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APRIL 1J:943 SURVEY OF UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COM1\1ERCE SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS APRIL 1943 ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS........................................ 2 THE BUSINESS SITUATION...................................... 3 The Steel Industry........................................................ 3 The Lumber Industry. • . • . • • • . • • • • • . • • . • • • • . • • • . 5 Consumer Expenditures................................................... 7 The Income Tax.......................................................... 8 POST-WAR MANPOWER AND ITS CAPACITY TO PRODUCE... 10 RELATION OF GOVERNMENT FINANCING TO GROSS INCOME FLOW........................................................... 17 PHYSICAL VOLUME OF FARM MARKETINGS, 1929-42........ 23 STATISTICAL DATA: Department Store Sales-Cleveland Federal Reserve District-Table 4........ 32 Monthly Business Statistics.................. S-1 General Index ....••.....•..••....•....................••..•••. Inside Back Cover Published by the Department of Commerce, JESSE H. JoN~Js, Secretary, and issued through the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, 0. P. HoPKINs, Acting Director Volume 23 Number 4 Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SuavEY oP CuRRENT BusiNESS, $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly. 15 centa; weekly, 5 cents, Foreign aubscriptions,$3.50. Price of the 1942 Supplement is 50 cents. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C. 517588-43--1 2 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS April 1943 Economic Highlights Farm Workers Fewer Despite Wage Rise Stocks of Food Products at Lower Levels The number of hired (non-family) workers employed on farm~ The recent pressure en food supplies, resulting from expanded is running nearly 10 percent less than a year ago according military, export, and ~onsumer demands, is reflected in the large to estimates of the Department of Agriculture. Total agricul­ drain on stocks of certain food products during the past year. tural employment, including both hired and family workers, i~ Of the selected li~t of 5 food products shown, production of 2 close to last year's level although the efficiency of the labor force (butter and eggs: is running above the levels of a year ago, while may possibly have_ declined. This decrease in employment of output of the ot11er 3 (cheese, evaporated milk, and beef) is below MILLIONS OF WORKERS DOLLARS PER MONiH MILLIONS OF POUNDS 4 70 300 ~FEBRUARY 1942 • FEBRUARY 1943 *COLO STORAGE STOCI($ t MANUFACTURERS' STOCKS, CASE GOODS 100 *FIRST OF EACH MONTH f FIRST OF JAN., APR., JIJLY, AND OOT. 0 POULTRY"' BEEF* BUTTER (CREAMERY)* 0.0.43-148 OD. 43-147 Hired Farm Workers and Average Farm Wage Rates. Stocks of Selected Foodstuffs, End of Month. hired farm workers has occurred despite a more than 30 percent last year's levels. Beef production, however, is scheduled to be wage advance over the same period and is, of course, a result higher in 1943 than last year. Even in cases where production both of departures into the armed forces and of better employment has increased, demands have multiplied faster and have been opportunities outside of agriculture. Although farm labor is met only by drawing on accumulated stocks. However these seen by many as our principal manpower problem during 1943, stocks are not large enough to withstand sustained drains over a the problem may not become too acute unless turnover of farm long period. According to recent figures, beef stocks were less workers increases rapidly. Production goals for agriculture this than 1 week's consumption, while butter stocks were less than year are about the same as last year's record output and labor requirements are also similar. Chief problem during 1943 will 10 percent of one month's output. Stocks of cheese and evap­ be to meet the seasonal peak demand for more than 3,000,000 orated milk were relatively larger but have already been drawn hired workers. The farm labor problem will be particularly down sharply. The recently effective rationing program covering acute in the case of fruit and truck crops where large numbers of meat, butter, and cheese should serve to reduce current de­ hired workers are needed for short periods. mands for these products and to protect stocks. Wholesale Prices Up in Belligerent Countries The present war has brought steadily increasing prices in nearly many where the Price Commissioner has been granted:very wide all countries, although the rate of price advance has varied geo­ I powers not only over prices but over taxes and production as graphically and has depended on well. This fact, together with the INDEX, AUGUST 1939 • 100 the special economic character- 180 r-----r-----r-----r-----r-----, inclusiveness of German econo­ istics peculiar to each country as mic controls, serves to explain well as on the general pressure of the smallness of the apparent wartime demand. Thus, all over 160 1-----.J.-----+----::::J...~=~=-1-----J price rise in that com•try. For Europe prices of agricultural prod­ all countries a definite slackening ucts have risen relative to prices in the rate of price advance may of other products, reflecting the 140 1------t--1--+----+----t-------l be observed to follow the estab­ difficult problem of food supply. lishment or strengthening of anti­ In the United Kingdom the price inflation measures. This is espe­ rise has been rapid, largely due to 120 f-----1-+ cially evident in the cases of the higher cost of imports growing Canada and the United States. out of shipping difficulties. Any In the case of Japan the index is comparison among price trend~ in based largely on nominal price different countries at present must quotations which may differ con­ take account of the variation in siderably from prices actually price control programs now in charged. This limitation is also 1939 effect. For example, price control 0.0.43-167 present, in some degree, in the has been carried farthest in Ger- Wholesale Prices of All Commodities for Selected Countries. indexes for all countries. April 1943 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 3 The Business Situation ONTINUED gains ir war output during March advance was too small in dollar terms, however, to C were accompanied by addi.ional restrictions upon contribute substantially to the alleviation of present the civilian economy. Producoion indexes generally inflationary pressure. continued to advance on a seasonally adjusted basis, \Var expenditures during March were approximately with the Federal Reserve index clilYJ.bing an apparent 2 7 billion dollars or at an annual rate in excess of 84 points due almost entirely to further advances among billion dollars. This rate of f'xpenditurc was almost the durable manufacturing industries. Munitions out­ one-sixth higher than February or 3 percent higher on put attained a new peak. Output of ingot steel moved a daily average basis. Since it set a new high for war narrowly higher while electric power production main­ spending it indicated that progress toward the peak tained the level of February, in contrast to the usual of the wnr production drive was being made. As this seasonal decline in prior years. peak dmws closer the pressure upon industries vital Wholesale prices also continued their steady rise, to the war effort naturally increases. The following advancing 1 point during March as prices of farm sections show how two industries, steel and lumber, products and of foods, the elements in the price struc­ both close to tho war program, have been affected by ture under less effective control, rose appreciably. recent developments and how they are likely to fare Prices of industrial products, under more effective during the balance of the present year. control, remained virtunlly steady. Retail trade, following the heavy buying wave in The Steel Industry February, returned to more normal levels in March Steel is perhaps the most important single material but remained above the same period in 1942. Led by required for the enormous war-production program near-panic buying of apparel, February retail sales ex­ scheduled this year. Our ability to produce steel de­ ceeded 4.5 billion dollars, an 18 percent gain over termines, in large measure, whether or not deliveries February 1942 and an all-time peak in terms of the of finished munitions and industrial products can be seasonally adjusted index. The index of apparel sales increased to rates required to sustain prospective mili­ jumped more than 60 points, or 30 percent, from Jan­ tary operations. To date shortages of steel and steel uary to February. Since supplies of consumer goods products have been a major factor restricting the ex­ are already dwindling, the effect of such a high level of pansion of war output. Allocation of steel among sales is, of course, to bring nearer the dates on which competing uses has become a steadily more difficult additional action to restrict consumption may have to problem and has largely determined the evolution of be taken. material-control methods. Extension of the food-rationing program to cover In 1940 and 1941, as the demand for steel developed meats, certain dairy products, fats, and oils high-lighted with the growth of the defense program, controversy this necessary wartime process of restricting consump­ arose over the rate at which pig iron and steel capacity tion which has been under way for some months. The should be expanded to meet essential requirements. outlook for food supplies was somewhat brightened, In fact the growth in steel capacity since 1940 has however, by reports that acreages planted in certain lagged far behind the increase in needs for steel. The crops this year were running well ahead of last year. actual capacity of the steel industry at the close of This is indicative of the serious efforts farmers are recent years, and the projected capacity upon com­ making to meet 1943 farm-output goals. pletion of the present expansion program are as follows, On the labor front transfers to war industries were in millions of net tons: reported to be increasing in response to the 48-hour Steel Pig iron capacity capacity week and essential activity orders.

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