whatever people sow, that they will funding for the Republic of Moldova, power, they will make concessions reap. And they are going to conform Brussels should ask Chisinau to publish and try to strike a balance so as not to the people’s will. After that they the extra funding sources and to cut to jeopardize the smooth functioning will remind us that the Republic of off all channels through which the of the Free Trade Area, which is Moldova is a member of the Eastern many is draining into the hairy hands benefiting also the Transnistrian region. Partnership and that there is an of... And then maybe, indeed, we can Moreover, at all economic forums, Mr Association Agreement. They will take start developing with our own forces Dodon is inviting the Belarusian and a break to see how the dialogue will without begging for money. Is this not Russian businessmen to come to invest be established for the creation of the the fourth way? in Moldova and thus enjoy the benefits parliamentary majority... After that of free trade with the EU. they will enter a dialogue that will be It’s a beautiful hypothesis, but focused on a new action plan for the it seems less realistic than the one Regarding PSRM and its formal and according to which the socialists informal leaders, how plausible is

that the National People’s Movement And so, the name itself becomes for. Otherwise, he\she will not be a “Powerful President, strong State” improper... representative of the people, but a launched in January, becomes a way “savior” for various local issues. What of Igor Dodon’ dissociation from the It is not of integrity, because it does the deputy, for instance, have party that propelled him so that he doesn’t attest to whether one is of to do with the garbage? The MPs can create a new, more modern, integrity or not, but it says that the should develop waste collection and social-democratic party? institutions empowered to check your recycling strategies at country level. conflicts of interests have no claims So, the deputy’s withdrawal is more of It is more of a plan to make sure on you ... Ideally ANI should have de a bedtime tale, showing the quality of that there are people who, at his first facto and not only de jure the capacity the political class, but also the quality call, will take to the street. This is very to carefully study the statements - to of the so-called constitutional experts. simple: Mr Dodon fears he might be observe the possible irregularities, take removed from the presidential office self-initiative actions and investigate I think they understand it very well or that some of the socialist deputies thoroughly until it issues the final that they are cheating on the people... might suddenly leave for another camp decision that can be attacked in - and then he should at least imitate court by the concerned person. But I guess so too. But if they are a kind of rebellion. But I don’t think it seems ANI is not prepared for such cheating and the citizens are not these people have the courage to face a challenge, nor is the society - for a retaliating ... I’m risking to say that it. fully functional integrity institution of this society is in a state of continuous public utility. It doesn’t mean, however, degradation. Because skilled people People are that it must be annihilated at this first leave and only the underdogs remain simply taking revenge failure. No! Society needs to discuss it who, in a very specific manner, take on the political class and those who will come to Parliament revenge on everything and everyone: should find solutions to this integrity “You are all stealing, we know it, but mechanism as a matter of priority. And if you give us something from what In the current campaign, emphasis together with that, they should explain you stole, we’ll see.” As it happened in has been more than ever, perhaps, to us how can charity foundations act Orhei and Jora de Mijloc. This is also a placed on the need for integrity - together with political parties; what signal for our development partners, starting with the establishment of happens with polarization and biased who, somehow indirectly, being more ANI and ending up with investigations media; why can a politician be, at the indulgent toward the representatives that give people the opportunity to same time, a media-tycoon and do of the political class, have contributed get informed about a candidate’s propaganda for himself and his party? to this state of affairs in our country. history and make an informed choice, These questions have to be answered Because as long as you give money – respectively. Why is it so difficult with by the new MPs. the European taxpayers’ money! – to this? the Moldovan Government and don’t If not, the citizens can trigger MPs’ regulate their spending, it is difficult Those who thought it is going to withdrawal mechanism... to be totally absolved of responsibility. be easy, were wrong. This integrity But there is also a good side to the project is long-lasting, as long as Sure, this is a very nice joke, just current situation: things have been citizens don’t understand that that. People don’t understand that unveiled. So now we have a much those who govern must be clean. if, according to the Constitution, the better diagnosis for the country and its The problem lies in the citizens, on elected representatives of the people citizens. the one hand. And, on the other have a representative mandate, that hand, there is a problems with the is, we have representative democracy, Hopefully, on Sunday, we will way they understood - or someone you cannot turn it into a democracy also get the treatment that is going wanted them to understand - the of “foremen”. If you admit that the to recover us. Thank you for the role of the certificate of integrity. For deputy may be withdrawn, you must interview. this certificate has been issued to prescribe in advance the reasons everybody who asked for it... you are withdrawing the deputy Sorina Ștefârță

Editorial Integrity as an empty electoral promise Viorica Zaharia, Chair of the Press Council, editor-in-chief of The searching through archives has often the Moldovacurata.md portal revealed truly significant facts that, in other societies, could convince the voters to change One of the words used in this election their minds. Thus, a candidate from Glodeni campaign more often than any other was was found to have used illegal workforce at his certainly “integrity”. However, while some own enterprise having been fined for it by the political parties have used this notion, at least Labour Inspectorate. In another case, it was at the declarative level, as a selection criterion discovered that a rayon president hired his for candidates in the list, others seem to have daughter-in-law to work for the district council outdone themselves in proposing characters he was chairing and didn’t see a conflict of that are far from being innocent. Entering elections with interest in it. A third one took the press to court, refusing to candidates who have undergone criminal investigations, deliver information of public interest. So, being helped by used fake diplomas, or spent public money to enrich the journalists, the parties could have easily ‘cleaned up’ their family businesses is a clear sign that the future governance lists had they had a minimum commitment to integrity and is not going to be totally different from the current one, fairness. But no one went to such lengths. and given the government’s anti-corruption commitments from the recent years, we can say that we are witnessing Parties. The presence of compromised candidates on party a defiance of both voters and external partners. To what lists should be understood as a clear ‘promise’ of the parties extent do this relate to the much-coveted - officially to respect the rules of ‘political correctness’ – to be read as announced - efforts aimed at consolidating the democracy ‘political clan’ - when in government. For the more candidates and creating an image of “honest player” for the country? of blurred integrity on the lists, the clearer the party’s I’m afraid we are dealing here with a rhetorical question. ‘commitment’ to (not to) implement real anti-corruption reforms and to (not to) promote people with compromised There are at least three stakeholders who, throughout this reputation. In the case of the Democratic Party, for example, electoral period and before the start of the parliamentary we expected that at least people such as Chiril Gaburici who electoral campaign, have a say in the polemic about the – even proved by the Prosecutor’s Office - used a fake high integrity of the candidates: mass media, the parties, and the school diploma will not be on the party list. The integrity filter National Integrity Authority. – only if there was such a thing while establishing the party lists – didn’t work in the case of lower-rank leaders either: Mass media. Being one of its representatives, I will give the mayors, district presidents, or head of agencies, all involved in mass media a positive mark. In this campaign - probably conflicts of interest. About Grigore Repeșciuc, PDM candidate more than in any other electoral campaigns - the media in Căuşeni, for example, the press learned in the middle of have emphasized the integrity of parliamentary candidates. the campaign that, being mayor of the locality, he concluded The editorial staffs have thoroughly worked on integrity contracts with his family and hired his son-in-law as driver, profiles and have brought to light everything relevant to the preparing him as a successor to the town hall. “political history” of the aspiring Parliament candidates: they have analysed their political trajectories, wealth, behaviour Neither the lists of other parties are shining clean. The in public service, conflicts of interest, etc. The civil society, socialists’ lists are full of people who have no plausible through actions such as the Civic Initiative for a Clean answer to the question of where they got tens of thousands Parliament has developed, together with the lawyers, clear of dollars donated to the party in recent years, for some were criteria that indicate whether a candidate can be considered unemployed and others worked exclusively for the state. of integrity or not. There are also candidates who have resorted to fictitious

marriages to obtain land plots at a lower price... Also the contrary, ANI demonstrated its loyalty to the Power when, for “Shor” Party seems to have hand-picked its candidates in the similar situations, it issued different certificates for a ‘Power image of its leader who has serious integrity problems. protégé” and for an Opposition representative.

In the case of the Opposition, the situation is different, It is clear that the people concerned knew from the start that although in at least several cases the filters didn’t work there. the certificate ... didn’t certify anything. However, according to Otherwise, how can we explain the presence among the the law, it must reflect conflicts of interest, incompatibilities, current candidates of the judge Domnica Manole who, despite information about undeclared assets found by CNI/ ANI her civic and political position, has a case of non-declaration of regarding the applicant over the past three years. As the assets and another case of violation of professional ethics? institution was under reformation in this period- as it was obvious that only a period of seven to eight months from The withdrawal of ‘sinful’ candidates from the lists would have the years 2015-2016 was considered- none of the parties’ been a gesture of political goodwill, but it seems that all the important figures were checked by CNI. political parties from the electoral race have overlooked these facts, probably counting on the ‘anomaly’ of the Moldovan In other words, the core mission of ANI is not issuing integrity electorate who used to vote without any problems even certificates, but the prevention of corruption by checking the for candidates under criminal investigation. Although the assets and interests of civil servants. Despite the generous comparison is not proportionate, let us remember how, at the funding from the Budget and external projects, ANI has not 2017 presidential elections, the French voters penalised the shown at least that it wants to deal with it. It hasn’t delivered candidate who had hired his wife for his parliamentary office!.. yet (more than one year after the reform) any consistent decision regarding incomes, unjustified wealth or conflicts of ANI. Created at the end of 2017 after a tedious reformation interest. While the press was publishing investigations under process of the old CNI (National Centre for Integrity), the big headlines, ANI kept silent. At the presentation of the 2018 National Integrity Authority (ANI) that was to revolutionize report, asked how many times ANI went on checks following the national integrity system soon became ‘a great the media reports, Rodica Antoci replied: twice. It is not known disappointment.’ From a rather inefficient institution - but what those are, but it is certain that in two cases reported at least transparent as CNI - we have achieved an absolutely by the Clean Moldova portal (in the autumn 2018) ANI has inefficient and completely closed for the press structure. In initiated controls. So it means in all other cases reported by 2018, the ANI was sued by the Association of Independent the mass media, ANI didn’t take any action. Press for several refusals to respond to requests for access to information, situations that didn’t happen during the CNI. These results of the ANI’s activity wouldn’t perhaps generate The institution didn’t come up with an explanation even in revolt if there wasn’t enough support for the given institution. full swing of the campaign, when the public opinion was Only from a World Bank project, for example, 2.162 million wondering why ANI was issuing discretionarily certificates of MDL was allocated for the purchase of the electronic system integrity – despite the fact that, as it turned out quickly, they for online submission of income and interest declarations. To had no value for the electoral process of the candidate... these figures is added seven million MDL, which is paid from the Budget for the digital signatures distributed to the civil Introduced for the first time in the current election, this servants. In addition, let’s not forget the countless training and document has been seen, including by some politicians - study visits for the ANI employees funded by external partners. who have later withdrawn their statements - as a filter for compromised candidates. Very soon, however, the certificate In these circumstances, when the main state structure with turned out to be nothing but a formality that no one needed, the integrity control function has been inert in verifying and but which, of course, consumed the time, effort and money sanctioning candidates’ abuses both before and after the of the National Integrity Authority. In the Activity Report for elections, there should have been some internal mechanisms 2018, ANI President, Rodica Antoci, announced that in these within the parties. As the latter haven’t proven their elections the institution issued 1261 certificates of integrity. effectiveness, we are going to see how the third mechanism - However, the candidates are not more integral and the the vote-based punishment applied by the electorate on the Central Election Committee didn’t reject any application for basis of the information it received through the press in the registration because of the content of the certificate. On the current electoral campaign – is going to work.

We can talk about an honest campaign when the conditions are equal for everyone Pavel Postică, programme director at Promo-Lex Moldova

onitoring of electoral campaigns and logic of the monitoring that M- whether it is done by local Promo-Lex has been doing for ten observers or international missions, or years already. Otherwise, every whether it targets the whole process electoral contestant is entitled to state or only some of its components, his/her position. such as mass media - has become a practise for the Republic of Moldova. The reports are taken into The electoral campaign for the account when they fit political th February 24 parliamentary elections, interests which officially started on January 24th, but de facto started at least However, as far as I remember, it one year ago, is also being followed is for the first time that a political closely. One of the organizations that accusations, which the Democratic actor chose to put monitors in their has been monitoring the national Party of Moldova (PDM) has publicly place rather than analyse its potential electoral process for at least a decade formulated on several occasions. It mistakes. is Promo-Lex. This time, however, its happened last autumn for the first members have come to the public time, when the representatives of this Never since 2009 has any electoral attention not only due to the reports party spoke, more generally, about contestant attacked us in the way they have produced, but also because the involvement of civil society in it has happened in the current of the objections of lack of objectivity the electoral campaign. No names campaign. I have qualified this as brought to them by some political were given then, they only insisted on intimidation of the observation actors - especially the Democratic the idea that the civil society, being mission and I have spoken openly Party of Moldova, in response to the paid from abroad, is influencing the about that. For one reaction has conclusions of the first monitoring electoral campaign. Later on, they followed another: three statements report, which stated the PDM had reacted to our first pre-election report, of the PDM, then somehow a similar taken advantage of its role of ruling blaming us for not being objective, reaction of a member of the Central party in order to secure unfair etc. We responded through a public Electoral Commission (CEC), Iurie pre-electoral advantages over its statement. The third attempt to Ciocan. According to them, we competitors. How was the electoral intimidate us was the PDM letter shouldn’t produce interim reports, campaign from the observers’ sent to embassies and development but only final post-elections ones, perspective, we can find out from partners, accusing us of having no giving an evaluation to the entire Pavel Postica, programme director at evidence to confirm what we write electoral process. They tried to assure Promo-Lex Moldova. in the reports, of not being impartial us that any violation can be repaired. and of not paying attention to events Perhaps this is also explained by Mr. Postica, have you reconciled that actually happened outside of the the fact that they have requested with the PDM? reporting period. In turn, we visited information about the violations all the electoral contestants and found by us - either to repair them or We neither quarrelled nor talked with them. We have once again to try to explain that they were not reconciled. There have been some explained to them the methodology violations.

In general, how much do they here, it’s important to be clear. There In fact, over the last few weeks, take into account your reports and are parties that take account of our opinion polls figures have flown like the reports of other monitoring recommendations and others that ping-pong balls, always changing... organizations? Because the mission are ignoring us. The Communists, What can we expect on February 25th? of a monitoring report, as far as for example, have submitted several I understand it, is to determine draft laws based on our reports... No one can say that and neither me. avoidance of mistakes in the future Certainly, the polls show the trend, by pointing out to such mistakes... This invisible intimidation has and namely that between three and deep effects... seven political parties will get into the Everything is relative, especially Parliament. in the case of reports on the How do you see the 2019 Elections electoral segment. In 2014, for of which has remained very little? If we were to take the worst four example, the Promo-Lex reports violations you found in the electoral served as a ground for the It is very little time left until election, process, the first mentioned was Constitutional Court to reject the but it’s not over yet! But some the use of administrative resources. recount of votes demanded by the conclusions, indeed, can already be It’s been a problem since the Reformist Communists. On several made, and namely: this campaign independence of the Republic of occasions, including on the basis has been marked by the use of Moldova. Why does it persist? Is it a of our reports, we have succeeded administrative resources, by electoral matter of unresolved legal loopholes in promoting certain legislative gifts, by not declaring all expenses or?... changes, the most recent example and by intimidations of both electoral being the permission to campaign candidates and voters. To these can be This phenomenon is not new, on election day. It is a matter we added hate speech and some purely but it’s never been as obvious as have been promoting since 2009, technical deficiencies, especially linked in the current campaign. This year, but they have done it now, only in to the electoral rolls and electoral however, we can speak of at least two half measures. Because you cannot litigation. In this context, mention ramifications when it comes to using allow electoral campaigning on should be made that intimidation the administrative resources. The the “zero” day and, at the same took various forms – from beatings in first is the use of public spaces during time, prohibit its financing on that Edinet and broken windows in Soroca working hours - because whether we day, for the financial reports have to ordinary incidents at the meetings like it or not - the biggest employer in to be submitted on Friday before with voters, while some people who the Republic of Moldova is the state. the elections... So, the reports are sympathize with certain parties and So most voters can be found in public taken into account, more or less who have some authority in the institutions and enterprises, and the immediately, when they fit a political locality, simply come and interrupt most convenient thing to do is to meet interest. the events through various tricks them at the working place. Sometimes and to the limit of harassment. The people go to such meetings voluntarily What about political parties international observers almost don’t and other times they are invited under - if is to disregard the possible notice such situations - people are the pretext of a meeting. De facto, annoyances of some actors on this not bleeding and are not shooting... it happens during working hours, segment - how receptive are they? But this invisible intimidation has although they formally say they do deep effects, being also reflected the meetings during the lunch break Also in their case the things are in the polls, according to which ... The second so-called ramification, relative. If, for example, we had no 70% of respondents are afraid to which stands out, is the involvement MDL reported as travel costs in 2009, speak publicly about their political of state secretaries in the campaign there are parties today that declare preferences. And this leads to the fact - those secretaries, who replaced the their own cars that they use in the that the margin of error in the case of deputy ministers appointed on political campaign. And there’s nothing illegal political issues is excessively high. terms. Being a key element of the

central public administration reform, monitoring, we are guiding ourselves the reports on Jora de Mijloc show the state secretaries are presumed to by these international standards. that they spent well beyond the be apolitical actors and what we are threshold there. Now there are seeing today in the blue campaign So the gift doesn’t just mean a bag suspicions that also in the current buses... of rice on which “Shor” is written ... campaign, in some constituencies, Why do the relevant institutions such much more resources are being spent Yes, the Electoral Code allows any as ANI fail to see it? than allowed by the law. More parties citizen to discuss any political aspect. are doing it, using the same scheme. But here we have a problem of If we are talking about this organized campaign. However, they desideratum called “integrity”, To what extent did the change of are not registered as members of the with reference to ANI we have to the electoral system and namely the candidate’s support team or haven’t understand a few things: 1) it is a new mixt voting system open the door resigned temporarily from their jobs institution; 2) there is no very clear to, let’s say, more exotic or more for the campaign period etc. In parts, mechanism for exchanging information controversial characters into the perhaps, including retrospectively, between the state institutions that politics? certain formalities have been are responsible for a certain type of observed, but the general impression integrity (Central Electoral Committee, If we look a little bit in time, we is that both the legal and the moral Information and Security Service, will see that in all the elections we’ve part have been overlooked. Ministry of Internal Affairs, Tax had situations when the parties made Authority ...) and transmitting all data changes to the lists at the last minute. The Orhei scenario has been to ANI. Respectively, empty certificates And then, as now, they were saying the taken over by other parties are being issued. Here is another new entrants were not without sins... issue regarding the double necessity That is why I would not blame the mixt This massive and almost defiant of this certificate: for the electoral electoral system, especially since there use of administrative resources body in order to get registered and for is a national list. And I think we have to th passes lightly into another Moldovan the public. That is, if this certificate wait until February 25 to speak about phenomenon - the electoral gifts... indicates that you haven’t paid taxes it less hypothetically. or have been convicted, the citizen They are even more visible and should know about it so that they can Has this campaign been uglier and are a combination of gifts and use of make an informed opinion. dirtier than the previous ones? administrative resources. These are salary increases that were not planned Is it possible that the scenario from There have been more gifts and in the Budget, free medicines, doctors Orhei/ Jora de Mijloc be replicated more administrative resources used. and homes for everyone. Yes, the in other localities of the Republic of Otherwise, I think there were both legislation of the Republic of Moldova Moldova? good and bad things about it; both does not prohibit such, but at the developments and involutions. In same time there are international I think it’s already being replicated. addition, we cannot compare the standards, which we claim to respect, Only it is very complicated to estimate 2009 with the 2019 elections – the according to which you can make how much exactly they will spend and techniques and technologies have also such gestures only at certain times, how much they have de facto spent in changed. But it is natural to want, as a long before the elections. In addition, the single-mandate constituencies. For society, something better. obviously, these gifts influence here, I think, the big problem is that people’s opinion. And if our legislation you can talk about an honest campaign We wish the entire Promo-Lex team is not perfect, it doesn’t mean we when the conditions are equal for a fruitful and incident-free election do not have to aim for something everyone. There is, for example, a on Sunday, and thank you for the better. That is precisely why, during minimum threshold of 100,000 MDL, interview. which you cannot exceed. However, Sorina Ștefârță

Expert opinion

Nicu Popescu: „These elections are the most unpredictable of all that the Republic of Moldova has ever had”

nternal general elections are 24th about who was able to get on foreign policy concept of a “balance Ialways an event that has an board and who remained on the between the East and the West”, external impact, because apart shore... The same evening, we are but has mentioned - for the first from the policies that are going to going to find out to what extent time so clearly - that he is not be promoted internally by the new Moldovans have been scared by going to endanger the Association government, the election results the danger of Russian tanks or, on Agreement with the European are going to influence the foreign the contrary, by the new wave of Union. policy direction of the country in “30 thousand Syrians”. Until then, the next four years, as well as the however, we are inviting you to About the margin of economic regional situation. As it turns out, it read what Nicu Popescu, political manoeuvre seems natural that since 1990, none scientist, senior analyst at the EU of the electoral campaigns in the Institute for Security Studies in Paris The foreign policy preferences of Republic of Moldova could neglect and associate lecturer at Sciences President’s Dodon is no surprise the geopolitical stake. Sometimes Po/ PSIA, thinks about possible for Moldova’s European partners. being real, the latter was most post-election developments. And there is one more thing which often invented, in the absence of Mention should be made that this is evident for everyone - that the real solutions to even more real article is an adapted version of political statements of the Socialist problems... The current race to Nicu Popescu’s interview for the Party run counter to the economic Parliament in which as a result of Radio Free Europe from February realities, given that about 60% of the change of the electoral system 18th. Moldovan President Igor the country’s foreign trade is with both parties and individual citizens Dodon’s presence at the recent the EU and (even if this figure have ventured into, is no exception International Security Conference differs from one year to the next) in this sense. in Munich served as a starting and only about 10% is with Russia. point in the discussion. The head This thing is severely limiting the We will know already on February of state wanted to promote his margin of economic manoeuvre of

the Republic of Moldova, because sense, Igor Dodon’s behaviour is two scenes or two fronts, two any attempt on the Association not different from the behaviour of battlefields. One is related to the Agreement with the EU would mean all the political leaders who have political positions of certain leaders: immediate economic collapse, governed the Republic of Moldova campaigning, statements, disputes, hundreds of thousands of job losses, for the last almost 30 years. This is talk shows, electoral programmes posing risks for not only economic, because, as a matter of fact, this that change from day to day or from but also social and political upheaval. population wants to have decent week to week and which are, in Therefore, commercial and economic relations with both the East and fact, very volatile. At the same time, dependent processes are limiting the the West. At the same time, the there is a second stage where the margin of manoeuvre of any political disproportionate geography of trends are very slow, but very well actors in Chisinau, including of those President Dodon (the immense gap structured and hardly reversible. This who want a stronger rapprochement between visits to Moscow and visits is related to the country’s economy, of the country with Russia. A second paid to other states) is not just about state development and the degree element that is drastically restricting his choice, being explained by the of democratic education of the Mr Dodon’s foreign policy options is fact that he is more often welcomed population. From the economic point the Ukrainian factor as any approach in the Kremlin than at the Élisée of view, the Republic of Moldova, to Russia can only be made with the Palace in France or in the UK, or in as I said, is very dependent on the implicit agreement of Ukraine. For, Berlin. European Union and I don’t think in fact, Kiev has a right to veto the that the country’s future leaders development of Moldovan-Russian About unpredictable forecasts have the political and economic relations when it comes to some freedom to do whatever they want, very concrete things, such as the The truth is these elections are the regardless of the mandate and party export of goods by rail or by trucks most unpredictable of all that the programme they will come with in to Russia. Republic of Moldova has ever had, the Parliament. No economy can because everything depends on afford to turn its back to a market About the post-electoral the alignments and coalitions that absorbing 60 per cent of its exports “adjustments” will be created in Parliament after and that hundreds of thousands the elections, especially because of people depend on. Look at how The fact that Igor Dodon wants good of the MPs who will be elected in complicated the divorce of the UK relations both with the East and single-mandate constituencies. from the European Union is – not the West is not a surprise, because, Nobody has the network to even London can afford not to have in fact, most of the political forces understand, predict or make surveys a functioning agreement with the in Chisinau have always said this. in order to understand the concrete EU... All the more so the Republic The so-called pro-European or the perspectives in each constituency of Moldova doesn’t have the luxury so-called pro-Russian forces have for each political candidate. So, in to follow the geopolitical fantasies always watered down their political this sense, we cannot predict at this of one or another political actor discourse and behaviour after being stage the majority that is going to without taking into account the elected - those who have been control the Parliament in Chisinau. possible economic consequences. elected on a pro-Russian platform have become less pro-Russian About geopolitical fantasies About federalization scenarios and more centrist, while the pro- Europeans became less pro-NATO The realities of any country, including There is such a risk - that the next and more open to dialogue with of the Republic of Moldova, are parliamentary majority will try to the Russian Federation. So, in this determined and influenced by change the internal policy balance

in the Republic of Moldova through occurs, it is inevitable that some taken less seriously than ten years federalization and an “on paper” of the very important positions ago, for example. These statements reintegration with the Transnistrian in the state will be offered to the are part of a rather aggressive and region. But this would blow up Transnistrian region; there will rather agitated style, and can be the whole political system and all probably be a referendum, another interpreted as a kind of threat, these semi-balances established Chamber of Parliament may be but also as a kind of ordinary anti- over the past 30 years. At the same created, and new elections may Americanism that the Russian time, regarding the preferences be organised. I don’t think these Foreign Ministry produces on every of the population, we know very things are feasible and that the current dossier. Once Chisinau well that people don’t want to public opinion could accept such entered the electoral period, it also make major concessions to the a profound reformation of the entered the map of Russia’s quite Transnistrian region. Everybody Republic of Moldova as to have unfriendly statements. But if we look wants reintegration, but one in representatives from Tiraspol in a little more globally, we can see which Chisinau will remain dominant the leading positions of the country that they are the daily product of over the Transnistrian region. This - parliament speakers, prime the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Press is not possible as neither Moscow ministers, deputy ministers... Department, and even if there is nor Tiraspol would accept such an nothing good in them, everyone has arrangement. So, indeed, there is About possible destabilization become accustomed to them and a risk of federalist movements, but announced by the Russian treats them with a certain dose of we also have the position of the foreign office scepticism. opposition and public opinion which are very hostile to fundamental The problem of Russian diplomacy concessions for the left bank. In is that the value of its words has concrete terms, if this reintegration dropped a lot, which is why it is

The opinions expressed in the newsletter are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) or of the Foreign Policy Association (APE).

Foreign Policy Association (APE) is a non-governmental organization committed to supporting the integration of the Republic of Moldova into the European Union and facilitating the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of the country Europeanization. APE was established in fall 2003 by a group of well-known experts, public personalities and former senior officials and diplomats, all of them reunited by their commitment to contribute with their expertise and experience to formulating and promoting by the Republic of Moldova of a coherent, credible and efficient foreign policy.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is a German social democratic political foundation, whose purpose is to promote the principles and foundations of democracy, peace, international understanding and cooperation. FES fulfils its mandate in the spirit of social democracy, dedicating itself to the public debate and finding in a transparent

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 2 (156),manner, february 2019 social democratic solutions to current and future problems of the society. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail:been [email protected] active in the Republic of Moldova since October 2002.