Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of UNCLASSIFIED

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario

Emergency Management Ontario Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services 2012

Emergency Management Ontario 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Acknowledgements...... 4 Scientific Content Reviewers ...... 4 Ontario Ministries ...... 4 External Methodology Reviewers ...... 4 Definitions...... 6 1.0 Introduction ...... 11 1.1 Purpose ...... 12 1.2 Scope ...... 13 1.3 Addressing Hazards through Policy, Programs and the Five Components of Emergency Management ...... 13 1.4 Structure ...... 13 2.0 Hazard Identification ...... 15 2.1 Natural Hazards ...... 15 2.2 Technological Hazards ...... 16 2.3 Human-Caused Hazards ...... 17 Hazard Narratives Natural Hazards ...... 17 Agricultural and Food Emergency ...... 17 Drinking Water Emergency ...... 23 Drought/Low Water ...... 25 Earthquake ...... 28 Erosion ...... 38 Extreme Temperatures ...... 40 Flood ...... 45 Fog ...... 51 Forest/Wildland Fire ...... 53 Freezing Rain ...... 57 Geomagnetic Storm ...... 60 Hail ...... 64 Human Health Emergency ...... 67 Hurricane ...... 70 Land Subsidence ...... 72 Landslide ...... 74 Lightning ...... 77 Natural Space Object Crash ...... 80 Snowstorm/Blizzard ...... 85 Tornado ...... 89 Windstorm ...... 93 Technological Hazards...... 96 Building/Structural Collapse ...... 97 Critical Infrastructure Failure ...... 99 Dam Failure ...... 101 Energy Supply Emergency ...... 103 Explosion/Fire ...... 108 Hazardous Materials Incident ...... 112

Emergency Management Ontario 2 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Human-Made Space Object Crash ...... 115 Mine Emergency ...... 117 Nuclear Facility Emergency ...... 122 Oil/Natural Gas Emergency ...... 125 Radiological Emergency ...... 131 Transportation Emergency ...... 135 Human-Caused Hazards ...... 141 Civil Disorder ...... 141 Cyber Attack ...... 143 Sabotage ...... 145 Special Event ...... 146 Terrorism/CBRNE ...... 149 War/International or Provincial/Territorial Emergency ...... 152 Risk Assessment...... 153 4.1 Requirements ...... 153 4.2 Literature Review ...... 153 4.3 Risk Equation ...... 158 4.4 Calculation ...... 158 Risk Analysis ...... 164 History of Hazards in Ontario ...... 164 Risk of Hazards in Ontario ...... 167 Next Steps ...... 172 Conclusion ...... 172 Appendix I - Vulnerable Populations ...... 173 Appendix II - The HIRA Development Process ...... 175 Appendix III - Risk Assessment Values ...... 176 References ...... 178

Emergency Management Ontario 3 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Acknowledgements Many individuals, ministries, and organizations contributed to the development of the Ontario Provincial Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. The list of identified hazards, the hazard narratives, and the methodology developed for the Provincial HIRA underwent an intensive review process that included Provincial Emergency Management Organizations, Ministry Emergency Management Coordinators, Risk Assessment Professionals and others. Emergency Management Ontario would like to thank the following people, ministries, and organizations for their contributions:

Scientific Content Reviewers • Dr. John Adams (Geological Survey of , Natural Resources Canada) • Dr. Jan Ayslworth (Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada) • Dr. Daniel N. Baker (University of Colorado) • Dr. Réjean Couture (Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada) • Dr. Chris Fogarty (Canadian Hurricane Centre) • Dr. Stephan Halchuk (Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada) • Dr. C. Emdad Haque (University of Manitoba) • Dr. Nicholas L. Johnson (National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)) • Joan Klaassen (Environment Canada) • Dr. Reid Kreutzwiser (University of Guelph) • Dr. David Martell (University of ) • Dr. Dan Shrubsole (University of Western Ontario) • Dr. David Sills (Environment Canada) • Dr. Seth Stein (Northwestern University) • Dr. Kristy Tiampo (University of Waterloo) • Dr. Terry Whiting (Manitoba Agriculture and Food, Veterinary Services Branch) Ontario Ministries • Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs; Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; Ministry of the Attorney General; Ministry of Children and Youth Services; Ministry of Community and Social Services; Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services; Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure; Ministry of the Environment; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Government Services; Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care; Ministry of Labour; Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing; Ministry of Natural Resources; Ministry of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry; Ministry of Tourism and Culture and the Ministry of Transportation. External Methodology Reviewers • Canadian Risk and Hazards Network • Canadian Standards Association • Defence Research and Development Canada, Centre for Security Science • Dr. Laurie Pearce (Royal Roads University) Emergency Management Ontario 4 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED • Emergency Management British Columbia • Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction • Natural Resources Canada • Nova Scotia Emergency Management Office • Emergency Measures Organization • • Yukon Emergency Measures Organization

Ministry of Community Safety Ministère de la Sécurité and Correctional Services communautaire et des Services correctionnels Emergency Management Ontario Gestion des situations d’urgence 77 Wellesley Street West Ontario Box 222 77, rue Wellesley Ouest Toronto ON M7A 1N3 C.P. 222 Office of the Assistant Deputy Minister Toronto (Ontario) M7A 1N3 and Chief Bureau de la sous-ministre adjointe et chef Telephone/Téléphone 416 314-3723 Facsimile/Télécopieur 416 314-3758 E-mail/Courriel [email protected]

January 25, 2012

Dear Colleagues:

A revised Ontario Provincial Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) Report, dated September 2011, is attached via an electronic link. This document is founded on a comprehensive study of the hazards that currently and/or historically confronted the Province of Ontario, as well as those that have the potential to occur.

Emergency Management Ontario has prepared this document with the assistance of many key stakeholders and scientific experts. The Ontario Provincial HIRA provides risk assessments for natural, technological, and man-made hazards in accordance with the definition of an emergency within the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act. This HIRA is a reference document for application at the provincial level; however, the process described herein can be adopted at ministry, municipal, community, or private sector levels.

Thirty-nine hazards are listed in this document and discussed under four main headings: Definition, Description, Provincial Risk Statement, and Case Study. An analysis of the risk of each hazard for the Province is provided at the Risk Analysis section.

Emergency Management Ontario 5 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Hazards are interlinked and dynamic, subject to change with unprecedented consequences, and may transcend provincial and national boundaries. Thus the HIRA Report will be updated routinely when new information about hazards that could impact Ontario (i.e. causes, frequency, and potential impact) becomes available. Updates will be widely distributed across Ontario to assist emergency managers when reviewing their HIRA documents.