Violence Erupts Again in Ambon

TOWARDS A LASTING PEACE IN NEPAL: THE CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES Asia Report N°99 – 15 June 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. CONSTITUTIONAL HISTORY .................................................................................. 3 A. THE RANA AND SHAH ERAS..................................................................................................3 B. THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC INTERLUDE AND THE PANCHAYAT ERA..........................................3 C. THE 1990 CONSTITUTION......................................................................................................4 III. THE STATUS OF THE 1990 CONSTITUTION ........................................................ 6 A. FROM DISSOLUTION TO DEUBA'S SECOND DISMISSAL...........................................................6 B. THE ROYAL COUP OF FEBRUARY 2005 .................................................................................7 C. TOWARDS A "ROYAL ROADMAP"?........................................................................................8 D. THE NEED FOR A DEMOCRATIC WAY OUT ..........................................................................11 IV. SUBSTANTIVE CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES........................................................ 12 A. THE MONARCHY.................................................................................................................12 B. SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXCLUSION OF ETHNIC AND CASTE GROUPS .................................13 C. SUB-NATIONAL GOVERNANCE............................................................................................14 D. ELECTORAL REFORM ..........................................................................................................16 E. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ..............................................................................................18 V. BREAKING THE STALEMATE: KEY ACTORS' POSITIONS .......................... 20 A. THE PALACE .......................................................................................................................20 B. NEPALI CONGRESS..............................................................................................................21 C. THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF NEPAL (UNIFIED MARXIST-LENINIST) ....................................22 D. OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES.................................................................................................23 E. THE MAOISTS .....................................................................................................................24 VI. THE OPTIONS FOR POLITICAL TRANSITION.................................................. 26 A. AN ALL-PARTY GOVERNMENT WITHOUT A PARLIAMENT ...................................................26 B. A GOVERNMENT FORMED AFTER NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS .................................27 C. A GOVERNMENT FORMED AFTER RESTORATION OF THE PARLIAMENT ELECTED IN 1999....28 D. THE "MAOIST ROADMAP"...................................................................................................31 VII. HOW CAN THE CONSTITUTION BE CHANGED? ............................................. 33 A. CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT..........................................................................................34 B. REFERENDUM .....................................................................................................................35 C. CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY .............................................................................................36 1. The South African constitutional process................................................................38 2. The Indian constituent assembly..............................................................................39 3. Implementing a constitutional assembly..................................................................39 VIII. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 41 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ...................................................................................................................42 B. KEY ARTICLES OF THE CONSTITUTION OF THE KINGDOM OF NEPAL, 1990..........................43 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................46 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA...............................................................47 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ...................................................................................49 Asia Report N°99 15 June 2005 TOWARDS A LASTING PEACE IN NEPAL: THE CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nepal is in the grip of a constitutional crisis. The willing to envisage greater change, although their policies drafters of the 1990 Constitution hailed it as "the best are still a subject of debate. constitution in the world", ending three decades of absolute monarchical rule by enshrining a multi-party Even before the royal coup, the 1990 Constitution had system under a constitutional monarchy. But the nine- been undermined by the May 2002 dissolution of year-old Maoist insurgency has cruelly exposed the parliament and King Gyanendra's repeated dismissals inherent weaknesses in that settlement, and the royal of prime ministers. Subsequent governments had little coup of 1 February 2005 has dealt it a near fatal blow. chance of conducting successful negotiations with the Constitutional change is a necessary, if not sufficient, Maoists as long as real power rested with the palace. element for producing lasting peace. The conflict's root If the king hoped that his unambiguous seizure of full causes can only be addressed by structural change in executive authority would bring the Maoist to talks, the state and its governance system. Constitutional he was mistaken. issues and the political means by which they are dealt with are crucial to a peace process. The re-introduction of democratic institutions remains central to establishing a government that can negotiate Unfortunately, there is no sign of agreement between with the Maoists and initiate a consensual process for the king, the political parties and the Maoists on key constitutional change. But the palace is more concerned topics. Three areas need to be considered: with consolidating royal rule, while a broader alliance of Kathmandu-centred interests has long opposed a more what substantive changes should be made to the equitable distribution of power. constitution? Although the role of the monarchy lies at the centre of constitutional discussions, other Three vehicles for breaking the political deadlock in important issues include democratic inclusion, sub- the capital remain: national government, electoral reform and civil- military relations; an all-party government without a parliament: the royal coup has increased the previously slim what is the vehicle for political transition? There likelihood that the mainstream political parties are various possible mainstream entities -- such as might manage to form such a government. But if an all-party government -- that could eventually it is constituted by royal fiat, it would lack the negotiate a transition but there are also Maoist legitimacy and authority to negotiate effectively and royal roadmaps; and with the Maoists; what is the process for modifying the constitution? a government formed after new parliamentary Amendment of the current constitution by elections: the Deuba government was tasked to parliament or through referendum has been hold parliamentary elections but this was never proposed but debate now centres on a constitutional realistic. The king has announced municipal assembly, a central Maoist demand which is now elections by April 2006 but there is no clear backed by mainstream parties and analysts. prospect of a general election; and Constitutional issues are at the crux of Nepal's military, a government formed after restoration of the political and social crises. The Maoists have called for parliament elected in 1999: the king or the Supreme radical restructuring of the state, including establishment Court could restore parliament, although neither of a republic, since the start of their insurgency in 1996. seems willing. This option was seen as a partisan The mainstream political parties opposed fundamental measure that brings no guarantees of effective revision of the constitution until recently but are now governance but it has now been endorsed by a coalition of mainstream parties. A parliament Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues Crisis Group Asia Report N°99, 15 June 2005 Page ii restored with the limited mandate to negotiate Allowing for easy subsequent amendment would enable with the Maoists on constitutional change might future adjustments. advance the peace process. For the time being, however, the royal roadmap -- thinly A government negotiating with the Maoists would have disguised by the rhetoric of "protecting the 1990 three basic options for constitutional change: parliamentary Constitution" -- appears to be one of systematically amendment via Article 116 of the 1990 Constitution; a dismantling multi-party democracy while pursuing a purely referendum; or a constitutional assembly. In Nepal, military strategy against the Maoists. The options for

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