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1/St Bet Wager Guide Belmont Park Jun20 Belmont Stakes 1/ST BET WAGER GUIDE BELMONT STAKES JUN20 BELMONT PARK WELCOME TO THE 1/ST BELMONT STAKES WAGER GUIDE Fellow Racing Fan, Even if 2020 won’t go down as a banner year, the Triple Crown perseveres. To that point, appropriate adjustments have been made. The classics’ batting order has changed. Leading off on June 20 will be the Belmont Stakes. Hitting in the two-hole on September 5 will be the Kentucky Derby. And rounding out the series will be Preakness on October 3. As the leadoff hitter, the Belmont Stakes has been asked to shorten its swing, get on base, and set the table for Derby and Preakness. Therefore, this year, the Belmont Stakes will be contested at one mile and one-eighth instead of its traditional, swing-from-the-heels distance of one mile and one-half. Additionally, because of Belmont’s mile and one-half track configuration, the mile and one-eighth distance will be completed around one turn. Less distance around one bend, instead of two, should be A-OK with anticipated favorite Tiz the Law’s connections. One less turn ought to help keep him in the clear. 1/ST is proud to produce this Free Belmont Stakes Wager Guide. Inside you’ll find just about everything you need to handicap and bet the Belmont Stakes with confidence. We’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race and to provide picks, analysis, value plays and wagering strategies. The 1/ST Belmont Stakes Wager Guide also includes our exclusive XBTV Workout Analysis, useful Belmont Stats & Trends and much more. An enhanced and updated Belmont Stakes Wager Guide, including post-draw thoughts and analysis from NBC Sports analyst Eddie Olczyk and famed broadcaster Brent Musburger, will be available online at XPRESSBET.COM and inside the 1/ST BET APP starting Friday, June 19. We wish you an entertaining and profitable 2020 Belmont Stakes and look forward to serving as your online betting provider for the Belmont and into the future. Sincerely, The 1/ST Team 1ST.COM/BET 2 MEET THE BELMONT CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD TIZ THE LAW: In a world where nearly everything has been turned upside down, 2020 has gone well for Belmont favorite Tiz the Law. Following three races at age two, the once-beaten colt has made a pair of starts for trainer Barclay Tagg this year and couldn’t have looked better while winning both races at Gulfstream Park—the Grade 3 Holy Bull, by three lengths, and the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby by more than four lengths. You’re forgiven if you feel as if the Florida Derby was contested about a year ago. Actually, it was March 28, and the effort perfectly poised Tiz the Law to bloom on the first Saturday in May. Unfortunately, the Kentucky Derby is postponed until September. No matter. Since the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law has trained forwardly for his connections as they anxiously await the Belmont Stakes, where this colt will start as a deserving and prohibitive favorite. BASIN: This son of Liam’s Map showed promise at age two while winning two of three starts—a maiden and the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. In 2020, he has made three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, all stakes at Oaklawn Park with mixed reviews. Off a layoff from September, he finished third in March’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, more than seven lengths behind Nadal and Excession. Next out, in April, he was a disappointing fourth in the ungraded Oaklawn Stakes. The skies brightened a bit for him in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby when he was second, beaten more than seven lengths by the streaking, but since-sidelined, Charlatan. Basin displayed a bit more speed in his last race and probably will be asked to stalk the early Belmont pace. TAP IT TO WIN: If you’re looking for the ‘now’ horse in the Belmont Stakes, this guy could fit the bill. He won an allowance race at Belmont Park on June 4 going wire-to-wire by five lengths. He’ll bounce back to the races in just 16 days! That’s a very quick turnaround for a modern stakes horse. This son of Tapit raced four times as a juvenile and went to the sidelines off two poor performances. He returned a seemingly new boy in 2020, with a pair of allowance wins at Gulfstream and Belmont—at six furlongs and at one mile and one-sixteenth. Can he successfully strike while the iron is hot and step up to act with the big boys? Maybe. He’s got some speed in a race that lacks that quality, so look for him to set the early Belmont pace. SOLE VOLANTE: He was unbeaten in two races last year and has won four of six lifetime starts. His major claim to fame is victory in the 2020 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, followed by a second in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and an old-school allowance victory at Gulfstream 10 days before the Belmont Stakes. His running style ought to place him well back early in the Belmont and he could be forced wide on the turn as he revs-up for a clear finish. This son of Karonkatie has displayed talent on occasion, but he will need a contested early pace to be successful in the most challenging test of his budding career. 1ST.COM/BET 3 MEET THE BELMONT CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD MODERNIST: This son of Uncle Mo parlayed a January Aqueduct maiden victory over a good track into a February upset in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. He returned in March to finish third from the disadvantaged 14 post in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, also at Fair Grounds. Both of his victories have come when he’s been on or near the early lead. However, both of those races had slow early paces. Things should get somewhat livelier up front in the Belmont, but not torrid. There really isn’t much early speed in this race. Expect Tap It to Win, Basin and Tiz the Law to be among the early leaders. Modernist could be just off that early mix and will need to show he can close from a bit off the pace. MAX PLAYER: Based on breeding, this nearly unbeaten son of Honor Code has a right to continue to develop. He came up a half-length short of victory first time out at Parx at one mile and has won two subsequent starts. He last raced in the mile and one-eighth Grade 3 Withers on Feb. 1 and came home strongly to win by three and one-quarter lengths. He’s worked roughly every two weeks since then and posted a nice bullet five-furlong move on June 3 to signal readiness. Trainer Linda Rice reports that he has matured physically and mentally, and recognizes that this one needs to take another forward step to threaten in the Belmont Stakes. DR POST: Winner of two of three starts, Dr Post is an interesting Belmont participant. The son of Quality Road hails from the powerful Todd Pletcher stable and is on a roll with Gulfstream maiden and stakes victories in his last two starts. He’s taken serious money in all three lifetime starts—favored in each at $.50, $1.00 and $1.10-to-1. He’s got a close-up early running style, so he’s not as pace-dependent as others. Sure, this is a step up in competition for him, but he certainly has license to improve even more, especially for a trainer who wins races at Belmont Park with regularity. FARMINGTON ROAD: A stone closer, this son of Quality Road will need pace help up front to prop up his late kick. There doesn’t appear to be much speed in this lineup. Then again, the post-position draw could affect how the race is ridden and sometimes funny things happen. This colt’s only win came at Tampa Bay Downs in January. Since, he’s been close—second, beaten one-half length in the Oaklawn Stakes. He’s been worse than fourth just once in six starts and that was first out, going six furlongs at Belmont Park, so he might be a decent superfecta play at big odds. 1ST.COM/BET 4 BELMONT WAGERING FACTS By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events. WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS WINNING BELMONT POST POSITIONS (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) (Since 1905) Average Win Odds: 9.70-to-1 Post Wins Post Wins High Win Odds: 24.75-to-1 (Ruler On Ice, 2011) 1 24 8 6 Low Win Odds: .75-to-1 (American Pharoah, 2015) 2 12 9 4 Notable: 5 of the last 10 winners were 10-to-1 or more, including 3 15 10 2 Sir Winston a year ago. 4 10 11 3 5 15 12 1 Average Place Odds: 10.58-to-1 6 7 13 1 High Place Odds: 28-to-1 (Commissioner, 2014) 7 13* 14 0 Low Place Odds: 1.95-to-1 (Tacitus, 2019) *-Sir Winston (2019) Notable: The favorite has finished 2nd twice in the last 3 years (Tacitus, 2019; Irish War Cry, 2017). BELMONT WINNERS’ LAYOFFS LAST 10 YEARS Days Horse (Year) Average Show Odds: 13.29-to-1 28 Sir Winston (2019) High Show Odds: 24.75-to-1 (Medal Count, 2014) 21 Justify (2018) Low Show Odds: 2.20-to-1 (Orb, 2013) 35 Tapwrit (2017) Notable: Orb in 2013 was the last Belmont favorite to finish third.
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