Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario Emergency Management Ontario Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services 2012 Emergency Management Ontario 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Acknowledgements....................................................................................................... 4 Scientific Content Reviewers ................................................................................... 4 Ontario Ministries ....................................................................................................... 4 External Methodology Reviewers ........................................................................... 4 Definitions....................................................................................................................... 6 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 11 1.1 Purpose .............................................................................................................. 12 1.2 Scope .................................................................................................................. 13 1.3 Addressing Hazards through Policy, Programs and the Five Components of Emergency Management ................................................................................... 13 1.4 Structure ............................................................................................................. 13 2.0 Hazard Identification ............................................................................................ 15 2.1 Natural Hazards ................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Technological Hazards .................................................................................... 16 2.3 Human-Caused Hazards ................................................................................. 17 Hazard Narratives Natural Hazards ......................................................................... 17 Agricultural and Food Emergency ........................................................................ 17 Drinking Water Emergency .................................................................................... 23 Drought/Low Water ................................................................................................. 25 Earthquake ............................................................................................................... 28 Erosion ...................................................................................................................... 38 Extreme Temperatures ........................................................................................... 40 Flood .......................................................................................................................... 45 Fog ............................................................................................................................. 51 Forest/Wildland Fire ................................................................................................ 53 Freezing Rain ........................................................................................................... 57 Geomagnetic Storm ................................................................................................ 60 Hail ............................................................................................................................. 64 Human Health Emergency ..................................................................................... 67 Hurricane .................................................................................................................. 70 Land Subsidence ..................................................................................................... 72 Landslide ................................................................................................................... 74 Lightning .................................................................................................................... 77 Natural Space Object Crash .................................................................................. 80 Snowstorm/Blizzard ................................................................................................ 85 Tornado ..................................................................................................................... 89 Windstorm ................................................................................................................. 93 Technological Hazards............................................................................................... 96 Building/Structural Collapse ................................................................................... 97 Critical Infrastructure Failure .................................................................................. 99 Dam Failure ............................................................................................................ 101 Energy Supply Emergency .................................................................................. 103 Explosion/Fire ........................................................................................................ 108 Hazardous Materials Incident .............................................................................. 112 Emergency Management Ontario 2 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Human-Made Space Object Crash ..................................................................... 115 Mine Emergency .................................................................................................... 117 Nuclear Facility Emergency ................................................................................. 122 Oil/Natural Gas Emergency ................................................................................. 125 Radiological Emergency ....................................................................................... 131 Transportation Emergency ................................................................................... 135 Human-Caused Hazards ......................................................................................... 141 Civil Disorder .......................................................................................................... 141 Cyber Attack ........................................................................................................... 143 Sabotage ................................................................................................................. 145 Special Event ......................................................................................................... 146 Terrorism/CBRNE .................................................................................................. 149 War/International or Provincial/Territorial Emergency ..................................... 152 Risk Assessment....................................................................................................... 153 4.1 Requirements .................................................................................................. 153 4.2 Literature Review ............................................................................................ 153 4.3 Risk Equation .................................................................................................. 158 4.4 Calculation ....................................................................................................... 158 Risk Analysis ............................................................................................................. 164 History of Hazards in Ontario .............................................................................. 164 Risk of Hazards in Ontario ................................................................................... 167 Next Steps .................................................................................................................. 172 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 172 Appendix I - Vulnerable Populations ...................................................................... 173 Appendix II - The HIRA Development Process .................................................... 175 Appendix III - Risk Assessment Values ............................................................... 176 References ................................................................................................................. 178 Emergency Management Ontario 3 2012 Approved Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Province of Ontario UNCLASSIFIED Acknowledgements Many individuals, ministries, and organizations contributed to the development of the Ontario Provincial Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. The list of identified hazards, the hazard narratives, and the methodology developed for the Provincial HIRA underwent an intensive review process that included Provincial Emergency Management Organizations, Ministry Emergency Management Coordinators, Risk Assessment Professionals and others. Emergency Management Ontario would like to thank the following