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Home , Broken windows theory, Crime analysis, Punishment

The State of Broken Windows in New York Karim Kanji

Since the publication of Gary S. disorders lead to larger ones, and perhaps even Becker’s Nobel Prize winning essay “ to crime.’ There’s a continuum of disorder. And : An Economic Approach”, Obviously murder and are two vastly several economic scholars have not only different . But they are part of the same theorized the reasons for reduction in crime but continuum, and a climate that tolerates one is have published analysis’s on criminal behaviour more likely to tolerate the other (Corman and and criminal . Too often, their theories Mocan, pg. 2-3).” However, as with any other are later critiqued harshly by their colleagues celebrated theory come its sceptics. Many and lose repute. “Practically all the diverse economists argue that the successful decline in theories agree, however, that when other crime in can be explained by variables are held constant, an increase in a trends and that the declines can be accredited to person’s probability of or punishment other ’s and even socio-economic if convicted would generally decrease, perhaps variables that include the rate substantially, perhaps negligibly, the number of and perhaps the minimum wage. The object of offences he commits (Becker, pg. 9)”. This is this paper is to define the “broken windows” known as deterrence and many economists have theory and its application to policing, discuss it’s hypothesized on the best methods of optimal short comings, but most importantly, provide deterrence. One assertion that has found reason for its lack of functionality or validity celebrated acclaim within the United States is with its application to New York City crime the theory of “Broken Windows” written by rates versus other possible deterrence’s and James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling (1982), socio-economic variables. in which they argue that small-scale disorder in New York City’s success in reducing communities, that is left unattended to, becomes crime in the mid-1990’s has attracted a lot of the breeding ground for more serious crime. attention throughout the country. The From 1990 to 1999, rates fell by implication is that the feat is due to Mayor about 28% and rates fell by about Giuliani’s implementation of a , 26% within the United States. The more community based policing known as the “broken prevalent declines were seen in New York City windows” approach to crime prevention. with 56% and 65% respectively. The reasons for However, the “broken windows” is the declines are a highly debated topic among less of an application of economic models and many economists. In a press conference with more of a based on an understanding New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani on of nature. In its simplest sense, “broken February 24, 1998, he stated, “We have made windows” is about the physical decay of our the “Broken Windows” theory an integral part of communities. An environment in disrepair, litter our enforcement strategy. This theory says and graffiti strewn about, shows a lack of that the little things matter. As James Q. Wilson respect, and so will its occupants. Perception describes it, ‘If a factory or office window is maintains a large part in the prevention of crime. broken, passers-by observing it will conclude However, this does not only include physical that no one cares or no one is in charge. In time, perceptions but also social and behavioural. We a few will begin throwing rocks to break more are all to some extent defined by our windows. Soon all the windows will be broken, surroundings and if we live in a community that and now passers-by will think that, not only no places keen emphasis on self-reliance, one is in charge of the building, no one is in education, and the value of work, then these are charge of the street on which it faces. So, more the values most of us will internalize. If, and more citizens will abandon the street to however, we reside in communities where the those they assume prowl it. Thus ‘small common courtesies are no longer a custom or

1 valued, we tend not to value them either. If the crime. Both these factors have the affect of conditions that make a person or locality a more increasing (uj) and therefore decreasing (Oj). probable victim, or a more apparent cover for a However, because there are many influences that perpetrator are unchecked, crime will start small go into determining the multifaceted variable as offenders test the limits to acceptable (uj), it is either an increase in (pj) or (fj) that will behaviour. These antisocial acts will only decrease the utility of committing an offence and prompt substantial and more detrimental therefore reducing the number of offences, with behaviour as crime begins to flourish. Problems (pj) > (fj) (assuming people are risk preferrers). can be associated with youth hanging out in the The affect of the “Broken widows” theory as it streets, open-air drug dealing, and street applies to Becker’s model would therefore be prostitution and in many communities, the mob insignificant. mentality gets added into the mix. There is In a paper written in the National safety in numbers, but once a crowd gathers, it is Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working easier to flow with it than try moving against the Paper Series called Carrot, Sticks and Broken prevailing will. “Who is going to challenge Windows, the authors Hope Corman and Naci you? Who will challenge you when you sell Mocan find little evidence to support the broken drugs on the corner? Who will challenge you windows hypothesis. In their paper, the authors when you shoot someone for wearing the wrong measure the extent of the “broken windows” colour? Unchallenged behaviour will beget policing by using misdemeanour arrests as a worse behaviour (Frasier pg. 189).” Under such leading indicator while controlling for all other environments, criminal are passed with the variables. They describe misdemeanour rationale that they be enforced. The are offences as crimes pertaining to petit larceny, endowed with an immense level of discretion as assault in the third degree, prostitution, criminal to what laws they enforce, when, and with mischief, and theft of services. Crime and arrest whom. However, they must be careful as the data were obtained from the more infractions that go unforced for whatever Unit of the New York City Police Department reason, the greater is the perception of and the five FBI index crimes analyzed were corruption, incompetence or indifference. murder, assault, robbery, burglary and motor “Broken windows” is about rectifying minor vehicle theft. The results of their investigation transgressions in hopes of cutting off crime at of data for regressions spanning from 1974 to the grass root to establish a perception of civility 1999 found that misdemeanour arrests had a and liveability. This is accomplished by firmly significant negative affect on robberies and enforcing nuisance laws. Although this theory is vehicle theft, two of the five FBI index crimes more of a philosophy of sorts, it could be analyzed. Therefore the “broken windows” applied to economic theory. theory provided support for only two types of According to Becker, there exists a crimes. A 10% increase in misdemeanour function that relates a person’s number of arrests decreased motor vehicle thefts by 1.6 to offences (Oj) to his probability of conviction 2.1% and robberies by 2.5 to 3.2% (Corman and (pj), to the extent of his punishment if convicted Mocan, 2002). They found no evidence that (fj), and to other variables (uj) such as income, broken windows policing strategy had an affect willingness to commit an illegal act and the on the other crimes. Even for data gathered for frequency of nuisance arrests Oj = Oj (pj, fj, uj). only the decade of the 1990’s, the primary Any increase of these variable (pj), (fj) or (uj), reason for the drop in crimes was due will decrease the number of offences (Oj) jointly by felony arrests and misdemeanour committed by an offender. The implementation arrests. of “broken windows” would seemingly have its Furthermore, in a city like Chicago, greatest effect on the variable (uj), increasing the where declines in crime were not to the extent of frequency of nuisance arrests and decreasing New York City’s, despite the implementation of ones willingness to commit an illegal act similar strong and street through a change in the perception of a , many have questioned the community and the level of acceptance it has for validity of broken windows policing. University

2 of Chicago professor Robert Sampson and idea is that an increase in income and Stephen Raudenbush, professor of education at employment would decrease the utility of crime the , co-authored the and therefore reducing the amount of illegal acts study, “Systematic Social Observation of Public committed. However, in its application to Spaces: A New Look at Disorder in Urban Becker’s model, the affects of such changes Neighbourhoods (1999)” in which they took the would be similar to those of broken windows ingenuity of video recording approximately policing. Similarly, changes to ones income 23,816 face blocks covering 196 carefully would have an effect only on the variable (uj) selected neighbourhoods in Chicago in order to from the function Oj = Oj (pj, fj, uj), and although capture levels of physical deterioration and it could hypothetically decrease the number of social behaviour. The researchers related their offences (Oj), as explained before, there are so recordings to previously collected data and many factors that influence the variable (uj), that crime statistics and interviews of more than any effect would be insignificant to determining 3,500 residents. The evidence of physical the changes in (Oj) within the model. This disorder included cigarette butts in gutters, gang assertion is further justified as a 12.5% decline graffiti, abandoned cars, and drug paraphernalia. in unemployment generates about 2.2% decline Evidence of social disorder included adult in burglaries and a 1.8 percent decline in motor- loitering, public alcohol consumption, fighting vehicle thefts (Corman and Mocan, 2002). or hostile arguing between adults, solicitation for Similarly, increases in the real minimum wage prostitution, drug sales, and gang activity. The are found to only reduce robberies and murders research contends that crime has less to do with with any significance (Corman and Mocan, physical deterioration or social disorder, and 2002). This does show some evidence that more to do with poverty and low levels of economic conditions do affect crime rates resident cohesion. The study states, “…disorder (except assault), even though they are the not did not match the main theoretical thesis of always the same socio-economic variable. ‘broken windows’. Disorder is a moderate However, during the 1990’s, the extent of correlate of predatory crime, and it varies change in economic variables was not of the consistently with antecedent neighbourhood same magnitude as variables. characteristics. Once these characteristics were Their elasticities and actual changes were taken into account, however, the connection relatively small and did not generate a large between disorder and crime vanished in 4 out of enough impact to explain crime rate declines. 5 tests (Sampson and Raudenbush, pg. 637)”. The last variable to consider when Although the literature provides plausible trying to justify crime reduction is the effect of theoretical means for why policing of minor other deterrence variables of criminal justice. crimes may deter , its application to These are simply the factors that would affect Becker’s model, and empirical studies like the the probability of conviction and also includes two mentioned and others before them, have the extent punishment play in prevention. These provided no evidence to justify its rhetoric. are the factors that according to Becker justify One theory that sceptics of the “Broken changes in the levels of offences with any windows” theory attribute to New York City’s significance. As outlined earlier, these are the experience is the influence of socio-economic variables (pj), (fj) in the supply of offences variables. During the decade of the 1990’s, New function Oj = Oj (pj, fj, uj), with the effect of York City along with the United States had a changes in (pj) > (fj). That is, when there is a booming economy that saw unemployment change is the optimal number of offences, these decline 25% nationally and 39% between 1992 changes can only be accredited to either change and 1999 in New York City. Another economic in the probability of conviction or the changes in indicator to consider is the minimum wage. In punishment if convicted. Referring back to the New York, there were two nominal wage investigation of data presented by Corman and increases in 1990 and 1991, and two more in Mocan (2002) as I have throughout, the statistics 1996 and 1997. The real minimum wage do indeed provide evidence that the principles of throughout the decade rose by 12 percent. The Becker’s crime and punishment model, still hold

3 today. The study finds that only felony arrests philosophy or even psychological doctrine of deter all five crimes analyzed, which can be human nature whose affects on the supply of considered an increase in the probability of offences when applied to economic models conviction. Incapacitation does not play a prove to be rather insignificant, while in the decrease in crime, as although the number correlations to New York City crime rates, with of New York City residents in state correctional misdemeanour arrests as a leading indicator, are facilities does reduce all crimes but assault, the marginal at best. The hypothesis only provides a magnitude of influence is small. Although one theoretical means for crime prevention, would assume that the size of the police force possessing no substance in application. would have a significant affect on crime and the Similarly, the argument that New York perceived probability of conviction, it only had City’s decline in crime in the 1990’s is a result an impact on motor vehicles. Still, one of a prosperous economy holds little credence. percentage point increases in arrest rates for Using the unemployment rate and minimum murder, assault, burglary, robbery and motor wage as leading indicators, the affects such vehicle theft decreased crime in their respective socio-economic variables would have on the categories by 0.6%, 0.4%, 3.1%, 2.4% and 5.9% number of offences are secondary and respectively. This means that, for example, a correlations to New York City crime rates did 10% increase in the murder arrest rate entails a not generate a large enough impact to warrant or 4% decline in murder. Therefore, as predicted explain crime rate declines. by Becker’s model, deterrence factors other than Therefore, it is the contention of this socio-economic variables and misdemeanour essay that the reductions in crime are the affect arrests, that are encompassed in the variables (pj) of deterrence variables of criminal justice other and (fj), induce the most significant declines in than socio-economic variables or misdemeanour . It is also important to arrests. This is validated by the principles of note that during the time between 1990 and Becker’s economic model. Only felony arrests 1999, when New York City saw its highly deter all five crimes analyzed in New York City debated decline in crime, arrests per crime crime rates and the magnitudes of affects of increased (Corman and Mocan, 2002), which increases in arrests in the five FBI index crimes sustains the fact that felony arrests are the most are quite drastic on their respective categories. significant deterrent in crime. Between 1990 and 1999, when New York City Although it is highly publicized by New saw its highly debated decline in crime, arrests York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani as the per crime increased (Corman and Mocan, 2002), principle philosophy to its law enforcement which sustains the fact that felony arrests are the strategy and the key to the steady decline in most significant deterrent in crime. Law crime in New York City, the “Broken window” enforcement strategies should therefore focus on theory lacks economic merit. As stated before, felony arrests rather than misdemeanour arrests the “Broken windows” theory is more of a as suggested by the “Broken windows” theory.

4 Bibliography

Becker, Gary S. (1974). Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. In G. Becker & W. Landes (Eds.), Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment (pp.1-54). New York and London: Columbia University Press. Tinbergen, J., Jorgenson, D., Laffont, J., Persson, T. & Van Dijk, H. Contributions to Economic Analysis: Economics of Crime; Deterence and the Rational Offender. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Corman, H., & Mocan, N. (2002). Carrots, Sticks and Broken Windows. National Bureau of Economics: Working Papers Series, Paper 9061. http://papers.nber.org/tmp/62746-w9061.pdf Sampson, Robert J., & Raudenbush, Stephen W. (1999). Systematic Social Observation of Public Spaces: A New Look at Disorder in Urban Neighborhoods. American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 105, no. 3, 603-651. http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/soc/faculty/sampson/1996.6.pdf Sklyer, Robin. (Ed.) (2004). Fixing Broken Windows: An examination of the “Broken Windows” theory. http://www.ambiguous.org/robin/word/brokenwindows.html Wilson, James Q., & Kelling, George. (1982). Broken Windows. Atlantic Monthly, Vol. 249, no. 3, 29-38. Frasier, Craig., & Norton, William. (1999). Is the “Broken Windows” Theory and Effective Way to Reduce Crime? In Fuller, John R., & Hickey, Eric W (Eds.), Controversial Issues in (pp. 186-198). Massachusetts: Allyn and Bacon.

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