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Rain on Snow cont. from page 221

spatial distribution of ROS events is still quite limited, it is possible to estimate how the characteristic climatic conditions that lead TRANSACTIONS to currently detected ROS events will change AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION in the future. Results from a fully coupled The Newspaper of the Earth and Space Sciences global climate model under the Intergovern- Editors mental Panel on (IPCC) A1B climate scenario [IPCC, 2000] suggest a sig- Anny Cazenave: Laboratoire d’Etudes en nificant increase in the area and frequency Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, of ROS events in the next 40 years [Rennert Toulouse, France; [email protected] et al., 2009] (Figure 2). John W. Geissman: Department of Earth and Planetary Science,University of New Mexico, ROS Research Challenges Albuquerque, USA; [email protected] The current maps and statistical analyses Wendy S. Gordon: Texas Parks and Wildlife of ROS events are based on limited detec- Department, Austin, USA; wendy.gordon@tpwd .state.tx.us tion by a surface weather network that is especially sparse in the north. The existing Manuel Grande: University of Wales, data lack direct evidence of some of the Aberystwyth; [email protected] largest known ROS events [e.g., Putkonen, Hassan Virji: START, Washington, D. C., USA; 1998; Rennert et al., 2009], which suggests [email protected] that many more events may have escaped detection. Currently, the greatest need is to Interim Editor in Chief create a database for the frequency and dis- tribution of past and present ROS events. Robert T. Van Hook: AGU, Washington, D.C., USA; eos_ [email protected] This could be produced by reprocessing the archived satellite microwave data with Fig. 2. Number of ROS events per winter (a) in the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) Forty- Year European Re- Analysis (ERA40) of the Global Atmosphere for the the aid of the recently developed detection Editorial Advisory Board period 1980–1999 and (b) for the same period using version three of the Community Climate method by Grenfell and Putkonen [2008] for System Model (CCSM3) general circulation model. ROS events are defined as a minimum of M. Lee Allison Earth and Space Sciences ROS events. Informatics 3 millimeters of rain falling on a minimum of 5 millimeters of snow water equivalent. (c) The One of the most immediate challenges difference between current and projected ROS frequencies per winter for the same thresholds Roni Avissar Global Environmental Change is to develop automated equipment that for the period 2040–2059 in the CCSM3 under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’ can reliably detect ROS events in the field A1B climate scenario [IPCC, 2000] and for the 1980–1999 period under ERA40. If a given area Roland Bürgmann Tectonophysics without becoming incapacitated or con- is forecasted to receive exactly the same amount of ROS in the future as it receives today, the founded by melting snow or freezing water. map shows white in that area; an area forecasted to receive more ROS in the future than today Noah S. Diffenbaugh Atmospheric Sciences Such measurement capability would pro- is shown in darker shades of gray, dependent on the magnitude of the increase; and areas fore- John E. Ebel Seismology vide much needed surface observations casted to receive less ROS in the future than today are shown in lighter shades of gray. The future against which the satellite record could be scenario indicates increased frequency of ROS events in much of northwestern North America, Michael N. Gooseff Hydrology compared. which is the habitat for several types of caribou. Decreases in ROS events shown are broadly due Major ROS events strongly affect the lives to projected decreases in snowpack in the model, not to a decrease in rain events. Reprinted with Stephen Macko Education and fates of wildlife, , and people permission from Rennert et al. [2009]. in northern snow- covered regions. Without Stefan Maus Geomagnetism and a clear understanding of the processes that Paleomagnetism Special Report of Working Group III of the Inter- Arctic, J. Clim., 22(9), 2302–2315, doi:10.1175/ lead to ROS events, and without knowledge governmental Panel on Climate Change, Working 2008JCLI2117.1. Jerry L. Miller Oceanography of past spatial distributions and frequencies Group III, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K. Russell, D. E., R. G. White, and C. J. Daniel (2005), of ROS events, it is impossible to chart the Grenfell, T. C., and J. Putkonen (2008), A method Peter Olson Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior Energetics of the Porcupine caribou herd: A com- impending changes in ROS characteristics for the detection of the severe rain- on- snow event puter simulation model, Tech. Rep. Ser. 431, Michael Poland Geodesy and gauge the implications for the Arctic on Banks Island, October 2003, using passive 64 pp., Can. Wildlife Serv., Ottawa, Ont., Canada. environment in general. The use of the tech- microwave remote sensing, Water Resour. Res., Paul R. Renne Volcanology, Geochemistry, niques described in this article, in conjunc- 44, W03425, doi:10.1029/ 2007WR005929. and Petrology tion with modern global climate modeling, Putkonen, J. K. (1998), Soil thermal properties Author Information offers the potential to anticipate and allevi- and heat transfer processes near Ny Alesund, Jeffery J. Roberts Mineral and Rock Physics northwestern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, Polar Res., Jaakko Putkonen, Department of Geology and ate the impact of ROS events on northern 17, 165- 179. Geological Engineering, University of North Dakota, John B. Rundle Nonlinear ungulates and and the people Putkonen, J. K., and G. Roe (2003), Rain on snow Grand Forks; E-mail: Jaakko . putkonen@ und . edu; who live there. events impact soil temperatures and affect ungu- Thomas C. Grenfell, Kevin Rennert, and Cecilia Bitz, Susan E. H. Sakimoto Planetary Sciences late survival, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(4), 1188, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of References doi:10.1029/ 2002GL016326. Washington, Seattle; Paul Jacobson, Department of Sarah L. Shafer Paleoceanography and Rennert, K., G. Roe, J. Putkonen, and C. Bitz Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Paleoclimatology Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2009), Soil thermal and ecological impacts Seattle; and Don Russell, Canadian Wildlife Service, (2000), Special Report on Emission Scenarios: A of rain on snow events in the circumpolar Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada David G. Sibeck Space Physics and Aeronomy

Maribeth Stolzenburg Atmospheric and The Siberian home of the Polaris Project, Space Electricity A Field Course in the Siberian Arctic: the Northeast Science Station, near Chers- 30 Days, 20 People, 3 Continents, 1 Barge kiy, is at 68ºN, just 80 kilometers south of the Jeffrey M. Welker Biogeosciences on the River. The sta- Staff tion has access to a wide variety of ecosys- As environmental change accelerates regard, the Siberian Arctic provides a criti- tem types, including mountainous uplands, Editorial: Barbara T. Richman, Executive Editor; boreal forests, , lakes, streams, rivers, Randy Showstack, Senior Writer; Mohi Kumar, in the Arctic, the international scientific cal, under- studied field laboratory to inves- Science Writer/Editor; Ernie Tretkoff, Writer/ community is struggling to keep up with tigate the ecological and biogeochemical Editor; Melissa Tribur, Production Coordinator; research efforts. To help with this, an inno- ramifications of climate change. Field Course cont. on next page Liz Castenson, Editor’s Assistant; Don Hendrick- vative project aims to create a new cohort son, Copy Editor; Faith A. Ishii, Hardcover Pro- duction Coordinator of Arctic researchers by uniting U.S. and Russian undergraduate students and early- Advertising: Rebecca Mesfin, Advertising Assistant; career scientists through the Polaris Project, Tel: +1-202-777-7536; E-mail: [email protected] a focused effort to investigate the impacts of Composition and Graphics: Valerie Bassett, Carole climate change in the Siberian Arctic. Saylor, and Nancy Sims, Electronic Graphics Specialists Funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation as part of the International ©2009 American Geophysical Union. Material Polar Year (IPY), the Polaris Project (http:// in this issue may be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permis- www . thepolarisproject .org) began in Janu- sion is also granted to use short quotes, figures, ary 2008 with Arctic- focused under graduate and tables for publication in scientific books courses at seven participating institutions and journals. For permission for any other uses, across the United States (Carleton College; contact the AGU Publications Office. Clark University; College of the Holy Cross; Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union St. Olaf College; University of Nevada, Reno; (ISSN 0096-3941) is published weekly by the and Western Washington University) and American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical (Yakutsk State University in ). Class postage paid at Washington, D. C., and at The students enrolled in these on- campus additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send courses were then eligible to apply for a address changes to Member Service Center, summer field program in Siberia, the first of 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Member Service Center 8:00 a.m.–6:00 which was launched in July 2008 as a group p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: of students and faculty traveled from the +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.:1-800-966-2481; United States to Moscow, then to Yakutsk, E-mail: [email protected]. Information on insti- and finally to Cherskiy in the Republic of tutional subscriptions is available from the Member Service Center. Use AGU’s Geophysical (Yakutia), Siberia (Figures 1 and 2a). Electronic Manuscript Submissions system to The unifying scientific theme of the submit a manuscript: http: //eos-submit.agu.org. Polaris Project field program is to study the Views expressed in this publication do not neces- transport and transformation of organic mat- sarily reflect official positions of the American ter and nutrients as they move with water Fig. 1. Sampling locations during the inaugural 2008 Polaris Project field course, which stretched Geophysical Union unless expressly stated. from terrestrial uplands to the Arctic Ocean. about 250 kilometers along the length of the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia (the largest A. F. Spilhaus, Jr., Founding Editor in Chief Project organizers were determined to stage Arctic river completely underlain by ). Although dissolved organic (DOC) con- the field program in the Siberian Arctic: The centrations, measured in milligrams of DOC per liter of water, are relatively low for the Kolyma http://www.agu.org/pubs/eos majority of the Arctic lies within Russia, yet River main stem, the high variability of DOC concentrations in nearby smaller streams and rivers Western scientists have a sparse history of stresses the importance of measuring a variety of watersheds to further the under standing of research there, potentially biasing scien- carbon cycling throughout the region. The hetero geneity of the Kolyma River basin enables these tists’ knowledge of the Arctic system. In this types of valuable investigations.

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pollution, we can in fact avoid the most Rick Piltz, director of the Government severe impacts we will be discussing today.” Accountability Project’s Climate Science NEWS Tom Karl, director of the NOAA’s National Watch, Washington, D. C., told Eos, “Elected Climatic Data Center, Asheville, N. C., and officials and their constituents ought to be cochair of the committee that pulled together influenced by the kind of material in this the report, said, “By comparing impacts that report.” He added, “I hope this whole [issue] Climate Change Now Apparent are projected to result from higher versus of the climate change consequences gets lower emissions of heat- trapping gases, our into the bloodstream of the public discourse and Unequivocal, New Report Warns report underscores the importance and real of the country.” economic value of reducing those emissions. Climate change is happening now in the ability to project climate change, expand- It shows that the choices made now will have A “Game Changer” United States and globally, and its impacts ing the capacity to provide relevant climate far- reaching consequences.” are expected to become increasingly severe change information, improving the under- Several scientists expressed optimism for more people and places unless the rate standing of how best to reduce the rate and Impact of the Report that emissions could be reduced in time of emissions of heat- trapping gases is sub- magnitude of climate change, and enhanc- to avoid the worst climate change predic- stantially reduced, according to a new ing understanding of how society can adapt Efforts related to climate change are mov- tions. Rosina Bierbaum, codirector of the report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in to climate change. ing forward on a number of fronts, including World Bank’s World Development Report the United States,” issued at a 16 June White in Congress (for example, through legisla- 2010, on leave as dean of the University of House briefing. Authoritative Assessment tion such as the “Waxman- Markey” Ameri- Michigan’s School of Natural Resources The 190- page report, a product of the can Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) and Environment, noted, “If the United interagency U.S. Global Change Research At the briefing, John Holdren, assistant and through upcoming United Nations States and the rest of the world don’t act Program (USGCRP), states that “global to the President for Science and Technol- Framework Convention on Climate Change together to address this global issue, we warming is unequivocal and primarily ogy and director of the White House Office ( UNFCCC) negotiations in Denmark. will be leaving generations with a much - induced.” Among other key find- of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), The report “is part of a larger process of hotter and much poorer planet.” Bierbaum ings of the report—which drew on USGCRP called the report “the most up- to- date, com- public and policy- maker education about told Eos that lowering U.S. emissions “is results and other studies including Intergov- prehensive, and authoritative assessment what the science is telling us, that one a Herculean task. We can do it, but we ernmental Panel on Climate Change reports of climate change impacts on the United has to hope will contribute to how people have to greatly invest in energy [research and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment— States.” Holdren said the report focuses on think about specific legislative proposals, and development], use all the tools we is that climate change will have numerous what is already happening and on what is and the need to move ahead,” Holdren have today, and develop the new tools for impacts on water resources, ecosystems, expected to happen in the future, under low- said, adding, “after many years of dithering tomorrow.” agriculture, coastal areas, human health, emission and high- emission scenarios. Hol- and delay.” The report is a “game changer,” accord- and other sectors. dren also said the report “is not a partisan Robert Corell, director of the Global ing to Lubchenco. “Much of the foot- These impacts include rising temperatures document,” noting that its development and Change Program at the H. John Heinz III dragging in addressing climate change is and sea level, increases in heavy down- review took place during both the Bush and Center for Science, Economics and the Envi- a reflection of the perception that climate pours, changing growing seasons, more fre- Obama administrations. ronment, Washington, D. C., and a member change is way down the road, it’s in the quent and intense extreme weather includ- Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the of the report’s review team, said in an inter- future, and it only affects remote parts of ing floods and droughts, and the continued National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- view with Eos that the report could help in the planet,” she said at the briefing. rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The report istration (NOAA), the lead federal agency communicating the issue to members of “The report does exactly what is notes that “global average temperature has involved with the report, said the bottom Congress. “It is absolutely essential that we needed at this time, which is to empha- risen by about 1.5ºF since 1900. By 2100, it is line of the report is that “human- induced cli- get good solid legislation out in time to influ- size the reality of climate change, the fact projected to rise another 2–11.5ºF. Increases mate change is a reality, not only in remote ence the Copenhagen process in December. that it is urgent, that we [need to] reduce at the lower end of this range are more likely polar regions and in small tropical islands, So the clock is really ticking and the super- heat- trapping pollution, and the fact that if global heat- trapping gas emissions are cut but everyplace around the country, in our tanker is really moving,” he said. it is happening everyplace. That is the substantially. If emissions continue to rise at own back yards. It’s happening. It’s happen- Anthony Janetos, director of the Joint most important information for decision- or near current rates, temperature increases ing now. It’s not just a problem for the future. Global Change Research Institute at the makers to hear right now,” Lubchenco are more likely to be near the upper end of We are beginning to see its impacts in our Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, told Eos, adding that the report also the range.” daily lives. More than that, are College Park, Md., a report coauthor, told could be useful in international negotia- The report also focuses on the need for responsible for the changes that we are see- Eos that it is hard to predict what kind of tions. “The sooner we focus on getting mitigation and adaptation measures as nec- ing, and our actions now will determine the political or policy impact a report like this our house in order, the better we will be essary elements of an effective response extent of future change and the severity of will have. “One of the messages that we prepared to be players on the interna- strategy. “Future climate change and its the impacts.” are trying to make sure people understand tional scene.” impacts depend on choices made today,” the Lubchenco also said that “it is not too is that stakes are high,” he said. “This For more information, visit http:// www report states. The report includes a series late to act. Decisions made now will deter- really is not an issue that you can think . globalchange .gov/ usimpacts. of recommendations for advancing climate mine whether we get big changes or small about in terms of, ‘oh, these things might science, including increasing the understand- changes.” She added, “If we take immediate happen in 50 years.’ Things are happening ing of climate change impacts, refining the and sustained action to reduce heat- trapping now.” —RANDY SHOWSTACK, Staff Writer

Field Course cont. from page 222 an estuary, and the coastal Arctic Ocean (Fig- controls of productivity as well as contin- ures 1 and 2)—few Arctic field stations pro- ued surveys of organic matter and nutri- vide access to such a diverse range of ecosys- ent fluxes across environmental gradients. tems. While at the station, the Polaris Project Near–real time reports will be posted on the is housed on a 30- meter barge (Figure 2e), interactive project Web site at http:// www which can be towed hundreds of kilometers . thepolarisproject .org. along the Kolyma River during multiple- day Although the IPY is coming to a close, the excursions. Polaris Project will continue at least through Several research projects were initi- 2010 and hopefully longer. The Polaris Proj- ated during the inaugural 2008 field course ect already provides undergraduate students including a survey of organic matter and and early- career scientists the educational nutrient concentrations in lake and stream background, field research experience, and ecosystems (e.g., Figure 1), an examination international connections that are essen- of the impacts of permafrost degradation tial for successful implementation of future on aquatic biogeochemistry, and the use of research projects in this vast yet under- dendrochronology and remote sensing to studied region of the Arctic. To quote an assess lake drainage rates. These prelimi- undergraduate participant, “I learned more nary efforts resulted in two student- led pre- during my month in Siberia than in all my sentations at the 2008 AGU Fall Meeting in science classes combined.” San Francisco, Calif. —R. MAX HOLMES, Woods Hole Research Center, The next Polaris Project field expedition Woods Hole, Mass.; E- mail: rmholmes@whrc .org; begins on 2 July 2009. Planned activities KAREN E. FREY, Clark University, Worcester, Mass.; include experimental nutrient additions to and SERGEY ZIMOV, Northeast Science Station, stream and lake ecosystems to investigate Cherskiy, Russia

Fig. 2. The Northeast Science Station provides an ideal outdoor research laboratory for studies involving hydrological and biogeochemical impacts of Arctic climate change, owing to its diverse range of environments throughout the region. (a) Aerial view of the Northeast Science Station. (b) Lakes are ubiquitous across the landscape (yet biogeochemically diverse, as apparent in their vast array of colors). (c) A view of the topographic variability throughout the region, much of which is covered by larch- dominated boreal forest. (d) A day trip north of Cherskiy brings one north of the tree line into the tundra region. (e) The barge that transported the science team to most of their sampling locations during the field expedition. (f) The Polaris Project team (consist- ing of both U.S. and Russian undergraduate students and project scientists).

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