Office Market Report Year-End 2015
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Metro Vancouver Office Market Report Year-End 2015 Metro Vancouver market remains balanced Vacancy rate December 31, 2015 10% as new supply supports the most positive Vacancy rate June 30, 2015 10.3% annual absorption recorded in a decade ignificant additions to Downtown Vancouver’s inventory of office Stowers contributed to regional vacancy rising to 10% at year-end 2015 from 9.4% at year-end 2014, but the development boom also helped ac- commodate more than 1.3 million square feet (msf) of annual absorption – the most recorded in Metro Vancouver in a decade. More than 1.7 msf ABSORPTION VACANCY RENTAL of new office space was delivered in Downtown Vancouver in 2015, and (DEMAND) (SUPPLY) RATES Downtown absorption of more than 1.1 msf significantly impacted the region’s annual absorption. While regional vacancy reached 10.3% at mid- Metro Vancouver - Vacancy and Absorption Trends year 2015 (due in part to the delivery of new Downtown office buildings in the first half of 2015), vacancy tightened in the second half despite the 12.0% 1,600,000 addition of new buildings in the Downtown core as well as the suburbs. 1,334,604 1,400,000 10.0% 10.5% 10% 1,200,000 Most suburban submarkets in Metro Vancouver recorded positive annual 9.4% 1,000,000 absorption in 2015, led by the ongoing recovery of Richmond’s office sub- e 8.0% e (sf) t t a 7.8% 800,000 a market, while Vancouver-Broadway and Yaletown were the only submar- R 7.4% R 7% y n kets to register negative annual absorption. The Vancouver-Broadway and c 6.0% 640,019 600,000 o i n t a 532,275 Yaletown submarkets are both located within Vancouver city limits. Volatility p c 400,000 r a 397,843 o V 4.0% in the Yaletown submarket in 2015 was tied directly to tenants relocating to 92,870 200,000 s b A occupy larger Downtown premises. In the Vancouver-Broadway submar- 0 2.0% ket, a number of tenants chose to search for office space efficiencies in an -200,000 -158,905 attempt to reduce costs – which subsequently led some to downsize or 0.0% -400,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F relocate, resulting in slight negative annual absorption. Surrey registered the most positive annual absorption since 2010. Burnaby, New Westminster Vacancy Absorption and the North Shore registered minimal positive absorption in 2015. The 12-month projection based on 10-year average absorption and known net absorption in new inventory Burnaby and Surrey submarkets also recorded elevated vacancy rates. continued on back page Metro Vancouver Office Vacancy Summary (Year-End 2015) INVENTORY HEAD LEASE SUBLEASE TOTAL VACANCY 12-MONTH DISTRICT (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY (SF) RATE (%) ABSORPTION (SF) Downtown 22,825,576 1,878,942 249,851 2,128,793 9.3% 1,101,041 Yaletown 2,029,244 82,797 0 82,797 4.1% -20,091 Broadway 5,849,095 256,718 6,366 263,084 4.5% -38,637 Burnaby 9,100,255 1,055,445 120,044 1,175,489 12.9% 32,637 Richmond 4,215,800 443,061 61,359 504,420 12% 186,883 Surrey 2,851,607 471,912 28,178 500,090 17.5% 36,751 New Westminster 1,688,572 253,682 0 253,682 15% 29,444 North Shore 1,372,098 82,276 18,304 89,028 7.3% 6,576 TOTAL 49,932,247 4,524,833 484,102 5,008,935 10% 1,334,604 Partnership.Performance. I 1 Downtown Positive annual absorption highest since 2005 Available sublease space continues to decrease with sublease vacancy accounting for 11.7% of overall vacancy, down from 12.9% a year earlier and significantly off the 19.9% recorded at year-end 2013. Much of the po- tential sublease space vacated by tenants moving into the new towers was backfilled and a significant increase in sublease space did not materialize. The Downtown market remains fairly balanced overall and while there was an increased number of large-block vacancies or availabilities, they remain limited in absolute numbers. With the space availability factor (SAF) at its lowest since mid-year 2012, vacancy is less likely to increase in the short term. Absorption Trends Positive annual absorption of more than 1.1 msf in 2015 marked the most annual absorption recorded since year-end 2005, which had marked the end of a four-year run during which time Downtown absorption was at Bentall Kennedy continues to work on the development permit least 2 msf annually. Positive absorption in 2015 also marked a reversal application for 1090 West Pender, a new 415,920-sf office tower. in a four-year slide towards negative absorption, starting in 2011 when absorption reached 373,425 sf before dropping to just 7,753 sf of positive Vacancy with Space Availability Factor (SAF) and Absorption: absorption in 2012 and then registering negative annual absorption in 2013 and 2014. Almost three-quarters of positive absorption in 2015 oc- 14.0% 1,200,000 1,101,041 curred within class AAA properties. Positive class A absorption of 172,762 12.0% 1,000,000 sf in 2015 marked the first positive annual absorption recorded in class A 2.8% 2.4% F 800,000 Downtown properties since 2012. A 10.0% S 3.4% e (sf) Recent Lease Deals – Year-End 2015 t / 3.4% 9.3% 9.2% 600,000 a e R t TENANT BUILDING SF 8.0% a 373,425 n R 400,000 o PwC (renewal) PwC Place 110,000 3.3% i y 6.8% t c 2.6% 6.0% p n r Absolute Software (renewal & expansion) Bentall 4 46,000 a 5.7% 200,000 o c s a Rocky Mountaineer 980 Howe Street 36,400 7,753 b 4.0% 134,990 V 3.9% 0 A 3.9% Kabam Inc. (sublease & head lease) 745 Thurlow Street 32,000 2.0% -200,000 Provincial Health Services Authority (renewal) 1380 Burrard Street 31,000 -270,560 -309,835 Boughton Law Corp. (renewal) Bentall 3 30,000 0.0% -400,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F The Profile 375 Water Street 30,000 Impark (renewal) The Station 25,000 Vacancy Absorption SAF* Space Availability Factor 12-month projection based on 10-year average absorption and known net Impark (renewal) 515 West Hastings Street 23,000 absorption in new inventory, and 10-year average SAF Copeman Healthcare Centre 808 Nelson Street 20,400 Stemcell Technologies Inc. Pender Place II 18,900 Vacancy Trends Hostway (renewal) Bentall 5 17,500 Downtown vacancy peaked at 9.8% at mid-year 2015 before tightening Lululemon Athletica (expansion) 1380 Burrard Street 17,300 to 9.3% at year-end 2015, which was up from 6.8% a year earlier. Despite Pacific North West LNG (expansion) Park Place 17,000 the delivery of more than 1.7 msf of new office space in 2015, vacancy GE Capital 1055 Dunsmuir Street 16,800 had already started to tighten by the end of the year as tenants occupied College of Massage Therapists of BC 1050 West Pender Street 15,700 the new inventory. Despite substantial absorption in class AAA assets, FullyManaged/ITG Software 128 West Pender Street 14,580 vacancy more than doubled to 10.5% from 5% a year earlier primarily due AXIM Royal Centre 14,200 to the delivery of new inventory that contained limited vacancy. Class Western Forest Products Royal Centre 14,200 A vacancy also climbed to 10.8% from 5.5% year-over-year as the flight IIROC (renewal) Royal Centre 13,800 to quality began to impact existing inventory. Class B and C vacancy CanWell Building Materials Group (sublease) Royal Centre 13,800 declined year-over-year, dropping to 7.5% and 7.9% at year-end 2015 Wavefront Wireless (renewal) Guinness Tower 12,400 from 8.3% and 9.6%, respectively. Vacancy is expected to remain stable – Simon Fraser University Harbour Centre 12,000 even decrease incrementally – through 2016 as minimal new inventory is JH Investments Inc. 745 Thurlow Street 12,000 scheduled to be delivered and significant occupancies still remain in the Agricultural Bank of China Telus Garden 12,000 new towers. Sandstorm Gold (renewal) Commerce Place 11,500 Even while tenants continue to search for space efficiencies to reduce oc- Pacific Future Energy 701 West Georgia Street 10,000 cupancy costs, there was solid deal activity with a good cross-section of new Accenture Telus Garden 10,000 leases, expansions, renewals and new tenants in the Downtown market. Esri Canada (renewal) 1130 West Pender Street 10,000 2 I Partnership.Performance. Downtown Vacancy elevated but market remains balanced Prelease Prelease Space Availability Factor (SAF) Developer Building SF SF % Completion SAF refers to head lease or sublease space that is being marketed but is 501 Robson Street Westbank/Telus (Telus Garden podium) 48,050 0 0% Q1 2016 not physically vacant, and new supply that is nearing completion and FiveTen Seymour, available for lease. The space availability factor, or SAF, slipped to 2.8% Serracan Properties 510 Seymour Street 68,000 (office) 66,600 98% Q3 2016 (650,435 sf) at year-end 2015, its lowest point since mid-year 2012 when Ormidale Block Century Group 151 West Hastings Street 23,600 (office) 0 0% Q4 2016 the indicator reached 2.6% (511,283 sf). Hence, the actual amount of Credit Suisse AG/ space currently being marketed (occupied and vacant) in the Downtown The Exchange, SwissReal Group 475 Howe Street 362,000 (office) 35,750 10% Q2 2017 core is 12.1% or approximately 2.8 msf.