The Relationship Between the Typhoon Storm in Fujian and Circulation Circumstances
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Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans
3rd International Symposium Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans March 21–27, 2015 Santos, Brazil Table of Contents Welcome � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � v Organizers and Sponsors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �vi Notes for Guidance � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �ix Symposium Timetable � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � x List of Sessions and Workshops � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � xiii Floor Plans � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �xiv Detailed Schedules � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 Abstracts - Oral Presentations Keynote � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �77 Plenary Talks � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �79 Theme Session S1 Role of advection and mixing in -
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon
Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitatively Precipitation in Taiwan Ling-Feng Hsiao1, Delia Yen-Chu Chen1, Ming-Jen Yang1, 2, Chin-Cheng Tsai1, Chieh-Ju Wang1, Lung-Yao Chang1, 3, Hung-Chi Kuo1, 3, Lei Feng1, Cheng-Shang Lee1, 3 1Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, NARL, Taipei 2Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Chung-Li 3Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei ABSTRACT The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Therefore the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) during typhoon period is highly needed for disaster preparedness and emergency evacuation operation in Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) started the typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast ensemble forecast experiment in 2010. The ensemble QPF experiment included 20 members. The ensemble members include various models (ARW-WRF, MM5 and CreSS models) and consider different setups in the model initial perturbations, data assimilation processes and model physics. Results show that the ensemble mean provides valuable information on typhoon track forecast and quantitative precipitation forecasts around Taiwan. For example, the ensemble mean track captured the sharp northward turning when Typhoon Megi (2010) moved westward to the South China Sea. The model rainfall also continued showing that the total rainfall at the northeastern Taiwan would exceed 1,000 mm, before the heavy rainfall occurred. Track forecasts for 21 typhoons in 2011 showed that the ensemble forecast has a comparable skill to those of operational centers and has better performance than a deterministic prediction. With an accurate track forecast for Typhoon Nanmadol, the ability for the model to predict rainfall distribution is significantly improved. -
Recent Advances in Research on Tropical Cyclogenesis
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9 (2020) 87e105 www.keaipublishing.com/tcrr Recent advances in research on tropical cyclogenesis Brian H. Tang a,*, Juan Fang b, Alicia Bentley a,y, Gerard Kilroy c, Masuo Nakano d, Myung-Sook Park e, V.P.M. Rajasree f, Zhuo Wang g, Allison A. Wing h, Liguang Wu i a University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, USA b Nanjing University, Nanjing, China c Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany d Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan e Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea f Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics Research, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK g University of Illinois, Urbana, USA h Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA i Fudan University, Shanghai, China Available online 7 May 2020 Abstract This review article summarizes recent (2014e2019) advances in our understanding of tropical cyclogenesis, stemming from activities at the ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. Tropical cyclogenesis involves the interaction of dynamic and thermodynamic processes at multiple spatio-temporal scales. Studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by external processes, such as intraseasonal oscillations, monsoon circulations, the intertropical convergence zone, and midlatitude troughs and cutoff lows. Addi- tionally, studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by internal processes, such as the organization of deep convection; the evolution of the “pouch” structure; the role of friction; the development of the moist, warm core; the importance of surface fluxes; and the role of the mid-level vortex. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)
atmosphere Article The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010) Xingliang Guo ID and Wei Zhong * Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 October 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection. Keywords: spectral nudging; typhoon track; environmental factors 1. Introduction Although the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks has been effectively improved in recent years through observations, numerical simulations, data assimilation and studies of the physical mechanisms affecting typhoon movement [1], the accurate prediction of abnormal typhoon tracks, including their continuous changes and abrupt deflection, is still not possible [2]. -
Science Discussion Started: 22 October 2018 C Author(S) 2018
Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Field Investigations of Coastal Sea Surface Temperature Drop 2 after Typhoon Passages 3 Dong-Jiing Doong [1]* Jen-Ping Peng [2] Alexander V. Babanin [3] 4 [1] Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 5 Taiwan 6 [2] Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW), Rostock, Germany 7 [3] Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Melbourne School of Engineering, University of 8 Melbourne, Australia 9 ---- 10 *Corresponding author: 11 Dong-Jiing Doong 12 Email: [email protected] 13 Tel: +886 6 2757575 ext 63253 14 Add: 1, University Rd., Tainan 70101, Taiwan 15 Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University 16 -1 Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Abstract 2 Sea surface temperature (SST) variability affects marine ecosystems, fisheries, ocean primary 3 productivity, and human activities and is the primary influence on typhoon intensity. SST drops 4 of a few degrees in the open ocean after typhoon passages have been widely documented; 5 however, few studies have focused on coastal SST variability. The purpose of this study is to 6 determine typhoon-induced SST drops in the near-coastal area (within 1 km of the coast) and 7 understand the possible mechanism. -
Scale and Spatial Distribution Assessment of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in a Catchment with Mountain Roads
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 687–708, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-687-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Scale and spatial distribution assessment of rainfall-induced landslides in a catchment with mountain roads Chih-Ming Tseng1, Yie-Ruey Chen1, and Szu-Mi Wu2 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan, 71101, Taiwan (ROC) 2Chen-Du Construction Limited, Taoyuan, 33059, Taiwan (ROC) Correspondence: Chih-Ming Tseng ([email protected]) Received: 14 July 2017 – Discussion started: 4 October 2017 Revised: 27 December 2017 – Accepted: 22 January 2018 – Published: 2 March 2018 Abstract. This study focused on landslides in a catchment Landslide susceptibility can be evaluated by analysing the with mountain roads that were caused by Nanmadol (2011) relationships between landslides and various factors that are and Kong-rey (2013) typhoons. Image interpretation tech- responsible for the occurrence of landslides (Brabb, 1984; niques were employed to for satellite images captured before Guzzetti et al., 1999, 2005). In general, the factors that af- and after the typhoons to derive the surface changes. A mul- fect landslides include predisposing factors (e.g. geology, to- tivariate hazard evaluation method was adopted to establish pography, and hydrology) and triggering factors (e.g. rainfall, a landslide susceptibility assessment model. The evaluation earthquakes, and anthropogenic factors) (Chen et al., 2013a, of landslide locations and relationship between landslide and b; Chue et al., 2015). Geological factors include lithological predisposing factors is preparatory for assessing and map- factors, structural conditions, and soil thickness; topograph- ping landslide susceptibility. -
The Eyewall-Penetration Reconnaissance Observation of Typhoon Longwang (2005) with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Aerosonde
JANUARY 2008 L I N A N D L E E 15 The Eyewall-Penetration Reconnaissance Observation of Typhoon Longwang (2005) with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Aerosonde PO-HSIUNG LIN AND CHENG-SHANG LEE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 18 September 2006, in final form 18 April 2007) ABSTRACT In this paper, a successful eye-penetration reconnaissance flight by an unmanned aerial vehicle, Aerosonde, into Typhoon Longwang (2005) and the preliminary analyses of the collected data are pre- sented. The 10-h flight is diagnosed through four flight legs. The wind field measured along flight leg 1 provides the tangential and radial wind profiles from the outer perimeter into the eye of the typhoon at the 700-hPa layer. A vertical sounding was taken in the eye along flight leg 2 and the derived surface pressure in the eyewall is close to the estimates made by the local weather agencies. Along flight leg 3, the strongest winds during the whole flight mission were measured. These in situ wind measurements by Aerosonde are consistent with the winds observed by the Hua-lien Doppler weather radar. The maximum 10-min (1 min) wind along flight leg 3 when Aerosonde was flying around the eyewall region is 58.6 m sϪ1 (62 m sϪ1). The maximum sustained surface wind derived from this maximum wind speed is also close to the estimates made by the local weather agencies. In conclusion, this successful mission demonstrates that the Aerosonde with a trained crew can play a role in severe weather monitoring and the Aerosonde’s measurement can serve as an independent check for Doppler radar wind retrieval. -
Layoutvorgaben Für Die Erstellung Der Beiträge
Analysis of the Influence of Joint Operation of Shihmen and Feitsui Reservoirs on Downstream Flood Peaks for Flood Control Chung-Min Tseng, Ming-Chang Shieh, Chao-Pin Yeh, Jun-Pin Chow, Wen Sen Lee Abstract The Tamsui River Basin covers the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area, which is the most important economic center in Taiwan. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir are located in the upper reaches of Tamsui River, play an important role for regulate the water use and flood control in the basin. During flood events, release of floodwaters from Shihmen and Feitsui reservoirs is necessary due to excessive inflows. Since Tamsui River is a tidal river, downstream tide changes need to be considered to avoid disastrous water levels caused by released discharges and simultaneous tidal water flows into the estuary. The joint operation of the two reservoirs has an absolute impact on the safety of the river downstream. In this study, we took real typhoon events as examples, based on actual rainfalls, reservoir release and tidal changes, used a 1-D numerical river flow model to simulate the unsteady river dynamics of Tamsui River. The goal was to understand the interaction between the two reservoirs’ joint operation and the tide. The impact on water levels and flows in Tamsui River is used do draw conclusions for future flood control operations. Keywords: Joint operation for flood control, tidal river, disastrous water levels, numerical river model 1 General Introduction 1.1 Basin Overview The Tamsui River Basin is located in the northern part of Taiwan, has a length of about 159 kilometers and a drainage area of about 2,726 square kilometers. -
The Eyewall-Penetration Reconnaissance Observation of Typhoon Longwang (2005) with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Aerosonde
JANUARY 2008 L I N A N D L E E 15 The Eyewall-Penetration Reconnaissance Observation of Typhoon Longwang (2005) with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Aerosonde PO-HSIUNG LIN AND CHENG-SHANG LEE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 18 September 2006, in final form 18 April 2007) ABSTRACT In this paper, a successful eye-penetration reconnaissance flight by an unmanned aerial vehicle, Aerosonde, into Typhoon Longwang (2005) and the preliminary analyses of the collected data are pre- sented. The 10-h flight is diagnosed through four flight legs. The wind field measured along flight leg 1 provides the tangential and radial wind profiles from the outer perimeter into the eye of the typhoon at the 700-hPa layer. A vertical sounding was taken in the eye along flight leg 2 and the derived surface pressure in the eyewall is close to the estimates made by the local weather agencies. Along flight leg 3, the strongest winds during the whole flight mission were measured. These in situ wind measurements by Aerosonde are consistent with the winds observed by the Hua-lien Doppler weather radar. The maximum 10-min (1 min) wind along flight leg 3 when Aerosonde was flying around the eyewall region is 58.6 m sϪ1 (62 m sϪ1). The maximum sustained surface wind derived from this maximum wind speed is also close to the estimates made by the local weather agencies. In conclusion, this successful mission demonstrates that the Aerosonde with a trained crew can play a role in severe weather monitoring and the Aerosonde’s measurement can serve as an independent check for Doppler radar wind retrieval. -
The Effect of Warm Water and Its Weak Negative Feedback on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017)
Vol.26 No.4 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Dec 2020 Article ID: 1006-8775(2020) 04-0402-15 The Effect of Warm Water and Its Weak Negative Feedback on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) HUO Zi-mo (霍子墨), DUAN Yi-hong (端义宏), LIU Xin (刘 欣) (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 China) Abstract: Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by 35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. -
Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Rossby Wave Energy Dispersion of a Preexisting Typhoon
VOLUME 63 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES MAY 2006 Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Rossby Wave Energy Dispersion of a Preexisting Typhoon. Part I: Satellite Data Analyses* TIM LI AND BING FU Department of Meteorology, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii (Manuscript submitted 20 September 2004, in final form 7 June 2005) ABSTRACT The structure and evolution characteristics of Rossby wave trains induced by tropical cyclone (TC) energy dispersion are revealed based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Among 34 cyclogenesis cases analyzed in the western North Pacific during 2000–01 typhoon seasons, six cases are associated with the Rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting TC. The wave trains are oriented in a northwest–southeast direction, with alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity circulation. A typical wavelength of the wave train is about 2500 km. The TC genesis is observed in the cyclonic circulation region of the wave train, possibly through a scale contraction process. The satellite data analyses reveal that not all TCs have a Rossby wave train in their wakes. The occur- rence of the Rossby wave train depends to a certain extent on the TC intensity and the background flow. Whether or not a Rossby wave train can finally lead to cyclogenesis depends on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions related to both the change of the seasonal mean state and the phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Stronger low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity, weaker vertical shear, and greater midtropospheric moisture are among the favorable large-scale conditions.