Settlement Monitor

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Settlement Monitor SETTLEMENT MONITOR Edited by Geoffrey Aronson This section covers items—reprinted articles, statistics, and maps—pertaining to Israeli settlement activities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. Unless otherwise stated, the items have been written by Geoffrey Aronson for this section or drawn from material written by him for Report on Israeli Settlement in the Occupied Territories (hereinafter Settlement Report), a Washington-based bimonthly newsletter published by the Foundation for Middle East Peace. JPS is grateful to the foundation for permission to draw on its material. The Settlement Freeze and its Antecedents Settlement Freeze Redux (excerpts) . 174 AFocusonEastJerusalem The Very Eye of the Storm, by Akiva Eldar (excerpts) . 178 Turkish Documents Prove Arabs Own East Jerusalem Building, by Nir Hasson (excerpts)................................... 181 The Planning Crisis in East Jerusalem: Understanding the Phenomenon of “Illegal” Construction, by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (excerpts) . 181 THE SETTLEMENT FREEZE AND ITS ural growth” of settlements. Settlements ANTECEDENTS must be evacuated as part of a final status plan that establishes Palestinian sovereignty SETTLEMENT FREEZE REDUX (EXCERPTS) and enhances Israeli security, but to do so will require a degree of commitment— From Settlement Report, May–June not to a freeze in settlements but to their 2009. removal—that neither Israel nor the inter- Israel’s ever-expanding network of civil- national community has yet been able or ian settlements in the occupied territories willing to muster. is viewed by its partisans and opponents The administration of Pres. Barack alike as the most significant obstacle to the Obama is considering resurrecting the freeze creation of a viable, sovereign Palestinian idea as a key element of its policy. Israeli state. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sig- Mahmud Abbas is conditioning a renewal naled his opposition, noting that “if Israelis of discussions with Israel on an Israeli com- cannot build houses in the West Bank, Pales- mitment to freeze all settlement, echoing a tinians do not need to build either.” demand originally made in 1992 during the U.S. officials believe that despite the pre-Oslo Washington talks.... failure of all previous attempts to freeze Yet, for more than three decades, on- settlements, the idea still has merit. But again off-again promotion of a settlement achieving the goal of peace and security freeze by the United States has failed to for both Israelis and Palestinians requires a slow settlement expansion, thereby under- strategy rooted in historical experience and mining the credibility of U.S. diplomacy. the vital requirements of both peoples. A More often than not, attempts to establish settlement freeze falls short of this standard. a freeze resulted in U.S. support for settle- Settlement evacuation, not a freeze, is a ment expansion, most notably the Clinton more credible and necessary objective, more administration’s endorsement of the “nat- closely attuned to the essential long-term Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No. 4 (Summer 2009), pp. 174–184, ISSN 0377-919X, electronic ISSN 1533-8614. C ! 2009 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2009.XXXVIII.4.174. SETTLEMENT MONITOR 175 interests of both parties and firmly rooted tion of Menachem Begin in 1977, there was in past Israeli practice, most recently in a legitimate basis to view a cessation of set- Gaza. Placing a freeze at the center of a U.S. tlement as a confidence-building measure. diplomatic effort that calls for confidence- In a letter to Pres. Jimmy Carter delivered building measures from all parties invites after the September 1977 Camp David sum- failure and risks eroding the credibility of mit, Begin offered a three-month morato- a much-anticipated U.S. effort to end the rium on establishing new settlements rather conflict. The only context in which a freeze than the longer moratorium preferred by could be implemented is as a consequence of Washington. Restrictions on the expansion an Israeli decision to remove settlements and of existing settlements had been dropped at the Israeli army from occupied territory. The Israel’s insistence. On the face of it, Begin’s history of the last forty years suggests that agreement to halt new settlement creation if Israel makes such a momentous decision, for even three months was a bold and sur- freezing settlements becomes moot. prising concession. Yet, and not for the last time, Israel’s commitment to a moratorium Evacuation, Not a Freeze did not constrain settlement but rather es- It is important to recognize that, as Hay- tablished categories of expansion implicitly dar ‘Abd al-Shafi warned in 1992, not only endorsed by Washington. The temporary was the credibility of the Oslo process un- moratorium on new settlements notwith- dermined by the working assumption of the standing, the Begin government continued United States and Israel that peace and set- to “thicken” and “strengthen” settlements, tlement expansion were compatible, but it at times establishing new sites kilometers also suffered because Israel refused to meet away from existing colonies during the even modest U.S. benchmarks regarding three-month period. Carter administration settlement expansion and removal of new officials were frustrated by Israel’s actions, settlements, and it received no penalty for but acquiesced. its failure to do so. In contrast to Begin’s agreement to the The re-creation of a diplomatic process partial, temporary, and ineffective restric- based in part on an Israeli commitment to a tions on Israeli settlement actions in the freeze would be undermined if Israel failed West Bank and Gaza—East Jerusalem was to comply. Moreover, Israelis may well be- excluded implicitly—the peace treaty with lieve that a renewed U.S. initiative that cen- Egypt signified a strategic Israeli decision ters on a freeze can, like all previous efforts, to trade territory for new security mecha- be exploited to consolidate settlements and nisms that required Israel’s evacuation of the occupation rather than progress toward all settlements in territory returned to Egyp- an agreement requiring settlement evacua- tian sovereignty. Only in the context of an tion. Were Israel to engage Washington in Israeli decision to withdraw from Egyptian negotiations on the parameters of a freeze, territory was it possible for Israel, through it could signify a prescription for stalemate its complete evacuation of the Sinai Penin- rather than an expression of goodwill. sula, to adopt and enforce an effective halt to settlement expansion. Indeed Israeli set- The Begin-Carter Settlement Freeze tlement activity in Sinai increased in the The freeze idea was born at a time when months before evacuation until the IDF settlement expansion was in its infancy. Is- forcibly removed the Sinai settlers. Set- rael had occupied the West Bank for hardly tlement activity undertaken within the a decade, and with the exception of East strategic context of imminent evacuation Jerusalem, settlements claimed only small proved to be irrelevant. numbers of inhabitants; most had yet to shed an air of impermanence. There were less Baker-Bush I than 5,000 Israelis living in less than 30 West The emigration of Jews to Israel after Bank settlements. The settler population in the implosion of the Soviet Union, and the East Jerusalem numbered 50,000. Adminis- Madrid diplomatic process that followed tration of all settlement-related activities in the 1991 U.S. victory in the Gulf War, the West Bank and Gaza Strip was largely returned the issue of a settlement freeze controlled by the Israel Defense Forces to the U.S.-Israeli diplomatic agenda. The (IDF), and the integration of settlements and freeze idea was raised by Pres. George H. settlers into the routine bureaucratic life W. Bush without success in the context of of Israel’s civilian ministries was still some a U.S. agreement to provide loan guaran- years off. In this era, marked by the elec- tees to Israel during the 1990–92 period. 176 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES The idea was also prominent among the Rabin Builds confidence-building measures sought by In the wake of the 1992 election of Palestinians before and after the Madrid Yitzhak Rabin, the Bush administration’s conference. In neither context was the con- demands for a settlement freeze were trans- cept incorporated into subsequent agree- formed into a two-tiered and somewhat ments, nor did its appearance as an issue contradictory policy of exacting decreasing on the negotiating and bilateral Israeli-U.S. and largely illusory financial penalties for agenda prove an effective instrument for for- settlement expansion—associated with the mally or informally constraining settlement provision of $10 billion in loan guarantees— expansion. while formally acknowledging, for the first The Bush administration called on Israel time, Israel’s right to expand settlements, to stop construction in new or existing according to the undefined requirements of settlements with increasing frequency after their “natural growth.” the beginning of Secretary of State James In the wake of his August 1992 agreement Baker’s diplomatic initiative in March 1991. with President Bush to expand settlements Presaging ideas currently being considered according to this standard, Rabin sought to by the Obama administration, Baker at one dispel the impression that the agreement point suggested that a settlement freeze with Washington meant that Israel had im- would be reciprocated by a cessation of the posed a settlement “freeze”: Arab economic boycott of Israel. During Look, I do not know what you mean when you say the October 1991 Madrid conference, Baker settlement freeze, when we are talking of the contin- broadened the proposal to include an end ued construction of 11,000 units in the territories.
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