July 2020 Multilateral Dialogue Geneva Geneva Barometer Developments in Geneva’s International Organisations Mid-May 2020 – Mid-July 2020 , Olaf Wientzek, Diana Peters, Sarah Ultes, Theresa Landmann The “Geneva Barometer” takes an occasional look at a few selected developments amongst the international organ- isations based in Geneva. Things have been heating up in international Geneva Azevêdo, some countries called for a candidate from an since the middle of May: The World Health Organisation industrialised country. Conversely it was not only the Af- (WHO), which continues to fight COVID-19 and to imple- rican group that argued that it was time for the first Afri- ment the demands of the World Health Assembly can Director-General of the WTO. Still others argued that (WHA), has had to absorb a serious blow with the US's it was high time for the first election of a woman. notice of withdrawal. In the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the race to find a successor to the Director Gen- Worthy of note: The EU is not putting forward any candi- eral Azevêdo, who is stepping down on the 31st of Au- dates although the names of several high-ranking people, gust, has gathered momentum. At the same time, day- both women and men, were under discussion. The Irish to-day business is also gaining momentum in the Geneva EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan (EVP), had also for all organisations - among other things, there were several intents and purposes indicated his interest in the post. controversial debates at the Human Rights Council. However, when the candidature was expected in Geneva, Hogan declared his renouncement. One thing is certain: World Trade Organisation - Open race for He would probably have been the most promising Euro- leadership pean candidate and would also have been in the inner cir- cle of favourites. His choice could not, however, have Following the surprise resignation of WTO Director Gen- been considered a foregone conclusion either given the eral Roberto Azevêdo on the 31st of August, focus shifted equally strong competition or due to geopolitical consid- to the question of his successor. By the end of the appli- erations. Moreover, there is the threat of an impasse. An cation period on the 8th of July, a total of eight candi- agreement is not expected until late autumn or even early dates, three of them women, had submitted their appli- 2021 at the earliest. Even though it doesn't have its "own" cations. No fewer than three candidates came from Af- candidate, it can be assumed that the EU will stand united rica: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria), Amina Mohamed behind a candidate at the end of the selection process. (Kenya) and Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh (Egypt). Further can- More than a few European capitals indicated that it was didates are: Jesus Seade Kuri (Mexico), Yoo Myung-hee not so much the candidate's origin but above all their vi- (Republic of Korea), Tudor Ulianovschi (Moldova), Mo- sion for a reform of the WTO that was of primary im- hamed Maziad Al-Tuwaijri (Saudi Arabia) and Liam Fox portance. Some observers assume that many EU coun- (United Kingdom)1. tries could come out in support of an African candidate. The decision on the candidacy must be taken by consen- The race for the position appears to be completely open: sus. According to the experts, the basic principle is that a Amina Mohamed and, for many, Ngozi Okonjo-Iwaela are candidate must be acceptable to the US, the EU and China among the easy favourites. Both, especially the former World Bank director Okonjo-Iwaela, are political heavy- at the same time, and must not be blocked by India - a tough obstacle. Accordingly, asides from professional weights. An important criterion: The future WTO leader- qualifications and political weight, geographical consider- ship must be in a position to negotiate with the most im- portant heads of state and government on an equal foot- ations also play a significant role in the choice of candi- ing. However, the Nigerian candidate, who has long been date: After a Brazilian Director General in the shape of Mr. 1 Short biographies of all candidates are attached. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. country report July 2020 2 2 held as the favourite, is seen as having a lack of trade ex- negotiating text. The original aim was to reach an agree- pertise. Amina Mohamed, on the other hand, has pre- ment on this dossier in 2020, which is crucial for the sus- sided over the WTO Ministerial Conference 2015 in Nai- tainability agenda (Agenda 2030). robi as Foreign Minister. Both, however, will have to con- tend with the obstacle of having three candidates from Global health risks the African group in the race. Yoo Myung-Hee is not far behind. She is followed by Mamdouh and Seade Kuri, The figures in the daily COVID-19 reports remain dra- both of whom are regarded as excellent specialists and matic. More than 13 million cases and over 570,000 WTO aficionados. In contrast, the comparatively less ex- deaths have been confirmed worldwide, roughly half of perienced Ulianovschi is considered an outsider. Al-Tu- which are in North and South America. wajri and the British candidate Liam Fox are also seen as having a lower chance of selection. Although the latter WHO - request for withdrawal from the USA enjoys Washington's demonstrative goodwill, this could In the midst of the crisis, the WHO suffered a serious set- actually be a cause for rejection by China, among others. back: At the 73rd World Health Assembly in May, Presi- In the EU, enthusiasm for the Brexit hardliner Fox will also dent Trump threatened US withdrawal from the WHO - be limited. now the USA officially initiated the application for with- drawal of membership with UN Secretary-General The high number of candidates as well as the rapid US en- António Guterres. In one year's time, on the 6th of July dorsement of Fox could delay the selection process. It is 2021, the USA would therefore leave the WHO. The USA not unlikely that the WTO leadership will in future be in has been a member of the WHO since the 21st of June the hands of a woman (from Africa). However, the selec- 1948. The US Congress resolution on accession at the tion of candidates could become a battle of attrition, time stated that the USA reserved the right to withdraw - from which a compromise candidate could ultimately but with a twelve-month notice period, which means that emerge. this could be reversed under a new administration or if circumstances changed. If elected, Democratic presiden- The candidates now have until the 7th of September to tial candidate Joe Biden announced that he would reverse promote their candidacy to the WTO member states. The the decision on his first day in office. campaign began with individual press conferences with the candidates on the 15th-17th of July. A three-member US President Trump has accused the WHO of failing to in- panel chaired by New Zealand Ambassador David Walker form the international community about the danger of (Chairman of the WTO General Council) will then hold coronavirus in due time and of being under the control of consultations with member states to determine the most the government in China. The US President had already promising candidate. This phase should last a maximum frozen payments to the WHO in April, thereby attracting of two months and would therefore end on the 7th of No- heavy international criticism. However, one of the condi- vember. However, some observers expect a longer pro- tions for the enforcement of the withdrawal is the fulfil- cess. For the period following Azevêdo’s resignation, the ment of the US's financial obligations to the WHO. The WTO General Council may appoint one of the four Deputy USA - with more than USD 450 million per year the largest Directors-General as interim head. The frontrunner donor to the organisation - currently owes the WHO ap- would probably be the German Karl Brauner. proximately USD 200 million in contributions. The field of candidates is well cast overall - six of the eight candidates were previously ministers, the other two can- Critics have accused Trump of trying to draw attention didates are considered to have excellent knowledge of away from his own failures with his campaign against the the subject. The competition is likely to be correspond- WHO and China. The US State Department emphasised ingly tough. Expectations are high: The candidates must that the USA would continue its efforts to reform the present a credible concept for the reform of the WTO at WHO. the round of interviews. Furthermore, Azevêdo’s succes- Growing role of Germany in Global Health sor must reform the dispute settlement system and cut During the joint visit with his French colleague Olivier Gordian knots in difficult negotiation dossiers - overall a Véran, Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn sent a signal of truly Herculean task. Many observers warn that the fu- both financial and political solidarity. Germany promised ture of the WTO is at stake in the coming years. the WHO more than 500 million Euro for this year, and at In addition to the debate on personnel, there is also a the same time promised support for the reform of the gradual movement in negotiation dossiers: On the 25th WHO. During the visit, Mr Spahn also announced an addi- of June, the head of the fisheries working group, Colom- tional 20 million Euro for UNAIDS. Global health will also bia's WTO ambassador Santiago Wills, presented an initial be a central concern of the German EU Presidency.