2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Research Association at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, July 18-20, 2019, NYC, USA

Disclaimer

Participation of the list of co-sponsoring institutions (Center for Economic Policy Research, Swiss National Bank, Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, European , International Bank Research Network, , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Norges Bank, , Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea, Bank of Canada, Columbia University, International Monetary Fund, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, , Central , Financial Stability Board, Goethe University Frankfurt) in this event does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation or favoring endorsement of the views, opinions, products or services of the Central Bank Research Association or any other co-sponsor or other person or entity by any of the co-sponsoring institutions. All views expressed during CEBRA's 2019 annual meeting are strictly those of the authors, discussants, and other participants and not those of CEBRA, the co-sponsoring institutions or any other institutions.

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Friday, 19 July 2019, Venue: SIPA Columbia, 420 West 118th Street, New York, NY 8am – 9am Registration and Breakfast 9am – 10.55am Parallel Sessions I. including a High-level Panel on Cyber Risk and Financial Stability Chair: Patricia C. Mosser (Director, MPA in Economic Policy Management, Columbia SIPA) Speakers: Darrell Duffie (Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance at Stanford University) Benjamin Flatgard (Executive Director for Cybersecurity at JP Morgan Chase) Jason Healey (Senior Research Scholar at Columbia and Public Affairs and Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs) Christopher Wilson (Senior Financial Sector Expert at IMF) 10.55am – 11.05am Coffee Break 11.05am – 1pm Parallel Sessions II. including a High-level Panel on Technology and the Future of the Monetary and Financial System Chair: Raphael Auer (Principal Economist at BIS, President of CEBRA) Speakers: James Bullard (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Gary Gensler (Professor of Practice at MIT and Senior Advisor of the MIT Digital Currency Initiative (former Chairman of the U.S. CFTC)) Sam Kalyanam (Head of Financial Crimes and Compliance, IBM) 1pm – 2.30pm Poster Session I. and Lunch Break 2.30pm – 4.25pm Parallel Sessions III. 4.25pm – 4.30pm Coffee Break 4.30pm – 6.20pm Columbia SIPA Panel on Central Bank Independence Chair: Takatoshi Ito (Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University) Speakers: Jacob Frenkel (Chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, former Governor of the Bank of Israel) Haruhiko Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) Athanasios Orphanides (Professor of Practice at MIT, former Governor of the Central Bank of ) Eric Rosengren (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

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2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting: July 19-20 Program at Columbia SIPA 420 West 118th Street, Program: Friday July 19, SIPA Columbia University Room\session Altschul Auditorium, Room 417 Room 403 Room 407 Room 402B Room 410 Room 413 8am – 9am Registration (4th floor) and Breakfast (15th floor) 9am - 10.55am High-level Panel on Cyber Risk Session 27*: Understanding Market Based Session 14*: Chinese Macroeconomic Issues Session 6*: Competition, Prices and Inflation Session 16*: in the New Session 22: Integrated Monetary- and Parallel Sessions I. (4th floor) Finance and Non-bank Financial Institutions Normal Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability Chair: Organizer: Central Bank of Ireland Organizer: Federal Reserve Bank of San Organizer: Bank of Israel Organizer: Bank of Spain Organizer: International Monetary Fund Patricia C. Mosser (Director, MPA in Committee: Neil Killeen, Reamonn Lydon, Francisco - Center for Pacific Basin Studies Committee: Itamar Caspi and Sigal Ribon Committee: Oscar Arce, Galo Nuño, (IMF) Economic Policy Management, Kitty Moloney, Gerard O'Reilly (all Central Committee: Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel (both Bank of Israel) Alessandro Galesi, and Carlos Thomas (all Committee: Tobias Adrian and Gaston Gelos Bank of Ireland) (both FRB San Francisco) Bank of Spain) (both IMF) Columbia SIPA) Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low- Speakers: Empirical Network Contagion for US Financial Macroeconomic Effects of ’s Financial Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices A Model of Intermediation Money, Interest, Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Darrell Duffie (Dean Witter Institutions Policies Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, Banque de France and Prices Endogenous Risk Distinguished Professor of Finance Fernando Duarte, Fed NY (joint with Collin Tao Zha, Fed Atlanta (joint with Kaiji Chen) (joint with Juan Carluccio, Erwan Gautier) Saki Bigio, UCLA (joint with Yuliy Sannkiov) Pawel Zabczyk, IMF (joint with Tobias Adrian, Jones) Fernando Duarte, Nellie Liang) at Stanford University) Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in Firm Dynamics and Pricing under Customer Negative nominal interest rates and the bank Benjamin Flatgard (Executive Similar Investors China Capital Accumulation lending channel Digging Deeper – Evidence on the Effects of Director for Cybersecurity at JP Diane Pierret, HEC Lausanne (joint with Mark Spiegel, Fed San Francisco (joint with Pau Roldan, Bank of Spain (joint with Sonia Ragnar Juelsrud, Norges Bank (joint with Macroprudential Policies from a New Morgan Chase) Sascha Steffen, Co-Pierre Georg) Zheng Liu, Jingyi Zhang) Gilbukh) Gauti Eggertsson, Lawrence H Summers, Ella Database Getz Wold) Erlend Nier, IMF (joint with Zohair Alam, Jason Healey (Senior Research Stress testing market-based finance Corruption as Collateral More Amazon Effects: Online Competition Adrian Alter, Jesse Eiseman, Gaston Gelos, Scholar at Columbia and Public Benjamin King, BoE (joint with Pavel Min Ouyang, Tsinghua University (joint with and Pricing Behaviors Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Heedon Kang, Naixi Wang) Affairs and Adjunct Professor of Chichkanov, Graeme Douglas, Yordan Shengxing Zhang) Alberto Cavallo, Harvard University Environment International and Public Affairs) Georgiev, James Howa) John Roberts, Federal Reserve (joint with Ben Managing GDP tail risk Cyclical Dynamics of Trade Credit with Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence Bernanke, Mike Kiley) Thibaut Duprey, Bank of Canada (joint with Christopher Wilson (Senior Financial International Porfolio Debt and Special Production Networks For Large Retailers in Israel Alexander Ueberfeldt) Sector Expert at IMF) Purpose Entities: Evidence from Ireland Junjie Xia, Peking University (joint with Marco Bonomo, Insper Institute (joint with A large Central Bank Balance Sheet? Floor vs Peter McQuade, Central Bank of Ireland (joint Wukuang Cun, Vincenzo Quadrini, Qi Sun) Carlos Carvalho, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato) Corridor Systems in a New Keynesian A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions with Vahagn Galstyan, Eduardo Maqui) Environment and Macroprudential Policy Dominik Thaler, Banco de Espana (joint with Alp Simsek, MIT (joint with Ricardo Caballero) Oscar Arce, Galo Nuño, Carlos Thomas)

10.55am – 11.05am Coffee Break (6th floor) 11.05am - 1pm High-level Panel on Technology Session 28*: Post-implementation Session 9: International Trade and Session 7*: Inflation – Drivers and Dynamics Session 17*: Evolution of Monetary Policy Session 23*: Macroprudential Policies and Parallel Sessions II. (4th floor) Evaluations of the Financial Regulatory Macroeconomics Frameworks: Past, Present, and Future the Capital Flow Cycle and the Future of the Monetary Reforms and Financial System Organizer: CEBRA ITM Research Program Organizer: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Organizer: Bank of Japan Organizer: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Chair: Organizer: Financial Stability Board (FSB) Committee: Sebastian Heise (FRB NY) and - Center for Inflation Research Committee: Shigenori Shiratsuka, Nao Sudo, (OeNB) Committee: Dietrich Domanski and Christian Joaquin Blaum (Brown University) Committee: Robert Rich and Raphael and Shingo Watanabe (all Bank of Japan) Committee: Helene Schuberth and Markus Raphael Auer (Principal Economist Schmieder (both FSB) Schoenle ( both FRB Cleveland) Eller (both OeNB) at BIS, President of CEBRA) The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Exchange Arrangements entering the 21st Speakers: Do the Basel III capital reforms reduce the Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Sticky prices and the transmission mechanism Century: Which anchor will hold? Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention James Bullard (President of the implicit subsidy of systemically important Costs? of monetary policy: A minimal test of New Ethan Ilzetzki, LSE (joint with Carmen of Macroprudential and ? Australian evidence George Alessandria, University of Rochester Keynesian models Reinhart, Ken Rogoff) Measures Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) James Cummings, Macquarie University (joint (joint with Horag Choi) Guido Ascari, University of Oxford (joint with Eugenio Cerutti, IMF (joint with Haonan Gary Gensler (Professor of Practice with Yilian Guo) Timo Haber) The first twenty years of the European Central Zhou) at MIT and Senior Advisor of the Discussant: Skander von den Heuvel Protectionism and the Business Cycle Bank: monetary policy Discussant: Jon Frost, Financial Stability Board MIT Digital Currency Initiative (FedBoard) Matteo Cacciatore, HEC Montreal (joint with The Role of Expectations in Changed Inflation Philipp Hartmann, ECB (joint with Frank Alessandro Barattieri, Fabio Ghironi) Dynamics Smets) Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the (former Chairman of the U.S. CFTC)) The Anatomy of the area John Roberts, Federal Reserve (joint with Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability? Sam Kalyanam (Head of Financial Swap Market Trade shocks and credit reallocation Damjan Pfajfar) Identifying Quantitative and Qualitative Christian Friedrich, Bank of Canada (joint with Crimes and Compliance, IBM) Silvia Dalla Fontana, USI Lugano (joint with Fadi Hassan, (joint with Veronica Monetary Policy Shocks T. Ahnert, K. Forbes, Dennis Reinhardt) Marco Holz auf der Heide, Loriana Pelizzon, Rappoport, Stefano Federico) Raising the Target: How Much Extra Room Masahiko Shibamoto, Kobe University (joint Discussant: Etienne Lepers, OECD Martin Scheicher) Does It Really Give? with Kiyotaka Nakashima, Koji Takahashi) Discussant: Florian Heider (ECB) Volatility Risk Pass-Through Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Brandeis University (joint Capital Flows and the Stabilizing Role of Mariano Croce, Bocconi University (joint with with Raphael Schoenle) Monetary policy and financial boom-bust Macroprudential Policies in Europe Regulatory Changes and Bank Equity Risk: Riccardo Colacito, Yang Liu, Ivan cycles: The reaction function channel Markus Eller, OeNB (joint with Niko The CAPM Cost of Capital and Lending Supply Shaliastovichy) Time Varying Volatility as a Source of Paul Hubert, Sciences Po (joint with Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Helene Anna Kovner, Fed NY Overreactions Andrew Filardo, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul) Schuberth) Discussant: Erlend Nier (IMF) Julio Ortiz, Boston University Discussant: Ursula Vogel, Deutsche Bundesbank th 1pm-2.30pm Poster Session I. and Lunch Break (15 floor)

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Poster Session I: Friday, 19 July 2019, 1pm-2.30pm, SIPA Columbia University, 15th floor

Cristina Conflitti, Banca d'Italia (joint with Roberta Zizza) What's behind firms' inflation forecasts?

Jonathan Hoddenbagh, Johns Hopkins University A New Test of Fiscal Dominance

Anne-Caroline Hüser, (joint with Inaki Aldasoro, Christoffer Kok) Contagion Accounting

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Ruth Judson, Federal Reserve Board (Ayelen Banegas, Charles Sims, Viktors Stebunovs) A shelter from bouts of uncertainty: U.S.banknotes as safe asset

Galina Potjagailo, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (joint with Maik H. Wolters) Global Financial Cycles since 1880

Viktors Stebunovs, Federal Reserve Board (joint with Seung Jung Lee, Lucy Qian Liu) Risk-Taking Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy in the Global Market for U.S. Dollar Corporate Lo

Joris Tielens, /KU Leuven (joint with Frank Smets, Jan Van Hove) Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics

Rebecca Stuart, Central Bank of Ireland Could a large scale asset purchase programme have mitigated the Great Depression?

Soohyon Kim, The Bank of Korea (joint with Ki Young Park, Youngjoon Lee) Deciphering Monetary Policy Committee Minutes through Text Mining Approach: The Case of Korea

Hongyi Chen, Hong Kong Monetary Authority (joint with Peter Tillmann, Ran Li) Pushing on a String: State-Owned Enterprises and Monetary Policy Transmission in China

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Program: Friday July 19, 2.30pm-6pm, SIPA Columbia University Room\session Room 324 Room 403 Room 407 Room 402B Room 410 Room 413 2.30pm - 4.25pm Session: Technology and financial disruption Session 29*: Market Liquidity and Financial Session 10: Capital Flows and Exchange Session 8*: Micro Price Setting and Inflation Session 19*: Central Bank Communication Session 24: Banking: Monetary and Macro- Parallel Sessions III. (4th floor) – Session organized by BIS-CEBRA Market Regulation Rates Dynamics and Credibility Prudential policy Innovation Research Network Organizer: SAFE/Goethe University Frankfurt Organizer: CEBRA IFM Research Program Organizer: (ECB) - DG Organizer: Bank of Korea - Economic Organizer: Federal Reserve Bank of Physical frictions and digital banking Committee: Ester Faia and Loriana Pelizzon Committee: Galina Hale (FRB San Francisco) Research Research Institute Minneapolis adoption (both SAFE/Goethe University Frankfurt) and Linda Goldberg (FRB New York) Committee: Luca Dedola (ECB) Committee: Jaerang Lee, Ahn Byung Kwun, Committee: Javier Bianchi (FRB Minneapolis) Hyun-Soo Choi, Kaist College of Business Byoung-Ki Kim, and Hwan-Koo Kang (all Bank (joint with Roger K. Loh) Re-use of collateral: leverage, volatility and Mussa Puzzle Redux The Pass-through of Large Cost Shocks in an of Korea) Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises welfare Dmitry Mukhin, Yale University (joint with Inflationary Economy Javier Bianchi, Fed Minneapolis BigTech and the changing structure of Michael Grill, ECB (joint with Johannes Oleg Itskhoki) Andy Neumeyer, Universidad Torcuato (joint Central Bank Transparency with a Financial financial intermediation Brumm, Felix Kubler, Karl Schmedders) with Fernando Alvarez) Stability Objective Twin Defaults and Bank Risk Taking Jon Frost, Financial Stability Board (joint with Discussant: Alexandros Vardoulakis, Federal Global Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit David Arsenau, Federal Reserve Board of Caterina Mendicino, ECB (joint with Kalin Leonardo Gambacorta, Yi Huang, Hyun Song Reserve Board Conditions The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in Governors Nikolov, Rubio Ramirez, Javier Suarez, Shin, and Pablo Zbinden) Friederike Niepmann, Federal Reserve (joint a Heterogeneous Production Economy Discussant: Marek Jarocinski, ECB Dominik Supera) FX Liquidity and Market Metrics: New Results with Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr) Raphael Schoenle, FRB Cleveland (joint with Digital Currency Price Dynamics: Sentiments Using CLS Bank Settlement Data Ernesto Pasten, Michael Weber) Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises: the Macroprudential Arrangements for Currency Versus Mining Competition Richard Levich, NYU Stern (joint with Joel Towards a New Monetary Theory of Exchange Role of Information Shocks Unions Emanuel Moench, Deutsche Bundesbank Hasbrouck) Rate Determination Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Marek Jarocinski, ECB (joint with Peter Julien Bengui, Universite de Montreal (joint (joint with Ester Faia, Sören Karau, Nora Discussant: Yalin Gündüz, Deutsche Andrej Sokol, ECB Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu- Karadi) with Sushant Acharya, Louphou Coulibaly) Lamersdorf) Bundesbank (joint with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Michael Cost Model Discussant: Yossi Saadon, Bank of Israel TBC Kumhof, Gregory Thwaites) Erwan Gautier, Banque de France (joint with Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset The Roles of Alternative Data and Machine Pledged Collateral Markets' Role in Hervé Le Bihan) How does the Fed manage interest rate Price Bubbles Learning in Fintech Lending: Evidence from Transmission to Short-term Market Rates Dealer Leverage and Exchange Rate: expectations? Nina Biljanovska, IMF (joint with Lucyna the Lending Club Manmohan Singh and Rohit Goel, both IMF Heterogeneity Across Intermediaries Price Selection Robin Tietz, Harvard University and Cass Gornicka, Alexandros Vardoulakis) Jalupa Jagtiani, Federal Reserve Bank of Discussant: Zorka Simon, SAFE Laurie DeMarco, Federal Reserve (joint with Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada (joint with Business School Philadelphia (joint with Cathy Lemieux) Ricardo Correa) Carlos Carvalho) Discussant: Julien Pinter, Charles University

4.25pm – 4.30pm Coffee Break (6th floor) 4.30pm – 6.20pm Columbia SIPA Panel on Central Bank Independence, Venue: Altschul Auditorium, Room 417 th Columbia SIPA Panel (4 floor) Chair: Takatoshi Ito (Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, Research Associate at NBER) Speakers: Jacob Frenkel (Chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, former Governor of the Bank of Israel) Haruhiko Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) Athanasios Orphanides (Professor of Practice at MIT, former Governor of the ) Eric Rosengren (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

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Saturday July 20, SIPA Columbia University Room\session Room 324 Room 403 Room 407 Room 402B Room 410 Room 413 8.30am-10.25am Session 1: Digital Currencies and Fintec: Session 30: Bank Organizational Structures Session 11*: Global Financial Conditions: Session 15*: Housing and the Session 18*: Monetary Policy Frameworks Session 25: Monetary Policy and th Policy Implications and Risk Taking Transmission Channels and Policy Options Macroeconomy Macrofinance Parallel Sessions IV. (4 floor) Organizer: Bank of Canada Organizer: Center for Economic Policy Organizer: International Bank Research Organizer: ECB - International Policy Analysis Organizer: Norges Bank Committee: Anthony Landry (Bank of Organizer: CEBRA MPMF Research Program Research (CEPR) - Digital Currencies and Network (IBRN) Division Committee: Knut Are Aastveit and Andrè K. Canada) Committee: David Lopez-Salido (Federal Fintech Network Committee: Claudia Buch (Deutsche Committee: Georgios Georgiadis and Fabrizio Anundsen (both Norges Bank) Reserve Board) Committee: Antonio Fatas (CEPR & INSEAD) Bundesbank) and Linda Goldberg (FRB New Venditti (both ECB) Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS York) How Auctions Amplify House-Price Carlos Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil (joint State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: Beyond the doomsday economics of "proof- The Global Capital Flows Cycle: Structural Fluctuations with Fernanda Nechio, Tiago Tristao) the Refinancing Channel of-work" in cryptocurrencies CEO Incentives and Bank Risk over the Drivers and Transmission Channels Alina Arefeva, University of Wisconsin Arlene Wong, Princeton University (joint with Raphael Auer, BIS Business Cycle Maurizio Habib, ECB (joint with Fabrizio Monetary Policy and the Limits to Arbitrage: Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo) Tanseli Savaser, Vassar College (joint with Venditti) Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in Insights from a New Keynesian Preferred Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Steven Ongena, Elif Şişli Ciamarra) regional housing markets Habitat Model Taking Away the Punch Bowl: Monetary Demonetization Global European banks and dollar Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank (joint with Walker Ray, UC Berkeley Policy and Financial Instability Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Harvard University Holding Company Affiliation and Risk: (co)dependence: how housing markets André Kallåk Anundsen) Kevin Sheedy, School of Economics (joint with Gita Gopinath, Prachi Mishra, Evidence from the US Banking Sector became internationally synchronized Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Abhinav Narayanan) Consuelo Silva Buston, Pontifica Universidad Alexander Raabe, Graduate Institute Geneva How Does Mortgage Rate Refinancing Affect Lower Bound Quantitative Tightening Catolica de Chile (joint with Radoslav Raykov) (joint with Torsten Ehlers, Mathias Hoffmann) Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Kevin Lansing, Fed San Francisco Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Federal Reserve Bank FinTech Disruption, Payment Data, and Bank Evidence from Expansionary and of St. Louis (joint with Vadim Elenev, Daniel L. Information The fire-sale channels of universal banks in Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle Contractionary Monetary Policy Episodes On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near- Greenwald) Uday Rajan, University of Michigan (joint with the European sovereign debt crisis Zhengyang Jiang, Northwestern University Katya Kartashova, Bank of Canada (joint with Cashless Economies Christine A. Parlour, Haoxiang Zhu) Patrick Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank (joint (joint with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Xiaoqing Zhou) Ricardo Lagos, NYU (joint with Shengxing Active monetary or fiscal policy and stock- with Giulio Bagattini, Falko Fecht) Lustig) Zhang) bond correlation On the Equivalence of Public and Private Ji Zhang, Tsinghua University PBC School of Money Is Size Everything? Global Liquidity and the Impairment of Local Finance (joint with Erica X.N. Li, Tao Zha, Hao Dirk Niepelt, Study Center Gerzensee & Asani Sakar, Federal Reserve Bank of New Monetary Policy Transmission Zhou) University of Bern (joint with Markus York (joint with Samuel Antill) Salih Fendoglu, Central Bank of the Republic Brunnermeier) of Turkey (joint with Eda Gulsen, Jose-Luis Peydro) 10.25am-10.35am Coffee Break (6th floor) 10.35am-12.30pm Session 2*: Cryptoassets and Financial Session 31: Regulation and Financial Session 12: International Spillovers of Session 4*: Lessons from Financial History Session 20: Policy Analysis with Boundedly Session 26*: Sovereign Risk and Financial th Innovation Intermediation - Empirics Macroprudential and Monetary Policies Rational Expectations Crises Parallel Sessions V. (4 floor)

Organizer: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Organizer: CEBRA Organizer: International Bank Research Organizer: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Organizer: Columbia University Organizer: Deutsche Bundesbank Committee: Thomas Moser, Sébastien Committee: Philipp Schnabl (NYU Stern) Network (IBRN) Committee: David Wheelock (FRB St. Louis) Committee: Michael Woodford (Columbia Committee: Kartik Anand, Jochen Mankart, Kraenzlin, and Marcel Savioz (all SNB) Committee: Robert Hills (Bank of England) University) and Emanuel Moench (all Bundesbank) Bank competition for wholesale funding: and Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France) Global Trends in Interest Rates Blockchain Economics evidence from corporate deposits Marco Del Negro, NY Fed (joint with Sticky Expectations and Consumption Sovereign Debt Maturity Structure and its Markus Brunnermeier, Princeton University Andreas Barth, SAFE and Goethe University The elusive gains from inward-looking Domenico Giannone, Marc P. Giannoni, Dynamics Costs (joint with Joseph Abadi) (joint with Iñaki Aldasoro, Florian Balke, monetary policy Andrea Tambalotti) Edmund Crowley, Johns Hopkins University Flavia Corneli, Bank of Italy Egemen Eren) Martin Bodenstein, Federal Reserve Board (joint with Chris Carroll, Jirka Slacalek, Kiichi Discussant: Igor Livshits, Fed Philadelphia Vector Error Correction models to measure (joint with Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri) Why so low for so long? A long-term view of Tokuoka, Matthew White) connectedness of bitcoin exchange markets The Limits of Shadow Banks Discussant: Michele Lenza (ECB) real interest rates Real Effects of Financial Distress: The Role of Paolo Pagnottoni, University of Pavia (joint Tomasz Piskorski, Columbia Business School Mikael Juselius, (joint with Optimal monetary policy, least squares Heterogeneity with Paolo Giudici) (joint with Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Amit ECB spillovers and domestic monetary Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, Phurichai learning, and the zero bound to interest rates Sudipto Karmakar, Bank of England (joint Seru) policy effectiveness in small open Rungcharoenkitkul) Petr Harasimovic, Loughborough University with Francisco Buera) Flight to Bitcoin economies (joint with Anthony Yates) Discussant: Enrico Mallucci, Fed Board Gloria Yu, Singapore Management University Supra-(national) Supervision Saskia ter Ellen, Norges Bank (joint with Valuation and return of Italian housing (joint with Jinyuan Zhang) Shikhar Singla, London Business School and Edvard Jansen, Nina L. Midthjell) market: an historical perspective Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk SAFE (joint with Rainer Haselmann, Vikrant Discussant: TBD Paolo Piselli, Bank of Italy (joint with Alberto Policy Ignasio Presno, Federal Reserve Bank (joint Periodic Table of Cryptocurrencies - Vig) Baffigi) Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board (joint with Javier Bianchi, Pablo Ottonello) Blockchain Categorization For Whom the Levy Tolls: The Case of a with Colin Caines) Discussant: Huixin Bi, Fed Kansas City Aleksandar Arsov, Union Nikola Tesla “Inspect what you expect to get respect”: Can Macroprudential Stability Levy in The Origination and Distribution of Money University bank supervisors kill zombie lending? JaeBin Ahn, National University (joint Market Instruments: Sterling Bills of Exchange Household Expectations and the Credit Cycle Diana Bonfim, and Catolica with Young-ju Kim, Hyunjoon Lim) during the First Globalization Cristina Angelico, Bank of Italy, Bocconi Lisbon SBE (joint with Geraldo Cerqueiro, Discussant: Stefan Avdjiev (BIS) Stefano Ugolini, University of Toulouse, University Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena) Sciences Po Toulouse and LEREPS (joint with Olivier Accominotti, Delio Lucena) 12.30pm-2pm Poster Session II. and Lunch Break (15th floor)

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Poster Session II: Saturday, 20 July, 12.30pm-2pm, SIPA Columbia University, 15th floor

Jenny Chan, UPF Monetary Policy and Sentiment Driven Fluctuations

Mary Everett, Central Bank of Ireland (joint with Peter McQuade, Michael O'Grady) Bank business models as a driver of cross-border activities

Fernanda Guardado, PUC-Rio (joint with Tiago Berriel) How Low Can Central Banks Go? The Banking Threshold to Negative Interest Rates

Yuko Imura, Bank of Canada Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

Xiang Li, Halle Institute of Economic Research (joint with Yiping Huang and Chu Wang) The Risk-taking Channel of Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Lending

Davide Porcellacchia, European Central Bank Optimal Negative Interest on Reserves

Martin Seneca, Bank of England (joint with Richard Harrison, Matt Waldron) Monetary policy options in a `low for long' era

Lina Lu, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (joint with Matthew Pritsker, Andrei Zlate, Ken Anadu, Jim Bohn) Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension Funds

Caroline Mehigan, Central Bank of Ireland (joint with Etienne Lepers) Foundations, Fences, and Fire Doors: Financial Policies, Capital Flows and Financial Stability

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Saturday July 20, SIPA Columbia University Room\session Room 324 Room 403 Room 407 Room 402B Room 410 Room 413 2pm-3.55pm Session 3*: Digital Currency Economics and Session 31: Regulation and Financial Session 13*: Business Cycles in Open Session 5: Policy Lessons from Central Session 21: Nominal Wage Rigidity and Session: Topics in Macroeconomics and Parallel Sessions VI. (4th floor) Policy Intermediation – Theory Economies Banking History Monetary Policy International Finance

Organizer: Asian Bureau of Finance and Organizer: CEBRA Organizer: Sveriges Riksbank Organizer: CEBRA Organizer: Columbia University Organizer: CEBRA Economic Research (ABFER) Committee: Philipp Schnabl (NYU Stern) Committee: Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank) Committee: Federico Barbiellini Amidei (Bank Committee: Stefanie Schmitt-Grohé Committee: Allaudeen Hameed (National of Italy), Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy), Gianni (Columbia University) Short-term planning, Monetary Policy, and University of Singapore (NUS)), Johan Variation margins, fire sales, and Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Toniolo (LUISS), and David Wheelock (FRB St Macroeconomic Persistence Sulaeman (NUS), and Giorgio Valente (Hong information-constrained optimality Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Louis) Gains from Wage Flexibility and the Zero David Lopez-Salido, Fed Board Kong Monetary Authority) Florian Heider, ECB (joint with Bruno Biais, Market Shocks Lower Bound Marie Hoerova) Robert Kollmann, Université Libre de Regimes of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Roberto Billi, Sveriges Riksbank (joint with International Capital Flow Pressures Pitfalls of Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work Protocol: Bruxelles & CEPR (joint with Massimo England during the French Wars (1793-1821) Jordi Galí) Linda Goldberg, Fed New York Mining Arms Race and Tendency Towards The Welfare Effects of Bank Liquidity and Giovannini, Stefan Hohberger, Marco Ratto, Christophe Chamley, Boston University (joint Discussant: Yoon J. Jo, Columbia University Centralization Capital Requirements Werner Roeger, Lukas Vogel) with Pamfili Antipa) Corporate Spreads, Sovereign Spreads, and Agostino Capponi, Columbia University (joint Skander Van den Heuvel, Federal Reserve Discussant: Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the Crises with Agostino Capponi) Board Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small University United States Galina Hale, Fed San Francisco Open Economies Yoon J. Jo, Columbia University Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing Optimal Bank Regulation in the Presence of Tommaso Monacelli, Bocconi University (joint Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Discussant: Gernot Mueller, University of Ties that Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Matthieu Bouvard, McGill University (joint Credit and Run Risk with Luca Sala, Daniele Siena) Wind? Quasi-experimental Evidence from Tuebingen Interest for Small Open Economies with Bruno Biais, Christophe Bisiere, Alexandros Vardoulakis, Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Policy Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Catherine Casamatta, Albert Menkveld) Board (joint with Anil Kashyap, Dimitrios Understanding Global Confidence Cycles Kilian Rieder, University of Oxford and WU Government Spending, Downward Nominal (joint with Valerie Grossman, Enrique Tsomocos) Jongrim Ha, World Bank (joint with Raju Vienna Wage Rigidity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics Martínez-García & Ren Zhang) Managing Tokenized Platforms Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska L. Discussant: David Wheelock, Fed St. Louis Gernot Mueller, University of Tuebingen Neng Wang, Columbia University (joint with Bank Capital Forbearance Ohnsorge, Naotaka Sugawara) (joint with Benjamin Born, Francesco Ye Li, Will Cong) Natalya Martynova, Deutsche Bundesbank Why the Bank of England Ignored Bagehot: D'Ascanio, Johannes Pfeifer) (joint with Javier Suarez, Enrico Perotti) Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity the Barings Crisis of 1890 Revisited Discussant: Roberto Billi, Sveriges Riksbank Bitcoin as Decentralized Money: Prices, Nils Gornemann, Fed Board (joint with Felipe Eugene White, Rutgers University Mining, and Network Security Saffie, Pablo Guerron-Quintana) Discussant: Federico Barbiellini, Bank of Italy Emiliano Pagnotta, Imperial College Business School

4pm-5.30pm BIS Panel on Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Frameworks, Altschul Auditorium, Room 417 th BIS Panel (4 floor) Chair: Boris Hofmann (Research Adviser at BIS) Speakers: Viral Acharya (Deputy Governor at the ) Carlos Viana de Carvalho (Deputy Governor at the Central Bank of Brazil) Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (Neil Moskowitz Endowed Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland) 5.30pm-6.15pm CEBRA Annual Meeting, Room 1501 followed by a reception, hosted by CEBRA

* sponsored sessions

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