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Climate and Disaster Resilience (Technical Report) Australia’s National Science Agency Climate and Disaster Resilience Technical Report July 2020 Climate and Disaster Resilience | i Citation Climate and Disaster: Technical Reports (2020). CSIRO, Australia. Copyright © Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 2020. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved, and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. CSIRO is committed to providing web accessible content wherever possible. If you are having difficulties with accessing this document please contact [email protected]. Photo credits Front Cover Regrowth after bushfire – Dan Metcalfe Chapter title images: Chapter 1 Brisbane Floods – Erik Veland www.flickr.com https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 Chapter 2 Tropical Cyclone Tasha – Dan Metcalfe Chapter 3 Mahon Pool – Robert Montgomery www.flickr.com https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 Chapter 4 Indigenous Landscape burn – Firesticks Alliance Chapter 6 Lighting storm - texaus1 www.flickr.com https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 ii | CSIRO Australia’s National Science Agency Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 7 1 Scope and context ......................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Scope of the Final report ................................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Disasters in a climate change context ............................................................................................. 14 1.3 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 21 1.4 Chapter 1 References....................................................................................................................... 21 2 Scenarios, models and early warning systems .............................................................................................. 24 2.1 Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Opportunities for improvement ...................................................................................................... 24 2.3 Climate and Earth System Modelling and information from weather to climate change scales. ... 25 2.4 Manual bushfire spread prediction tools ........................................................................................ 31 2.5 Automated bushfire prediction tools .............................................................................................. 33 2.6 New information products such as a national fire map .................................................................. 35 2.7 Implementing a new Australian national fire danger rating system ............................................... 35 2.8 Chapter 2 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 36 2.9 Chapter 2 References....................................................................................................................... 36 2.10 Appendix Planning for marine heatwaves around Australia ........................................................... 39 3 Frameworks and harmonisation ................................................................................................................... 47 3.1 Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Opportunities for improvement ...................................................................................................... 48 3.3 The growing need for harmonised and coordinated approaches to climate and disaster resilience and adaptation ................................................................................................................................. 49 3.4 Existing approaches to climate and disaster resilience and adaptation .......................................... 50 3.5 Learning from exemplary approaches to climate and disaster risk reduction, resilience and adaptation ........................................................................................................................................ 58 3.6 Summary of key findings and priority needs for harmonisation ..................................................... 72 3.7 Strategies for implementing opportunities for improvement ......................................................... 74 3.8 Chapter 3 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 76 3.9 Chapter 3 References....................................................................................................................... 76 4 Empowering Indigenous leadership in cultural burning and natural disaster recovery and resilience measures ............................................................................................................................................... 81 4.1 Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 81 4.2 Opportunities for improvement ...................................................................................................... 82 4.3 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 83 4.4 Growing government and industry support for Indigenous cultural burning and bushfire recovery planning ........................................................................................................................................... 84 4.5 Short- and long-term actions to empower Indigenous leadership, cultural burning and land management practices to prevent future bushfire events .............................................................. 85 4.6 Short- and long-term actions to empower Indigenous leadership, cultural burning and land management practices to respond to disasters such as bushfire events ........................................ 88 4.7 Short- and long-term actions to empower Indigenous leadership, cultural burning and land management practices to recover and build resilience after bushfire events ................................ 89 4.8 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 91 4.9 Chapter 4 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 91 4.10 Chapter 4 References....................................................................................................................... 92 4.11 Appendix – Short- and long-term actions to empower indigenous leadership ............................... 99 Climate and Disaster Resilience | iii 5 Hazard reduction efficacy, implementation and impacts ........................................................................... 107 5.1 Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 107 5.2 Opportunities for improvement .................................................................................................... 108 5.3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 109 5.4 Bushfire fuels ................................................................................................................................. 110 5.5 Fireline intensity ............................................................................................................................ 113 5.6 Hazard Reduction ........................................................................................................................... 116 5.7 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 138 5.8 Chapter 5 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... 139 5.9 Chapter 5 References..................................................................................................................... 139
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